Orioles Notes: Duffy, Machado, Duquette
Perhaps the Orioles‘ willingness to trade Manny Machado isn’t a death sentence to their 2018 playoff aspirations. Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports that although Baltimore is trying to trade their third baseman by the end of the week, they’re also “strongly pursuing” Royals starter Danny Duffy. It seems they could be looking to use a Machado trade as a means of retooling their major league roster, rather than go for an altogether rebuild. It’s all conjecture at this point, but in any case, the Orioles are in desperate need of good pitching, and although the southpaw Duffy spent some time on the DL last season, he posted quality results while on the mound despite a drop in strikeout rate from previous years. For the 2017 season, Duffy had a 3.81 ERA across 24 games started. Fangraphs estimated his value at 3.4 WAR.
A couple more items out of Camden Yards…
- Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com speaks at length about the Orioles in a video. At one point, he gives his insight on the dramatic shift in the O’s mindset regarding Manny Machado. “As late as Monday night, I talked to an Orioles official who said it was probably less than zero percent that Manny Machado would be traded before Opening Day,” Connolly says in the video. “And then… bam, everything changed.” Connolly wonders if perhaps the Orioles went into the winter meetings thinking that they had a great chance of improving their starting pitching (he mentions Mike Fiers and Tyler Chatwood as possible targets), but then felt disheartened when they watched their top choices go off the board. Since the Orioles don’t have the budget to play in “the stratosphere” of Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, they may have needed a new and bold strategy to get the pitching they’ll require to compete. One incredibly important disclaimer: Connolly admits he’s only speculating. Still, from my perspective, his logic adds up.
- Speaking of Machado, Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette says he’ll consider dealing the prized third baseman even to an AL East division rival (via a piece by Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun). Encina notes that the Yankees have shown interest in acquiring Machado, and I’d add that their farm system has some talented young pitching that could help the Orioles’ rotation. Baltimore isn’t a stranger to intra-divisional trades; as Encina points out, the O’s acquired Tim Beckham from the Rays at this past year’s trade deadline. He also includes quotes wherein Duquette mentions acquiring Andrew Miller from the Red Sox and Richard Bleier from the Yankees. Of course, none of these trades compare in magnitude to a hypothetical Machado swap, but it’s interesting to learn that Duquette is leaving the door wide open to this possibility. “I think you have to look at the entire market if you’re going to accurately assess the market,” he said in a video interview with the Baltimore Sun. “And the entire market would include teams in the American League East that we compete against.”
Several Teams Have Reportedly Made Offers For Manny Machado
THURSDAY, 2:53am: Nightengale reports in another tweet that the Orioles are “moving aggressively” on trade talks involving Machado, noting that Baltimore believes they can move him by the end of the week.
THURSDAY, 12:47am: Contrary to Rosenthal’s earlier report, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports via Twitter that the Cardinals have a “strong offer” in place for Machado, though it’s reportedly not as strong as White Sox‘ proposal.
THURSDAY, 12:20am: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (insider subscription required and recommended) reports that the White Sox have been the “most aggressive” suitor for Machado. Their goal seems to be to acquire him and attempt to extend him for the long term. Bob Nightengale adds in a tweet that the offer from Chicago was “the best offer of the dozen offers the Orioles have received.”
Rosenthal also notes that the Giants offered the Orioles a package that included Christian Arroyo. The Cardinals also asked about Machado, but the price was apparently too steep for them.
WEDNESDAY, 7:53pm: It doesn’t appear that a Machado trade will come together during the Winter Meetings, Encina writes.
6:30pm: Several teams have made formal trade offers for Machado, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. The Yankees’ chances of landing him are near zero, a source told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It seems the Yankees would want to include Jacoby Ellsbury in a a Machado deal to help them stay under the competitive-balance tax threshold, but Sherman doubts he’d waive his no-trade clause to go to Baltimore (Twitter link).
4:33pm: The Orioles are “making good progress” toward a Machado trade, Duquette told Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com and other reporters, though Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes that a deal doesn’t appear imminent. There are more than five teams in the running for Machado, Ghiroli adds. The Orioles met with a “couple” of those teams Wednesday, per Encina. Notably, Duquette hasn’t dismissed trading Machado to another AL East team, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays (all Twitter links here).
TUESDAY, 6:27pm: The Yankees and White Sox are also interested in Machado, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link). As mentioned below, Peter Angelos doesn’t want to deal Machado to New York, while the Sox are an interesting suitor that could be looking at Machado as the centerpiece of a return to contention. Cardinals GM Michael Girsch told Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that giving up significant assets for a star player with just one year of control remaining is “not a path we are likely to go down.” Interestingly, this description applies to both Machado and to another oft-mentioned Cards trade target in Josh Donaldson.
4:29pm: “Several clubs” asked the Orioles about Machado today, Dan Duquette told MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli (Twitter links), Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter links) and other media. There’s at least a possibility a trade happens, and the Orioles have apparently not discussed an extension with Machado in years, though new negotiations are “under consideration.” The O’s haven’t talked about giving any potential Machado trade partner a 72-hour window to try and negotiate their own extension with the infielder.
1:43pm: The Cardinals have interest in Machado, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The Phillies are said to be enamored of Machado, too, and there are no doubt a wide variety of other teams lining up to check on in the asking price. Baltimore is receiving a “ton” of interest in Machado, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets.
10:57am: While it’s been reported that the Orioles are at least willing to listen to offers on Manny Machado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic takes things a step further, reporting that the O’s have asked interested parties to make them offers for the star infielder (subscription required and highly recommended). The term “infielder” is of particular note, as Rosenthal also writes that Machado’s desire is to return to shortstop in 2018 whether he’s in Baltimore or with a new club.
Machado, 25, has long stood out as an on-paper trade candidate given his proximity to free agency and the Orioles’ lack of starting pitching. The O’s, who have been looking to add as many as three starters to their rotation this winter, will be hard-pressed to contend for an AL East title in 2018 (even more so in the wake of the Bronx Bombers’ acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton). With Machado set to hit the open market next winter in position to land a record-setting contract — assuming a healthy year, anything south of Stanton’s $325MM guarantee would seem to be a nonstarter — it’s difficult to envision him remaining in Baltimore. For the time being, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $17.3MM salary for Machado next year after his final trip through the arbitration process.
The Orioles, per Rosenthal, are aiming to acquire two controllable young starters in any trade for Machado. That’s a lofty ask for a lot of teams, but a win-now club with an ample supply of touted but unproven pitching could look at that as an acceptable price to pay for a player that has been worth better than five wins per season, on average, over the past half decade (despite missing 80 games due to injury in 2014). Notably, Rosenthal adds that owner Peter Angelos does not want to trade with the division-rival Yankees.
Machado didn’t have his best season in 2017, as he got off to a shockingly pedestrian start to the year. Through the season’s first three months, Machado was batting just .216/.289/.423 with an elevated (by his standards) 20.6 percent strikeout rate. Over the final three months, though, the Machado of old resurfaced, as he mashed at a .295/.329/.513 pace with a vastly improved 13.1 percent punchout rate.
Machado has two Gold Gloves and a Platinum Glove to his name at third base and has long graded out as an elite defender there, but there’s little doubt that he could still handle shortstop at an above-average level as well. He logged nearly 400 innings there in 2016, for instance, and drew generally positive marks from Ultimate Zone Rating (+1.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (+3).
From a broader perspective, Machado is one of several players entering his final year of team control in Baltimore. Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach are all free agents following the 2018 season, while Jonathan Schoop is controlled for just one year beyond that. Depending on how aggressively the O’s are willing to sell off parts, they could quickly restock their farm with an ample supply of talent by marketing more than one of their soon-to-be free agents, though doing so would also mean largely punting on the 2018 campaign at the very least.
FA Rumors: Nunez, CarGo, Gomez, Rondon, Reynolds, O’s
The latest free agent rumors:
- A variety of organizations are still looking at versatile infielder Eduardo Nunez. Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and “possibly” the Yankees are among the suitors. Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski acknowledged the interest, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe was among those to tweet. The Giants have some ongoing involvement, too, but Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports (via Twitter) that San Francisco is “a longshot” to make a deal.
- In addition to a host of other teams, the Astros have some interest in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, according to Heyman (Twitter links). The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have checked in not only on Gonzalez but also fellow free agent oufielder Carlos Gomez.
- The Nationals are interested in reliever Hector Rondon, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post tweets. Washington isn’t the favorite to land Rondon, according to Castillo, though he does note that the former Cub is familiar with manager Dave Martinez and bullpen coach Henry Blanco. Both men were on Chicago’s staff through last season.
- The Rangers and Red Sox each have some degree of interest in free agent first baseman Mark Reynolds, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. They join a few other clubs with interest, as we covered recently.
- The Orioles have made offers to several free agent pitchers, per Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com. It’s unclear whether longtime Oriole Chris Tillman is among that group, but the team did make an unsuccessful bid to re-sign him toward the end of last season, Ghiroli reports (Twitter link).
Pitching Rumblings: Twins, Darvish, Cishek, Cole, Mariners, Liriano, Watson
While the market for starters is still fairly slow to develop, relievers have been flying off the board at the Winter Meetings. Here’s the latest chatter on some hurlers from around the game:
- The Twins are sending signals that they’re serious about their pursuit of free agent righty Yu Darvish. As LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star-Tribune writes, skipper Paul Molitor says the organization has “targeted [Darvish] as somebody we have tremendous interest in.” That follows prior public indications of interest from GM Thad Levine, who, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press examines, has a longstanding relationship with Darvish. That piece is well worth a full read, if only for Berardino’s enjoyable chat with catcher Chris Gimenez, who worked closely with Darvish with the Rangers and has played most recently with the Twins.
- Meanwhile, the Twins are also among the teams looking into righty Steve Cishek, according to Berardino (via Twitter). The sidearmer has been left as one of the top remaining free-agent setup men after a spate of signings at the Winter Meetings. He finished the 2017 season on a strong run with the Rays.
- The Orioles have at least checked in on Pirates ace Gerrit Cole, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Certainly, Baltimore isn’t the only organization that would love to add Cole, whose name has arisen in chatter a few times in recent days. Whether the Bucs are really ready to deal him isn’t entirely clear; neither is it certain just what the club would seek in return. Yesterday, though, Buster Olney of ESPN.com gave perhaps the clearest indication yet that Pittsburgh may be prepared to strike an agreement, tweeting that there’s a belief from some around the game that Pittsburgh would pull the trigger if the right deal came across its desk.
- Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto says his team is in the “red zone” on a deal, likely for a reliever, in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio tweets that Juan Nicasio is a “strongly rumored possibility,” though clearly that’s not a firm connection at this point. And it’s certainly worth noting that the M’s have, in fact, struck agreement on a trade since Dipoto went on the air — though it’s not clear whether the minor acquisition was the one he was referring to. Perhaps Dipoto was giving a nod to that swap, but it’s also possible there’s a more significant move still in store. Regardless, the M’s are clearly focused on pitching, as Dipoto has made clear and TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- The Astros are weighing a reunion with lefty Francisco Liriano, according to Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Long a starter, the 34-year-old was added by the ‘Stros at the 2017 trade deadline and moved into a relief role. He did not exactly thrive in that job initially, allowing seven earned runs and posting an ugly 11:10 K/BB ratio in his 14 1/3 frames over twenty appearances. Liriano will presumably also draw some looks from organizations that would propose to give him a shot at rediscovering his form as a starter.
- Another lefty, Tony Watson, is a possible target for the Athletics, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The 32-year-old has plenty of late-inning experience and finished strong after a mid-season swap to the Dodgers. In twenty innings with L.A., Watson posted a 2.70 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
Trade & Free Agent Rumors: Red Sox, Machado, Phils, Frazier, Drury, Yanks, Avila, Catchers
Relievers are flying off the board, but movement on the position-player front has been near a standstill thus far. Here’s the latest on some available bats both on the trade and free-agent markets:
- The Red Sox called the Orioles about Manny Machado yesterday, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (Twitter link), and they’re also considering Todd Frazier as an option according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald (also via Twitter). Frazier is willing to play first base, according to Silverman, though an acquisition of Machado would presumably slide Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base or necessitate a more extreme move on the left side of the infield. Whether the O’s actually move Machado remains to be seen, but they’re reportedly shopping him and asking interested parties to make offers.
- The Phillies are intrigued by the possibility of a Machado trade but would want a negotiation window to discuss an extension to be included in any trade, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. However, Heyman hears that Machado isn’t likely to grant such a window when he’s just one year removed from reaching free agency at the age of 26. As things currently stand, Machado seems highly likely to have a case for a record-setting contract next winter, and there’s little incentive to discuss a long-term deal right now unless a team pays that rate in advance. Machado has already banked more than $23MM in his career between the draft and player salaries to date, and he’s projected by MLBTR to earn $17.3MM next year in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
- The Yankees have not only been in contact with the Diamondbacks about lefty Patrick Corbin, they’ve also discussed infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury in those talks, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman notes that multiple clubs have discussed Drury with the Snakes, but he’s a strong fit in the Bronx following trades of Chase Headley and Starlin Castro. The 25-year-old Drury has slashed .275/.323/.453 with 29 homers in 979 plate appearances across the past two seasons while playing second base, third base and left field. He’s controllable for another four seasons and won’t be arbitration-eligible until next winter.
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that the Nationals are considering backup catchers, including free agent Alex Avila (subscription required & highly recommended). Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post hears the same, tweeting that while the Nats do like young Pedro Severino, bringing a more proven backup catcher into the fold is something the club has discussed.
- Rosenthal also notes within that piece that the Giants, Blue Jays, Rangers and Twins are all looking for backup catchers as well. Any from that bunch could stand out as a reasonable landing spot for Avila, though he’s stated that his preference is to play for a contender even if it comes at the expense of some playing time. Jonathan Lucroy is the biggest name on the catching market but probably doesn’t wish to serve as a backup option; Rene Rivera, Nick Hundley and Chris Stewart are among the other available catchers.
AL East Notes: Sabathia, JDM, Frazier, Orioles
The Blue Jays met with C.C. Sabathia today, George A. King III of the New York Post reports (via Twitter). Toronto joins the Yankees and Angels as teams that have checked in on Sabathia to bolster the back of their rotations, eating innings and still delivering effective results at age 37. The Jays have a lot of uncertainty with the fifth spot in their rotation, and maybe even beyond that given the blister and fingernail problems that plagued Aaron Sanchez last season. There was some good news on that front today, however, as Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports that Sanchez played catch for the first time in three months and reported no issues with his finger.
More from the AL East…
- The Red Sox are focusing 90 percent of their offseason attention on J.D. Martinez, a source tells NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich. Martinez has been heavily rumored as a top Sox target, given his past ties to Dave Dombrowski, the lack of qualifying offer compensation tied to his signing, and the simple fact that he is the best power hitter on the market this winter. Dombrowski told reporters (including the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo) today that he had a specific name in mind to bolster the middle of Boston’s lineup, though no hints were given.
- After Chase Headley was dealt earlier today, speculation immediately arose that the Yankees could look to re-sign Todd Frazier. MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reported that Yankees GM Brian Cashman has been speaking with Frazier’s agent, though things don’t “appear hot at the moment” between the two sides, as per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman. As the New York Post’s Joel Sherman observes, one of the stumbling blocks is that Frazier is naturally looking for a multi-year deal, whereas the Yankees don’t want to lock up third base with prospect Miguel Andujar in the fold and a possible pursuit of Manny Machado coming next winter.
- The Orioles are getting interest in outfield prospects Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart, executive VP Dan Duquette told MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski. It isn’t known if the O’s are open to dealing any of these youngsters, though Duquette did say that “in our quest for pitching we have found that clubs like our outfielders,” which at least seems to hint that other clubs could be offering the Orioles some much-needed arms for the prospects. Of the trio, it would surprising to see Hays dealt for anything less than a big return, as he is considered the top prospect in Baltimore’s system and would become a contributor at the MLB level as early as next season.
Bullpen News & Rumors: Davis, Nats, Shaw, Rodney, Tigers, Mets, Reed, Givens
The reliever market is picking up steam, here are the latest updates…
- The Nationals are one of the suitors for Wade Davis, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter), though the team isn’t close to signing any relievers. D.C. hadn’t thought to have been looking for any major bullpen upgrades this winter after the team landed Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson last summer, though the combination of Davis with those two relievers would make for a formidable end-game trio. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post hears that the Nats haven’t yet officially started to go afte Davis, though several representatives for free agent relievers feel Davis is one of Washington’s top offseason targets.
- In another tweet from Janes, she reports that the Nationals weren’t in on Bryan Shaw, who agreed to a three-deal with the Rockies tonight.
- Fernando Rodney‘s name has been increasingly mentioned in recent days, with the Mets and Tigers the latest teams to express interest in the veteran reliever, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. New York and Detroit join the previously-reported Twins, Diamondbacks and Rangers as candidates for Rodney’s services. Rodney posted solid numbers as Arizona’s closer last season, and likely wouldn’t require a multi-year commitment given that he turns 41 in March. Detroit could install him at closer with Shane Greene moving back to a setup role, and Rodney could also become a trade chip for the rebuilding Tigers at the deadline. Rodney might not close with the Mets, but he would further augment a back-of-the-pen mix that includes Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos and Jerry Blevins.
- Speaking of Mets relief targets, the team is still in on Addison Reed, Newsday’s Marc Carig tweets.
- The Orioles are receiving lots of calls on Mychal Givens, Dan Duquette tells Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun and other reporters. The hard-throwing Givens has posted strong numbers in his first three big league seasons and is still a year away from arbitration eligibility, so it isn’t any surprise that he is a popular target. Of course, he also has great value to an O’s team that likely prefers to unload costlier relievers like Zach Britton or Brad Brach if they do choose to make a bullpen trade.
- Francisco Rodriguez is hoping to keep pitching for his 17th big league season, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman writes. After years as an effective closer, K-Rod suffered through a disastrous 2017 campaign that saw him post a 7.82 ERA over 25 1/3 IP for the Tigers. He pitched in the Nationals’ farm system on a minor league deal before being released last July.
NL Central Notes: Davis, Cards, Donaldson, Santana, Brewers, Bucs, Cole, Hamilton
The Cardinals are one of the teams interested in free agent closer Wade Davis, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). With St. Louis focusing on bullpen additions this winter, it only makes sense that they would check in on top-of-the-market names like Davis who could immediately step into the vacant closer role. In fact, Passan said the Cards are “prioritizing late-inning help” to go along with their other notable relief signing of Luke Gregerson. The Cardinals have been heavy players in the offseason rumor mill, connected to several big names on both the free agent and trade fronts, and GM Michael Girsch is “optimistic” (per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch) that the team is close to swinging a deal after progress was reportedly made in trade talks.
More from the NL Central…
- The Cardinals‘ Winter Meetings activities have also included talks with the Blue Jays about a Josh Donaldson deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). St. Louis has been rumored to be interested in Donaldson for some time, though there is still no indication that the Jays are considering moving the former AL MVP.
- Domingo Santana‘s name has been mentioned in trade talks, with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporting that the Brewers are actively shopping the outfielder rather than just listening to offers. ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick hears from one executive that the Brewers are trying to “sell high” on Santana, and that the market for his services isn’t as active as the Crew had hoped. Crasnick has heard “mixed reviews” on Santana’s potential, as while he enjoyed a good 2017 season, teams aren’t enamored with his strikeouts, defense, and his soon-to-be growing price tag in arbitration. (Both links to Twitter)
- Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Haudricourt and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that the team is waiting to hear on offers it has extended to multiple free agents. Pitching is Milwaukee’s focus this winter, so Haudricourt assumes that the Brewers have made offers to at least a few arms. Stearns also added that the Brew Crew are willing to explore both signings and trades, and talks continue on the latter front.
- In two more tweets from Haudricourt, he mentions that the Brewers and Pirates were in talks today. With Milwaukee looking for pitching and second base help, Haudricourt speculates that Gerrit Cole or Josh Harrison could have been topics of discussion between the two division rivals.
- The Orioles are another team that has expressed in interest in Cole, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. It still isn’t clear whether the Pirates are actually seriously considering moving Cole, though ESPN’s Buster Olney hears from industry evaluators that the Bucs are prepared to move Cole for the right offer. Teams like the Yankees, Rangers, and Twins have all checked in to gauge Pittsburgh’s intentions. Cole would be a sorely-needed upgrade to Baltimore’s struggling rotation, though the O’s don’t have a particularly deep minor league system from which to deal.
- The Giants made a “semi” strong trade offer to the Reds for Billy Hamilton, a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, though it doesn’t look like anything is close to being completed.
Cubs Notes: Machado, Pitching, Chatwood
Some items from Wrigleyville…
- The Cubs aren’t one of the teams that have shown early interest in trading for Manny Machado, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter). Kris Bryant is obviously locked in at third base, though with Machado reportedly looking to return to shortstop, there’s at least some room to imagine Machado playing at the Friendly Confines if the Cubs were willing to move Addison Russell. Trading significant assets for just one year of Machado (who is a free agent after 2018) doesn’t seem to fit the Cubs’ long-term plans, however, especially since the team has already moved several other young prospects in other trades over the last two years.
- Cubs GM Jed Hoyer believes his team will add at least one more pitcher before the Winter Meetings are over, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports. Chicago has been linked to a wide array of starters and relievers this offseason, with Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Morrow already joining the roster.
- Speaking of Chatwood, the Baseball Writers Association Of America is considering making him ineligible for NL Cy Young Award voting due to a clause in his contract, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. If Chatwood receive even one vote for the Cy Young Award in either 2018 or 2019, his 2020 salary will rise from $13MM to $15MM; a single Cy Young vote in both seasons will boost Chatwood’s 2020 figure to $17MM. This creates a conflict of interest for writers covering Chatwood, and the BBWAA, the league and the players’ union had an unspoken agreement that such clauses would no longer be used in player contracts. The last such contract to include such a clause was Curt Schilling‘s deal with the Red Sox in 2007, which was overseen by then-Red Sox GM and now Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein.
Trading Manny Machado
Entering the offseason, it was often suggested that the Orioles should listen to offers on Manny Machado with one year remaining until he reaches the open market, but most reports suggested that the O’s hoped to take one more shot at contending in 2018 before Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach reach free agency. To that end, GM Dan Duquette spoke openly about his hope of adding as many as three starters to round out the rotation behind Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman in an effort to remain competitive.
Over the past week, reports have tilted in the other direction, as suggestions that the O’s would listen on Machado have now evolved to the point where The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Baltimore is shopping Machado and asking interested parties to make offers on the three-time All-Star. Baltimore is eyeing a pair of controllable young starters in talks for Machado, per Rosenthal. It’s a steep ask for a one-year rental of a player projected by MLBTR to earn $17.3MM in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility — even if Machado has been among the game’s truly elite talents over the past five seasons.
Baltimore’s preferences aside, it’s probably fair to assume that a trade package for Machado doesn’t expressly need to be built around two starters. Teams can offer any combination of Major League position players and prospects with some upper-level pitching as they attempt to pique Baltimore’s interest, and if the Orioles are truly open to the idea of moving Machado, it’s doubtful that they’d turn down a strong offer simply because the best player involved happened to be a position player.
It’s also worth noting that while many have suggested that a theoretical Machado trade could come with a “window” to negotiate an extension with his reps at MVP Sports, that scenario is uncommon. Nor, for that matter, should it be considered especially likely that Machado is particularly amenable to an extension with a new organization when he’s less than 12 months removed from hitting the open market as a 26-year-old free agent with a legitimate chance at a record-setting extension.
The Best Fit
From my vantage point, the Cardinals represent the best fit in terms of need and available prospects. The Cards are flush with young pitching, boasting names ranging from Alex Reyes to Luke Weaver to Jack Flaherty to Sandy Alcantara. They’ve also got a sizable crop of upper-level outfielders — another potential area of need for an Orioles with Adam Jones set to hit free agency next winter and no established presence in right field (with no disrespect to Austin Hays, who could well cement himself there in 2018).
The Cards may be reluctant to part with someone of Reyes’ upside or a pitcher like Weaver who shined so brightly down the stretch, but they have plenty of pieces to entice the Orioles. And, they could easily accommodate Machado’s desire to play shortstop by moving Paul DeJong to third base and/or dealing from the infield surplus that a Machado acquisition would create. For a team that just missed out on adding Giancarlo Stanton, acquiring Machado would be a strong fallback option, even if he comes as a short-term rental.
Plausible Landing Spots
Rosenthal noted in his report that Orioles owner Peter Angelos didn’t want to move Machado to the division-rival Yankees, but they have the farm system to make a Godfather offer and a newly vacated hole in their infield with today’s trade of Chase Headley to the Padres. Were it not for the reported reluctance on Angelos’ behalf, they’d merit mention alongside the Cards as one of the clearest fits for Machado.
It’s abundantly clear that the Angels have their sights set on returning to prominence in the AL West sooner rather than later. While they can’t offer Marte time at shortstop with Andrelton Simmons in tow, adding Machado would give the Halos one of the best defensive shortstop/third base combos of this generation. The Angels have an improving but still-not-elite farm, but they have some arms on the big league roster that could at least intrigue the Orioles. Andrew Heaney is coming back from Tommy John surgery but has four years of remaining control. Tyler Skaggs has had his own injury issues but has three years of control.
Weird Dark Horse Suggestions
The Rockies’ roster is stacked with controllable arms on the cusp of the big league roster and the team could view a Machado acquisition as a means of elevating them to the next level while they still have Nolan Arenado in the organization. Adding Machado at shortstop would likely push Trevor Story into a utility role, but having a versatile piece with that type of power would only seem to be a boon for the Rox.
The O’s and Nationals are hardly on the best of terms thanks to their ongoing MASN dispute, and in fact, the two teams have never brokered a trade since the Nats moved to D.C. However, Washington is committed to an aggressive bid at contending in their final guaranteed year of team control over Bryce Harper. The Nats are largely set in the outfield, but they could still shift Trea Turner back to center field and bump Michael Taylor to a fourth outfielder for one year in order to add a player of Machado’s caliber.
No Clear Need
It’s borderline insane to suggest that any team “doesn’t need” Machado; a player of his caliber would improve virtually any team, and he could be deployed at either third base or shortstop next season, so there’d be a variety of ways for him to slot into a new team’s lineup.
Still, teams such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Indians and Mariners lack a pressing need on the left side of the infield and/or already have long-term commitments already in place there. (Cleveland may also have some financial trepidation.) Any team could reasonably look at a Machado rental as a unique opportunity to acquire one of the game’s elite talents, but there’d be enough moving parts involved in talks with any of these teams to make each of them seem unlikely.
Long Shots That Merit Mention
The Giants are another club that missed out on Stanton and have an obvious spot at which they can work Machado into the infield. The hot corner was a black hole in San Francisco last year, as Giants third basemen combined to post a putrid .216/.268/.300 batting line on the season as a whole. Much as the Giants might love the notion of installing Machado at third base though, their best offer could almost certainly topped by an interested party with a better system.
Machado is an upgrade over Jorge Polanco at short for the Twins, who could push Polanco to third base and Miguel Sano to DH. But, the Twins are in dire need of arms themselves. It’d be a surprise to see them part with near-MLB ready arms in a trade to rent Machado for one year. The Brewers are in a similar spot in the sense that while Machado would upgrade over Orlando Arcia, adding pitching is a priority in Milwaukee. Taking a one-year shot on Machado for either Midwest club seems unlikely.
The Mets have plenty of uncertainty in their infield as David Wright and T.J. Rivera both try to return from injuries and Amed Rosario looks to establish himself as a big leaguer. But, New York’s pitching staff was in shambles last season due to injuries, and the depth they once had in the upper levels of the minors has thinned out. It’s tough to see them depleting their supply for a short-term add.
Up in Boston, the Red Sox are known to be looking to add some power to the lineup, but they’re currently penciling Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts in at third and short. Outside of moving Devers across the diamond to first base or a trade of Bogaerts (which some have speculated about but has yet to emerge as a serious possibility), it’s tough to envision that fit. Elsewhere in the AL East, the Blue Jays have their own superstar third baseman in Josh Donaldson with Troy Tulowitzki and Aledmys Diaz in the mix at shortstop.
Everth Cabrera and Khalil Greene are the only two Padres shortstops to post seasons of 3+ fWAR in the past two decades. San Diego has a glaring need at shortstop and a stacked farm system, but it’s still tough to see A.J. Preller depleting the farm he’s built up for a one-year addition of Machado in a year the team has little hope of contending.
Oakland has a steady shortstop in the form of Marcus Semien and will struggle to contend in a stacked AL West division as they wait on their young core to further cement itself in the Majors. The A’s have made some surprise veteran additions in the past and made a serious push for Edwin Encarnacion last offseason, but they’re a substantial reach in this regard.
The Phillies and Braves, too, figure to be oft-mentioned candidates to make a play for Machado. Philadelphia has widely been considered to be a likely pursuer of Machado in free agency, and new Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has a vacancy at third base and a reputation for making big splashes. But neither team was competitive in 2017, neither seems likely to push past the Nationals atop the division and both would be changing course somewhat from rebuilds by flipping long-term talent for short-term gain.
Out of the Picture
Teams that are just embarking on lengthy rebuilds and/or face significant payroll restrictions can more or less be ruled out entirely. The Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Rays and Pirates don’t seem possible by almost any stretch of the imagination. (And, clearly, there’s been some imagination stretching in some of the above-portrayed scenarios.) The Reds and White Sox are further along in the rebuilding process than Detroit, Kansas City or Miami, but neither club makes sense as an ultimate landing spot. The Diamondbacks have a weak farm with several infield options on the left side already, and they’re up against a rather substantial payroll crunch that could make Machado’s $17MM+ salary difficult to stomach.
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