- The incentives for the Boston Red Sox to slip under the luxury tax line in 2020 are manyfold, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Because of higher penalties for repeat offenders, Boston could save themselves close to $100MM in tax penalties over the course of the next three seasons. Of course, to do so, they’ll need to get under the $208MM tax line. Another benefit takes into account a worst case scenario. Should Mookie Betts sign elsewhere as a free agent next year, the Red Sox could improve their compensation from a pick after the fourth round to a pick after the second round. They could also miss out on a potentially hefty revenue sharing rebate that will come from the phase out of Oakland’s revenue-sharing subsidies. Oakland’s market size has been superseded by lack of revenue, thus placing them among the revenue-sharing recipients, but their free ride is coming to an end. That money will be dispersed among the large-market, revenue-sharing contributors, perhaps proportionately so. That would be a boon for the Red Sox, but they risk forfeiture of the reward if they continue to spend over the tax. Hence, the David Price auction rolls ever onward.
Red Sox Rumors
KBO Notes: Kelly, Wilson, Raley
Though it seemed for awhile like Casey Kelly was drawing enough interest to warrant a return to the states, the right-hander has instead re-upped for another season in the KBO. Kelly signed back with the LG Twins for $1.5MM, which includes $300K in incentives, per Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. Kelly is most famous for his time as a prospect in the Red Sox system. He was eventually dealt to San Diego in a 2011 blockbuster which also featured Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo. Kelly never broke out with the Padres, thanks in part to 2013 Tommy John surgery, which kept him off the hill for the entire season. Kelly ended up accruing a mere 40 1/3 innings with the Padres in parts of two seasons (2012 and ’15), and later combined for another 45 1/3 between the Braves (2016) and Giants (2018). The 30-year-old Kelly has done rather well for himself overseas, going 14-12 last season with a 2.55 ERA across 180 1/3 innings as a starter for the LG Twins.
- Tyler Wilson will also return to the KBO’s Twins for another season, per Kurtz. 2020 will mark Wilson’s third season with the Twins, for whom he put together solid back-to-back seasons. Coming off a 14-7 year with a 2.92 ERA in 185 innings, Wilson has signed for $1.6MM, including $200K in incentives. The 30-year-old Virginian appeared with the Orioles for parts of three seasons from 2015 to 2017.
- Coming the other way, southpaw Brooks Raley could be on his way back after five seasons with the Lotte Giants in Korea, tweets Jon Morosi of Fox Sports. Raley was once a Cubs farmhand who broke into the majors for five starts in 2012. He also saw limited action for Chicago the following season, though totaling just 38 1/3 innings and a 7.04 ERA across those two seasons. The Cubs made Raley a 6th round draft choice in 2009 out of Texas A&M. The Minnesota Twins claimed him off waivers, but the Angels claimed him not long after. Raley never appeared at the big league level for either squad. Morosi notes that the 31-year-old Texan is drawing interest from big league clubs now, though which teams were not specified.
David Price Drawing Trade Interest
10:42pm: The Red Sox haven’t made any progress toward a Price trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The Padres are among the teams they’ve talked to about Price, per Rosenthal.
6:21pm: Even though he’s coming off an injury-laden season and is still owed a significant amount of money, Red Sox left-hander David Price has garnered trade interest from “multiple teams,” Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets.
This isn’t the first time the 34-year-old Price has been in the news this week. His seven-year, $217MM contract, once a record for a pitcher, was toppled by the seven-year, $245MM pact Stephen Strasburg signed with the Nationals on Monday. The Price deal hasn’t fully worked out to the Red Sox’s liking thus far, though he did help the team to a World Series victory in 2018.
More recently, Price put up a decent but unspectacular 4.28 ERA during a 107 1/3-inning 2019 campaign that ended without a playoff berth for the Red Sox. Price made only two starts beyond July as he dealt with arm problems, posted a career-low 92 mph average fastball velocity (down from 92.7 the prior year), and saw his season come to an official end in late September when he underwent minor elbow surgery.
Although last season wasn’t a banner year for the former ace, Price did log an above-average 3.62 FIP with 10.73 K/9 against 2.68 BB/9. Most clubs would sign up for those numbers, albeit at a far more reasonable price than the $96MM Price is owed over the next three years. The Red Sox seem likely to move on from Price if they can get a major portion of that money off their books, as they – led by new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom – work to get under the $208MM luxury tax in 2020. However, it’s going to be difficult, and as Passan notes, jettisoning Price could require eating some of his salary and/or adding a valuable player to the package to convince a team to take him.
Red Sox Notes & Rumors: JBJ, Mookie, Porcello, Holt, Front Office
The Red Sox are “actively” attempting to trade center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. The Mets had been among the teams in on Bradley, per Abraham, but they addressed their need in center field last week with the addition of Jake Marisnick from the Astros. Bradley’s a fine player who has generally performed well with the Red Sox, but moving him (and his projected $11MM salary for 2020, his last year of team control) would help the team shave payroll in an effort to get under the $208MM luxury tax next season. Newly minted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Monday that it remains a goal for the franchise to spend below the threshold in 2020, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com.
More from Boston…
- Like Bradley, fellow Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts is going into his final season of arbitration control. Betts, who’s projected to make a whopping $27.7MM in 2020, has made it known in the past that he intends to test free agency next winter. However, that hasn’t stopped the Red Sox from being in touch with Betts “multiple” times in regards to a long-term contract, according to Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. This is setting up as a fascinating offseason for the 27-year-old Betts, a one-time AL MVP who looks like an extension candidate and perhaps a trade candidate.
- Right-hander Rick Porcello and utility player Brock Holt are among the Red Sox’s most prominent free agents. Even though a report Sunday suggested the Red Sox are at least interested in a reunion with Porcello, Abraham downplays the possibility he or Holt will be back with the club next season. The Red Sox have simply kept tabs on Porcello and Holt, and they’re not “actively involved with” those two or any of their other free agents.
- The Red Sox announced extensions for key front office personnel Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero and Zack Scott on Monday. Each received multiyear deals, and they’ll all hold the title of Executive Vice President/Assistant General Manager. Those duties will come with “expanded responsibilities within the baseball operations department,” per the team. Those three, along with now-GM Brian O’Halloran, helped steer the ship in Boston between the end of president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski’s run in early September and the hiring of Bloom just under two months later.
Travis Shaw Open To Red Sox Return
- Free-agent infielder Travis Shaw, on the market since the Brewers let him go at the non-tender deadline a week ago, has garnered interest from the Blue Jays, Jon Morosi of MLB.com relays. Additionally, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays that the third baseman/second baseman has expressed a willingness to return to the Red Sox, his first MLB team, though it’s unclear if they’re open to a reunion. Shaw, whom the Red Sox traded to the Brewers in December 2017, had a pair of highly productive years in Milwaukee before his numbers fell off a cliff this past season. That caused the Brewers to move on from Shaw, leaving the 29-year-old as a buy-low candidate this winter.
Red Sox Interested In Rick Porcello
With the free agent pitching ranks quickly thinning out, it seems veteran starter Rick Porcello is beginning to garner widespread interest. After yesterday brought word of the Mets’ pursuit of the right-hander, it now appears that the Red Sox are kicking the tires on the soon-to-be 31-year-old, according to reporting from Jason Mastrodonato of The Boston Globe. The reporter cites an industry source in saying that Boston and Porcello’s reps “remain engaged in discussions”.
We figured Porcello for a one-year deal worth $11MM at the outset of this offseason, but his representatives may be able to leverage multiple interested parties into a guarantee exceeding that projection. True, Porcello’s 2019 was ugly: he pitched to a 5.52 ERA (4.76 ERA) in 174.1 innings, while posting the lowest strikeout rates he’s exhibited since coming to Boston prior to 2015 (7.38 K/9). Still, there are still some underlying analytics that offer reason for optimism, including the high spin rate generated on Porcello’s breaking pitches–that is, if someone is apt to overlook his struggles with the home run ball (the righty allowed 31 taters in 2019, tied for seventh-most in the game). Perhaps it’s most judicious to simply say that teams in search of an innings-eater could do worse than a young-ish, former Cy Young winner in good health.
The Red Sox definitely figure to be one such team. As things stand, the team figures to call on Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi next season–three pitchers with serious durability concerns. A Porcello re-signing wouldn’t raise many neck hairs in the Massachusetts area, but it would provide some stability for a rotation that, outside of Eduardo Rodriguez, is relatively short on it.
For what it’s worth, Mastrodonato provides some quotes Porcello made back in May when he expressed a desire to stay with the Sox. Speaking of a possible extension, the pitcher said that he and his reps had “expressed our willingness to take a discount to make that work”, but that the club basically didn’t feel like it was at financial liberty to give him the deal he was seeking. Whether the club, under the new direction of Chaim Bloom, has changed their thinking on Porcello’s value bears watching as the Winter Meetings get underway this week.
Chris Sale 'No Doubt' Ready For Spring Training
- Red Sox ace Chris Sale finished the 2019 season on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow. However, there’s “no doubt” he’ll be ready for spring training, he told reporters (including Adam Fisher of the Fort Myers News-Press). Sale was cleared to begin throwing last week, and he offered a few details on his offseason program yesterday. Currently, Sale is throwing three times a week, he said, and he plans to up his workload soon before moving to long-toss and, eventually, mound work. Sale’s peripherals were dominant again last season, but his 147.1 innings of 4.40 ERA ball no doubt made for some disappointing results. The Sox will be hoping for more typical bottom line numbers from the star southpaw in 2020.
Rival Execs Don't Anticipate Betts Swap
- Also skeptical? Rival executives, regarding the likelihood of the Red Sox trading Mookie Betts, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That’s really not surprising to hear, though the reasoning offered by Nightengale’s sources is a bit confounding. The issue, he says, is that rival clubs won’t offer all that much for the outstanding outfielder. They “can simply wait until he’s a free agent next winter” rather than taking on a big salary and giving up valuable prospects. That seems to miss the point in large part, as a team acquiring Betts now would be doing so specifically to pick up his highly valuable age-27 season. Renting one of the game’s best players would obviously alter a team’s outlook for the coming season rather drastically; it stands to reason it’d cost something to do so.
- Lefty Rich Hill has not only drawn wide interest despite major elbow surgery … it seems he’s open to considering offers from all teams, so long as they have hopes of winning in 2020. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), Hill says he’s not focused solely on his two preferred landing spots (the Dodgers and Red Sox). While it seems that he’d still rather end up in one of those two places, the veteran says that they “might not work out.” He’s open to considering other contenders. And Hill left no doubt that he anticipates playing a big role in the 2020 season, saying he hopes to be ready to roll by June.
Giants To Hire Brian Bannister
The Giants are set to hire Red Sox vice president of pitching development away to join their own front office, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Bannister’s title with his new organization will be director of pitching, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe points out (via Twitter), the new position allows Bannister to live closer to his Bay Area home and spend additional time with his wife and two children.
Bannister himself confirmed that he’s moving on from the Sox, offering his gratitude to the organization (Twitter links):
Thank you to John Henry, Tom Werner, Sam Kennedy, and all the amazingly talented people in Baseball Ops for the opportunity to be a part of the Red Sox family for the last 5 years. It was a dream to call Fenway my office, and to be a very small part of a historic run in Boston. I want to specifically thank [chief baseball officer] Chaim Bloom and [general manager] Brian O’Halloran — they are incredible leaders and the Red Sox will be in good hands for a very long time. Thank you to the coaches and support staff, it was a privilege winning a World Series with you in 2018 and all the best in 2020.
Bannister, 39 in February, pitched parts of five Major League seasons from 2006-10 and joined the Red Sox as a pro scout after concluding his playing career. The Boston organization elevated him to director of pitching analysis and development in 2015 before naming him vice president of pitching development and assistant bullpen coach following the 2016 season. The Red Sox had announced after the 2019 season that they’d be going in a different direction with their pitching coach roles, though Bannister was still expected to remain in the organization prior to today’s news.
Red Sox Re-Sign Marco Hernandez, Josh Osich
The Red Sox announced today that they have re-signed infielder Marco Hernandez and lefty Josh Osich. Both had been non-tendered in advance of Monday’s deadline.
Both players are headed back onto the 40-man roster. The reason for this approach, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains on Twitter, was to enable the sides to agree to a different contract structure than would have been possible in the arbitration context.
Osich gets a split contract with a $850K MLB salary, according to Speier (Twitter link). He had projected to earn $1MM via arbitration after being claimed by the Red Sox from the White Sox in October. The 31-year-old worked to a 4.66 ERA in 67 2/3 MLB innings last year, recording 8.1 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 but coughing up 15 home runs.
As for Hernandez, whose re-signing was reported yesterday, he’ll have a split deal with a MLB rate of $650K MLB (also via Speier, on Twitter). He hasn’t done much damage with the bat in limited opportunities at the game’s highest level, but the organization obviously still thinks the versatile defender could be a valuable roster piece. Hernandez, who hopes to put his shoulder issues behind him in 2020, had projected to earn $700K via arbitration.
