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Poll: Where Will Mookie Betts Play In 2020?

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The trade rumblings surrounding Mookie Betts are presumably nearing their peak. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported last night that resolution on trade talks regarding him could come within the next few days. Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show this morning (Twitter link, with video), plainly stating that a Betts trade “is going to happen.”

At this point, the race to acquire Betts is widely reported to be between a pair of NL West rivals: the Dodgers and the Padres. The former, of course, is a perennial division champ hoping that Betts could be the piece to finally push them across the finish line in the World Series after two near-misses in three years. The latter would simply hope Betts could propel them into postseason play at all. San Diego has yet to experience a playoff game under general manager A.J. Preller, who was hired more than five years ago.

As with most high-profile trade scenarios, there are multiple layers to consider. Both the Padres and Dodgers have excellent farm systems and controllable, MLB-ready talent to pitch to new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Betts would push the Padres into franchise-record payroll territory but wouldn’t bring them to the luxury tax threshold. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have spent far more than this before but would be in luxury territory with Betts on board.

The financial components don’t stop there. San Diego has reportedly sought to unload part of Wil Myers’ contract (three years, $61MM remaining) on the Red Sox in their talks. Boston has been trying to push some of David Price’s remaining deal (three years, $96MM) on both clubs; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets this morning that the Dodgers are still trying to get the Sox to take on a larger portion of Price’s contract.

The emergence of an unexpected suitor — who doesn’t love a good mystery team?! — would make things more interesting and remains possible as long as Betts is still under Red Sox control.

It’s only been 10 days since MLBTR readers weighed in on whether a Betts trade would happen at all, with nearly 69 percent of participants voting that the 2018 AL MVP would open the 2020 season in Boston. Just over a week later, there’s a decidedly different feel around the Betts situation, so let’s open this up one final time (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Who will Mookie Betts be playing for on Opening Day 2020?
He'll be a Dodger. 55.55% (17,854 votes)
The Red Sox won't trade him. 17.89% (5,749 votes)
He'll be a Padre. 15.28% (4,912 votes)
Never bet against the mystery team! 11.28% (3,627 votes)
Total Votes: 32,142

Mookie Betts Trade Talks Could Be Nearing Resolution

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The Mookie Betts saga hasn’t yet reached a resolution. That could change shortly. The Red Sox may make a decision on Betts “within the next few days,” reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston has continued to discuss “multiple” trade scenarios with both the Dodgers and Padres. Those talks have now reached “a relatively advanced stage,” Speier reports. Earlier this week, Speier categorized the Betts sweepstakes as “a two-team race” between Los Angeles and San Diego. There’s no indication anyone beyond the two NL West rivals is still involved.

That’s not to say a Betts trade imminently coming to fruition is a guarantee. The Red Sox haven’t asked either L.A. or San Diego for “a last and best offer,” a source from one of the rival clubs told Speier. That suggests there remains some possibility of talks fizzling out or going in an unexpected direction; at the very least, it doesn’t seem Boston plans to set a firm deadline on a Betts trade, at least not immediately.

Reading between the lines, though, it feels like a Betts trade is now more likely than ever. Speier reported earlier in the week it was “likelier than not” the superstar would wind up on the move, and today’s news only strengthens that notion. If a deal does get across the finish line, what could the Red Sox expect in return for the former AL MVP?

Any deal with the Padres would need to include Wil Myers to help offset payroll, Speier reiterates. (Betts will make $27MM in 2020 in the final season before he reaches free agency). As Speier observes, San Diego’s package of young talent would therefore have to top that of the Dodgers to compensate for the inclusion of some of Myers’ contract. The 29-year-old is due $61MM over the next three seasons. Coming off a season in which he hit just .239/.321/.418, Myers certainly wouldn’t approach that figure if he were on the open market now. San Diego would pay down some of Myers’ deal in the event of a trade, Speier notes; even still, the Red Sox would surely demand more valuable young talent with Myers included than they otherwise would have.

Among that young talent would figure to be an MLB-ready outfielder and starting pitcher, as well as some prospect help. San Diego has shown a willingness to discuss outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor, Speier reports, although any outfielders except Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham could be on the table. Starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi continue to garner some consideration, while any prospect package would likely be led by catcher Luis Campusano (Baseball America’s #79 overall prospect), Speier adds. Not all five players would be involved in a Betts trade, of course, and there are no doubt others who have come up in talks. The names under discussion give some early indication of what to expect if a Betts deal involving San Diego is completed, though.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, meanwhile, Alex Verdugo could be on the table, Speier reports. The 23-year-old former top prospect hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) in 377 plate appearances last season and comes with five years of team control, making him an eminently valuable trade piece. Other scenarios with the Dodgers still seem to be up in the air; the parties continue to discuss a package deal involving David Price and his three-year, $96MM contract, Speier notes, as well as deals that would send Betts alone to L.A.

Notably, the Athletic’s Peter Gammons noted this afternoon (via Twitter) that the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunner, with three sources characterizing Betts to L.A. as “inevitable.” Verdugo could indeed be on the table in such a scenario, Gammons hears; he further adds middle infield prospect Jeter Downs and pitcher Caleb Ferguson as names to monitor.

With spring training approaching, one of this offseason’s greatest dramas appears to be nearing its conclusion. Wherever Betts plays next season, he figures to again offer outstanding production. The 27-year-old has a .299/.389/.535 slash (140 wRC+) since the start of 2017. With elite baserunning and defense factored in, only Mike Trout has bested Mookie’s 22.4 fWAR over that time.

Quick Hits: Hoyer, Cubs, Moreland, Jays, Phillies

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“The activity of our offseason isn’t indicative of how much we’ve been on the phone and have been working,” Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer told ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers as part of a Q&A session.  It has been a quiet winter in Wrigleyville, as the Cubs have been limited to minor league signings and a couple of low-cost MLB contracts as the club is seemingly operating with a very limited amount of available payroll.  The Cubs have yet to make any major acquisitions or trade away any big in-house contracts to free up more luxury tax space, though while Hoyer admitted “this is obviously likely to be one of our less active offseasons,” more transactions could be on the horizon.  “We’ve been incredibly active making calls and exploring options,” the GM said, adding that he expects “the trade market will continue to be an active place well into February.”

Here are some more notes to kick off both Groundhog Day and Super Bowl Sunday….

  • Before re-signing with the Red Sox, Mitch Moreland received offers from at least two other clubs, the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham writes.  “The biggest thing for me was I’ve enjoyed my time in Boston.  It feels like home for us and there’s a good group of guys.  I’m comfortable there,” said Moreland, who has played the last three seasons with the Sox.  “It’s a good family atmosphere, too, and that means a lot to me.”  Moreland was eager enough to return to Fenway Park that he re-signed despite the fact that the Sox don’t yet have a manager in place in the wake of Alex Cora’s firing.
  • Blue Jays bullpen coach Matt Buschmann has been named as director of pitching development, the team announced.  Buschmann will work in both roles for the 2020 season.  A veteran of 11 pro seasons (including a brief stint of 4 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks in 2016), Buschmann retired after the 2017 campaign to take on an assistant director post with the Giants before joining the Jays for the 2019 season.
  • The Phillies’ lack of starting pitching upgrades have left David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer pessimistic about the club’s chances of competing in 2020.  Though the Phils landed one of the winter’s biggest free agent arms in Zack Wheeler, Murphy feels much more rotation help was necessary given how Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin posted middling numbers last year, and even Aaron Nola’s solid year was a step back from an outstanding 2018 season.  The shortage of pitching especially stands out in the NL East, where the Nationals, Braves, and Mets are all deep in rotation options.

Red Sox To Interview Luis Urueta For Managerial Vacancy

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The Red Sox are interviewing Luis Urueta for the club’s open managerial position, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes (Spanish-language link). He’s expected to speak with the club today via phone.

Urueta is presently the bench coach of the Diamondbacks, where he serves under skipper Torey Lovullo — who, like much of the top Arizona baseball ops leadership, came over from the Boston organization. The Snakes have given Urueta permission to interview, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter).

The 39-year-old Urueta didn’t make it far as a professional player, but he has found quite a lot of success by climbing the ranks as a coach. His roots are in the D-Backs organization. The Colombian has also managed his home nation’s World Baseball Classic team and skippered the Dominican winter ball Licey Tigers.

Urueta’s background is generally similar to that of just-hired Mets manager Luis Rojas. Both clubs faced late hiring searches owing to the involvement of their prior managers in the Astros sign-stealing scandal. Urueta becomes the first Red Sox candidate known to have an interview; Mark Kotsay is also rumored as a potential target.

Latest On Dodgers’ Pursuit Of Mookie Betts

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5:54PM: “All signs point to a two-team race” between the Dodgers and Padres for Betts, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, and “Major League sources believe that it’s likelier than not that Betts gets traded, potentially in the very near future.”  Price might yet be involved in a potential Dodgers deal, though adding Price alongside Betts “might compromise the prospect return for the Sox,” since Los Angeles doesn’t want to absorb much of Price’s contract.  On the Padres’ side, they “seem open on just about any other outfielder” than Tommy Pham or Trent Grisham in trade talks.  The Diamondbacks were another team linked to Betts in trade rumors, though Speier hears from a source that there was “no real traction” between Boston and Arizona even before the D’Backs acquired Starling Marte, so Arizona seems to be out of the Betts hunt.

7:30AM: With camp fast approaching, teams weighing major trades are surely beginning to feel the pressure. The Dodgers are keeping their cool as they continue to pursue Red Sox star Mookie Betts, Andy McCullough of The Athletic writes (subscription link). But they’re also possibly nearing a decision.

Talks between the coastal giants could well be reaching an inflection point, it seems. McCullough writes that the teams have “approached a resolution” in their talks “in recent days.”

Details of the packages under consideration are limited; as McCullough notes, it’s possible to imagine rather a wide variety of permutations. But the talks — at least, in some variations — do involve high-priced Boston hurler David Price. (Shades of another major trade between these teams?)

As we discussed recently in a poll on the subject, there’s no shortage of pressure on the team to make strides. And the goal is obviously to find a major new performer. But the team also has reason to remain comfortable with its existing talent. No surprise, then, that McCullough indicates the organization isn’t really interested in stretching too far to make a deal.

It’s worth noting, too, that holding back assets for mid-season trades represents a viable alternative strategy. Betts himself could be available then, if he’s not poached first by another club (such as the division-rival Padres). The Dodgers can’t assume they’ll coast to another title, particularly now that the Diamondbacks have compiled such an interesting roster, but there’s some conceptual merit to waiting for mid-season roster holes to open before acting.

Speaking of that aforementioned poll … the results were interesting. Respondents were fairly evenly split as to whether the Dodgers would pull off a blockbuster. Among those that foresee a deal, about half think Betts will indeed land to L.A.

Red Sox Reportedly Interested In Mark Kotsay

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Already a candidate for the Astros’ managerial vacancy – a position that might not go unfilled for much longer – Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay could also be on Boston’s radar. He’s “believed” to be in the running to replace ousted Red Sox manager Alex Cora, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. However, it’s unclear whether the Red Sox have interviewed Kotsay yet, Cotillo adds.

There doesn’t appear to be a clear front-runner yet to succeed Cora, one of three managers who lost his job this month as a result of the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal. For his part, Kotsay has never managed before, but the 44-year-old former outfielder and ex-member of the Red Sox has garnered front office and coaching experience since his playing days ended in 2013. And he has been a popular managerial candidate over the past several months, having drawn serious interest from the Giants and Pirates before they went in other directions back in the fall.

Once San Francisco and Pittsburgh chose their next managers, it looked as if Kotsay would have to wait at least another year to become a big league skipper. However, with Houston’s transgressions having shaken up the managerial ranks this month, Kotsay has re-emerged on the radar.

Red Sox Re-Sign Mitch Moreland

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Mitch Moreland will be back for at least a fourth season in Boston, as the Red Sox announced Tuesday that he’s been re-signed to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2021 season. The BASH Baseball client will reportedly be guaranteed $3MM in the form of a $2.5MM salary in 2020 and a $500K buyout on a $3MM option for the 2021 season. Right-hander Denyi Reyes has been designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster, per the Red Sox.

Mitch Moreland | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

This marks the third time that Moreland, 34, has signed a free-agent deal with the Red Sox. Since signing in Boston prior to the 2017 season, he’s delivered a .247/.326/.455 slash with 56 home runs, 74 doubles and five triples. Most of that damage from the left-handed-hitting Moreland has come against right-handed pitching, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see right-handed-hitting Michael Chavis pair with him at the position.

Beyond his respectable contributions at the plate, Moreland is renowned for his defensive prowess at first base. Defensive metrics suggested that Moreland took a step back in his age-33 season, though most measures of his glovework still pegged him as a roughly average defender at the position, and his track record is quite strong overall. Given that he’ll come at such an affordable rate not only in 2020 but potentially in 2021, Moreland is a sensible re-signing even at a time when the Red Sox are striving to lower their luxury tax commitments.

Like fellow offseason pickup Jose Peraza, Moreland will count $3MM against the Red Sox’ luxury ledger in 2020. With Moreland back in the fold, Boston’s bottom-line payroll checks in at roughly $236MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their luxury tax commitments, meanwhile, exceed the $208MM threshold by more than $31MM now that Moreland is set to return.

As for the 23-year-old Reyes, he was added to the 40-man roster last winter as the Red Sox sought to protect themselves against losing him in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft. At that time, Reyes had wrapped up a standout season that saw him post a combined 1.97 ERA with a superlative 145-to-19 K/BB ratio in 155 1/3 innings as a 21-year-old between Class-A and Class-A Advanced.

Reyes turned in a 4.16 ERA (3.69 FIP) against older competition in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting this past season, albeit with a diminished 6.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 32.1 percent grounder rate. New chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom apparently wasn’t as bullish on the right-hander as the prior regime, and the Sox will have a week to either trade Reyes, place him on outright waivers or release him.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the signing.

Latest On Padres-Red Sox Talks On Mookie Betts

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The chatter on Red Sox star Mookie Betts continues even as the opening of camp draws near. Three NL West organizations are reportedly engaged with the Boston organization on the exceptional right fielder, adding to the intrigue.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune updates the situation from the Padres’ perspective, covering quite a few notable details on the discussions. The Friars are said to be trying to structure a deal around a pair of young MLB-level players: one outfielder (Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor) and one pitcher (Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi).

Supposing that aspect of the prospective arrangement meets with the desires of the Boston front office, there’s still the matter of sorting out the money. As has been reported previously, the Friars wish to offload as much as possible of the Wil Myers contract, in no small part due to the fact that Betts is set to play for $27MM in 2020. But the sides are currently deadlocked on the dollars, with the Sox “offering to assume about half” of the $61MM still owed Myers and the Pads wishing “to eat only about a quarter.”

While a ~$15MM difference is no small matter, that’s not necessarily an unbridgeable gap. (At least, assuming the teams are seeing eye to eye on the other pieces.) But the Red Sox surely don’t want to sell low on a franchise stalwart. And the Padres are understandably wary of over-extending for a rental player.

Among the clubs pursuing Betts, the Padres are in the most speculative competitive position. They’re trying to move out of the NL West cellar and chase down the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. That won’t be an easy feat, even with Betts. While there’d always be a mid-season ripcord if things fall flat, and Betts is all but assured of receiving and declining a qualifying offer at season’s end, it’s questionable whether now is the time to push a bunch of chips in on a purely win-now move.

Latest On Mookie Betts

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Mookie Betts trade drama has been one of the prevailing stories of the offseason. In addition to the Red Sox’s recent discussions with the Padres, Boston is also in touch with the Dodgers on a potential Betts deal, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While there’s still no certainty that Boston will eventually pull the trigger, Speier characterizes the club’s willingness to move the 2018 AL MVP as “serious.”

While a Padres’ deal would seemingly require Boston to take on Wil Myers’ contract as a means of acquiring prospects and reducing their luxury tax hit, Dodgers’ talks would seem to be more straightforward. As Speier notes, L.A. could part with one of their many MLB outfielders to facilitate a trade for Betts, whom they justifiably view as “a rare talent.” Such a scenario could be appealing to Boston, who no doubt hopes to compete in 2020.

Interestingly, Speier adds that the Dodgers could look to explore a package deal involving Betts and a high-priced starting pitcher like David Price. That would help Boston get under the $208MM luxury tax threshold, although Sox owner John Henry recently downplayed the importance of doing so. At the moment, the Sox project for a $236.8MM luxury number, per Roster Resource. Removing Betts’ $27MM and Price’s $31MM respective CBT hits from the books would ameliorate that. That, of course, would certainly make Boston’s roster worse in the short-term, even if they received MLB-ready pieces in any return.

A third NL West team is also at least lurking on the periphery of the Betts’ market. The Diamondbacks, where former Red Sox executives Mike Hazen and Amiel Sawdaye are leading the front office, have interest in the superstar outfielder, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Arizona doesn’t have the resources or farm system of the Dodgers or Padres, perhaps making them a longshot. Still, any team figures to have a strong enough system to reel in Betts, who will hit free agency next offseason. Meanwhile, the Snakes should have a bit of financial flexibility, with a projected season-opening payroll of $114MM that trails their season-ending outlay of $125MM. That alone wouldn’t be enough to make room for Betts’ $27MM salary, although perhaps ownership could bump payroll beyond typical spending levels if it meant landing a unique talent.

If anything is clear from the varying reports, it’s that the situation remains fluid. 70% of MLBTR readers forecasted this week that Betts would open the season in Boston. That’s obviously still a strong possibility. Nothing prevents the Red Sox from holding Betts and reevaluating their situation at the trade deadline; future suitors wouldn’t get the benefit of being able to tag Betts with a qualifying offer if they acquire him in-season (as they would if a deal is swung preseason), but there’d no doubt still be demand for one of the sport’s best players in July.

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