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Red Sox To Activate David Price On Sunday

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The Red Sox will activate left-hander David Price from the injured list to start against the Angels on Sunday, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. Meanwhile, lefty Brian Johnson will finish the year in Boston’s bullpen, according to Abraham.

Price went to the shelf with a cyst in his wrist back on Aug. 8, which came on the heels of a rough few starts. The 34-year-old owned a 3.16 ERA as of July 16, but the number shot to 4.36 in the handful of outings preceding his IL placement. A significant portion of the damage came in Price’s most recent appearance, in which the rival Yankees clobbered him for seven earned runs on nine hits (including a pair of homers) in 2 2/3 innings.

Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Red Sox will be glad to get back Price, who’s in the fourth season of a seven-year, $217MM investment. For the most part, Price has been a decent contributor this season, evidenced by a 3.63 FIP/3.67 xFIP/3.82 SIERA with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings. And the rest of the Red Sox’s starting staff isn’t in particularly great shape, which helps explain why the defending champions are 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Injured ace Chris Sale is probably done for the year, former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been a letdown, and big-money offseason re-signing Nathan Eovaldi has both underperformed and dealt with significant elbow problems.

Thanks in part to the myriad issues in their rotation, the Red Sox have had to give seven starts to Johnson, who hasn’t produced appealing results during an injury- and illness- shortened campaign. The 28-year-old has logged a 5.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 5.87 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 out of Boston’s rotation.

David Price Nearing Return

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  • Red Sox southpaw David Price “believes” he’ll come off the IL to rejoin this weekend in Anaheim, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. A TFCC cyst in Price’s left wrist has kept him from pitching in the majors since Aug. 4, which was a particularly forgettable start for the 34-year-old. Price gave up seven earned in 2 2/3 innings against the Yankees then, raising his 2019 ERA from 3.86 to 4.36 in one fell swoop. The hurler’s other numbers are much better, however, as he owns a 3.64 FIP with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 across 105 1/3 innings.

Latest On Dustin Pedroia

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Rehabbing Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia seems to be in good spirits after his latest knee procedure. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, the veteran reports that “things are going really good compared to where I was before the surgery.”

It’s only two weeks out, but that seems generally to be a promising development for a player whose future remains quite uncertain. As Bradford notes, it’s still not clear just how Pedroia will proceed with rehab work — if he does so at all — after several prior attempts at a return have been stymied.

Pedroia, who recently turned 36, is owed $25MM over the next two seasons. While the Boston organization would no doubt welcome a contribution from the long-time star, it’s hard to imagine the club will rely upon a return as it compiles a plan for the offseason.

Since undergoing season-ending surgery in 2017, Pedroia has appeared in just nine MLB contests. But he was still in good form prior to the onset of the physical ailments. From 2015 through 2017, he compiled a .304/.369/.430 batting line in 1,586 plate appearances.

Regardless of how Pedroia proceeds, it’ll be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle the second base position this winter. Brock Holt and Michael Chavis have spent much of the time there in 2019, but the former is a free agent and the latter is arguably better-suited to playing first base.

How The BoSox Found Bogaerts

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  • Xander Bogaerts (and his twin brother Jair) signed with the Red Sox on August 23, 2009, and in commemoration of a decade passing since that key signing, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe looked back at the circumstances that led the Sox to the superstar shortstop.  The team was only starting to expand its developmental base in the Caribbean, and it was when scout Mike Lord held Boston’s first workout in Aruba that Lord met Jair, only to learn that this impressive young prospect’s brother was an even better player.  Since Xander was absent from the tryout due to chicken pox, Lord arranged for a later private workout, and a film of Xander’s session quickly impressed Boston’s front office.  A handshake deal was reached to sign both twins within the week, and though teams like the Yankees, Mariners, Braves, Astros, and Reds all tried to top Boston’s offer, the Bogaerts brothers stuck to their initial agreement with the Red Sox.  The rest is history, as Xander has emerged as one of the game’s best players.

Andrew Benintendi Leaves Game With Side Tightness

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  • Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi left last night’s game against the Padres in the sixth inning with left side tightness, as relayed by Chris Cotillo of Mass Live. For now, he remains day-to-day, with manager Alex Cora telling Cotillo he’ll be evaluated on Monday’s off day. Benintendi won’t be available today, per Cora, although he was due for a maintenance day regardless, the skipper noted. The University of Arkansas product hasn’t quite emerged as the superstar many envisioned when he was one of baseball’s top prospects, but he’s no doubt a valuable and important piece of Boston’s outfield mix, boasting a solid .283/.357/.462 slash line (112 wRC+). The Sox have won seven of their last ten games, but as Rob Bradford of WEEI points out, they haven’t made up much ground in their pursuit of a Wild Card spot in recent weeks. Fangraphs gives the defending champions just a 6.4% shot of getting to the play-in game, and any long-term absence for Benintendi would only deplete those odds further. Fortunately, the club is optimistic at this point he’ll return Tuesday for the start of a series against the Rockies, per Cotillo.

Latest On Steve Pearce, Steven Wright, Heath Hembree

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Injured Red Sox first baseman Steve Pearce and knuckleballer Steven Wright have barely been factors this season, which now looks likely to go down as a lost year for both players. It’s “doubtful” either will take the field again in 2019, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.

It’s hard to believe 2019 has been so dreadful for Pearce, one of the main heroes of the Red Sox’s championship run a year ago. The midseason trade acquisition was an offensive force with two teams (Boston and Toronto) during the regular season and continued his torrid pace in the playoffs, earning World Series MVP honors for the Red Sox’s five-game triumph against the Dodgers.

As great as Pearce was in 2018, he only appeared in 76 games then. This season, thanks largely to a lower back strain that has shelved him since May 31, Pearce has played in a mere 29 contests. When he has entered the batters box, the once-potent Pearce has slashed a miserable .180/.245/.258 with one home run and a microscopic .079 ISO in 99 plate appearances. That obviously isn’t what the Red Sox had in mind when they re-signed Pearce to a $6.25MM guarantee last November. Considering his meager production since inking that deal, free agency certainly won’t be as kind to the 36-year-old Pearce during the upcoming offseason.

The Red Sox can still control Wright next year, his last season of arbitration eligibility, but he has joined Pearce in enduring a nightmarish campaign. Wright began the year serving an 80-game suspension after a failed PED test, thus keeping him from debuting until late June, and then went on the IL in mid-July with a right foot contusion. The 34-year-old right-hander – a former All-Star – has thrown 6 1/3 innings this season and allowed six earned runs on 11 hits (including three home runs) and four walks.

In better news for Boston, there’s a “good chance” righty reliever Heath Hembree will pitch again this season, manager Alex Cora told Cotillo. Hembree went down with an elbow strain Aug. 2 – the second time the joint forced him to the IL in 2019. The elbow problems have helped lead to middling results for Hembree, he of the 4.06 ERA/4.91 FIP with 10.75 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a paltry 21.8 percent groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings.

Red Sox Notes: Price, Chavis

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Left-hander David Price had been a candidate to come off the injured list and start for the Red Sox on Sunday, but that won’t happen, Scott Miller of Bleacher Report was among those to report. Price, out since Aug. 8 with a left wrist problem, is instead another several days from returning. He’ll throw a 55-pitch simulated game Tuesday, after which the Red Sox will decide a next course of action, according to manager Alex Cora. That’s unfortunate news for Boston, which is a potentially insurmountable seven games back of the American League’s last wild-card spot and whose rotation has been an issue throughout the season. Price didn’t help the Red Sox’s cause in his most recent starts, as his ERA skyrocketed from 3.16 on July 14 to 4.36 after the last time he took the ball. But the 33-year-old has still been among the club’s most effective starters this season. His K/BB ratio (4.06) ranks 26th out of 103 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings in 2019.

  • Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis started a rehab assignment Friday, according to the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Pawtucket. Chavis went to the IL on Aug. 12 with an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, continuing what has been a rough month for the 24-year-old. While Chavis was amid a slump when he landed on the shelf, he has enjoyed a respectable rookie year overall. Chavis has batted .254/.322/.444 with 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances and 95 games, during which he has split time between first and second base.

Latest On Chris Sale

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Chris Sale’s visit with Dr. James Andrews on Monday didn’t reveal any ligament damage in the star left-hander’s throwing elbow, Sale told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) yesterday.  For now, Sale will continue to rest following a platelet-rich plasma injection shot, and he’ll be re-evaluated in six weeks.

While any visit to Dr. Andrews is usually considered as an ominous sign by fans and pundits (and as a harbinger of possible Tommy John surgery), Sale described his diagnosis as “not great news, but about as good as we could get.  We rest, I think maybe four to six weeks, get on a throwing program and get back to it.”

With the Red Sox sitting six games out of a wild card slot, postseason availability may be a moot point for the entire roster, though Sale in particular seems like a longshot for the playoff roster even if Boston does make a miracle run over the season’s final six weeks.  It was already known that the PRP shot’s six-week recovery period would cost Sale the remainder of the regular season, and Sox manager Alex Cora told media that it would “probably…be almost impossible” for Sale to be ready to contribute in October.

This will mark the second straight year that Sale has been limited by a late-season injury, as shoulder issues limited him to just 17 innings from July 28, 2018 until the end of the 2018 regular season.  It’s possible Sale could have pitched more if the Sox were in a pennant race rather than comfortably coasting to an AL East title, though even while cautiously deploying Sale during the playoff run, the lefty posted an uncharacteristically middling 4.11 ERA over 15 1/3 postseason innings.

All these injury questions loom large given that Sale’s five-year, $145MM extension with the team doesn’t begin until the start of the 2020 season.  Sale fully expects to be ready for the start of the next season, though between Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox have $79MM in 2020 salary committed to three starters with checkered health histories.

Sale has a career-worst 4.40 ERA over 147 1/3 innings, though that ERA has largely been boosted by a career-high 19.5% home run rate.  ERA predictors such as FIP (3.39), xFIP (2.94) and SIERA (3.00) paint a much more forgiving picture of the southpaw’s performance in 2019.  His 13.32 K/9 is still elite, and Sale’s .283 xwOBA is in the 81st percentile of all pitchers.  That said, Sale also has a 36% hard-hit ball rate, by far the highest of his career.

Rafael Devers’ Star Turn

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Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.

Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.

Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.

How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.

Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.

To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Chris Sale Out For Remainder Of Regular Season

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5:17pm: The team update does have some bad news: Sale has received a platelet-rich plasma treatment and will be shut down for at least six weeks. He’ll be reevaluated at that time.

Whether there’s any possibility of Sale appearing in the postseason isn’t known. But with less than six weeks to go before the end of the regular season, it’s now certain he will not be able to help the club make a last-ditch run at sneaking into Wild Card position.

The update doesn’t fill in any blanks regarding the underlying issues in the joint. But given the course of treatment, it seems reasonable to presume that the medical team has identified something beyond inflammation alone.

4:04pm: If you’re a Red Sox fan, you may now safely exhale. Boston lefty Chris Sale will not require Tommy John surgery, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link).

Precisely what is wrong with Sale’s elbow isn’t yet clear. But it seems that a visit to Dr. James Andrews did not reveal anything beyond the inflammation that initially sent the southpaw to the injured list.

We’ll keep updating the situation as further information emerges. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes (via Twitter) that the club is preparing to release a statement on the topic of Sale’s health.

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