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Red Sox Announce Coaching Staff Changes

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The Red Sox announced several notable changes to the coaching staff under manager Alex Cora. In particular, the club will be hiring a new pitching coach duo.

While the Boston organization will retain the services of pitching coach Dana LeVangie and assistant pitching coach Brian Bannister, both will be reassigned. The former will join Steve Langone (who had been manager of advanced scouting) as pro scouts. Bannister will become VP of pitching development, thereby turning his attention to the organization’s farm system.

In addition, the club announced that Andy Barkett will not return as the assistant hitting coach. He had been in that role since the 2018 season, working alongside hitting coach Tim Hyers.

It isn’t entirely clear whether the Red Sox are contemplating any further changes to the staff, though it seems reasonable to presume that they’ll retain the remaining coaches. The club has continued to move ahead with fairly significant decisions even though it still lacks a single chief of its baseball operations department.

Eddie Romero At Peace With Betts' Contract Stance

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  • The site has already thoroughly explored the ongoing contract outlook for Red Sox superstar Mookie Betts. To recap, the club’s forthcoming CBT trapeze act, Betts’ impending arbitrational raise, and the player’s apparent ambivalence to signing an extension with the team have all coalesced to the point where the near-unthinkable–a trade involving the near-peerless Betts–may be a consideration this offseason. One factor that won’t figure into Betts status for 2020? Organizational tension. As noted in a piece from Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com, the four executives* in charge of Sox operations in the wake of the Dave Dombrowski firing–including assistant GM Eddie Romero–are not holding Betts’ businesslike approach to negotiation against him (link). “I think he’s doing what’s in the best interest of Mookie and I think that’s what athletes should do,” Romero told Cotillo. “Every situation of these is case-by-case. Mookie has been the one who has sacrificed his body and has put in the work. He has the right to decide what he wants to do.” In addition to Romero, team president Sam Kennedy and chairman Tom Werner both comment in Cotillo’s piece on their faith in Betts as both a person and a player, and Romero goes as far as to say that the player has “earned” the right to hit free agency. While this dialogue could just be seen as an encouraging bit of rationality in the front office realm, it is fair to wonder, for those reading tea leaves, whether such a congenial atmosphere could be foreshadowing to an amicable parting of ways between player and team.

Red Sox Notes: Benintendi, 2013 Draft

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  • Andrew Benintendi put on some weight last winter in an attempt to add more power to his game, though in the wake of a down year, the Red Sox outfielder tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that the new goal is “to get lighter and more athletic this offseason.”  Many tabbed Benintendi to break out into superstardom in the wake of his impressive 2018 season, though he ended up hitting only .266/.343/.431 over 615 PA in 2019.  Some nagging injuries played a role, though Benintendi’s added bulk didn’t translate into more power, as he posted a lower slugging percentage and fewer homers (13) than in 2018.  Benintendi is hoping that better health and a more back to his old speed-based game will result in a better 2020 season.
  • Also from Bradford’s piece, he notes that Trey Ball and Teddy Stankiewicz have reached minor league free agency and could be unlikely to remain in the Red Sox farm system.  Ball was chosen seventh overall in the 2013 draft while Stankiewicz was Boston’s second selection (45th overall) from that same class, though neither player has reached the big leagues.  Bradford takes the opportunity to look back at a draft year that ended up as almost a complete miss for the Red Sox, as only five (Mauricio Dubon, Carlos Asuaje, Matt Thaiss, Gabe Speier, and Kyle Martin) of the 40 players selected have reached the majors, and none ever suited up in a Boston uniform.  Still, the 2013 draft class did plant some indirect seeds for future success — Asuaje was part of the trade package the Sox sent to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel, while Speier was included as part of the Rick Porcello trade with the Tigers.

Looking For A Match In A Mookie Betts Trade

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First of all, there’s more than a decent chance that Mookie Betts will still be a member of the 2020 Red Sox.  As per Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy, the team’s intention to get payroll under the $208MM luxury tax threshold is a “goal but not a mandate,” so it isn’t as if the Red Sox are going into any sort of fire sale mode.  While it seems the club will trim some salaries, they could achieve a lot of those savings in other areas (i.e. other trades or non-tenders, or J.D. Martinez could opt out of his contract) before fully exploring the idea of trading the 2018 American League MVP.

This being said, it wouldn’t be much fun if this post was titled “Looking To Pour Cold Water On A Fascinating Trade Possibility.”  And, with Betts still firm in his intent to test the free agent market after the 2020 season, there’s certainly a chance he will be wearing another uniform anyway on Opening Day 2021.  For a Red Sox organization that is looking for a creative way to shed salary and reload its minor league system, trading Betts before his final year of team control is an option that should at least be on the table, if certainly not one to be taken lightly.

Mookie BettsBetts earned $10.5MM in 2018 after defeating the Red Sox in an arbitration case, and his epic MVP campaign saw his salary rise to $20MM in 2019.  After hitting .295/.391/.524 with 29 homers over 706 plate appearances last season, Betts is in line for another big raise in third and final trip through the arb process.  Matt Swartz will be publishing MLBTR’s official arbitration projections within a few weeks, though he has informed me that Betts is currently projected to earn $27.7 or $27.8MM for the 2020 season (depending on whether Betts’ base 2019 salary is increased by a bonus should he win a Gold Glove).

That number certainly looms large in any discussion of a Betts trade, given that several teams may balk at committing that much money to a single player (even a superstar like Betts) if they have luxury tax concerns of their own.  Plus, a team trading for Betts would have to be expecting to have him for one season at the most.  Betts has been so adamant in exploring free agency that it’s very unlikely that he pulls a Paul Goldschmidt and signs an extension with a new team rather than finally get a crack at the open market.

With only one year of Betts on offer, the Red Sox know that trading the outfielder won’t solve all their problems.  There’s no chance, for instance, of another payroll-clearing blockbuster like Boston’s legendary August 2012 trade with the Dodgers, since Betts lacks the long-term appeal that Adrian Gonzalez (the Dodgers’ primary target) held for Los Angeles.

Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December.  Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer.  That said, Goldschmidt was also only making $14.5MM in salary in 2019, whereas Betts’ 2020 salary could be almost double that number.

Let’s go through the other 29 teams to see if we can find a fit as a Betts suitor…

No Chance

The Marlins, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are all rebuilding.  And the Red Sox would never trade Betts to the arch-rival Yankees, as amusing as it would be to see New York somehow land another Boston superstar almost exactly 100 years after the Babe Ruth deal.

Probably Not

The Rockies don’t have much salary wiggle room to add an expensive player like Betts.  Likewise, payroll restraints will likely keep the Pirates and Diamondbacks out of the mix, though Arizona GM Mike Hazen knows Betts well from their time together in Boston.  The Brewers also likely face similar financial restraints, plus they don’t have much elite young talent to grab Boston’s interest.  The Rangers are another team without much in the way of blue-chip minor league talent, and while Texas is planning to spend more as the team moves into its new ballpark next season, longer-term acquisitions would seem to make more sense for the Rangers than a win-now move like acquiring Betts.  Likewise, the Giants are more apt to pursue a long-term option if they go after any premium players at all (i.e. their interest in Bryce Harper last winter).

I put the Cubs a tick above the other “probably not” teams because they’re under increasing pressure to win in 2020, and could potentially be open to some type of creative swap that could see Chicago and Boston shift around several of their undesirable contracts, in addition to sending Betts to Wrigleyville.  But there would seemingly be a lot of moving parts in such a deal, and the Cubs have their own set of luxury tax concerns.  Plus, while the Sox and Cubs have made a few minor trades since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs’ baseball operations department, one wonder if Red Sox management could be hesitant about sending a star player Epstein’s way.

Probably Not, AL Contenders Edition

The Red Sox wouldn’t have quite the same reservations about sending Betts to another AL rival as they would about putting him into the Yankee pinstripes, but moving him within the AL East to the Rays seems unrealistic.  The Sox probably also wouldn’t be too keen to further strengthen the Astros’ juggernaut lineup, though Houston is already facing something of a luxury tax crunch with its own crop of star players.  The Indians have taken steps to cut back spending over the last year and can quite likely be ruled out of a Betts pursuit, as much as Cleveland is still trying to keep its contention window open for as long as possible.

While neither the Twins or Athletics are big spenders, it’s possible either team could see a Betts trade as a unique opportunity that merits a one-year payroll spike.  Trading for Betts could be seen as a souped-up version of Minnesota’s strategy from the 2018-19 offseason, which making short-term acquisitions in lieu of major financial commitments.  Acquiring Betts would cost more than just money, of course, and it remains to be seen if the Twins or A’s would be open to giving up the minor leaguers necessary to pry him away from the Red Sox.

Makes Some Sense

I put both the Nationals and Cardinals leaning closer to the “probably not” category, though trading for Betts would be an eye-popping way for either team to reload if Anthony Rendon or Marcell Ozuna was lost in free agency.  Trading for Betts could be seen as a one-year stopgap for teams that are strongly trying to contend in 2020, and the Nats or Cards could then let him walk in free agency and pursue a longer-term star in the 2020-21 offseason (a pursuit that would likely include an attempt to re-sign Betts).  It’s rather doubtful that Washington would be eager to deal from a relatively thin farm system, however, while St. Louis may have used up most of its expendable but MLB-ready pieces in the Goldschmidt trade.

The White Sox flirted with the idea of adding a superstar to the ranks with their pursuit of Harper and Manny Machado last offseason, and while Betts would be a much shorter-term addition, it would certainly announce the end of Chicago’s rebuild in a major fashion.  If you’re wondering why the Pale Hose would look to add Betts for 2020 when they’re far more than just one player away from contention, the club has explored such a tactic in the past — the White Sox made an offer to the Orioles about acquiring Manny Machado in the 2017-18 offseason, when Machado was also a year away from free agency.

As incredible as it would be to see Betts and Mike Trout in the same outfield, the Angels probably aren’t willing to move top prospects for one year of Betts, especially given how GM Billy Eppler has worked hard to reload a once-barren farm system.  Still, the firing of manager Brad Ausmus hints at an increasing impatience within Angels ownership, and Eppler is also entering the last year of his contract, so I can’t entirely rule the Halos out as a potential dark horse.

The Braves and Dodgers each have the prospect depth to get Boston’s attention, though neither team is likely to swap much of its top talent for just one year of Betts since neither is exactly in outright “win-now” mode.  It could be argued that Los Angeles could be a bit closer to this category if the Dodgers fall short of another World Series, though the Dodgers have tended to save their biggest trades for the July 31 deadline (when they have a firmer idea of their needs) rather than the offseason.

The Win-Now Teams

Since Betts is only signed through 2020, his most logical trade matches are the teams who definitely want to contend next season, and could be most open to a bold deal to make a postseason berth happen.

As much as Phillies GM Matt Klentak has insisted that he is looking to build a sustainable contender, he’ll be expected to more immediately start bearing the fruits of the Phils’ rebuild process and the team’s splashy 2018-19 offseason.  Philadelphia’s 81-81 record has led to rumblings that manager Gabe Kapler could replaced, and another down year could also put Klentak’s own job security in question, though the general manager is signed through 2022.  The Phillies made big trades for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura last winter, though whether they have enough young talent left (or at least enough they’re willing to part with) to acquire Betts remains to be seen.  Also, as much as Betts would upgrade the Phils’ middling offensive production, pitching would seem to be Philadelphia’s much more pressing need.

Perhaps no GM is under as much of a microscope as Padres general manager A.J. Preller, as executive chairman Ron Fowler is on record as saying that “heads will roll” in the organization if San Diego faces another “embarrassing” season.  Assuming that the Red Sox would be okay with making another big trade with the Padres in the wake of the controversial Drew Pomeranz swap in 2016, a Betts trade would be the kind of major transaction the Padres seemed to be on the verge of making all last offseason, but never completed despite talks about numerous star players with multiple teams.  Even if the Padres are more than one player away, the club’s highly-regarded minor league pipeline has so much depth that they could afford to spare a few pieces for Betts and still boast a top-five system.  Would a Betts trade be the wisest long-term move?  Not really, but after nine straight losing seasons, some type of step towards competitive baseball is definitely needed.

The Reds are a club in more pressing need of lineup help, and since president of baseball operations Dick Williams has set the playoffs as a firm goal for 2020, Betts could very well be a target.  Betts’ salary wouldn’t be as big an issue as it would seem for a smaller-market team since the Reds are also planning to spend more.  Though Williams has also hinted that the Reds are more apt to explore free agency rather than trades, these plans for an aggressive winter make Cincinnati seem like a solid bet to at least discuss a trade with the Red Sox.

The Mets further thinned out an already shallow farm system in their July trade for Marcus Stroman, and Betts’ salary could prove problematic for a team that has never been too eager to spend despite operating in the New York market.  That said, the Mets are firmly planning to contend next year, and GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already shown a penchant for headline-making trades in his first season on the job.  Betts would be such a clear and obvious solution to the Mets’ longstanding center field problem that, while it’s not exactly a “one player away” scenario for a team with so many bullpen questions, putting Betts alongside the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis makes for an awfully scary lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Red Sox Will Not Retain Assistant Hitting Coach Andy Barkett

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The Red Sox have decided not to bring back assistant hitting coach Andy Barkett, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported. The 46-year-old had been in the role for two seasons.

Further coaching decisions aren’t yet known, though Speier notes that head hitting coach Tim Hyers is expected to return in the same capacity. While Barkett is said to have been valued as a communicator, Speier suggests that an analytical approach may be preferred in the role.

Red Sox CEO On Betts, JDM, Luxury Tax

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Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy met with the media for a postmortem on the 2019 season Monday. At a time when the future of superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez is uncertain — Betts is a free agent after 2020 who has repeatedly voiced a desire to test the open market, while Martinez can opt out of the final three seasons of his contract next month — Kennedy acknowledged that there “is a way” to keep both Betts and Martinez on the roster but added that doing so “will be difficult” (Twitter links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

Such comments only figure to fuel speculation that Betts could be made available in a what would be a blockbuster trade this winter, although the Sox have given no firm indication that he’ll be shopped. Betts earned $20MM this season in just his second trip through the arbitration process, and it’s likely that his salary will jump into the $30MM range next year. Betts didn’t replicate last year’s MVP production nevertheless put together yet another brilliant all-around season. In 706 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old batted .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 40 doubles, five triples and 16 stolen bases. He posted flat-out elite defensive marks, per virtually every metric, for the fourth consecutive season, as well: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, +7 Outs Above Average.

As for Martinez, he’s signed for another three years at a total of $62.5MM. He’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal this offseason, meaning he’d need “only” to top a three-year, $60MM commitment in free agency in order to come out ahead. That’s not a given, as he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer and face some questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) when negotiating with National League clubs. But, asked just last night about sticking in Boston or searching for what would perhaps be his fifth team in five seasons, Martinez replied that he “kind of like[s]” moving around and wouldn’t mind doing so again if need be.

Payroll became an issue with the Red Sox last year when the team was quite clearly doing everything in its power to avoid crossing the third and final luxury tax threshold in free agency. Boston did nothing to address its bullpen outside of some low-profile rolls of the dice, and the team’s lack of bullpen depth proved costly in the long run. Still, significant additions would’ve come with a 75 percent dollar-for-dollar luxury hit, and the Boston ownership group demonstrated that even an organization with that level of deep pockets has its limits.

The Red Sox currently have “only” about $151MM counting against their luxury tax bill in 2020. That’s well south of the $208MM cutoff for the baseline luxury threshold, but that $151MM projection only includes currently guaranteed contracts. In other words, it doesn’t yet factor in arbitration raises for players whose salaries have yet to be determined. Not only will Betts be in line for an enormous raise on this year’s $20MM salary, but the Red Sox will also need to negotiate raises for Eduardo Rodriguez ($4.325MM in 2019), Brandon Workman ($1.15MM), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM), Sandy Leon ($2.475MM), Steven Wright ($1.375MM), Matt Barnes ($1.6MM), Heath Hembree ($1.3125MM) and Andrew Benintendi ($717K). Obviously, some of those players could be traded or non-tendered, thus eliminating the need to worry about potential raises.

One of the biggest questions facing ownership is whether the team is comfortable paying the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season. The number of successive seasons is important, because penalties escalate with each consecutive year above the line. As a third-time offender, the Red Sox would be subject to a 50 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over $208MM. They were taxed at a 30 percent rate in 2019 and 20 percent in 2018.

Kennedy plainly stated today that dropping beneath the luxury tax base of $208MM is a “goal but not a mandate” (Twitter link via Speier). The Red Sox, of course, are in the process of seeking out a new leader for their baseball operations department after firing Dave Dombrowski earlier this month, but the quartet that is heading up baseball ops an on interim basis — assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreria — have discussed scenarios in which they’d exceed the luxury tax in early discussions surrounding the team’s offseason approach and 2020 plans.

Obviously, the health and well-being of the team’s top two starting pitchers will be paramount not only when forecasting the team’s 2020 playoff chances but also in determining what types of additions need to be made over the winter. To that end, O’Halloran informed reporters today that the club anticipates both Chris Sale and David Price will be ready for Spring Training. If so, they’d return to join right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the aforementioned Rodriguez. Complicating matters for the Sox is that each of Sale, Price and Eovaldi delivered mixed results, at best, throughout injury-shortened seasons and now represent question marks more than sure things. Not only will the team need to foster some additional depth, but adding a reliable source of innings to help round out the rotation seems likely to be a goal.

If the Sox do indeed aspire to dip back below the tax line, then there could be a wide-ranging series of changes to the roster this winter. However, nothing from today’s press conference seems to suggest that any sort of rebuild is in the offing. O’Halloran noted that while resetting the luxury line at some point would obviously be beneficial, the club’s goal is to build a championship-caliber roster (Twitter link).

JD Martinez Comments On Opt-Out

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Eyebrows were raised from Charlestown to South End today when, at the questioning of Boston Globe report Pete Abraham, Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez seemed to express ambivalence about the prospect of returning to the team in 2020 (link). Martinez has a much-discussed opt-out to consider this offseason, and Abraham asked him whether the prospect of joining his fourth team in five years is truly an attractive one. “I don’t mind moving around,” Martinez told the reporter. “I kind of like it.”

That’s hardly the sort of “I love being here” boilerplate you often hear when players are asked about potential opt-outs or extension prospects. It may be a bit dramatic to read too much into the comments of a player likely eager to conclude what has been a frustrating season in Beantown, but the 32-year-old will indeed have a difficult decision to make this offseason. As part of the five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston in February of 2018, Martinez has an opt-out this offseason that would pay him $2.5MM if he elects to forego the remaining three years and $62.45MM on his contract. Essentially, Martinez will have to reconcile his desire to stay in Boston long-term with the ability of his agent Scott Boras to find a deal elsewhere in excess of that $62.45MM guarantee.

If Boras wants to market Martinez as the best DH option on the vine this season, he will no doubt be able to assemble some convincing presentations. Though this season didn’t quite see the former Astro, Tiger, and Diamondback replicate the offensive assault he placed on baseballs in the previous two years (170 and 167 wRC+ figures in 2018 and 2017, respectively), he still mounted a .305/.383/.559 line in 2019–output resulting in a 139 wRC+.

Though the market has not been kind to corner/DH types in recent years, Martinez should represent a more appealing free agent option than, say, Edwin Encarnacion, over whom the Yankees hold a $20MM club option; Nelson Cruz, still a Statcast darling at age 39, could challenge Martinez for DH supremacy among free agents, but the Twins would be smart to exercise that player’s $12MM club option for 2020.

Put another way: it’s quite possible that this year’s DH market will consist of Martinez, Avisail Garcia, and a handful of past-30 question marks like Mark Trumbo. If Martinez’s comments to Abraham are any indication, that might be a market context he is willing–if not eager–to place himself within.

No Talks Between Red Sox, Eduardo Rodriguez On Extension

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Eduardo Rodríguez has been the Red Sox most reliable starter this year. Sitting on 196.1 innings entering today’s final start against the Orioles, Rodríguez stands a good shot of eclipsing 200 innings for the first time in his career, which would make him one of only 15 pitchers to do so this season. His strikeout (24.6%) and walk (8.8%) rates are right in line with his previous career work, but a massive uptick in ground balls and improved health have helped the 26 year-old to a career-best season, with the high innings total paired with a solid 3.80 ERA.

With Rodríguez having emerged as a mid-rotation starter, many teams would be interested in locking him up long-term. The Red Sox, though, haven’t initiated any such conversations, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. Nevertheless, the hurler indicated he’d be amenable to a long-term arrangement if the team were to come knocking. “I still have two more years here. We’ll see how that goes. I love it here and I want to stay here for a long time. If they want me to, I’ll stay here,” Rodríguez said. “I haven’t had that conversation yet so I don’t know how that feels.”

That there haven’t been any talks as of yet isn’t too surprising considering the current state of the organization. Having fired Dave Dombrowski, the Sox are operating with a four-person crew heading up baseball operations for the stretch run, with the organization’s permanent leader still to be determined. No doubt, Boston will look to put a long-term front office structure in place before turning to key offseason roster decisions.

Also throwing a wrench into matters is the organization’s seemingly forthcoming effort to slash payroll significantly. Red Sox ownership expressed a desire this week to get underneath the competitive balance tax threshold of $208MM in 2020, a huge cut from the team’s estimated $240MM+ luxury tax figure this season. With the club already having $150MM+ on the books next season, not counting arbitration raises, there figures to be quite a bit of roster turnover.

While most of the attention has been focused on Mookie Betts, who is on track to become a free agent after next season, the situation with Rodríguez could likewise go a number of ways. Rodríguez and the Sox agreed to a $4.3MM salary to avoid arbitration last offseason, with two more years of arb forthcoming. Between his innings total, run prevention and 19 wins (which surely won’t matter to the Sox’s new front office head but will factor into his arbitration status), E-Rod looks poised for a significant raise in the coming months.

Buying out free agent seasons would only exacerbate the organization’s CBT concerns. Luxury tax calculations are based on average annual value of the players’ contracts, not actual yearly sum. Even if the Sox were to backload a Rodríguez extension, the present CBT calculation of any deal would be rather lofty, certainly higher than if the parties again settled on a one-year agreement to avoid arbitration.

If Boston indeed follows through on cutting payroll, there’s a chance Rodríguez even becomes an offseason trade candidate instead. Again, however, there’s little indication on how the organization plans to proceed until they bring in a new head of baseball ops. Dealing away Rodríguez would be difficult for a team that no doubt plans to contend in 2020, as the Sox’s rotation mix is filled with uncertainty. Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and David Price all have their health question marks, while Rick Porcello is slated to hit free agency.

How the Red Sox choose to proceed this offseason will be among the winter’s most fascinating stories. Whether any arrangement can be hammered out to keep the youngest member of the rotation in the fold for the long-term certainly bears monitoring.

Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers

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The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.  In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.

It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019.  Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball.  There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150, though a minus-6 in Defensive Runs Saved.

Long considered one of the game’s top prospects, Devers had a nice debut in 2017 before struggling in his first full MLB season in 2018, yet now he looks firmly established as a fixture in Boston’s lineup.  To that end, Devers is already under team control through the 2023 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign.  The Sox will surely look to lock up at least two or three of his free agent seasons in any extension, though it would come at a high price.  Devers will only be 27 years old on Opening Day 2024, and that relatively early entry into free agency will definitely raise his price tag on the open market (assuming he keeps up his current form, of course).

Last spring saw an unprecedented burst of extensions around the game, as a wide variety of players chose financial security over the uncertainty of an increasingly tight free agent market and the potential for labor strife when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2021 season.  It’s possible Devers could follow suit, as he hasn’t banked an overt amount of money in his career (minimum salaries and his original $1.5MM international signing bonus) and might want to guarantee himself that proverbial “first fortune.”  Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, who had another high-profile client in Luis Severino ink an extension with the Yankees last February.

Alex Bregman also signed a five-year, $100MM extension with the Astros back in March, which Bradford suggests could be a model for a Devers contract.  Bregman had hit .282./366/.500 with 58 homers over 1548 PA and 361 games at the time of his deal, while Devers has a .281/.335/.501 career mark with 63 homers through 1422 PA and 333 games.  However, Bregman is also over 2.5 years older than Devers, and wouldn’t have hit free agency until after his age-28 season.  Bregman is also a more defensively adept player that the Astros can count on to continue as a third baseman for years to come, whereas the Red Sox could still have an eye towards eventually shifting Devers over to first base down the road.

Perhaps the better way to view Bregman’s extension as a comp for Devers is in the specific terms of the agreement.  Bregman’s extension doesn’t actually begin until the 2020 season (covering his three arbitration years and first two free agent years), and thus the luxury tax hit associated with the deal doesn’t apply until next year.  Had Bregman’s 2019 season also been factored into the contract, it would’ve given him a luxury tax number of roughly $16.66MM, and left Houston with little wiggle room to stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold.  Exceeding that threshold for one year in search of a World Series title might not have been a big deal for the Astros, though with Bregman still on a minimum salary, Houston is still projected to avoid any tax payments even after making a big deadline splash by acquiring Zack Greinke.

As it relates to Devers, one would think the Sox would explore a similar extension, one that wouldn’t begin until 2021 (his first arbitration-eligible year).  This would be a huge boost to the club in its goal to get under the luxury tax threshold this winter, since ducking under the $208MM limit and maintaining a competitive roster would be much more difficult if Devers suddenly had a $15-$20MM average annual value attached to his services.

Latest On Mookie Betts

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As the Red Sox season mercifully nears its conclusion, a difficult decision looms on the horizon for the club and whoever it hires to assume the vacant general manager post. With a contract extension looking unlikely for all-world outfielder Mookie Betts, it looks like a “realistic possibility” that he will be traded this offseason, writes Christopher Smith of masslive.com.

With just one year of team control remaining before he could hit free agency, the Red Sox will have to weigh whether to deal Betts now for a haul of controllable players, or ride it out for another year and recoup a draft pick after extending the qualifying offer. It’s worth noting that such a momentous decision will surely be a topic of discussion in GM interviews, though ultimately the decision will likely be made by ownership.

For his part, Betts has given ample reason to believe that he intends to test the open market after the 2020 season, at which point the Red Sox could only receive draft pick compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere. Thus, if the organization wants to retain the most value in exchange for its best asset, trading Betts would be the way to go. Of course, Betts could still re-sign with the Red Sox after testing free agency, but the Red Sox certainly wouldn’t bank on that outcome.

Otherwise, the Red Sox could simply hang on to Betts and pencil him into the leadoff spot for another crack at the postseason. Assuming he leaves at the end of the year, the Sox would only collect a draft pick in this scenario, but if the team wants to maximize its chances of returning to the Fall Classic, Betts needs to be in the lineup. He’s unquestionably been one of the most productive players in baseball over the last few years, ranking second behind only Mike Trout in fWAR since 2016.

But with Red Sox ownership intent on cutting payroll to sneak under the luxury tax, now might be the time to cash in on Betts’s trade value. In his final arbitration season, Betts is a virtual lock to fetch a salary approaching $30MM. Last offseason, he reeled in a $20MM payday that established the benchmark for players in his service class. After another fantastic season, a similar uptick in pay would place him in the neighborhood of $30MM. It would be hard to reconcile such a hefty price for one player with a top-down mandate to shed payroll.

To be sure, there’s considerable money coming off the books with Rick Porcello and Pablo Sandoval’s contracts expiring (with the potential for more should J.D. Martinez opt out of his deal). However, that will be offset somewhat by extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts kicking in next year. Add in pay raises for arbitration-eligible players, and the Red Sox may already be approaching that tax number before any additional spending in the offseason. And with limited options to trim expenditures across the roster, Betts looks like a logical candidate to go.

Certainly, though, the Red Sox won’t force a deal if the price isn’t right. The club will surely insist on a handsome return for its MVP, and the trade market will have some sway in the team’s decision to pull the trigger on a deal. If Boston’s offers are underwhelming, there’s no pressure to trade Betts; keeping him around for another year can only help the team’s chances in 2020.

Interested teams will be wary that Betts may only be a one-year rental, and will therefore be hesitant to surrender promising youngsters who could benefit their club for years to come. It’s a risk, sure, but there are precious few opportunities to add a 26-year-old MVP in the prime of his career, and making such a move instantly boosts any team’s odds.

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