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Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest

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DECEMBER 7: The Angels, Nationals and Dodgers are also in the market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

DECEMBER 6, 8:01pm: The Red Sox are also expressing interest in Lugo, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).

DECEMBER 6, 6:39pm: Right-hander Seth Lugo has been drawing interest as a starting pitcher and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that working as a starter is Lugo’s preference as well, with the Padres one of several teams interested in him.

It’s been a while since Lugo has been tried out in a rotation role for more than a brief stretch. His career high for starts in a big league season is 18, which came back in 2017. Since that time, he’s been primarily working out of the bullpen, serving as an effective reliever for the Mets.

In 278 career games, only 38 of them have been starts, but Lugo has a career 3.48 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s fared much better out of the ’pen, as his ERA is 2.91 there while 4.35 as a starter, with more strikeouts as a reliever to match.

Despite that split, as mentioned, it’s been quite some time since Lugo’s been given an extended stretch in the rotation. That means most of those stats came from Lugo’s first two years in the big leagues, when he made 26 of those 38 career starts. It’s possible he’s capable of producing better results now that he has more experience. He also has a larger pitch mix than the average reliever, something that could help him move through a lineup a few times. Last year, he had four pitches that he threw at least 13.7% of the time, with his curveball leading the way at 33.5%, followed by his four-seamer at 29.3%, his sinker at 21.9% and his slider at 13.7%. He also has a changeup that he mixed in 1.6% of the time, though it’s been 7.1% for his career.

For the Padres, they lost a couple members of their rotation to free agency in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea, while also trading MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals. Nick Martinez opted out of his contract but was quickly re-signed and seems to have a chance of retaking a rotation spot himself, after getting bumped to the bullpen. They currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the front three spots. It would be surprising to see them go into the season with the last two spots in their rotation dedicated to unproven options like Martinez and Lugo, especially when they just reportedly offered Trea Turner $342MM. But it’s possible they could also add a fourth starter and have those Martinez and Lugo battle for the fifth spot with one of them going to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. Though Lugo reportedly prefers to start, it’s unknown how he would value a non-guaranteed starting role on a contender like the Padres against a clearer path to starting on a less-competitive team.

San Diego’s payroll limits are an ongoing question. As mentioned, they just made a massive offer to Turner, but some reporting indicates they were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily dedicate those resources to other players. As of right now, Roster Resource calculates their competitive balance tax figure at $230MM, just barely under the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. With the club still seeking to upgrade in the rotation and elsewhere, going over the line seems inevitable. Lugo isn’t likely to break the bank as a back-end rotation candidate but every dollar over the line will count. Since the Padres are set to be a third-time payor, they will be subject to a 50% tax on all spending over the line and even higher penalties if they go over by $20MM or more.

Red Sox Have “Momentum” With Xander Bogaerts

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1:15pm: Abraham tweets that there is “momentum” between Bogaerts and the Sox.

11:40am: The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts are meeting this morning, according to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. The sides are in “heavy discussions,” according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Bogaerts, of course, has spent his entire career with the Sox thus far, having been signed as an amateur back in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors by 2013 and had a tremendous breakout season in 2015, firmly establishing himself as the club’s shortstop. He’s held down that job ever since, making at least 134 starts at short in each full season from 2015 onwards, as well as 52 starts in 2020.

Bogaerts signed an extension with the club in 2019, which was generally considered to be very team-friendly. It had the potential to keep Bogaerts in Boston through 2026, though it also afforded him the opportunity to opt out after 2022. Bogaerts just continued to mash in the four years since that extension was signed, hitting 82 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .304/.376/.503 from 2019 through 2022. That level of production has made it clear for some time that Bogaerts would opt out, which is perhaps why the Sox went out and grabbed Trevor Story in free agency a year ago. The club reportedly made a feeble attempt at another Bogaerts extension back in April, but that went nowhere and Bogaerts eventually opted out.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has continued to insist that retaining Bogaerts is a priority for the club, despite Bogaerts seemingly getting stronger interest from other clubs like the Padres, Cubs, Phillies and Diamondbacks. However, it’s possible that there is now some more urgency towards a reunion. As Abraham notes, there was a call last night between Boston’s owners and executives, with the contents of that conversation perhaps leading to today’s meetings.

Bogaerts entered free agency as one of the “big four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Turner has already come off the board, securing an 11-year, $300MM deal with the Phillies. MLBTR predicted that Bogaerts would get $189MM over seven years, or $27MM per season. However, the market has generally been strong so far this offseason, with most players beating their projections, sometimes significantly.

The Sox have primarily been active in the relief market so far, adding Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez to their bullpen. Those deals have brought their 2023 payroll to $157MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax calculation of $177MM. The Sox paid the luxury tax this year but would still be shy of next year’s $233MM threshold even if they added close to $30MM on a Bogaerts deal. However, by going over in 2022, they’ve dented their compensation if Bogaerts signs elsewhere. Since he received and rejected a qualifying offer, the Red Sox would get a draft pick if he joined another team but their CBT payor status bumps that pick to after the fourth round when it would have been just before the third round otherwise.

In the event a deal does get done, it’s likely that the club would use a similar infield mix to last year with Xander at short, Story at second and Devers at third. Devers is entering his walk year, meaning it’s possible that a similar “will they get it done” situation plays out next year with him instead of Bogaerts. For 2023 though, a Bogaerts signing would likely push Enrique Hernández back into center field on a full-time basis, lessening the club’s need to worry about that spot.

Willson Contreras Has Received Preliminary Multi-Year Offers From Cardinals, Astros

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The market for the top free agent catcher continues to come into view. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports that Willson Contreras has received preliminary multi-year offers from both the Cardinals and Astros at this week’s Winter Meetings. A third team has also put forth an offer, according to Wittenmyer, though the identity of that club is unknown (but is said to not be either Boston or Tampa Bay). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch characterizes discussions more informally as the team also juggles trade possibilities but notes there has been talk about the possibility of a multi-year offer.

Both St. Louis and Houston have been tied to Contreras numerous times through the offseason, but it’s still notable those teams have put proposals on the table. John Denton of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that a fourth year could be an obstacle in Contreras’ talks with St. Louis. According to Denton, the Cards are prepared to meet the three-time All-Star’s asking price on an annual basis but are reluctant to go past three seasons. Whether another team is putting a fourth year on the table isn’t clear, although Wittenmyer adds that no teams have thus far been willing to go five years.

St. Louis skipper Oliver Marmol confirmed reports the Cards would sit down with Contreras at the Winter Meetings. Goold has suggested the team’s preferred solution is to acquire A’s backstop Sean Murphy, although that’d require surrendering highly-regarded young talent — and the A’s are reportedly looking for MLB-ready players in return. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweets there’s a growing sense the Cardinals could find their new catcher in free agency, and he characterizes Contreras as the target that’d be most likely in that scenario.

The Astros interest in Contreras dates back to the trade deadline, but owner Jim Crane nixed an agreed-upon swap that’d have brought him in from Chicago. It seems they’re less concerned about him acclimating to a new pitching staff with an offseason to prepare than they’d be if he were added in the midst of a pennant race, and the multi-year proposals on the table reflect that. Houston has Martín Maldonado as their top backstop at present, and Contreras would be expected to rotate between catcher, left field and designated hitter if they pulled off a deal.

At the end of the season, the 30-year-old declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs. He’d cost any signing team at least one draft pick, while the Cubs stand to receive draft compensation in the highly likely event he departs. MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $84MM contract for Contreras at the start of the offseason.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Wong, Vazquez, Contreras, Heaney

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“No progress towards a deal was made” when the Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts’ agent Scott Boras met yesterday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes.  Earlier reports suggested that other teams had pulled ahead of the Sox in the race to sign the All-Star, though chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Bogaerts was still a major priority for the club.

As one might expect, Boras highlighted the amount of interest his client is generating from multiple teams, while not closing the door on any other suitor.  In regards to the Red Sox, Boras said “I just know we continue to talk and have dialogue and continue the process with them.  The Red Sox, they kind of have four-star ownership. These guys have proven over time that they win and they pursue winning….I think everyone around them understands the Sox without ‘X’ are So-So.”

While puns are part and parcel of the Boras experience, his agency’s general policy against letting a player’s former team make a so-called final offer is also notable in regards to Boston’s chances.  “We’re not the matching kind. We let teams know that they have to assert,” Boras said.  “We don’t ever hold back from reaching an agreement with any team and certainly we don’t give market preference to anyone.  Otherwise, I think the free agent right would be dampened if you did.”

It remains unclear if re-signing Bogaerts is still a realistic proposition for the Red Sox, and many of the team’s actions over the last year (i.e. the signing of Trevor Story, or a low extension offer to Bogaerts last spring) would seem to suggest that the Sox are preparing for a future without Bogaerts on the roster.  Another hint could be Boston’s interest in Kolten Wong, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that the Sox had some talks with the Brewers before Wong was dealt to the Mariners.

A source tells Speier that if the Red Sox had traded for Wong, “it 100 percent would not have taken [them] out of the market” to re-sign Bogaerts.  The Sox would have hypothetically used Bogaerts, Story, and Wong in the middle infield mix, or possibly even flipped Wong to another team in a trade if Bogaerts had indeed been re-signed.  While Wong seems overqualified for such a part-time role, “the Sox want to explore opportunities to add high-end depth” after injuries hampered the position-player mix in 2022.

If Bogaerts’ future in Boston is still up in the air, another familiar face might be a possibility for the team, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) reports that the Red Sox were meeting today with Christian Vazquez’s agents.  Cotillo did note that this meeting might not directly involve Vazquez, as MDR Sports Management also represents several other players, including free agent catchers Robinson Chirinos and Roberto Perez.

Reese McGuire and Connor Wong are Boston’s incumbent catchers heading into the 2023 season, with prospect Ronaldo Hernandez and recent waiver claim Caleb Hamilton also in the mix.  It would seem like the Sox are at least exploring the market for more help behind the plate, given how Boston has been mentioned as one of the many teams with trade interest in the Athletics’ Sean Murphy.  However, Cotillo reports that there is “nothing going on” between the Red Sox and the top catcher on the free agent market, Willson Contreras.

Andrew Heaney was also on Boston’s radar this offseason, and Cotillo tweets that the Sox were one of the many teams who made the left-hander a contract offer.  The Red Sox fell short, however, as Heaney opted to sign with the Rangers for two years and $25MM in guaranteed money.

Red Sox Making Push To Sign Tommy Kahnle

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9:34am: The Red Sox are one of multiple teams in “advanced talks” with Kahnle, who is expected to make a final decision on where he’ll sign as soon as today, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports.

2:45am: The Red Sox are making a push to sign reliever Tommy Kahnle, and there’s a chance a deal comes together soon, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Cotillo does note that other teams remain in the mix for the former Dodgers reliever.

Kahnle, 33, pitched 12 2/3 innings for the Dodgers in 2022 to a 2.84 ERA, striking out 30.4% of batters and walking 6.5%. He did struggle a little bit with the long ball, but the small sample size makes it hard to read too much into that. It was Kahnle’s first season back from 2020 Tommy John surgery, but after making his Dodgers debut in May he went on the IL with right forearm inflammation and didn’t return until September.

Kahnle was drafted by the Yankees in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, but the Rockies picked him in the 2013 Rule 5 draft. He wound up performing as a solid reliever for the Rockies, pitching to a 4.41 ERA in 102 innings over two seasons in Colorado before he was traded to the White Sox.

His career took off in Chicago as he blossomed into dominant relief arm. In parts of two seasons there, he pitched to a 2.56 ERA across 63 1/3 innings. 2017 was particularly dominant, as he struck out batters at a ridiculous 42.6% rate. That prompted the Yankees to acquire him with Todd Frazier and David Robertson at the 2017 deadline, and he became a valuable member of the Yankees’ bullpen, pitching to a 2.70 ERA down the stretch in New York.

He struggled mightily in 2018, dealing with shoulder tendinitis early in the season. While he return in late-May, a surge in walks saw him limp to a 6.56 ERA that year. He bounced back in 2019 though, tossing 61 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball.

While there’s a history of injuries and some inconsistency there, there’s also no doubting the talent and late-inning stuff of Kahnle when fit and firing. As Alex Speier earlier noted, Kahnle has had many suitors this winter. The Red Sox, however, have been vocal about their interest in upgrading the roster, and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has spoken of looking to add as many as nine players this winter.

The bullpen has already been a focus for them, with the team inking Joely Rodriguez to a one-year, $2MM deal and Chris Martin to a two-year, $17.5MM pact. The possible addition of Kahnle would give them another strong option as Bloom looks to bolster the bullpen ahead of the 2023 season.

Chaim Bloom On Bogaerts, Pitching, Offseason Additions

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9:34PM: Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe has some updates on the pitching search, citing right-hander Tommy Kahnle as a target for the Red Sox bullpen.  The Sox haven’t made much progress in recent talks with Eovaldi, and while the Red Sox are known to have interest in Kodai Senga, the Japanese star hasn’t yet visited Boston while making the rounds to visit other teams.

On the hitting front, Abreu was offered a three-year deal “in the low- to mid-$40MM range,” well below the three years and $59.5MM Abreu received from Houston.

6:47PM: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke with the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter thread) and other reporters today at the Winter Meetings, outlining his team’s extensive plans for the rest of the offseason.  Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez represent Boston’s most notable additions thus far, and Bloom said the Sox could yet add at least two more relievers to augment the bullpen.

All in all, Bloom said the team wanted to add “seven, eight, nine” players to “build the team we want to have.”  This list includes three or four position players, as well as at least one starting pitcher who can bring “upside, leadership, and consistency” to the rotation, as well as innings.

On paper, it looks like the Red Sox are aiming for a repeat of their first three offseasons under Bloom’s leadership, which saw the club made a wide array of moves big and small to shuffle up the roster.  This semi-overhaul added both everyday players and more complementary parts to the roster, with a general focus in acquiring controllable players and veterans on shorter-term contracts — with the major exception of Trevor Story, and his six-year, $140MM pact from last March.

Bloom’s tactics have drawn a mixed reaction at best from Red Sox Nation, as the team’s last three seasons have consisted of one trip to the ALCS (in 2021) and two last-place finishes (2020 and 2022) in the AL East.  Several of Bloom’s less-heralded moves have panned out, but several have also not borne fruit, and Boston’s relative lack of spending on big-ticket players has also drawn criticism given the team’s traditional large-market ways.  The Red Sox have remained at least a top-10 payroll team over Bloom’s three seasons and even exceeded the luxury tax line last year, though many of the team’s biggest expenditures were signed before Bloom joined the organization.

The Red Sox have quite a bit of money coming off the books this winter, of course, with Xander Bogaerts being the club’s most prominent free agent.  Reports from the weekend indicated that the Sox weren’t one of the primary members of Bogaerts’ market, and that the Red Sox had yet to make “a competitive offer” to the shortstop.

Bloom pushed back against that speculation today, saying “have certainly made offers to him, we’ve been engaged, and we’ll stay engaged.”  Bogaerts is still a chief priority for the Red Sox, though Bloom expected the shortstop to check out all of his options in his first trip to free agency.

Re-signing Bogaerts and solidifying the shortstop position for years to come would naturally have a big impacton Boston’s plans to remake its position-player mix.  Bloom noted that Story or Enrique Hernandez could potentially take over at shortstop if Bogaerts departed, but if he stayed, Story would likely remain at second base and Hernandez could bounce around the diamond, perhaps primarily staying in center field.

Story and Hernandez figure to play everyday roles somewhere, and Rafael Devers has third base covered and Alex Verdugo will get regular work at one or both of the corner outfield spots.  However, there’s quite of bit of flux elsewhere around the diamond and quite a bit more opportunity to add new faces, depending on how much playing time the Red Sox want to give to such younger players as Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, or Jeter Downs.  For instance, the Sox technically have plenty of first base/DH candidates in Casas, Bobby Dalbec, and Eric Hosmer, but the team still made a big push to sign Jose Abreu before Abreu decided to join the Astros.

Pursuing Abreu would seem to indicate a greater willingness to spend on the front office’s part.  A very big contract will obviously be necessary to re-sign Bogaerts, and bringing Nathan Eovaldi back will likely also require a healthy multi-year commitment.  Bloom said that incumbent free agents Eovaldi and Michael Wacha were both still possibilities as the team explores the pitching market.

Bobby Dalbec Available In Trades, Rays Interested

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The Red Sox are making Bobby Dalbec available in trade talks, according to Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal. McAdam adds that the Rays are one team that has expressed interest.

Dalbec, 27, is coming off a down year in Boston where he hit just .215/.283/.369 with 12 home runs and ultimately found himself optioned back to the minors in September. Dalbec struck out a whopping 33.4% of the time against an 8.2% walk rate. All told, that was good for a wRC+ of 80, or 20% worse than league average.

A former top-100 prospect, Dalbec burst onto the stage in the big leagues with an impressive, if short, sample in 2020. That year, he hit eight home runs in 23 games and amassed a 151 wRC+, although he did strike out in 42.4% of plate appearances. He came back to earth a bit in 2021, although still provided above-average production, slashing .240/.298/.494 with 25 home runs in 133 games.

Dalbec came through the minor leagues as a third baseman, but has spent most of his time in the big leagues at first. He did log some time at third, while also making a couple of short cameos at both middle infield positions. He was below average at first base, with Outs Above Average marking him at -1 and Defensive Runs Saved giving him -6 this year.

It’s not easy to see a path to much playing time in Boston for Dalbec, particularly coming off a poor season. Triston Casas made his debut in ’22 and looks set to get plenty of reps at first or DH, possibly splitting time with Eric Hosmer (if he stays on the roster). Over at third, Rafael Devers is locked in at third for next season at least so it makes some sense that the Red Sox might see what they can get for a former top prospect still young enough to turn things around.

Ever since trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates, the Rays have looked likely to be in the market for a first baseman. They’ve already been linked to the non-tendered Dominic Smith, and Dalbec would make sense for them as a buy-low, bounceback candidate. The right-handed hitter is still one year away from being arbitration eligible, so there’d be a decent amount of appeal there for smaller market teams in particular.

While the Rays make plenty of sense as a trade destination, it’s likely there’d be a few teams interested, perhaps some with a view to moving him back to third base. After all, Dalbec is only a year removed from a solid 106 wRC+ season and plenty of teams would surely take a chance on him as a cheap, power hitting bench bat with starter upside should he rebound.

Latest On Aaron Judge

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7:32PM: Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke with reporters (including Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand) about Judge, saying that the Yankees had exchanged several offers with the outfielder’s camp, and Cashman had spoken with Judge’s agent earlier today. The club doesn’t have any deadline for Judge to make a decision. The Yankees haven’t gotten any word about whether or not they will get the opportunity to counter or match any final offer Judge might receive from any other team.  In another interview with YES Network’s Meredith Marakovits and Jack Curry (Twitter link), Cashman said the team didn’t have any plans to meet with Judge in person during the Winter Meetings.

3:49PM: There isn’t much doubt that Aaron Judge’s next contract will top the $300MM mark, though the exact distance over $300MM and the length of the deal are still unknown.  Recent reports have suggested that the Yankees offered Judge an eight-year pact worth roughly $300MM, and that a minimum of nine years will be required to sign the AL MVP.

That nine-year demand might already be a reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) hears some speculation from industry sources that Judge has a nine-year offer in hand.  The Yankees’ previous offer wasn’t said to be their final bid, so it could be that New York added an extra year to retain their longtime star.  Or, it could be that the Giants (another team known to be in hot pursuit of Judge) have floated a nine-year offer, or perhaps even an unknown team.

On the topic of the ever-popular mystery teams, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that other teams beyond the Yankees and Giants “remain on the periphery” of Judge’s market.  With the numbers this high, of course, only certain big-spending clubs are realistic candidates to sign Judge in the first place, unless a mid-payroll team decided to make an unexpected splurge.

The Red Sox are no strangers to big payrolls, and they have at least checked in with Judge’s representatives, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  As intriguing as it would be to see Judge switch sides in the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, the Sox are “not one of the most aggressive teams” in the Judge race, as Cotillo characterizes Boston’s interest more as “due diligence” rather than a true push to sign the slugger.

The Dodgers are the only other team publicly known to have some interest in Judge, though preferably on a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote over the weekend.  A nine-year asking price could put Los Angeles out of the running, but given the Dodgers’ financial resources, they can certainly afford a longer-term deal if they are determined to land Judge.  With Trea Turner now gone to the Phillies and Justin Verlander (a prime Dodgers target) signing with the Mets, however, it is worth wondering if the Dodgers might now more firmly pivot towards Judge.

Rick Porcello Announces Retirement

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Former American League Cy Young winner Rick Porcello seemingly stepped away from baseball with scarcely a word about his decision to do so following the 2020 season, but in a new appearance on the Bradfo Sho with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the 33-year-old righty publicly confirmed for the first time that he has indeed retired.

Rick Porcello

“I wanted to be with my family,” said Porcello, who also tells Bradford that he and his brother built a house together in the two years since he’s last taken a big league mound. “I wanted to get back into that type of lifestyle and be around them because every year that you’re gone is another year where your parents are getting older, and your brothers are getting older.”

Porcello acknowledged that his struggles in his final two Major League seasons muted interest during the 2020-21 offseason, though it’s known that he at least drew some interest in a potential reunion with the Tigers that winter. No deal ever materialized, however, and Porcello has now apparently opted to dedicate his time and efforts to his family and to helping grow youth baseball in Vermont, where he and his brother built their aforementioned home. In addition to the full audio of the interview, Bradford has several lengthy quotes from Porcello on his decision to retire, on his struggles in 2019-20, on building that house and on his commitment to youth baseball in his column at WEEI.

Though his final game came in his age-31 season, Porcello still pitched a dozen full seasons in the Majors, thanks largely to the fact that he debuted as a 20-year-old rookie less than two years after the Tigers selected him with the No. 27 overall pick in the draft. Porcello finished third in 2009’s American League Rookie of the Year voting on the heels of a 3.96 ERA that he spun over the life of 170 2/3 innings.

Porcello was briefly optioned to Triple-A Toledo the following summer but otherwise never returned to the minors and practically never missed a start due to injury. The right-hander landed on the injured list just once in his 12-year career — a three-week absence due to a minor triceps strain in Aug. 2015. Porcello was the consummate workhorse, averaging 31 starts and 185 innings per season from 2009-19. He worked to a 4.36 ERA in 2037 1/3 innings along the way, and for a few years in the midst of that span, he peaked as one of baseball’s better pitchers.

At age 25 in 2014, Porcello enjoyed a breakout season, tallying a then-career-high 204 2/3 innings with a 3.43 ERA. Strikeouts were never a big part of the sinker specialist’s game, but Porcello thrived that season due to a tiny 4.9% walk rate, a strong 49% grounder rate and an average of just 0.79 homers per nine innings pitched. The Tigers, looking for some extra punch in their lineup, traded Porcello to the Red Sox in a deal that netted Yoenis Cespedes, Gabe Speier and Alex Wilson at the 2014 Winter Meetings, when both Porcello and Cespedes were just a season away from free agency.

However, Boston apparently had little intent of simply “renting” Porcello for a year, as the Sox inked him to a four-year, $82.5MM contract extension that spring. Porcello’s first season at Fenway set off alarm bells, as he tied a career-worst 4.92 ERA. The red flags disappeared when he not only rebounded in 2016 but shattered all of his career rate stats en route to a 3.15 ERA, an MLB-best 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a narrow win over former teammate Justin Verlander in 2016 American League Cy Young voting.

That season proved to be Porcello’s individual peak, but Porcello called the 2018 season “the crowning achievement in my career” due to a more team-oriented accolade, as he and the Red Sox shook off a pair of ALDS exits in 2016-17 to take home a World Series title. Porcello started 28 games for the ’18 Red Sox and pitched to a 4.28 ERA, adding 15 1/3 frames of 3.52 ERA ball in the postseason that year — including a Game 4, series-clinching ALDS victory at Yankee Stadium in which he held Boston’s archrivals to one run in five strong innings.

The following season, 2019, marked the beginning of the end for Porcello’s run in the Majors. He was tagged for a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings before heading out into free agency and signing a one-year deal with the Mets. True to form, he took the ball every fifth day for the Mets during the pandemic-shortened season and started a dozen of their 60 games, but Porcello’s struggles continued as he logged a 5.64 ERA in 59 innings.

In chatting with Bradford, Porcello acknowledged unsuccessfully trying to keep up with leaguewide changes that saw four-seam fastballs and sliders become increasingly en vogue; indeed, he threw a career-high 31.1% four-seamers and career-low 24.5% sinkers in 2019, and in 2020 he threw a career-high 29.2% sliders. None of those tweaks worked in his favor, and Porcello added that the pandemic afforded him “new perspective on life” and played a role in his decision to prioritize time spent with family rather than seek out a rebound campaign on the mound.

Though he’s retired at a young age, Porcello accomplished plenty in his 12 big league seasons. He’ll walk away from the game with a 150-125 record, a 4.40 ERA, 1561 strikeouts and just 489 walks in 2096 1/3 big league innings (plus another 40 innings of 4.73 ERA ball in the playoffs). Porcello was a top-three Rookie of the Year finisher, a Cy Young winner and a World Series champion in a career that FanGraphs valued at 29.6 wins above replacement. Between his original contract out of the draft (back when MLB deals were allowed for draftees), his arbitration earnings, his Red Sox extension and his Mets free-agent deal, Porcello earned more than $128MM. Best wishes to Porcello and his family in life after baseball.

Red Sox Haven’t Made “A Competitive Offer” To Xander Bogaerts

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Such varied teams as the Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, Phillies, and Cubs have all been linked to Xander Bogaerts so far this winter, and the list of suitors could stretch even further beyond these teams.  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that between eight and 11 teams have shown interest in Bogaerts, and yet the Red Sox weren’t “positioned in that group as of Sunday afternoon.”  According to two sources, Bogaerts’ former team hasn’t yet made “a competitive offer” to re-sign.

This relative lack of interest on Boston’s part is perhaps a little surprising, given how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has said on multiple occasions that retaining Bogaerts is one of the team’s top priorities.  However, as Abraham notes, there has been plenty of indications that the Red Sox haven’t been entirely committed to keeping the All-Star, ranging from their lowball extension offer last spring to the team’s signing of Trevor Story last offseason as a seemingly backup plan for shortstop if Bogaerts departed.

While a front office can obviously work on multiple things at the same time, it is perhaps also telling that the Sox have largely been focused on other roster areas thus far in the offseason.  The Red Sox made a big push to sign Jose Abreu before Abreu landed in Houston, and are among the many teams interested in Mitch Haniger.  Boston is also exploring a wide range of pitching options for the rotation and bullpen, and the Sox have already made two notable additions in relievers Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez.  This isn’t to say that the Red Sox couldn’t make an offer to Bogaerts at any time, but it would seemingly have to be a very substantial offer to outpace the several other teams who have shown a lot more direct interest.

There hasn’t been much indication that the Sox could pivot to one of the other star free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson) rather than Bogaerts, and the team might just use some combination of Story, Enrique Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Jeter Downs, and the newly-acquired Hoy Park to handle the two middle infield positions.  Long-term, Marcelo Mayer is Boston’s shortstop of the future, and prospect Ceddanne Rafaela could also be a factor at shortstop or other positions after a breakout 2022 season at high-A and Double-A ball.

Bogaerts rejected Boston’s qualifying offer, and since the Red Sox exceeded the luxury tax in 2022, their compensatory pick (if Bogaerts signed elsewhere) would fall only after the fourth round of the 2023 draft.  It wouldn’t make for much of a consolation prize for one of the best players in recent franchise history, especially since exceeding the tax threshold didn’t even result in a winning record for the 2022 Red Sox.

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