Examining The Red Sox’ Potential Trade Chips
As we noted earlier today, the potential 2020 season will bring a host of new rules governing player transactions. We haven’t heard anything yet regarding how that’ll take place. But supposing there’s an opportunity at some point to strike trades, it’s quite likely that non-contending teams will be as anxious as ever to make deals.
But wait … are the Red Sox a contending team? Obviously they aren’t going all out, having just traded one of the game’s very best players in Mookie Betts along with high-priced veteran David Price. The team may maintain that wasn’t driven exclusively by luxury tax considerations, but there’s no way to sell it as enhancing the team’s 2020 outlook. And the club did manage to dip just under the luxury line — making it all the more important that the season end up being played, so that the anticipated competitive balance tax rate reset isn’t wiped out.
At the time, we might’ve wondered whether a first half boom could’ve led the Red Sox to turn into a mid-season 2020 buyer. It would’ve been hard to sell away from a winning club, at least. But then came the whole global pandemic thing, which halted any thoughts of a typical season and trade deadline. And in the midst of that the club lost its most talented pitcher when Chris Sale went under the knife for Tommy John surgery.
The Boston organization still projects as an above-average team. And the odds of a surprise would increase in a short-season format with an expanded postseason. But you have to recognize that the American League is extremely top-heavy. On paper, the Sox are no match at all for the best clubs.
Meanwhile, new Red Sox baseball ops leader Chaim Bloom has already pulled the band aid off when it comes to trading veterans. He’s looking to 2021 and beyond and the fan base knows it. None of them are deciding whether to show up for games this season anyway. Under the circumstances, the Boston organization should be pretty motivated to trade short-term veterans for whatever long-term value it can get. With every team facing renewed and unexpected future financial concerns, there could be some wild opportunities out there.
If and when Bloom returns to the trading floor, he won’t have a Betts to work with. It’s quite unlikely he’ll seriously entertain talks for long-term core player such as Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. It’s not likely the team will be keen to discuss Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vazquez given that each has multiple seasons of affordable control remaining. Even younger players like Alex Verdugo and Michael Chavis surely aren’t going anywhere.
But Bloom sure has a lot of other guys that would be worth talking about …
- Brandon Workman, RP: In retrospect, it’s surprising there wasn’t more talk of Workman in the offseason. He ran up over seventy frames of sub-2 ERA ball last year with big strikeout and groundball numbers. And he was approximately the only pitcher in baseball that seemed immune to the long ball, though walks remain a concern. With only a $3.5MM salary, Workman is a really nice target for the many teams that will be looking to compete as hoped without adding financial obligations.
- Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: The salary considerations go in the opposite direction here, as Bradley’s $11MM walk-year payout isn’t very friendly to the pocketbooks. He’s not likely to be a sought-after player unless he really makes a rebound at the plate. But he has shown that ability before and is a quality up-the-middle defender.
- Kevin Pillar, OF & Mitch Moreland, 1B: These veterans are both going to have to show what they’ve got on the field before any other teams take a look. But each could be a mid-season rental target.
- Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: Perhaps the most valuable potential Red Sox trade target that could realistically be shopped, the quality southpaw only just reached his 27th birthday after a productive and healthy 2019 season. He’s due a reasonable $8.3MM (on a full season basis) with one more arb year to go, so the Red Sox will probably intend to hang onto him for 2021 … though their plans could probably be changed with the right offer.
- Matt Barnes, RP: He keeps producing monster strikeout numbers with good but not great results, due in part to some free pass proclivities. There’d be a ton of interest if the Red Sox make him available, but as with Rodriguez, there’s little reason for the team to sell short. Barnes is earning a full-season $3.1MM salary in 2020 with another pass through arbitration to come thereafter.
- J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: Might there be added interest with a temporary National League DH? That’d be a risky strategy since the designated hitter could disappear in 2021, particularly given Martinez’s significant post-2020 obligations ($19.375MM apiece in 2021 and 2022). The slugger’s now less likely than ever to opt out of the remainder of his deal.
- Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez & Collin McHugh, SPs: None of these hurlers would be moved at the moment, but perhaps that could change if mid-season trades are possible. The former is owed a lot of coin, but could conceivably be swapped in the right circumstances — if he returns to form. The latter two are buy-low free agent signees who’d be possible deadline flips in a normal year. Perez does come with a 2021 option.
AL Notes: JDM, Red Sox, Astros, Click, Yanks, LeMahieu
Let’s check in on some of the American League’s highest-profile clubs…
- Major League Baseball handed down its decision on Boston’s sign-stealing scandal from its World Series-winning season in 2018 a couple weeks ago, stripping the Red Sox of their second-round pick this year and suspending scout/replay coordinator J.T. Watkins for the upcoming campaign. Count designated hitter J.D. Martinez among those who are not pleased with Watkins’ short-term ban. The superstar slugger told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, “They just ruined this guy’s career with no evidence.” In regards to the overall punishment, Martinez said to Abraham: “If they went to court with that, it would get thrown out. There was nothing there. The judge would laugh.”
- Speaking of teams that have recently been embroiled in sign-stealing scandals … Astros general manager James Click succeeded Jeff Luhnow atop the front office in the offseason as a result of the prior regime’s transgressions. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle profiles Click, how he has adjusted to the job, how the rookie GM’s trying to work through the coronavirus and how he’s attempting to change the culture of a franchise in turmoil. As you’d expect, Click has stayed in touch with owner Jim Crane and new manager Dusty Baker during the pandemic. Regarding the Astros as a whole, Click said to Rome: “I have a better feel for the organization now. While it’s not ideal to do it remotely, it is certainly something that can be done. It’s hard to say how much more of a feel I have for the organization, but definitely more, and I’m hoping they also have a feel for me. We’re all still getting to know each other.”
- As we covered last week, the Yankees could lose one of their MVPs, infielder DJ LeMahieu, when free agency opens next offseason. Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News argues that they shouldn’t risk it, writing that the Yankees need to do all they can to keep the soon-to-be 32-year-old LeMahieu from hitting the market with an extension. LeMahieu stated in March that he and the Yankees haven’t engaged in “serious” negotiations, so it’s unclear how much of a priority he is for New York. However, you can’t go against Ackert’s point that he’s a key part of the team’s current roster. LeMahieu played all over the Yankees’ infield after signing a two-year, $24MM contract going into last season, slashed .327/.375/.518 with 26 home runs and 5.4 fWAR in 655 plate appearances, and was in the running for AL MVP honors.
Collin McHugh On Rehab Progress, Red Sox Role
In an appearance on the podcast of Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (audio link), veteran hurler Collin McHugh discussed his opportunity with the Red Sox and the potential return of baseball. It’s an interesting listen from a thoughtful ballplayer.
McHugh joined the Boston organization on an incentive-laden, one-year MLB deal in early March. That means he spent only a brief amount of time in camp before the spring activities were halted.
Still, McHugh says he was glad to get rolling with his new organization at the time. A December elbow procedure “cut a lot of options” that he had been exploring. Once he began to build back up, “a lot more interest started to snowball really quickly” and McHugh was able to join the Boston organization.
Now, there are signs or progress even as McHugh works out remotely. He says he’s “about a month into my throwing program” — which certainly bodes well for his availability once the season gets underway. McHugh is engaged in daily contact with the team.
Once the 2020 campaign gets started, McHugh says, he anticipates functioning in a flexible capacity for the team — perhaps moving between the rotation and the bullpen or working in a role that he described as a “hybrid-type thing.” That’ll surely depend upon the precise needs of the roster and McHugh’s progress by the time play resumes.
As ever, it’s also interesting to hear the different perspectives of players on when and how MLB can return to action. Most of the interview involves McHugh’s well-considered thoughts regarding the timing and nature of a return of the sport.
Jon Lester Discusses His Future
As he waits with the rest of us for the return of baseball, Cubs southpaw Jon Lester chatted with Rob Bradford of WEEI.com about his current activities and future plans. It’s well worth a full read, but we’ll cover a few items of particular hot stove relevance.
Lester certainly doesn’t sound like a player who’s preparing to wrap up his career at the end of his contract. He spoke not only of preparing for the upcoming season but of his future on the mound.
Lester’s free agent deal includes a 2021 vesting/mutual option that would be guaranteed at $25MM if he throws 200 frames in 2020. (With a hefty $10MM buyout, the actual cost difference is $15MM.) The innings target will be prorated to account for a shortened season. Regardless, it’s difficult to imagine the Cubs letting him reach it.
“We’ll figure that out one way or the other,” says Lester. “I will either be here or be a free agent. … I’m open-minded to anything.”
Anything? Anything at all? It may not mean much, but Lester went on to drop an eyebrow-raising line that’s sure to pique the interest of Red Sox fans: “Absolutely it would be cool to go back and finish my career where it all started.”
As Lester noted, there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty to be dealt with before considering where he’ll throw in 2021. “Hopefully, I’m still a good enough caliber pitcher that the want of my services will still be out there for people,” he says. Lester went on to note: “I’m not getting any younger and coming off a year like I had last year, this [season delay] isn’t going to help me.”
It’s hard to imagine there won’t be a market for Lester’s services, even if he’s not the same guy he once was. He allowed more than four earned runs per nine for the second time in three seasons last year. ERA estimators didn’t expect better based upon his peripherals (4.26 FIP; 4.35 xFIP; 4.49 SIERA). Then again, Lester also made 31 starts again … as he has for a remarkable dozen-straight seasons. (Actually, he typically takes the ball 32 or 33 times.)
Lester may not be capable of producing to his own lofty standards, but he was still a quality rotation piece in 2019. He’s also not wrong that, at 36 years of age, his desirability on the open market will depend in large part upon what he’s able to show in 2020 — if indeed there is a season. Lester tells Bradford that he’s staying active but also trying not to “waste bullets down here in the backyard or at some high school,” instead saving them while waiting for “a date to ramp it up.” Here’s hoping he’ll have a chance to do so soon.
Alex Verdugo At Full Health
Newly acquired Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo seems to be healing up nicely during the pandemic pause, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. He had been sidelined with a stress fracture in his lower back when Spring Training was halted.
When last we heard from Verdugo, a key piece of the offseason blockbuster with the Dodgers, he had resumed baseball activities. But his outlook remained largely unclear, particularly given the vagaries of lower-back issues.
Now, Verdugo says, he’s at full health. Soon to turn 24, the left-handed-hitting outfielder is optimistic that he’ll be ready to roll whenever the second spring for the 2020 season begins.
“I’m at such a good position mentally and physically that I’m not worried about (my performance),” he told reporters. “I’m just ready to go play.”
While he’s anxious to get back underway, Verdugo also acknowledged that getting back to action involves rather complicated considerations and says he doesn’t want to do so prematurely. Mastrodonato covers his opinions on the resumption of play in full.
[RELATED: What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?]
And what about the possibility of a lost season … such that the Dodgers would lose Mookie Betts to free agency before he suits up for them? Per Verdugo: “We can’t expect these things and for the Dodgers that’s a tough deal. But, hey, everything happens for a reason.”
Quick Hits: Bloom, Draft, Krause, White Sox, Rangers
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom described some of the challenges that will come out of the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s MLB Draft in a discussion with the Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Bloom’s organization is particularly aware of the value of an additional year of scouting, which allowed the team to select Andrew Benintendi in the first round in 2015—something that probably wouldn’t happen if teams’ exposure was limited to his nondescript freshman season the year before. But that’s precisely the scenario teams find themselves in now: they won’t have the same feel for which draft-eligible players would have taken an additional leap this season and might have to base those judgments on just a few weeks of play. In addition, the shortened format of the draft (no more than 10 rounds) could influence teams’ strategy, especially in the later rounds, where clubs might look to take risks on players who will command more than $20K (the maximum amount for which teams can sign undrafted players). All this means that more high school players might opt to forego pro ball in favor of a collegiate scholarship.
- Former Chicago Bulls front office executive Jerry Krause has received plenty of scrutiny recently, thanks to ESPN’s Michael Jordan docuseries, “The Last Dance.” But Krause’s tenure as the Bulls’ GM was bookended by a career as a baseball scout, where he worked most prominently with the White Sox. The Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales reflects on Krause’s astute eye and resolution as a scout; he was instrumental in swaying White Sox higher-ups to make a play for shortstop Ozzie Guillen (then a Padres minor-leaguer), who would of course go on to play 13 years and rack up 19.5 WAR with the South Siders—not to mention his role in managing the 2005 World Series team.
- Beginning May 15, the Rangers will institute pay cuts for some of their full-time employees, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Per Grant, employees above a certain salary threshold will have their pay reduced by roughly 10-20%, which will affect approximately half of the team’s full-time staffers. That said, there won’t be any layoffs or furloughs at this time. A number of high-rankings Rangers execs, including GM Jon Daniels, had already begun taking pay cuts in April, but this round will expand the scope of those measures. They’re one of just a few teams that won’t be paying teams in full through May, with a handful of teams implementing similar pay cuts, while the Rays have furloughed some of their employees.
10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles
Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.
Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.
Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.
Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.
Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.
Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.
Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.
Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.
Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).
Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.
Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.
Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.
Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.
AL Notes: Cora, Red Sox, Indians, Blue Jays
Ex-Red Sox manager Alex Cora was just suspended for 2020 thanks to the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach during their 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and president Sam Kennedy made it sound earlier this week as if they wouldn’t bring Cora back at the end of his ban, but Kennedy may be open to it after all (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Kennedy told “Ordway, Merloni & Fauria” of WEEI that Cora’s “a great baseball manager.” As for whether the Red Sox would rehire him, Kennedy said: “We’ll talk about that down the road. We just removed Ron Roenicke’s interim tag and he’s going to lead our club going forward. I think a lot of Alex’s future depends on how he approaches this suspension period.” For at least this season, Roenicke – Cora’s former bench coach – will manage the team.
More on a couple other American League franchises…
- The Indians have taken a step to compensate the majority of their employees for the foreseeable future during the COVID-19 pandemic. They’ve committed to paying their full-time staff their entire salaries through at least the end of June, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com report. Forty of the Indians’ senior staff members took pay cuts so the rest of the full-time staff could receive their typical salaries. The Indians have furloughed part-time workers and interns, on the other hand, but they could make the same amount of money or even more by way of unemployment benefits, according to Passan. While most of the league’s teams have committed to paying their non-player employees through May, the Indians are among the few that we know will extend beyond that point.
- As a result of the season postponement, two fans recently filed a lawsuit against all 30 MLB teams and ticket companies StubHub, Ticketmaster, Live Nation, and Last Minute Transactions because they haven’t been able to get a refund for tickets purchased for 2020. The Blue Jays are not among the teams that have refused to give fans their money back, however, president Mark Shapiro told Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. “We have fielded every single call and whenever there has been a hardship, or a circumstance, that has necessitated a refund, we have refunded those tickets,” said Shapiro, who added, “We have not fought any of those and will continue to do that.” Shapiro’s under the impression that the league’s “very close” to announcing “a broader policy on refunds and exchanges.”
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Judge, Cobb
Here’s the latest chatter from the AL East …
- So, that whole Red Sox sign-stealing saga is over with now … right? Not entirely, as Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic write (subscription link). The determinations of commissioner Rob Manfred create quite a few questions — not least of which involving his decision to focus the brunt of his punitive power on one Red Sox employee (replay operator J.T. Watkins). Manfred’s actions haven’t sated MLBTR readers, at least, according to the early results of our poll on the punishments. Perhaps the most interesting issue, from a broader perspective, involves the league’s responsibility for managing all this. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom puts it: “I also think structurally we ought to do everything we can to make sure that confusion can’t occur and that these aspects of our game are beyond reproach.” Another way to frame the matter: the rules and enforcement regime needs to be set up to ensure results rather than dealing with fallout on an ad hoc basis.
- It seemed the Yankees were going to spend the early part of the 2020 season dealing with another odd slate of injuries before the season went on pause. Now that star outfielder Aaron Judge has had plenty of time to figure out what was bothering him (rib stress fracture) and to recuperate … might that be avoided? MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that Judge is working out at the Yankees’ spring complex and taking his time to avoid any unnecessary complications. Judge says he expects to be ready for “doing a little more here in about a week or two,” at which point he can hopefully begin building towards baseball readiness. There’s still nothing close to a clear starting point for the 2020 season, so there’s obviously no rush.
- Alex Cobb‘s signing is one of several big-contract misfires that have hamstrung the Orioles over the years. But he had seemingly fully recovered from the hip problem that plagued him last year, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza writes. Cobb had a rough 2018 season and made only three starts last year, but there’s still time for the 32-year-old to provide at least some value. The best-case scenario probably would’ve been a bounce back during the first half of the 2020 season, potentially setting the stage for a mid-summer deal. Perhaps now the O’s will end up attempting to move Cobb — who’s owed $14MM in 2020 and $15MM in 2021 — over the ensuing offseason, depending upon what (if anything) he’s able to show this year.
MLBTR Poll: Red Sox Punishment
After a long wait, we finally learned of the official outcome of the Red Sox sign-stealing investigation. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred docked the team its 2020 second-round pick. He also suspended the club’s replay coordinator, J.T. Watkins, after determining that Watkins had at times used a TV feed during games to figure out an opponents’ signs and then conveyed that information to “a limited number of Red Sox players,” who could then attempt to apply it if they reached second base. There was evidently no evidence of a broader effort by team leadership, which (per Manfred) had in fact “consistently communicated MLB’s sign-stealing rules to non-player staff and made commendable efforts toward instilling a culture of compliance in their organization.”
Manfred took a much harsher view of the conduct of the Astros, whose World Series-winning 2017 club was judged to have engaged in a broad-based, long-running, and rather expansive effort to ascertain signs and convey them in real time to batters. The Houston organization was docked four top draft choices and $5MM, while its manager and general manager were hit with year-long suspensions.
A slightly lesser (season-long) ban has now been applied to former Astros bench coach and Red Sox manager Alex Cora, though Manfred made clear it was for his conduct while in Houston. Cora lost his job in Boston over the offseason after the Astros fired A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow. Former Astros player Carlos Beltran also departed his managerial gig with the Mets before it really even started.
Since the actions against Cora didn’t stem from his time with the Red Sox, it wasn’t really part of the punishment. The team will have to fill in for Watkins, though that action was obviously targeted primarily at him personally. As for the lost draft pick, Manfred made clear he levied the punishment because the Red Sox may have benefited, not because of any organizational failing.
When we polled the MLBTR readership on Manfred’s handling of the Astros case, most felt it was either on the mark or too light. How do you feel about his actions with regards to the Red Sox? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
Did Manfred Issue The Right Punishment To Red Sox?
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Too light 70% (7,229)
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On the mark 20% (2,024)
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Too heavy 10% (1,070)
Total votes: 10,323