Reds Rumors

We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote yesterday, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. Here are some names to chew on from the NL Central …

Brewers

The Brew Crew already reached two deals this winter, both of which are quite interesting for very different reasons. The Milwaukee organization reached a big new extension (that still feels team-friendly) with superstar Christian Yelich. And it placed a upside bet on young hurler Freddy Peralta, whose ERA hasn’t quite yet matched his talent.

Scanning the rest of the roster, the name that jumps off the page is Josh Hader. True, he just lost an arbitration hearing to the team. But he’s still got a big $4.1MM starting point to build from for three more seasons and his salary could go wild if the Brewers keep him in the closer’s role. Perhaps there’s a path to a deal, even if it doesn’t expand the Brewers’ control rights past arbitration much (if at all).

Likelier, perhaps, are highly talented youngsters Keston Hiura and Brandon Woodruff. The former isn’t even close to arbitration but seems like an easy bet to keep hitting. The latter is a year away from Super Two qualification, so this might be the best opportunity to get him locked in at a palatable price. Given the aggressive stance the Brewers took in the Peralta deal, you can’t rule out negotiations with fellow hurlers Adrian Houser and Corbin Burnes.

Cardinals

The Cards are known to be interested in working something out with franchise pillar Yadier Molina. It’s pretty likely they’ll get a deal done at some point given the obvious mutual interest.

Of greater long-term intrigue is the situation of staff ace Jack Flaherty. But odds of an agreement seem long, particularly after the club renewed his contract at a rather meager rate this spring. Perhaps fellow starter Dakota Hudson is a likelier target. If the club gets creative in exploring deals with the staff, relievers Giovanny Gallegos and John Brebbia might be approached, though neither is terribly youthful.

Two years out from free agency, Kolten Wong is a conceivable but hardly pressing potential target. It’s more interesting to contemplate an early pact with emerging utilityman Tommy Edman. But most intriguing of all? A pre-debut pact with top prospect Dylan Carlson. That would free the club to promote him whenever it wishes and perhaps secure a potential new franchise star for his entire prime.

Cubs

If you can’t trade ’em, extend ’em? Perhaps not in all cases, but the Cubs have a lot of quality players that could be targeted for extensions — now that the team has elected not to deal them over the winter and likely won’t have a chance to revisit its decision in the middle of the 2020 season. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber could in theory all fall in this bucket.

The likeliest candidate, though, is shortstop Javier Baez. He was never really on the block, so far as anyone knows, and there’s clearly mutual interest in a deal. Baez is two years from free agency but already well into bigger earnings via arbitration. Talks have been up and down thus far.

Otherwise, the Cubbies could explore ways of locking in lower prices on non-stars for the foreseeable future. What if — and believe me, this is a hypothetical — but what if the team saw some value in the right arrangement with a younger, less-established player? The most interesting possibilities: infielder Nico Hoerner, backstop Victor Caratini, and center fielder (for the time being, anyway) Ian Happ. Having already done a deal with David Bote, this sort of possibility can’t be ruled out.

Pirates

Thankfully, in this case the team has more or less provided its own list (through unnamed sources that spoke with reporters). Younger big leaguers Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman, and Joe Musgrove are all said to be of interest, as is top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes. Now that we know talks have been initiated, it’s a matter of seeing if anything gets done.

Notably absent from that group? Slugging first baseman Josh Bell. The 27-year-old is in his first season of arbitration eligibility after a big 2019 season. The absence of reporting doesn’t necessarily mean that Bell isn’t of interest, though he may be a bit spendy for the Bucs to commit to.

Beyond that, it gets pretty speculative. The Pirates have big hopes for high-upside youngsters Mitch Keller and Oneil Cruz, but probably want to see them develop more before thinking about a long-term contract.

Reds

The Cincinnati ballclub has made a host of interesting moves of late. But there’s still potential for greater contractual action with regard to a few in-house players.

Excellent right-hander Luis Castillo is easily the top target. He’s in classic starting pitcher extension territory as a 2+ service-class player with two full seasons of increasingly productive moundwork. The team can surely envision quite a lot of upside and he has some real incentive to dodge the risk of another MLB campaign before getting paid.

Perhaps there’s also an argument for considering talks with lefty Amir Garrett or reliever/pinch-hitter/CF Michael Lorenzen. If teams can strike deals with pitchers like Peralta and Aaron Bummer, then these guys can’t be ruled out.

It’s awfully intriguing to think about a deal for everywhere-but-nowhere man Nick Senzel. But his precise place in this organization has yet to be determined. While the team would probably buy in at the right price, he’s probably not going to sell himself short and buy into an uncertain situation. There are a few other conceivable candidates on this roster — outfielder Jesse Winker; starter Anthony DeSclafani — but it’s quite a bit harder to see a path to a mutually agreeable deal in those cases.

Nobody knows when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but we can still look forward to its start. With that in mind, we’ll continue our series on potential bounce-back players from each division, this time focusing on notable National League Central pitchers whose production fell off from 2018 to ’19.

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Cubs:

Undoubtedly among the greatest relief pitchers in baseball history, Kimbrel’s numbers careened off a cliff in his first season as a Cub. In fairness, though, Kimbrel didn’t have a normal offseason before finally joining the Cubs on a three-year, $43MM contract. The 31-year-old flamethrower went without a deal until the first week June, and he never really got on track after debuting later that month. Kimbrel battled elbow issues and threw just 20 2/3 innings, over which he allowed 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including a whopping nine home runs) and 12 walks. Although Kimbrel did strike out 30 hitters and continue to throw upward of 96 mph, it wasn’t enough to overcome the other problems. Considering what the Cubs have invested in him, not to mention the losses their bullpen suffered in free agency, it’s a must for him to return to form this year.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Cubs:

Jeffress was a lights-out part of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2018, but last season represented an enormous step backward. In fact, it went so badly for Jeffress that the Brewers – then vying for a playoff spot – released him during the first week of September. Jeffress wound up with a ghastly 5.02 ERA in 52 innings and saw his typical fastball go from 95.3 mph in 2018 to 93.8. He also lost 4 percent on his swinging-strike rate, almost 10 percent on his strikeout rate, and 8 percent on his groundball rate. Consequently, he was only able to secure an $850K guarantee in free agency.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Reds:

Bauer went from one of the absolute best pitchers in the sport two years ago to someone whom the opposition shelled after the Reds acquired him from the Indians at last summer’s trade deadline. The 29-year-old kept throwing hard, averaging about 95 mph on his fastball, but yielded 57 hits (including 12 home runs) en route to a 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings as a Red. Between the two teams, his combined 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP were each more than two runs worse than the production he logged in 2018. Bauer also experienced an almost 7 percent fall in groundball rate, and he wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero, ranking near the middle of the pack in multiple important categories.

Pedro Strop, RHP, Reds:

Strop, 34, had several terrific years with the Cubs, but last season wasn’t one of them. His average fastball dropped by 1.5 mph (93.6), his walk rate spiked to its highest level since 2012 (4.32 BB/9) and he gave up more home runs than ever (1.3 per nine). All of those factors helped lead to career-worst run prevention totals for Strop (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP), which came at a less-than-ideal time for the pending free agent. Strop’s subpar output last year stopped him from cashing in on the open market, but if he can rebound, the Reds will have a bargain on their hands at $1.825MM.

Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates:

MLBTR’s Steve Adams just took a more in-depth dive into the surprising struggles Archer has gone through as a Pirate. The former Rays standout has been a shell of himself since Pittsburgh acquired him from Tampa Bay in a July 2018 trade that looks incredibly lopsided in the Rays’ favor. But not all hope is lost for Archer, who – at the Pirates’ behest – grew too reliant on a sinking fastball that the opposition hammered. Archer bagged the pitch last summer and proceeded to post far better numbers during the second half of the season than he did before then, making the 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP, 4.14 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9 and 36.3 percent groundball rate he put up over 119 2/3 innings look somewhat deceiving.

Derek Holland, LHP, Pirates:

Holland resurrected his career two years ago in San Francisco, only to fall apart between the Giants and Cubs last season. While Holland made 30 starts in 2018, he had such a rough time a year ago that he spent most of it in the bullpen, where he amassed 43 of 51 appearances. The 33-year-old limped to a 6.10 ERA/6.08 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 and 2.13 HR/9, forcing him to settle for a minor league contract with Pittsburgh in the offseason.

Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals:

The first season as a Cardinal didn’t go well for Miller, whom they signed to a two-year, $25MM pact beforehand. The majority of his numbers, including a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP in 54 2/3 innings, went the wrong way. Miller, who barely walked more than one hitter per nine during his career-best season back in 2016, issued almost four and a half free passes last season. Moreover, he endured a 10.5 percent dip in groundball rate from 2018 and saw his home run-to-fly ball rate skyrocket to 21.6 percent. The 34-year-old has since dealt with some health troubles this spring, though the latest update on his status was encouraging.

Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers:

Burnes had a promising debut from Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2018. However, the spin rate darling’s propensity for surrendering homers proved to be his undoing last season. Burnes, 25, gave them up on 38.6 percent of fly balls, leading to an awful 8.82 ERA/6.09 FIP in 49 innings and canceling out a strong strikeout rate of 12.86 per nine and a borderline elite swinging-strike percentage of 17.2.

Corey Knebel, RHP, Brewers:

Knebel’s on the list for injury reasons, not ones related to performance. He was a huge piece of the Brewers’ relief corps from 2017-18, but Tommy John surgery kept him off the mound a season ago. Knebel, who underwent the procedure just under 12 months ago, had been lining up for an early May return before the game shut down, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. So, the longer baseball’s hiatus last, the better Knebel’s odds are of returning to his past role as a Brewers contributor over a full season.