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Trevor Rosenthal To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Veteran right-hander Trevor Rosenthal is slated undergo elbow surgery next week, the Tigers announced within their latest wave of injury updates on minor league players. The former All-Star has been attempting a comeback with the Tigers, but he’s now headed for a revision on a prior Tommy John procedure. Detroit also announced that infielder Ryan Kreidler underwent core muscle surgery and that lefty Miguel Del Pozo had Tommy John surgery.

Rosenthal, 33, hasn’t pitched in the Majors since the 2020 season and has just 39 big league frames under his belt since the conclusion of the 2017 season. Injuries have derailed the career of the former Cardinals closer, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017 and thoracic outlet surgery in 2021. Rosenthal also had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip during the 2021 season.

A healthy Rosenthal has proven himself capable of being one of the sport’s top relievers. From 2012-15, he boasted a 2.66 ERA and 30.4% strikeout rate, twice reaching 45 saves in a season along the way. His 2019 return from that 2017 Tommy John procedure was a disaster, but Rosenthal pitched 23 2/3 innings of 1.90 ERA ball while punching out 41.8% of his opponents during the shortened 2020 season. This will now be Rosenthal’s third surgery of note since his last big league pitch, however. He pitched in just three minor league games with the Tigers this year before landing on the injured list.

Kreidler, 25, has appeared in 37 games for the Tigers dating back to 2022 but has just a .165/.220/.209 slash in 102 big league plate appearances. He’s slashed .253/.374/.466 with 18 home runs and 22 steals through 446 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in his career, however, and is regarded as an above-average defender who can handle multiple spots around the infield (third base, shortstop and second base). He’s currently in physical therapy following the surgery. A timetable for his return wasn’t provided.

The 30-year-old Del Pozo returned to the Tigers on a minor league deal this offseason. He’d previously pitched 5 1/3 frames as a Tiger back in 2021 and also spent the 2022 season in their Triple-A bullpen, pitching to a 3.88 ERA in 53 1/3 frames. Del Pozo, who’s allowed 20 runs in 18 1/3 big league innings but has a more palatable 4.23 ERA in four Triple-A campaigns, appeared in just six games this season before landing on the injured list. The timing of this surgery will shelve him until late in the 2024 season and potentially all the way into the 2025 season.

Tigers Promote Brendan White

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The Tigers announced that right-hander Brendan White has been recalled to the active roster, with fellow righty Garrett Hill optioned out in a corresponding move. White was already on the 40-man roster but will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

White, 24, was a 26th round selection of the Tigers in 2019. He made some Rookie ball appearances that year but then the minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He has since jumped up the minor league ladder one rung per year. He spent 2021 in High-A, tossing 101 1/3 innings over 18 starts and eight relief appearances with a 4.17 ERA. He moved up to Double-A last year and was also moved to the bullpen on a permanent basis. He tossed 67 1/3 innings over 48 appearances last year with a 2.67 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 56% ground ball rate.

Since that move to full-time relief work seemed to suit him so well, the Tigers added him to their 40-man roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He has spent all of this year in Triple-A so far, logging 32 frames over 25 appearances. His ERA has jumped to 4.78 but that seems to be inflated by a .466 batting average on balls in play. His 29.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 52.2% ground ball rate are all similar to last year’s numbers and each one is better than average.

White will now get a chance to jump to the major leagues and join a beleaguered Detroit bullpen. The club used seven pitchers on Sunday’s game, using Will Vest as an opener in front of bulk guy Joey Wentz before five different relievers were later deployed. Yesterday, the club went with a bullpen game as each of Mason Englert, Hill, and Tyler Alexander tossed at least 2 2/3 innings before Alex Lange closed it out. With that heavy usage, they’ve decided to get a fresh arm by swapping White in for Hill.

Tigers Notes: Baddoo, Vierling, Manning

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Akil Baddoo left Friday’s game after injuring his right quad while running out a grounder.  The quad strain ended up sending Baddoo to the 10-day injured list, as the Tigers placed the outfielder on the IL Saturday, and the newly-acquired Nick Solak was called up from Triple-A.

It isn’t clear how much time Baddoo could miss, since while Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Rainer Sabin of the Detroit Free Press) that Baddoo will be “out for the foreseeable future,” the quad strain is on the “mild side.”  It’s at least good news that Baddoo has apparently avoided a higher degree of strain, even if the IL stint is a setback for the 24-year-old outfielder.

A Rule 5 pick in December 2020, Baddoo had a very impressive rookie season and seemed to be a surprise building block for a Tigers club that appeared to be turning a corner in 2021.  However, like virtually every other Detroit hitter, Baddoo took a big step backwards in 2022, hitting only .204/.289/.269 over 225 plate appearances.  The 2023 campaign has continued this inconsistency for Baddoo, but he has taken a step forward from last year, hitting .231/.341/.343 over 168 PA.

The surprising Zach McKinstry has moved into everyday duty in the Tigers’ outfield, which has been a bit of a revolving door due to injuries.  Austin Meadows has been sidelined since April because of anxiety issues, while Riley Greene is facing an extended absence due to a stress reaction in his left fibula.  On the plus side, Kerry Carpenter was activated off the IL earlier this week, and Matt Vierling may also soon be returning for Monday’s game with the Braves.

Lower-back soreness sent Vierling to the injured list on May 29, but it looks like he could miss only slightly beyond the minimum 10 days.  Vierling has already played two minor league rehab games and was in Detroit today being evaluated by team doctors.  Acquired from the Phillies as part of the Gregory Soto trade in January, Vierling has hit .241/.297/.352 over 175 PA while playing mostly in right field, but he has also gotten some work at the other two outfield slots and even at second and third base.

In other injury news, the Tigers announced that Matt Manning will start an injury rehab assignment today at Triple-A Toledo.  It was exactly two months ago today that Manning suffered a fracture in his right foot, and he has since been transferred to the 60-day IL (though that roster move doesn’t impact his potential return date).  Manning will certainly need at least a couple of rehab starts after missing so much time, but it seems plausible that he can return to Detroit’s rotation before the end of June.

Tigers Claim Nick Solak, Transfer Spencer Turnbull To 60-Day IL

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The Tigers announced that they have claimed infielder Nick Solak off waivers from Atlanta and optioned him to Triple-A Toledo. To make room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Spencer Turnbull was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Solak, 28, continues his journey around the league, as he has bounced from team to team quite a bit in the past seven months. He spent the past few years with the Rangers but was traded to the Reds for cash in November of last year. He then went to the Mariners on another cash deal before successive waiver claims took him to the White Sox, Atlanta and now the Tigers.

The fact that Solak keeps losing his roster spot and finding another is a reflection of the fact that he has continued to success in the minors while struggling in the majors. He debuted in the big leagues in 2019 with a .293/.393/.491 showing but has hit a diminished .246/.317/.354 since then. His Triple-A slash is much closer to that 2019 output, coming in at .286/.368/.493.

Several teams have grabbed him in the hopes of unlocking that kind of showing at the big league level but it hasn’t quite happened since that encouraging debut in Texas. The Tigers will now be next in line for the experiment. Defensively, he came up as a second baseman but his glovework was generally considered poor and he was moved to a corner outfield role when the Rangers signed Marcus Semien. The Tigers could theoretically move him back to the keystone, though he has played exclusively in the outfield so far this season.

The Detroit outfield has taken quite a few hits this year, as each of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Austin Meadows and Matt Vierling are currently on the injured list. That leaves them with Akil Baddoo, Jake Marisnick and Zach McKinstry as their three regulars, with Tyler Nevin also factoring into the mix. Solak figures to give them a bit of depth for the time being, though he is in his final option year and will therefore be out of options next season.

As for Turnbull, he was placed on the injured list May 13 due to neck discomfort. He received an MRI on Monday, per Chris McCosky of Detroit News, and was cleared to start some activities but doesn’t seem close to a rehab assignment. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which rules him out until early July.

Tigers Release Jermaine Palacios, Jace Fry

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The Tigers have released infielder Jermaine Palacios and reliever Jace Fry, according to an announcement from their Triple-A affiliate in Toledo. Neither player had been on the 40-man roster, so they won’t be exposed to waivers. They each hit the open market and can seek out new opportunities.

Palacios joined the Detroit organization on an offseason waiver claim from the division-rival Twins. The Tigers non-tendered him almost immediately but brought him back on a minor league contract. The righty-swinging infielder has played the year in Toledo but gotten out to a woeful start offensively. Over 152 trips to the plate, he was hitting .176/.232/.352 while striking out 31.2% of the time.

The 26-year-old had a far better showing with Minnesota’s Triple-A club last year. Palacios had hit .283/.341/.462 with 14 homers over 102 contests. That earned him his MLB debut — first as a COVID substitute, then as an official contract selection in early September. He hit .143/.184/.229 during his first 30 MLB contests. Detroit acquired minor league infielder Joe Rizzo from the Marlins this morning, ostensibly pushing Palacios out of the mix.

Fry, a left-hander, inked a minor league deal in February. He’d been trying to work back to the majors for the first time since 2021. Fry made seven appearances but landed on the minor league injured list with elbow inflammation at the end of April. He hasn’t pitched in six weeks. The 29-year-old has appeared in parts of five big league campaigns, all with the White Sox. He owns a career 5.04 ERA with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 14% walk percentage in 139 1/3 frames.

Additionally, Toledo announced that veteran reliever Trevor Rosenthal is beginning a rehab assignment at Low-A Lakeland. The right-hander signed a minor league pact on the heels of two consecutive seasons lost to injury. He pitched twice for Toledo before landing on the IL with a sprain in his throwing elbow. It now seems he’s in position to build back towards competitive game action.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #7: Tigers Land A Closer For Castellanos

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’re on to #7 in our series, looking back four years to a last-minute 2019 swap.

The Cubs entered deadline season nearing the end of their contention window. Chicago had snapped their World Series drought three years prior. While the Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez, Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks core never returned to the Fall Classic and fell short of dynastic expectations some observers had heaped on them, Chicago remained a good club. They went to the NL Championship Series in 2017 and made the playoffs again the following season, losing to the Rockies in the Wild Card game.

Nicholas Castellanos

Chicago’s then-Theo Epstein led front office set out to bolster the roster further in hopes of securing a fifth straight playoff berth. They sat at 56-50 heading into play on July 31, a game back of the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Cubs looked to inject some life into an offense that had ranked 14th in run scoring to that point. The addition: corner outfielder Nick Castellanos in a swap sending prospects Alex Lange and Paul Richan to the Tigers.

Castellanos was amidst a relative down season at the time of the trade. While he’d hit .298/.354/.500 the prior year, the right-handed hitter was carrying a .273/.328/.462 line midway through a ’19 campaign that had seen a home run explosion around the league. The Cubs looked past that comparatively slow start.

In return, they dealt a pair of fairly recent high draft choices to a Detroit club that was midway through a full-scale rebuild and en route to one of the worst seasons in history (47-114). Lange had been the 30th overall pick in 2017 after helping LSU to the College World Series finals. Richan was a second round draftee the next season out of the University of San Diego. Lange had posted middling minor league numbers up through Double-A; Richan had a solid but not overwhelming High-A performance.

It was a bit of a buy-low situation for the Detroit front office. Both pitchers had seen their prospect stock hit a down ebb. The Tigers immediately moved Lange from the rotation to the bullpen, hoping that a simplified repertoire and shorter stints would mitigate longstanding questions about his delivery and command. Detroit surely believed he’d be a viable MLB reliever but probably didn’t anticipate this level of dominance.

Lange debuted in 2021 and posted a 4.04 ERA in 35 2/3 middle relief innings. He took his game to a new level last season, significantly upping his swing-and-miss to force his way into higher-leverage spots. Lange tossed 63 1/3 frames of 3.41 ERA ball while punching out more than 30% of opposing hitters. An absurd 19% swinging strike rate — bettered only by Edwin Díaz and Andrés Muñoz among qualified relievers — suggested the potential to push the strikeouts even further. Paired with an absurd 55.6% ground-ball rate, Lange demonstrated an ultra-rare combination of whiffs and unthreatening contact. He was one of just five relievers (min. 30 innings) to record both a strikeout rate above 30% and a grounder percentage north of 55%.

In his second full MLB campaign, Lange has indeed upped the strikeouts. Entering play Thursday, he’s punched out 35% of batters faced. Lange carries a 2.55 ERA in 24 2/3 innings and been entrusted with the ninth inning by manager A.J. Hinch. The 27-year-old has saved 10 of 11 opportunities. He was blown up for four runs in a third of an inning by the White Sox in his most recent appearance, but Lange has made 17 scoreless outings and recorded multiple strikeouts on 14 occasions.

Lange’s control still comes and goes. He’s walked at least 9.9% of opponents in all three of his big league campaigns. That includes a lofty 13% walk percentage thus far in 2023. Yet he’s been so dominant at his best that he’s able to navigate the free passes. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, opponents are hitting .190/.298/.292 in 371 trips to the plate.

The Tigers didn’t get anything out of Richan. He topped out at Double-A and was released last September. Hitting to the extent they have on Lange has more than made up for Richan stalling out from Detroit’s perspective. They landed a high-leverage reliever who has shown impact talent. If Lange dials in his control, he could be one of the three to five best late-game arms in the sport. Even if he’s “only” an All-Star caliber hurler, that’s a great pull for a player who was two months from free agency. The Tigers forfeited the chance to recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer for Castellanos’ departure but Lange has been far better than the expected value of a choice landing at the end of the first round.

Lange is under club control through the 2027 campaign. He entered this season with one year and 112 days of service time, so he’ll head into next offseason at 2.112 service years. That could leave him just shy of the cutoff for early arbitration as a Super Two player, which has landed between 2.115 and 2.134 years over the past five winters. Even if Lange does get to arbitration next season, four years of arb control for a pitcher of his caliber is a massive asset.

The Tigers’ rebuild has stagnated, leading to a front office shakeup last summer. While Detroit is only 3 1/2 games out in the AL Central right now, they’re seven games under .500 and have been outscored by 70 runs. This isn’t a likely playoff contender even in the sport’s worst division. As a result, other clubs have called on Detroit’s relievers (Lange included) about a potential deadline deal.

With their extended control window, there’s no pressure on president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his staff to pull the trigger. They dealt shorter-term relievers like Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto over the winter but moving Lange would be at another level of boldness. The more probable outcome is that Lange will stick around into next season, hopefully anchoring a bullpen for the next competitive Detroit club.

From the Cubs’ perspective, the trade had mixed results. Had they anticipated Lange being this good, they wouldn’t have made him available for a rental. Castellanos validated their optimism, though, rebounding from his middle-of-the-road start with a torrid stretch. He slashed .321/.356/.646 with an absurd 16 home runs in 51 games. Castellanos earned a $64MM guarantee from the Reds the ensuing offseason. His Cincinnati deal afforded a post-2021 opt-out clause which he leveraged into a $100MM contract from Philadelphia on the heels of another excellent season.

Even with Castellanos hitting at a top 20 level down the stretch, the Cubs never kicked into another gear. They’d go 27-28 from August onward. Chicago ended third in the division and five games behind the Brewers for the last postseason spot. They returned to the playoffs during the abbreviated 2020 campaign but were swept in the first round by the Marlins. Chicago hasn’t gotten back to the postseason since and is going on six years dating back to their last playoff win.

Previous installments: honorable mentions, Drew Smith/Lucas Duda (#10), Steve Pearce/Santiago Espinal (#9), Lane Thomas/Jon Lester (#8)

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tigers Acquire Joe Rizzo From Marlins

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The Tigers have acquired minor league infielder Joe Rizzo from the Marlins in exchange for cash, per announcements from both clubs. The 25-year-old has been assigned to Triple-A Toledo.

Rizzo was a second-round pick of the Mariners back in 2016 but never advanced beyond the Double-A level in his original organization. He posted a solid .277/.343/.467 with Seattle’s Double-A affiliate last season, but the Mariners would’ve had to add him to add him to the 40-man roster in order to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency, and they opted not to do so. Rizzo signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in December.

The 2023 season hasn’t gone as well for Rizzo as the 2022 campaign. He returned to Double-A and posted  a tepid .228/.298/.362 batting line through 142 plate appearances. Despite that below-average offense, he was bumped up to Triple-A Jacksonville, where he’s struggled to a .111/200/.139 output in 40 trips to the plate. Rizzo has primarily been a third baseman in his minor league career, with more than 4000 professional innings logged at the hot corner. He’s still seen notable action at both first base (724 innings) and second base (409 innings).

Baseball America ranked Rizzo 11th, ninth and 23rd among Mariners prospects on their respective 2017-19 rankings, but he’s since fallen off the prospect radar. He’s drawn praise for his bat-to-ball skills, raw power, throwing arm and makeup in those reports, but Rizzo’s on-field results have yet to align with the above-average rating he’s received on several tools and there are questions about his long-term defensive position. For now, he’ll get another change of scenery and fresh set of input from a new coaching and player development staff in hopes of taking his game to a new level and forcing his way into the big leagues.

Tigers, Nationals Relievers Drawing Trade Interest

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Now that the calendar has flipped to June and the trade deadline is just over the horizon, teams will be starting to line up their plans for the deadline. Relief pitchers tend to always be in demand since just about every contender could squeeze another quality arm or two or three into their bullpen.

With the expanded playoffs, there are few obvious sellers at the moment, which puts a spotlight on those that do make sense to have players on the block. As such, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that clubs with bullpen needs are interested in the relievers of the Tigers and Nationals. He specifically mentions Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Carl Edwards Jr., Alex Lange, Will Vest and Jason Foley as those being targeted.

It’s not terribly surprising to see either club being eyed up by competitors. The Nats have been firmly in rebuild mode for a few years now, trading away established players like Trea Turner, Max Scherzer and Juan Soto. Their 25-35 record this season has them in the basement of the National League East. The Tigers are a bit more murky, as they tried to come out of their rebuild last year but ended up at 66-96. Their 26-33 record this year isn’t great but that leaves them only four games back in a weak American League Central. Perhaps they could hang around for the next couple of months but they recently lost both their best pitcher and position player when Riley Greene and Eduardo Rodriguez hit the injured list. That doesn’t guarantee they will slide out further back in the coming weeks but the possibility is there.

Of course, each individual player will require a different calculus based on their performance, years of control, age, etc. Let’s take a look at all six of those names that were mentioned and see what the sellers and the buyers will be looking at. Most of these guys have multiple years of control, meaning the Tigers/Nationals don’t strictly need to pull the trigger on a trade this summer. However, relievers are often volatile from year to year and there’s the ever-present injury risk, meaning there’s always a temptation to sell high when the opportunity is there.

Alex Lange, Tigers

Lange, 27, is in his third major league season and is seemingly improving every time the calendar flips over. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021, 3.41 last year and is down to 2.55 this year. His strikeout rate has also ticked up at the same time, going from 24.1% to 30.3% to 35%. However, the same is true of his walk rate, which has grown from 9.9% to 11.4% to 13%. That’s a bit concerning but his overall results are still trending in a positive direction as he’s taken on a higher-leverage role. He earned 21 holds last year and has jumped into the closer’s role this year with 10 saves already. He likely won’t even reach arbitration after this season and he’s not slated for free agency until after the 2027 campaign.

Will Vest, Tigers

Vest, 28, is similarly improving year over year like Lange. He had a 6.17 ERA with the Mariners in 2021 as a Rule 5 pick before getting sent back to the Tigers in July. They are surely glad the M’s made that decision as he then had an ERA of 4.00 last year and is down to 2.74 this year. He’s striking out 27.5% of opponents this year while walking just 8.8% and getting grounders on half of the balls in play he’s allowed. He hasn’t been in as many high-leverage spots, only notching a couple of holds on the year. Much like Lange, he’ll likely come up short of Super Two status this winter and won’t be on path for free agency until the 2027-28 offseason.

Jason Foley, Tigers

Foley, 27, made a brief debut in 2021 with a 2.61 ERA in 11 outings. He got a lengthier showing last year and his ERA jumped up but was still at a respectable 3.88. He’s cut that way down to 1.42 this year thanks to an incredible 61.4% ground ball rate. His 21.6% strikeout rate is a bit below average but his 5.2% walk rate is very good. He’s been moved into a setup role, earning 10 holds and a couple of saves on the year so far. Like his two teammates listed above, he’s yet to qualify for arbitration and isn’t scheduled for free agency until after the 2027 campaign.

Kyle Finnegan, Nationals

Finnegan, 31, moved into a high-leverage role with the Nats in recent years. He earned 22 saves and 27 holds over 2021 and 2022 with a 3.53 ERA in that time as well as a 24.6% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. His ERA has ticked up to 4.56 this year, but that’s mostly due to one really bad outing early in the season. The Rays put a five spot on him on April 4 and he has a 2.11 ERA since. Every pitcher’s stats would look better if you took out their worst game, but his peripherals are fairly close to his career norms and it’s possible that he continues to even things out over time. He drew some trade interest a year ago but ultimately stayed in Washington. He came into this season with exactly three years of service time and is making a salary of $2.3MM. He’ll be in line for raises in the next two years before qualifying for free agency after 2025.

Hunter Harvey, Nationals

Harvey, 28, got some brief time in the big leagues with the Orioles earlier in his career but was put on waivers after the 2021 season. He was claimed by the Giants and then the Nationals on a second waiver claim. Last year, he got his first extended stretch in the big leagues and responded with a 2.52 ERA in 38 outings. He struck out 28.7% of batters faced while walking 7.6%. This year, his strikeout rate is up to 31.4% but some extra home runs have pushed his ERA to 3.33. He got six holds last year but is already up to 11 this season, along with a trio of saves. He’s making $870K this year and would be able to go through arbitration two more times before reaching free agency after 2025.

Carl Edwards Jr., Nationals

Edwards, 31, had some solid seasons with the Cubs earlier in his career but he didn’t pitch much over the 2019-2021 period due to various injuries. He signed a minor league deal with the Nats prior to 2022 and has been able to bounce back. He had a 2.76 ERA in 57 appearances last year and is at 3.28 this year. He’s only striking out 18.2% of opponents this season and is walking 12.7% but he’s getting grounders at a strong 48% clip. He had 13 holds and a couple of saves last year and is at 12 holds and one save already this year. Unlike the other names on this list, he’s a pure rental, making $2.25MM and slated for free agency this winter.

Tigers’ Freddy Pacheco Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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The Tigers announced this afternoon that right-hander Freddy Pacheco had a UCL procedure yesterday. While the club didn’t provide further specifics, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press writes that he underwent Tommy John surgery.

It’s a brutal development for a pitcher trying to establish himself at the major league level. Pacheco, 25, has yet to make his MLB debut. Originally a Cardinals prospect, he was added to St. Louis’ 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason. Detroit grabbed him off waivers in Spring Training but placed him on the 60-day injured list within two weeks.

Pacheco will spend the entire 2023 campaign on the IL. The injured list disappears over the offseason, so the Tigers will either have to reinstate him onto the 40-man roster or put him on waivers in November. With the likelihood that he’ll miss the majority of the ’24 campaign as well, the latter option is possible.

Last season, Pacheco split the season between the top two minor league levels. The reliever combined for a 3.05 ERA with a huge 33.6% strikeout rate over 62 innings. Baseball America ranked him 23rd among St. Louis prospects last winter, calling him a potential middle innings arm.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL Central

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Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. Next up, the AL Central, where only three of five teams have players with contracts that contain 2024 options.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East

Chicago White Sox

Lynn signed a $38MM extension midway through the 2021 season. He was en route to a third-place Cy Young finish at the time but has seen his results go backwards over the past two years. He still managed a solid 3.99 ERA through 121 2/3 innings last season, but this year has been far tougher. The 36-year-old has been tagged for a personal-worst 6.55 ERA in his first 12 starts.

The righty is striking out a quarter of opponents against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. His results on batted balls have been disastrous, though. He’s surrendering a .335 batting average on balls in play and has already given up 15 home runs, tied for third-most in the majors. There’s probably some amount of misfortune there, but Lynn’s a fly-ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact while pitching in a homer-friendly home park. It’s been a rough couple months and nowhere near the level the Sox would need to consider an option with a net $17MM decision.

Hendriks’ free agent deal contained a unique fourth year in which the option price and the buyout were valued the same. That was mostly an accounting measure designed to front-load the Sox’s luxury tax hit to afford more CBT breathing room in 2024. The only material difference at this point is that buying Hendriks out would allow the Sox to pay him in installments over a 10-year period as opposed to a $15MM salary to be disbursed in during the ’24 season.

There’s practically no question the White Sox are going to exercise this. Hendriks came back from a non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis to return to pitching at the major league level within a matter of months. He’s one of the best relievers in the game when at his peak.

Anderson’s option call is almost as obvious as the Hendriks decision. The 29-year-old is typically one of the game’s best-hitting shortstops, an annual threat to bat over .300 with plus baserunning and typically solid defense. This hasn’t been a standard Anderson season. He’s off to a modest .273/.313/.320 start and is without a home run in 42 games. He missed a few weeks with a left knee sprain, and defensive metrics have soured on his glovework.

Rough couple months aside, a $13MM price point is still strong value for a player of Anderson’s caliber. He hit .318/.347/.473 between 2019-22 and earned a pair of All-Star nods. Next year’s free agent shortstop class is also incredibly thin, meaning there aren’t likely to be many alternatives available. Even if 2019-22 proves to be Anderson’s peak, a one-year, net $13MM decision is still an easy call for the team.

The White Sox signed Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal over the winter. They were hoping to buy low on a return to form for the righty as he further distanced himself from 2020 Tommy John surgery. It hasn’t really materialized, as Clevinger’s performance in Chicago isn’t far off last year’s work in San Diego.

Through 10 starts, the 32-year-old has a 4.13 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. He’s posted slightly below-average strikeout and grounder rates while walking 10% of opposing hitters. This year’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate is a career low. He’s posting competent fifth starter results, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely he’ll recapture the upper mid-rotation upside of his Cleveland days.

It’s an $8MM decision on the option after accounting for the buyout. That’s a reasonable price point for a back-of-the-rotation arm. The likes of Zach Davies, Johnny Cueto and Kyle Gibson all landed between $5MM and $10MM last offseason, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM pact. Clevinger looks likely to land in that area. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so odds are Clevinger is headed back to free agency. His next contract just might land around there regardless.

  • Joe Kelly: $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Kelly has had a confounding two seasons in Chicago. Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal coming out of the lockout, he’s posted rough run prevention marks despite excellent peripherals. Kelly carries a 5.43 ERA through 54 2/3 innings since the start of 2022. That’s belied by elite strikeout (32.1%) and ground-ball (62.7%) numbers. Huge walk totals at least partially explained his 2022 struggles, but Kelly has a 4.08 ERA this season despite only walking two of the 70 batters he’s faced.

The right-hander has been an enigmatic player throughout his career. Kelly has always had wipeout stuff and flashed the ability to be an impact high-leverage arm at times. Yet he’s often paired that high-octane arsenal with control that comes and goes. It’s unlikely Kelly sustains anything close to his current 2.9% walk rate over a full season. This is probably headed towards a buyout.

Detroit Tigers

This technically qualifies as an option decision on Cabrera. There’s no suspense about the result, of course. The future Hall of Famer will be bought out as the Tigers finally wrap up a $248MM extension that proved very ill-advised. Cabrera has already declared 2023 to be his likely final season. He’ll leave the sport as one of the greatest hitters ever, but it remains to be seen whether the Tigers will carry him on the roster all year. He’s hitting .202/.283/.245 in 26 games.

Minnesota Twins

Polanco would vest next year’s option with 550 plate appearances if he passed a postseason physical. He’s very unlikely to meet the playing time threshold. Polanco has only 118 trips to the dish more than a third of the way through the season. He’s had a pair of injured list stints already, missing time due both to right knee and left hamstring concerns. He’d need to average more than 4.2 plate appearances per game the rest of the way.

That’ll probably be a moot point, as the Twins seem likely to welcome him back regardless. It’s a $9.5MM decision for a middle infielder who’s one of the team’s better hitters. The switch-hitting Polanco posted a .235/.346/.405 line last season and is at a .268/.305/.482 pace in 27 games this year. Dating back to 2018, Polanco is a .272/.337/.456 hitter in nearly 2500 plate appearances. The Twins would have another club option (this time valued at $12MM) for 2025 if they keep him around, only adding to the appeal.

Kepler’s early-career extension looked like it’d be a coup when he connected on 36 home runs in 2019. The former top prospect seemed to be taking his long-awaited step forward. He hasn’t built on it, though, as he posted roughly league average numbers each season from 2020-22.

Even average production would be a welcome departure from Kepler’s showing thus far in ’23. The left-handed-hitting outfielder is off to a brutal .192/.264/.376 start in 140 plate appearances. The shift ban hasn’t resulted in any kind of improvement in his perennially low ball in play numbers. He’s sporting a career-worst .196 BABIP. His strikeouts are up to 20.7% and he’s walking at a career-worst 7.1% clip.

Kepler is an elite defensive right fielder and has shown better offensive form in prior seasons. A $9MM call isn’t out of the question, but he’ll obviously need to markedly improve upon his current pace. Minnesota has a number of controllable corner outfielders who’ve reached the MLB level (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner among them). Perhaps it’s time for a change of scenery for Kepler, who seems to have stalled out in the Twin Cities.

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