- The Royals don’t appear to be in extension talks with any of their pending free agents (Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas), Heyman reports, and with no progress, all four are expected to reach free agency after the season. K.C. hasn’t given up on the idea of re-signing “one or two” of the quartet, with Hosmer seemingly their top priority. If Hosmer can’t be re-signed, the Royals would then try to bring back “a couple of the others, at least in theory.”
- Cain reportedly asked for a six-year deal at some point in talks, though there haven’t been any recent discussions between Cain and the Royals. Cain will be the oldest of the four free agents (he turns 31 in April) and is coming off an injury-plagued season that saw him limited to 103 games due to hamstring and wrist problems.
- Despite Cain’s rough 2016 season, some sources close to the center fielder “express surprise he’s even still” with the Royals. Previous reports over the winter linked Cain to such clubs as the Rangers, Mets, Dodgers and Cardinals in trade rumors, and Heyman adds that the Rockies and Nationals also spoke to Kansas City about Cain’s services. Washington, of course, went on to acquire a younger and more controllable outfield addition in Adam Eaton at a very significant prospect cost. Colorado’s interest in Cain is rather unusual given that the Rockies were already overloaded with outfielders (Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Gerardo Parra) even before signing Ian Desmond and converting him to first base. Depending on when the talks between Colorado and K.C. took place, the Rockies could’ve considered acquiring Cain and then perhaps converting Gonzalez to first base, rather than signing Desmond. Blackmon and Gonzalez were also the subject of several trade rumors this winter, so the Rockies could’ve been looking at Cain as a replacement if they’d moved one of their internal pieces.
Royals Rumors
Lorenzo Cain Wants Long-Term Deal From Royals
Lorenzo Cain is among several key Royals who are unsigned beyond this year, but the center fielder would rather continue in Kansas City than head elsewhere in 2018, he told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.
“You can’t help but think about that,” said Cain, referring to his uncertain future. “You try not to, but it’s there. You know, if it were up to me, I’d be here long-term.”
As of late February, the Royals were focusing on extending another soon-to-be free agent, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and hadn’t engaged in contract talks with Cain, third baseman Mike Moustakas or shortstop Alcides Escobar. Unlike Hosmer, Moustakas and Escobar, all of whom have seriously underwhelmed at times, Cain has consistently turned in quality production as a Royal.
Since debuting in earnest with Kansas City during a 61-game 2012 campaign, Cain has hit .286/.336/.417 across 2,226 plate appearances. While that’s more of a respectable slash line than a star-caliber one, Cain has added further value defensively and on the base paths to establish himself as one of the majors’ most well-rounded players. Only nine of Cain’s fellow big leaguers have bettered his 61 Defensive Runs Saved and just six have outdone his 51.4 Ultimate Zone Rating over the past half-decade, while he ranks among the top 50 in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and has accumulated 94 steals during the same time frame.
Thanks to his all-around prowess, Cain has totaled 18.0 fWAR since 2012, good for 35th among position players and somewhere between Ian Desmond (18.5 in 3,168 PAs) and Dexter Fowler (13.9 in 2,768 PAs). Notably, Desmond and Fowler landed five-year deals worth between $70MM and $82.5MM as free agents during the offseason. Like those two, Cain is entering his age-31 season. So was Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner in 2014, when he inked a four-year, $52MM extension and eschewed a chance to hit the open market in 2015. That came after Gardner combined for 17.1 fWAR in 2,087 trips to the plate from 2009-13.
Of those three players, Cain’s closest comparable is Gardner, who has also mixed roughly average offense with plus defense and baserunning throughout his career. Cain could certainly have a case to exceed Gardner’s deal, though, particularly if he stays healthy in 2017. Cain only appeared in 103 games and amassed 434 PAs last year, during which he posted his worst batting line since 2013 (.287/.339/.408), as he missed all but one contest in September on account of a wrist injury. Fortunately for Cain, that won’t hamper him going forward.
“No problems with the wrist,” he informed Flanagan. “I’ve been taking some heavy cuts and I haven’t made a lot of contact yet. But the wrist is really good.”
With his wrist issue in the past, Cain figures to further make his case for a rich contract during the upcoming campaign. A bounce-back performance from Cain could help the Royals return to the form they showed in 2015, when they won their first World Series since 1985 and he was among their top contributors. But if the team endures a second straight mediocre season, an extension-less Cain might find himself in a different uniform around the summer trade deadline.
Royals Notes: Mondesi, Moss
- After struggling through a rookie season in which he hit .185/.231/.281 in 149 plate appearances, Royals middle infielder Raul Mondesi is “a different guy this spring,” manager Ned Yost told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. While the 21-year-old Mondesi has impressed thus far as one of four contenders for the Royals’ second base job, the fact that he has minor league options remaining could work against him, Flanagan notes. Of the other contenders, Cheslor Cuthbert and Christian Colon don’t have options left, so they look like shoo-ins for roster spots. Whit Merrifield, meanwhile, could be too valuable to the Royals as a utility man to demote. Nevertheless, Yost has left the door open for Mondesi to grab a spot. “The decision will come down [to] what is best for his development,” Yost said. “If he’s at a point where he can contribute … Defensively, his range is unbelievable. The coverage is unbelievable in terms of how far he can go side to side, and getting pop flies.”
- Royals DH/outfielder Brandon Moss is dealing with some lower back stiffness, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweets. He’ll sit out today’s action, though it seems there’s little reason for concern at this point. Moss is considered day to day.
Royals Notes: Jason Hammel, Jorge Soler
Righty Jason Hammel discussed his transition from the Cubs to the Royals with reporters including Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. The veteran starter says he wasn’t ready to give up starting at this stage, which may have been in the plans had he remained in Chicago. “I felt like I had proven myself over and over and over again for three years there,” he said. “It is what it is. It’s the business side of baseball. And I’m very happy that I’m over here with these guys.” Whether there’s any sense of bitterness, Hammel says he won’t “hold grudges” or “burn a bridge;” he still owns a home in the city and suggests he could even end up returning at some point later in his career.
- That’s not the only storyline connecting the 2016 champs and their predecessors; there was also a rather notable deal that sent outfielder Jorge Soler to the Royals while delivering star closer Wade Davis to the Cubs. Naturally, the man tasked with harnessing Soler’s evident talent is Dale Sveum — the hitting coach who just happened to have managed the Cubbies before landing in Kansas City. “I still think he’s developing into what he possibly could be,” Sveum said of his new protege. “He’s been very good in camp so far, trying to make adjustments in his legs and things like that, knowing the issues that come with some of the mechanics he’s been using. But like I said, it’s still a development thing. As much as we’d all like to think (otherwise), it’s not a polished product, by no means.”
Royals May Not Settle On One Regular Second Baseman
- Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes that the Royals’ competition at second base — which features Cheslor Cuthbert, Whit Merrifield, Christian Colon and Raul Mondesi — won’t necessarily produce one everyday option at the position. Manager Ned Yost acknowledged yesterday that the Opening Day second baseman “probably” would not play there on an everyday basis this coming year, unless one of the candidates outright runs away with the job this spring. Yost also noted that Cuthbert, who is out of minor league options, could be an especially important piece for Kansas City in April, as the team is planning to incorporate some extra days of rest into Mike Moustakas’ schedule following last year’s season-ending ACL tear.
Nationals Have Interest In Angel Pagan
The Nationals are among the teams with interest in free-agent outfielder Angel Pagan, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports in his latest notes column. However, the Nationals and other interested parties are hoping to land Pagan on a minor league pact, Rosenthal notes.
That Pagan would potentially have to settle for a minors deal is somewhat of a surprise. Though age isn’t on his side, as he’ll turn 36 this July, Pagan is coming off a quite-productive season at the plate and remains a very viable option in left field — if not in center. Last season, the switch-hitter batted .277/.331/.418 with a career-high 12 home runs in 543 trips to the plate. He also provided above-average value on the bases (15-for-19 in stolen bases and, per Fangraphs, +1.9 runs overall) and was one of the game’s most difficult batters to strike out. Only 16 players whiffed at a rate lower than Pagan’s 12.2 percent in 2016.
Certainly, Pagan comes with some durability concerns. He’s been on the disabled list in each of the past four seasons and missed just under a month with a hamstring injury in 2016. However, after being limited to just 167 games between the 2013-14 seasons, he’s averaged 131 games and 547 plate appearances across the past two seasons.
The Nationals have a mostly full outfield, with Jayson Werth slated to roam left field, newly acquired Adam Eaton in center field and 2015 NL MVP Bryce Harper in right field. Pagan could serve as a solid fourth outfielder that could spell Eaton from time to time and provide somewhat of a safety net for the oft-injured Jayson Werth. Chris Heisey is the team’s primary backup, and Adam Lind could see some occasional time in left field as well. Michael Taylor, too, is on hand as a potential option in the outfield, though the promise he once showed has yet to manifest in the Majors, and he’s coming off a dreadful 2016 season.
Per Rosenthal, Pagan also drew interest from the Blue Jays and the Royals earlier this winter, but those two teams have since inked Jose Bautista and Brandon Moss to respective contracts. Bautista’s deal with the Jays, though, hardly seems like it should entirely preclude Toronto from harboring continued interest in Pagan. The Blue Jays currently look poised to deploy a platoon of Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. in left field, and it’s not difficult to argue that Pagan would be an upgrade over that pairing. Speculatively speaking, the Tigers and White Sox could each offer Pagan a fairly significant role in 2017, and a number of teams could consider Pagan an improvement over their current fourth outfielder.
Royals Could Wait On Serious Extension Talks Until After Season
Despite some early talks with Eric Hosmer, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale believes the Royals could wait until the season ends before “seriously” entering negotiations with free agents Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas or Alcides Escobar. The Royals could be “curious to see what teams are willing to pay after a suppressed free-agent market last winter, as a similarly down market in the 2017-18 offseason might allow K.C. to re-evaluate their plans to bring any of these players back (though re-signing all four isn’t feasible). As Nightengale notes, the Royals let Alex Gordon test the market last winter before eventually re-signing the long-time outfielder.
Eric Hosmer: “I Never Said Anything About A 10-Year Deal”
While the Royals and first baseman Eric Hosmer will discuss a contract extension until Opening Day, there’s only a “remote” chance a deal will come together by then, per Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star.
Kansas City has “been nothing but supportive,” Hosmer said Monday, but Dodd writes that the Scott Boras client regards the idea of reaching the open market next winter as intriguing. Hosmer could end up with a $100MM-plus deal between now and the 2018 campaign, Dodd notes, though the 27-year-old indicated that rumors he’s pushing for a decadelong accord are false.
“That’s where you guys get everything mixed up,” Hosmer said. “I never said anything about that. I never said anything about a 10-year deal.”
It’s debatable whether Hosmer would be worth a major investment. After all, the former star prospect hasn’t exhibited much consistency since breaking into the league in 2011, having mixed productive offensive seasons with underwhelming ones. Hosmer was at his best in 2015, when he posted a .297/.363/.459, 3.4-fWAR season in 667 plate appearances and helped the Royals to their first World Series title since 1985. But he took sizable steps backward last year, another 667-PA campaign, as he slashed a mediocre .266/.328/.433 and logged a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) despite swatting a career-high 25 home runs.
Across 3,722 major league plate trips, Hosmer has recorded an unspectacular .277/.335/.428 line to go with just 5.6 fWAR. As FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan pointed out earlier Tuesday, Hosmer has been as valuable per 600 PAs as Mitch Moreland since 2014. Moreover, projections for 2017 place Hosmer in the same company as Mike Napoli and Chris Carter. Moreland, Napoli and Carter, all first basemen, had to settle for one-year pacts ranging from $3.5MM to $8.5MM guaranteed in free agency this winter. Those are obviously far cries from substantial paydays in today’s league.
Hosmer, in fairness, is several years younger than each of those 30-somethings, and Sullivan noted there could be reason to expect better from him going forward. Whether it will hold up is debatable, but Hosmer has performed well in clutch situations. He also could be a better defender than the metrics give him credit for, and there might be untapped potential on the offensive end, Sullivan observes. Still, as Sullivan concluded, it doesn’t seem as if Hosmer has done enough up to now to justify an enormous contract.
For the Royals, locking Hosmer up by April would likely mean awarding him a deal more valuable than the franchise record-setting, $72MM pact they gave outfielder Alex Gordon as a free agent last year. That would be difficult for a medium-payroll club that also has decisions to make on soon-to-be free agents like outfielder Lorenzo Cain and third baseman Mike Moustakas by next winter.
Camp Battles: Kansas City Royals
The Royals disappointed in 2016, and entered the winter with questions about how they’d manage payroll with several key players poised for free agency. It’s a bit of tightrope walk, but the organization continued to put resources into the MLB roster. Two positions, in particular, are ripe for competition: one which features several holdovers, and the other of which may be led by two new additions.
Here are the key camp battles for the Royals, who are the third entrant in MLBTR’s new Camp Battles series.
SECOND BASE
Whit Merrifield
Age: 28
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2
Christian Colon
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: Out of options
Cheslor Cuthbert
Age: 24
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: Out of options
Raul Mondesi
Age: 21
Bats: S
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2
This is hardly an established group, but Kansas City elected to forego bringing in veteran competition — despite a market low on demand at the position — even as the organization signed a variety of hurlers to bolster its staff. It’s certainly a calculated gamble, but evidently the Royals front office remains confident that it can achieve value with the in-house options.
Merrifield appears to have the edge entering camp. He excelled in the field and on the bases in his debut last year, while hitting just enough (.283/.323/.392) to compile 1.7 fWAR in a half-season’s worth of games. If there’s another player who can stake a claim to the bulk of the time in camp, it may be Cuthbert. Despite his lack of time at second as a professional, the club has worked with him on learning the position, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star recently wrote. Cuthbert’s chief advantage comes in the power department; while his overall productivity largely mirrored that of Merrifield, he swatted a dozen long balls in 510 MLB plate appearances last year and added seven more at Triple-A.
The two other possibilities here are both limited in their offensive outlook. Colon struggled badly at the plate last year, slashing just .231/.294/.293, and may be best suited to utility work. Mondesi, who’s still just 21, was similarly unimpressive (.185/.231/.281) in similarly limited major league action, though he was much better in the minors (.268/.322/.469) and comes with a solid prospect pedigree. He’s also the only one of these players who can hit from the left side, though it’s reasonable to think the club will prefer he get some more seasoning in the upper minors.
Players such as Ramon Torres and Corey Toups are also in camp, but don’t appear to have much of a shot. The former hasn’t displayed much bat in the minors, and while the latter hit quite well last year at Double-A, that represents his only action to date in the upper minors.
Prediction: Merrifield opens the year with the lion’s share of the time.
STARTING ROTATION (ONE SPOT)
Travis Wood
Age: 30
Throws: L
Contract Status: 2 years, $12MM (plus $8MM mutual option; $1MM buyout)
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent
Chris Young
Age: 37
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $5.75MM (plus $8MM mutual option; $1.5MM buyout)
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent
Nate Karns
Age: 29
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: 1
The Royals are fairly locked in to their first four starters, with Jason Hammel essentially taking the spot that would’ve gone to dearly departed young righty Yordano Ventura. But there’s an open competition for the fifth and final rotation slot.
Kansas City obviously saw a need to bolster the depth, as the club added Wood late in the offseason after already dealing for Karns early on. The organization also has at least two other conceivable candidates in Mike Minor and Matt Strahm, though indications are that those two lefties will compete instead for bullpen jobs.
Wood says he signed with the Royals in part because he was promised a chance to compete for a rotation job, and he’s probably the favorite after landing a $12MM deal. But if he doesn’t grab the reins in camp — and/or some of the lefty pen options falter — it’s conceivable that the club could place him back in the relief role in which he thrived over the past two seasons.
It certainly seems possible that the other two chief candidates could overtake Wood in the competition. Young, after all, was inked last winter with the premise of working as a starter, and did leap to an 11.1% swinging-strike rate last year despite his unsightly 6.19 ERA (which came due to a reversal in his batted-ball fortunes from the prior two seasons). And Karns likely comes with the most upside, though it may work against him that he’s also an intriguing relief candidate and still has an option remaining.
Prediction: Wood earns the first crack at holding down the job.
Royals Discussing Extension With Eric Hosmer; No Talks With Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas
The Royals are discussing a contract extension with first baseman Eric Hosmer’s representatives, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports. Hosmer has set Opening Day as the deadline for negotiations, as he doesn’t want ongoing talks to distract him during the season. Should the two sides not reach an agreement by the Royals’ first game, Hosmer will test free agency after the season, though he did say he wants to remain in Kansas City.
“We are talking about certain extensions, stuff like that. But the way I see it right now, I just want to make it that far [to free agency]. And if I do make it that far without signing anything, I feel like I deserve that right to see what’s out on the market,” Hosmer said. “It’s not cutting this place out completely. It’s earning the right to see what else is out there, seeing my options, seeing what would be the best possible situation for me.”
Hosmer is far from the only Royals star scheduled to hit the open market next winter, though he appears to be the only one thus far contacted by the team about an extension. Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas both tell Rosenthal that they haven’t been in talks about a new deal. (It can be inferred that Alcides Escobar, another pending free agent, also hasn’t been in negotiations with the club. Escobar was described by Rosenthal as “less of a priority” than the other three, given how Raul Mondesi Jr. could step in as Kansas City’s shortstop of the future.) Since Spring Training has just begun, of course, it stands to reason that Royals GM Dayton Moore will at least touch base with these players about potentially remaining in K.C. beyond the 2017 campaign.
It could be that Hosmer drew the early attention from the Royals because his potential extension could be the most complicated. The club expects Hosmer and agent Scott Boras to seek a ten-year deal, owing to both Hosmer’s young age (he is entering his age-27 season), the number of big-market teams that could be looking for first base help next winter.
Most players prefer to avoid having extension talks drag into the season, and in Hosmer’s case, he has some extra financial security — he has already earned $29.75MM through his four seasons of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player, including a two-year extension and a $12.25MM deal for 2017 to avoid arbitration.
It should also be noted that Hosmer could use another full year to really establish himself as a player worthy of a mega-deal, as the first baseman has been rather inconsistent over his first six seasons. Hosmer posted fWARs of 3.2 in 2013 and 3.4 in the Royals’ championship season of 2015, though he sandwiched those strong years in between three years of (according to the fWAR calculation) not even replacement-level play. Hosmer posted a -1.7 fWAR in 2012, 0.0 in 2014 and -0.2 last season, when he hit .266/.328/.433 with 25 homers over 667 plate appearances. Despite that seemingly good slash line, Hosmer was barely above average in terms of runs created (101 wRC+) and he was rated as a below-average baserunner and defender. After mostly good grades in terms of Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 in the previous three years, Hosmer’s first base work took a tumble as per those two metrics in 2016 (minus-6 DRS, -6.1 UZR/150). Hosmer’s contact rate also declined last year, while he posted a career-worst 19.8% strikeout rate.
With so many key free agents, the coming offseason has been seen as a turning point for a Royals team that is trying to remain competitive while remaining fiscally responsible. This winter, Kansas City has dealt two pending free agents in Wade Davis and Jarrod Dyson while extending another (Danny Duffy). While the odds of re-signing everyone is next to impossible, Duffy’s extension would imply that K.C. also isn’t going to let everyone walk and go into a full rebuild, though one or two of the free agents could be moved at the trade deadline if the Royals aren’t in contention for a playoff berth.
