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Latest On Royals’ Trade Candidates

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The Royals are one of the relatively few teams who look like clear-cut sellers heading into the trade deadline, and there has already been buzz about several of their veteran players.  Two new teams have joined the mix, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers have shown some interest in Whit Merrifield, while the Brewers are among the teams considering Andrew Benintendi.

Such clubs as the Padres and Mets have already been linked to Benintendi in trade rumors, though his non-vaccinated status has apparently removed such suitors as the Blue Jays and Yankees from his market — Benintendi wouldn’t be able to play in Canada altogether, while the Yankees wouldn’t want Benintendi unavailable for remaining regular-season games or potential postseason games in Toronto.

That is less of an obstacle for NL teams like the Brewers, since if Milwaukee eventually had to worry about Benintendi’s status for a potential World Series matchup against the Jays, that would count as a nice problem to have for a team battling for the NL Central lead.  The Brew Crew heads into the All-Star break with a narrow half-game lead over the Cardinals, but the Brewers are only 18-24 since the start of June.

An inconsistent offense has plagued Milwaukee, and Benintendi’s strong bat (127 wRC+) would certainly help in that regard.  A regular center fielder would probably be a better fit considering that Christian Yelich and Andrew McCutchen are already splitting left field duty, but Benintendi could get the bulk of time in left, while Yelich and McCutchen are rested, used at DH, or McCutchen could also play right field.

Merrifield has long been mentioned as a trade chip, yet while the Royals have resisted overtures in the past, they are reportedly now more open to considering a deal.  Of course, Merrfield’s trade value has also tumbled, as the 33-year-old is in the midst of the worst of his seven MLB seasons, hitting .240/.292/.343 over his first 373 plate appearances.

With Los Angeles, Merrifield likely wouldn’t be asked to adopt an everyday role, but rather be toggled around the diamond in a utility role.  Since Chris Taylor is on the injured list, Merrifield would more or less take Taylor’s role as an option at second base and all three outfield positions.  The Dodgers could also primarily use Merrifield against only left-handed pitching, though his splits against all pitchers have been underwhelming over the last two seasons.

Merrifield is also controlled through at least the 2023 season, as his contract (which was reworked back in April) calls for a $6.75MM salary next year, as he has already hit his health-based escalator clause.  He is also owed roughly $2.7MM in salary for 2022, and there is a $500K buyout of an $18MM mutual option for 2024.  Even though payroll or luxury-tax concerns aren’t a big obstacle for the Dodgers, it is possible that the Royals might be willing to kick in some money to cover Merrifield’s contract, as a reflection of his struggles this year.

IL Transactions: Matz, VerHagen, Lynch, De Jong

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The Cardinals activated left-hander Steven Matz off the 15-day injured list today, as Matz was slated to start the Cardinals’ game against the Reds before the contest was rained out.  Matz will now have to wait until after the All-Star break to make his official return to the field, as he has been sidelined since May 22 due to a shoulder impingement.  With the Cards in need of rotation help, a healthy and effective Matz would be a major boost to the team, as both sides must hope that this two-month absence can essentially be a restart on Matz’s season.  After signing a four-year, $44MM free agent deal with St. Louis in November, Matz stumbled out of the gate with a 6.03 ERA over his first 37 1/3 innings in a Cardinals uniform.

To create room on the active roster, St. Louis placed right-hander Drew VerHagen on the 15-day IL with a right hip impingement.  A similar injury sent VerHagen to the injured list for a little over three weeks earlier this season, and the righty was just activated from another IL stint (due to shoulder problems) earlier this week.  With all of these health issues, it perhaps isn’t surprising that VerHagen has only a 6.65 ERA over 21 2/3 innings, with walks and home runs being particular issues for the 31-year-old.  VerHagen is another offseason signing for the Cards, joining the team on a two-year, $5.5MM deal after spending the previous two seasons pitching in Japan.

More comings and goings off the injured list from around the league…

  • The Royals placed left-hander Daniel Lynch on the 15-day IL, as Lynch is again dealing with a blister problem.  Lynch had already been sent to the IL with that same blister issue on June 24, and he was activated earlier this week and made two abbreviated starts before returning to the sidelines.  It has been a difficult season for Lynch, who has a 5.05 ERA and a wealth of troubling Statcast metrics over 15 starts and 71 1/3 innings.  Lynch’s IL placement was part of a busy day of roster moves for the Royals, who sent 10 players (Angel Zerpa, Nick Pratto, Gabe Speier, Collin Snider, Brewer Hicklen, Michael Massey, Freddy Fermin, Nate Eaton to Triple-A; Sebastian Rivero and Maikel Garcia to Double-A) to the minors in the aftermath of their series in Toronto.  This clears the way for the return of 10 Kansas City players, who were placed on the restricted list due to their non-vaccinated status.
  • The Pirates placed righty Chase De Jong on the 15-day IL due to tendinitis in his left knee, and Bryse Wilson (today’s starting pitcher against the Rockies) was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Another knee injury is perhaps a red flag for De Jong, who underwent surgery on that same left knee last year.  The surgery cut short De Jong’s first season in Pittsburgh, but after signing another minor league deal with the Bucs this past winter, De Jong has rebounded to post a 2.06 ERA over 35 relief innings in 2022.

Blue Jays Acquire Foster Griffin From Royals For Jonatan Bernal

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The Blue Jays and Royals have agreed to a trade this morning, per Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Toronto will send right-hander Jonatan Bernal to the Royals for southpaw Foster Griffin.

The Blue Jays have sent Griffin to Triple-A. The southpaw made five appearances in the bigs with the Royals, yielding six earned runs across 4 1/3 innings. He has a 1.93 ERA across 28 innings in Triple-A, however.

The Blue Jays also recalled Jeremy Beasley from Triple-A and designated veteran Sergio Romo for assignment, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (via Twitter). The 39-year-old Romo made six appearances with the Jays after being cut loose by the Mariners. He fared better in Toronto, though the underlying metrics tell a fairly similar tale. Beasley, 26, has made six appearances for the Bue Jays totaling 10 innings of work with a 6.30 ERA.

For the Royals, this is a sort of paying-it-forward deal, where they pick up a younger arm in Bernal in exchange for a near-ML-ready arm in Griffin. Bernal, 20, has a 5.47 ERA across 52 2/3 innings in Single-A this season, where he is a couple of years younger than the average player.

Padres Targeting Outfield Help Before Deadline

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The Padres have long been expected to look for ways to bolster the offense this deadline season. The outfield looks like a particular area of concern, and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes that the club is indeed scouring the market for help on the grass.

San Diego has had a middle-of-the-pack offense overall, entering play Friday with a .241/.317/.374 team slash line. That includes a monster .307/.381/.525 showing from star third baseman Manny Machado, though, and the Friars’ production has been a bit top-heavy. Five players (Trent Grisham, Austin Nola, C.J. Abrams, José Azocar and Wil Myers) have taken 100+ plate appearances and been at least 15 percentage points worse than league average with the bat, by measure of wRC+. That leads to some areas rife for possible upgrades, particularly in an outfield that has been a bottom-ten unit with a .220/.303/.346 showing.

Few outfielders are more obvious trade candidates than Royals left fielder Andrew Benintendi. An impending free agent on a last place club, the 28-year-old looks like a virtual lock to change uniforms over the next few weeks. He’ll be a priority target for multiple outfield-needy teams, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Padres are among the clubs with interest.

Benintendi is hitting .317/.386/.401 through 363 plate appearances. He’s only connected on a trio of longballs, but he owns a strong 10.2% walk rate and has punched out in a career-low 14% of his trips. While he’s not making much impact from a power perspective, he brings a disciplined plate approach and makes plenty of contact. Benintendi has also rated well in left field in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved since landing in Kansas City, and he collected a Gold Glove and finished second in Fielding Bible Award voting at the position last season.

The Friars welcomed back left fielder Jurickson Profar from the concussion injured list this evening, just a week after he suffered the scary injury in a collision with Abrams. Profar will pair with Nomar Mazara in the corner outfield, with Grisham likely to continue as the regular center fielder. Each of Profar and Mazara is having a nice season, but they own more inconsistent career track records. Grisham has had a rough year, carrying a .192/.295/.334 line into play tonight.

Cassavell suggests a center field-capable player might be a target given Grisham’s struggles, although the market for center fielders is quite thin. Oakland’s Ramón Laureano is the top center fielder with a decent chance to be dealt, but he’d require a very strong return with three seasons of club control remaining. Benintendi’s teammate Michael A. Taylor would be a more affordable fallback, although he’s had a generally up-and-down track record at the plate for his career. Benintendi has a bit of experience in center field himself, but he hasn’t logged an inning there since 2019.

Payroll limitations loom over the Padres’ deadline outlook. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, San Diego’s luxury tax ledger is just underneath the $230MM base threshold. The organization hasn’t shown much appetite for surpassing that mark for a second consecutive season, raising questions about what kind of acquisitions president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff may be able to make. Benintendi, for instance, is playing on an $8.5MM salary. Around $3.4MM of that tab will still be owed come the August 2 trade deadline, and assuming that money would push San Diego into luxury tax territory if all else remained equal. Of course, the Padres could try to offload money of their own and/or only deal with teams willing to pay down the salary of traded players if they’re intent on avoiding the CBT.

No player the Padres add from outside the organization will be a more impactful addition than Fernando Tatís Jr. The star shortstop has yet to play this season after being diagnosed with a wrist fracture in Spring Training. He’s set for a step forward, though, as Preller told Ben & Woods on 93.7 The Fan that Tatís was set to begin his hitting progression today (Twitter link). He’ll continue to be reevaluated on a week-to-week basis, but it’s a notable development as he’d long awaited clearance to begin swinging a bat.

Tatís will certainly still need a fair bit of time to build back into game shape, and he’ll then have to embark on a minor league rehab assignment to get his timing down. In the interim, the Friars will continue to split shortstop time between Ha-Seong Kim and Abrams. The former has been the primary shortstop for most of the year. He’s played excellent defense throughout the season, and he’s caught fire of late at the dish. After hitting only .232/.327/.295 in June, Kim owns a .344/.421/.531 mark through the first couple weeks of July.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Royals Add Nick Pratto, Seven Others To Major League Roster

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The Royals announced Thursday that they’ve recalled top first base prospect Nick Pratto from Triple-A Omaha as one of eight players joining the Major League roster. Also coming to the Majors are catcher Sebastian Rivero, infielder Maikel Garcia and lefty Angel Zerpa, who’ve been recalled from Double-A Arkansas. Additionally, the Royals selected the contracts of infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton, catcher Freddy Fermin, outfielder Brewer Hicklen and infielder Michael Massey from Omaha.

The deluge of additions comes in conjunction with the previously announced slate of ten current Royals heading to the restricted list in advance of the team’s road series against the Blue Jays, where travel restrictions prevent unvaccinated athletes from entering Canada. Andrew Benintendi, Dylan Coleman, Hunter Dozier, Cam Gallagher, Kyle Isbel, Brad Keller, MJ Melendez, Whit Merrifield, Brady Singer and Michael A. Taylor are all now formally on the restricted list.

As MLB.com’s Anne Rogers tweets, the roster spots of starting pitchers placed on the restricted list (i.e. Singer, Keller) cannot be filled until four days after they last pitched, per MLB rules, which explains the discrepancy between eight players being added versus the ten who went on the restricted list.

The Royals indicated in today’s announcement that they expect to add “up to two more players” to the big league roster over the course of the series. They’ll make another addition tomorrow and another on Sunday. Any players whose contracts were selected to the 40-man roster for this series can be returned to Triple-A without first needing to clear waivers, due to their status as Covid-19-related replacements.

Pratto’s promotion is the most notable of the bunch. The 14th overall pick in the 2017 draft, the California high school product slowly progressed up the minor league ladder. He had an awful 2019 showing in High-A, and the cancelation of the following minor league season dealt his prospect stock a hit heading into 2021. The lefty hitter rebounded in a huge way last year, blasting 36 home runs in a season split between the minors top two levels. That came with some alarming strikeout numbers, but Pratto’s combination of power and huge walk totals was enough to put him firmly in top prospect consideration. He entered the season as Baseball America’s #43 overall farmhand.

Assigned to Omaha to open this year, Pratto has essentially picked up where he left off. He’s hit 17 more longballs and drawn walks at a massive 15.1% clip, but he’s fanned in over 30% of his trips to the plate. The end result — a .240/.374/.484 line through 337 plate appearances — is still excellent. The Royals nevertheless brought up fellow top prospect Vinnie Pasquantino ahead of Pratto, seemingly preferring he get a long leash to iron out the strikeout concerns in the upper minors. It’s very possible he’ll head back to Omaha after the Jays’ series, but Kansas City fans will at least get their first glimpse at a player they hope eventually develops into a middle-of-the-order bat.

It’ll almost certainly be a brief stint for the group of players temporarily added to the 40-man roster. Hicklen was called up briefly as a COVID replacement earlier in the season. Fermin, Massey and Eaton all have opportunities to make their big league debuts in the coming days. Fermin, a former international signee out of Venezuela, is hitting .242/.357/.422 with Omaha this season.

Massey, a fourth-round pick out of Illinois in 2019, was recently named the #8 prospect in the Kansas City system by Baseball America. He owns a .348/.408/.630 line with six homers in 24 games since being bumped up to Omaha last month, and he’ll almost certainly land a permanent 40-man roster spot by next offseason (when Kansas City would need to add him to keep him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft). Eaton is a former 21st-round pick out of VMI. BA recently slotted him 29th in the farm system in recognition of his .329/.388/.591 showing with the Storm Chasers.

Yankees Unlikely To Continue Pursuit Of Andrew Benintendi

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Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi has reportedly been a target of both the Blue Jays and Yankees in the early stages of the summer trade market, but yesterday’s placement on the restricted list in advance of Kansas City’s trip to Toronto, due to vaccination status, is already having impact on his market. It seemed obvious at the time of that revelation that the Jays would be out of the mix for Benintendi, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post now reports that the Yankees are also unlikely to further pursue the outfielder. Presumably, the same is true of Benintendi’s teammate Michael A. Taylor, who joined him on the restricted list and has also reportedly been considered by the Yankees.

The Yankees are one of two teams (joining the Astros) who have taken a full roster on the road to Toronto this season. They still have three games in Toronto on the schedule in late September, and Blue Jays, currently in possession of the American League’s third Wild Card spot, represent a potential postseason opponent. Certainly, not all contending clubs are going to be dissuaded from pursuing unvaccinated players, but it’s also doubtful the Yankees and Jays will be the only ones taking this stance.

Outfield help is known to be a priority for a Yankees club that watched Aaron Hicks and, to a far greater extent, Joey Gallo struggle for much of the season. Hicks has righted the ship of late, hitting at a very strong .268/.376/.449 batting line over his past 149 trips to the plate, dating back to late May. He’s also gone 4-for-5 in stolen bases during that time, swatted five homers, and added four doubles and a couple triples. (Hicks was helped off the field during last night’s game after fouling a ball into his shin, but thankfully for both him and the team, imaging did not reveal a fracture.)

It’s been another story for Gallo, whom the Yankees would surely like to move over the next 19 days between now and the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Gallo’s .166/.287/.336 batting line is miles away from the .214/.340/.507 slash he posted with the Rangers from 2017 through July 27 of last year, when he was traded to the Bronx. The Yankees surely didn’t expect Gallo to begin hitting for a high average. However, a 50-point drop in his already perennially low mark, combined with an uptick in strikeout rate and decrease in walk rate and power output, has rendered Gallo one of the least-valuable hitters in baseball at the moment. For a 28-year-old hitter still in his prime, it’s a fairly remarkable decline.

Turning the focus back to Benintendi, Heyman further tweets that the Mets, who don’t have a Toronto series on their schedule and would thus only need to worry about a potential World Series matchup there, do have some interest in Benintendi. The Mets have cast a wide net in seeking upgrades, however, and Benintendi is surely just one of many players on their radar as they seek to bolster the roster.

Interest in Benintendi, Taylor and other players who are unable to travel to Toronto will vary from team to team. For the Yankees, it seems a clear and understandable roadblock. Other clubs will feel differently. There’s no denying the adverse effect it has on the Royals, however, due both to the fact that they’ll be without nearly 40% of their big league roster this weekend and to the fact that president of baseball operations Dayton Moore will have fewer interested parties to engage on the trade market.

Royals To Place Andrew Benintendi, Nine Others On Restricted List

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The Royals are traveling to Toronto tomorrow to begin a series against the Blue Jays but will be without a significant portion of their regular roster. The team announced to reporters, including Alec Lewis of The Athletic, that ten players will be placed on the restricted list. Since unvaccinated travelers are not allowed to cross the Canada-U.S. border, it’s become common for teams to place a handful of players on the restricted list before playing in Toronto. However, the quantity and quality of the Royals players included is noteworthy. The full list of names: Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Cam Gallagher, MJ Melendez, Brady Singer, Brad Keller, Kyle Isbel, Michael A. Taylor and Dylan Coleman.

Benintendi is one of the top trade chips this year, as he’s an impending free agent having a good season for a noncompetitive team. He landed the #2 slot on MLBTR’s recent list of top trade candidates, trailing only Willson Contreras. Benintendi is walking in 10.2% of his plate appearances while striking out just 14% of the time and hitting .317/.386/.401 on the year. That amounts to a wRC+ of 127, or 27% above league average. With the Royals currently 35-53, a record worse than all American League teams except for the A’s, they stand out as obvious deadline sellers.

Two weeks ago, it was reported that the Blue Jays were among the teams interested in acquiring Benintendi, which was a fairly logical match. Benintendi bats from the left side, whereas the Blue Jays have a right-handed heavy lineup. They acquired outfielder Raimel Tapia from the Rockies in an offseason trade as a way to try to balance things out. Unfortunately, he’s hit just .263/.289/.375 for an 84 wRC+ this year. Swapping Benintendi into Tapia’s role as part of an outfield/DH mix with George Springer, Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would have been a straightforward upgrade. However, this news would seem to more or less eliminate the chances of such a deal coming together since Benintendi would only be available to the Blue Jays for road games.

In the short term, the Royals will have to find replacements for these players in order get through the upcoming four-game series against the Blue Jays, which starts tomorrow. The corresponding moves are not known at this time.

An Under-The-Radar Controllable Starting Pitcher Trade Candidate

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The old saw that states “you can never have enough pitching” gets bandied about a lot at this time of year. With the trade deadline now three weeks away, just about every contender is looking to bolster its staff by adding an arm or two. Even the Yankees, who have managed to keep their five starters healthy enough to make 15 starts each so far, are in the Luis Castillo bidding.

Naturally, there’s been much attention on Castillo, along with his teammate Tyler Mahle and Oakland’s Frankie Montas. All three of them have been in trade rumors for a long time as their respective clubs have been paring back payroll. With Mahle and Montas both dealing with minor injuries, Castillo has understandably become the primary target, with the Cardinals, Mariners, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees and Blue Jays all having been publicly connected to his market in recent days. But even if the Reds do pull the trigger on a deal, only one of these teams will get the headline-grabbing prize, leaving the rest to turn to other options.

For teams that fall short on Castillo or the other big names, they might want to consider calling Kansas City about 26-year-old Brad Keller (turning 27 in a couple of weeks). He hasn’t been the subject of any trade rumors thus far, but he came in at #43 on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates. While he won’t be able to offer the same kind of ace-like upside, what he can provide is fairly reliable outcomes.

Nabbed by the Royals from the Diamondbacks in the 2017 Rule 5 draft (actually selected by the Reds and promptly traded to KC), Keller has been a mainstay of their pitching staff over the past 4 1/2 seasons. He doesn’t have overwhelming strikeout numbers, but generally avoids barrels and gets ground balls in order to consistently put up solid numbers. He’s appeared in 121 career games, throwing 591 2/3 frames with a 4.03 ERA. His career strikeout rate of 17.4% is a few ticks below average, which is 21.4% for starting pitchers this year. His 9.2% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 7.7% rate among starters. Then his 51.1% ground ball rate is well above the customary average range, which is at 42.6% this season.

Brad KellerThose numbers for Keller have also been fairly consistent year-over-year, with his strikeout rate always falling between 16.3% and 19.6%, his walk rate between 7.8% and 10.4%, with his grounder rate between 47.8% and 54.4%. But as a ground ball pitcher, the one thing that’s not consistent is BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Strikeout pitchers naturally have more control of their outcomes as they aren’t reliant on batted balls finding gloves and being fielded cleanly. A pitcher like Keller can be helped or harmed by randomness in this regard. For instance, in 2020, Keller’s BABIP dropped to .233, about 50 points below his previous seasons. That led to a career-best 2.47 ERA that year. However, the wheel of fortune spun him round the other way in 2021, as his BABIP shot up to .347 and took his ERA to 5.39.

It doesn’t seem like the BABIP gods can fully explain Keller’s poor 2021 season, as his barrel rate also increased. After limiting barrels to rates between 3.7 and 5.9% in his first three campaigns, it jumped to 10.9% last year. Keller has evened out here in 2022, though, with a .275 BABIP, 5.5% barrel rate and 4.15 ERA, all very close to his career norms. It’s also possible that he could improve on these numbers with a change of scenery to a team with better defense, depending on which advanced metric you prefer. The Royals as a team have -19 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th in the majors, though Outs Above Average has them 13th and Ultimate Zone Rating 6th.

Guys with fairly reliable ERAs just north of 4.00 maybe aren’t as exciting as the 2.92 that Luis Castillo currently owns, but they have the potential to be important pickups nonetheless. It’s worth remembering that while Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios got the headlines last year, the Cardinals were able to pick up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ, who stabilized their rotation and helped the club surge into the postseason.

Financially speaking, Keller is making $4.825MM this year and can be controlled for one more season via arbitration. Once the deadline rolls around, there will be less than $2MM of that to be paid out, making him an easy fit on just about every team’s budget. Of course, the Royals might want to hang onto him for the same reasons, especially considering their young starters have mostly disappointed this year. Of their pitchers that have made more than one start this year, Keller’s 4.15 ERA is actually the lowest among them, followed by Brady Singer’s 4.25 and Zack Greinke’s 4.52. With Greinke a free agent at season’s end, a Keller trade would leave the club with a lot of work to do on their rotation in the offseason.

General manager J.J. Picollo spoke to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star in the wake of yesterday’s Drew Waters trade and also spoke about the upcoming deadline. “We don’t feel the extreme need that we have to move any players,” he said. “We feel like we’re in a good spot. We know where the interest lies from other teams right now. Now, it’s a matter of them assessing how willing they are.” Based on those comments, it doesn’t seem like they’re planning any kind of drastic selloff. After all, they have been trying to compete in the past couple of seasons, just without success thus far. But with a 34-52 record that has them in the AL Central basement, they could perhaps extract more value from a prospect or two that can help them further into the future than an innings eater that’s approaching the open market.

If they are willing to consider a deal, they should get plenty of interest. The aforementioned Cardinals could look to Keller, like they looked to Lester and Happ last year. Their strong defense should work well with Keller’s ground ball approach and they will be without Jack Flaherty for the next couple of months. The Yankees already have strong upside in their rotation but might want a steady arm to make spot starts, allowing them to control the workloads of their front five and keep them healthy. They’re also leading the league in Defensive Runs Saved this year, making them a solid fit for a contact pitcher. The Giants are two games out of a playoff spot and might not want to give up big prospects to chase a Wild Card, but they could grab Keller to make up for the loss of Anthony DeSclafani and hope to stay in the race. The Blue Jays have a lopsided rotation with Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah at the front, but questions at the back due to the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu and struggles of Yusei Kikuchi. The Brewers are in a similar situation, with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the front, but injuries to Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser forcing them to lean on their depth for the back end. Ditto for the Phillies who have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler at the front but have Ranger Suarez and Zach Eflin on the IL. The Twins, Red Sox and Rays have all put starters on the IL in the past week or so, and more injuries are sure to pop up around the league in the weeks to come.

As mentioned, the Cardinals patched holes with Lester and Happ last year and went 22-7 in September. The Braves added Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall when they were below .500 but ended up winning the World Series. Keller alone isn’t likely to turn a team’s entire season around, but he’s a decent puzzle piece that could fit in a number of places. Making a splash at the deadline is great fun, but it can sometimes be the little additions that make the biggest difference.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Royals’ Outfield Outlook

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Yesterday’s acquisition of Drew Waters gives the Royals a potential near-term option to evaluate in the outfield, and general manager J.J. Picollo spoke highly of Waters’ future when chatting with the Kansas City beat in the wake of the trade (link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). Picollo called Waters a “plus defender” and a “true center fielder,” praising the switch-hitter’s speed and overall upside — even with Waters “still refining some skills” at the plate.

That’s a rather favorable characterization of a player who’s whiffed in 27.1% of his plate appearances during his third season at the Triple-A level, although to Waters’ credit, that strikeout rate is down considerably from his 36.1% mark in Triple-A in 2019 and from last year’s 30.9% pace. Struggles in the upper minors notwithstanding, Waters is still just 23 years old, has long been graded as a plus runner and potential asset in the outfield grass, and isn’t too far removed from a monster 2019 showing in Double-A. There’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about Waters as a player, even if his prospect star has dimmed in recent years.

The broader-reaching question for Royals fans — and for fans of teams seeking outfield upgrades around the league — is just what this trade will mean for the Royals’ outfield moving forward. The Waters acquisition isn’t likely to have much of a bearing on Andrew Benintendi’s future; as a productive and affordable free-agent-to-be on a last-place team, Benintendi was one of the likeliest trade candidates in all of baseball with or without Waters around. (We ranked him No. 2 on last week’s Top 50 trade candidate list.)

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last month, however, Benintendi isn’t the only trade candidate in the Royals’ outfield. Center fielder Michael A. Taylor is having the finest season of his big league career, and he’s playing on an affordable two-year, $9MM contract. That makes it tempting for the Royals to keep him around into 2023, but Taylor’s greatest asset is his glove in center, and Picollo made clear the Royals view Waters as a plus option in center as well. There’s plenty of room for both Waters and Taylor to slot into the same outfield — especially assuming an eventual Benintendi deal — but it’s still of some note that the Royals would seemingly feel confident that Waters could step into Taylor’s shoes in the event of a trade, at least from a defensive standpoint.

Taylor has indeed drawn interest from other clubs, with MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeting last night that the Yankees are among those who’ve considered him in their search for outfield upgrades. Taylor, hitting .264/.340/.385 and once again playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center, would immediately become the best defensive outfielder on the Yankees’ roster (or on the roster of the majority of MLB teams). New York has been playing Aaron Judge in center field more than ever before, but Taylor could conceivably push Judge back to right field if and when the Yankees inevitably move on from Joey Gallo.

The Yankees are also known to be interested in Benintendi, and Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reported Sunday evening that the two sides have had “ongoing” talks regarding Benintendi for the past couple weeks. The asking price is believed to be high at present, Ackert adds. While the Yankees have now been linked to a pair of Kansas City outfielders, the Royals will surely receive interest in both Benintendi and Taylor from other clubs, just as New York will explore outfield options with other teams.

Further trades from the Royals aren’t necessarily a given. Picollo suggested that the team does not “feel the extreme need that we have to move any players,” though it’d be surprising if Benintendi, at the very least, didn’t change hands over the next three weeks. However, even if the Royals stand completely pat the rest of the way, Waters should get an earnest look in the big leagues before long, particularly with Kyle Isbel struggling and Edward Olivares only playing a limited role this year.

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