Latest On Spencer Howard's 2021 Role
- The Phillies also face a question about how to deploy a top prospect, as Spencer Howard has never thrown more than 112 innings in any of his four pro seasons. As Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes, the Phils could start Howard in the minors since rotation space could be hard to find, or they could manage his innings throughout the season in a relief role on the MLB roster. The latter option would leave the door open to Howard eventually making some starts in 2021, though it would require the Phillies to also keep Howard stretched out in something of a swingman role so he could more easily shift into working as a starting pitcher. A second-round pick for the Phillies in the 2017 draft, Howard’s minor league climb was slowed by some shoulder problems in 2019, and he has yet to pitch at Triple-A ball. Philadelphia promoted Howard to the majors last summer after watching him at the alternate training site, and Howard posted a 5.92 ERA over 24 1/3 innings and six starts.
Herrera In The Running To Make Roster
As spring training games continue and we inch closer to the 2021 season, let’s check in on a couple of notes from around the game…
- Veterans Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. are working to make the Astros’ roster out of camp, but their chances took a hit yesterday with the signing of Jake Odorizzi, writes the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Cishek would make a $2.25MM salary were he to make the team, while Souza would earn $1.15MM. The Astros very much prefer to stay under the luxury tax to avoid the worsening of the draft pick compensation they might receive if Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, or Lance McCullers Jr. are offered (and decline) a qualifying offer at year’s end. While the terms of Odorizzi’s deal are not yet known, it’s likely to take them close to the $210 luxury tax threshold.
- With Adam Haseley on the injured list and likely to miss opening day, Odubel Herrera has jumped into pole position to be the guy in center when the season starts, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He was an All-Star in the grass in 2017, but an 85-game suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy in 2019 derailed his once-promising career. Said manager Joe Girardi on Herrera’s chances to make the team, “We’re not allowed to punish anyone more than what MLB did. If Odubel doesn’t make the team, it would be what we would consider probably a lack of performance or we’d be more comfortable with getting a few more at-bats. That sort of thing. He’s in the running just like a lot of other guys.” The 29-year-old fell off dramatically after posting a 107 wRC+ from 2015 to 2017. He has not appeared in a big-league game since May 2019.
Adam Haseley Out Four Weeks Due To Groin Strain
Phillies outfielder Adam Haseley suffered a moderate groin strain and will miss the next four weeks, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Matt Gelb of the Athletic). Haseley had been in competition for the season-opening center field job.
With Haseley now likely to open the season on the injured list, it seems Philadelphia will pick from a group of Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak and non-roster invitee Odúbel Herrera in center. Kingery has shown flashes as a super-utility type over the past three seasons but is coming off a .159/.228/.283 line in 2020. Even if he gets the majority of starts in center, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to get reps on the infield, where he’s played each of second, third and short rather extensively (although he played almost no shortstop in 2020). Quinn hasn’t hit much at the big league level, often missing time due to injury, but he’s a generally well-regarded defender. He’s also out of minor-league options, meaning he needs to break camp with the team or be exposed to other clubs.
Turning to either Moniak or Herrera would be more surprising. Moniak, the first overall pick in the 2016 draft, has been a decent but unspectacular minor-league performer. In his most recent action on the farm, he slashed .252/.303/.439 at Double-A in 2019. Herrera, meanwhile, once looked like a potential building block for the organization, signing a $30.5MM extension after a 2016 All-Star season. His production dipped in 2018 and he was terrible early in the 2019 season before being suspended as part of the league’s domestic violence policy. Herrera was removed from the 40-man after that year and hasn’t played in MLB since then. Nevertheless, he’s in spring training and has seemingly put himself back in the mix with a promising start there.
Latest On J.T. Realmuto
- Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto had his hard cast removed and replaced with a splint as he works his way back from a fractured right thumb, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com was among those to report. That’s a generally encouraging sign, as Zolecki notes that this had been the anticipated next step in his recovery. However, Realmuto still has not progressed to a point where he can hit or throw. It remains unclear if he’ll be ready in time for Opening Day. Something resembling a typical season from Realmuto, arguably the game’s top catcher, is no doubt a key piece of Philadelphia’s hopes of snapping a nine-year playoff drought.
Latest On Phillies' Center Field Situation
- There are five legitimate in-house candidates to serve as the Phillies’ starting center fielder, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. Along with Scott Kingery, Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn, both Odubel Herrera and Mickey Moniak have thrown their hats in the ring. Herrera was a productive starter at the position for the Phillies from 2015-17, even earning a five-year, $30.5MM extension in the last of those seasons, but his numbers tanked from 2018-19 and he sat for most of the latter campaign because of a domestic violence suspension. The Phillies outrighted him before last season, meaning he’s not on their 40-man roster. Moniak, who made a brief major league debut in 2020, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft, but he hasn’t matched the hype since then. He owns a .692 OPS across 1,671 plate appearances in the minors, though the 22-year-old has put himself on the radar early in spring training. Moniak went yard twice against the Yankees on Thursday.
Phillies Likely Done Spending For Now
The Phillies payroll is roughly where it was last year – at least as long as they entertain rostering Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson on opening day. A lot remains to be seen, but it’s certainly a possibility that the pair of veteran relievers makes the team. In that case, they would both make $3MM, pushing their luxury tax payroll close to $208MM, writes the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Wanting to leave a touch of breathing room under the tax for an in-season acquisition, the Phillies are likely done adding Major League players. Whether the Phillies should trifle over surpassing the luxury tax by a million or two is certainly worth the question, but it’s not a level of spending they’ve breached in the past.
If they are using that line as a soft cap, there won’t be much flexibility even for a mid-season acquisition. Clearing close to $6MM by not putting Kintzler and Watson on the roster might be appealing for that cause, but considering the disaster that was their 2020 bullpen, they may prefer having those veteran hands at the ready. Kintzler was the Marlins closer last year with a 2.24 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. Watson logged a 2.50 ERA across 18 innings for the Giants. Both have been steady Eddies for the past decade out of the bullpen.
Watson, for his part, fits a particular need for the Phillies. Southpaw Ranger Suárez is behind in his preparation by a couple of weeks because of visa issues, notes Gelb. Suárez would be one of the lefties competing for a spot in the bullpen. If Suárez isn’t ready for opening day, Watson would be in competition with JoJo Romero for deputy southpaw behind nominal sheriff José Alvarado. The 24-year-old Romero had a 7.59 ERA in 12 appearances last year. There are plenty of reason to be bullish on Romero, however. He had a 3.66 FIP and minuscule 4.3 percent walk rate, suggesting better times may be ahead for the crowd-pleasing southpaw. Still, Watson is by far the most experienced arm with a 2.80 ERA/3.61 FIP in 591 career innings.
Damon Jones, Kyle Dohy, Cristopher Sánchez, and Bailey Falter are the other left-handers on the Phillies 40-man. None of the four have experience at the Major League level, however.
Phillies Have “Checked In” On Jake Odorizzi
The Phillies are among the clubs to have checked in recently on free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi‘s asking price, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. He adds that the Angels have maintained some level of interest in the right-hander throughout free agency as well. There’s still no indication that Odorizzi is in serious talks with any individual team at this point.
It’s been a slow winter for Odorizzi, who was reported several weeks ago to be seeking a three-year pact worth around $15MM per year. A contract in that range would put the Phillies well north of the $210MM luxury tax threshold, as they’re currently about $8.5MM shy of that mark.
Given that proximity, it’s tough to see any match between the two sides without the Phillies exceeding the tax. That said, the penalty for surpassing the tax in 2021 wouldn’t be all that substantial for the Phillies — a 20 percent tax on their first $20MM worth of overages — and they’d quite likely dip back below the tax line in 2022 (assuming the system remains in place after another wave of collective bargaining talks). The Phillies will see Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera and several others come off the books next year; their 2022 tax obligations are currently in the $133MM range.
As for the fit with Odorizzi specifically, there’s little denying that he’d be an upgrade in the middle of the Philadelphia staff. Odorizzi’s 2020 season was more or less wiped out by a series of non-arm injuries — an intercostal strain, a line-drive to the chest and a blister on his pitching hand — but his 2019 season was quite strong. He started 30 games and tallied 159 innings with the Twins, pitching to a 3.51 ERA with a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate against a strong 8.1 percent walk rate. That showing prompted the Twins to make a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which Odorizzi accepted over some multi-year interest at lower annual rates.
Aside from last year’s series of injuries, Odorizzi has been among the game’s most durable starters. From 2014-19, he averaged better than 30 starts and 165 innings per season, logging a combined 3.88 ERA and 4.20 SIERA with strikeout and walk rates that were a bit better than league average.
The Phillies, meanwhile, will open the year relying on a strong one-two punch of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, with a solid Zach Eflin holding down the third spot on the staff. After that, top prospect Spencer Howard, the talented-but-inconsistent Vince Velasquez, and offseason signees Chase Anderson and Matt Moore will be the leading candidates to round things out. Howard struggled in his MLB debut last year but is still highly regarded. However, he also skipped Triple-A entirely and still has only six Double-A starts to his name, so the organization may feel he needs some more development time.
As for the Halos, they’re about $17MM shy of the luxury threshold, so there’s certainly room to add Odorizzi without crossing that threshold if that’s ownership’s goal. The Angels actually have a fairly deep mix of rotation options at this point, with Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Griffin Canning, Alex Cobb and Shohei Ohtani all likely to factor in early.
The Angels have been decimated by injuries in recent years, however, and that group of rotation options has some question marks within its ranks. Odorizzi certainly isn’t the ace for which Angels fans have clamored for the past few seasons, but he’d quickly become one of their top starting options were the two sides to strike a pact.
At this point, there’s no clear favorite for where Odorizzi will land. He has, at times, been connected to the Twins, Blue Jays, Giants and Red Sox (in addition to the two clubs listed here), but it’s a tough winter to be a mid-rotation starter on the market. Only four starting pitchers have agreed to multi-year deals: Trevor Bauer (Dodgers), Taijuan Walker (Mets), Mike Minor (Royals) and Chris Flexen (Mariners). Bauer was in his own class, of course, while Flexen is something of a unique case himself after a breakout showing in the KBO.
Rhys Hoskins "Medically Cleared" For Spring Training
- Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who underwent Tommy John surgery last October, said that he has been “medically cleared” for all spring training activities, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer relays. It’s not certain whether Hoskins will be in the Phillies’ lineup on Opening Day – that will depend on how many reps he gets this spring – but it’s not “out of the picture,” he stated. After a somewhat disappointing 2019, the 27-year-old slugger enjoyed a major rebound last season, when he slashed .245/.384/.503 (140 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 185 plate appearances.
J.T. Realmuto Suffers Fractured Thumb
The Phillies kicked off Spring Training with some brutal news for fans. Star catcher J.T. Realmuto recently sustained a small fracture in his right thumb, manager Joe Girardi announced to reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki). The injury occurred six days ago when catching a bullpen session, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Realmuto’s thumb will be immobilized for the next two weeks, and while the Phils are hopeful he’ll be ready for Opening Day, there’s no guarantee that’ll be the case. It’s certainly not the way the team or Realmuto hoped to kick off his newly inked five-year, $115.5MM contract.
Realmuto will be reevaluated after that immobilization period, at which point the club will have a better timeline for his return to games. If Realmuto is forced onto the injured list to begin the season, the Phillies would likely turn to Andrew Knapp as the primary catcher in his absence. Rafael Marchan could get a look as the backup role in that scenario, given that he’s already on the 40-man roster. If not Marchan, one of Jeff Mathis or Christian Bethancourt could get the nod. Both would need to be added to the 40-man roster, however, as they’re in Spring Training as non-roster invitees at the moment.
Phillies Sign Brad Miller
12:22pm: Miller is guaranteed $3.5MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
11:45am: The Phillies announced Wednesday that they’ve signed utilityman Brad Miller to a one-year, Major League contract. Right-hander Seranthony Dominguez, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, has been transferred to the 60-day injured list to create space on the 40-man roster. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported last week that the Phillies and Miller, an ISE Baseball client, were in talks on a one-year deal in the $3MM range.
Miller, who is returning to the Phils after a year with the Cardinals, makes for a sensible upgrade for a thin bench. With Didi Gregorius back in the fold and Jean Segura expected to serve as the everyday option at second base, the 31-year-old Miller will join versatile Scott Kingery in backing up at a number of positions around the diamond. He probably won’t get much reserve time at shortstop and won’t see action in center — both spots Kingery can handle — but Miller could see time at second base, first base, third base and in the outfield corners.
Prior to re-signing Miller, the Phillies would’ve lacked infield depth on days that Kingery was roaming the outfield. Philadelphia acquired infield prospect C.J. Chatham — a former Dave Dombrowski draftee — from the Red Sox earlier this winter but have little on the 40-man roster behind him. Ronald Torreyes is in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, but a couple of injuries could have left the Phillies reliant on a thin farm system that lacks MLB-ready infield talent.
Miller isn’t the plus defender that Kingery is, but he’s been a much better hitter of late and has a longer track record at the MLB level. In 171 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2020, Miller slashed .232/.357/.451, and over the past three years combined he’s a .247/.329/.468 batter with 27 homers, 27 doubles and four triples. He’s strikeout-prone (29.1 percent in that time), which limits his batting average, but Miller draws plenty of walks (10.4 percent) and makes frequent hard contact.
The Cardinals used Miller as a designated hitter more often than anything else in 2020, although he played 15 games at third base and also appeared at shortstop and second base. He lined up most frequently in left field and at third base with the Phillies in 2019, but Miller has more than 1200 at second base and more than 600 at first base as well. He’s also logged 3000-plus innings at shortstop, so while he’s only their third- or fourth-best defensive option there, he can certainly handle the position in a pinch.
The Phillies, by all indications, are angling to stay beneath the $210MM luxury tax threshold, though adding Miller on a reasonable deal doesn’t really jeopardize that goal. Assuming that roughly $3MM price point proves correct, the Miller signing will push them to just under $202MM in luxury obligations, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.
That leaves the club with a bit of room for some in-season maneuvering, although if either of Brandon Kintzler or Tony Watson makes the club’s roster, that figure will climb further north. Both veteran relievers agreed to minor league deals that contain $3MM base salaries upon making the MLB roster. The Phillies formally announced Watson’s deal, which was reported earlier this morning, alongside their announcement of the Miller deal.