No Extension Talks Between Phillies, Nola
The Phillies and Aaron Nola have not had any “substantive” discussions regarding a long-term contract extension, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic in a much broader exploration of Nola’s contractual status and pending arbitration case (subscription required). The two sides are facing a $2.25MM gap between the $4.5MM at which the Phillies filed and the $6.75MM at which Nola and Paragon Sports filed.
A hearing is set for Feb. 14, and with no real talks on a multi-year deal taking place to this point, it seems all the likelier that Nola’s case will be resolved in front of an arbitration panel. There’s no immediate urgency for the Phillies to lock Nola up to a long-term contract, and it’s certainly possible that the right-hander’s preference is simply to go year-to-year through arbitration until reaching free agency upon completion of the 2021 season. Both Nola and Yankees right-hander Luis Severino are important cases for future first-time-eligible starters in arbitration; with the exception of Dallas Keuchel (who is anomalous, having entered arbitration fresh off a Cy Young win), no first-time starter has topped the $4.35MM that Dontrelle Willis received way back in 2006. It’s a stunningly outdated number, and arb victories for Nola and/or Severino would help move the needle forward for future starting pitchers.
Cuban Shortstop Yolbert Sanchez Cleared To Sign With MLB Teams
Shortstop Yolbert Sanchez has left Cuba and has been cleared by Major League Baseball to sign with teams beginning on Feb. 5, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs report. The 21-year-old (22 in March) will be subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system.
Sanchez’s stats in his limited professional experience won’t wow anyone — he’s a .297/.338/.345 hitter in 435 plate appearances — but McDaniel and Longenhagen nonetheless paint him as a likely seven-figure bonus recipient due to his raw speed, glovework at shortstop and arm strength — each of which are considered by scouts to be anywhere from above average to plus. Their report notes that scouts view him as the type of prospect who’ll typically command a bonus between $2-4MM.
Certainly, that bodes well for the Orioles, who still have upwards of $6MM in their international bonus pool after whiffing on prospects Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr. and Sandy Gaston when the trio signed early in the 2018-19 offseason (the Mesa brothers with the Marlins; Gaston with the Rays).
Of course, the mere fact that the Orioles presently have the most money at their disposal doesn’t by any means make Baltimore a lock to sign Sanchez. The O’s, after all, had the ability to make larger offers to the Mesa brothers and Gaston but did not ultimately ink any of the trio. It’s also possible that they don’t view Sanchez as a prospect who should command such an investment — or at least that they don’t like him to the same extent as another organization with millions remaining in its bonus pool. Beyond that, Sanchez could technically opt to wait until July 2 to sign, at which point bonus pools would reset and present him with a vastly larger list of suitors.
While Baltimore is the runaway leader in remaining pool space, McDaniel and Longenhagen write that the Dodgers, Cubs and Phillies are among the teams with the most resources remaining. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez adds the Cardinals to the mix, noting that St. Louis has an estimated $1.85MM remaining in its pool. Sanchez pegs the Dodgers at about $1.4MM, the Phillies at roughly $1MM and the Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox in the $750-800K range. Sanchez will hold workouts for teams later this week in the Dominican Republic, per Fangraphs’ report.
Latest On Josh Harrison’s Market
The Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Phillies and Rays are all in on free agent Josh Harrison at the moment, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred.
Reported interest from the Giants and Angels isn’t anything new for Harrison, but this is the first time the Dodgers, Phillies and Rays have been connected to him in any major way this offseason. The 31-year-old Harrison is available on the heels of a below-average season with the Pirates, who declined his $10.5MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout afterward, but has typically been a decent offensive player and a solid, versatile defender during his career. Consequently, Harrison has drawn widespread interest on the open market.
A .277/.317/.408 hitter in 3,012 plate appearances, Harrison has posted a 98 wRC+ and a 97 OPS+, falling just shy of the league-average mark of 100. He has also accrued significant reps at second, third and in the corner outfield, though the vast majority of his 2018 playing time came at the keystone.
Harrison would provide the Dodgers yet another multi-position defender, and as a right-handed hitter, he’d give the lefty-heavy team some variety in its lineup. For Philly, Harrison may be a fallback option at third base in the event the club doesn’t sign free agent Manny Machado, though it’s debatable at best whether the former is superior to current starter Maikel Franco. The Phillies already have a quality starter at second in Cesar Hernandez, so it’s doubtful Harrison would see much action there. Unlike both the big-spending Dodgers and Phillies, the Rays operate with a bottom-of-the-barrel payroll. Still, they should be able to afford Harrison, who’d offer them further protection behind second baseman Joey Wendle, third baseman Matt Duffy and corner outfielders Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows.
Latest On Phillies, Bryce Harper
- The most recent chatter on Bryce Harper has focused on his ongoing dalliance with the Phillies, due in no small part to a recent, in-person meeting. Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that Harper “hit it off” with Phils skipper Gabe Kapler, which perhaps represents a notable, though unquestionably secondary, factor in the still-developing situation. Though the word long has been that the Philadelphia organization has at least a slight preference for Manny Machado over Harper, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that the latter may actually be a better match. Lauber ticks through a variety of ways in which that’s arguably the case, ranging from Harper’s fit in the lineup and on the roster to broader considerations such as marketing.
Phillies “Expected” To Make Offer To Bryce Harper Soon
4:45pm: Machado was the Phils’ primary target at one point, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), but it’s now much more even between him and Harper — if not slightly tilted in Harper’s favor. The Phillies, according to Heyman, are expected to make a formal offer to Harper in the near future.
Even if the Phillies won’t sign both Machado and Harper, Heyman notes that the goal is to sign one and then explore the market for other top free agents like Pollock, Keuchel and Kimbrel. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites team executives with the Phils in tweeting that organization has “visions” of signing the trio of Harper, Keuchel and Kimbrel. Paired with the prior acquisitions of Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, among others, that’d obviously be a seismic roster overhaul — the magnitude of which has been virtually unparalleled by any team in recent memory.
Of course, striving to add that trio and actually signing all three are two entirely separate animals, and it remains to be seen how feasible it is that the Phillies could win the bidding on three of the market’s top remaining free agents.
1:00pm: With a surprisingly small number of teams engaged on superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, it has at times seemed as if the big-budget Phillies are the favorites to land both players. Of course, even if the Philadelphia org is the likeliest single team to secure the services of each, that does not mean that it should be expected to come away with a pair of monster deals. Still, the possibility of hooking two free agent trophies has remained tantalizing to consider.
In the course of an interesting breakdown of the current situation, though, Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link) strikes a blow to the idea of the Phillies making successive strikes for both Harper and Machado. The Phils, he reports, have “made this much clear during negotiations: They will not sign both players.”
Certainly, there was never anything approaching an expectation that the Phillies would land both, or even that they’d seriously consider taking on two huge salaries. But it’s still a notable bit of seemingly hard information in a market situation that has remained exceedingly fluid, so far as is known publicly.
As Gelb explains, moreover, that stance is perhaps a notable aspect of the Phillies’ strategy in approaching both Harper and Machado. If the club’s money is only there for one of the two players, that conveys no small amount of leverage. Even if both players would rather end up elsewhere, they surely can’t ignore the presence of the Phils’ ample pocketbooks in navigating a surprisingly barren field of pursuers.
Perhaps the best case scenario for the Philadelphia club would be for one of these two players to jump on a big but palatable offer to join on. Of course, their respective representatives — Scott Boras, for Harper, and Dan Lozano, for Machado — have played this game before. We’ve seen teams emerge from the woodwork in the past to land players of this quality with surprisingly massive contracts. As Gelb rightly suggests, the presence (or absence) of “mystery teams” — whether as active bidders or as conjured by the agents — may go a long way toward influencing the course of negotiations.
Gelb says the Philly club intends to continue exercising confident patience in talks. The situation seems ripe for that approach, though surely the team would be better-situated if Harper or Machado had a stronger personal desire to end up in Philly. Really, there seem only to be a few risks here (beyond those that are inherent to such a major investment, which the team has already largely resolved in favor of action).
Those risks seem manageable. One is simply that the team loses out on the player it prefers to land, which would appear to be Machado. Given that the roster is susceptible of upgrades at both the corner outfield and third base, that’s not a major worry. Another is that it ends up having to pay a bit more by allowing the bidding to get going in earnest. Paying a premium now to forestall that possibility seems unwise, when the Phillies can surely afford to cover a higher price if that ends up being required. (This is the point of the post where I quote owner John Middleton on his willingness to spend “stupid money” this winter.)
Finally, the Phils could end up missing on both players. Gelb says the team is confident it will land one of the two, though surely there’s some possibility that they’ll both head elsewhere. That is perhaps the most concerning outcome, though even then there are alternatives. A.J. Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel are the leading three alternative remaining free agents; all would be hypothetical fits. And the trade market is all but sure to have some intriguing targets still available, even if it means coughing up more prospect capital than the team might wish. Losing the star power would hurt, but it seems reasonable to think the Phillies could still back-fill the missing talent.
All things considered, there are still many ways in which things could shake out — with both Harper and Machado landing in Philadelphia evidently not among them. Today’s news may not be earth-shattering, but it does cabin the universe of foreseeable outcomes. With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, in a slow-moving and increasingly tense market setting, it’s a signpost that’s at least worthy of keeping in mind.
Phillies Sign Lane Adams To Minor League Deal
The Phillies announced Monday that they’ve signed outfielder Lane Adams to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.
Obviously, it’s not the free-agent outfield addition that Phils fans were hoping they’d hear about today, but Adams will give the club a useful depth piece and a potential bench option for the 2019 campaign. The 29-year-old is a career .263/.333/.467 hitter with seven homers and 11 steals in 154 Major League plate appearances — most of which have come with the division-rival Braves across the past two seasons.
Adams struggled through an ugly season in Triple-A last year but, as noted above, have been fairly productive in the big leagues and did notch a quality .264/.320/.461 slash in 199 Triple-A plate appearances with the Braves in ’17. Adams is 11-for-11 in MLB stolen-base attempts and has four seasons with 30 or more steals in the minors under his belt — highlighted by a 44-steal campaign in 2016. He’s capable of playing all three outfield slots and has spent the bulk of his Triple-A time in center field in recent seasons.
White Sox Have Made Eight-Year Offer To Manny Machado?
11:53pm: In a contrasting report, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link) that the White Sox haven’t increased their original seven-year offer to Machado.
11:25pm: The eight-year offer is worth $250MM, as per Z101Digital’s Hector Gomez (hat tip to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin).
9:58pm: The White Sox have offered an eight-year contract to free agent infielder Manny Machado, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports. We heard last week that Chicago had formally put an offer on the table for Machado, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, though it isn’t known if this eight-year pact is that same deal, or if the Sox have upped their offer. That previous deal was “likely closer to $200 million than $300 million” in Nightengale’s words.
The eight-year threshold seemingly represents a new step in the ongoing talks between Machado and the White Sox, as 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine had previously reported that the Sox were only willing to hand out seven-year deals to either Machado or Bryce Harper. The White Sox now seem to be a bit closer to Machado’s desire for at least a decade-long contract, though if he is “sitting on” Chicago’s offer, as Passan writes, it indicates that Machado is still holding out to see if another team can top the White Sox with a longer and more expensive offer.
There seem to be at least three suitors in play for Machado at this time, as Passan notes that the White Sox and Phillies (who are “still engaged” with Machado) have been told that a mystery team is also interested. The Yankees have been linked to Machado this winter, though they might not be the third suitor, as recent reports seem to indicate a waning interest in Machado’s services.
If the Yankees are indeed out, and the Phillies have now become the favorites to land Bryce Harper, Machado could find himself down to just two suitors. It’s anyone’s guess, of course, about who the mystery team could be or what they might be willing to offer (or if the team exists at all, and isn’t just a negotiating tactic by Machado’s camp). While Passan suggests that Chicago’s willingness to go to eight years could indicate some flexibility to add a ninth or even a tenth year to an offer, the White Sox might not feel such pressure if they perceive that they already have the highest bid. The White Sox have already sailed well above their financial comfort zone in bidding on Machado — an eight-year deal in the $200MM+ range dwarfs the previous largest deal in franchise history, Jose Abreu‘s six-year/$68MM pact.
John Middleton, Matt Klentak Discuss Bryce Harper Meeting
After meeting with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper on Saturday, the Phillies are reportedly the No. 1 contenders to sign the six-time All-Star. On the heels of the Phillies’ summit with Harper, owner John Middleton and general manager Matt Klentak shed some light on what the team accomplished by meeting with him and Scott Boras. “I think it was really positive,” Middleton told 6ABC (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com), and Klentak agreed. “We got to understand the man,” Middleton continued. “We got to understand what he’d be like in the dugout, the clubhouse and the community. He and his wife are really an impressive young couple.” The Phillies’ contingent made a long presentation to Harper’s camp, though they reportedly haven’t issued him an offer yet.
Phillies Reportedly Favorites To Sign Bryce Harper
SUNDAY: The Phillies are “clear-cut” favorites to sign Harper, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale hears from multiple sources. The Nationals, on the other hand, are fading in the sweepstakes, and team executives are calling it a “long shot” that he’ll re-sign with them. Nightengale reports. Washington isn’t prepared to pay Harper more than $25MM per year, Nightengale suggests. The Phillies, meanwhile, haven’t submitted a formal offer to Harper yet, but that should change during the upcoming week, according to Nightengale.
SATURDAY: After conducting a face-to-face meeting in Las Vegas with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper on Saturday, the Phillies “remain optimistic” they’ll emerge from the offseason having signed him or free-agent infielder Manny Machado, Matt Breen of Philly.com reports. At the very least, the Phillies will be finalists for both Harper and Machado, Breen adds.
The Phillies entered the winter with owner John Middleton declaring that money wouldn’t stand in the way of upgrading a team which has missed the playoffs seven years in a row. And signing either Harper or Machado has always stood out as the clearest path to improving the Phillies’ roster, as the two 26-year-old superstars are easily the premier players on the open market. Given both the Phillies’ financial might and their need for at least one of those players, it’s “likely” they’ll put forth the richest offers for both Harper and Machado, according to Breen.
If the Phillies are only able to pick one, it’d be Machado, whom they “seem to prefer,” Breen writes. However, the Phillies have “signaled” to him that they are also interested in Harper – a move that Breen posits could pressure Machado to accept an offer from them. Notably, since the Phillies met with Machado in December, they’ve added one of his confidants to their staff, having hired former Orioles infield coach Bobby Dickerson in the same role. Dickerson was with the Orioles during Machado’s entire run with the team from 2012-18. Meanwhile, the White Sox – who look like the only other team seriously pursuing Machado – may have helped their chances this winter by acquiring the shortstop/third baseman’s brother-in-law, Yonder Alonso, and his friend Jon Jay. But if money, not personal ties, ends up being the deciding factor in where Machado goes, signs are pointing to Philadelphia. After all, the White Sox’s only known offer to date was reportedly worth closer to $200MM than $300MM, and it may take a proposal nearer to the latter amount to lure Machado.
As with Machado, Harper has fewer franchises going after him than expected this offseason. Still, at least four teams – the Phillies, White Sox, Nationals and Dodgers – look to be in the running. It seems the Nationals, with whom Harper has spent his whole career since going first overall in the 2010 draft, are particularly strong in the derby. As of earlier this week, the Nats were reportedly upping their efforts to re-sign Harper, to whom they’ve already extended at least one offer worth well north of $300MM. Reports have indicated the Dodgers aren’t keen on making a long-term commitment, on the other hand, meaning Harper may have to choose among the Phillies, White Sox and Nationals if he has any hope of landing a record-setting contract.
NL Notes: Kluber, Padres, Dodgers, Harper, Nats, Cubs, Boras/Phils
The Padres persist in their dogged pursuit of Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s JP Morosi, who notes that the club would prefer to hold on to each of its top five prospects. The Tribe reportedly “have interest” in lefty Adrian Morejon, who, despite his status as a consensus top 50-75 prospect, wouldn’t fall into the aforementioned category in a loaded Padre farm. Still, it’s tough to see a deal consummated without one of those players; Cleveland, after all, has been widely reported to be seeking a Chris Sale-esque return for Kluber, and wouldn’t likely settle for even high-grade chaff. If the club is still interested in dealing the 32-year-old ace, the Padres would be seem a perfect fit: the club is loaded not only with blue-chip prospects, but also sport a glut of young, if underperforming, outfielders at every position. Morosi lists Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe as options, though the Tribe may also have its eyes on Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, in addition to the richly-paid Wil Myers.
More from the Senior Circuit …
- In the same article, Morosi reports that the Dodgers still “remain involved” in discussions for Kluber. The club certainly boasts its share of high-level farm talent – though it can’t match the San Diego riches – but thus far, under the tenure of Baseball Ops President Andrew Friedman, has been altogether opposed to dealing from the top of its farm. Multiple high-level departures would be an unequivocal sea change for the boys in blue, who may be feeling the pressure from a desperate fanbase after so many near-misses in the recent past. Adding Kluber to the top of the team’s rotation without a 25-man prune has to be tempting for even the most measured of front offices, but the slotted five (Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and Rich Hill) already rival any in the game.
- Though many executives questioned the veracity of the Nationals‘ reported 10-year, $300MM offer to Bryce Harper on the last day of the season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the offer was “indeed real,” and that the two sides continue to negotiate. Harper, it seems, would very much like to surpass the $325MM guaranteed to Giancarlo Stanton, though doesn’t appear to have the wind-ranging market he once envisioned. Some interested teams continue to disguise their intentions, but not the Cubs, who Rosenthal notes “would love” a shot at Harper, if only the front office could get the “unlikely” go-ahead from ownership.
- Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia details the Fightins’ unique relationship with agent Scott Boras over the years, which reached a tipping point over 1997’s bitter dispute with number two overall pick J.D. Drew. The Phillies, of course, are set to meet with Harper today in Las Vegas, and have long been considered the near-favorite for his services. Per Salisbury, the club plans to address recent reports that the 26-year-old star is not fond of Philadelphia, which would seem to strike a death knell to the team’s chances. Among all potential suitors with near-term competitive ambitions, the Phils have the greatest need – and, perhaps, the most available cash – for Harper, and perhaps the team’s recent amenability with Boras could tip the scales in its direction.