Adam Morgan Retires
Left-hander Adam Morgan hasn’t played since opting out of a minor league deal with the Astros in May 2022, and The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (Twitter link) reports that the seven-year MLB veteran has retired. Morgan will call it a career after tossing 369 2/3 innings over 233 games with the Phillies and Cubs from 2015-21.
Six of those seven seasons were in Philadelphia, as Morgan was a third-round pick for the Phils in the 2011 draft. Despite a shoulder surgery that cost him the 2014 draft, he still made a pretty quick path to his MLB debut in June 2015, though he had pretty shaky results as a starter in his first two seasons. A move to the bullpen gave Morgan a niche as a multi-inning reliever, and he posted a 3.97 ERA over 133 2/3 relief innings from 2017-19.
Some other injuries hampered Morgan in 2019, and after struggling over 13 innings for Philadelphia in the shortened 2020 season, Morgan underwent a flexor tendon repair surgery in October 2020 that kept him off the mound until May 2021. This return came with the Cubs’ Triple-A team, as Morgan signed a minor league deal with Chicago that offseason after the Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man roster.
Morgan made it back to the Show for 25 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2021, posting a 4.26 ERA in what ended up being his final big league season. For his career, the southpaw had a 4.80 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate over his 369 2/3 frames. Unsurprisingly, most of Morgan’s success came against left-handed batters, who managed only a .215/.291/.331 slash line against the hurler in 574 plate appearances.
Morgan caught on with the Astros during the 2021-22 offseason, but enacted the opt-out clause in his contract since no opportunities were emerging for him on Houston’s MLB roster. The lefty has now chosen to hang up his spikes altogether at age 33, and went back to the University of Alabama (where Morgan played college ball) to get his degree. Gelb notes that Morgan is a co-founder of Objective X-Ray, an organization devoted to providing mental health resources and financial assistance to military veterans and first responders.
We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Morgan on his baseball career, and wish him all the best in his post-playing days.
Dombrowski Discusses Phillies' Pitching
- Teams have been calling the Phillies in search of starting pitching, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. If that sounds unusual given Philadelphia’s own rotation needs, Dombrowski noted that teams are constantly looking for arms, but especially this early in the season, asking prices are “exorbitant” in trade talks. Though the Phils have only a 25-27 record, they’re still in the thick of a crowded wild card race, and obviously the 2022 Phillies are an example of a team who roared back after a slow start. It doesn’t sound like the Phillies have any plans to be deadline sellers of any kind, but in regards to the team’s own rotation, Dombrowski said the club might still be open to using Matt Strahm as a fifth starter if necessary later in the year. “If we have to do that….we’d rather save that. Because if you do it now, [Strahm is] going to be done by the first of August, and he’s very valuable for us,” Dombrowski said, referring to Strahm’s lack of workload while pitching as a reliever from 2020-22.
Phillies Notes: First Base, Painter, Song, Pache, Alvarado
TODAY: Hall and Pache will both begin rehab assignments at lower A-ball Clearwater this week, with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb tweeting that Hall will start action on Tuesday and Pache on Wednesday. Alvarado played catch today but didn’t throw his bullpen due to feeling “a little sore.”
MAY 26: After long-time first baseman Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn ACL during Spring Training, the Phillies were left entering the season with a hole at first base for the first time in years. That appeared to open the door for Darick Hall, who impressed in 41 games last year, to take the lion’s share of the starts at first base this season, but Hall suffered a torn ligament in his thumb just six games into the 2023 campaign that required surgery, and has been on the shelf ever since.
Since then, the Phillies have relied on a timeshare between Kody Clemens and Alec Bohm at first base to acceptable but uninspiring results. In 22 games with the Phillies this season, Clemens has slashed a solid .241/.302/.483 that’s good for a wRC+ of 109. That wRC+ figure improves to 127 against right-handed pitching, with Clemens posting a much stronger .255/.321/.529 slash line against righties so far, albeit in a small sample size of just 56 plate appearances. Bohm, meanwhile, has slashed .269/.324/.409 with a wRC+ of just 99 in 204 plate appearances this season, though in 60 plate appearances against lefties, that slash line improves to a healthy .268/.300/.518 figure that’s good for a wRC+ of 115.
While a platoon of Clemens and Bohm has held down the fort capably at the cold corner so far this season, as the club’s wRC+ of 98 at first base this season ranks just 20th in the majors. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that recently-released Cubs first baseman Eric Hosmer could be a fit, though Hosmer has slashed an abysmal .234/.280/.330 in 100 plate appearances this season that’s 32% worse than league average in terms of wRC+. The Phillies have reportedly also considered using superstar Bryce Harper at first base as a way to open up the DH spot while protecting Harper from high-intensity throws in the outfield, though Harper has spent just a third of an inning at first base during his career to this point.
Fortunately for the Phillies, such drastic measures may not be needed at all, as MLB.com notes Hall could begin a rehab assignment as soon as next week, putting him on track to potentially return shortly after he’s eligible to do so on June 5. Hall, who slashed .250/.282/.522 with 18 extra base hits in just 41 games last season, could provide a significant boost to the club’s production at first base with a healthy return.
Hall is far from the only injured Phillies player who has received a positive injury update in recent days, as GM Dave Dombrowski has also expressed optimism that top prospect Andrew Painter and Rule 5 pick Noah Song will both pitch competitively this season. As noted by MLB.com, Dombrowski left open the possibility that Painter, who is currently throwing off a mound from 50-55 feet, could impact the big league club at some point this season. As for Song, he will of course have to be added to the active roster within 30 days of beginning a rehab assignment, and will shed Rule 5 restrictions after spending 90 days on the club’s active roster.
Meanwhile, both center fielder Cristian Pache and lefty reliever Jose Alvarado are targeting returns to big league action at some point next month, with rehab assignments expected for both players in the coming weeks, per MLB.com.
A long-time top prospect, Pache struggled badly with the bat during the first 126 games of his big league career, with a slash line of just .156/.205/.234 during that time. That brutal offensive production led the A’s to trade him to the Phillies just before the start of the 2023 campaign, where Pache got off to a hot start with a .360/.360/.600 slash line in 18 games before hitting the injured list with a torn meniscus at the end of April. An elite defender in center field, Pache figures to shore up an outfield defense that currently features Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the corners flanking center fielder Brandon Marsh upon his return.
Alvarado, meanwhile, was placed on the injured list early this month with elbow inflammation after his own hot start to the 2023 campaign where he pitched to a 0.63 ERA in 14 1/3 innings of work. The 28-year-old Alvarado, who signed an extension with the club during the spring, threw a bullpen session on Wednesday and figures to throw another tomorrow before progressing to facing live hitters on Tuesday. Once Alvarado returns, he figures to be an immediate factor in the club’s late inning mix alongside Seranthony Dominguez and Craig Kimbrel.
Phillies Claim Cal Stevenson
The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve claimed outfielder Cal Stevenson off waivers from the Giants. He’s been optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Philadelphia transferred Rule 5 right-hander Noah Song from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
Stevenson originally came to the Giants from the A’s, coming over in exchange for cash. He went hitless in 12 plate appearances as a Giant and has just a .145/.259/.188 slash in 83 trips to the plate at the big league level. That’s an unsightly look, of course, but it comes in a tiny sample.
Down in the minors, he’s been a much more productive hitter. Stevenson touts a .271/.382/.386 batting line with seven home runs and 21 steals in 26 attempts. He’s walked at a hefty 15% clip in Triple-A against a lower-than-average 18.2% strikeout rate. Stevenson can play all three outfield spots, though the bulk of his work has come in center field.
The Phils don’t necessarily have a dire outfield need, with Kyle Schwarber, breakout 25-year-old Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos lining up from left to right, respectively. However, with Cristian Pache on the mend from surgery to repair a meniscus tear, Philadelphia also doesn’t have a true fourth outfielder. Veteran utilityman Josh Harrison is no stranger to the outfield corners, and rookie infielder/outfielder Dalton Guthrie has spent time in center field. However, Guthrie has more experience on the infield than in the outfield. Stevenson will give the Phillies a pure fourth outfield option who carries nearly 1800 professional innings of experience in center, plus another 1300 in the corners.
Phillies Claim Dylan Covey Off Waivers
The Phillies announced that they have claimed right handed pitcher Dylan Covey off waivers from the Dodgers. To make room, the team has transferred first baseman Darick Hall to the 60-day IL. Covey had been designated for assignment by the Dodgers.
It was short stint for Covey in Dodger blue, as he was selected on Wednesday, threw four innings of relief after Dustin May was removed after just one inning with elbow pain. Covey was then DFA’d shortly after. The 31-year-old had been working at Triple-A, where he owned a 4.22 ERA over 32 innings.
The former fourth round pick by the Athletics owns a career 6.54 ERA over 268 1/3 big league innings between the White Sox, Red Sox and now Dodgers. The Phillies are in need of pitching depth as they try to recover from a five game losing run that the team is on. Through the month of May, they’re sporting an ERA of 5.36. They also saw Ranger Suarez throw just two innings last night, so had to rely heavily on their bullpen to get them through the game.
Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
Phillies Option Bailey Falter
The Phillies made a move on the pitching staff this afternoon, optioning southpaw Bailey Falter to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Reliever Erich Uelmen was recalled to take the open active roster spot.
Falter was pushed into an unexpectedly important season-opening role for Philadelphia. Spring Training injuries to Ranger Suárez and top prospect Andrew Painter ensured Falter would open the year in the starting five. Falter had started 16 of 20 appearances last season, working to a 3.76 ERA in that capacity, so it wasn’t an unfamiliar role. The Phils seemed likely to push him into a depth role if everyone were healthy but the aforementioned injuries threw both Falter and Matt Strahm into the rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker.
The 26-year-old Falter has had a rough first six weeks to the season. He’s surrendered a 5.13 ERA over 40 1/3 innings as his strikeout rate has dropped from 21.2% to 16%. His swinging strike percentage has had a correspondingly notable dip from 11% to 7.6% this season. Falter has thrown plenty of strikes and likely been a bit unlucky to carry a 58.1% strand rate over his first eight outings. He’s given up seven home runs, though — an issue throughout his career — and seen the marked drop in whiffs.
Falter gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Giants last night. They were all technically unearned because they came with two outs in an inning in which Bryson Stott had committed an error, but Falter allowed eight hits (including a longball) out of 22 batters faced. That was enough for the Phils to go in a different direction for the time being.
Suárez is back from the injured list to take the fourth rotation spot. Philadelphia has been using Strahm out of the bullpen of late despite his strong start to the year out of the rotation. Manager Rob Thomson said this evening that Strahm was not an option to start Sunday against the Cubs, when Falter’s turn through the rotation will come up (via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). He could work multiple innings behind an opener or as part of a bullpen game, while Thomson hinted the organization could also select the contract of a pitcher who is not currently on the 40-man roster.
Phillies Reinstate Ranger Suarez From 15-Day Injured List
Ranger Suarez is set to make his season debut, as the Phillies reinstated the left-hander from the 15-day injured list. Suarez is slated to start tonight’s game against the Rockies. The corresponding move was made yesterday, when the Phillies optioned right-hander Luis Ortiz to Triple-A.
Left forearm tightness prematurely ended Suarez’s work with Venezuela during the World Baseball Classic, and the southpaw ended up starting the season on the 15-day IL due to what was described as an elbow strain. While missing almost a month and a half of action is no small matter, it is at least good news that Suarez avoided any of the more serious and longer-term injuries that can arise from forearm and elbow issues. Suarez looked pretty sharp over three minor league rehab outings, allowing just one earned run over nine total innings pitched at Double-A and Triple-A.
After beginning his first three big league seasons as a reliever, Suarez had a breakout 2021 season while working out of both the rotation and the bullpen, posting a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings. Given a full-time role in Philadelphia’s rotation in 2022, Suarez posted a 3.65 ERA over 155 1/3 frames, capitalizing on a 55.4% grounder rate and some solid hard-contact numbers despite below-average strikeout and walk rates. Suarez then took things up another level during the Phillies’ playoff run, delivering an excellent 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 postseason innings.
Technically, the Phillies didn’t miss much from Suarez’s absence, since Matt Strahm pitched well in fill-in capacity in the rotation. However, Strahm was moved back to the bullpen in advance of Suarez’s return, as the Phils have opted to continue using Bailey Falter as a starting pitcher. Falter has only a 5.75 ERA over 36 innings and seven starts this season, though he isn’t alone in struggling, as Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Taijuan Walker have all gotten off to varying degrees of slow starts.
Phillies Place Jose Alvarado On Injured List
6:29pm: The MRI showed only inflammation, no structural damage, Thomson told reporters (including Gelb). He’ll be shut down from throwing for a few days but seems to have avoided a serious injury.
12:14pm: Alvarado has already undergone an MRI and is meeting with a doctor to evaluate the results, tweets Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Gelb adds that manager Rob Thomson has acknowledged that he is “a little concerned, for sure.”
11:07am: The Phillies announced Wednesday that closer Jose Alvarado has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his left elbow. His IL stint is retroactive to May 8. Right-hander Andrew Bellatti has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list in place of Alvarado.
The team hasn’t provided a timetable on the injury yet, but the loss of Alvarado even for a minimal stint is a notable blow to the roster. Alvarado, who signed a two-year extension prior to the season, has been one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball this season. He’s fired 14 1/3 innings of 1.88 ERA ball with a sensational 46.2% strikeout rate that trails only Cincinnati’s Alexis Diaz for the MLB lead. More impressive is the fact that Alvarado, whose previous command issues are well documented, has yet to issue a walk or hit a batter so far in 2023.
With Alvarado sidelined for at least the next two weeks the Phillies will likely turn to a combination of Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez and perhaps Gregory Soto to close down games. Alvarado leads the team with five saves but hasn’t been the sole closer anyhow, as Kimbrel has three saves of his own.
Kimbrel was tagged for three runs in his first appearance of the season before going on a dominant stretch of 10 appearances (10 2/3 innings, two runs, 14-to-4 K/BB ratio). He’s since slipped again, yielding a combined six runs in one inning during two appearances at Dodger Stadium earlier this month, which sent his ERA careening to its current 7.62 level. Dominguez saved nine games for the 2022 Phillies but currently has a 5.02 ERA and has seen his strikeout rate plummet from 29.5% to 20.5% in 2023. Soto notched 30 saves for the 2022 Tigers and is sporing a career-best 30.8% strikeout rate, but he’s also walked 13.8% of his opponents, which has contributed to a lackluster 4.50 ERA.
Suffice it to say, the Phillies certainly aren’t lacking in talented arms with closing experience. However, Alvarado was the only one of the bunch performing at an elite (or even above-average) level early in the 2023 season. They’ll hope for a quick turnaround with no long-term, lingering effects — due both to his general excellence and the nature of the contract he signed six weeks ago. Alvarado would’ve been a free agent following the 2023 season, but he signed a two-year, $18.55MM extension with a club option for a third year in 2026.
The Encouraging Developments Of Brandon Marsh
Just as the trade deadline was approaching last year, the Phillies sent sent catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels in order to acquire center fielder Brandon Marsh. The latter was one of the top prospects in the league a few years ago but was relatively overshadowed on an Angels team that had stars like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Marsh was perhaps best known for trying to make his head suit his surname, as he didn’t do too much to stand out with the bat.
Making his debut in 2021, he got into 70 games and took 260 trips to the plate. He struck out in 35% of those, walked in 7.7% of them and hit just a pair of home runs. He finished that year with a .254/.317/.356 batting line and an 85 wRC+, indicating he was 15% below league average. Up until the trade last year, it was more of the same. In 323 plate appearances for the Halos prior to the deal, he struck out 36.2% of the time, walked at a 6.8% clip and slashed .226/.284/.353 for a 79 wRC+.
The move to the Phillies seems to have been a turning point, however. His walk rate actually dropped to 4.3% after coming to Philadelphia last year, but his strikeout also dipped to 29.7%. That was still much higher than league average but a noticeable improvement from his own track record. That led to a .288/.319/.455 batting line and 114 wRC+. Here in 2023, he’s off to a tremendous .314/.402/.578 start and a 164 wRC+.
There’s one big caveat to throw out here, as Marsh currently has a .444 batting average on balls in play that no hitter could sustain. Last year’s league leader, for instance, was Paul Goldschmidt and his .368 mark. Once Marsh sees his BABIP figure regress, his overall numbers won’t be quite so gaudy. But digging under the hood reveals there’s still plenty of things to be encouraged by. He’s striking out at a 29.9% clip that is definitely still high but more manageable than the roughly 35% clip he was at previously. He’s also walking at an amazing 12% clip, well above this year’s 8.8% league average. Considering how rarely he took free passes before, that’s an excellent sign.
The batted ball metrics also shed some positive light on the better results, as basically everything has improved relative to last year. His barrel rate is up from 7.4% to 10.4%. His average exit velocity was 89.2 mph last year but is at 92 mph in 2023. His hard hit rate has gone from 38.2% to 47.8%. It’s still a fairly small sample of 117 plate appearances but he’s striking out less, walking more, hitting the ball harder and doing so more often. And it doesn’t seem to have come out of nowhere.
Back in October, when the Phillies were in the World Series, Marsh and hitting coach Kevin Long spoke to Sam Blum of The Athletic about the changes that had been made to his swing. “I devised a game plan on what I was going to do with his swing,” Long said. “And the mechanics of his swing. I always start by getting guys closer to the hitting position than further away. So we spread him out. We got him into his legs. It worked.”
All of these offensive improvements are a great coup since Marsh was already a valuable contributor as a glove-first center fielder. Defensive Runs Saved doesn’t seem to like him in center much, putting him slightly below average in each of his three seasons thus far. Ultimate Zone Rating has him in the positive range, though, and Outs Above Average has him at +5 through 1,251 innings. Marsh is also ranked in the 88th percentile in terms of sprint speed and has 17 stolen bases in his career thus far.
With all of those traits, FanGraphs calculated him as having produced 2.4 wins above replacement in 204 games over 2021 and 2022, even while hitting at a subpar rate. Now with much better offense this year, he’s already at 1.3 fWAR in just 33 games, more than halfway to his previous total in a fraction of the time. As mentioned earlier, he’s due for a bit of regression, but there are reasons to suspect he’ll eventually settle somewhere that’s much better than his previous work.
The 25-year-old came into this year with one year and 78 days of service time, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. For a Phillies team that has spent big on players including Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos, and would also like to get Aaron Nola signed to an extension, getting big value out of an overlooked player like Marsh is an important victory.