NL Central Notes: Brewers Pitching, Cardinals, Reynolds
Heading into the off-season, the Brewers have a number of quality players and like any smaller market team, their dwindling years of control make them speculative trade candidates. Star pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are both entering their final two seasons of control, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Brewers are more likely to add to their roster around those two than look to deal them.
Burnes followed up last year’s NL Cy Young winning campaign with another brilliant season, throwing 202 innings of 2.94 ERA ball. He struck out 243 batters (1st in NL) and while he’s not a finalist for the Cy Young award in 2022, he’ll certainly receive some down-ballot votes. Woodruff finished fifth in Cy Young voting last year, and pitched to a 3.05 ERA across 153 1/3 innings in 2022. Woodruff is due $11MM in arbitration, while Burns slightly tops that with $11.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ projections. A trade of either could give the Brewers farm system – which ranked 13th on Baseball America’s mid-season rankings – a massive boost.
After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and finishing seven games back of the Cardinals, it might’ve been an opportune time to retool a little and replenish their farm system, but instead it appears they’ll look to bounce back by adding to their current core in 2023. According to RosterResource, the Brewers payroll currently projects at around $130MM, $7MM shy of their final mark in 2022. While it’s unclear if the Brewers plan to increase payroll, as things stand that doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to improve and try and catch the Cardinals, though they could opt to non-tender some of their arbitration-eligible players to free up some payroll space.
Here’s some more from around the National League Central:
- The Cardinals have a clear need at catcher following the retirement of Yadier Molina, and it seems they could fill that hole with the top free agent catcher Willson Contreras. According to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, the Cards are one team (alongside the Tigers and Astros) to have expressed interest in Contreras. The slugging catcher hit 22 home runs and slashed .243/.349/.466 in 113 games this year with the Cubs. They did issue him with a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals would have to forfeit a draft pick in the event they did sign him. Currently Andrew Knizner is the top catcher on the Cardinals depth chart, but he profiles as more of a backup so it’s not surprising to see the team linked with free agent catchers.
- Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds‘ elite production and years of control – along with Pittsburgh’s ongoing rebuild – have made him one of the most coveted trade pieces in recent years, but according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Bucs are unlikely to trade him this off-season. Reynolds can be a free agent after the 2025 season, and despite their second-straight 100-loss year, Morosi says the Pirates believe they can be competitive within that window. Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 home runs in 2022, a solid year but down on his lofty standards. A year ago, Reynolds slashed .302/.390/.522 and finished eleventh in NL MVP voting. On the whole, Reynolds is a quality hitter that almost any major league team would find room for. Defensively, Reynolds has split time between left and center fields, but grades out better in left with seven Defensive Runs Saved there in his career, against -16 in center. He’s put up 13.6 bWAR across four seasons (including the pandemic-shortened 2020 year) and has given Pittsburgh a star to cheer for through some lean years. Ultimately, there’s reasonable cases to be made for and against trading Reynolds, and while Morosi’s tweet doesn’t rule out a trade by any stretch, given Pittsburgh’s turned down trade interest in recent years there’s a good chance they keep him and look to build around him again in 2023.
Pirates Outright Six Players
The Pirates have outrighted Peter Solomon, Beau Sulser, Jason Delay, Blake Cederlind, Eric Stout and Zack Collins off their 40-man roster, per a team announcement. Both Stout and Collins have elected free agency. The made the moves after reinstating Canaan Smith-Njigba, Colin Holderman, Yerry De Los Santos, Cederlind and Max Kranick off the 60-day IL.
Solomon, 26, was claimed off waivers from the Astros in September. He never made it to the majors in Pittsburgh, staying at Triple-A for his brief stint with the Bucs. Across both team’s Triple-A affiliates he threw 109 2/3 innings of 5.58 ERA ball, striking out eight batters per nine innings and walking 4.4. He did make it to the majors in 2021 for the Astros, throwing 14 innings of 1.29 ERA ball, although that was held together by an 88.9% LOB rate.
Sulser was a tenth round draft pick in 2017, and made it to the majors for the first time in 2022. He had a 3.72 ERA across 9 2/3 innings in Pittsburgh, before the Orioles claimed him off waivers in May. There, he spent much of the year in the minors but threw 12 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball in the bigs. Altogether, Sulser would strike out 19.1% of major league batters and walk 9.1% in 2022.
The Pirates used no fewer than eight catchers in 2022, and despite Delay spending the first few months of the season at Triple-A, he wound up as their starter by season’s end and his 57 games at catcher were the most on the team. Across those appearances, he hit just .213/.265/.271 with one home run. The bat was never Delay’s strength, and he does grade out well defensively behind the plate.
Cederlind came through the Pirates system as a strong relief pitcher, but injuries have derailed his career in recently. After making his major league debut in 2020 and tossing four innings out of Pittsburgh’s bullpen he underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2021. That is never a quick recovery, but Cederlind had to undergo a second surgery this year to remove loose bodies from his elbow, and as such never pitched in either 2021 or 2022.
Pittsburgh purchased Stout from the Cubs midway through the 2022 campaign, and wound up throwing 18 2/3 innings out of their bullpen. His 5.79 ERA doesn’t show much promise, and Stout will need to find a way to limit the walks, after he gave up 15 free passes this season in Pittsburgh.
The sixth man to be outrighted was Collins, a former top-100 prospect out of the White Sox system. It never worked out for the catcher in Chicago, and the White Sox shipped him to the Blue Jays for Reese McGuire at the start of the season. He struggled there, hitting .194/.266/.417 with four home runs across 79 plate appearances. The Pirates claimed him off waivers in September, but he picked up just a solitary hit across 29 plate appearances.
After these moves, and Pittsburgh’s earlier acquisition of first baseman Ji-Man Choi from the Rays, their 40-man roster is full.
Pirates Acquire Ji-Man Choi From Rays
The Pirates have landed their new first baseman, announcing agreement with the Rays on a deal that brings in Ji-Man Choi. Minor league pitcher Jack Hartman goes to Tampa Bay in a one-for-one swap.
The move brings to an end Choi’s four-plus year tenure in Tampa Bay. The Rays first acquired the first baseman from the Brewers in June 2018, sending utilityman Brad Miller to Milwaukee in a swap of big leaguers. Choi hit the ground running, putting up a .269/.370/.506 line in 49 games down the stretch. He staked a claim to a regular job in the Rays first base/designated hitter rotation, one he’s held the past few years.
Choi has been an above-average overall hitter in each of the past three seasons. He strikes out a fair amount and has hit between .229 and .233 the whole time, but he compensates for the mediocre batting averages by drawing plenty of free passes. Choi has walked in around 14% of his plate appearances in each of the last three years, pushing his on-base percentage into the .330 to .350 range. He typically gets into the double-digits in home runs and approaches 20 doubles annually.
Going back to the start of 2020, Choi owns a .231/.342/.399 line in 869 cumulative plate appearances. That offensive production checks in 14 points better than league average, by measure of wRC+. A left-handed hitter, Choi has only mustered a .203/.290/.301 line in his career against southpaws. He’s a .247/.355/.454 hitter against right-handed pitching, making him a solid platoon option for first base and designated hitter. It’s not too dissimilar from the role Daniel Vogelbach played for the Bucs in 2022 before they dealt him to the Mets.
Choi has between five and six years of MLB service, so he’s going through the arbitration process for the final time. MLTBR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $4.5MM salary, a modest but not completely insignificant amount. He was part of a large arbitration class in Tampa Bay and looked like a possible non-tender candidate. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday the Rays were marketing Choi at this week’s GM meetings. Morosi added pitchers Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos and Shawn Armstrong as other players the Tampa Bay front office was discussing with other teams.
The Pirates entered the offseason seeking first base help, and they’ll take on Choi’s final season of club control to plug that gap. Factoring in his arbitration projection brings the Bucs’ 2023 payroll slate to an estimated $50MM, per Roster Resource. Pittsburgh opened this past season with a payroll in the $56MM range. The Pirates are sure to search for catching help and are likely to bolster their starting rotation within the next few months, even as they field offers on big leaguers like Kevin Newman as part of the ongoing rebuild. Choi himself could be a midseason trade candidate if he’s hitting up to his usual standards and the Pirates fall back out of contention next summer.
Hartman, meanwhile, was a fourth-round pick in 2020. Pittsburgh nabbed him out of Appalachian State University as a $60K senior signee. The 24-year-old righty spent this year in Low-A, working as a reliever. He put up a 6.27 ERA through 18 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 20.4% of opponents against a massive 17.2% walk rate. The Rays will hope a change of scenery can push him up the minor league ladder; he’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if not added to the 40-man roster.
Naver Sports in Korea was first to report Choi had been traded to the Pirates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the Rays would receive a minor league player in return.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Pirates Claim Ryan Vilade
The Pirates have claimed outfielder Ryan Vilade off waivers from the Rockies, per announcements from both clubs. Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster is now full.
Vilade, 23, was the No. 48 overall pick in the 2017 draft and ranked among the Rockies’ best prospects just last offseason, landing No. 6 on Baseball America’s organizational rankings. The team over at BA also placed Vilade tenth among Rox farmhands just this past summer.
Despite replaying the Triple-A level for a second time in 2022, Vilade had a season to forget, hitting just .249/.345/.352 with five home runs and ten stolen bases in 99 games. The Oklahoma native was drafted as a shortstop but has quickly slid down the defensive spectrum, first moving to third base and now spending the bulk of his time in the outfield corners. Vilade’s glove was never his carrying tool, however, as he was viewed as a bat-first prospect from the time of his selection.
Vilade’s bat indeed stood out in the lower minors, but after the canceled 2020 minor league season he jumped from High-A in 2019 directly to Triple-A and turned in lackluster results. He’s now played 216 games at that level and owns a .269/.342/.385 slash in 948 plate appearances. He made a brief MLB debut in 2021 but went hitless in seven plate appearances.
The Pirates will hope that a change of scenery and some new coaching can help coax another level out of Vilade’s bat in the upper minors. He won’t turn 24 until February and has a pair of minor league options remaining, so he can give the Bucs some flexible outfield depth if he survives the offseason on the 40-man roster.
Pirates Promote Mendy Lopez To Coaching Staff
The Pirates will be adding Mendy Lopez to their big league coaching staff, according to Antonio Puesan, digital marketing director for the Toros del Este club in the Dominican Winter League (Twitter link). Lopez isn’t replacing anyone on the Pirates’ current staff, but Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets that Lopez will be focusing on infield coaching duties. Bench coach Don Kelly frequently works with the Bucs’ infielders, but he’ll now have one less duty on his plate with Lopez joining the coaching ranks.
Lopez joins a Major League staff for the first time, after working as the hitting coach with Pittsburgh’s lower A-ball affiliate. The 49-year-old previously spent four seasons as the Pirates’ field coordinator in Latin America, as well as three seasons as a manager with the Pirates’ Dominican Summer League squad.
Fans may best remember Lopez from his playing days, as he spent seven seasons in the majors from 1998-2004. Most of that time was spent with the Royals, but Lopez also spent parts of two seasons in Pittsburgh, suiting up for 25 games with the Bucs in 2001-02. Lopez’s playing career extended well beyond his time in the majors, as he also played with the KBO League’s Samsung Lions in 2004, and then with multiple Mexican League teams from 2006-13.
Pirates Outright Jose Godoy
The Pirates have sent catcher Jose Godoy outright to Triple-A Indianapolis, per his MLB transactions page. Godoy was designated for assignment last week. The 27-year-old can now become a minor league free agent.
Godoy has made a handful of appearances in the majors over the past two seasons for the Mariners, Twins and Pirates, but struggled to hit much. In a combined 62 plate appearances between 2021-22, Godoy tallied just seven hits while striking out 23 times. This year at Triple-A, he hit .227/.290/.364 with six home runs across 53 games for the Twins’ and Pirates’ affiliates.
Originally signed as an amateur free agent by the Cardinals in 2011, Godoy labored through the minors for eight seasons before being released in 2020. The Mariners picked him shortly after and he cracked their MLB roster early in the 2021 season and has bounced round the majors since. While he’s not hit in his brief stint in the big leagues, there should still be a market for him to latch on to a team as minor league catching depth in 2023.
Jose Quintana’s Resurgence Sets Up Intriguing Trip To Free Agency
When the Pirates inked veteran starter Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM deal last November, it generated little fanfare. After a couple of rough seasons, Quintana was no longer viewed as a reliable starting option and expectations on the 33-year-old were minimal. However, the Pirates’ modest bet on Quintana paid off handsomely, as the southpaw will go down as one of the better free agent signings of the 2021-22 offseason.
Quintana turned in 165 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball across 32 starts, 20 of those came with the Pirates before he was traded to the division rival Cardinals at the trade deadline. Only 16 pitchers had a better fWAR than Quintana’s 4.0 total, and Quintana will certainly get some votes as NL Comeback Player of the Year.
Quintana has been a workhorse for much of his career, beginning with four straight seasons of 200+ innings with the White Sox from 2013-16. Much more than just an innings-eater, Quintana posted a 3.35 ERA over that four-season stretch, highlighted by a 2016 season that saw him make the All-Star team and finish tenth in AL Cy Young Award voting. The White Sox weren’t in contention during this period, and with a rebuild in progress, Quintana became one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The Sox held onto the left-hander until July 2017, before dealing Quintana to the crosstown Cubs for four prospects — including Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.
It’s a trade that still generates some hard feelings in Wrigleyville, as Jimenez and Cease have blossomed into stars for the White Sox and Quintana’s production took a step back as a Cub. He posted a 4.24 ERA over his 439 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2017-20, and thumb surgery and a lat injury limited him to just 10 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, marking the first significant injury absences of Quintana’s career.
Hitting free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, the Angels signed Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal, hoping that he could bounce back and help solidify the rotation. Unfortunately, Quintana pitched his way out of their rotation altogether with an unsightly 8.23 ERA in ten starts. He fared slightly better in their bullpen, but the Angels cut ties with the lefty in August 2021, and Quintana didn’t have much success in five relief appearances with the Giants after San Francisco claimed him off waivers.
So, where did it go wrong? For one, the 2021 version of Quintana was a statistical outlier from the rest of his career, as both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and walk rate (11.8%) were far above his career averages. Chasing the extra missed bats seemed to make Quintana a bit more of a predictable pitcher, especially since he also cut back on the use of his slider and started throwing a (mostly ineffective) changeup more often. As a result, batters were teeing off on Quintana’s offering, resulting in a career-worst home run rate.
To be fair, Quintana was also hampered by some bad luck in 2021, as his 3.94 SIERA took a far more favorable view of his performance than his 6.43 ERA. While Quintana didn’t help himself by allowing more homers and a ton of hard contact, he also didn’t get much assistance from the Angels’ mediocre defense, as evidenced by his huge .378 BABIP. (Angels pitchers had a collective .305 BABIP in 2021, the third-highest total in all of baseball.)
With a better Pirates defense behind him, Quintana got back on track this season. Quintana stuck with more or less the same mix of pitchers, though he has cut back on his fastball usage and leaned more heavily on his off-speed stuff. The lower fastball usage turned Quintana’s four-seamer into one of the most effective pitches thrown by any hurler in 2022, with a -17 Run Value according to Statcast.
Quintana’s strikeout (20.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates also returned to around his career norms, and his problems with the long ball almost entirely disappeared — his 5.3% homer rate was the lowest of his career, and his eight total home runs allowed were the lowest of any qualified pitcher in baseball. After finishing in only the sixth percentile of all pitchers in hard-contact percentage in 2021, Quintana zoomed back above average in 2022, as his 35.8% mark put him in the 68th percentile.
This production led to plenty of interest at the trade deadline, and St. Louis ended up landing both Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for right-hander Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcom Nunez. It was a nice return for the Pirates for a rental player, and the Cardinals were surely satisfied with their end of the deal. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA over his 62 2/3 innings after the trade, helping the Cards capture the NL Central. The southpaw then added 5 1/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, though a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown cost St. Louis the victory.
Given this success, Quintana looks like a solid bet to receive a multi-year contract in free agency this winter, though plenty of factors will weigh into the size of that deal. He turns 34 in January, and teams won’t forget about his 2020-21 struggles just because he turned things around this year. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted in his preview of the Cardinals’ offseason, Quintana is an option to return to St. Louis, but the Cardinals may opt to pursue cheaper pitching options in favor of a bigger splash elsewhere on the roster. Still, Quintana’s return to form makes him an attractive target for any number of teams who need quality and durability in the rotation.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Pittsburgh Pirates
MLBTR will be holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams. Use this link to read the transcript of the chat about the Pirates offseason!
Pirates Claim Ali Sánchez, Beau Sulser; Designate José Godoy
The Pirates have made a pair of waiver claims, according to their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Catcher Ali Sánchez was claimed from the Tigers and right-hander Beau Sulser was claimed from the Orioles. Additionally, the Pirates designated catcher José Godoy for assignment.
Sánchez, 26 in January, has a very limited MLB track record, getting into five games with the Mets in 2020 and two games with the Cardinals in 2021. The Cards kept him in the minors this year, before he went to the Tigers on a waiver claim in June. The Tigers also stashed him in Triple-A as depth, before designating him for assignment last week.
He is known as a glove-first catcher but showed some encouraging signs at the plate this year, walking in 12% of his plate appearances. His batting line in 291 trips to the plate this year was .262/.354/.389 for a wRC+ of 101, or 1% above league average.
The Bucs have a fairly wide open catching mix for next year, Jason Delay and Tyler Heineman getting the bulk of the work down the stretch in 2022. Neither of them hit much but they both posted strong defensive numbers. Delay hit .213/.265/.271 while Heineman slashed .217/.276/.268. They also have Zack Collins, though he spent more time at first base than behind the plate for Pittsburgh. Sánchez will be out of options next year and thus won’t be able to be sent to the minors without first being passed through waivers.
He seems to have replaced Godoy, 28, in the club’s catching plans. Godoy got into 10 MLB games this year between the Twins and Pirates, spending the bulk of his time in Triple-A. He only hit .197/.272/.299 down on the farm for the Twins but a much better .333/.357/.590 in Indianapolis. Still, it seems that wasn’t enough to hold onto a roster spot. Since he has been previously outrighted in his career, he would have the right to elect free agency if he passes through waivers again.
Sulser, 29 in May, began the year with the Pirates but went to the Orioles on a waiver claim in May. Between the two clubs, he threw 22 1/3 innings with a 3.63 ERA, 47.1% ground ball rate, 19.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. In 56 2/3 Triple-A innings, he had a much stronger strikeout rate of 24.3%. He will still be optionable in 2023, meaning he can shuttled between Triple-A and the majors again next year.
GM Ben Cherington Discusses Pirates’ Offseason
Pirates general manager Ben Cherington held his season-ending press conference today, broadly discussing several offseason topics with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey and other reporters. While the Bucs went 62-100 to post their seventh consecutive losing season, Cherington felt some progress was made among the team’s young player, both on the field and in the clubhouse.
This young core is key to the Pirates’ rebuilding strategy, but some veteran help may be added at specific positions. Cherington noted that first base, the starting rotation, and catcher are all areas of need to some degree, though in case of the catcher spot, the GM said “we feel increasingly good about that position, organizationally, certainly. At the major league level, really like the job that Jason Delay and Tyler Heineman did.”
This might count out a new deal with Roberto Perez, though Cherington said the Pirates “are keeping the door open” on Perez’s status. Signed to a one-year, $5MM contract last winter as some veteran reinforcement behind the plate, Perez played in only 21 games before undergoing a hamstring surgery that cost him the rest of the season. This makes it two straight injury-marred seasons for the veteran backstop, and while Perez is a two-time Gold Glover with a strong defensive track record, his checkered recent health situation will certainly lower his free agent price tag, if he lands a guaranteed deal at all.
A lower price, of course, helps the chances of Perez remaining in Pittsburgh, as the payroll is once again a key factor in the Bucs’ offseason decisions. Cherington again reiterated that “I really believe that we have the resources to win and that once we start winning, we’ll be able to sustain that,” and yet until that corner is turned, there doesn’t seem to be any expectation that the Pirates will make any significant expenditures.
Pittsburgh fans have long been critical of the Pirates’ lack of spending, as ownership didn’t much stretch the budget during the Bucs’ last stretch of winning baseball (three straight postseason appearances from 2013-15). The promise of increased spending down the road isn’t exactly welcome to a fanbase impatient for success, but Cherington said his front office is concentrating on the present realities of its rebuild process.
“I don’t believe focusing on payroll is the right thing to focus on in a town like Pittsburgh, in a place where a winning team is not going to be built in a way that is in other places,” Cherington said. “I understand where the question comes from, but the way we wake up every day and do our work, it’s just not the thing that we think about.”
As such, the Pirates won’t be breaking the bank to address their offseason needs, though first base has traditionally been a position where some solid production can be found at a lower price. The same could be true of the rotation, and the Bucs had success in this area last offseason with Jose Quintana‘s bounce-back year after signing a one-year, $2MM free agent deal. In terms of a general wishlist, Cherington is hoping to add more strikeouts to the pitching staff, and more runners on base for the lineup as a whole, not just at the first base spot.
Cherington said in August that Derek Shelton would be returning as Pittsburgh’s manager, and on Friday, Cherington added that the coaching staff would also be retained, apart from “considering someone getting an opportunity somewhere else or something like that.” If anything, Cherington hinted that the Bucs might add more personnel to what is already a deep coaching staff.