Padres Rumors

Eric Hosmer Has Reportedly Received Multiple 7-Year Offers

By Jeff Todd | January 4, 2018 at 9:43am CDT

9:43am: Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals have not made an offer worth $147MM over seven years to Hosmer, though they remain interested in re-signing him. Mellinger’s report doesn’t specifically refute the length of the offer or that one has been made. Nightengale did stress in yesterday’s report that the length of the offer was confirmed by at least one “high-ranking” member of the Royals, though it’s certainly possible that the overall guarantee has been overstated.

Jan. 4, 9:20am: Boras dismissed Nightengale’s numbers as “inaccurate” when speaking to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required and highly recommended), though he offered no further detail beyond that point. Rosenthal agrees with Nightengale’s assessment that Hosmer is seeking a larger contract both in length and total guarantee, noting that Hosmer is younger than the bulk of free agents that have received contracts of seven or more years in length.

Jan. 3, 1:25pm: San Diego’s offer is at seven years but has not reached $140MM, a source tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter).

8:25am: The market for Eric Hosmer appears to be heating up, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He cites sources “close to Hosmer” that say the first baseman has received nine-figure offers from both the Padres and the Royals.

San Diego, per the report, has dangled a seven-year deal at a healthy $140MM price tag — about $20MM more than had previously been suggested. But the incumbent Kansas City club is said to have topped that bid with a contract that would include a $147MM guarantee. Notably, Nightengale says he was able to confirm the length of the proposed contract terms with both organizations.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hosmer would only be able to secure a six-year guarantee at a $132MM price tag. That said, we noted that the 28-year-old was seeking more and could drive bidding northward if he found a few organizations that placed a particularly high value on his services.

It seems that’s just what has happened, as Hosmer is now evidently sitting on two appealing offers from two small-market teams that aren’t even expected to contend in 2018. The Royals, of course, are quite familiar with the first baseman and obviously feel his value outstrips the assessment of measures such as wins above replacement. And it seems that’s an opinion shared by the Pads, who must see Hosmer as a potential building block for a young roster that’s expected to bloom in the coming seasons.

For Kansas City, bringing back the team’s core star would not necessarily mean pushing the pedal down for 2018. Rather, the club has indicated throughout the winter that it’ll be drawing back payroll and looking to reload. But such a move would surely impact the team’s overall planning for the coming seasons and might impact its willingness to trade longer-term assets such as Danny Duffy.

Meanwhile, the Padres — whose interest has long been known — would clearly need to bump Wil Myers back into the outfield to make room for Hosmer. Making this deal might also mean dealing away some other assets to make the roster work, though again a signing wouldn’t necessarily be accompanied by other win-now moves. San Diego did recently pick up a short-term veteran at shortstop in Freddy Galvis, though that move is hardly a committing one and the team has mostly endeavored to fill its gaps with low-cost signings. It’s doubtful the organization would drastically alter its timeline in other areas, though certainly adding such a significant salary to the payroll would have a major impact on the options moving forward.

Notably, Hosmer is not just assessing which of these two contracts to take at this point. Rather, Nightengale says that Hosmer and his agent, Scott Boras, are “seeking at least an eight-year or nine-year deal.” Whether or not there’s further room for those offers to grow is not immediately clear, and it’s not entirely evident whether any other teams will enter the bidding in earnest. (The Cardinals have recently been suggested as having ongoing interest, though.) Regardless, it seems that Hosmer is in position to secure a massive contract that meets or exceeds most expectations.

NL West Notes: Dahl, D-Backs, Padres

By Steve Adams | January 3, 2018 at 11:08pm CDT

After a lost season due to a stress reaction in his rib cage, Rockies outfielder David Dahl has been cleared to begin swinging a bat, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 23-year-old Dahl, a longtime top prospect, turned heads with a .315/.359/.500 slash in 63 games as a rookie in 2016, but his injury prevented him from logging a single game in 2017. A November MRI, however, revealed that Dahl’s injury has finally healed completely, according to Harding. Dahl has since been performing rotational exercises and building muscle mass as a means of strengthening the problematic area and avoiding similar issues in 2018. Dahl explains to Harding that he attempted to work back numerous times in 2017, but while he’d feel strong after two to three weeks of rest at a time, his symptoms would resurface upon ramping up workouts. Dahl also details changes to his diet and nutrition, both with an eye toward maintaining muscle mass, that he feels will help him stay healthy and emerge as a factor for the Rockies.

Elsewhere in the division…

Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen tells Steve Gilbert of MLB.com that he doesn’t feel his offseason work is done yet. While Hazen states that there’s no signing or trade imminent, he also notes that he’s still actively exploring both markets and feels there’s room for additions to his Major League roster. Gilbert notes that multiple teams have approached the D-backs about lefty Patrick Corbin, who will be a free agent next winter and comes with a projected arbitration salary of $8.3MM. Moving Corbin or right-hander Zack Greinke would free up the D-backs to spend more on the free agent market. Gilbert notes that the Diamondbacks are keeping an eye out for a potential long-term option at catcher and is also on the lookout for depth in the outfield.
The Padres have been stockpiling rotation options for the coming season but are reluctant to commit to much in 2019 and beyond, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (hence the decision not to re-sign Jhoulys Chacin). The Friars already have Clayton Richard signed through 2019, with Dinelson Lamet, Luis Perdomo and Bryan Mitchell all representing cost-effective long-term options as well. With that group in place and prospects like Cal Quantrill, Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi and Jacob Nix in Double-A (plus Matt Strahm, Colin Rea and Robbie Erlin returning from injury), the Padres indeed are well-stocked with long-term potential. Cassavell notes that the Padres, who’ve also recently agreed to offseason deals with Jordan Lyles (on a big league deal), Tyson Ross (minor league deal) and Chris Young (minor league deal), are weighing a six-man rotation in 2018 and beyond.

Padres Reportedly Agree To Minors Pact With Tyson Ross

By Jeff Todd | January 3, 2018 at 1:56pm CDT

JAN. 3: Ross’s base salary would be $1.75MM, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He can earn up to $4.25MM in incentives, per the report, and has opt-out dates on May 15th and June 15th. Unsurprisingly, the deal includes a spring invite.

Regarding the incentives, Ross will need to hold down a rotation spot for virtually the entire season to max them out. Beginning with his fifth game started, he’d receive $150K; upon starting his twentieth outing (and ending at his 29th), Ross can earn $200K per start.

DEC. 29, 8:55pm: Ross would earn between $1MM and $2MM in base salary if he makes the club, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter), with additional incentives available based upon the number of games he starts.

5:24pm: The Padres have agreed to terms on a minor-league deal with righty Tyson Ross, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Presumably, he’ll receive an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Ross, 30, found success in his prior tenure with the Padres, compiling 522 innings of 3.16 ERA ball over four seasons. But he was non-tendered after missing virtually all of the 2016 campaign and eventually required thoracic outlet surgery.

While the hope was that Ross could bounce back after signing a one-year deal with the Rangers, he struggled badly in the 2017 season after a long rehab process. He averaged just 92 mph on his four-seam fastball — two or more clicks below his typical rate — and limped to a 7.71 ERA in 49 innings. Ross walked 37 batters while generating only 36 strikeouts and sported a meager 6.2% swinging-strike rate that was only about half of his typical level in San Diego.

Should the Padres find a way to get Ross back on track, he could conceivably represent quite a value. But there clearly wasn’t a great deal of optimism around the game, given that Ross had to settle for a non-roster accord just two years removed from a string of successful campaigns.

The Friars have had some success of late at finding rotation innings at bargain rates. If Ross is to crack the roster, though, he’ll have to earn his way on in camp. Presumably, he’ll compete with pitchers such as the just-acquired Bryan Mitchell and injury returnees Robbie Erlin, Colin Rea, and Matt Strahm.

Padres Avoid Arbitration With Carter Capps

By Jeff Todd | January 3, 2018 at 1:10pm CDT

The Padres have avoided arbitration with righty Carter Capps, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Capps will play at a $1,062,500 rate for the 2018 season.

That’s a bit less than the $1.3MM payday that MLBTR projected him to earn via arbitration, though Capps did not have a strong case for much of a raise. Last year, in his first season of eligibility, he earned $987,500, but did not pitch much in the ensuing season. He can be controlled for one additional campaign through the arb process.

Capps, 27, came to the Friars in the complicated 2016 Andrew Cashner deadline swap. At the time, Capps was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He finally made it back to the hill late in the 2017 campaign, though only in time to throw 12 1/3 innings. And his season ended with another procedure, this time to address thoracic outlet syndrome.

The latest surgery came after Capps showed diminished form in his return to the majors. He managed only seven strikeouts against two walks in his 11 appearances late in 2017. Of greater concern, perhaps, he worked in the 93 mph range with his fastball, over five miles per hour less than his peak.

Still, the Padres are obviously willing to stake a fairly minor bet on a rebound; the hope, perhaps, is that he can show renewed life after the thoracic outlet procedure. The upside is undeniable: Capps was utterly dominant in a breakout 2015 campaign, when he ran a 25.4% swinging-strike rate, 16.8 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9, and 1.16 ERA over 31 innings.

Free Agent Notes: Hosmer, JDM, Arrieta, Cards, Twins, Abad

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 1:29pm CDT

In his column today on the molasses-slow free agent market, Bob Nightengale of USA Today drops a few nuggets of information. The Padres’ offer to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer would promise him seven years, says Nightengale. Meanwhile, top open-market slugger J.D. Martinez is sitting on a five-year offer from the Red Sox. In other chatter, Nightengale suggests the Cubs could be willing to go as high as $110MM over four years to bring back Jake Arrieta. Of course, the teams and players just cited have likely known one another’s positions for some time now, and these stalemates have yet to be resolved. These details also fall in line with what has been reported previously about the respective situations, though they are surely interesting data points as we seek to divine when and how the free agent dam will finally break.

Taking Inventory: San Diego Padres

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 12:26pm CDT

The Padres are in a fairly flexible spot this offseason, as the team entered the winter with fairly low payroll obligations for the 2018 season and a long-term balance sheet that features just one notable commitment. While nobody really expects the team to contend in the coming season, its pursuit of Eric Hosmer shows that the organization would like to begin building toward MLB competitiveness.

On the whole, there’s no real reason to think the Padres need to trade any particular player. But the organization has one fairly obvious, high-end trade candidate and it also seems reasonaby likely that at least one veteran infielder will end up hitting the road.

Click here to view the previous entries in this series.

One-Year Rental

Chase Headley, 3B ($13MM in 2018): The Friars brought back their former star in a deal that was designed mostly to acquire righty Bryan Mitchell, who’ll compete for a rotation spot. Now, it seems likely that Headley will be dangled as a means of trimming some salary. Entering his age-34 season, Headley profiles as a solid average player who could hold down the fort for a year in the right circumstances. But his overall output with the bat has been average or worse over the past four seasons, so despite the limited contractual commitment, it seems likely the Padres will have to keep some of the salary if he ends up on the move.

Two Years of Control

Brad Hand, RP (projected $3.8MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): This is the one player who stands out as a premium veteran trade asset. With Orioles lefty Zach Britton suffering an offseason injury, and a busy market for free agent relievers, Hand stands out as a highly valuable asset. He has retired more than 11 batters per nine via strikeout in each of the past two seasons and upped his output in 2017, when he ran a 2.16 ERA over 79 1/3 innings and stepped seamlessly into the closer’s role. It’s arguable the Pads ought to cash in on Hand in the near term, rather than risking any injury or performance decline, though we haven’t heard much chatter surrounding him so far this winter.

Carter Capps, RP (projected $1.3MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): It was an open question whether the Padres would tender Capps a contract at all following his tepid return from Tommy John surgery. The 27-year-old managed just seven strikeouts and allowed nine earned runs in his 12 1/3 innings in 2017, while showing a whopping 5+ mph drop in his average fastball velocity and carrying only a 7.8% whiff rate. But the Padres evidently feel that Capps can still build himself back into being a quality reliever, and it’s certainly worth bearing in mind just how dominant he had become before the elbow injury. It seems unlikely he’ll be moved, but it’s certainly possible a roster need could push him out or that another organization may put a slightly higher value on his upside.

Clayton Richard, SP/RP ($6MM through 2019): The southpaw just inked an extension at the tail end of the 2017 campaign, so it’s quite unlikely the Pads would turn around and deal him before the start of the coming season. Instead, the 34-year-old is likely to hold down a rotation spot and perhaps eventually slide into a swingman role as situations dictate.

Longer-Term Assets

Yangervis Solarte, INF ($5.5MM through 2018, including buyout of 2019-20 club options): If the Friars don’t trade Headley, it may be because they find a better deal that involves Solarte. A solid switch-hitting option who can handle third base, second base, and even a bit of time at short, Solarte would fit on a lot of rosters around the game. The flexibility in his contract boosts his value, though surely other organizations won’t be offering up top talent for a player who is coming off of a personal-worst .255/.314/.416 season at the plate.

Wil Myers, 1B ($78.5MM through 2022, including buyout of club option for 2023): There’s no indication that the Padres have interest in shopping Myers, who had a less-than-inspiring first season under his new contract. Rather, it seems the club is weighing a move for free agent Eric Hosmer, which would bump Myers into a corner outfield spot. But Myers does carry the team’s only large, long-term contract, so he certainly merits mention.

Cory Spangenberg, UTIL (projected $2.0MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): In his most extensive MLB action, a 486 plate appearance run in 2017, Spangenberg turned in a .264/.322/.401 batting line with 13 home runs and 11 steals. That’s a handy batting line for a player who rated as an outstanding overall baserunner and can play just about anywhere on the field. Then again, the output was still below the league average and there are limits to Spangenberg’s defensive function; he graded poorly at third last year and isn’t really an option at short or in center. All told, though, he’s a useful asset who’d draw interest if dangled.

Kirby Yates, RP (projected $1.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): Though he’ll turn 31 before the start of the 2018 season and has not really thrived in prior attempts at the majors, Yates is an interesting player after a strong 2017 season. Home runs marred his balance sheet in the end, but it’s hard to ignore his 14.0 K/9 strikeout rate and robust 17.3% swinging-strike rate. Odds are the Padres will keep Yates and hope he can produce the results to match those promising peripherals, but his name could also come up in trade talks.

Matt Szczur, OF (projected $800K arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2021): It’s hard to imagine teams lining up for a player who seemingly profiles at best as a solid, right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder. But Szczur did produce at a roughly league-average rate over 237 plate appearances in 2017, most of which came after he moved to the Friars from the Cubs in the middle of the season. Most impressively, Szczur maintained a 14.3% walk rate over the season. He’s also still affordable as a Super Two.

Austin Hedges, C (pre-arb): In all likelihood, the 25-year-old Hedges is going to continue to take the bulk of the time behind the dish for the Padres in 2018 and beyond. But there’s some uncertainty in his outlook after a marginal .214/.262/.398 output with the bat in 2017, even if he did swat 18 long balls. It’s important to bear in mind that Hedges is considered a high-quality defender; indeed, he was one of the game’s highest-rated pitch framers in his first full season as a big leaguer. There may not be a ton of offensive upside, but the Padres have good reason to continue to allow Hedges to develop as a hitter while he gives a boost to the organization’s pitching staff.

Of course, the Padres have a variety of other younger players around who could conceivably also be traded. To take a few examples, it isn’t impossible to imagine deals involving outfielder Hunter Renfroe, starter Luis Perdomo, or reliever Phil Maton. But those and others don’t seem particularly likely to be targeted by contending organizations weighing win-now moves, so we needn’t consider them in detail. We’re also going to go ahead and assume that the team intends to utilize the just-acquired Freddy Galvis at shortstop, so there’s no real cause to weigh his trade candidacy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/17

By Mark Polishuk | December 30, 2017 at 7:21pm CDT

Some minor moves from around baseball…

The Padres released right-hander Jake Smith earlier this month, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Originally a 48th-round pick for the Giants in the 2011 draft, Smith has a 3.23 ERA, 11.9 K/9 and 2.86 K/BB rate over 253 2/3 minor league innings, working as a reliever in all but five of his 186 career appearances. He managed just 26 2/3 IP in 2017, however, with injuries limiting his time on the field. Smith’s only MLB experience consists of four innings for San Diego in 2016.

Padres To Sign Chris Young

By Jeff Todd | December 30, 2017 at 1:30pm CDT

SATURDAY: Young’s incentives begin at five games started and 30 innings pitched, and they can max out at approximately 30 starts and 120 innings, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link).

FRIDAY, 8:58pm: Young can earn a $1MM base salary if he makes the team, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The deal also includes as much as $6MM in potential incentives, with games started and innings pitched providing the standard.

6:50pm: The Padres are adding another former starter on a minors deal after striking agreement with Chris Young, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). The 38-year-old will join a Spring Training rotation battle that now also includes Tyson Ross.

Young, 38, opened the 2017 campaign with the Royals but was released in late June. He has rested up since, with reports indicating that he intended to ramp back up for another attempt at what would be his 14th MLB campaign.

At this point, it’s difficult to expect much out of Young, who stumbled to a 6.52 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 118 2/3 frames in the majors since the start of 2016. Interestingly, that slippage has occurred even with Young sporting a swinging-strike rate of over 11% — levels he had maintained over a full season only once in his career — by drastically increasing his slider usage. Then again, he has also been touched for 2.7 home runs per nine over the past two seasons.

Perhaps, though, Young can still find a way to be effective, particularly after a lengthy layoff. Before boosting his whiff rate, he had actually managed two consecutive seasons with excellent results. In 288 1/3 frames between 2014 and 2015, he worked to a 3.40 ERA. And he has continued to post above-average infield fly rates even as the other tinkering has left him prone to the long ball.

NL West Notes: Hirano, Mitchell, Rockies

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2017 at 10:40am CDT

New Diamondbacks reliever Yoshihisa Hirano, who has spent his entire pro career to date with the Orix Buffaloes in Nippon Professional Baseball, addressed the Japanese media following his completion of the contract and spoke about his jump from NPB to MLB (English link via the Kyodo News). Hirano said that the comfort he found using a Major League ball (rather than the slightly different NPB ball) during this year’s World Baseball Classic gave him confidence that he’d be able to pitch in MLB. As he became increasingly aware of MLB scouts attending his outings in Japan, he thought more and more about making the move. “Truthfully, if I hadn’t heard that I might not have been thinking of going,” said Hirano. The 33-year-old righty would relish the opportunity to square off against new Angels star Shohei Ohtani in the batter’s box, and the D-backs and Halos do have four interleague games. The Kyodo report notes that Hirano has faced Ohtani 15 times in Japan, allowing only an infield single.

A few more notes out of the West…

Padres GM A.J. Preller tells Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune and Baseball America that he’d had his eye on right-hander Bryan Mitchell for quite some time before finally acquiring him from the Yankees earlier this month. “He’s a guy who our scouting group had talked about a lot the last three years,” says Preller. “He has big fastball velocity, and he’s got a really good breaking pitch in there, too.” Preller goes on to state that the upside with Mitchell was more intriguing to the Friars than most of the free-agent market. Manager Andy Green, meanwhile, notes that the Padres feel they’ll be able to give him a more consistent role (presumably in the rotation), which could help the 26-year-old tap into his potential.
MLB.com’s Thomas Harding answers several offseason-focused questions in his latest Rockies Inbox column. In Harding’s estimation, Greg Holland “remains the favorite” to return as the Rockies’ closer in 2018, though he notes there are other options if the Rockies are ultimately outbid. A low-cost look at Adrian Gonzalez doesn’t seem likely with Ryan McMahon on the horizon, per Harding, who also notes that the Rockies remain in contact with Mark Reynolds about a potential reunion, which could further crowd the team’s list of first base options. Harding also opines that a trade of Trevor Story is unlikely, even with Brendan Rodgers looming in the minors, and he looks at the team’s pitching staff for the ’18 season as well.

Olney’s Latest: Hosmer, Padres, Machado, Jays, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | December 24, 2017 at 8:39am CDT

The Padres have aggressively pursued free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer this offseason, but with the team not ready to contend, the organization is split on whether it would be wise to sign him, Buster Olney of ESPN reports. As of the Winter Meetings, the Padres “were prepared to invest” roughly six years and $120MM in Hosmer, according to executives who spoke with Olney. That would easily surpass Wil Myers’ six-year, $83MM pact as the largest in Padres history, though it would be a questionable investment for a team that could take at least a couple more seasons to return to the playoffs. By then, Hosmer (currently 28) may be out of his prime.

More rumblings from Olney:

The Orioles reportedly don’t expect to trade Manny Machado, but they’re still more open than ever to moving him, writes Olney. As such, Olney doesn’t rule out a deal coming together, especially with Machado’s value being higher now than it will be over the summer. At the same time, it “seems a distinct possibility” the O’s will keep Machado through next season because of owner Peter Angelos’ reluctance to rebuild, Olney suggests. In that scenario, Machado would depart as a free agent, presumably after receiving and rejecting a qualifying offer, and the Orioles would only get draft compensation in return.
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has suggested on multiple occasions this winter that the club won’t trade third baseman Josh Donaldson prior to the season. Indeed, the Jays “fully intend” to start the year with Donaldson on their roster, per Olney. After missing the playoffs in 2017, Toronto is not ready to rebuild; rather, it’ll attempt to return to its 2015-16 form in the final season of Donaldson’s contract.
The Red Sox continue to have interest in the best hitter available in free agency, outfielder J.D. Martinez. But an agreement doesn’t seem imminent, as Olney relays they’re willing to wait out agent Scott Boras if necessary. There aren’t many clear suitors for Martinez outside of Boston, thanks in part to some teams trying to avoid the luxury-tax threshold and others rebuilding, which could make it difficult for Boras to drive up the price for Martinez.

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