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NL Notes: Goldschmidt, Reynolds, Painter, Suarez

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The Cardinals have been among the most disappointing teams in the league this season. Despite coming into the season as the shoo-in favorite for the NL Central crown, St. Louis sports just a 34-48 record and is in fifth place in the NL Central, 9.5 games out of a playoff spot. That rough first half to the 2023 campaign led president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to admit that “some changes” were on the horizon for the Cardinals late last month, even as he pushed back against the idea of the club entering a full rebuild.

The Athletic’s Katie Woo expanded upon those comments today, suggesting that the Cardinals are likely to make most of their position player group available in trade talks as they look to retool the team, though she highlights Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, and Jordan Walker as players who aren’t expected to be moved. Woo places the most emphasis on first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as a player who’s off-limits in trade as the deadline approaches.

The 35-year-old first baseman has posted another solid season for the Cardinals on the heels of his 2022 MVP campaign, slashing .289/.379/.498 in 359 plate appearances this season. A free agent after the 2024 campaign, speculation has swirled that the club might consider offers on Goldschmidt ahead of the trade deadline this year. Woo pushes back strongly against those rumors, arguing that a two-year extension this offseason is the “most likely scenario” regarding Goldschmidt. Such a deal would figure to take the veteran slugger through the end of his age-38 season in a Cardinals uniform.

More from around the National League…

  • The Pirates welcomed outfielder Bryan Reynolds back from the injured list today, per a club announcement. Pittsburgh’s star was on the shelf with a low back strain for just slightly over the minimum 10 days required, but the club struggled while Reynolds was away. Since Reynolds last appeared in a game on June 19, the club has gone 5-6 including key losses to division rivals in Chicago and Milwaukee. Reynolds, who’s slashing .279/.350/.473 in 294 plate appearances this season, will look to spark his club as they head into the All Star break with tough matchups against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. In recent days, outfielder Josh Palacios has filled in for Reynolds in the outfield alongside Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski.
  • Phillies managed Rob Thomson tells reporters, including Destiny Lugardo of Phillies Nation, that top prospect Andrew Painter is set to face live hitters on Tuesday for the first time since he was shut down during Spring Training with a UCL sprain. In even more encouraging news, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com adds that Painter is not only expected to pitch competitively at some point this summer, but could make his big league debut sometime this season. That’s surely a relief for Phillies fans, given Painter appeared poised to slot into the club’s Opening Day rotation prior to his injury during the spring as baseball’s consensus top pitching prospect.
  • Padres reliever Robert Suarez is making progress in his return to a big league mound, beginning a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League as noted by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Suarez has been on the 60-day IL all season dealing with an elbow injury, but was a key piece of the San Diego bullpen last season with a 2.27 ERA in 47 2/3 innings of work. Sanders adds that Suarez is expected back sometime after the All Star break. Upon his return, Suarez figures to bolster a bullpen that ranks bottom ten in the majors with a 4.26 FIP.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2023 All-Star Game this evening. This year’s All-Star Game will take place at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park on July 11. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

American League

National League

* Currently on injured list with sprained toe

Packy Naughton Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Cardinals left-hander Packy Naughton underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left elbow, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, but his ulnar collateral ligament did not require repair.

It was reported last week that Naughton would require season-ending surgery of some kind, though the exact nature of the procedure wasn’t known. The fact that the lefty’s UCL didn’t need any work is surely a silver lining in this challenging process.

Despite that small bit of good news, Naughton is likely still looking at a long road back to the mound, as flexor tendon surgery can also lead to extended absences. For instance, Matthew Boyd required the procedure in late September of 2021 and he got back to the big leagues in early September of 2022, missing almost a year. Tarik Skubal went under the knife in August of last year and is currently on a rehab assignment more than 10 months later. Each person and injury is different but it seems likely that Naughton will miss part of the 2024 campaign, in addition to missing the remainder of 2023.

Last year was his first with St. Louis and he posted a 4.78 ERA in 32 innings, but with strong peripherals. He struck out 22% of opponents while walking just 5% and getting grounders on 49.5% of balls in play. He started 2023 with five scoreless innings before landing on the injured list and that will now be the totality of his work for the year. He’s already on the 60-day injured list and will stay there for the rest of the year, though he’ll need to be added back to the roster in the offseason.

Turning to another injured Cardinal, Tyler O’Neill is back to baseball activity, per Jones. The outfielder is hoping to be heading out on a rehab assignment next week. He’s been on the shelf since May 5 due to a lower back strain.

The return of O’Neill will make for an interesting storyline with just over a month to go until the August 1 trade deadline. The Cardinals have had a disappointing season so far and are currently 33-45, placing them eight games back of the Reds in the National League Central and even further out in the Wild Card race. Though a hot streak in the next few weeks could get them right back into the mix, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that they may have to make some tough decisions this summer.

O’Neill will be returning to a crowded outfield picture. Tommy Edman started the year at shortstop but a resurgent Paul DeJong has bumped him to center field, where he has carried himself well. Through 189 1/3 innings in center so far this year, he has two Outs Above Average and a grade of 1.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating, while Defensive Runs Saved considers him exactly league average. His .238/.308/.403 batting line on the year is slightly below par, translating to a wRC+ of 96, but he’s still plenty valuable due to his defense, versatility and baserunning.

Similarly, the ascendance of Nolan Gorman at second base has often pushed Brendan Donovan into left field this year. Donovan has been producing roughly league average defense while hitting .269/.362/.384 for a wRC+ of 111. Then there’s Lars Nootbaar, who’s hitting .262/.368/.378 for a wRC+ of 111 while playing the corners. Rookie Jordan Walker is hitting .303/.369/.472 for a wRC+ of 135, slotting in as the designated hitter regularly but also taking a corner outfield spot at times. Dylan Carlson is also in the mix, hitting .248/.327/.404 for a wRC+ of 105. Alec Burleson and Óscar Mercado are also on the roster but neither has been able to get much playing time of late.

Even without O’Neill, the club is juggling plenty of different options and it won’t clear up any time soon as all of those players are still under control for 2024. The club has a $12.5MM option for DeJong’s services in 2024, with a $2MM buyout, that once seemed sure to be bought out but he might be playing his way into that getting picked up. He’s still providing strong shortstop defense while hitting .234/.297/.467 for a 109 wRC+. Even if DeJong isn’t there next year, shortstop prospect Masyn Winn is in Triple-A and will need a major league audition soon.

O’Neill can be retained for 2024 as well, though that would be his final arbitration year before qualifying for free agency. That perhaps makes him the most logical trade candidate of the bunch. Given the overcrowded roster in St. Louis and the fact that he and manager Oli Marmol got in a public argument earlier this year, perhaps O’Neill will be reading his name in trade rumors in the next few weeks.

He’s making $4.95MM this year and would be in line for a raise next year. It would likely be a modest bump given his missed time and the fact that he’s hit just .228/.283/.337 on the season so far, 73 wRC+. Nonetheless, he’d be an intriguing buy-low candidate for other clubs. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and slashed .286/.352/.560 for a 144 wRC+. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well in the outfield, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs. His production has dipped in the past couple of seasons while dealing with injuries, but there should still be some trade value there.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Trade for Infielders, Indecisive NL Central Teams and Aaron Judge’s Toe

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The Angels acquired Eduardo Escobar from the Mets and Mike Moustakas from the Rockies (1:25)
  • The Pirates and Cubs and Cardinals are thinking about their respective trade deadline approaches (7:20)
  • The Yankees’ hopes are hanging on Aaron Judge’s toe (16:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • How do you think the Red Sox will approach the deadline? Will they try to toe the line like last season (which did not work)? (18:50)
  • I would like to know what you think the Padres are going to do? They have numerous holes in that lineup, they are selling out game after game at home? You think major trades forthcoming? Or what? (22:40)
  • What do you think are the chances that the Braves trade Vaughn Grissom at the deadline? What caliber of player do you believe a package built around Grissom would bring in? (25:35)

Check out our past episodes!

Mozeliak: “Some Changes” Coming For Cardinals, But Not A Rebuild

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Only four teams have a lower winning percentage than the Cardinals’ .413 mark, as the Cards’ struggles have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season.  With a 31-44 record, time is running out for St. Louis to make a push towards a playoff spot — the club is 11 games out of a National League wild card berth, and four games behind the Pirates just to reach fourth place in the NL Central.

Barring a major surge, it’s looking like the Cardinals will post their second losing record of the last 24 seasons.  This remarkable run of consistency seems to be fueling John Mozeliak’s approach to the upcoming trade deadline, as the president of baseball operations ruled out the idea that the Cardinals would pursue a full rebuild.

“I would hope the Cardinals are not allowed to rebuild,” Mozeliak told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), in reference to the “pressure” St. Louis fans put on the team to remain perpetual contenders.  This is the only scenario that Mozeliak seems to have ruled out in regards to the trade deadline, since “as we sit here on the 23rd of June, we still don’t know exactly which path we’ll walk.  From a front office standpoint, we have to start preparing.”

The likeliest scenario would seem to be looking for “some deals made that … maybe could help now, but also could help in the future, or that maybe could be more of a reshuffling,” the PBO said.  Jones feels the Cardinals will take this route whether they can get back into the race or not, as a nod to the unsettled nature of the club’s pitching staff.  Adam Wainwright is retiring after the season, both Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery will be free agents, and Steven Matz’s rotation future is far from guaranteed given his ongoing struggles, so it makes sense that the Cardinals will be looking to obtain some controllable pitching.  St. Louis already made a trade in this mold last summer, obtaining Montgomery from the Yankees in exchange for Harrison Bader.

A similar pitching-for-position player swap would make sense on paper, as the Cardinals again have a seeming glut of players in need of regular at-bats.  That said, St. Louis isn’t going to be moving any core pieces (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado) or any of their true blue-chip young players (such as Jordan Walker) since the team is looking to reload for 2024, not rebuild.  It can be safely assumed that the likes of Tommy Edman, Willson Contreras, or Lars Nootbaar are also staying put, but it remains to be seen if any of the other position players have enough value to bring back a noteworthy arm on the trade market.

Flaherty and/or Montgomery could also be trade chips, if the Cardinals did opt to punt on 2023 and look to move some pending free agents.  As noted, it doesn’t seem like the Cards will fall into a strict buyer or seller mode, which Mozeliak cited as two of the other routes for the team heading into the deadline.  The other option to “hold pat, do nothing” doesn’t appear to be too likely, since Mozeliak said bluntly that “we know we’re not where we want to be, and we know we have to make some changes.”

George Frazier Passes Away

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Former major league player and analyst George Frazier has passed away, according to an announcement from the Rockies. He was 68.

After playing at the University of Oklahoma, Frazier entered pro ball as a ninth-round pick of the Brewers in the 1976 draft. While still in the minor leagues, he was traded to the Cardinals in a swap that sent catcher Buck Martinez to Milwaukee. Frazier made his MLB debut with St. Louis in May 1978, eventually appearing in 14 games as a rookie. He bounced on and off the active roster for the next two seasons.

Midway through the ’81 campaign, the Cards dealt Frazier to the Yankees. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings to help the Yanks past the A’s in that year’s AL Championship Series. He was charged with a trio of losses in their World Series defeat at the hands of the Dodgers, though, allowing seven runs in 3 2/3 frames over three outings.

Frazier put that rocky World Series showing behind him to establish himself as a key reliever by the following season. He surpassed 100 innings with a sub-3.50 ERA in each of the next two years. Over the 1983-84 offseason, New York dealt him to the Indians alongside outfielder Otis Nixon for All-Star infielder Toby Harrah. Frazier didn’t spend much time in Cleveland. Before the ’84 deadline, the Indians moved him to the Cubs with Rick Sutcliffe (who’d go on to win the NL Cy Young award that year) and Ron Hassey in a blockbuster that netted Cleveland Joe Carter and Mel Hall.

The right-handed Frazier tossed 63 2/3 innings for Chicago down the stretch to help them to the NLCS. He struggled over the next couple seasons but intrigued the Twins enough that they acquired him at the 1986 trade deadline. Frazier spent a season and a half in Minnesota to wrap up his MLB playing career. The ’87 Twins went on to win the World Series; Frazier’s last MLB outing was a two-inning scoreless appearance against the Cardinals in that year’s Fall Classic.

After his playing career came to a close, Frazier embarked on a lengthy run as a broadcaster. He worked as a color analyst for the Twins for a time before joining the Rockies’ booth for the 1998 season. He’d spend nearly two decades in Colorado, calling games there through 2015.

Frazier spent upwards of four decades in the game. As a player, he pitched in 415 big league contests. He posted a career 4.20 ERA through 675 2/3 innings, striking out 449 hitters. He was credited with 35 wins, finished 193 games and picked up 29 saves. He added six playoff games with three different franchises and won a World Series to close his career.

MLBTR joins others around the game in sending condolences to Frazier’s family, friends, former teammates and loved ones.

Packy Naughton To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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Cardinals left-hander Packy Naughton will undergo season-ending surgery on June 26th, with Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Joe Trezza of MLB.com relaying word from manager Oli Marmol.

The specific details of Naughton’s surgery aren’t publicly known and it’s possible those details won’t be fully available until the procedure actually begins, but it was reported last week that Tommy John was on the table. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat adds that Naughton was visiting Dr. Keith Meister, who has performed some internal brace procedures, the TJS alternative that could also be an option.

Either way, it seems likely that Naughton is set to miss significant time. Even in the case of the internal brace procedure, a recovery period of roughly a year is required, which would likely wipe out the first half of Naughton’s 2024 season. The full Tommy John surgery, on the other hand, usually pushes into the range of 14 to 18 months, which could put his entire 2024 season in jeopardy.

That’s surely an extremely frustrating development for both Naughton and the Cards. The southpaw had tossed 32 innings last year with a 4.78 ERA but strong peripherals. He struck out 22% of opponents while walking just 5% and getting grounders at a 49.5% clip. His ERA might have been inflated by a .364 batting average on balls in play, leading to kinder marks from other metrics such as a 3.14 FIP and 3.26 SIERA.

He was looking to build off that platform here in 2023 but landed on the injured list after just four appearances due to a left forearm strain. He seemed on track to return when he began a rehab assignment a week ago but was still experiencing pain, leading to further examination and today’s news about the necessary surgery. That means that 2023 will be an almost entirely lost season with 2024 hanging in the balance as well.

Naughton is already on the 60-day injured list and will stay there for the rest of the season. However, there’s no injured list in the offseason so he will have to be added back to the roster at that point.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Yarbrough, Pirates

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The Cardinals could activate outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the injured list as soon as tomorrow, according to John Denton of MLB.com. Nootbaar, who has been on the IL since the beginning of the month with a lower back contusion, has slashed .266/.380/.390 in 184 plate appearances for St. Louis this season, good for a 118 wRC+.

As discussed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Nootbaar’s return will create something of a conundrum for Cardinals manager Oli Marmol, who has moved Tommy Edman from shortstop to the outfield in recent weeks, a change the switch-hitter has taken well to. Goold suggests that the return of Nootbaar, who can play quality defense in all three outfield spots, would give Marmol the option to shift Edman back to the infield, with Nootbaar taking over center and Nolan Gorman spending most days at DH. Otherwise, Marmol could leave Edman in the center and use Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson in the corners while allowing Jordan Walker, who has struggled to adjust to outfield work after spending most of his minor league career on the infield dirt, to DH.

Whatever defensive alignment the Cardinals end up with, Nootbaar’s return figures to help boost the club as it struggles to stay relevant in the NL Central. Despite an abysmal 29-43 record leaving them 8.5 games back in the NL Central, St. Louis still has a 12.1% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs, thanks to their weak competition in the division.

More from around the Central divisions…

  • Royals left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is set to begin a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League tomorrow, per a club announcement. That’s fantastic news for not only fans in Kansas City, but all around baseball considering the circumstances of Yarbrough’s injury. The lefty was placed on the injured list in early May with multiple head fractures after being struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of Oakland slugger Ryan Noda. Prior to his injury, Yarbrough had struggled badly across ten appearances with the Royals, posting a 6.15 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work.
  • Following today’s news that the Pirates are poised to promote 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis to the majors tomorrow, manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos, that the club’s current catching tandem of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay would remain on the roster. With Pittsburgh planning to carry three catchers as Davis breaks into the majors, it’s worth wondering how the club plans to use Davis. While the youngster was drafted and has been used primarily as a catcher, he’s also started 15 games in right field over the past two seasons while mixing in starts at DH. Of course, the DH slot in Pittsburgh is largely occupied by Andrew McCutchen, leaving right field as Davis’s most likely home on days where Hedges or Delay start behind the plate. Connor Joe and Josh Palacios are currently manning right for the Pirates in a timeshare.

Cardinals Acquire Richie Palacios From Guardians

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The Cardinals announced that they have acquired infielder/outfielder Richie Palacios from the Guardians in exchange for cash considerations. Palacios, who was designated for assignment by the Guards on the weekend, has been optioned to Triple-A Memphis. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Palacios, 26, was originally selected by Cleveland in the third round of the 2018 draft. He’s generally been considered a bat-first utility player and hit his way up the minor league ladder. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

He spent last year as a frequently-optioned depth piece, getting into 54 major league contests. But in his 123 plate appearances, he hit just .232/.293/.286 for a wRC+ of 65. He continued his strong offensive work whenever in the minors, finishing the year with a line of .279/.371/.458 in Triple-A and a 121 wRC+. However, this year, he’s slumped badly while sticking in the minors. He currently sports a line of .217/.351/.318 through 269 Triple-A plate appearances on the year.

Palacios has been bounced around the field a bit in his career to get his bat into lineups. He’s played second base and left field in the majors and also the other outfield positions in the minors. But since his bat is considered his best trait, his struggles this year got him bounced from the Guards to the Cards. The Cardinals have a penchant for developing versatile position players and will now try to get the most out of Palacios. He still has options and less than a year of service time, allowing him to serve as an optionable and versatile depth piece for the foreseeable future.

As for O’Neill, he was placed on the injured list in early May due to a lower back strain. There’s been nothing to indicate he’s particularly close to a return since he’s yet to start a rehab assignment that would be required before rejoining the big league club. That makes this transaction a mere formality as the 60-day count goes from his initial IL placement, not today’s transfer. He’ll be eligible to be reinstated in early July if he makes significant progress in the next two weeks.

Central Notes: Contreras, Naughton, Buxton

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The Pirates recently moved right-hander Roansy Contreras to the bullpen, but he’s hoping to follow in the footsteps of his teammate Mitch Keller and return to the rotation stronger than ever. “I want to find a point where I feel comfortable again,” Contreras said, with major league coach Stephen Morales translating to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I’m going to do my best out of the bullpen, but I feel like I belong in the starting rotation. I’m going to do my best to get back to it.”

Keller was a second-round pick and top 100 prospect but struggled in his first few seasons in the majors, having a 6.02 ERA by the end of 2021. Last year, he had a 6.61 ERA in the middle of May when he was moved to the bullpen. He made just a couple of relief appearances before being put back in the rotation and eventually posted a 3.22 ERA as a starter the rest of the way. He now has a 3.41 ERA for the Bucs here in 2023.

Contreras was also a top 100 guy on his way up through the minors and seemed to solidify himself last year when he posted a 3.79 ERA over 95 innings. However, he’s taken a step back here in 2023 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 starts and a couple of relief appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, considering his .328 batting average on balls in play and 61.3% strand rate, but his 17.2% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate are both worse than last year’s marks of 21.1% and 9.6%.

The Pirates are barely above .500 at 34-32 but that’s enough for first place in the National League Central at the moment. Their current rotation consists of Keller, Rich Hill, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo and the recently-recalled Osvaldo Bido. If Contreras could turn things around, it would be a huge help for their postseason push, especially with other options like Vince Velasquez, Mike Burrows and JT Brubaker out for the year. There would also be long-term benefits to the Bucs, since Contreras isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Some other notes from the Central divisions…

  • Cardinals left-hander Packy Naughton has been on the injured list for most of the season, making just four appearances in early April before a left forearm strain put him on the shelf. He recently began a rehab assignment but was still experiencing pain. Now he’s traveling to Texas to get a second opinion and it seems season-ending surgery is on the table, per John Denton of MLB.com. Denton relays that Tommy John surgery could still be avoided but it’s nonetheless an ominous development for Naughton and the Cards that it’s being considered, particularly at this time of year. Given the typical recovery period of 14 to 18 months, Tommy John surgery would not only wipe out the rest of 2023 for Naughton but also put his 2024 in jeopardy. In 59 2/3 career innings, he has a 4.98 ERA.
  • The Twins reinstated Byron Buxton from the injured list today, optioning outfielder Trevor Larnach in a corresponding move. Buxton has long been one of the most talented athletes in the sport but has struggled to stay healthy. He managed to play 140 games in 2017 but hasn’t topped 92 contests in any subsequent season. The Twins have kept him exclusively in the designated hitter slot this year in an attempt to reduce the chance of injury. That plan hit a snag a couple weeks ago when Buxton took a pitch from Tanner Bibee in the ribs. He landed on the IL due to a contusion but is now back after a brief absence. He’s hitting .220/.325/.445 so far this year for a 114 wRC+, stealing six bases in 50 games.
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