Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
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The 2017 season was borderline disastrous for the Rangers, who fell from a 95-67 record in 2016 to a 78-84 mark and a third place finish in the division. Texas dramatically outperformed its projected record in that AL West-winning ’16 campaign, so some regression was expected, but the team fell further than most would’ve figured and now faces some heavy offseason lifting.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $73MM through 2022 (can opt out of remaining four years, $58MM after 2018 season)
- Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH: $62MM through 2020
- Rougned Odor, 2B: $48.5MM through 2022
- Cole Hamels, LHP: $28.5MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout of $20MM option for 2019)
- Adrian Beltre, 3B: $18MM through 2018
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
- A.J. Griffin (5.034) – $3.0MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.161) – $1.1MM
- Keone Kela (2.168) – $1.2MM
- Nick Martinez (2.149) – $2.0MM
- Ryan Rua (2.126) – $900K
- Non-tender candidates: Griffin, Martinez
Option Decisions
- Mike Napoli, 1B: $11MM club option with $2.5MM buyout; team has reportedly informed Napoli the option will be declined
- Martin Perez, LHP: $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
- Tony Barnette, RHP: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Free Agents
- Carlos Gomez, Andrew Cashner, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Grilli
[Texas Rangers Depth Chart | Texas Rangers Payroll Outlook]
More than half of the Rangers’ Opening Day roster struggled through some form of injury or unforeseen downturn in performance in 2017. Yu Darvish posted solid but unspectacular numbers for much of the first half, while Cole Hamels was sidelined more than two months with an oblique issue (to say nothing of his curiously evaporating strikeout rate). Jonathan Lucroy‘s power was nowhere to be found, and Rougned Odor batted .204 with a ghastly .252 OBP in the first season of a six-year contract extension that now looks questionable. The Rangers also lost Adrian Beltre and Carlos Gomez for prolonged stretches due to injury. The bullpen was an unmitigated disaster.
And yet, the Rangers clung to hope in the Wild Card race for much of the season, riding a breakout season from Elvis Andrus, a 41-homer campaign for Joey Gallo and quality results from Andrew Cashner for much of the season.
The Rangers’ foundation began showing some cracks — a particularly troubling development in Arlington considering the fact that the cross-state-rival Astros’ own young core elevated its game to a new level. The simultaneous nature of the Rangers’ decline and the Astros’ ascension has put Texas behind the eight ball as it looks to get back into contention in 2018 and beyond. While there have been many Rangers fans suggesting that the team needs to retool, if not all-out rebuild, GM Jon Daniels has been blunt in stating that his team is not rebuilding. So then, where do the Rangers turn to right the ship?
The most pressing need is on the pitching staff — specifically in the rotation. Hamels will return to lead the 2018 rotation but has just one guaranteed year remaining on his deal and looked more like a back-of-the-rotation arm than his usual self in 2017. His 6.4 K/9 rate was easily a career low, and his 9.7 percent swinging-strike rate was two points lower than his previous career-worst mark. He’ll be joined by Martin Perez, whose $6MM club option is a no-brainer even if his production looked like that of a fifth starter (4.82 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 47.3 percent ground-ball rate in 185 innings).
Beyond that pair, the Rangers’ options are … uninspiring, to say the least. Cashner and trade acquisition Miguel Gonzalez are free agents, leaving the Rangers with Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin, Clayton Blackburn and prospect Yohander Mendez as 2018 options. (Former first-round pick Chi Chi Gonzalez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and may not be ready early in the season.) If the Rangers have any hope of contending, they’ll need to add at least one more established arm to the mix, and quite possibly two.
A pursuit of a Darvish reunion, to some extent, could conceivably be explored. The decision to trade him was a reluctant one from Daniels and his staff, and Hamels’ potential departure after the 2018 season leaves the team with virtually no certainty in the rotation after next year. However, the Rangers didn’t extend him when they had the chance, and the team’s financial outlook is ungainly enough that it seems like a genuine long shot that Darvish will be re-signed.
Texas has a significant amount of money on the books through 2020 thanks largely to Shin-Soo Choo’s albatross deal, and Daniels has suggested that the payroll will step back a bit from this past year’s Opening Day mark of $165MM — perhaps in the $155MM range, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. They’ll be off the hook for some of Prince Fielder‘s salary after reaching an agreement with the insurers of his contract, and the club currently projects to about a $118MM payroll including Fielder and some non-tender/trade candidates. A backloaded Darvish deal shouldn’t be entirely written off as a possibility, but it’s tough to align Daniels’ stated desire to scale back payroll with a five- or six-year free-agent deal for Darvish that could check in with an annual value in the $23-26MM range.
The Rangers will also be prominently linked to Japanese star Shohei Otani, though they’ll face competition from 29 other teams if and when he’s posted. Daniels acknowledged that the Rangers would be one of many in the mix if Otani becomes available this winter — a reality that looks less likely with the new revelation that the posting system agreement between MLB and NPB has expired — but reports have connected Texas to the young right-hander/slugger much more prominently over the summer. Speculating on any sort of “favorite”to land Otani seems futile right now, especially since his earning power is capped by MLB’s international signing guidelines, but Texas will be involved.
If not Darvish or Otani, the Rangers will have the money to invest elsewhere. Signing a big-ticket arm such as Jake Arrieta will present the same long-term payroll complications as Darvish. Second-tier names like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will be available but will very likely come with draft compensation attached, as each is a strong qualifying offer candidate. Texas could also look at more affordable overseas options, with Miles Mikolas and Hideaki Wakui each eyeing MLB jobs after strong showings in Japan. Mikolas, in particular, has been loosely linked to Texas (where he last pitched before going to the NPB).
It’s a similar, albeit not quite as grave situation in the bullpen. Lefties Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman will be back in 2018, as will righties Keone Kela and Matt Bush (though Bush will be coming off shoulder surgery and has been suggested as a potential rotation candidate). Hard-throwing Jose Leclerc is an option after averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in 45 2/3 frames this year, but he also averaged a jaw-dropping 7.9 walks per nine. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Ricardo Rodriguez and Nick Gardewine are all on the 40-man as well, but none impressed much as a big league reliever.
With no clear ninth-inning solution, Texas could conceivably take a run at a top-tier closer like Wade Davis or Greg Holland. But, again, with numerous needs up and down the roster — we’re not even to the position players yet — it seems likelier that Daniels & Co. will pursue quality assets in the second and third tier of the market. Brandon Morrow, Addison Reed and Mike Minor will probably have the most buzz on the second tier, while other options coming off strong seasons include Pat Neshek, Anthony Swarzak and old friend Tommy Hunter.
Turning to the lineup, the Rangers seem likely to let Robinson Chirinos shoulder the bulk of the load behind the dish. If they wish to push him back into a backup role, Welington Castillo and Alex Avila are options to serve as the primary receiver in Arlington next year. Both should command multi-year deals. Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley are among the veteran backups if Chirinos is the first choice.
Most, if not all of the infield is set. Andrus performed so well in 2017 that the notion of him opting out of his contract after the 2018 season is now perfectly plausible — if not likely. Future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre will be back at the hot corner, and for better or worse, second base will go to Odor as he looks to rebound from that aforementioned .252 OBP. First base looks likely to go to Joey Gallo, though the team could also elect to play Gallo in an outfield corner or at DH if the decision is made to pursue a free-agent first baseman. Eric Hosmer is almost certainly going to be out of the Rangers’ comfort zone, but Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana and Yonder Alonso are all conceivable possibilities on the market.
In the outfield, there’s less certainty. Willie Calhoun, the centerpiece from the Darvish trade with the Dodgers, could split his time between left field and DH if the Rangers want to go with an intriguing, bat-first option. He lacks experience, but Calhoun obliterated upper minors pitching in 2017 and is a consensus top 100 prospect. Otherwise, the Rangers have Nomar Mazara, Delino Deshields and Choo as options in the outfield (and, in Choo’s case, at designated hitter).
That’s not a very inspiring unit, unless Mazara bounces back and makes good on his longtime elite prospect status. Given that he won’t turn 23 until April and nonetheless has two full big league years under his belt, that shouldn’t come as a shock if it happens. But, that’s a lot to bank on, and the Rangers could be well served by at least adding a veteran outfielder that can handle center field or a corner. A reunion with Carlos Gomez certainly makes sense, with Jon Jay and Jarrod Dyson also representing viable free-agent alternatives.
The elephant in the room for the Rangers is Jurickson Profar. The former No. 1 overall prospect missed two seasons with shoulder injuries and was reportedly unhappy that he wasn’t traded prior to the non-waiver deadline. Texas simply doesn’t have at-bats to give him, having inked Andrus and Odor to long-term commitments at the middle infield positions. Profar didn’t hit much in a limited opportunity as a utilityman, but he did hit .287/.383/.428 in 383 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
That the Rangers elected not to give Profar a September call-up was notable for two reasons. First and foremost, it served as an even stronger indicator that his time with the organization is quite likely running out. A second, less obvious benefit to casual onlookers is that it prevented Profar from reaching four full years of MLB service time. Because he stayed in the minors, the Rangers will be able to market three years of Profar’s arbitration eligibility rather than two when shopping him this winter. Any team with regular middle-infield bats could plausibly be considered a suitor. The Padres, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays and Brewers all strike me as speculative landing spots.
Profar’s trade value will be a fraction of what it was at its apex, though one can hardly fault the Rangers for not moving him when he was the game’s top-rated prospect. The team got extremely unlucky when it came to Profar’s health, but that doesn’t mean it can’t salvage some decent value here. While Profar won’t command a massive return, the Rangers could get a similar reclamation project for the rotation or possibly an MLB-caliber bullpen arm, among other lesser pieces.
If a payroll in the $155MM range is indeed the target, the Rangers may only have $35-40MM worth of open payroll capacity in 2018, depending on non-tender and trade scenarios. While that’s certainly enough space to fill multiple needs, it’s a fairly modest amount for a club that needs multiple starters, at least one reliever (likely more) and some outfield and/or first base help. Texas can always try to dump some of the remaining three years and $62MM of Choo’s contract on another American League club with DH at-bats open (e.g. the White Sox), but doing so would require paying down some of the commitment and providing prospect value to the acquiring team. Alternatively, they could try to facilitate some kind of bad contract exchange, taking on a similarly undesirable contract that at least filled a team need (e.g. Ian Kennedy).
Regardless of which route the Rangers actually take, they’ll need to add several pieces with a relatively limited cache of resources if the team truly does not intend to embark on any kind of significant rebuild this offseason. With a stacked Astros roster looming over the AL West, the Rangers face an uphill battle in returning to contention for a division title. But, it’s also difficult to fault any AL team for eschewing a full rebuild when only five American League clubs finished with a .500 record this season..
Rangers To Hire Don Wakamatsu As Bench Coach
The Rangers are slated to hire Don Wakamatsu to become their bench coach, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). He’ll join a reshuffled staff under manager Jeff Banister, who is looking to bounce back from his first losing season since taking over the Rangers dugout in 2015.
Wakamatsu, 54, has previously served as the bench coach in Texas, among his many other stops as a big league coach. He also skippered the Mariners in the 2009 and 2010 seasons and has been noted as a managerial candidate on several occasions since. Most recently, Wakamatsu was the bench coach for the Royals.
With the addition, the team will bump last year’s bench coach, Steve Buechele, to the first base coaching job. He had been the Rangers’ bench coach for each of the past three seasons.
West Notes: Healy, Maxwell, Rangers
A rousing World Series hasn’t come without its controversies. On the field, questions have arisen about the baseballs themselves, as SI.com’s Tom Verducci discusses. The balls being used for the series are slicker than regular season ball, some players and coaches say, with some even feeling there have been differences through the postseason. This follows on a long-running debate over “juiced” balls in the regular season. It’ll be interesting to see whether and how the league addresses the subject over the winter.
Here are some notes from out west:
- The Athletics may be putting out trade feelers on young power hitter Ryon Healy, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. As she notes, he mostly fits in a DH capacity on the current roster, but the team may prefer to bump Khris Davis into that slot. The 25-year-old Healy isn’t considered much of a defender, and only posted a .302 OBP last year, but has already blasted 38 home runs in 888 MLB plate appearances. Slusser suggests that the A’s might attempt to draw back some relief pitching in a hypothetical trade.
- Slusser also has the latest on Athletics catcher Bruce Maxwell. He was arrested for “allegedly waving a gun at a food delivery person” in a troubling incident that Slusser details. It’s not yet clear how the matter will impact Maxwell’s status with the team, but it seems he will be referred to MLB’s Joint Treatment Program, as Slusser notes. Maxwell, 26, is expected to play a significant role for the A’s next year as part of the club’s youth movement, but it seems he’ll have to address some other matters before the spring.
- Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News takes a good look at the Rangers‘ possibilities in left field, a position in quite some flux for the team. It may be that it ends up featuring a “cast of characters,” as Grant puts it. Slugger Joey Gallo and speedster Delino DeShields could see time in left if they aren’t used as primary options elsewhere. And top prospect Willie Calhoun, the main piece acquired in the Yu Darvish deal, could run with the position but may first need to iron out his glovework at Triple-A. What’s most interesting here, perhaps, is that the range of options seemingly leaves the club with some flexibility as it enters the offseason.
Latest On Potential Jurickson Profar Trade
- Rangers infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar could draw offseason trade interest from the Reds, Padres and other teams, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News observes. The Reds scouted Profar “at length” when he was at Triple-A this season, per Grant, who notes that Padres general manager and ex-Rangers executive A.J. Preller is already familiar with the former top prospect. The switch-hitting Profar, 24, spent most of 2017 in the minors, where he hit .287/.383/.428 in 383 plate appearances. He has been far less successful across 718 career major league PAs, having batted .229/.309/.329. Thanks to his underwhelming performance with the Rangers and his out-of-options status, Profar looks like a strong trade candidate heading into the winter.
Rangers Notes: Cashner QO, Free Agent Targets
- MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan looks at some recent Rangers players currently slated to hit the open market. As he notes, veteran knuckler R.A. Dickey could conceivably be a consideration for a reunion, though it’s not clear that the team will suit Dickey’s geographical preferences. More intriguingly, perhaps, Sullivan adds that Miles Mikolas — who excelled in Japan after leaving Texas — has left the Rangers “highly intrigued.” Elsewhere, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News analyzes the team’s options at first base. Ronald Guzman could be an option alongside Joey Gallo, notes Grant, perhaps leaving the team interested in acquiring a part-time, right-handed-hitting option to join the mix.
- First, the Rangers will have to decide upon a qualifying offer for righty Andrew Cashner. Despite some prior indications that the team might issue one, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that’s not likely at this point. Similarly, says Heyman, the Reds are “leaning against” a QO for shortstop Zack Cozart — though the team is said to be willing to pursue a multi-year deal in free agency.
Matt Bush Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Rangers righty Matt Bush has undergone a procedure to his right shoulder, as MLB.com’s TR Sullivan was among those to report (Twitter links). Specifically, Dr. James Andrews performed an arthroscopic acromioclavicular (AC) join resection.
That’s not the best news, clearly, but the hope seems to be that it’ll put to rest a problem that had hobbled Bush in a somewhat disappointing 2017 season. The expectation is that he’ll be ready to participate fully in Spring Training, which is certainly fairly promising.
Bush, 31, had returned from a lengthy absence from professional baseball to debut with aplomb in 2016. But he couldn’t quite hold the same edge over a full season in 2017, when he worked to a 3.78 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 52 1/3 frames.
While Bush carried much the same blistering velocity (around 98 mph) and swinging-strike rate (12-13%) that he did last year, he wasn’t as successful at managing contact. Opposing hitters boasted a much stronger collective batting average on balls in play (.329 vs. .245) and home run rate (1.20 per nine vs. 0.58).
Still, there’s plenty of reason to think that Bush can keep providing value if he’s able to get back to full health. Given that he played in the field early on and went through an extended mid-career layoff, Bush has little in the way of mileage on his arm.
Elected Free Agency: Siegrist, Edgin, Hutchison, Locke, Bolsinger, Van Slyke, Maness
The indispensable Matt Eddy of Baseball America provides an overview of a vast number of players electing free agency following the 2017 season in his latest Minor Transactions roundup. Eddy largely focuses on players with big league service time (significant service time, in some cases) that were outrighted off the roster that are now hitting the open market for the first time. (Players with three-plus years of service that are not on the 40-man roster at season’s end can elect free agency, as can any player that has been outrighted on multiple occasions in his career.)
While the vast majority of these players seem likely to sign minor league pacts this winter — they did, after all, go unclaimed by 29 other teams on waivers — a number of them are still intriguing with recent success in their past and/or multiple years of arbitration eligibility remaining. Eddy’s rundown also contains a number of re-signed minor leaguers and released minor leaguers without big league experience as well as Arizona Fall League assignments on a per-team basis, so it’s well worth a full look.
We’ve updated our list of 2017-18 MLB free agents accordingly, and here are some of the new names now checking in on the list…
Depth options in the rotation
Josh Collmenter, Asher Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison, Jeff Locke, Kyle Kendrick, Mike Bolsinger, Christian Bergman, David Holmberg
Collmenter is just two seasons removed from being the D-backs Opening Day starter but hasn’t had much success of late. Hutchison had solid Triple-A numbers and once looked like a long-term rotation piece in Toronto before Tommy John surgery. He can be controlled for another three seasons in arbitration. Locke was injured for most of an ugly first (and likely only) season in Miami, and Kendrick made just two starts for the Red Sox.
Wojciechowski (6.50 ERA in 62 1/3 innings with the Reds), Bolsinger (6.31 ERA in 41 1/3 innings with the Jays), Bergman (5.00 ERA in 54 innings with the Mariners) and Holmberg (4.68 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with the White Sox) all soaked up innings for injury-plagued pitching staffs. Bolsinger has had the most MLB experience of the bunch.
Corner Bats
Scott Van Slyke, Tyler Moore, Cody Asche, Conor Gillaspie, Jaff Decker
Van Slyke has long been a solid bat against left-handed pitching but appeared in just 29 games with the Dodgers and didn’t hit well with their Triple-A affiliate or with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate. (He was included in the Tony Cingrani trade to balance out the financial side of the deal.) Moore, also a right-handed bat, showed power but struggled to get on base.
Once one of the Phillies’ top prospects, Asche hit well in Triple-A Charlotte but flopped in a brief stint with the ChiSox. Gillaspie was unable to replicate his 2016 rebound with the Giants, while Decker showed some on-base skills in the Majors and minors but didn’t hit much overall. (He can play center but hasn’t graded well there in the Majors.)
Utility Infielders
Ruben Tejada, Phil Gosselin, Dusty Coleman, Chase d’Arnaud
Each of the four can play all over the diamond, but none provided offensive value in 2017. Tejada has the most big league experience but hasn’t received much playing time since 2015 (and hasn’t performed well when he has gotten opportunities). Gosselin has a solid defensive reputation but a light bat through 551 MLB PAs. Coleman hit four homers in 71 PAs in his MLB debut this year but logged a .268 OBP. d’Arnaud saw his fair share of 2016 action with the Braves but has never produced much at the plate.
Bullpen options
Kevin Siegrist (L), Josh Edgin (L), Seth Maness, Kevin Quackenbush
Siegrist and Edgin are intriguing names for clubs in need of left-handed bullpen help. Both have recent success on their track records, though Edgin wasn’t as sharp in 2017 as he was prior to 2015 Tommy John surgery. Siegrist’s control eroded in 2017 as he missed time due to a back/spinal injury and tendinitis in his left forearm, but he was one of the Cardinals’ top setup options in both 2015 and 2016. Both lefties are controllable through 2019.
Maness drew headlines for returning from a torn UCL in roughly seven months thanks to an experimental new “primary repair” procedure, but while he stayed healthy in 2017, the results weren’t great in the Majors and especially not in Triple-A (6.13 ERA in 47 innings). Quackenbush was excellent as a rookie in 2014 and solid in 2015-16 before imploding in 2017 (7.86 ERA in 26 1/3 innings). He was better but not great in Triple-A (3.90 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9). Maness could be controlled through 2019, while Quackenbush would have three more years of control.
Jon Daniels Uninterested In Leaving Rangers
- Rangers general manager Jon Daniels will enter a contract year in 2018, but he told Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram and other reporters on Friday that he has “no desire to go anywhere.” Daniels’ hope is to land an extension, though neither he nor members of the Rangers’ ownership group commented on whether a new deal is in the works. The 40-year-old has been in his post since October 2005, making him the second-longest tenured GM in the game behind the Yankees’ Brian Cashman, and has helped construct five playoff teams and two pennant winners (2010 and ’11). The 2017 season wasn’t a success for the Daniels-led Rangers, however, as they finished 78-84. Daniels is still optimistic, though, saying: “This was not a fun year, just the variety of things that we dealt with, but what it illuminated was getting back to the things that are fun. Being creative, finding new ways to compete, finding different competitive advantages, circling the wagons and building with our people.”
Daniels: Roster Will Be Built Around Beltre
- The Rangers dealt away veterans at the 2017 trade deadline, but still don’t appear interested in a full-blown sell-off. Most notably, the team held veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre, who is entering the final season of his contract. GM Jon Daniels says that the club “will be designed with Adrian as our third baseman,” as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to tweet. The Rangers’ head baseball decisionmaker suggested that Beltre and the organization have come to an understanding about the immediate direction, though he also noted that it’s at least theoretically possible the path could change. Beltre again battled through health problems to post an outstanding .312/.383/.532 slash. While he’s owed a hefty $18MM, the contract would still hold quite a lot of appeal to other organizations given Beltre’s sustained excellence. Still, it seems the Rangers will be looking to build around him rather than making a deal, though it remains unclear what kind of capacity the team has for veteran acquisitions.
Darvish Defends Brocail, Holman
- Dodgers righty Yu Darvish reached out to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News with an unprompted message to praise Rangers pitching coach Doug Brocail and recently fired bullpen coach Brad Holman. As Grant notes, Darvish’s recent improvements and changed mechanics have led to criticism for his coaches with the Rangers. “…There should be no criticism of Doug Brocail or Brad Holman,” said Darvish. “They are both very good coaches without a doubt. They are also great people. I’m not the kind of person who lies, so please trust me when I say this.” Darvish goes on to explain some of the alterations that he’s made since changing teams and eventually comes back to the point that there’s “no major difference in coaching or philosophy” that has led to his rebound following his trade to Los Angeles.