Rangers Allowing Bush To Prepare For Possible Rotation Spot
- The Rangers will let right-hander Matt Bush spend the offseason preparing for a potential rotation spot in 2018, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Bush, who had shoulder surgery last month but is expected to be ready for Spring Training, turned in strong numbers as a reliever for the Rangers in each of the past two seasons. Overall, he’s worked to a 3.08 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 with 0.87 HR/9 in 114 innings. The Rangers won’t make a definitive decision on his role for another couple of months, however, Grant adds, which could indicate that Bush’s fate will be somewhat determined by the other additions GM Jon Daniels and his staff are (or aren’t) able to make this offseason.
Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen
In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish‘s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.
If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…
- Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
- The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
- The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
- Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
- Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals‘ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.
Jay Bruce Interested In Signing With Rangers, Astros
- Beaumont native Jay Bruce would like to sign with one of his home-state teams (the Astros or Rangers), NJ Advance Media’s Abbey Mastracco writes. A return to the Mets is also a possibility, though Bruce’s top priority is to play for a contender. Bruce isn’t a perfect fit on either the Houston or Texas rosters, though the Astros could use another left-handed bat and the DH spot is opening up with Carlos Beltran‘s likely departure. The Rangers could also have DH or right field at-bats open depending on where Shin-Soo Choo plays, or if the team wants to give top prospect Willie Calhoun a look. What doesn’t seem likely, however, is that either Texas club signs Bruce at his initial five-year, $80-$90MM asking price.
Grant: Rangers Should Shop Shin-Soo Choo
Outfielder/designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo is a “luxury” the Rangers can’t afford, opines the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant, who contends that the team should shop the 35-year-old in hopes of improving elsewhere. Choo has an onerous contract, though, as he’s owed $62MM through 2020, so the Rangers’ best hope might be flipping him for another team’s unappealing deal, Grant writes. With that in mind, Grant lists three right-handers signed through 2020 – the Tigers’ Jordan Zimmermann ($74MM remaining on his pact), the Royals’ Ian Kennedy ($49MM) and the Reds’ Homer Bailey ($49MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2020) – as players the starter-needy Rangers could potentially acquire in exchange for Choo. Notably, Choo spent the 2013 campaign in Cincinnati and thrived, which helped pave the way for him to sign a seven-year, $130MM pact with the Rangers in the ensuing offseason.
Latest On Shohei Otani
2:23pm: There’s a “tentative understanding” in place simply to extend the prior posting regime for another year, Sherman reports. The MLBPA has yet to weigh in on the subject, though, and there’s still not a final deal in place.
1:31pm: In the wake of Shohei Otani‘s decision to hire a MLBPA-certified player representative, it seems that there’ll be a renewed push to figure out a way to resolve the impasse that has threatened to derail his planned move to the majors. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s a sense that the move will help facilitate an agreement that all involved will approve.
Indeed, Otani’s reps at CAA are scheduled to “meet soon” with the player’s association to attempt to get on the same page in an effort to sort things out, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. That’s just the first step here, of course, as Otani and the MLBPA will still need to engage with Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball — the two entities that are primarily negotiating a new system governing inter-league player transfers.
The difficulties here are tied to two factors: first, MLB’s rules capping international bonuses on certain younger international free agents; and second, the expiration of the prior posting system. There was a time when Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, might have auctioned Otani’s negotiating rights for something approaching or even exceeding nine figures while Otani might have commanded a guarantee of as much or more. Under the just-expired transfer system, the Fighters would at least have stood to receive the maximum allowable $20MM fee. But that’s no longer how things work.
The transfer rules currently under contemplation would do away with the (up-to) $20MM flat-fee approach in favor of one that would allow the NPB team to earn a percentage of the bonus the posted player negotiates. If Otani was free to seek his market value, that wouldn’t likely pose a problem. But his earnings are now severely limited; while he is evidently at peace with that, his would-be former team is obviously not enamored of the possibility of losing its best player for what would be relative peanuts.
Under MLB’s current international rules, MLB clubs can’t go past their international spending pools (as supplemented via trade) to sign Otani. Those are even more limited than might be realized, though, due to teams’ preexisting commitments with young international players. (This was already known, of course, though the details remained fuzzy.)
According to a report from the Associated Press, only six teams even have enough uncommitted pool space to offer Otani seven figures. The Rangers ($3.535MM), Yankees ($3.25MM), and Twins ($3.245MM) easily lead the way, with the Pirates ($2.2MM+), Marlins ($1.74MM), and Mariners ($1.57MM+) also have some money to spend — or, perhaps, to trade to a would-be Otani suitor. For someone who is expected to be an immediate and significant contributor at the major-league level, that’s a pittance no matter the precise amount. Of course, he’ll also have a chance to make significant income off the field and through a future extension or trip through arbitration.
Rangers Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Andrew Cashner
The Rangers will not make a qualifying offer to right-hander Andrew Cashner, GM Jon Daniels tells reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan). MLBl.com’s Mark Feinsand had tweeted shortly before Daniels’ comments that Cashner would not receive a QO.
A qualifying offer for Cashner has always been a long shot, though reports in recent weeks have suggested that Texas was at least weighing the one-year, $17.4MM proposal to Cashner. Texas signed Cashner to a one-year, $10MM contract last offseason and was rewarded with 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball. Cashner, though, turned in one of the worst K/9 rates in all of baseball (4.64) and averaged a pedestrian 3.46 BB/9 as well. His unsightly K/BB numbers make him a candidate for significant regression in the ERA department, as is evidenced by less-than-glowing reviews from metrics like FIP (4.61), xFIP (5.30) and SIERA (5.52).
That said, Cashner has made 27 or more starts in each of the past three seasons and averaged 150+ innings per year in that time. He’s not the top-end starter that may projected him to be in his prospect days and early in his career with the Padres, but the 31-year-old should nonetheless draw interest from several clubs this offseason as teams look to round out the back of their rotation.
Rangers Exercise Option On Perez, Decline Options On Barnette, Napoli
The Rangers announced that they’ve exercised their $6MM club option on left-hander Martin Perez. The 2018 options of Tony Barnette ($4MM) and Mike Napoli ($11MM) have been declined. Barnette will receive a $250K buyout, while Napoli receives a $2.5MM buyout.
Beyond the option decisions, the Rangers announced that catcher A.J. Jimenez and right-hander Austin Bibens-Dirkx have cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Round Rock.
In coaching staff news for the Rangers, Texas also announced that it has hired former Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen as its new assistant pitching coach and hired former big league right-hander Colby Lewis as a special assistant to GM Jon Daniels.
The 26-year-old Perez hasn’t exactly made good on his once lofty prospect status, but he’s developed into a dependable back-of-the-rotation starter. Given the affordable nature of his option and the steep $2.35MM buyout that was associated with that option, it’d have been nothing short of shocking to see his option declined.
The 2017 season saw Perez log a team-high 185 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate. Obviously, his run-prevention numbers weren’t anywhere near where Perez or the team would’ve hoped, but he’s made 65 starts across the past two seasons for a Rangers team that is in desperate need of innings. Andrew Cashner and Miguel Gonzalez are free agents, leaving Perez and Cole Hamels as the only true locks for the Texas rotation. Other options include Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin and Yohander Mendez, but the Rangers very clearly need to add multiple arms to the rotation for the coming season.
Barnette, 34 later this week. made his Major League debut with the Rangers in 2016. A former Diamondbacks farmhand, Barnette never cracked the Majors early in his career and instead went overseas to find enormous success pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He earned a two-year Major League contract with the Rangers as a result of efforts in Japan and was every bit worth that investment in his first year with the club.
In 2016, Barnette pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 with a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate in 60 1/3 innings out of manager Jeff Bannister’s bullpen. However, his strand rate plummeted in 2017 as his BABIP rose, causing his ERA to spike to 5.49. Barnette’s strikeout rate actually improved in ’17, and metrics like FIP and xFIP didn’t feel he was all that much worse than he was in 2016. However, the disappointing bottom-line results and a need for more bullpen stability caused the Rangers to move on. Barnette’s strong 2016 season and promising uptick in punchouts could generate him some interest on big league deals with a low base salary this winter, but many teams will likely hope to bring him into camp on a minor league contract.
The 36-year-old Napoli swatted 29 homers in his return to Arlington this season but saw his batting average check in south of the Mendoza Line and his OBP land in the upper .200s. Overall, the benefit of his considerable power (.235 ISO) was counteracted by a .193/.285/.428 batting line and below-average baserunning. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference pegged him slightly worse than replacement level. Napoli struck out at a career-worst 33.6 percent clip and also popped up at a career-high 15.6 percent pace. A troublesome 38.1 percent of his trips to the plate resulted in a punchout or an infield fly. He’d already been informed that his option would be declined (as previously detailed on MLBTR), and he’ll now return to the open market in search of a new team for the 2018 campaign.
Rangers Rumors: Darvish, Cobb
- Former Rangers ace and soon-to-be free agent Yu Darvish is not atop their offseason wish list, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. The Rangers will contact Darvish’s agent during free agency, but the likelihood is that he’ll be too pricey to return to the team, per Wilson. With a Darvish reunion looking like a long shot, the Rangers might turn to another established free agent right-hander in Alex Cobb, whom they covet, according to Wilson. The longtime Ray, 30, returned from a 2015 Tommy John procedure in earnest this year, tossing 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA/4.16 FIP ball.
Yu Darvish Reflects On Rangers Tenure
Reflecting on his six-year tenure with the Rangers, impending free agent right-hander Yu Darvish told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News via text (through an interpreter) that he “listened and paid too much attention to any criticism I heard inside and outside the clubhouse” when he was a member of the team. Darvish also revealed that his relationship with his Rangers teammates “wasn’t great” at times. Those issues sapped Darvish of some of his joy for baseball, though he noted that he began regaining it after the Rangers traded him to the Dodgers on July 31. Darvish explained that his loss of enthusiasm wasn’t the fault of his previous club, however, as he came to realize “how much the Rangers and the fans cared about me” while in LA over the final three months of the season.
Rangers, Red Sox Talked Darvish Trade
- The Red Sox asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish prior to the trade deadline, Evan Drellich of NBCSports.com reports. It seems like this was mostly a cursory check-in, as talks fizzled since the Sox weren’t interested in moving a Major League player and the Rangers weren’t too interested in Boston’s prospects. It could be argued that the Sox have enough injury uncertainty in their pitching staff to require adding another veteran arm this winter, though Darvish doesn’t seem like a fit in free agency due to his big price tag and Boston’s more pressing need for offensive help.