Deadline Retrospective: How Astros Lost Britton; Why Padres Held Hand
The Astros’ lone move this past Monday was the acquisition of Francisco Liriano from the Blue Jays, but multiple reports indicate a significant reason for their lack of activity is due to the fact that an agreed-upon deal for Zach Britton fell through at the eleventh hour. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (here and here), MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman each reported key aspects of the story. You’ll certainly want to read those links in full for all the interesting details, but we’ll cover some highlights here.
Astros owner Jim Crane said in a radio interview with ESPN 97.5 in Houston that his team had multiple trades that were “agreed to in principle” before medical issues led to those deals getting “vetoed at the top.” The Orioles are known to have the most stringent medical standards of any team in the league, though it’s also interesting that Rosenthal reports that Houston also had a deal lined up for an unidentified “high-end” reliever that would have “surprised the industry” upon being traded.
Per Kubatko and Rosenthal, the Britton deal broke down when the Orioles raised medical concerns over two of the players in the deal — believing one to have a “legitimate medical problem” and deeming another to be somewhat questionable. The identity of the prospects in question isn’t known, though Kubatko says the pair were both pitchers and Rosenthal hears that as many as six to seven Astros prospects were deemed off-limits in trade talks for Britton. Ultimately, the Orioles “went dark” on both the Astros and the Dodgers, who were also in the mix for Britton, for several hours before simply telling L.A. that Britton was off the table about an hour prior to the deadline, Rosenthal continues. Baltimore made a last-minute offer to Houston, but the Astros deemed it too steep.
Heyman writes that while many will place the blame on Baltimore owner Peter Angelos, Orioles officials insisted to him that the medical reports on the players the O’s would have received of great enough concern that no deal was ever even presented to Angelos. Heyman spoke to multiple execs from other teams that suggested Houston is too stingy when it comes to surrendering its top prospects in a deal, and that penchant for hanging onto prized young talent ultimately led to a quiet deadline for GM Jeff Luhnow and his staff.
Of course, the Astros had plenty of reason to be cautious when it comes to Britton. The once-elite reliever has missed most of the 2017 season due to a pair of DL stints tied to a forearm injury and at the time of the deadline had only worked back-to-back days once since being activated off the DL (and once during a minor league rehab stint). He posted an 8-to-4 K/BB ratio in 10 July innings before the non-waiver deadline, though it’s perhaps worth noting that he did work on a third consecutive evening the night of the deadline.
Houston did, of course, have other irons in the fire — including the intriguing mystery reliever noted by Rosenthal as well as Yu Darvish. Indeed, it seems the former only fell through at the ownership level from the other team. And Houston’s front office felt it made a stronger offer for Darvish than did the Dodgers, says Rosenthal, who notes the Rangers simply didn’t see it that way (the front office had authority to deal the righty within the state).
Brad Hand of the Padres, though, seemingly represented the most obvious alternative to Britton — at least, after the Cubs grabbed Justin Wilson, in part owing to a wariness of dealing with the O’s on deadline day. But Houston and San Diego just never saw eye to eye on the southpaw’s value, per Rosenthal and Heyman.
Sources from the Pads indicate the club ultimately backed away from seeking top-100-type talent, though not all rival executives seem to have viewed it that way. It seems that San Diego did at least check down from the top-tier prospects it initially sought, though obviously there was still a gap that was never bridged. Details remain scant, though Rosenthal notes the Astros held the same six prospects off-limits for Hand that they did for Britton; per Heyman, the Nationals were no more willing to discuss Carter Kieboom than their top outfielder prospects and the Dodgers preferred cheaper options even though the Padres would’ve taken a package of multiple prospects outside of the Dodgers’ five best.
Ultimately, the fact that both Britton and Hand stayed with their respective organizations leaves some potentially un-done work for all involved. The Astros obviously had intended to do more at the deadline, and could look to find alternatives this August. There’s also an impact on their plans for 2018 and beyond. That’s all the more true for the Orioles and Padres, who’ll likely shop their lefties this winter.
Beltre Candid In Discussing Thoughts On Rebuilding
- Adrian Beltre didn’t sugarcoat his words in telling the media that he wasn’t pleased with the Rangers‘ trade of Yu Darvish, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Beltre acknowledged that he understands the business side of the game but still hadn’t given up on the 2017 season when Texas flipped its ace to the Dodgers in exchange for three prospects. The future Hall of Famer, playing at the age of 39, also made clear that he’s not interested in playing for a rebuilding club, if that’s the direction the Rangers go. “At this stage of my career, I’m not here for a rebuild,” said Beltre. “But I don’t think it will be. I think there is a possibility of this team playing better this year.” Beltre said a rebuild would “absolutely” change his mind about wanting to remain in Texas, though GM Jon Daniels downplayed the notion that such a path is even under consideration. Asked if the Darvish trade was the onset of a lengthier rebuild, Daniels replied: “I don’t look at it that way at all.”
How Yu Darvish Deal Came Together
- The Dodgers‘ acquisition of Yu Darvish came together quite late, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports explains in fascinating detail. It became apparent the Dodgers wouldn’t get Zach Britton from the Orioles within a half hour of the deadline, but the team had already “abandoned hope” of landing Darvish. The Rangers, meanwhile, had run through their alternative trade partners for the ace righty and found none availing. The paths of the two organizations converged just twenty minutes before the deadline. You’ll certainly want to give the story a full read; Texas fans will also want to check out this piece from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on the team’s unannounced but still-evident rebuilding path.
- In the end, there just wasn’t that much demand in the marketplace for Darvish, Rosenthal also notes — so much so that the Dodgers were nearly in position to land both Darvish from the Rangers and lefty Zach Britton from the Orioles. That said, there was “some overlap” between the prospects in both potential deals, and it obviously would’ve required a steep overall price to get both arms. Instead, Los Angeles added two different lefties, Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade
Yesterday’s last-minute Yu Darvish swap represented perhaps the most dramatic move of deadline day for a host of reasons. It not only broke after the deadline itself, but represented a major shift for the Rangers and left the Dodgers with another ace on a loaded pitching staff. While the trade doesn’t really impact the picture in the NL West — the Dodgers were seemingly running away with things without him — it could well change the complexion of the postseason.
The rights to employ Darvish over the next few months — but, mostly, to have him for the NLDS (and, the Dodgers hope, beyond) — came at a cost. Just how much that’ll sting is debatable and perhaps also largely remains to be seen. While the Dodgers held onto the prospects they evidently cherish most (Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler), they gave up an intriguing, near-majors hitter in Willie Calhoun while also sacrificing two high-upside youngsters in A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis.
It doesn’t make much sense to approach a deal like this by contemplating which side “won;” after all, they were both in very different positions. The Rangers essentially decided they did not need Darvish through the end of his contract, since a postseason run was unlikely. And the Dodgers took quite the opposite position, with a willingness to sacrifice pre-MLB talent to add the established hurler.
Instead, given the organizations’ varied approaches, it seems worth polling the MLBTR readership for grades on the deal from the perspective of each side. First, the Rangers: do you think the return will prove significant enough to justify the lessened possibility of a Wild Card, any (perhaps minimal) reduction in the potential to re-sign Darvish, and the draft compensation (a choice at the end of the second round) that would have accrued had Darvish declined a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere? (Link for app users.)
Grade the Rangers Trade of Yu Darvish
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B 42% (5,549)
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A 27% (3,554)
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C 21% (2,750)
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D 5% (721)
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F 4% (564)
Total votes: 13,138
And for the Dodgers … was it worth giving up Calhoun and more for a starter on a team loaded with them? Ought these or other players have been used to acquire a better left-handed relievers than those (Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani) that were acquired? Etc. (Link for app users.)
Grade the Dodgers Acquisition of Yu Darvish
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A 56% (6,596)
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B 25% (2,956)
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C 12% (1,470)
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D 4% (445)
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F 3% (327)
Total votes: 11,794
Jurickson Profar Disappointed Over Lack Of Trade
Jurickson Profar didn’t appear in the lineup for the Rangers‘ Triple-A affiliate tonight, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Profar was frustrated that he wasn’t traded in a deadline deal. Profar has long been a staple of trade rumors dating back to his time as baseball’s top prospect, though injuries and a lack of production over 718 big league plate appearances have dimmed his star considerably. Profar is still just 24 years old and he’s been hitting well at Triple-A this year, though without a clear path to playing time or even a stable position ahead of him in Texas, it appears as though Profar is looking for a change of scenery. Of course, if other teams now know that Profar wants out, it will be harder for the Rangers to recoup value for him in a deal, so Profar may not have any immediate route to another team. He is under team control through the 2019 season.
Rangers Release Wesley Wright
- The Rangers released veteran southpaw Wesley Wright earlier this month. Wright posted a 4.16 ERA in 307 innings over eight big league seasons from 2008-15, though he hasn’t been back to the majors since, plus he’s struggled at the Triple-A level in the Texas and Boston organizations over the last two seasons.
Dodgers Acquire Yu Darvish
The Dodgers and Rangers have pulled off a last-minute stunner, striking a deal that sends star righty Yu Darvish to Los Angeles. Second baseman/outfielder Willie Calhoun is the headliner of the return, with righty A.J. Alexy and infielder Brendon Davis rounding out the package going to Texas. To clear a 40-man spot, the Dodgers designated infielder/outfielder Mike Freeman for assignment.
Heading into the deadline, it wasn’t even clear whether Darvish would be available. And as the deadline approached, it seemed perhaps he’d stay with the Rangers — with a high asking price perhaps getting in the way of a swap. But even as the Dodgers added two lefties to the bullpen, they swooped in and added the high-powered righty.
Darvish, 30, was clearly the most impactful pitching rental on the market. While he has only managed a 4.01 ERA on the year — much of that due to an awful recent start — he’s still rolling with 9.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. Of greater importance, perhaps, he has managed to provided 137 innings over 22 starts — putting him on pace to approach or top 200 innings for the first time since 2013.
Never a big groundball pitcher, Darvish has been hurt by the flies this year. He has allowed 1.31 homers per nine on a 15.0% HR/FB rate. But he’s still managing a typical 11.9% swinging-strike rate, working in the zone more than ever, and generally pitching like himself for the most part.
Darvish, when pitching to his ability, is one of the game’s top starters. Since he broke into the majors in 2012, Darvish has been one of the twenty most valuable hurlers by measure of fWAR — despite logging far fewer innings than any other pitchers in his company because he missed significant time after Tommy John surgery.
The long-term elbow question is one the Dodgers won’t really need to worry about, as Darvish will be a pure rental. He is slated to hit the open market at season’s end, when he’ll finish the six-year, $56MM pact he signed when he came over from his native Japan. (Texas also paid over $50MM in posting fees.) Darvish is earning $11MM this year and stands to take home quite a bit more thereafter; he’ll now enter free agency free and clear of any qualifying offer-related draft compensation.
Los Angeles surely didn’t need this addition to win the NL West, which it currently paces in a runaway and will almost certainly take for the fifth straight season. Acquiring Darvish is designed with one goal in mind: driving the club to a World Series win for the first time since 1988. The righty will presumably slot among a group of talented lefties, led by Clayton Kershaw (when healthy) and also including Alex Wood and Rich Hill. Los Angeles can also give innings to Kenta Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu and others, with the precise alignment still to be determined. (It’s worth remembering, too, that Julio Urias was expected to be a major part of the staff; had he not suffered a season-ending injury, this swap may never have taken place.)
Adding Darvish came at a cost, of course, though it did not require the team to part with its most prized prospects. Once the Rangers decided to move the righty — with an eye still to trying to re-sign him in the winter, perhaps — the club surely knew its return would be limited by market forces. While Texas won’t land an elite prospect in the swap, it does add some real talent.
Calhoun is generally the highest-rated prospect in this deal. The 22-year-old is a left-handed hitter who shows big promise at the plate. He cracked top-100 prospect lists entering the season and has responded with an outstanding .298/.357/.574 batting line — with 23 home runs and just 49 strikeouts against 36 walks — over his first 414 plate appearances at Triple-A. The expectation is that he’ll ultimately end up in the grass, where he could combine with Nomar Mazara to make quite a corner outfield pairing for years to come.
The other players in the deal are talented as well. Alexy is a 19-year-old hurler who was taken in the 11th round of the 2016 draft. He has advanced to the Class A level, where he carries a 3.67 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 through 73 2/3 innings. He’s seen as having some projection left in his wiry frame, but is obviously already throwing well at an early stage. Davis, who just turned 20, was a fifth-round selection in 2015. He’s seen as a raw and athletic talent who has a lot of development left, though there are signs of real progress this year. Davis recently earned a promotion to High-A after slashing .245/.357/.403 with eight long balls — with 107 strikeouts but also 47 walks — through 367 plate appearances at Class A Great Lakes.
Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network reported the trade (Twitter links). ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) said three prospects would go in return, with MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter) providing the names.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers Acquire Jeremy Jeffress
The Brewers have struck a deal to acquire righty Jeremy Jeffress from the Rangers, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick first reported (via Twitter). The move reverses the reliever’s move this time last year, when he headed to Texas from Milwaukee along with Jonathan Lucroy. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweets that the Rangers will receive righty Tayler Scott in return.
The 29-year-old Jeffress returns to the organization that drafted him in the first round in 2006, and for whom he played in 2010 and 2014-16. (He saved 27 games for the Brewers last season, although he doesn’t seem likely to now supplant Corey Knebel as the Brewers’ closer this year.) Jeffress hasn’t been the pitcher this season that he was in that second Brewers stint, however — in 40 2/3 innings with Texas this year, he’s posted a 5.31 ERA, 6.4 K/9 and an ugly 4.2 BB/9. He has, however, maintained mid-90s velocity, and the Brewers likely hope he returns to some version of his prior self as he gets a change of scenery. If he does, they can control him for two more years after this one through the arbitration process.
Scott, 25, had a 2.34 ERA with a strong 9.2 K/9 but a too-high 5.1 BB/9 in 61 2/3 innings of relief this season at Double-A Biloxi. He was a fifth-round pick of the Cubs in 2011, but Chicago released him last year, then signed a minor-league deal with the Brewers after a brief stint in independent ball. He did not rank in MLB.com’s list of the Brewers’ top 30 prospects.
Yu Darvish Trade Rumors: Deadline Day
It’s quite possible that today is Yu Darvish‘s last day as a member of the Rangers organization. The Texas ace has drawn interest from several teams, with the Dodgers the most prominently linked club. However, Darvish has also been tied to the Yankees and the Indians to varying extents. The Astros are also said to have checked in, though the intra-division roadblock makes that notion a bit tougher. We’ll track all of the latest Darvish chatter in this post between now and the 4pm ET non-waiver trade deadline…
- At this point, it seems that Darvish will either go to the Dodgers or stay put, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Given other indications that Los Angeles is focused elsewhere, it could be that the righty won’t end up changing hands today.
- Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter) that it’s “getting increasingly harder” to envision Darvish landing with the Dodgers, as the two sides “simply aren’t matching up.”
Earlier Updates
- Bowden suggests that the Dodgers could look to pry lefty Alex Claudio away from the Rangers in a package deal alongside Darvish (Twitter link). Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests the same, though he notes that it’d still require the Dodgers changing their stance on the inclusion of Verdugo or Buehler. Claudio, though, is just 25 years old and is controlled through 2021, so he’d be a nice long-term piece for L.A. He’s held lefties to a laughable .131/.169/.197 slash this year and has a masterful 70.5 percent ground-ball rate overall in 2017. However, he doesn’t miss many bats.
- Yahoo’s Tim Brown tweets that the Indians “are not in on Darvish” at this time. Notably, Cleveland was reported by Hoynes to be in pursuit of Orioles closer Zach Britton.
- ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, however, hears that the Indians and Astros are both “hanging around” in the Darvish picture, but the Dodgers are Texas’ preferred trading partner (Twitter link). The Yankees‘ interest in Darvish is dependent on the outcome of their talks for Sonny Gray, Crasnick adds.
- Bowden tweets that the Astros, Indians and Dodgers are the three teams that are still in the mix for Darvish, and he again mentions Mejia’s name in connection to talks. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets that the Indians are interested in Darvish only if the price tag drops.
- While the Dodgers have generally regarded as the favorites for Darvish, their talks with the Rangers have essentially reached an impasse, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Los Angeles has reportedly been unwilling to part with the likes of top-ranked prospects Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez for a half-season rental of Darvish, and it would seem that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has yet to budge in that regard.
- The Rangers and Indians have spoken about a “Yu Darvish for Francisco Mejia type” of deal, tweets Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. Including Mejia, the consensus top catching prospect in baseball, would be a steep price for Cleveland to pay for a rental, though the wording of the report leaves some wiggle room for other pieces to potentially be involved. The 21-year-old Mejia is hitting .317/.367/.520 with 10 homers through his first 279 plate appearances in Double-A and ranked as baseball’s sixth-best prospect on Keith Law’s midseason list. MLB.com pegged him 16th overall, while Baseball America had him 18th. Cleveland is on Darvish’s no-trade list, though it remains possible that he could waive that right for a clearer shot at the postseason.
Rangers Open To Considering Deals Involving Alex Claudio
- The Rangers are “reluctantly willing” to engage in trade talks on reliever Alex Claudio, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). He becomes the latest Texas player to hit the rumor wire, joining fellow relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Keone Kela (though as Grant notes, Jeffress may just end up being DFA’ed). Among those hurlers, Claudio — a 25-year-old southpaw — is likely the one that Texas is least inclined to deal. While he doesn’t record many strikeouts, Claudio allows few free passes and has turned into a groundball monster over the past two seasons. He’s also cheap and controllable for four more seasons. Grant hints that Texas could consider attempting to package Claudio with Yu Darvish if that’d move the needle significantly in the effort to achieve a big return for the star hurler. That could indeed present an intriguing potential package for a team eyeing Darvish, providing a quality and controllable pen lefty to go with the rental starter, though such a swap would no doubt still be tricky to work out.