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Where Do The Cubs Go From Here?

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Last week’s trades of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant were painful for Cubs fans.  Rizzo had been a Cub for 9.5 years.  Baez was drafted by the Cubs and his tenure lasted a decade.  Bryant was with the team for eight years after being drafted.  By 3pm Friday, all three were in different uniforms.  We can debate separately why it came to this, but today the question is, where do the Cubs go from here?

Let’s take stock of what the Cubs currently have at each position.

Catcher

Willson Contreras, 29, is under team control through 2022.  As Contreras put it recently, “This is the only team I’ve played for, and if they want to rebuild around me, I’m happy to talk.”  Given GM Jed Hoyer’s frustration in failing to lock up Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant, the Cubs may not necessarily be able to match up with Contreras, in which case an offseason trade would make sense.

22-year-old Miguel Amaya, the heir apparent, currently sports an odd Double-A batting line of .215/.406/.304.  FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently downgraded Amaya to a 45 grade, on account of a relative lack of power.  He hasn’t played since June 3rd due to an injury.

There are no franchise catchers in the 2021-22 free agent class, so the Cubs have all of 2022 to figure out if their future starter behind the dish will be Contreras, Amaya, or neither.

First Base

Rizzo was a mainstay at first base for the Cubs since 2012, but he was traded to the Yankees last Thursday.  Last March, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported the Cubs offered him a five-year, $70MM extension.  Technically, the Cubs could bring Rizzo back in the offseason, but that will probably only happen if he finds the open market terribly disappointing.  And even in that case, he may prefer to play for a team with a better shot at reaching the playoffs.

In Rizzo’s absence, Patrick Wisdom has been playing first base for the Cubs.  Wisdom, who turns 30 later this month, owns a 142 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances this year.  More time will be needed to determine whether Wisdom is a valuable late bloomer, or if he’s a journeyman having a good couple of months.  Wisdom is nowhere near free agency and won’t even be arbitration eligible until after 2023, so the Cubs can afford to give him regular playing time in 2022.  He’s played more third than first base, so that could be his ultimate spot.  The Cubs could also take a look some point at Alfonso Rivas, who has a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A despite modest power.

This winter the Cubs could hit the market for a veteran placeholder in the mold of Brandon Belt or C.J. Cron, if they decide to play Wisdom mostly at third base in 2022.

Second Base

The Cubs were surprisingly able to land Nick Madrigal from the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel in one of their trade deadline deals.  Madrigal, 25 in March, is under team control through 2026.  He’s out for the season due to a torn hamstring, but figures to be a mainstay in the Cubs’ lineup for years.

Shortstop

In 2019, Baez settled in as the Cubs’ everyday shortstop, a year after he finished second in the MVP voting.  He was a fan favorite, but again, the Cubs couldn’t find common ground on a contract extension.  Baez was traded to the Mets, where he’ll play shortstop until Francisco Lindor returns from an injury, and then switch to second base to finish out the season alongside his friend.

Last April, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that in spring 2020, the Cubs offered Baez a contract in the range of $160-170MM.  ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested the $180MM range.  That’s not an amount I expect Baez to approach in free agency this winter, especially with significant competition at shortstop.  This is a case where the Cubs keeping the door open to a reunion could potentially matter, but like Rizzo he’d still have to experience a disappointing market first.  The lack of a collective bargaining agreement could further complicate matters.

Under the Theo Epstein regime, the Cubs were not opposed to making a free agent strike if they liked the player, even if their perceived competitive window was not yet open.  The idea worked poorly with Edwin Jackson, and well with Jon Lester.  In that sense, it wouldn’t be crazy to see the Cubs make a run at one of the jewels of the 2021-22 free agent class, Corey Seager or Carlos Correa.  Both are young enough that if 2022 and ’23 turn out to be rebuilding years for the Cubs, they’d still have a portion of the player’s prime.  The players might require a premium to enter into a rebuilding situation.

On the other hand, the Cubs’ $126MM deal for Yu Darvish will be nearly three years in the past when free agency opens, and the Ricketts family has not been flexing financial muscle in the interim.  The Cubs have only about $40MM committed to the 2022 payroll, with Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote.

Barring an unlikely major free agent signing, the Cubs’ future at shortstop involves Nico Hoerner and Ed Howard.  Hoerner figures to play the position in the immediate future.  Howard, who the Cubs drafted 16th overall out of high school last summer, might be the long-term answer.  Cristian Hernandez may be in that discussion as well, but both teenagers are several years away.

Third Base

Wisdom and Bote should be in the mix for the Cubs at the hot corner next year, with Matt Duffy headed to free agency.  Prospect Christopher Morel hasn’t done much with Double-A pitching so far this year, but if he figures it out he’ll enter the third base picture.  Even if Wisdom works out as a big league regular, the Cubs will be lacking at whichever infield corner he doesn’t play.  The free agent market doesn’t offer any exciting players, aside from Bryant.

Left Field

Ian Happ has drawn the Cubs’ left field assignment of late, though he’s having an abysmal year.  Making $4.1MM through arbitration this year, he won’t get much of a raise this winter, so the Cubs can afford another year to see if he can regain his hitting stroke.  A stopgap veteran addition would also make sense, with free agency featuring Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and even players the Cubs have already tried like Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson.

Center Field

The Cubs are well-covered here, as prospect Brennen Davis was recently ranked 30th in the game by Baseball America.  Davis is playing well at Double-A this year, with a .267/.383/.515 line.  BA has suggested he may eventually move to right field, and at Double-A he’s spent more time in center but a fair bit in right.  You can safely pencil Davis in at one of those two spots – probably in late April next year once he’s done “working on his defense” (wink, wink).

Meanwhile in the Majors, with Happ struggling and Jake Marisnick traded, Rafael Ortega is attempting to win the Cubs’ regular center field job.  After a recent home run binge, the 30-year-old is up to a 144 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances.  Like Wisdom, it’s too early to say whether Ortega will establish himself as an above average big leaguer.  But the Cubs are in good position to let Ortega try for the rest of the year, and into 2022 if it goes well.

Right Field

With a 63 wRC+ this year, Jason Heyward’s offense has been reminiscent of his first year with the Cubs, when he surprisingly slumped to a 72 mark.  If his struggles persist, the Cubs are going to have better uses of the playing time.  Heyward is owed $44MM from 2022-23.  He remains the one large contract on the Cubs’ books, but only two years remain.

Greg Deichmann, who joined the Cubs in the Andrew Chafin trade with Oakland, is a name to watch in the team’s right field mix.  He posted a .433 OBP for the Triple-A Las Vegas Aviators and should be in the Majors soon.  The Cubs have a slew of other outfield prospects in the system, but most of them are further away.

Starting Rotation

Kyle Hendricks continues to be the rock of the Cubs’ rotation.  The low-key veteran can be retained through 2024 if the Cubs pick up his club option.  While Hendricks could be traded this winter, the 31-year-old soft-tosser could also be part of the next Cubs contender.  Hendricks seems like he’ll age gracefully, since he’s not dependent on velocity.

Adbert Alzolay has shown enough to have a rotation spot locked down for next year.  He’s got a 4.85 ERA in 19 starts, which isn’t great, but he probably won’t continue to see a quarter of his flyballs leave the yard.  Alzolay’s struggles against left-handed hitters have been pronounced, however: 19 home runs in 196 batters faced.  Still, the bar is pretty low to be in the Cubs’ 2022 rotation.  Alec Mills will still be around next year to fill a swingman role.

Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson are being stretched out for looks in the Cubs’ rotation down the stretch.  These are not pitchers the prospect hounds get particularly excited about, but the Cubs have plenty of opportunity for anyone who can capitalize.  Prospect gurus do get excited about Brailyn Marquez, who Baseball America ranked as the 99th-best prospect in the game.  However, the 22-year-old has yet to pitch this year due to a shoulder strain. Caleb Kilian, acquired in the Bryant deal, has pitched well at Double-A, so we could see him in the Majors relatively soon.

As it stands now, the Cubs simply don’t have the pitching in-house to get through the 2022 season, let alone compete.  It’s a rotation ripe for opportunistic free agent signings, a place where guys like Dylan Bundy or James Paxton can look to get their careers back on track before getting flipped for prospects.

Bullpen

The Cubs’ bullpen has been stripped of its three highest-leverage relievers: Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin.  Codi Heuer, acquired in the Kimbrel deal, will take a spot.  Beyond him, I assume the Cubs will look to replicate one of their few successes of the previous offseason: the signings of Tepera and Chafin for a total of $3.55MM.  The goal will be to sign another batch of veteran relievers, coax good first halves out of them, and trade them for prospects at the deadline.

Conclusion

After all the star players were purged, the Cubs are frankly low on present talent.  For 2022, they’ve got massive holes throughout their lineup and pitching staff.  Their farm system has Davis plus various interesting players, but it’s not teeming with blue-chip prospects like the Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Tigers.  Given their market size, it doesn’t seem like the Cubs should be dropping down to a bottom-10 payroll in the game.  But an analysis of the roster and farm system suggests the Cubs cannot spend their way back into contention, at least not in the 2021-22 offseason alone.  Last time it was a three-year rebuild, and to contend again with anything less will be a difficult or expensive feat.

Cubs’ Hoyer Discusses Lack Of Extensions For Core Players

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It’s been a surreal week for Cubs fans, watching the core of the 2016 World Series club head out the door at the trade deadline in exchange for a series of prospects. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez have been the faces of the Cubs for a half decade now, but they now find themselves with the Giants, Yankees and Mets, respectively. Also out the door are closer Craig Kimbrel, right-hander Ryan Tepera, lefty Andrew Chafin, outfielder Joc Pederson and outfielder Jake Marisnick.

Generally speaking, fans knew this was coming, but even after president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made clear that the Cubs were shifting to a seller’s mindset, there were many who questioned just how far the sale would go. Bryant had long been viewed as a trade candidate after talks with him had failed to materialize in a deal multiple times in the past. Baez, however, had spoken more optimistically about reaching a deal in the past, as had Rizzo. Now, days after the deadline, Hoyer expressed frustration during a radio interview on ESPN 1000.

“I put my head on the pillow every night knowing that we put our best foot forward,” said Hoyer (Twitter thread via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers). “The extensions we offered these guys will hold up exceptionally well, historically they’ll hold up exceptionally well against the open market. I don’t know why guys didn’t want to sign. I don’t know why guys didn’t even want to counteroffer sometimes.”

Hoyer lamented that while many players publicly expressed interest in staying long-term, “when we sat down to do negotiations, that wasn’t how they acted.” Somewhat curiously, he pointed across town to the White Sox, noting that Lance Lynn “could’ve gotten more on the open market this winter but he said ’I want to stay here.'” Of course, Lynn is a 34-year-old trade acquisition who isn’t at all in the same position as the core Cubs who were dealt last Friday, and the implication of blame residing with the now-former Cubs players lacks plenty of critical context.

Rizzo, for instance, would’ve been a free agent in the 2018-19 offseason had he not inked a seven-year, $41MM contract back in May 2013. That deal contained a pair of club options and ultimately wound up paying him $75MM over nine years. There’s a difference in taking the “I want to stay here” approach when you’re an inexperienced pre-arbitration player and a soon-to-be free agent, but Rizzo surely felt he’d already given the Cubs one major break and may have been less inclined to do so a second time. Hoyer was clear that his comments were more general and that not all applied to all three of this core trio, so perhaps the Lynn comparison wasn’t intended to strike a parallel with Rizzo — but it’s difficult to overlook that disconnect.

In Hoyer’s defense, we don’t know how many attempts were made to further extend that contract over the years, but Rizzo’s initial extension proved a to be an overwhelming bargain for the club. We do know that back in March, Hoyer proclaimed he was “very confident” that the Cubs would extend Rizzo. That optimism, which came after Rizzo had already turned down a reported five-year, $70MM offer, didn’t manifest in a deal.

Hoyer is probably correct in asserting that said offer will hold up well against open-market bids, barring a huge post-trade surge for Rizzo. That said, it’s also not hard to see why Rizzo would be nonplused with the offer, if the reported terms were indeed accurate. He was entering the final season of the previously mentioned bargain extension, and a year prior he’d seen the Cardinals lock up Paul Goldschmidt for nearly twice as much — a contract that would begin with Goldschmidt’s age-32 season. Next year is Rizzo’s age-32 season. There’s no ignoring that Rizzo was coming off a down season in 2020, but the gap in those offers is still rather sizable, to say the least.

Baez, meanwhile, spoke openly and often about his desire to remain with the Cubs long-term — just as they similarly expressed interest in keeping him. Talks between the two parties seemed to be ongoing for years, with his chances of striking an accord regularly framed as the most favorable of this core trio.

As with the Rizzo/Lynn bit, it’s important to remember that Hoyer was speaking generally rather than addressing all of his former core players. But his assertion that some players didn’t even bother to counter the team’s extension offers certainly seemed to catch the attention of Baez’s agent, Nick Chanock of Wasserman. Chanock tells ESPN’s Jesse Rogers that the Baez camp did indeed present the Cubs with a counterproposal not long before the Covid-19 pandemic shut the league down. Rogers goes on to write that the team didn’t rekindle those talks, nor did they make a final offer to Baez before trading him.

Reports from ESPN’s Buster Olney and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman earlier this summer suggested that the Cubs offered Baez anywhere from $160MM to $180MM, though the length of those deals isn’t clear. It’s also worth noting that at the time, Baez was a 27-year-old shortstop coming off consecutive six-WAR, All-Star seasons — one of which saw him finish runner-up in NL MVP voting. As with Rizzo, that numbers reported by Olney and Heyman will likely “hold up historically” against any open-market earnings for Baez this winter, but that’s only true in light of Baez’s 2020-21 decline at the plate.

Arguably the most notable bit of context in all this is the Cubs’ brazen manipulation of Bryant’s service time, wherein they called him up to the Majors in 2015 the first day he was assured of missing a full year of service that season. In doing so, they effectively pushed his free agency back a year. Bryant went on to win NL Rookie of the Year honors and NL MVP honors over the next two seasons while earning scarcely more than the league minimum.

The Cubs eventually won a service time grievance over Bryant after a league-appointed arbitrator ruled in the team’s favor. Bryant was not granted the extra year of service he sought. No one would expect any team executive to willingly bring such matters up in an interview of this nature, but that’s a clear piece of the puzzle being left untouched in Hoyer’s telling of the situation.

On the one hand, it’s refreshing to see a team’s president of baseball operations speak with candor rather than deliver the same tropes we hear time and again. On the other, it’s almost befuddling to state that it’d be “bad faith” to go into specifics regarding individual negotiations only to then cast blame on the entire group of players while painting with broad strokes. Nearly any GM or agent, when discussing contract negotiations, will break out some variation of the “it takes two to tango” cliche. Hoyer’s assertion that the Cubs “put our best foot forward and tried our hardest, but it was not reciprocated,” however, puts the onus squarely on the players.

Perhaps in some cases, that’s where the “fault” (for lack of a better term) should lie. Perhaps the team will have better luck this winter with catcher Willson Contreras, who said this weekend that even in spite of the sell-off, he hoped to remain with the Cubs and was “happy to talk” if the team “wants to rebuild around me.” But comments questioning the extent to which former teammates were committed to the team don’t seem the best way to set the table for negotiations with Contreras or any other player — and they’re unlikely to assuage a fanbase that has heard more about the luxury tax and revenue losses for the past few years than about any headway in retaining the core players who changed hands last week.

Rays, Cubs Discussed Potential Trade Involving Tyler Glasnow And Kris Bryant/Craig Kimbrel

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The Rays were known to be in discussions with the Cubs last Friday about swinging a deal to land Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic shed some light on the talks, noting that the teams kicked around various potential frameworks — including ones worked around Tyler Glasnow or Kevin Kiermaier.

Moving Glasnow would’ve been part of a larger package deal that sent Bryant and Kimbrel to Tampa Bay, Rosenthal writes. It’d have been a fascinating development, since Glasnow’s one of the best pitchers in the league when healthy but facing a prolonged absence. The 27-year-old tossed 88 innings of 2.66 ERA/2.89 SIERA ball before suffering a UCL tear in mid-June. He’s spent the past six weeks attempting to rehab the injury, but reports from over the weekend suggest he’s likely to require Tommy John surgery, which would keep him out of action for most or all of the 2022 season.

The Rays made the Cubs aware of that possibility in discussions, Rosenthal notes; Tampa Bay wasn’t hoping to sneak Glasnow through a trade without the Cubs noticing he would probably need to go under the knife. Indeed, Glasnow’s forthcoming surgery was a significant roadblock in that kind of deal getting done.

Glasnow is under team control through 2023 via arbitration. If the right-hander were to miss the entirety of next season, the Cubs would’ve only been able to count on Glasnow for one year before he hit free agency. There’d then be real questions about how many innings he could responsibly take on in 2023 after missing nearly two years. The Rays would’ve had to include additional prospects to make that happen, and Rosenthal writes the team was unwilling to part with any of Wander Franco, Vidal Bruján, Shane Baz, Josh Lowe or Taylor Walls to do so with Bryant reaching free agency a few months from now.

The Kiermaier talks were a little more straightforward, as Rosenthal notes those discussions didn’t involve Kimbrel at all. Kiermaier’s inclusion in any sort of Bryant deal would’ve been to offset salary. (Bryant is playing out the season on a $19.5MM contract, while Kiermaier is making $11.5MM this year and has a $12MM guarantee for 2022, along with a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 club option). In that instance as well, the Rays would obviously have had to send prospects along with Kiermaier to land Bryant.

Ultimately, the Rays didn’t wind up with either player, as the Cubs moved them in separate deals. Chicago sent Bryant to San Francisco for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian, while Kimbrel landed with the White Sox for second baseman Nick Madrigal and reliever Codi Heuer. In Madrigal, the Cubs did land an injured big leaguer but he’s expected to be ready by the start of the 2022 season and comes with three more years of team control than does Glasnow.

Since the Cubs – Rays talks didn’t come to fruition, the Rays’ openness to discuss notable players on the big league roster is more of an interesting footnote than anything else. It does, however, speak to the possibility of Tampa Bay exploring something similar this offseason.

Glasnow is making $4MM this season, and his high-quality first half should land him a decent raise in arbitration this winter. His 2022 salary will probably end up somewhere between $6-8MM; even if he doesn’t pitch next season, he’d make the same amount in 2023. That’s still likely to appeal to many teams given Glasnow’s talent, but it’s a fairly sizable chunk of the Rays’ payroll, which typically lands between $60MM and $80MM. It’s not inconceivable the Rays could look to market Glasnow this offseason to a bigger-spending club, freeing up payroll space and either addressing a deficiency elsewhere on the big league team or recouping prospect talent while opening a 40-man roster spot.

That’s an entirely speculative scenario, to be clear; Rosenthal doesn’t suggest Tampa Bay is actively looking to trade Glasnow or feels obligated to shed salary over the offseason. But his involvement in discussions this summer — regardless of how far those talks actually progressed — serves as another reminder of the Rays’ (and teams’ generally) willingness to consider seemingly off-the-wall possibilities as part of a broader effort to set the organization up in both the present and future.

Deadline Notes: Rockies, Story, Mets, Bryant, Gibson, Nationals, Dodgers

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The Rockies reportedly received offers for All-Star shortstop Trevor Story from the Yankees, Brewers, White Sox, and Rays prior to Friday’s trade deadline, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). The Rockies have been criticized for their failure to move Story, given that they are all but assured to lose him as a free agent after the season. They will get a draft pick when he departs, and their front office did not deem any of the offers received as appreciably better than that draft pick will be.

  • Despite all the talk, the Mets never came particularly close to acquiring Kris Bryant from the Cubs, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The two clubs were obviously in steady communication — and eventually consummated a deal for Javier Baez — but the Cubs kept the conversation away from Bryant. Given how long Bryant had been “on the block,” the Cubs certainly had a sense of what was available.
  • The Mets did, however, explore the cost for Kyle Gibson of the Rangers, notes Puma, but the Rangers informed them that they had a better offer on the table from the Phillies.
  • The Nationals had the pieces in place for a deal that would have sent Max Scherzer to the Padres on Thursday night, but they also had a deal in place with an American League East team, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox were all said to have interest in Scherzer at one point or another.
  • As for the Dodgers’ side of that deal eventual deal, they were intent on holding onto Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack, despite wide-ranging interest in that trio of arms.

July Headlines: National League

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This year’s trade season did not disappoint. After a wild couple of days, we’re gonna do our best to recap the action from one of the busiest trade deadlines in recent memory. Let’s start with the headlines coming out of the Senior Circuit this month…

The Champs Are Still The Champs: This phrase, in many ways, could serve as an ironic headline for this year’s trade deadline, as we saw the dismantling of a couple of former championship teams. The reigning champ, however, was not one of them. The Dodgers reasserted themselves as the team to beat in the National League by making the splashiest move of the deadline in acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals.

The Dodgers stepped up, and now they have perhaps the most intimidating starter of his generation slotted into a rotation with Clayton Kershaw, probably the best pitcher of his generation, along with young stud Walker Buehler. It’s an amazing collection of talent for a single team.

That said, the Turner acquisition might be even more impactful, as he’s under team control  through next season. Turner and Mookie Betts as a 1-2 punch in the lineup are devastating. Interestingly, the Dodgers also got Corey Seager back from the injured list today, and it remains to be seen how the Dodgers will deploy their pair of All-Star shortstops (to say nothing of Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor). The Dodgers have options now and for the future. Remember, Seager is a free agent after the season. They can still bring back their World Series MVP at the right price point, but they won’t be pressured to now that they have Turner in the fold.

The Padres Don’t Land Mad Max: The trade deadline madness really began on Thursday night when it was announced that the Padres and Nats had agreed on the players involved in a Scherzer deal. That didn’t sit well with the Dodgers, who swooped in to remind the Padres of who still runs the West. The Padres were expected to turn their attention to Jose Berrios, but they weren’t able to get him either.

At the end of the day, the Padres didn’t get Scherzer, Berrios, Joey Gallo, or any other of the big names. They did add Adam Frazier, a versatile defender and good contact hitter, along with Daniel Hudson, who is a legitimate get for the bullpen, and Jake Marisnick, who compliments their centerfield options nicely, even if he’s not much more than a depth piece. It was a less impactful deadline than expected, but what’s worse: Fernando Tatis Jr. promptly reaggravated his shoulder injury. Add it all up, and the swing from potentially acquiring Scherzer to potentially losing Tatis is enough to give any Padres fan whiplash.

Giants Add Bryant: The Padres took a big swing and missed, the Dodgers took their swing and connected, and sure to form, the Giants played the deadline slow and steady. Does the tortoise win again? Time will tell, but the Giants did ultimately nab a former MVP in Kris Bryant without giving up a top prospect. Bryant fits their profile like a glove, and he’ll be able to fill in at third until Evan Longoria returns and then move to the outfield.

Remember: The Giants have a three-game head start on LA and a five-game lead on the Padres. Adding Bryant has game-changing potential, while Tony Watson was a solid, low-key add to the pen. The Dodgers are scary, but if the Giants keep playing their game, LA may find themselves in the wild card game anyway.

Cubs Collapse, Dismantle 2016 World Series Champs: In a vacuum, the Cubs had a pretty good deadline. They added a number of buzzy, interesting young players like Nick Madrigal, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario. But it came at a cost. After years of rumors, Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez were finally shipped out of town, along with Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, Ryan Tepera, Marisnick, and Trevor Williams. New players — and new narratives — are long overdue in Chicago, and the next chapter awaits.

Nationals Collapse, Dismantle 2019 World Series Champs: It’s appropriate that the Cubs are in DC to play the Nats this weekend, because really, the two clubs are mirror images of one another, right down to their interconnecting pieces like Kyle Schwarber and Jon Lester. Both teams were trying to contend on the legs of recent title teams, both teams had disastrous months of July, and both clubs desperately needed an influx of young talent. Both teams got it on Friday.

The Nats farm system was even more barren than Chicago’s and their need to restock even direr given the presence of young superstud Juan Soto. So Washington said their fare-thee-wells to  Scherzer, Turner, Hudson, and Yan Gomes from the title team, plus recent additions Lester, Schwarber, Brad Hand, and Josh Harrison. GM Mike Rizzo does not sell off pieces willy nilly, but in doing so, they got some high-end, near-ready pieces as they look to quickly rebuild a contender in context around Soto before the Scott Boras client reaches free agency after the 2024 season.

Brewers Take Their Place Atop The NL Central: Milwaukee made their big acquisition back in May, and Willy Adames has transformed himself and the club since his arrival. They were last under .500 on the day before Adames arrived, they’ve gone 41-19 since and taken firm hold of the NL Central. Still, some tinkering remained on the docket for July, as the Brewers picked up Eduardo Escobar, Rowdy Tellez, John Curtiss, and Daniel Norris.

Injuries Keeping Mets From Runaway Division Title: The Mets left deadline day with a more acute awareness of what they lost than what they gained: Jacob deGrom has been shut down for another couple of weeks, leaving the all-world hurler out until at least September. That’s heartbreaking for a Mets team with a clear path to an NL East title. Plenty of upside remains in the Mets rotation with Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker posting career years, Carlos Carrasco set to make his debut, and Tylor Megill providing the surprising rookie breakout contenders seek. Still, deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are questionable at best for the rest of the season, and the only rotation additions the Mets made at the deadline were Rich Hill and Trevor Williams.

They did, however, account for Francisco Lindor’s injury by adding Javier Baez, Lindor’s friend and countrymate who can ably fill in while Lindor is out and then slide to second or third when he returns. Baez isn’t, perhaps, the former Cub that Mets fans expected, but he’s an excellent fit alongside Lindor and should bolster the pitching staff with his stellar glove — even if acquiring him did cost them a former first-rounder in Crow-Armstrong.

Braves Lose Acuna For The Season: The deadline might have looked a lot different for Atlanta had they not lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season back on July 10th. Without Acuna and Mike Soroka, the Braves weren’t expected to make any major swings at contention. But even a 13-12 July was enough to keep them within four games of first. A fourth consecutive NL East title remains in reach. So they nabbed one of the top available relief arms in Richard Rodriguez, as well as, seemingly, all the outfielders: Jorge Soler, old pal Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, and Joc Pederson, plus Stephen Vogt to reinforce their catching corps.

Soft Buys From The Fringes Of Contention: The Giants and Dodgers made headline additions, while the Nats and Cubs took a firm step away from contention. In the middle, there were a number of clubs that neither sold the farm nor raised the white flag. Such as…

…the Phillies… who seemed poised to add a bevy of arms given their bullpen situation, not to mention a starting rotation that’s received underwhelming performances from the back end. Instead, only Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy came to help, and they cost the Phillies’ top prospect Spencer Howard. Howard’s handling had been in question all season, and now he’s been served an unceremonious end to his Philly tenure. Gibson’s had a fine season thus far with the Rangers, but his groundball approach will be tested in front of Philly’s subpar infield defense. Sure, Freddy Galvis brings his glove back to help out, but will that be enough?

…and the Reds… who looked to undo their winter penny-pinching by restocking the bullpen. Justin Wilson, Luis Cessa, and Mychal Givens will try to help a bullpen that ranks 29th with a 5.31 ERA. The Reds’ inconsistent play in July kept them squarely on the deadline fence, however, and now that Nick Castellanos is on the injured list, they’re seven games behind the Brewers and looking like longshots for the postseason.

…and the Cardinals…who added a few pieces at the deadline, despite being 9.5 games behind the Brewers and 6.5 out of a wild card spot. The additions were modest, however, as St. Louis went on a run of graybeard southpaws in July, adding 36-year-old Wade LeBlanc, 37-year-old Jon Lester, and 38-year-old J.A. Happ to a rotation fronted by 39-year-old Adam Wainwright and caught by 39-year-old Yadier Molina.

Cellar Dwellers Sell: The Marlins, Pirates, and Diamondbacks, each in last place of their respective divisions, made some moves to turn expiring talent into youth for the future. The Marlins added the biggest fish in Jesus Luzardo, but the Pirates did well for themselves, too, by adding some plug-and-play talent like Michael Chavis from Boston and Bryse Wilson from Atlanta, while also grabbing two prospects from Seattle for Tyler Anderson. The Dbacks weren’t quite as active, but they did move Escobar and Joakim Soria, though a COVID-19 outbreak has brought more pressing issues to their attention.

The Rockies Don’t Trade Trevor Story Or Jon Gray: The most perplexing moves of the deadline were the trades that didn’t happen. Despite having no shot at contention in a division with zero margin for error (in the short-and-long term), the Rockies chose to stand pat rather than build for the future. Holding Gray is one thing, but Story has stated his desire to move on, so their decision not to acquire a prospect or two for him before he walks might be the biggest shock of deadline season.

Deadline Day Roster Moves

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After what was arguably the wildest trade deadline in years with dozens of deals around the league, multiple teams made follow-up roster moves. Trades end up squeezing some players off of rosters, or creating holes that need to be filled. This post will itemize the many 40-man roster moves that teams made after a dizzying array of blockbuster deals earlier in the day.

AL East

AL Central

  • Pablo Sandoval was released by the Indians. This was just hours after he was acquired in the Eddie Rosario trade. Based on his release, it’s clear that he was only included as salary offset.
  • The Tigers selected the contract of reliever Ian Krol. The left-hander is back after being designated for assignment earlier in the week.

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

  • The Diamondbacks claimed outfielder Jake Hager off waivers from the Mariners. This will be Hager’s fourth club on the season, having been previously designated for assignment by the Mets, Brewers and Mariners. Arizona also selected the contracts of infielder Drew Ellis and left-hander Miguel Aguilar.
  • The Dodgers announced that they claimed catcher Chad Wallach off waivers from the Marlins. Wallach was recently designated for assignment when Brian Anderson was reinstated from the IL.

White Sox Acquire Craig Kimbrel For Nick Madrigal, Codi Heuer

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The Cubs and White Sox swung a crosstown blockbuster, with the South Siders adding star reliever Craig Kimbrel in exchange for second baseman Nick Madrigal and right-hander Codi Heuer. Kimbrel will pair with Liam Hendriks to give the Sox a lethal one-two punch at the back end of the bullpen.

Kimbrel becomes the second reliever dealt between the crosstown rivals in as many days. The Sox also picked up Ryan Tepera from the Cubs yesterday. Obviously, adding Kimbrel is a far more impactful development, as the 32-year-old has been arguably the best reliever in baseball over the course of the season.

While the Cubs’ three-year, $43MM free agent investment in Kimbrel originally looked like a misstep, he’s completely turned the tables around in 2021. Through 36 2/3 innings across 39 appearances, the eight-time All-Star has incredibly pitched to a 0.49 ERA/1.83 SIERA. He’s among the top two relievers (minimum 30 innings pitched) in ERA (1st), SIERA (2nd- 1.83) strikeout rate (1st- 46.7%), strikeout/walk rate differential (2nd- 37.2 percentage points). Only his new teammate, Hendriks, bests him in SIERA and K% minus BB%.

The reinvigorated Kimbrel can remain in Chicago through 2022. He’s playing out the final guaranteed season of his contract on a $16MM salary (around $5.6MM of which is still owed) and is controllable next season via $16MM club option. Entering the year, it seemed likely he’d be bought out for $1MM, but that price now looks like a bargain.

Picking up the top reliever on the trade market, as one might expect, came at a hefty price. The White Sox move two players directly off the big league roster, including their starting second baseman for much of the season. Madrigal, a former top five overall pick and highly-regarded prospect, made his big league debut last season. He’s immediately stepped in and performed well, hitting .317/.358/.406 (114 wRC+) over his first 324 big league plate appearances.

Madrigal doesn’t hit for power, but he’s perhaps the game’s best contact hitter. The right-handed hitter has amazingly gone down on strikes in just 7.4% of his plate appearances. That propensity for putting nearly everything into play has led to high enough batting averages to make Madrigal an above-average offensive player despite the lack of extra-base impact. He’s also a capable defensive second baseman, so Madrigal brings value on both sides of the ball.

Unfortunately, Madrigal won’t play again this season. The 24-year-old suffered a significant right hamstring tear in early June. He underwent season-ending surgery shortly thereafter, ending what proved to be his final season with the White Sox. He’s expected to be back to full strength by Spring Training 2022 and would seemingly step in as the Cubs regular second baseman from that point on.

Madrigal didn’t accrue a full year of service time last season, so he’ll be controllable through 2026. He does seem likely to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player after the 2022 season, but he remains a long-term pickup for the Cubs who should solidify the middle of the infield and potentially hit near the top of the order for a few seasons.

Heuer looks likely to jump right into the big league bullpen. The hard-throwing 25-year-old has pitched in the majors for two seasons, tossing 62 1/3 combined innings of relief. Heuer has averaged a blistering 97.1 MPH on his fastball and worked to a 3.75 ERA/3.60 SIERA as a big leaguer, although he’s struggled a bit in 2021 after a fantastic rookie campaign. He’s controllable for the next four seasons, reaching arbitration by 2023.

Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation first reported the White Sox were acquiring Kimbrel. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report that Madrigal and Heuer were going to the Cubs in return.

Giants To Acquire Kris Bryant

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The Giants made a major splash at the trade deadline buzzer, acquiring slugger Kris Bryant from the Cubs for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke news of the trade, while Francys Romero of LasMayores was first on Canario and journalist Marc Delucchi had Kilian.

Drafted second overall in 2013 out of the University of San Diego, Bryant won the 2015 National League Rookie of the Year with the Cubs and followed that with the 2016 NL MVP award as the club finally won a championship.  The Cubs famously waited until April 17th to call Bryant up back in 2015, effectively granting them a seventh year of control over the player by a margin of one day.

Though Bryant would never return to the lofty 6-8 WAR heights of his first three seasons, he settled in comfortably as a 130 wRC+ type bat, with the exception of an injury-marred 34-game 2020 season.  Bryant’s bounceback season was punctuated by his fourth All-Star selection earlier this month.

As early as his sophomore season, the Cubs began deploying Bryant at positions other than his primary spot of third base.  This year, manager David Ross has gotten Bryant at least 80 innings at both corner infield positions as well as all three outfield spots.  Third base makes sense for Bryant in San Francisco, with Evan Longoria out until at least August 6th with a shoulder injury.  Once Longoria returns, Bryant could see time in left field and perhaps center.

The Giants have surprisingly been the best team in baseball this year, and they lead the NL West by a three-game margin over the Dodgers.  Giants President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi may have felt some pressure after the Dodgers completed a blockbuster trade with the Nationals for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner today, also adding Danny Duffy in a deal with the Royals yesterday.  So the Giants have added the big bat of Bryant to an offense that already ranked third in the NL with 4.81 runs scored per game.  The Giants have a front office connection to the Cubs, as GM Scott Harris spent seven years in their baseball operations before joining San Francisco in November 2019.

Cubs fans might be disappointed to see a Bryant trade fail to return a top 100 prospect, but the player’s $19.5MM salary and impending free agency kept teams from overbidding.  Canario, 21, was assigned a 50 grade by MLB.com.  Prior to the season, Baseball America had Canario as a 55, a player with plus raw power but questionable plate discipline and defense.  Canario suffered a torn labrum back in November, but has since posted a .235/.325/.433 line in 274 Low-A plate appearances.  FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gave him a 45 grade, concluding, “He has huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves, but I wonder if the compressed developmental timeline created by his presence on the 40-man and potential lingering effects from the injury might make that tough.”

Kilian, a 24-year-old righty, was promoted from High-A to Double-A back in May.  In 11 starts at that level, he owns a 2.43 ERA, 26.2 K%, and 3.3 BB%.  MLB.com assigned him a 40 grade, noting that “he could develop into a No. 4 starter.”

The Bryant trade was just one part of an extensive fire sale held by Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who also traded Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel, Jake Marisnick, Trevor Williams, Joc Pederson, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin this month.

Tim Dierkes contributed to this post.

Mets Acquire Javier Baez, Trevor Williams

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The Mets and Cubs announced agreement on a deal sending star shortstop Javier Baez to Queens. He’ll be accompanied by right-hander Trevor Williams, with outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong sent back to Chicago in return.

Between landing Francisco Lindor during the offseason and now trading for Baez, the Mets have obtained two of the sport’s best shortstops (who are also great friends with each other) within the span of a few months.  Baez is a free agent after the season, so while this is quite possibly a short-term pickup meant to only help the Mets in 2021, it will nonetheless be a huge boost to New York’s chances of winning the NL East and making a run in October.

The trade ends a very memorable eight-season run for Baez in Wrigleyville, after he was selected with the ninth overall pick of the 2011 draft.  Beginning his career as a free-swinging power bat, Baez’s propensity for striking out never really went away (his 131 whiffs leads the league this year), but he has hit .269/.307/.502 with 116 homers over 2310 PA since the start of the 2017 season.  That includes a huge 2018 season that saw Baez finish second in NL MVP voting, while also winning a Silver Slugger Award.

As accomplished as Baez is at the plate, his defense has become his calling card.  It took Baez until 2020 to capture his first Gold Glove, but his shortstop ability has been celebrated for years, even if he didn’t fully leave second (or even third) base duty until 2019.  Since Lindor has played only as a shortstop at the MLB level, Baez is the likelier of the two to be moved around the diamond as the Mets’ needs develop.

Most of the Mets’ rumors were centered around the team’s search for third base help, though Lindor’s recent placement on the 10-day injured list seemed to expand the search to the shortstop position as well.  Baez can handle short until Lindor is healthy, and could then slide over to play second base or potentially even third base, giving the Mets a clear and immediate upgrade to their infield defense.  Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis are the current first-choice options at second and third base, though either could be moved into the outfield, with McNeil being the more versatile of the two.

Williams will add depth to a Mets rotation that has been thinned by injuries, though once everyone is at full health, Williams is likely to be relegated to bullpen duty.  The 29-year-old right-hander has a 5.06 ERA over 58 2/3 innings for the Cubs this season, and there isn’t much to like about his Statcast metrics.  That said, Williams’ SIERA is a more palatable 4.18, and he has experienced some misfortune — a .343 BABIP, and a .358 wOBA that is far above his .320 xwOBA.

The Baez deal continues a Cubs fire sale that has already seen the likes of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Joc Pederson all dealt. The Mets announced they’ve received an undisclosed amount of cash in the deal. Baez has roughly $3.96MM remaining on his $11.65MM salary for the 2021 season.  The Mets still have some breathing room under the $210MM luxury tax threshold, as only the prorated portion of that $11.65MM counts against their tax number (and the Cubs might are also kicking in some money).

In exchange for Baez and Williams, the Cubs will receive a solid but not quite elite prospect in Crow-Armstrong, who wasn’t listed by either MLB Pipeline (fifth) or Baseball America (sixth) as one of New York’s top four prospects.  Still, Crow-Armstrong was selected 19th overall just last summer, and he began his pro career with a 1.024 OPS over the very small sample size of 32 PA for the Mets’ A-ball affiliate before having to undergo shoulder surgery.

The 19-year-old Crow-Armstrong might already be just about MLB-ready on the defensive front, as he has an excellent throwing arm and speed that makes him a fit as a future center fielder.  As Pipeline’s scouting report simply puts it, “the offensive game will be a work in progress,” as Crow-Armstrong has shown only power potential thus far rather than any real power.  He does make a lot of contact, however, and his speed could be a difference-maker in helping him turn grounders into singles or singles into doubles.

Andy Martino of SNY reported the Mets’ acquisition of Baez. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that New York was also acquiring Williams, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Crow-Armstrong was headed back to Chicago in return. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark initially reported the two sides were making progress on a trade, with The New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweeting that a pitcher might also be involved as part of the negotiations.

Padres Acquire Jake Marisnick From Cubs

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The Padres have acquired outfielder Jake Marisnick from the Cubs, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Righty Anderson Espinoza heads to the Cubs in return, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Marisnick, 30, signed a $1.5MM free agent deal with the Cubs back in February.  He’s got a 95 wRC+ in 144 plate appearances this year.  A right-handed hitter, Marisnick has a 112 wRC+ against lefties in 198 plate appearances from 2019 to present.  Marisnick is known for his center field defense, but seemed to excel more in that area earlier in his career with the Astros.  He’ll supplement a Padres outfield that includes Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, and Jurickson Profar.

The Padres were in the mix for big names at the trade deadline, as always, but they came away with Marisnick, Daniel Hudson, and Adam Frazier after falling short on Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios.

Espinoza, 23, was considered one of the 20 best prospects in baseball prior to the 2016 and ’17 seasons.  Before 2016, Baseball America graded Espinoza as a 70 prospect, writing, “Espinoza’s precocious feel for a high-quality, three-pitch mix and efficient delivery are uncommon traits for a teen, to say the least.”  He was traded from the Red Sox to the Padres in July 2016 for Drew Pomeranz, going down for Tommy John surgery a year later and then again in April 2019.  Espinoza has pitched at High-A this year, remarkably his first pro ball work since 2016 – a gap of four years and eight months.  He’s got a 5.02 ERA, 29.4 K%, and 10.3 BB% in a dozen starts so far.

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