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Cubs Will Reportedly Try Again On Rizzo, Baez Extensions Before Exploring Trades

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The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson to the Braves and are expected to continue selling veteran players in the two weeks leading up to the deadline, but they’ll first take one last effort at hammering out contract extensions with shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Both Rizzo and Baez have been viewed as extension candidates with the Cubs for the past several years, but neither has worked out a deal to remain in Chicago beyond the 2021 campaign. Rizzo is playing out the second of two option seasons that were included on his original  seven-year, $41MM contract with the club.

Chicago unsurprisingly picked up both of those club options, and Rizzo will end up earning a combined $75MM over a nine-year term. The Cubs reportedly offered Rizzo a five-year, $70MM contract extension back in Spring Training — about $60MM less than the Cardinals guaranteed Paul Goldschmidt for the same portion of his career.

As for Baez, he’s playing out his final arbitration year and earning $11.6MM before reaching free agency. The two parties were reported to be progressing in talks on a long-term deal in spring 2020 before the season was shut down.

Neither Rizzo nor Baez is playing at peak levels in 2021, although both have rebounded somewhat from a down year in 2020. Rizzo posted a .222/.342/.412 batting line in 243 plate appearances last year but is up to .247/.342/.429 so far in 2021. His .182 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his lowest mark since 2012, as is his 9.7 percent walk rate. Rizzo’s production this season is still comfortably above the league average, by measure of wRC+ (111), but it’s a far cry from his 2014-19 levels (.284/.388/.513, 141 wRC+). He’ll  turn 32 next month, however, which surely impacts the team’s comfort level both in terms of contract length and annual value.

For Baez, the 2020 season was nightmarish. He batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages as his power dipped to its lowest level since 2016. This year, he’s batting .238/.284/.493 with 21 home runs — some of the best power output of his career. However, Baez’s long-troubling strikeout issues have ballooned to new heights in 2021, as he’s fanned in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances. He remains an excellent defender and won’t turn 29 until the offseason, so there are still several years of Baez’s physical prime left.

Both players are somewhat difficult to value from an extension standpoint at the moment. Rizzo hasn’t bounced all the way back from last year’s downturn in production, and any new contract would be buying out his mid-30s. Baez is younger and enjoying a larger bounceback effort, but his glaring swing-and-miss tendencies and bottom-of-the-scale OBP are difficult to overlook.

The Cubs have tried at various points to lock up both players, and it seems it’ll be even more difficult now to hammer out terms in a two-week window leading up to the trade deadline — particularly when the front office is also dedicating so much time to fielding trade interest in other players on the roster. That’s not to say an extension for either player is out of the question, but the timing isn’t exactly working in their favor. The absence of an extension doesn’t make a trade a foregone conclusion, however; either player would be a candidate for a qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs an opportunity to retain them on a high-priced one-year deal or at least gain a compensatory draft pick should they sign elsewhere.

As notable in Heyman’s report on the likelihood of extension talks with Baez and Rizzo is that it appears no such talks are being planned with star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. The former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is enjoying a more substantial rebound season than either of his two aforementioned teammates and figures to enter the offseason as one of the top free agents on the open market. He’ll draw interest from a wide number of contenders as they look to bolster their lineup over the next 14 days, and the absence of any last-ditch extension talks would seem to indicate an acknowledgement of that ship having sailed.

Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Andrew Chafin are among the likeliest Cubs to change hands in the coming days, and they’ll surely receive interest in veterans Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks as well. Contreras, however, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. Hendricks is signed affordably through the 2023 campaign with an option for 2024. Given that level of remaining club control, there’s less urgency to make a deal involving either player, though that won’t stop other teams from trying to pry them loose.

Cubs Sign First-Round Pick Jordan Wicks

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The Cubs announced this afternoon that they’ve agreed to terms with first-round draft pick Jordan Wicks. Wicks will receive a signing bonus of $3.1323MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s exact slot value for the 21st overall pick, with which Wicks was selected. Wicks is represented by Craig Rose of Paragon Sports International.

In fact, the Cubs have come to terms with nearly all of their top picks, the club announced. Among their draftees in the top ten rounds, only second-rounder James Triantos, a third baseman from a Virginia high school, has yet to put pen to paper.

Wicks is viewed by evaluators as one of the more polished and safer arms in this year’s class. The 21-year-old performed well in all three of his seasons at Kansas State University (and dominated in a four-start cameo in the wood bat Northwoods League last summer). Over the course of his career with the Wildcats, Wicks pitched to a 3.24 ERA across 203 innings, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking just 6.8% of opponents.

The southpaw’s quality three-pitch mix is headlined by perhaps the best changeup in this year’s class. He also draws praise for his ability to command both sides of the plate and throws a 90-94 MPH fastball and a low-mid 80’s slider. Each of Baseball America, Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and Keith Law of the Athletic slotted Wicks among the twenty most talented players in this year’s class, with Longenhagen and Goldstein writing that Wicks “is the surest healthy bet (in the class) to stick in a rotation” aside from top ten picks Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker.

Nationals Have Interest In Kris Bryant

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The Nationals are among the teams with interest in Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). There will certainly be plenty of other suitors for the former NL MVP, who might wind up being the top player traded over the next two weeks.

Indeed, the Nats aren’t the only team in the NL East reportedly looking into a Bryant acquisition. The division-leading Mets were linked to the four-time All-Star last night. On the surface, New York looks to be a more obvious deadline buyer than Washington, who enters tonight’s game with a 42-47 record. In fact, Bryant’s current club is actually a game and a half above the Nats in the Wild Card race.

That said, the Nationals haven’t been shy about trying to make a playoff push when the opportunity presents itself under general manager Mike Rizzo. They’re six games back of the Mets (albeit with the Phillies and Braves also ahead of them) in a division where no teams have separated themselves from the pack. Washington has a difficult three-game series against the Padres this weekend, but that’s followed by dates with the Marlins and Orioles next week, which could give them an opportunity to make up some ground in the standings.

If the Nationals do look to add to the big league roster in the coming weeks, third base is an obvious area to upgrade. Washington has gotten below-average production (.280/.333/.369) at the hot corner over the course of the year, where nearly all of the playing time has gone to Starlin Castro. Castro was placed on administrative leave this afternoon as Major League Baseball investigates domestic violence allegations made against him. Jordy Mercer started at third base tonight in Washington’s first game out of the All-Star Break.

Bryant, of course, would be an upgrade over most teams’ third base situations. The 29-year-old has bounced back from a poor 2020 campaign to hit at an excellent .271/.353/.502 level with sixteen home runs over 329 plate appearances. He’s tailed off after a scorching start to the year, but Bryant’s overall body of work is one of the better ones in the sport.

Of the 231 hitters to accrue 200+ plate appearances in 2021, Bryant is tied for 40th with a 132 wRC+. Relative to last season, he’s drawing more walks, striking out less often and making a higher rate of hard contact. Bryant hasn’t regained the MVP-caliber form he showed early in his career, but his All-Star selection in 2021 was certainly deserved.

The general expectation is that Bryant will wind up on the move between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Cubs president Jed Hoyer suggested last week the team would listen to offers for players on their big league roster on the heels of an 11-game losing streak. They traded outfielder Joc Pederson to the Braves — a team with which the Cubs are ostensibly in competition for a Wild Card berth — for first base prospect Bryce Ball last night. And while Chicago’s reportedly planning to engage in extension talks with first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Báez before the trade deadline, there’s no indication that’s the case with Bryant.

One potential obstacle to a Bryant trade is salary. He signed a $19.5MM deal to avoid arbitration over the winter, approximately $8.3MM of which remains to be paid. The Nationals typically run higher than average payrolls, and their $183MM estimated figure (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) for this season is about $14MM shy of the franchise’s 2019 outlay. That could suggest there’s room on the books for Bryant, although it remains to be seen if ownership’s keen on making such an investment in a team that entered play tonight with a meager 2.8% chance of making the playoffs, in FanGraphs’ estimation.

The other important potential roadblock to a deal that sends Bryant to the nation’s capital is the Nationals’ thin farm system. Certainly, every team in the league could put together a prospect package sufficient to land Bryant, who’ll be a free agent at season’s end. But Heyman hears that the Nats don’t want to trade their top two prospects, right-handed pitchers Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge.

If that’s the case, it could be difficult for the Nationals to beat the market for Bryant. Infielder Yasel Antuna is the only other player in the system who garners a 45 FV ranking or better from Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and he’s hitting .191/.269/.347 in High-A this year. First-round pick Brady House will certainly vault near the top of the organizational rankings once he signs a professional contract, but 2021 draftees can’t be traded until next offseason. Perhaps the Cubs would have interest in former top prospect Carter Kieboom, but his stock has dimmed amidst some struggles at the big league level and he’s currently on the minor league injured list with a knee issue.

It stands to reason more teams will join the Nationals and Mets as having reported interest in Bryant in the coming weeks. The Cubs look primed to be one of the deadline’s most active sellers, and Bryant’s production and laundry list of accolades will make him perhaps the highest-profile player on the trade market.

Braves Acquire Joc Pederson From Cubs

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The Braves and Cubs have swung a notable trade, as outfielder Joc Pederson is on his way to Atlanta in exchange for first base prospect Bryce Ball.  Both teams have announced the trade, and there doesn’t appear to be any money changing hands in the deal.  This means the Braves will absorb all of the approximately $1.84MM remaining of Pederson’s $4.5MM salary for the 2021 season, as well as the $2.5MM buyout of the $10MM mutual option on his services for 2022.

Pederson addresses a clear and obvious need in the outfield for Atlanta after superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. was lost for the season due to a torn ACL.  Pederson has a lot of center field experience over his career, though it is probably more likely that he’ll be deployed mostly as a corner outfielder for the Braves.  With Pederson handling left or right field on a regular basis and Guillermo Heredia getting the bulk of the work in center field, the Braves can toggle between Orlando Arcia, Ehire Adrianza, Ender Inciarte and Abraham Almonte for the other corner spot and as backup options.

Joc PedersonSome type of right-handed hitting option might be necessary as a complement to Pederson, who has a modest .271/.348/.339 slash line in 66 PA against left-handed pitching this season.  His decision to sign a free agent deal with the Cubs last winter was made in part because Chicago offered Pederson a chance to every day rather than in a platoon capacity, and his numbers are still an improvement from his overall career line against left-handed pitching.  The batting average and OBP are at least respectable enough that the Braves might still use Pederson as more or less an everyday player just to plug one outfield hole.

It also possible the Braves could add another outfielder on the trade market, since today’s swap indicates that the club hasn’t conceded anything in the wake of Acuna’s devastating injury.  Atlanta has a 44-45 record but sits just 3.5 games back of the Mets for first place in the NL East.  Since the Braves have a tough schedule between now and the July 30 trade deadline (five games against the Mets, three against the Phillies, and three each against playoff contenders Tampa Bay and San Diego), it also isn’t out of the question that Pederson could be flipped again if the Braves struggle over the next two weeks and decide to sell some pieces.

An above-average bat for most of his seven seasons with the Dodgers, Pederson was also dealt to the Angels in a rather infamously scuttled deal prior to the 2020 campaign, but he remained on L.A.’s blue team long enough to capture a World Series ring.  He posted a .991 OPS over 37 plate appearances during the Dodgers’ postseason run, providing a happy ending after a struggle (.681 OPS in 138 PA) of a regular season.

The Braves had some interest in Pederson as a free agent, but he ended up signing with Chicago, and still hasn’t really gotten himself right at the plate.  Pederson has been a slightly below-average (95 wRC+, 96 OPS+) hitter in 287 total plate appearances this season, hitting .230/.300/.418 with 11 home runs.  All 11 of those homers have come against right-handed pitching, yet while Pederson sought out more playing time against lefties during the winter, the irony is that he has now struggled to hit righties for two straight seasons.  Pederson has only a .218/.285/.442 slash line in 221 PA against righties this year.

The Cubs have a 44-46 record, only a half-game behind the Braves in the standings and yet seemingly a world apart in terms of expectations for the remainder of the 2021 season.  Chicago has won just six of its last 25 games, thanks to a crushing 11-game losing streak that seems to have put them in a seller’s mindset as the deadline approaches.  As a rental player, Pederson was a natural trade chip to be moved, and speculation has swirled for months that such impending free agents (and franchise cornerstones) such as Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo could be on the move by July 30.

Today’s trade could be the first of many for the Cubs over the next two weeks, and the Wrigleyville side has already picked up one interesting minor leaguer in Ball.  A 24th-round pick for Atlanta in the 2019 draft, Ball was a power-heavy prospect who immediately displayed that skill in his first pro season, batting a cumulative .329/.395/.628 with 17 homers over 263 PA with the Braves’ rookie league and A-ball teams in 2019.  It hasn’t been as smooth for Ball this year, however, with only a .207/.354/.396 slash line in 212 PA at high-A ball, including a power dropoff resulting in only six home runs and a big reduction in slugging percentage.

MLB Pipeline ranked Ball as the 12th-best prospect in the Braves’ farm system, so he is more than just a lottery ticket at age 23 if the Cubs development system can sharpen his hitting potential.  For the sake of future trade speculation, Ball isn’t really enough of a premium first base prospect that it would make a Rizzo trade any more likely than it already is, necessarily.  (By that same token, dealing a first base prospect probably also isn’t a hint about Freddie Freeman’s future with the Braves, though Freeman certainly doesn’t look like a trade candidate.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pitching Notes: Kimbrel, Cubs, Braves, Lorenzen, Gray, Astros, MadBum

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The Cubs dealt Joc Pederson to the Braves tonight, though a prominent former Brave wasn’t part of the talks between the two teams, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) reports that Craig Kimbrel’s availability wasn’t discussed.  Kimbrel would obviously have been a major boost for an inconsistent Atlanta bullpen, but Kimbrel is both considerably more expensive than Pederson and the Cubs surely would’ve demanded a much higher prospect return for the All-Star closer.  Acquiring Kimbrel also would have been a clear all-in move for a Braves team that is still only 44-45, and perhaps only in contention by dint of a congested NL East.  It’s possible that Atlanta might still pivot and start selling by the trade deadline if the team sinks further under the .500 mark over the next two weeks.

More on various hurlers around the sport…

  • Kicking off the second half with a big series against the Brewers, the Reds expect to activate Michael Lorenzen and Sonny Gray from the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer writes.  After missing the entire season due to a shoulder strain, Lorenzen will likely be activated prior to Friday’s game, while Gray (rib cage strain) will start Sunday after missing only the minimum 10 days on the IL.  Lorenzen’s return will be welcomed by a Reds bullpen that has struggled all season, while Gray has pitched well despite three separate IL trips that have limited him to 62 innings.  Cincinnati placed reliever Art Warren on the 10-day IL today due to a left oblique strain, but a 40-man roster move will be necessary to reinstate Lorenzen from the 60-day IL.
  • The Astros are “going to entertain the idea of [acquiring] starting pitchers” at the trade deadline, GM James Click told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy are battling sore shoulders, Framber Valdez’s control has been shaky, and Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier might be approaching innings thresholds.  These issues have combined to turn what had been an area of strength for the Astros into a potential concern down the stretch.  On the plus side, relievers Josh James, Austin Pruitt, and Pedro Baez are all on rehab assignments and are expected to be activated from the injured list soon, with James and Pruitt coming perhaps as early as Friday.  That trio and perhaps Garcia could all fortify the bullpen from within, allowing Houston to pursue rotation help.
  • Madison Bumgarner will be activated from the 10-day injured list to start the Diamondbacks’ game with the Cubs on Friday, according to multiple reporters (including The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan).  Bumgarner has been out of action due to shoulder inflammation since June 3, continuing what has thus far been a disastrous tenure in Arizona for the veteran lefty.  Since signing a five-year, $85MM free agent deal in the 2019-20 offseason, Bumgarner has battled injuries and posted only a 6.04 ERA over 101 1/3 innings.  It is very unlikely that a team will come calling about Bumgarner at the deadline given the size of his remaining contract, so the left-hander’s second half will just be about staying healthy and posting some solid numbers as a platform for better things next year.

Mets Interested In Kris Bryant

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Kris Bryant is drawing interest from multiple teams as the trade deadline approaches, with MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reporting that the Mets are one of the clubs considering the former NL MVP.  There isn’t any indication that the Cubs are close to a deal with the Mets or any other team about Bryant, though tonight’s trade of Joc Pederson indicates that the Cubs are indeed open for business with more than two weeks to go before the trade deadline.

This isn’t the first time that Bryant has been linked to the Mets, as Chicago and New York reportedly had discussions involving Bryant during the offseason (though Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said reports of those talks were inaccurate).  Speculatively, if J.D. Davis was indeed discussed as part of a potential trade return and if he is still on the Cubs’ radar, it could be that nothing might get done between the Mets and Cubs about Bryant until Davis makes his expected return from the injured list Friday and shows that he is healthy.  A pair of injuries to Davis’ left hand has limited him to only 14 games this season.

It isn’t a surprise that the Mets (or any contender) would be checking in on Bryant, considering his potential value as a difference-maker for a team in October.  Bryant has rebounded from an injury-plagued 2020 to hit .271/.353/.502 with 16 homers over 329 plate appearances this season, with the caveat that most of that production came within the first two months.  Since June 1, Bryant has only a .568 OPS and four home runs in 117 PA, and his Statcast numbers are solid overall but middling when it comes to hard contact numbers.

With free agency looming this winter, Bryant has plenty of incentive to step up big over the remainder of the season and put himself in good position for a big free agent contract.  Given the trade speculation that has swirled around Bryant for over two years now, it wouldn’t really be surprising to see him take off at the plate if/when he finally did get dealt.

The Mets’ projected luxury tax number is roughly $13.5MM under the $210MM threshold.  Bryant’s remaining salary (he is owed $19.5MM in 2021) would eat up a big chunk of that remaining space and leave the Mets with little wiggle room to make further additions while staying under the threshold, unless some other contracts were moved to the Cubs or in other trades.  That said, Mets owner Steve Cohen has expressed an openness for crossing the tax threshold in the right circumstances, and would seemingly rather blow by the $210MM figure than only exceed it by a small amount.  If Cohen did authorize such a big go-for-it push, the financial aspect of a Bryant trade might not be an issue for the Mets.

On the field, Bryant obviously brings plenty of value to the NL East leaders.  As Heyman notes, Bryant’s ability to play multiple positions (both corner infield spots and all three outfield spots) adds to his value, particularly for a New York team that hasn’t gotten much production and has been looking to solidify third base.

MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

(poll link for app users)

Potential Landing Spots For Craig Kimbrel

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Now that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has more or less officially announced his intention to sell at the trade deadline, contenders looking to acquire some upgrades off the Wrigleyville roster might start with a player whose value seemed negligible heading into last season’s deadine: closer Craig Kimbrel. While the Cubs’ fortunes have dimmed in 2021, Kimbrel is enjoying a fantastic comeback season after a disappointing 2020.

Whether a front office likes traditional stats or modern analytics, Kimbrel has something for everyone. Start with big picture run prevention, and there’s nobody better in the game right now: his 0.57 ERA, 1.12 FIP, and 1.94 xFIP all rank 1st overall among qualified relievers. He’s second behind Matt Barnes by measure of SIERA. Kimbrel’s 46.2% strikeout rate is the top such mark among qualified relievers in the game. He also seems to have figured out the control problems that plagued him the past two seasons, lowering his walk rate to a very reasonable 8.6 percent. If you want to dig even deeper, Kimbrel is among the best in the game by whiff rate, chase rate, and barrel percentage.

The righty is also controllable beyond this season with a $16MM vesting option for 2022 that defaults to a club option (with a $1MM buyout) if it doesn’t vest. Kimbrel isn’t exactly cheap, as he is playing on a $16MM salary for 2021 and will still be owed roughly $5.43MM come July 30, but Hoyer can certainly make the case to other teams that Kimbrel is worth the investment.

There will be a certain class of buyer who prefers to shop in the Ryan Tepera/Andrew Chafin lot rather than pay sticker price for Kimbrel. To their point, relievers are historically fungible and fickle, and there are always relievers to be had at the trade deadline. But, bullpen arms don’t grow on trees, and there’s not a contender in the game that couldn’t find a use for Kimbrel.

In fact, it’s probably a simpler task to identify those contenders who won’t have interest in Kimbrel. The Rays, for example, already count their bullpen as a strength, and Kimbrel is a little flashy and/or expensive for their taste. The Nationals — as much as they could use him — would probably have to surrender too great a share of their limited prospect capital to get him.

The Brewers likely consider themselves set with Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brent Suter – and it’s a little hard to fathom Chicago handing Kimbrel to the team that appears to have bested them for the division. The Reds could use him, but after shedding bullpen money last winter, it’s a little counterintuitive to think they’d be ready for an addition like Kimbrel just a few months later. Frankly, the Cubs probably don’t have a trade moratorium with their NL Central comrades (except maybe the Cardinals), but they might require a premium. The Brewers and Reds don’t have the need or inclination, respectively, to pay that tax.

The Pirates and Diamondbacks of the world won’t be calling anytime soon, and the Yankees, for all their recent trouble closing out games of late, look more likely to trade away a closer than acquire one.

The White Sox and Cubs aren’t exactly regular trade partners, but Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune suggests the crosstown rivals might be a fit for a Kimbrel deal. Putting Kimbrel in the Sox bullpen with the likes of Liam Hendriks, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Aaron Bummer would certainly blow some hats off, and it would give manager Tony La Russa a strong insurance plan against almost any potential injury for a group with some injury risk. But the Southsiders gave Hendriks $54MM to close games, and it’s a little hard to fathom the active saves leader embracing second chair.

Sullivan also puts the Astros and A’s at the top of the list of suitors. Both make some sense, though the Astros might be in a similar place as the ChiSox, given Ryan Pressly’s All-Star campaign. Oakland’s Lou Trivino has performed well in taking the bulk of closer duties since Trevor Rosenthal has been lost for the year, but Trivino could probably step back into a setup role just as easily.

Besides, the Cubs and A’s have done business before as trade partners. Most notably, Hoyer was the Cubs’ GM in July 2014 when they packaged Jeff Samardzija with Jason Hammel to net top prospect Addison Russell along with Billy McKinney and Dan Straily. Speculatively speaking, if the Cubs were serious about moving Javier Baez, the A’s could certainly use a shortstop upgrade, and the two clubs could try again to pair multiple assets together in this kind of deal, though the financial cost for even one of Kimbrel or Baez might not be palatable for the small-market Athletics.

The Phillies have the most obvious need with a 4.78 bullpen ERA and league-leading 22 blown saves. It’s not clear, however, how serious the Phillies are as contenders, currently a game under .500 and 4.5 games behind the Mets for the division and slim odds at a wild card spot. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski certainly knows Kimbrel well from his time running the Red Sox, and he was also the executive at the wheel when Boston let Kimbrel walk in free agency.

The Dodgers have blown 17 saves, and though Kenley Jansen has looked better than expected, they’ve suffered some significant losses from their pitching staff. Their starting pitching has taken a few hits over the course of the season, most recently with Clayton Kershaw landing on the injured list. One way to counteract that depleted rotation depth would be to bolster the bullpen, and there’s no better arm available than Kimbrel.

Padres’ GM A.J. Preller traded for Kimbrel once before, and if he thinks the Dodgers might be inquiring, he very well could be interesting in trading for him again. Preller also traded him away once before, but that was hardly an indictment of Kimbrel. The present-day Padres have suffered enough injury woes to know that there is no such thing as enough pitching depth. They are, however, leading the league with a 2.86 bullpen ERA, and Mark Melancon is a trusted veteran hand with 27 saves in 31 opportunities. It’s not their greatest need, but the Padres are all in on 2021, and as of right now, they’re staring down a one-game playoff with the Giants or Dodgers.

And why not, the Giants might throw their hats in the ring as well. Kimbrel would certainly fit with the Giants’ veteran-laden roster. He’d also offer some consistency and personality to a bullpen that currently splits closing opportunities between Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers. San Francisco’s bullpen has been good with a collective 3.42 ERA, but they have blown 16 save opportunities.

Moving back to the American League, the Blue Jays certainly qualify as a team to watch. Like the A’s, their Plan A, Kirby Yates, crumbled before the season even began, while depth options like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, and Julian Merryweather have all spent time on the injured list. Even nine games out of first in the AL East, the Jays are committed to contention, and they need all the help they can get on that end.

Hoyer and the Cubs may feel the urgency to jump the trade market for Kimbrel while his value remains at this peak level. In 33 appearances covering 31 2/3 innings, Kimbrel has been worth 2.0 rWAR/1.8 fWAR. He’s converted 20 saves in 22 tries with that absolutely shimmering 0.57 ERA. Those numbers aren’t likely to get much better, and given the relatively small sample inherent to a reliever’s workload, one bad outing could suddenly make Kimbrel appear mortal again.

Bottom line, Kimbrel is one of if not the best reliever in the game right now, and he’s available. For an aggressive contender, he’s likely available now.

Cubs Activate Ryan Tepera, Place Brad Wieck On Injured List

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Prior to this afternoon’s game against the Cardinals, the Cubs reinstated reliever Ryan Tepera from the 10-day injured list. Bullpen mate Brad Wieck was placed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to July 7, with an irregular heartbeat. Additionally, the Cubs recalled southpaw Kyle Ryan from Triple-A Iowa and optioned righty Cory Abbott.

Tepera landed on the IL due to a calf strain in late April, interrupting what has been a quality season. The veteran right-hander has worked to a 3.35 ERA/3.32 SIERA over 37 2/3 innings, holding fourteen leads as a high-leverage option for manager David Ross. Tepera has backed that solid run prevention up with quality peripherals. He’s punched out an above-average 28.3% of batters faced while walking just 8.3% and inducing groundballs at a decent 47.7% clip.

It’s the second straight season of strong work for Tepera, who joined the Cubs entering 2020 after five years with the Blue Jays. Since signing with Chicago, he’s tossed 58 1/3 frames of 3.55 ERA ball with a very strong 30.8% strikeout percentage. More impressively, Tepera has racked up swings and misses on 17.4% of his pitches over the past two seasons. That’s the eighth-highest swinging strike rate among the 282 hurlers with at least 50 innings pitched (behind only Jacob deGrom, Raisel Iglesias, Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks, Edwin Díaz and Trevor May).

That kind of bat-missing capability is sure to attract interest from bullpen-needy contenders. The Cubs now look like deadline sellers after a horrible two weeks of play. Tepera’s on a modest $800K guarantee and is scheduled to reach free agency at the end of the year. Few relievers on the trade market can match that combination of productivity and affordability, and his lack of long-term control means he’s likely to wind up on the move in the coming weeks.

It stands to reason that contenders would inquire about Wieck if he were healthy as well. He’s been unscored upon across 17 innings this year while punching batters out at a massive 39.4% clip. Wieck has been prone to walks (14.1%) but it’s still been a strong effort nonetheless.

The Cubs didn’t provide a timetable for his return, but the diagnosis of an abnormal heartbeat is especially concerning given Wieck’s personal history. The left-hander underwent a cardiac ablation procedure in February 2020 after a routine physical turned up an atrial flutter. Given the sensitivity of the diagnosis, Wieck’s personal health is obviously paramount to any on-field concerns. Fortunately, he did return from his surgery to make it back to the mound last year (before suffering an unrelated hamstring injury).

Cubs’ Recent Losing Streak Changes Trade Deadline Outlook

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A couple weeks ago, the Cubs had positioned themselves as likely buyers during trade season. As recently as June 24, Chicago was tied with the Brewers atop the NL Central, nine games over .500. The past two weeks have been an unmitigated disaster for the North Siders, though.

Between June 25 and July 7, the Cubs lost eleven consecutive games. They snapped that streak with a win over the Phillies last night, but Chicago enters tonight’s matchup against Philadelphia with an uninspiring 43-44 record. The Brewers, meanwhile, have rattled off a 10-3 stretch over that time, opening up an 8.5 game lead on Chicago within a 14-day span. (The 45-41 Reds have also since passed the Cubs to jump into second place in the division). Chicago isn’t a whole lot closer in the Wild Card race, trailing the Padres by seven games (with Cincinnati and the Nationals also above them in the standings).

An eleven game losing streak can certainly tank a team’s season, and it seems it might’ve in the Cubs’ case. On June 24, FanGraphs gave Chicago a 35.7% chance of making the playoffs; entering play today, their odds were down to 6.4%.

With a playoff berth all of a sudden seeming highly unlikely, the calculus for the Cubs front office changes considerably, a fact that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged this evening. Speaking with reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago), Hoyer sounded far more willing to move players off the big league roster than he’d been a couple weeks ago.

“Eleven days ago, we were certainly fully on the buying side … and obviously (teams) are now calling to see which players are available,” Hoyer said. “So it’s a very different scenario than we’d expected. Life comes at you fast.” Asked whether the front office is willing to make players available, Hoyer noted their responsibility to consider anything “that can help build the next great Cubs team,” citing their aforementioned dwindling playoff odds.

The implications for the Cubs are obvious. Three of their highest-profile players — Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo — are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season. If the team isn’t contending in 2021, it stands to reason any or all of them could find themselves on the move over the next few weeks.

Certainly, there’d be plenty of interest in every member of that group. Bryant has bounced back from a disappointing 2020 to hit a very strong .269/.349/.498 with sixteen home runs over 324 plate appearances this year. He’s making far more consistent hard contact and barreling balls up at a rate he hasn’t since his MVP peak. Bryant’s production has tailed off after he got out to a scorching start to the year, but his combination of excellent season-long numbers and overall track record would make him perhaps the top player on the trade market were the Cubs to make him available.

Rizzo’s .250/.343/.439 line is down rather significantly from his best seasons. It’s still above-average offensive production, though, and he continues to offer a rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and hard contact (to say nothing of quality defensive marks at first base). Báez has struck out at an alarming 36.6% clip this year en route to a .234 batting average and a .282 on-base percentage. But he’s also popped 21 home runs and slugged .496, and he’s a comfortably above-average defender and baserunner.

Between their career accolades, key roles on the 2016 World Series team, and impending free agencies, that trio figures to draw the most fanfare in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. They’re far from the only players on whose availability other teams might inquire, though. Zach Davies, Joc Pederson and Jake Marisnick are useful players set to reach free agency this winter. (Marisnick has a mutual option for 2022, but mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties).

Willson Contreras, controllable via arbitration through 2022, is one of the game’s best catchers and was the subject of trade discussion last offseason. Closer Craig Kimbrel is having an incredible bounceback campaign, pitching to a 0.57 ERA with a 46.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage after struggling mightily between 2019-20. Kimbrel’s $16MM salary for 2021 now looks more than reasonable, as does the matching option on his contract for 2022.

Certainly, it’d be a surprise to see all of those players change teams in the next few weeks. Hoyer pushed back against the idea the Cubs were planning to kick off any sort of full-on rebuild, even as he acknowledged that the 2022 roster will look different from the current iteration. He also noted there’s still some possibility — slim as it now seems — the team plays its way back into contention over the coming weeks.

The Cubs have eighteen more games before the deadline. After facing the Phils tonight, their slate through July 29 consists of seven games against the Cardinals, six against the lowly Diamondbacks, and four against the Reds, one of the teams they’ll need to leapfrog for a postseason spot.

Winning thirteen or fourteen of those contests might get the Cubs sufficiently close to the postseason picture that the front office decides not to orchestrate a sell-off. The core of the current club has been pivotal to arguably the franchise’s most successful five-year run in over a century. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hoyer and his front office give the group as long a leash as possible this summer to try to play their way back into the mix.

Nevertheless, the most likely scenario is that the club’s dreadful past two weeks dug them a hole too deep to come back from. That’s an inescapable reality Hoyer acknowledged this afternoon, one that may result in a few of the franchise’s most important players of recent memory donning new uniforms in a few weeks’ time.

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