Trade Rumors: Rangers, Smith, Lowrie, Blue Jays, Frazier, Cubs
The Athletics aren’t the only AL West team interested in Jed Lowrie‘s services, as the Rangers have been in talks with the Mets about a deal that would send both Lowrie and Dominic Smith to the Lone Star State, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required). However, “talks to this point have failed to progress” between the two clubs. It’s fair to guess that Smith was the Rangers’ real target in these negotiations, as Smith would be the sweetener added to the deal in exchange for the Rangers assuming most or all of the remaining $12MM on Lowrie’s contract. New York is reportedly trying to create payroll space by shopping high-priced names like Lowrie or Jeurys Familia to other teams.
Smith is perhaps a bit of a curious fit for the Rangers, given that Texas already has a plethora of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield types, and only just dealt from that surplus in sending Nomar Mazara to the White Sox. Still, adding a 24-year-old with five seasons of control has obvious value for the Rangers, as Shin-Soo Choo‘s contract is up after the 2020 campaign, and Ronald Guzman could become expendable in the event of Smith joining the roster. While Lowrie missed virtually all of 2019 due to injury, he also offers more to Texas than just a salary dump if he’s able to stay healthy. If Lowrie was able to recapture anything close to his 2017-18 form, he’d represent a good third base answer if the Rangers weren’t able to sign Josh Donaldson.
More trade talk as we near the end of the Winter Meetings…
- Though the Blue Jays have been mostly linked to free agents this winter, the club is apparently being just as diligent on the trade front, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. In addition to Toronto’s known interest in Yankees southpaw J.A. Happ, the Jays have checked in with the Red Sox about David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr., and with the Pirates about right-hander Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove. It doesn’t seem like any of these particular options are close, however, as Davidi notes that “the cost in both dollars and prospect capital remains too high” for Price, Bradley, and Happ. The Jays and Pirates have been speculatively linked as trade partners since Ben Cherington recently went from Toronto’s front office to the GM chair in Pittsburgh, though this familiarity may not necessarily be a plus. As Davidi puts it, Cherington “may think too similarly to his former colleagues for a deal to be struck.”
- As the Pirates weigh a lot of interest in Adam Frazier, the Athletics are involved but perhaps no better than Pittsburgh’s third option as a trade partner, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports (Twitter link). The left-handed hitting Frazier would be an ideal fit to help balance out Oakland’s heavily right-handed lineup, and would provide some experience to a young collection of second base candidates. Frazier isn’t old himself (he is a few days away from his 28th birthday) and is still controllable through three years of arbitration eligibility.
- While the Cubs are reportedly working hard towards swinging some (potentially major) trades, the possibility exists that the 2020 roster will look a lot like last year’s edition, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other media. “The makings of a very good team is currently under control on our roster, with a chance to win a division. And do that, and you have a chance to have a great October,” Epstein said, though “status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.” It could be that the Cubs won’t become big players in the trade market until most or all of the top free agents have selected their new teams. In the case of Kris Bryant, for example, “officials from two teams aggressively trying to fill third-base needs…said the Cubs were asking too much for Bryant to seriously consider him while other options remained available,” Wittenmyer writes.
Third Base Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Bryant, Nats, Castro, Franco
Now that Anthony Rendon has signed with the Angels, Josh Donaldson is both the top third baseman remaining on the open market and quite possibly the top free agent still available at any position. There was already enough interest in Donaldson that he was reportedly looking more and more likely to receive a four-year commitment, which is good news for a player who “is seeking the largest possible guarantee” in his next contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).
The star third baseman just turned 34 this week and, since his injury-plagued 2018 season already cost him his first chance at a big multi-year free agent deal last winter, it isn’t surprising that Donaldson wants to max out his payday now that he is coming off an outstanding 2019 campaign. Rosenthal hears that “all things being equal, Donaldson’s preference is to return to the Braves,” though if it comes down to a pure bidding war, Atlanta doesn’t seem to have the available payroll to outspend Donaldson suitors like the Dodgers, Rangers, Twins, or Nationals.
The Braves have already spread some significant cash around this winter, adding free agents Cole Hamels, Will Smith, and Travis d’Arnaud while re-signing Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, and Darren O’Day. As per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, Atlanta is set to spend just under $142.2MM on player salaries next season, which would be the largest payroll in franchise history. $142.2MM is a modest number compared to what most contending teams spend, though since there has long been speculation about how much money the Liberty Media ownership group would be willing to allocate to payroll, adding another major contract to the books (Donaldson’s next deal could well be in the area of $25MM in average annual value) might not be feasible, unless other salaries were cut loose.
If Atlanta misses out on Donaldson, they might need to get creative in adding another big bat to their lineup. Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Braves could look to Marcell Ozuna, though Rosenthal notes that “they currently have only limited interest” in Ozuna’s services. As for another big third base target in the Cubs‘ Kris Bryant, Rosenthal notes that Atlanta is among the clubs who have concerns about Bryant’s declining glovework (as per UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved) over the last few seasons. This doesn’t necessarily rule out a potential trade between the Braves and Cubs since Bryant could be used as a corner outfielder, though it doesn’t seem like Bryant is at the top of the Braves’ list at this point.
Speaking of fallback options for Donaldson, Rosenthal writes that Starlin Castro and Maikel Franco are on the Nationals‘ radar as third base candidates. Washington has gotten long looks at both players from their days in the NL East, though both Castro and Franco would certainly be stopgap options at best given their underwhelming performances over the last few seasons. Castro has been a slightly below-average run producer (98 OPS+ and wRC+) since the start of the 2016 campaign, while Franco hasn’t lived up his billing as one of baseball’s top prospects, hitting only .249/.302/.431 over 2539 career PA with the Phillies.
In terms of bigger-ticket additions at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the Nationals have yet to touch base with the Cubs about Bryant, contrary to earlier reports. This isn’t to say that the Nats couldn’t still look into Bryant should Donaldson sign with another team.
Cubs Will Not Explore Anthony Rizzo Extension This Offseason
TODAY: Cubs GM Jed Hoyer discussed the situation with David Kaplan on Sports Talk Live (NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki has a partial transcript) today, saying that the two sides held “some conceptual talks about what an extension would look like and I think that, candidly, we were pretty far apart in terms of length and so he [Pollack] decided to come out and say that.” Hoyer also noted these negotiations were in the very early stages, and that “there’s nothing that’s been done that’s going to stop future conversations.”
YESTERDAY: The Cubs have decided against pursuing an extension with first baseman Anthony Rizzo this offseason, agent Marc Pollack tells Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. Whether future contract talks will take place is an open question.
Rizzo is entering his second-to-last season of team control under his original extension. That deal has worked out swimmingly for the Chicago organization, which is paying Rizzo $14.5MM this season with another option remaining at the same price (with a $2MM buyout as the alternative).
It seems that Rizzo instructed his rep to broach the possibility of another contract that would keep him locked in at first base for many more years to come. That interest was rebuffed.
“Anthony has let his desire to be a Cub for life known to the organization,” says Pollack. “Although we do not know what the future holds, a deal to make that happen will not be addressed now.”
The 30-year-old Rizzo evidently isn’t seen as a desirable target despite another exceptional campaign at the plate. He slashed a robust .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 2019 and has steadily produced big numbers since a breakout 2014 effort.
The Chicago organization is in an interesting position after carrying a big payroll for several seasons and wrapping up a costlier-than-expected Wrigley Field renovation project. While many would argue that further outlay is warranted, the club has again given signals that it will keep a tight hold on the purse this winter.
That said, the Cubs have expressed interest in pursuing some long-term deals. Rogers says that Kyle Schwarber also hasn’t yet been approached. Kris Bryant is all but certainly a non-starter. Whether Willson Contreras could be pursued isn’t known, but the team has discussed him in trade scenarios. It seems infielder Javier Baez is the likeliest candidate to be locked up at some point in the offseason.
NL West Rumors: Padres, Marte, D-backs, MadBum, Rox, Marquez
Continuing an active winter in the San Diego outfield, the Padres have joined the race to acquire Pirates center fielder Starling Marte, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The Padres have already shuffled around their outfield quite a bit this offseason, having added two players (Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham) and subtracted another (Hunter Renfroe). They could get rid of at least one more if a team takes Wil Myers off their hands. The Padres at least tried to pawn Myers off on his first professional team – the Royals – in the clubs’ talks centering on utilityman Whit Merrifield, but KC didn’t bite, according to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report.
More rumblings from the NL West…
- The Diamondbacks “floated” a proposal to Madison Bumgarner that would have promised him something in the realm of $70MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. That falls in line with MLBTR’s $72MM prediction (over four years) for Bumgarner, but the highly accomplished 30-year-old has his eyes fixed on a much richer contract. The longtime Giant’s reportedly aiming for a payday in the $100MM range.
- Teams have inquired about Rockies right-hander German Marquez, but they haven’t shown any willingness to trade him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. It’s neither surprising that other teams covet the strikeout-heavy Marquez nor that the Rockies want to keep him. Before last season, they signed the 24-year-old to a club-friendly extension – one that will see him earn a guaranteed $40.5MM from 2020-23 (including a $2.5MM buyout in ’24).
- Back in late September, the Padres and lights-out closer Kirby Yates were reportedly discussing an extension. No new deal has come together since, but it appears the two sides will at least make an effort to hammer something out. In regards to a potential extension, Yates told Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune: “I’m always interested. It’s not up to me. When you get to that point, you have the discussions.” Likewise, the Padres are open to it. The club will “start talking to Kirby about his situation for next year” later this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller revealed. The 32-year-old Yates has just one remaining season of arbitration control, in which he’s projected to earn a bargain salary of $6.5MM.
- The Diamondbacks were already known to have interest free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, and GM Mike Hazen revealed they met with the Japanese standout on Tuesday, per Piecoro. The Cubs also met with Akiyama’s representatives.
KBO Notes: Kelly, Wilson, Raley
Though it seemed for awhile like Casey Kelly was drawing enough interest to warrant a return to the states, the right-hander has instead re-upped for another season in the KBO. Kelly signed back with the LG Twins for $1.5MM, which includes $300K in incentives, per Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. Kelly is most famous for his time as a prospect in the Red Sox system. He was eventually dealt to San Diego in a 2011 blockbuster which also featured Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo. Kelly never broke out with the Padres, thanks in part to 2013 Tommy John surgery, which kept him off the hill for the entire season. Kelly ended up accruing a mere 40 1/3 innings with the Padres in parts of two seasons (2012 and ’15), and later combined for another 45 1/3 between the Braves (2016) and Giants (2018). The 30-year-old Kelly has done rather well for himself overseas, going 14-12 last season with a 2.55 ERA across 180 1/3 innings as a starter for the LG Twins.
- Tyler Wilson will also return to the KBO’s Twins for another season, per Kurtz. 2020 will mark Wilson’s third season with the Twins, for whom he put together solid back-to-back seasons. Coming off a 14-7 year with a 2.92 ERA in 185 innings, Wilson has signed for $1.6MM, including $200K in incentives. The 30-year-old Virginian appeared with the Orioles for parts of three seasons from 2015 to 2017.
- Coming the other way, southpaw Brooks Raley could be on his way back after five seasons with the Lotte Giants in Korea, tweets Jon Morosi of Fox Sports. Raley was once a Cubs farmhand who broke into the majors for five starts in 2012. He also saw limited action for Chicago the following season, though totaling just 38 1/3 innings and a 7.04 ERA across those two seasons. The Cubs made Raley a 6th round draft choice in 2009 out of Texas A&M. The Minnesota Twins claimed him off waivers, but the Angels claimed him not long after. Raley never appeared at the big league level for either squad. Morosi notes that the 31-year-old Texan is drawing interest from big league clubs now, though which teams were not specified.
Latest On Kris Bryant
The Cubs have reportedly been in fervent pursuit of trade possibilities, exploring deals involving much of their roster — including Kris Bryant. There are some wrinkles to structuring a deal for the superstar third baseman, as well as some new market developments of note. In particular, the Nationals have approached the Cubs to discuss Bryant, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
The Cubs are still awaiting resolution on a service-time grievance filed by Bryant and his representatives, despite the fact that a hearing was held in late October. Speaking to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said he felt the ruling is “not going to be more than a couple weeks away,” though he admitted some frustration that the matter has yet to be decided.
That said, Epstein stated the team is “operating with what our understanding of what the likely outcome will be and moving forward that way,” which would hint that the Cubs are confident that Bryant will remain under team control through the 2021 season. A ruling in the other direction, which would grant Bryant free agency after the 2020 season, would certainly count as a surprise, and one with a major impact on Chicago’s future roster maneuverings.
Needless to say, the length of Bryant’s remaining service time would have a giant impact on what the Wrigleyville side would receive back in a trade, though the third base market joins the delayed grievance ruling as the biggest factors in any trade plans the Cubs might have for Bryant. Sharma notes that the Cubs are figuring that teams who miss out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson could come calling about Bryant, which would leave Chicago discussing Bryant with at least three of such teams as the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Phillies, and Nationals. Of that group, the Cubs would most likely be interested in the prospect-deep Atlanta or Los Angeles farm systems. Sharma also wonders if Chicago could also shop Bryant to the Padres (another club with a stacked farm system) as an outfielder, since San Diego is set at the corner infield spots with Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer.
In terms of specific potential landing spots, it seems we’re mostly dealing with informed speculation and hypotheticals. But we’re also beginning to see indications of actual trade talks. The Nationals’ reported expression of interest is certainly intriguing, though it may be difficult for the D.C. organization to structure a deal. The club is not ruling out a return from Rendon and has also shown interest in Donaldson. But adding another monster deal to bring back Rendon would be tough to do. And Donaldson is said to be heading for a fourth guaranteed year with widespread interest. Under the circumstances, the Nats are surely not the only team to have made contact regarding Bryant. Jon Heyman of MLB Network noted yesterday on Twitter that the Braves and Phillies “could be a fit,” though it’s not clear whether that suggestive phrasing was indicative of dialogue between the organizations.
Cubs Have Had Discussions With Josh Lindblom
The Chicago Cubs have been in contact with free agent right-hander Josh Lindblom, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via twitter).
The possibility of a signing seems far fetched, however, as Morosi notes that other teams are further along in their discussions with Lindblom at this point. Not to mention, of course, the Cubs are notably frugal these days, making a quick strike signing for Lindblom unlikely. There is some interest on the Cubs’ part, however, and one would think Lindblom – an Indiana native – would be intrigued by the possibility of calling Wrigley Field home.
Though he’s not exactly among the most sought after nor bankable free agent arms on the market, Lindblom does come with an intriguing amount of upside after an MVP season in the Korean Baseball Organization. He was a 20-game winner in the KBO with a 2.50 ERA in 194 2/3 innings, this on the heels of a 15-4 season that carried a 2.88 ERA in 168 2/3 innings. That said, Lindblom is set to turn 33 in June, and his major league career prior to his success in the KBO consisted of a series of fly-by-night affairs. From 2011 until 2017, Lindblom suited up for the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, A’s, and Pirates. He did manage a palatable 4.10 ERA/4.27 FIP in 147 innings spread across five seasons.
There are a number of pitchers ahead of Lindblom in the free agent pecking order, but there’s enough need league-wide that he should have no trouble finding a home. MLBTR predicted he would secure a two-year, $8MM contract with the Astros, Brewers, Dodgers, Twins, Cubs and Angels all seeming like viable fits. Considering the scuttlebutt coming out of Chicago, however, even that modest commitment might be too rich for the Cubs until they shed some payroll.
Cubs Reportedly Signaling Need To Clear Payroll
President Theo Epstein and his cohort have been decidedly mum on the Cubs’ payroll outlook this offseason, with the trade market looking like the club’s likeliest route toward improving a roster that went 84-78 last season. Now, a report is indicating the Cubs are rebuking even “low-budget” free agents due to payroll concerns, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pouring cold water on the free agency hopes of north side fans.
On the subject of a potential reunion with 2019 standout Nicholas Castellanos, Rosenthal had this to say: “Not a chance, at least for the moment. Club officials are telling representatives of even low-budget free agents that they need to clear money before engaging in serious negotiations.”
While that likely feels like a bit of a gut punch for Chicago fans, it makes some sense that Epstein and Co. would make a reduction on their estimated $210MM luxury tax payroll a priority. The Cubs were one of three teams to exceed the tax in 2019, and, while our Offseason Outlook noted that the team only stood to pay a $6.34MM penalty for that infraction, a club can’t be blamed for trying to exercise some fiduciary responsibility.
Still, the idea that even “low-budget” signings would be out of their range likely registers as a disappointment, for the moment. As currently constructed, the Cubs project to enter 2019 with Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester in the rotation, which, at first glance, doesn’t project as quite a first-division group. Elsewhere, the outfield figures to need some remodeling. Castellanos’ mid-season acquisition helped cover for a circumspect downturn by Albert Almora–allowing Castellanos to walk would seem to again require a full-time split for Almora and Ian Happ, two players who, despite some positive attributes, carry a fair amount of risk. The bullpen, meanwhile, arguably calls for improvement at every level.
Obviously, added support to the notion that the Cubs are space-strapped this winter only makes a trade feel all the more inevitable. Kris Bryant stands out as a ready-made palliative to whichever team is sore from losing out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson. Willson Contreras would project as easily the most marketable catcher on the trade market. Maybe Happ himself could be seen as a viable target for teams in need of a flex outfielder? After the cutting loose of Addison Russell this winter, any of those moves would further signal that the youth movement the club relied upon in its World Series run has begun to shift into a transitional phase.
Mets Re-Sign Brad Brach
2:55pm: Brach’s signing has been announced. The club designated righty Chris Flexen for assignment to create roster space.
1:13pm: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Brad Brach, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s said to be promised a $850K salary for the 2020 season (on top of the $500K he’s already owed by the Cubs). Brach is a client of Big League Management.
While the single-season earnings are relatively modest, the deal does include a $1.25MM player option that provides a backstop for the 33-year-old reliever. The price tag goes up based upon the number of games he appears in. ($125K at 20 games; $350K apiece upon his 30th, 35th, 40th, 50th, 60th, and 65th appearances.) There are incentives in both years of the contract, also tied to appearances (beginning with his 50th).
Brach has deep ties to the area, having grown up and played his college ball in New Jersey. It was seen as something of a homecoming when he landed in Queens in the middle of the 2019 season. As I noted in previewing the Mets’ offseason, it seemed sensible to imagine a reunion.
Both team and player obviously enjoyed the experience. For the second-straight season, Brach turned around suboptimal results after swapping jerseys in the middle of the year. In 39 2/3 innings with the Cubs, Brach limped to a 6.13 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and an alarming 6.4 BB/9. But with the Mets, he allowed six earned runs in 14 2/3 frames while posting a strong 15:3 K/BB ratio.
What changed? Brach was pumping his customary 95 mph for most of his tenure in Chicago and continued upon moving to New York. But there was some chatter that Brach had been tipping his changeup. And pitch-tracking software identified a major shift in usage in favor of a cut fastball. The new approach worked, at least in a short sample.
For the Mets, this move plugs one bullpen opening with a known quantity who has late-inning experience. Brach is now a few years removed from his best years in Baltimore, but this seems like a nice price tag for the veteran. The Mets will still need to look for creative ways of boosting their relief unit.
Cubs Sign Dan Winkler
2:42pm: The deal has now been announced.
10:09am: Winkler agreed to a split Major League contract with a $750K salary in the Majors and a $200K salary in the minors, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). He can earn an additional $750K in the Majors via incentives.
8:20am: The Cubs and free-agent righty Dan Winkler are in agreement on a one-year, Major League contract, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). The MVP Sports Group client elected free agency at season’s end after being outrighted off the Giants’ 40-man roster.
Winkler, 30 in February, was one of the players sent from Atlanta to San Francisco in the Mark Melancon salary dump. He lasted only a day on the Giants’ 40-man roster, though, further underscoring that the trade was primarily a financially motivated transaction.
But while Winkler struggled through 21 2/3 innings at the MLB level in 2019 (4.98 ERA, 22-to-11 K/BB ratio), he was a very effective bullpen piece with the Braves just a year prior. In 2018, Winkler returned from a grueling injury absence to post 60 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball with 10.3 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
Winkler had previously gone down to Tommy John surgery in 2014 and, upon returning to the mound in 2016, sustained another gut-wrenching injury when he (audibly) fractured his elbow while throwing a pitch. From 2015-17, he totaled just 41 1/3 innings between the big leagues and the minors thanks to those injuries, but the right-hander is seemingly healthy now. In addition to his work in the Majors last year, Winkler tossed 30 2/3 innings in Triple-A (with a 2.93 ERA, 29 strikeouts and a troubling 23 walks).
If Winkler is able to return to form with his new team, the Cubs will be able to control him through the 2021 season via arbitration. He also has minor league options remaining, so the Cubs can shuttle him back and forth between Triple-A Iowa and Chicago on an as-needed basis if he doesn’t solidify his spot in the ‘pen from the outset.