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Rosenthal’s Latest: Ausmus, Gonzalez, Hendricks

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video for FOX Sports:

  • Departing Tigers manager Brad Ausmus says he would be open to managing a new team immediately, although he tells Rosenthal that there don’t seem likely to be many possibilities. Rosenthal, though, points out several, including the Phillies job as well as the Mets job, which is expected to open. The Braves could also be a possibility, and Rosenthal notes that if the Red Sox have a quick playoff exit and opt to part with John Farrell, Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hired Ausmus while he was an executive in Detroit.
  • Fredi Gonzalez looks to have many qualifications that could be attractive to the Tigers, including past managerial experience with a rebuilding club (the Marlins) and connections to Tigers GM Al Avila (with whom he worked while both were in the Marlins organization). The Tigers will, however, consider any number of other candidates. One they might not consider too carefully is Giants third base coach Phil Nevin, who the Tigers fired as their Triple-A manager near the end of the 2013 season.
  • Astros utilityman Marwin Gonzalez could be a free agent to watch in the 2018-19 offseason, Rosenthal argues. Like Ben Zobrist, who received a $56MM deal two years ago, Gonzalez switch-hits and can play several positions in the infield and outfield. Gonzalez is also reaching the end of an outstanding .303/.375/.530 season. I might point out that Gonzalez doesn’t have Zobrist’s overall track record, but Rosenthal notes that Gonzalez will have only recently turned 30 at the start of the 2019 season, and that unlike Zobrist, he can play shortstop.
  • Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks’ first-year arbitration case this offseason will be an interesting one, says Rosenthal. Hendricks has a 2.94 ERA over 100 career games, a number that compares favorably to that of Clayton Kershaw in his first few seasons. that isn’t to say Hendricks and Kershaw are similar players, as Rosenthal points out, only that Hendricks’ first arbitration payday could be a hefty one.

Quick Hits: Lackey, Lynn, Nicasio, Hundley

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The Cubs’ clubhouse celebration after clinching the NL Central included some telling comments from Jon Lester, who proclaimed that John Lackey had made “probably his last regular-season start.  Here’s to one hell of a career!” before toasting his longtime teammate.  (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has the details.)  This is the first open acknowledgement that Lackey is heading towards retirement after the season.  Lackey’s two-year, $32MM contract is up once the Cubs conclude their postseason run, and he turns 39 in October.  He struggled to a 4.56 ERA over 169 2/3 innings thanks in large part to problems with the long ball, as Lackey surrendered a league-high 36 homers and a career-high 18.3% home run rate.  Still, Lackey has enjoyed a tremendous 15 seasons in the big leagues and, coming out of the Cubs bullpen in the playoffs, he’ll look to collect his fourth World Series ring.

Here’s more from around baseball as we head into the final weekend of the regular season…

  • The Cardinals don’t expect extensions with any of their upcoming free agents before the season is over, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  This includes Lance Lynn, whose representatives haven’t had any in-depth talks with the club about a new deal.  When asked if Thursday’s start could be his last with the Cardinals, Lynn said it “certainly looks that way.”  Lynn looks to be one of the top pitchers available in this year’s free agent market, and it appears he’ll be departing a Cards rotation that will mostly be relying on promising younger arms in 2018.
  • Also from Goold’s article, he reports that the Cardinals have been in touch with Juan Nicasio about a new deal.  Nicasio came to St. Louis after a rather surprising series of transactions that saw the right-hander waived by the Pirates, claimed by the Phillies and then dealt to the Cards all within a week’s time at the end of August and in early September.  No matter the uniform, Nicasio pitched well, posting a 2.65 ERA, 3.55 K/BB rate and 71 strikeouts over 71 1/3 innings for his three teams, making a league-high 75 appearances.  The Cardinals have clearly liked what they’ve seen in their short time with Nicasio on the roster and may be trying to lock Nicasio up before he hits the open market.
  • There is mutual interest between the Giants and Nick Hundley in a new contract, though Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle observes that it might hinge on how much playing time Hundley is able to find elsewhere from a catching-needy team.  Obviously, anything more than a backup role isn’t an option in San Francisco with Buster Posey locked in as the regular catcher.  Hundley hit .246/.276/.425 over 296 PA with the Giants while becoming a big voice in the team’s clubhouse.

Agency Changes: Duensing, Groome

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Cubs lefty Brian Duensing and top Red Sox prospect Jason Groome have switched representation and are now clients of the Legacy Agency, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter links). Duensing’s switch is especially pertinent, as he’s slated to hit free agency at the end of the 2017 season.

Chicago inked Duensing to a then-surprising $2MM big league deal early in the 2016-17 offseason. While the 34-year-old had previously had some success out of the Twins’ bullpen, Duensing had a lackluster 2015 season in Minnesota and totaled just 13 1/3 innings in the Majors all of last year, logging a 4.05 ERA with the Orioles.

The Cubs, however, saw enough to pique their interest and have been rewarded with what now looks to be one of the best one-year, Major League contracts issued last winter. Through 61 1/3 innings out of the Chicago ’pen this year, Duensing has posted a 61-to-18 K/BB ratio and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.79 ERA. Duensing has relatively even splits versus lefties and righties, though his K/BB numbers are vastly superior against lefties and he’s traditionally had problems against right-handed bats.

As for Groome, the former No. 12 overall pick (2016) posted terrific numbers in three starts in the Low-A New York Penn League but has had more struggles in the Class-A South Atlantic League. Groome has missed bats at a high level in 2017 (11.7 K/9) but has averaged nearly five walks per nine innings and was a bit homer-prone when pitching in the more advanced of his two leagues this season (1.22 HR/9). He only just turned 19 last month, though, meaning he was routinely squaring off against considerably older and more experienced opponents.

Both switches are now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation info on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

NL Central Notes: Kang, Pirates, Lester, Arrieta, Diaz

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Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang discussed his attempt to return to the majors with Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap (here and here). Kang derailed his career when he drove under the influence of alcohol in his native Korea — the third time he has been arrested for a DUI — with a subsequent conviction leaving him unable to obtain a visa to work in the United States. Now, as he prepares to play in the Dominican Winter League, Kang says he hopes “to become a better person and a better player.” Whether or not he’ll be able to return to action in the majors — in 2018 or beyond — will ultimately depend upon the U.S. government.

  • In a piece that’s not altogether unrelated to Kang’s situation, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette analyzes the thin margin of error the Pirates front office has to work with in light of the team’s still-limited payroll. GM Neal Huntington notes the need to find “significant value outside of the free-agent market” as well as the imperative to “get more than just a dollar-for-dollar value” in free agency. The piece highlights the challenges facing the just-extended executive as he seeks to position the Bucs for contention once again.
  • Needless to say, the Cubs have seen some ups and downs from their rotation this year. Now, it’s key lefty Jon Lester who is struggling to find answers, as Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com writes. The battle-tested veteran has not been very effective since returning from the DL at the start of September; things came to a head last night, as he allowed seven earned runs on eight hits and three hits without recording a strikeout. Lester declined to blame any physical limitations and says he’s “not worried about” the middling results, noting that he simply needs to make adjustments as he has over the course of his successful career.
  • The Cubs will hope that Jake Arrieta is sharper when he makes his own return from the DL. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the veteran righty, who went on the shelf right as Lester came back, feels his arm strength may actually have improved after getting some rest due to a hamstring injury. Arrieta is scheduled for two more regular-season outings, though Chicago will wait to make any final calls on the last few games of the year.
  • Shortstop Aledmys Diaz is back with the Cardinals after an extended run at Triple-A, but as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, his role with the organization — now and in the future — is quite uncertain. Diaz has moved around the infield a bit at Triple-A, perhaps creating some new versatility, though he continued to struggle at the plate. With Paul DeJong now seemingly ensconced at short, Diaz will need to carve out a new role or wait for an opportunity to open with the Cards or, perhaps, some other organization.

Giants Claim Pierce Johnson Off Waivers, Transfer Brandon Belt To 60-Day DL

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The Cubs announced to reporters that right-hander Pierce Johnson, who was designated for assignment last week, has been claimed off waivers by the Giants. The Giants have transferred first baseman Brandon Belt to the 60-day DL to clear a spot for Johnson, per Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link), which definitively puts an end to Belt’s 2017 season.

Now 26 years of age, Johnson once ranked as one of the Cubs’ very best pitching prospects and was considered the game’s No. 87 overall prospect by Baseball America in the 2013-14 offseason. The former No. 43 overall pick turned in a very strong 2.74 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 across two A-ball levels in 2013 in order to earn that distinction, but his star has faded since that time.

Johnson posted similarly strong ERA marks in both 2014 and 2015, but he struggled with control in ’14 and saw his strikeout rate drop drastically in ’15. The Cubs shifted him to the bullpen for much of the 2016 season in Triple-A Iowa, but Johnson responded with a 6.14 ERA and 6.1 BB/9 through 63 innings that year (albeit with a gaudy 10.7 K/9 rate).

The 2017 season was better, as Johnson pitched almost exclusively in a relief role and posted improvements in ERA (4.34 ERA), strikeout rate (12.3 K/9) and walk rate (4.5 BB/9). He has an option remaining beyond the 2017 season, so if the Giants carry him on the 40-man roster through the offseason, they’ll have the luxury of sending him to the minors during or after Spring Training without first needing to expose him to waivers.

Roster Notes: Ramirez, Rondon, Robles, Brinson

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Red Sox skipper John Farrell says that DH/first baseman Hanley Ramirez underwent an MRI on his left biceps, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. A diagnosis and anticipated course of treatment aren’t yet available, but Abraham suggests the team is anticipating some absence from the veteran. The 33-year-old Ramirez has fallen off at the plate this year, slashing just .238/.320/.423 over his 522 plate appearances, with a shoulder problem seemingly bothering him throughout. The club surely hoped for a turnaround for the long-time slugger, but now there’s increasing uncertainty with this new injury.

Here are some other notes on injuries and other considerations that could impact postseason rosters:

  • Cubs righty Hector Rondon is in need of some rest but doesn’t have anything more than a sore elbow, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. He’s expected to miss about a week after getting a cortisone shot. Rondon has scuffled a bit this year, working to a 4.50 ERA in his 54 frames, due in no small part to coughing up ten long balls. That said, Rondon has also managed 10.8 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 and remains an important part of the Cubs pen down the stretch and (the team hopes) into the postseason.
  • As the Nationals continue to consider their options for the postseason roster, young outfielder Victor Robles is receiving real consideration, manager Dusty Baker tells reporters including Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (Twitter link). The 20-year-old was something of an unexpected call-up, but is off to a hot start … in just ten plate appearances. There’s a long way to go until the Nats will feel comfortable entrusting a significant role to him when the stakes are highest, but it’s interesting to see that there’s real internal consideration given the team’s rather lengthy list of possible bench pieces. One major factor, of course, will be whether Bryce Harper can make it back; recent indications are that the team is cautiously optimistic.
  • There’s little more than an “outside” shot for Brewers outfielder Lewis Brinson to make it back to health in time to impact the current season, per GM David Stearns (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, on Twitter). He has been down with a hamstring strain. The 23-year-old struggled upon reaching the majors for the first time this year, but had put up a monster season at Triple-A — where he batted .331/.400/.562 across 340 plate appearances. Brinson will surely be a big part of Milwaukee’s plans next year even if he can’t make it back on the field in 2017.

2017 Rule 5 Roundup

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With just a few weeks left in the season, we have a pretty clear idea of which Rule 5 draft picks will stick with their drafting teams. At this point, having already carried the player this far and with expanded rosters easing any pressures, teams are quite likely to stay the course. Here’s how this season’s Rule 5 group has shaken out thus far:

Keepers

It isn’t official yet, but these

  • Miguel Diaz, RHP, kept by Padres (via Twins) from Brewers: As part of the Pads’ unusually bold Rule 5 strategy, the club kept three youngsters this year. Diaz, 22, has managed only a 6.21 ERA with a 31:22 K/BB ratio over 37 2/3 innings. But he is showing a 96 mph heater and will remain with the organization, quite likely heading back to the minors next season to continue his development.
  • Luis Torrens, C, kept by Padres (via Reds) from Yankees: The youthful backstop — he’s just 21 — has struggled badly on offense in limited action. Through 133 plate appearances, he’s slashing just.169/.246/.212 — with just four extra-base hits, none of them home runs.
  • Allen Cordoba, INF, kept by Padres from Cardinals: And then there’s Cordoba, who’s also just 21 years of age. He faded after a hot start at the plate, but on the whole his output — a .209/.284/.304 batting line and four home runs over 215 plate appearances — is fairly impressive given that he had never before played above Rookie ball.
  • Dylan Covey, RHP, kept by White Sox from Athletics: Technically, owing to a DL stint, Covey has only compiled 83 of the minimum 90 days of active roster time required to be kept. But he’s going to make it there before the season is up, meaning that the Sox will be able to hold onto his rights and option him back to the minors in 2018. Covey, 26, has struggled to a 7.90 ERA with 4.9 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 over 54 2/3 innings, allowing 18 long balls in that span.
  • Stuart Turner, C, kept by Reds from Twins: Turner has seen minimal action, appearing in just 33 games and taking only 77 trips to the plate. And he’s hitting just .141/.184/.268 in that sporadic action. Clearly, though, the Reds have seen enough to believe he’s worth the trouble to hang onto.

Still In Limbo

  • Kevin Gadea, RHP, selected by Rays from Mariners: Gadea has not pitched at any level this year owing to an elbow injury. He’ll remain with the Tampa Bay organization for the time being, but will still need to be carried on the 40-man roster over the offseason and then on the active roster for at least ninety days for his rights to permanently transfer.
  • Armando Rivero, RHP, selected by Braves from Cubs: It’s the exact same situation for Rivero as for Gadea, though he has had shoulder problems.
  • Josh Rutledge, INF, selected by Red Sox from Rockies: This was not your typical Rule 5 move. Boston snagged the veteran infielder after he signed a minors deal with Colorado. He ended up seeing minimal MLB time owing to injuries and his season ended recently with hip surgery. Rutledge is eligible for arbitration this fall and isn’t likely to be kept on the 40-man roster regardless.
  • Anthony Santander, OF, selected by Orioles from Indians: Since he only made it off of the DL late in the summer, Santander can accrue only 45 days on the active roster. If Baltimore wants to keep him, then, it’ll need to put him on the Opening Day roster next year. Santander has seen minimal playing time thus far, recording two hits in twelve trips to the plate, though he put up impressive numbers on his rehab assignment.

Kept By Other Means

  • Daniel Stumpf, LHP, signed with Tigers after electing free agency upon return to Royals: This is another unusual situation. As a previous Rule 5 returnee, Stumpf was eligible to elect free agency upon being returned to his original organization. That’s just what happened when Detroit sent him back to Kansas City; the southpaw then turned around and re-signed a MLB deal with the Tigers. He has ended up turning in a rather productive year, posting 32 1/3 innings of 2.78 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 at the major-league level and showing even more impressive numbers during his time at Triple-A.

Already Returned

  • Tyler Jones, RHP, returned to Yankees by Diamondbacks: Jones has thrown rather well at Triple-A since going back to the New York organization, posting 10.7 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 63 2/3 innings, though he has also allowed 4.38 earned per nine.
  • Caleb Smith, LHP, returned to Yankees by Brewers: Smith ended up earning a 40-man roster spot and spending some time in the majors after showing quite well as a starter in the minors. But he has been knocked around in his 18 2/3 MLB frames on the year.
  • Justin Haley, RHP, returned to Red Sox by Twins (via Angels): The 26-year-old didn’t stick with Minnesota, allowing a dozen earned runs in 18 innings before being returned to Boston. But he has thrown well since landing back at Triple-A Pawtucket, posting a 2.66 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 44 innings over seven starts.
  • Tyler Webb, LHP, returned to Yankees by Pirates: Webb also gained a 40-man spot with the Yankees after showing some intriguing K/BB numbers at Triple-A. He was ultimately dealt to the Brewers.
  • Aneury Tavarez, OF, returned to Red Sox by Orioles: Tavarez played his way back up to Triple-A upon his return to his former organization, but has hit just .244/.292/.400 in 145 plate appearances there.
  • Glenn Sparkman, RHP, returned to Royals by Blue Jays: Sparkman was bombed in his one MLB appearance and has been limited to just 30 1/3 minor-league frames due to injury.
  • Hoby Milner, LHP, returned to Phillies by Indians: Another player who has risen to the majors with the organization that originally let them leave via the Rule 5, Milner has turned in 24 1/3 frames of 1.85 ERA ball in Philadelphia. Of course, he has also managed just 15 strikeouts against ten walks in that span.
  • Mike Hauschild, RHP, returned to Astros by Rangers: The 27-year-old righty struggled badly in his eight MLB frames. Upon returning to the rotation for Houston’s top affiliate, Hauschild has uncharacteristically struggled with free passes (5.3 per nine).

Cubs Designate Pierce Johnson For Assignment

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The Cubs announced on Wednesday that they’ve designated right-hander Pierce Johnson for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for fellow righty Jen-Ho Tseng, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Iowa.

Now 26 years of age, Johnson once ranked as one of the Cubs’ very best pitching prospects and was considered the game’s No. 87 overall prospect by Baseball America in the 2013-14 offseason. The former No. 43 overall pick turned in a very strong 2.74 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 across two A-ball levels in 2013 in order to earn that distinction, but his star has faded since that time.

Johnson posted similarly strong ERA marks in both 2014 and 2015, but he struggled with control in ’14 and saw his strikeout rate drop drastically in ’15. The Cubs shifted him to the bullpen for much of the 2016 season in Triple-A Iowa, but Johnson responded with a 6.14 ERA and 6.1 BB/9 through 63 innings that year (albeit with a gaudy 10.7 K/9 rate).

The 2017 season was better, as Johnson pitched almost exclusively in a relief role and posted improvements in ERA (4.34 ERA), strikeout rate (12.3 K/9) and walk rate (4.5 BB/9). He has an option remaining beyond the 2017 season, so he could very well draw interest from other clubs in need of pitching depth that can afford to exercise more patience with the once touted right-hander than the Cubs can afford to at this juncture.

The 22-year-old Tseng, meanwhile, currently ranks as the Cubs’ 13th-best prospect in the estimation of Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com. Chicago signed the Taiwanese righty to a $1.625MM bonus as an 18-year-old amateur back in 2013, and he’s enjoyed success at each stop as he’s risen through their minor league ranks. Tseng split the 2017 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 2.54 ERA (including a 1.80 ERA in 55 Triple-A innings). He’s averaged a combined 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 this season, and his ground-ball rate spiked from 39.4 percent in 90 1/3 Double-A frames to 53.1 percent in his 55 frames in Iowa.

Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals

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With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.

Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:

  • Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
  • Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
  • Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
  • Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
  • Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
  • Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in  recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
  • Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
  • Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
  • Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
  • Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.

Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.

Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.

Injury Notes: Contreras, Fowler, Syndergaard, Heaney

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Here’s the latest on some injury situations around baseball…

  • The Cubs announced that catcher Willson Contreras has been activated from the 10-day disabled list.  Manager Joe Maddon told MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (Twitter links) and other reporters that Contreras is available to play, though the team will only gradually work him back into the lineup, such as not using Contreras for a full game.  Contreras has been sidelined for the last month due to a hamstring strain, which interrupted a very strong season for the 25-year-old.  Prior to the injury, Contreras had posted a .274/.342/.519 slash line and 21 homers over 378 plate appearances, spending the bulk of his time at catcher but also playing a few games in both corner outfield and infield spots.
  • Dexter Fowler will be out of action “for at least a few days” due to a left knee contusion, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports (Twitter link).  Fowler suffered the injury crashing into the outfield wall in pursuit of an Adam Frazier fly ball last night, and Fowler was forced to leave the game.  The good news is that an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage to Fowler’s knee.  Fowler as been productive (.255/.356/.470, 15 homers) when he’s been able to play this season, though a variety of injuries has limited the Cardinals outfielder to 436 PA and 106 games.
  • Due to what the team described as “general soreness,” Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard won’t throw any simulated innings today, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.  Syndergaard threw three innings in a minor league rehab start on Thursday and was supposed to toss some simulated frames today in the latest step of his recovery process.  Syndergaard has missed much of the season due to a partially torn lat muscle, and with the Mets out of contention and few games left on the schedule, any sort of notable setback could end Syndergaard’s chances of returning to the mound in 2017.
  • Andrew Heaney left his start last night during the third inning due to shoulder tightness, though the Angels right-hander tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and other reporters that he’s “not very concerned” about the injury.  Heaney only just returned from Tommy John rehab in August and has made five starts (to a 7.06 ERA in 21 2/3 IP) for the Halos.  A shoulder issue is less of a red flag than an elbow or forearm problem given Heaney’s history, and he said he hopes to soon resume throwing.
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