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Cafardo’s Latest: Analytics, Archer, Soler, Lucroy, Byrd

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John Henry’s recent comments about how the Red Sox have “perhaps overly relied on numbers” in recent years and became too focused on analytics drew quite a bit of reaction from around baseball, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes.  MLB Network’s Brian Kenny believes “the enemy of the Red Sox is impatience, not analytics,” noting that properly analyzing the numbers could’ve told Boston that Jackie Bradley or Rusney Castillo wouldn’t be stars overnight, or that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were risky signings.  On the other hand, some scouts praised the Sox for their apparent turn to traditional evaluation over sabermetrics.  The Red Sox have been at the forefront of the analytics movement over the last 15 years, so if they succeed in this new direction, Cafardo wonders if other teams could follow suit.  Here’s more from Cafardo’s latest column…

  • Cafardo points to one notable victory for scouting over analytics from 2011, when the Rays’ then-top scout convinced Andrew Friedman to obtain Chris Archer as part of the eight-player blockbuster that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs.  The scout was sold on Archer, while Friedman’s analytics evaluation were pointing him towards righty Chris Carpenter, who ended up pitching only 15 2/3 innings at the MLB level.
  • There’s still “a lot of interest” in Jorge Soler on the trade market, which is an option for the Cubs as they sort out their crowded outfield.  With Dexter Fowler rather unexpectedly returning to Chicago, the Cubs have Jason Heyward playing every day in right (or sometimes center) and then Fowler, Soler, Kyle Schwarber and possibly minor league signee Shane Victorino all juggling for playing time, plus Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also capable of playing left.
  • The Brewers are still considering a Jonathan Lucroy trade, as “there’s still buzz in the scouting community” that a deal could come in Spring Training.  Lucroy would have to prove himself healthy in the wake of a 2015 season shortened by a concussion and a fractured toe.  If he looks good in Cactus League action, that could be enough for another team to pull the trigger on a deal.
  • It’s been a quiet offseason for Marlon Byrd rumors, as Cafardo notes that the veteran outfielder “isn’t getting much love on the market.”  Interest in Byrd could pick up as teams sort through their roster options, however, and Cafardo lists the Angels, Blue Jays and Orioles as speculative fits.  Byrd had 24 homers and an .847 OPS as recently as the 2013 season, but while he’s still managed to hit for power (48 homers) over the last two years, the 38-year-old’s batting average and OBP have fallen off considerably.

Dexter Fowler Notes: White Sox, Orioles, Jones

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Here’s some of the fallout surrounding Dexter Fowler’s surprising return to the Cubs, especially as it pertains to his would-be new team in Baltimore…

  • The White Sox offered Fowler a two-year contract worth more than $17MM, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports.  The offer was for a set two years and didn’t include an opt-out clause or a mutual option after the first season.  Fowler’s deal with the Cubs guarantees him $8MM in 2016, and then he and the team can either both enact a $9MM mutual option for 2017 or the Cubs can buy Fowler out for $5MM.  It’s clear that Fowler and agent Casey Close were focused on flexibility after the 2016 season, as the Orioles’ refusal to include an opt-out clause is what caused the breakdown in talks between the two sides.  The Sox have been known to be interested in Fowler and others this winter as they continue to look for corner outfield help, though the club hasn’t yet done much in the way of major moves to address left or right field.  Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia are still on hand as the incumbent starters, though both had sub-replacement level seasons in 2015.  Signing Fowler would’ve represented a major upgrade for the Pale Hose yet also cost the team the 27th overall pick in the draft since Fowler was a qualifying offer free agent.  The top White Sox pick (the 10th overall selection) was protected, with the later first-round selection given to the team as compensation for Jeff Samardzija signing with the Giants.
  • With Fowler no longer an option, the Orioles are likely to pursue another corner outfielder, MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli writes.  Manager Buck Showalter is satisfied with his internal options, which include the likes of Mark Trumbo (who will probably see lot of DH time), Nolan Reimold, Henry Urrutia, Dariel Alvarez and Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard on the 40-man roster.  Urrutia is the only left-handed hitter of the bunch, so one of the righty-swingers will be used to complement new addition Hyun-soo Kim in left field.  Ghiroli cites Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson or Pedro Alvarez as possible targets for the Orioles, with Alvarez joining the club as a DH and Trumbo then getting most of his playing time in right.  With so many right-handed hitting outfielders already in the mix, left-handed hitting free agents like David Murphy, Grady Sizemore or David DeJesus also make sense as speculative fits.
  • One of the many unusual aspects of the Fowler/Orioles drama was that Adam Jones seemingly had verbal confirmation from Fowler that the outfielder was indeed joining the team.  Jones addressed that situation with reporters (including Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun), saying he was surprised to learn Fowler wasn’t signing with the O’s but there was no issue between he and Fowler.  “At the end of the day, he’s happy where he’s at. His family is happy in Chicago, so good for him,” Jones said.  He also expressed that this gives an opportunity to the Orioles’ other outfielders, and noted that the O’s could pursue midseason upgrades with the money they saved on Fowler’s contract.

Cubs To Sign Shane Victorino To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to terms with outfielder Shane Victorino, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. Victorino will receive a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. He will receive $1M plus a possible $1M in incentives if he makes the team, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Victorino is a client of John Boggs & Associates.

The news that the Cubs have added another outfielder comes as somewhat of a surprise given their recent signing of Dexter Fowler. Jon Heyman tweets, though, that Victorino’s pact was already in place before the Fowler signing, so the team honored the deal.

Victorino, now 35, had a second straight disappointing season in 2015, batting .230/.308/.292 in 204 plate appearances split between the Red Sox and Angels. With Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez and others in the Cubs’ outfield mix, Victorino faces a difficult path to playing time.

Cubs Re-Sign Dexter Fowler

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In a stunning reversal, the Cubs have re-signed outfielder Dexter Fowler to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2017, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. He’ll receive $8MM in 2016. The mutual option is for $9MM with a $5MM buyout (tweet). The Cubs have placed Zac Rosscup on the 60-day DL to make room on the 40-man roster.

Recent reports had Fowler agreeing to a three-year, $33MM deal with the Orioles, but Fowler denies he ever agreed to terms per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (tweet). Jon Morosi of Fox Sports (tweet) confirms the Orioles did not believe they had a deal in place with Fowler.

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The signing reportedly fell through when Fowler demanded an early opt out after one season, tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. Per Jon Heyman (tweet), the Orioles did not want to lose a first round pick (compensation for Wei-Yin Chen) to sign a player for one season. When Baltimore balked, he turned down the $33MM guarantee for $13MM from Chicago.

The re-acquisition of Fowler also puts a new light on the Chris Coghlan trade which was announced about a half hour ago. The Cubs will now lose their second round draft pick for signing John Lackey. When Fowler appeared to be Baltimore-bound, they would have lost the associated compensation pick.

The addition of Fowler will give the Cubs plenty of outfield flexibility. They could opt to move Jason Heyward to his natural position of right field. Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber may share left field or another arrangement could be reached. Given that Fowler isn’t viewed as a positive defensive center fielder, it’s possible Heyward will remain penciled in up the middle. The club now has a wealth of outfield depth with Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also in the mix for reps. At the press conference announcing the deal, GM Theo Epstein told reporters, “this is it. We’re not trading anyone else. We feel great about our outfield mix.”

Fowler’s high OBP profile should fit well anywhere within the Cubs lineup. Heyward and Zobrist are also candidates to bat first and second with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Schwarber, and Soler as middle of the order threats. Fowler batted .250/.346/.411 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2015. The switch-hitter has a history of better on base percentages including a career .363 OBP. His return takes pressure off Schwarber and Soler to perform at high levels.

It’s interesting to note that Fowler is now guaranteed less than the $15.8MM qualifying offer. The mutual option as structured appears very unlikely to be triggered by both sides. Way back in November, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a four-year, $60MM contract for Fowler. Assuming the option is declined, Fowler will re-enter free agency prior to his age 31 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Athletics Acquire Chris Coghlan From Cubs For Aaron Brooks

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The Cubs have traded outfielder Chris Coghlan to the Athletics for pitcher Aaron Brooks, the Cubs announced via press release.

Coghlan, 30, won the Rookie of the Year award in 2009. Last season, he hit .250/.341/.443 in 503 plate appearances. The lefty hitter was mostly used against right-handed pitching. He has fairly substantial career platoon splits.

Owed $4.8MM in his final season of club control, Coghlan will add more depth to the A’s outfield. Khris Davis, Josh Reddick, and Billy Burns are penciled in as the starters with Coco Crisp, Mark Canha, and Sam Fuld in the mix too. Given his success against right-handed pitching, Coghlan could platoon with Canha as the team’s designated hitter. He also has experience at second and third base.

Brooks, 25, was acquired by the A’s late last season in the Ben Zobrist trade. He made nine starts for the A’s in 11 appearances with forgettable results. His 6.71 ERA was a sight worse than his 6.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9. The righty will likely serve as bullpen and rotation depth for the Cubs.

Interestingly, Coghlan appeared to be the Cubs fourth outfielder. Now Arismendy Alcantara and Matt Szczur are the top backup outfielders on the depth chart. Of course, that also overlooks Javier Baez who is expected to be used in a super utility role. The trade could indicate confidence in Baez’s conversion.

It’s possible the Cubs are narrowing on a free agent outfield acquisition. Top available names include Austin Jackson, David DeJesus, and Shane Victorino. Ian Desmond could also be viewed as an option.

NL Central Notes: Epstein, Holliday, McCutchen, Hamilton

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The Cubs had the best offseason according to FanGraphs’ David Cameron. The additions of Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey, and Adam Warren to the talented ball club will help even out the performances of younger boom or bust talents. Cameron had only one critique – signing a true center fielder would have let the Cubs put Heyward in a more comfortable spot while taking pressure off Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler. Cameron graded the offseason of all 30 teams in his post so go ahead and see what he has to say about your favorite. The Brewers rebuild ranked second.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts plans to once again make Theo Epstein the highest paid executive in baseball, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. When Epstein originally joined the franchise on a five-year, $18.5MM contract, it was the largest ever signed by an executive. Since then, others have surpassed him – most notably Andrew Friedman of the Dodgers. Ricketts emphasized that Epstein has delivered on his promises to build a perennial contender and therefore deserves to be compensated as the best. He also noted that it’s a low stress conversation because of their good working relationship.
  • The Cardinals won’t be making any decisions on Matt Holliday’s 2017 club option until after the season, writes Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Dispatch. Holliday is in the final guaranteed year of a seven-year, $120MM contract. Notably, his $17MM option for 2017 comes with just a $1MM buy out making it a $16MM decision for the club. Holliday has also approached the club in the past about deferring money in his contract.
  • Pirates chairman Bob Nutting spoke to reporters about the next CBA, writes Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. As a low revenue club, access to talent is the team’s top concern. In the past, they used large amateur budgets to build their current contending roster. The most recent CBA closed off these avenues of spending. Further, the club’s recent success has compounded the issue since they receive lower draft picks and budgets for winning. Nutting declined to comment on specifics. Nutting also reiterated that the club will “try to find an opportunity” to extend Andrew McCutchen.
  • Reds manager Bryan Price hopes speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton can grow into a leadoff role, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Hamilton is just a career .242/.287/.324 hitter. Despite excellent base running, including 126 stolen bases in 1,087 plate appearances, few players could earn regular reps with that triple slash. With Hamilton, his elite defense guarantees him a regular role, per Price. Now it’s just a matter of finding where his bat plays. FanGraphs’ WAR metric agrees with Price. Hamilton has compiled 6.1 WAR putting him on a 3-4 WAR pace per full season.

Cubs Sign Manny Parra To Minor League Deal

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6:36pm: Parra will receive $520K plus a potential $1.28M in bonuses if he makes the Majors, Jon Heyman tweets.

9:08am: The Cubs announced that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Manny Parra to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training (Twitter link via the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales). Parra is represented by CAA.

Last year, the 33-year-old Parra logged a 3.90 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 45.9 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings for the division-rival Reds. That marked his third straight season with Cincinnati  after five years with the Brewers, so by signing with the Cubs, he’ll continue on in the only division he’s known (at least for the next few weeks).

Milwaukee tried Parra out as a starting pitcher for much of his time in the organization, but he’s struggled to a 5.44 ERA out of the rotation in his career (74 starts) as compared to a 4.01 ERA coming out of the bullpen. Right-handed batters have given Parra plenty of trouble in his big league career, hitting him at a .290/.370/.440 clip, whereas lefties have posted a .254/.330/.391 batting line. Those career marks against lefties are somewhat misleading, however, as Parra has excelled against southpaws since being removed from the rotation. Over the course of his three years in Cincinnati, Parra faced 249 left-handed batters and held them to a paltry .222/.285/.333 slash.

The Cubs already have a number of left-handed relief options in camp, including Clayton Richard, Travis Wood and Rex Brothers — all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Beyond that trio, lefties Jack Leathersich and Edgar Olmos are in camp as non-roster invitees. Suffice it to say, Parra faces significant competition and perhaps an uphill battle as he seeks to make the roster.

NL Central Notes: Arrieta, Braun, Bruce, Waldron

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The Cubs will keep an eye on Jake Arrieta’s workload this season to ensure that the Cy Young Award winner is still fresh for October, Joe Maddon tells reporters (including ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers).  Arrieta threw 248 2/3 innings in the regular and postseason in 2015, far above his previous career high of 176 2/3 frames in 2014.  While Arrieta takes pride in being a workhorse and finishing games, “there’s certain sacrifices that need to be made and I’m more than willing to make those sacrifices to be better for my team later in the season,” he said.  Jon Lester and John Lackey will also have their innings monitored, Maddon said, as the Cubs clearly have their eyes set on being at full strength for the postseason.  Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

  • Ryan Braun will indeed be moving back to left field this season, Brewers manager Craig Counsell confirmed to media (including the Associated Press).  “We talked it over and discussed it, and I think with the players that we have on our roster this year, it’s an advantageous decision for both Ryan and the players we have involved,” Counsell said.  Milwaukee’s left field spot was opened up when Khris Davis was traded to Oakland, and there had been speculation that Braun would be shifted to give highly-touted youngster Domingo Santana regular playing time in right.
  • Also from Counsell, he discusses his first Spring Training as a big league manager and many other topics as part of a Q&A with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  • Jay Bruce has been the subject of several trade rumors this offseason but he’s taking everything in stride, the Reds outfielder told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer.)  When asked if the trade speculation made it awkward to be in the Reds’ clubhouse, Bruce said “No, not at all.  If it were somewhere else, it’d be awkward right now.  This is what I know, this organization has been much more to be than just a baseball team. I’ve been here since I was 18 years old, and this is all I know.  I look forward to still being here and if something does happen, I completely understand.  It’s part of the business.  I mentioned before, obviously, I truly believe the Reds have to do everything they can do improve the organization and if they end up feeling that making a move with me is part of that plan, I respect them for that.”
  • The Cardinals have shut down right-hander Tyler Waldron due to an impingement in his throwing shoulder, the team told media (including MLB.com’s Barry W. Bloom).  Waldron, 26, was a non-roster invite to the Cards’ camp.  He has a 4.54 ERA over 492 minor league innings in the St. Louis and Pittsburgh farm systems.  Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said Waldron was being shut down indefinitely and he wasn’t sure when the righty would be throwing again.

Cubs Sign Aaron Crow, Release Luis Cruz

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The Cubs have signed reliever Aaron Crow to a minor league pact, the club told reporters including Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter links). Chicago also has released lefty Luis Cruz after he failed his physical.

Crow, a 29-year-old righty, spent last year with the Marlins organization after being acquired from the Royals. He was only available to Miami because he scuffled in 2014, with his strikeout and groundball rates plummeting along with his velocity. And as things turned out, Crow he never threw a competitive pitch for the team. He ultimately required Tommy John surgery, leading to a non-tender earlier this offseason.

Before that, though, Crow had done some quality work in the back of the Kansas City pen. Over 2011-13, he ran up 174 2/3 innings of 3.19 ERA pitching while carrying 9.0 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 and inducing grounders on more than half of the balls put in play against him. If he can make it back to anything like that level of production, he’d obviously make for quite a bargain for the Cubs.

The 25-year-old Cruz had been a member of the Astros organization for his entire career to date. But he lost his 40-man spot after throwing 116 innings of 4.27 ERA ball at Triple-A last year, with 7.2 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9. Chicago had picked him up on a minor league deal, but has now nullified that contract owing to the medicals.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Almora, Bard

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Here’s a look at the NL Central:

  • Carrie Muskat of MLB.com ran down six Cubs prospects to keep an eye on this spring.  Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber made their presence felt in 2015 and there are a handful of youngsters that could make an impact in 2016 for Chicago.  That list includes outfielder Albert Almora, the Cubs’ first round selection in 2012.  Almora has been held back by injuries, but the 21-year-old is now healthy and he’ll open the season at Triple-A Iowa.
  • Daniel Bard believes that he’ll get the fresh start that he needs with the Pirates, as Adam Berry of MLB.com writes.  “What I like about being here is I don’t know anybody. Basically, I’m going to get what I deserve here,” Bard said. “What I do on the field is going to dictate who I’m pitching for and where I’m going, and I’m fine with that.”  Bard, Boston’s first-round pick in the 2006 Draft, dominated from 2009 through 2011.  However, he hasn’t been the same pitcher since.  In that three year stretch, Bard posted a 2.88 ERA in a considerably more hitter-friendly era than today’s game even a few short years later. That 2.88 ERA, when adjusted for the league and Bard’s home of Fenway Park, resulted in a 154 ERA+, indicating that he was 54 percent better than a league-average pitcher. He averaged 9.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in that time to go along with a well-above-average ground-ball rate and a fastball that averaged better than 97 mph.  Bard and the Bucs agreed to a minor league deal back in January.
  • Over the weekend, the A’s acquired outfielder Khris Davis from the Brewers in exchange for prospects Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby.  Click here to check out some reactions to the deal and the impact it could have on Oakland and Milwaukee.
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