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NL Central Notes: Candelario, Donovan, Taillon

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Reds third baseman Jeimer Candelario took an early exit from Wednesday night’s contest with the Phillies. He appeared to hurt himself on a swing in his final at-bat, and while he smacked a double on the very next pitch, he continued to grimace from second base. After the game, manager David Bell said that “hopefully” it was nothing more than “hyperextension of the elbow” (per Bally Sports Cincinnati). He said the team does not believe the injury is serious, but they will reevaluate Candelario on Friday before their series opener against the Mets.

Not so long ago, the Reds appeared to have a playing time crunch in the infield. However, Noelvi Marte’s 80-game suspension and Matt McLain’s shoulder surgery cleared up the logjam. If Candelario requires an IL stint, Cincinnati’s infield depth will suddenly be tested. Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can play third base, but they’re already playing regular roles in left field and at first base, respectively. Santiago Espinal, acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays late this spring, is another option to fill in at the hot corner.

In other injury news from around the NL Central…

  • Brendan Donovan was also removed mid-game on Wednesday. Leading off for the Cardinals, he was hit by a pitch in the very first plate appearance of the game. Several innings later, he was hit again, and this time, he did not return to left field in the bottom half of the frame. The second pitch hit him on his throwing elbow (per John Denton of MLB.com). Donovan, a versatile utility player, has played six of his seven games in left field this season. The Cardinals already have three outfielders on the IL – Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, and Dylan Carlson – and can hardly afford to lose another.
  • In more positive injury news, Jameson Taillon is progressing well as he recovers from a stiff lower back. According to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, the righty’s live batting practice session went well on Tuesday. He is set to make a rehab start on Sunday. If all goes well in his rehab appearance, he could still be on track to rejoin the Cubs in mid-April; two weeks ago, manager Craig Counsell suggested mid-April was the earliest Taillon could return (per Lee).

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs retained Cody Bellinger at a bargain price, replaced Marcus Stroman, found a potential first base solution, and supplemented their bullpen – all while staying below the first competitive balance tax threshold.

Major League Signings

  • Cody Bellinger, CF/1B: three years, $80MM.  2025 and ’26 seasons are player options.
  • Shota Imanaga, SP: four years, $53MM.  2026 is a player option that triggers additional options.
  • Hector Neris, RP: one year, $9MM.  Includes $9MM club option for 2025

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs’ offseason kicked off with an important choice by starting pitcher Marcus Stroman on November 4th: he decided to opt out of the remaining one year and $21MM left on his contract.  This created financial flexibility and a vacant rotation spot, making some sort of starting pitching addition feel inevitable.

The following day, the Cubs locked in a rotation spot by making the expected decision to exercise Kyle Hendricks’ $16.5MM club option.  They also picked up the $6MM option on catcher Yan Gomes.

Then the Cubs made a move few people saw coming: they brought in Craig Counsell as manager, which required the largest contract in MLB history for that job both in terms of total and average annual value.  David Ross was fired in the process.  Counsell had managed the Brewers for nearly nine years, taking them to the playoffs in five of the last six seasons.  Counsell is regarded as one of the game’s better managers, and he often succeeded despite below-average payrolls in Milwaukee.

The stunning Counsell-for-Ross move conjured memories of Theo Epstein’s opportunistic switch nine years prior from Rick Renteria to Joe Maddon.  The Cubs’ signature player acquisition that offseason was the signing of Jon Lester, ranked second on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list.  After the Counsell hiring, it was natural to wonder if Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer would deliver an additional offseason prize such as Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The Cubs did show interest in some of the offseason’s biggest names.  Reports suggest they made a real effort to sign Ohtani before he landed with the Dodgers on a heavily-deferred ten-year, $700MM deal, though the Cubs weren’t seemingly a finalist.  According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan, as Ohtani’s free agency drew to a close, agent Nez Balelo “proposed the same deal to at least three other teams,” the Giants, Blue Jays, and Angels.  As late as December 5th, Hoyer shot down a report that the Cubs’ optimism on Ohtani had waned, but it probably should have been waning around then.  The Cubs are not mentioned in that Gonzalez/Passan insider account of the signing.  Whether the Cubs dropped out due to an unwillingness to meet Ohtani’s asking price or due to his preference to play elsewhere remains unknown.

Though Hoyer saw Yamamoto on a September scouting trip to Japan, the Cubs were largely absent from reports about his offseason free agent pursuit.  The reporting on Yamamoto’s free agency provided no indication that the Cubs met with Yamamoto or made an offer.  It is known that both New York teams made strong offers to Yamamoto, who of course wound up joining Ohtani on the Dodgers.  There isn’t much indication that the Cubs could have reasonably won the bidding for Yamamoto, nor that they tried to.

Likewise, the Cubs may have had interest in then-Padres outfielder Juan Soto, but if so they kept it quiet in the rumor mill.  Soto differed from Ohtani and Yamamoto in that it wasn’t up to the player – that prize went to the team that made the best offer.  Soto was a bit of a tough fit for a Cubs team with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked in at the outfield corners.

One major trade target that made ample sense was Tyler Glasnow of the Rays.  According to Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, “the Cubs remained in the Glasnow talks until the end, but were not willing to make a comparable offer” to the Dodgers’ proposal of Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca.  Glasnow’s preferences also mattered.  As Rosenthal and Ardaya put it, “He effectively could rule out certain teams by telling [Rays president of baseball operations Erik] Neander he would only stay with them for one season before entering free agency.”  The Cubs probably could’ve offered enough to land Glasnow for 2024, but they would not necessarily have been able to sign him to an extension.

Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee was quietly on the Cubs’ radar as well, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Like so many of this offseason’s big names, Lee wound up in the NL West.

As 2023 drew to a close, Cubs fans’ dreams of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto, or Glasnow had been dashed.  The team had added a managerial star, but nothing else.

A pair of key moves came within a three-day span in January.  First, the Cubs signed 30-year-old southpaw Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal.  The team also owes a posting fee of at least $9.825MM to his former team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars.  Imanaga will earn $23MM for his first two seasons with the Cubs, after which the team must decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering his age 32-34 seasons.  If they do so, it’d bring Imanaga’s total to five years and $80MM, similar to preseason contract projections.  If the Cubs decline, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for ’26.  If exercised, the Cubs will have to decide on two years and $42MM for 2027-28.  If the Cubs decline their first option, Imanaga exercises his ’26 player option, and the Cubs decline their 2027-28 option, the pitcher has another $15MM option for ’27.

It’s a fairly complicated structure that offers the Cubs some measure of protection as opposed to the $80MM guarantee a starter like Eduardo Rodriguez received.  Early returns on Imanaga suggest he can perform as a mid-rotation starter, in which case his contract represents a solid deal for the Cubs.  I don’t blame the Cubs for preferring Imanaga on his contract to Stroman at $21MM for one year or $37MM for two.

First base was a clear need for the Cubs, and they reportedly entertained a traditional solution in Rhys Hoskins as well as an interesting one in Josh Naylor.  Eventually, though, Hoyer made an addition no one saw coming by trading prospects for the Dodgers’ Michael Busch, as well as reliever Yency Almonte.  Busch, an MLB-ready 26-year-old rookie, comes with six years of control remaining.  He won’t even be paid an arbitration salary until 2027, and he’s under team control for a total of six more years.  If Busch develops into the above average hitter his scouting reports and Triple-A work suggest, this will become an inspired pickup by the Cubs.

The Cubs inked Hector Neris to a one-year deal in late January, at a $9MM salary a bit beyond Hoyer’s typical comfort zone for relievers.  At that point, the Cubs could have considered their offseason done.  They’d replaced Stroman, found a first base solution, and supplemented the bullpen.

Cody Bellinger has been conspicuously absent from this post thus far, and that’s because Bellinger reportedly sought $200MM or more on a long-term deal.  Back in November, I thought he’d get it, and not from the Cubs.  I also felt that the Cubs’ motivation on Bellinger would be limited, given the presence of slick-fielding center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong.  There were signs the Cubs lacked full confidence in running PCA out to begin the season, however.  Two, specifically: their interest in Jung Hoo Lee and Kevin Kiermaier.

So the Cubs hung back and remained opportunistic on Bellinger.  As late as February 19th, owner Tom Ricketts said, “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” calling out agent Scott Boras to get serious.  About a week later, Bellinger’s deal with the Cubs was done, at a mere $80MM guarantee over three years.  Yes, there’s downside risk in that Bellinger will only forgo his two opt-outs if he performs poorly.  But if he plays well again this year and opts out, the Cubs will have only committed $30MM.  The Bellinger signing lengthens the Cubs’ lineup and pushes Crow-Armstrong back to Triple-A.  Bellinger can also slide over to first base should circumstances warrant it.

Ricketts made his position on payroll clear in that February 19th interview: “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels.  It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.”  That was before the Bellinger signing; with him, the Cubs are estimated at about $234MM, only $3MM below the first CBT threshold to which Ricketts referred.

As the calendar turned to March, the Cubs were presented with a slew of opportunities to jump on further Boras surprise bargains and push the team from “should be enough to win our division” to “likely to win our division.”  Likely because of Ricketts’ unwillingness to push payroll past its current point (an estimated 10th in MLB), the Cubs passed on several big name free agents they very much could have used.

Matt Chapman was next off the board, signing a three-year, $54MM deal with the Giants that included a pair of opt-outs.  Chapman would have been a “nice-to-have” for the Cubs, plugging in at third base and pushing Christopher Morel mostly to the DH spot.  It’s possible Chapman’s comfort in the Bay Area meant the Cubs would have had to go higher than the Giants, however.  The Cubs’ current plan seems to be mixing and matching at third base with Morel, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom.

The Giants also seized the opportunity to sign Blake Snell at two years and $62MM with an opt out.  Snell made a lot of sense at this price for the Cubs, though both he and Chapman would’ve required the Cubs to forfeit their second-round draft pick.  Jordan Montgomery remained on the market, however, and he would not require draft pick forfeiture.

The Cubs’ rotation, when everyone is healthy, will feature Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Jordan Wicks.  There is reason to believe this is not a collection of five 180-inning pitchers.  Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Drew Smyly are additional options to cover the inevitable injuries, such as the current ones to Steele and Taillon.  Signing Montgomery to a one-year, $25MM deal and pushing everyone down a spot was an opportunity the Cubs should’ve jumped on.   Instead Montgomery landed with the Diamondbacks, a team Ricketts would like to emulate, because, “You don’t have to have the highest payroll or the biggest stars. If you’re playing well, anybody can beat anybody. I was happy for the Diamondbacks.”

If the Cubs face any kind of starting pitching depth problem this year, and Snell and Montgomery are useful pitchers, it will be pretty easy to point to their availability in March.  To be fair, the same can be said of many teams.

Once everyone is healthy, the Cubs’ rotation looks decent, and their offense looks fairly deep.  The club also features strong defense up the middle.  They’re right in the middle of an NL Central that currently has all five teams projecting for 80-82 wins.  For a lot of teams, that’s good enough.

Justin Steele Out Until At Least May

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Cubs ace Justin Steele exited his first start of the season with a hamstring strain, and he’s looking at an absence that’s more than double the minimum 15 days on the injured list. Manager Craig Counsell told the Cubs beat today that Steele has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain and is expected to miss the entire month of April (X link via Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic). The team doesn’t have an exact timetable yet, as they’re waiting for Steele to be able to walk without a limp before mapping things out more concretely.

Steele was cruising through a well-deserved first Opening Day start of his career when he tumbled awkwardly while fielding a bunt off the bat of Leody Taveras. The 28-year-old lefty managed to make an impressive play and throw out the speedy Taveras but immediately grabbed at his leg in the aftermath of the play before exiting with a trainer. The Cubs put him on the injured list earlier today and called up pitching prospect Ben Brown.

Losing Steele for at least a sixth of the season is a significant blow to a Cubs club that has its sights set on a return to the postseason in what’s viewed as a wide-open NL Central division. The left-hander was never considered to be a premium prospect but has nevertheless climbed from an unheralded fifth-round pick to not just a solid member of the starting staff but an All-Star and top-five finisher in National League Cy Young voting.

Steele made 30 starts for the Cubs in 2023 and pitched 173  1/3 innings with a 3.06 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 49.4% ground-ball rate. That marked his second straight season of a low-3.00s ERA, but Steele dramatically improved his walk rate in 2023 and enjoyed his success over a much larger sample in ’23 than the prior season. Including his 2021 rookie showing and this year’s lone appearance, he’s pitched to a 3.28 ERA in 354 big league innings.

With Steele sidelined for more than a month and perhaps even a fair bit more than that — Counsell did not specify whether early May or late May was the expectation — the Cubs’ rotation depth will be put to the test early. Chicago signed star NPB lefty Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract over the winter, effectively replacing righty Marcus Stroman, who eventually signed with the Yankees as a free agent. Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and bounceback hopeful Jameson Taillon will lead a staff that’ll now be quite young in the four and five spots.

The 24-year-old Brown, a well-regarded pitching prospect whom the Cubs acquired from the Phillies in the 2022 David Robertson trade, will make his big league debut when he first takes the mound. He has significant command issues in Triple-A last year (15.8% walk rate in 72 2/3 innings) but impressed in spring training and has strong overall numbers up through Double-A. Javier Assad has a 3.06 ERA in 41 career appearances, but more than half those have come out of the bullpen. He’s also posted a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate against a higher-than-average 9.9% walk rate.

The Cubs have a few soft spots on the schedule over the next month-plus, but they’ll face more competitive teams than non-contenders. Their April schedule will see them square off against the Dodgers, Astros, D-backs, Mariners, Padres, Marlins, Red Sox and Rockies. They draw the Mets, Brewers (twice), Padres, Pirates (twice), Braves (twice) and Cardinals in May.

Cubs Promote Ben Brown, Place Justin Steele On 15-Day IL

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2:34PM: The Cubs officially announced Brown’s promotion and Steele’s IL placement.  Steele’s time on the injured list retroactively begins on March 29, and his injury was designated as a left hamstring strain.

12:59PM: The Cubs will call up right-hander Ben Brown from Triple-A today, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (via X).  Brown will likely take the roster spot of Justin Steele, who is ticketed for the 15-day injured list after suffering a hamstring injury on Opening Day.

It would also appear that Brown will take over Steele’s place in the rotation for the time being, with Brown lined up to make his MLB debut on either Tuesday or Wednesday when the Cubs host the Rockies.  It will be quite the moment for 24-year-old Brown, whose pro career began as a 33rd-round draft pick for the Phillies in 2017 when injuries contributed to his fall down the board.  As noted by Baseball America’s scouting report, Brown has had to overcome a burst appendix, a Tommy John surgery, an elbow strain, and some time on the Covid-related injured list before finally getting healthy in 2022 and getting some extended time on the mound.

That season brought about another change for Brown, when Philadelphia dealt him to the Cubs at the trade deadline in the David Robertson deal.  Making his Triple-A debut in 2023, Brown posted a 5.33 ERA in 72 2/3 innings for Iowa before missing about a month with a lat problem.

A 15.8% walk rate was the biggest factor in Brown’s Triple-A struggles, and he has occasionally experienced some control problems in past years as well.  The strikeout potential is evident, however, as Brown has a 31.1% strikeout rate over his 297 career minor league innings, and both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline give 60-grades to his fastball and curve, with Pipeline adding a 60 to his slider as well.  Clearly Brown has plenty of stuff, though both scouting outlets wonder if his future might ultimately be as a reliever if he can’t stay healthy or deliver more consistent control.

Until that decision has to be made, the Cubs will see what Brown can do as a starter.  Between Steele’s hamstring issue and Jameson Taillon already on the IL with back problems, Chicago has had to made some early dips in its rotation depth, which allowed both Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks to make the Opening Day rotation.  Assad and Wicks have limited MLB experience, and Brown and NPB import Shota Imanaga have never pitched in the majors, leaving Kyle Hendricks as far and away the most experienced healthy starter in Wrigleyville.  Veteran Drew Smyly was slotted for bullpen work rather than the starting rotation, and it seems like the Cubs will keep Smyly in that role even with Steele now sidelined.

Scott Boras Discusses Recent Free Agent Contracts

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The latter stages of the 2023-24 offseason were focused on the so-called “Boras Four.” Each of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery lingered on the open market beyond the start of Spring Training and signed deals below the forecasts from the early winter. Agent Scott Boras, who represents all four of that group, discussed the matter with Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, noting that he and the players were likely going to be deciding between long-term deals or shorter pacts but with higher annual salaries.

“I don’t think their predictions included what we were fully aware of,” Boras said of media predictions coming into the winter, “and that is, clubs were going to come to us and say, ‘We’re not going to look at length with premium AAVs (average annual values) because of what preceded their performance prior to 2023.” He used Snell and Bellinger as examples of how clubs could look past the 2023 season and focus on prior seasons.

“Blake Snell has $30 million a year for a couple of years to go out and just show durability,” Boras said. “Blake Snell doesn’t have to go out and win the Cy Young every year. He’s an extraordinary pitcher. The market viewed him as, what happened in ‘21 and ‘22? The market viewed Cody as, what happened in ‘21 and ‘22? So we knew going into this process that choices were going to be most important. You’re either going to get the appropriate AAV, but you’re not going to get the length, or you’re going to get the length at a much lower AAV, so what do you choose?”

The comments provide an interesting look into the sorts of tough decisions a free agent has to make. Even if a player is incredibly talented and lucky enough to stay healthy beyond their arbitration years, they are likely to only sign one really significant contract in their career. While some players in that position may just take the best guarantee available when the opportunity arises, others seem willing to kick the can down the road if they can’t find the ideal deal.

Snell was surely looking to cash in after a Cy Young-winning season wherein he posted a 2.25 earned run average for the Padres. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell could ride the momentum of his trophy win to a deal of $200MM over seven years, with other media outlets making similar prognostications.

It appears that type of deal never materialized, with the largest reported offer he received being a six-year, $150MM deal from the Yankees. In the end, he pivoted to a two-year, $62MM deal from the Giants, which allows him the chance to opt-out midway through. As Boras alluded to, Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He fell short of 130 innings in both 2021 and 2022, with an ERA of 4.20 in the former and 3.38 in the latter.

Bellinger was in a somewhat similar position. He was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019 but went through a real rough patch after suffering a shoulder injury. He hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers. A one-year deal with the Cubs gave him the opportunity to bounce back, which he did, hitting 26 home runs and stealing 20 bases while providing quality defense in center field and first base.

It would appear that clubs used the inconsistency of those players to justify not maximizing their offers this winter, so Snell pivoted to the aforementioned short-term deal. Bellinger got a three-year deal worth $80MM to return to the Cubs, with opt-outs after each year. Both players can bank some money this year and hopefully return to the open market next winter, with the extra years on the deal providing a bit of a safety net in the case of renewed struggles or health problems this year.

It’s a tactic Boras has taken before, with Carlos Correa perhaps being the best example prior to this winter. Correa first hit free agency in the winter of 2021-22, which was impacted by the lockout. He didn’t find a deal to his liking prior to the stoppage and hired Boras during the transactions freeze. After the new collective bargaining agreement was agreed to, he signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins which allowed him to opt-out after each season.

After another strong season in 2022, he triggered his opt-out and returned to the open market. He finally found the mega deal that he was looking for when he and the Giants agreed to a 13-year, $350MM framework. That deal eventually got scuttled when the Giants grew concerned by Correa’s medicals, as did another pact with the Mets, but Correa still got himself a sizeable $200MM guarantee to return to the Twins. That deal can also max out at $270MM via four vesting options.

That is the type of playbook that each of the Boras four will be looking to follow, though obviously without the part where deals gets thrown out by physicals. Chapman got three years and $54MM from the Giants, also with opt-outs. Montgomery got one year and $25MM from the Diamondbacks, with a vesting player option valued at $20MM if he makes just 10 starts this year.

The hope will be that each can continue to perform well in 2024 and hopefully find better conditions next winter. The 2023-24 offseason saw many clubs scale back spending, either due to competitive balance tax concerns or uncertainty around television revenue. “One billion dollars was removed from the ability to contract players,” is the way Boras frames it. He and his clients will be hoping some of that money is back on the table next winter.

Cubs, Curt Casali Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have signed veteran catcher Curt Casali to a minor league contract, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. The BHSC client spent spring training with the Marlins but didn’t make the roster and was granted his release earlier this week.

Casali, 35, is a veteran of 10 big league seasons. He had a solid run with the Reds and (more briefly) the Rays from 2017-20, batting .262/.348/.444 over the life of 498 plate appearances, working primarily in a backup role. His bat has declined in the three seasons since, however.

Dating back to 2021, Casali has posted a lackluster .201/.311/.315 batting line — about 22% below league-average (78 wRC+) in a span of 504 plate appearances. He had a tough showing in camp with Miami, too, going just 1-for-17 with a double, a pair of walks and a pair of strikeouts.

Though his bat has seen a clear downturn in recent seasons, Casali is generally regarded as a sound defender. He nabbed six of 19 potential thieves on the bases last year (32%), and Statcast graded him as better than average when it comes to blocking pitches in the dirt. Defensive Runs Saved (+3) had a favorable view of his glovework as well.

The Cubs don’t have an immediate need behind the dish. Veteran Yan Gomes is slated to serve as the primary catcher for new manager Craig Counsell, and he’ll split time with 25-year-old Miguel Amaya, who’s out of minor league options and thus has to remain on the big league roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers. Presumably, Casali will head to Des Moines to suit up for the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate and be one of their first considerations in the event of an injury on the big league catching corps.

Players Who Sign Extensions Prior To MLB Debut Are Not PPI Eligible

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A player who signs a contract extension prior to making his major league debut is not eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, reports JJ Cooper of Baseball America. He specifically mentions Jackson Chourio of the Brewers and Colt Keith of the Tigers, who both signed extensions with their respective clubs this offseason, as players who are not PPI eligible.

The latest collective bargaining agreement introduced the PPI to encourage clubs to carry top prospects on Opening Day rosters, rather than hold them down in the minors to gain an extra year of control, a move generally referred to as service time manipulation.

A major league season is 187 days long and a player needs 172 days in the big leagues to earn one year. By holding a player down in the minors for a few weeks, a club can prevent that player from getting to the one-year mark. Since a player needs a full six years of service to qualify for free agency, the club can gain an extra year of control over a young player by doing this. Some of the oft-cited examples of this practice are Kris Bryant of the Cubs and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, both of whom were top prospects who were called up a few weeks into their respective rookie seasons, thus coming up just short of one year of service.

In an attempt to curb this behavior, the CBA introduced the PPI system, whereby teams could earn an extra draft pick by promoting certain players early in the season. To qualify, a player had to be on at least two out of the three top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, as well as being rookie eligible and have fewer than 60 days of service time. If such a player was called up early enough in the season to accrue 172 days of service the traditional way*, they would be PPI eligible and could net their club an extra pick just after the first round. To earn a pick, a PPI eligible player has to either win a Rookie of the Year award or finish in the top three of voting for Most Valuable Player or Cy Young prior to qualifying for arbitration.

(*There was another new measure in the CBA to disincentive service time manipulation, whereby a player could earn a full year of service even if called up too late. If they were otherwise PPI eligible and finished in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, they could be bumped up to a full year, but they would not earn their clubs an extra pick. This situation arose with Adley Rutschman of the Orioles in 2022, who finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting despite missing the first few weeks of the season. He earned a full year of service but the O’s would not have received a bonus pick for that if he had finished first.)

This new detail provides an extra wrinkle, as Chourio and Keith would have been in play for PPI picks. Both of them are top prospects who signed offseason extensions and then cracked Opening Day rosters. However, this new development means they won’t be in play for those bonus picks after all.

On the flip side, Cooper adds that Michael Busch of the Cubs and Joey Ortiz of the Brewers are PPI eligible. When Matt Eddy of Baseball America outlined the PPI rules back in February, he noted that players who debut in the majors and are then traded do not have PPI status with their new club. Busch debuted with the Dodgers last year and was traded to the Cubs this winter while Ortiz debuted with the Orioles before being flipped to the Brewers. Eddy provided a further update today, stating that they are PPI eligible since they were not moved via midseason trades.

Justin Steele Likely Headed To IL With Hamstring Injury

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Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele left his Opening Day start early on Thursday after fielding a bunt and falling as he flipped the ball to first base. He seemed to be holding his left hamstring as he walked off the field, per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. The team later confirmed to reporters (including Sharma) that Steele exited the game with left hamstring tightness.

After the game, a 4-3 loss to the Rangers in extra innings, Cubs manager Craig Counsell used the word “strain” to describe Steele’s injury (per Sharma). He added that the All-Star left-hander will likely go on the injured list, but as Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune notes, the skipper would not speculate about how much time Steele could miss. The southpaw will undergo an MRI on Friday (per Montemurro), after which the team will likely have a better idea about the severity of his injury and how long he might spend on the IL.

Counsell told reporters, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, that the team does not yet have a plan for who will take Steele’s spot in the rotation. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Hayden Wesneski seem to be the most likely candidates, given their presence on the 40-man roster and recent experience pitching out of the big league rotation. Smyly, 34, made 23 starts for the Cubs last year, while Wesneski, 26, made 11. However, Smyly found success in a bullpen role down the stretch in 2023; he made some starts this spring but was largely preparing to start the season as a reliever. Meanwhile, Wesneski struggled tremendously as a starter last year (5.51 ERA, 6.26 FIP) and looked even worse in six outings (four starts) this spring.

Ben Brown, 24, is one more name on the 40-man roster to keep an eye on. He transitioned to a bullpen role last season, but he has recent starting experience and looked sharper than either Smyly or Wesneski this spring. What’s more, his move to the bullpen may have simply been a way to accelerate his path to the major leagues, not a permanent change. He was quite good in 19 minor league starts last season, pitching to a 3.81 ERA and racking up 120 strikeouts in only 85 innings pitched. However, his lack of experience may work against him; Brown has yet to make his MLB debut.

Whether it is Smyly, Wesneski, Brown, or another arm entirely, the Cubs have a difficult decision to make before what would have been Steele’s next turn in the rotation: the final game of the home opener series against the Rockies on Wednesday, April 3.

Cubs, A's Were Reportedly "Close To Finallizing" Sam Moll Trade Last Summer

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Had the Reds not come back to the negotiating table, Wittenmyer notes, it’s possible that Moll could have wound up pitching for the Cubs down the stretch last year. Wittenmyer reports that the club believed they were close to finalizing their own deal for Moll before Oakland landed Boyle. Moll, 32, enjoyed a dominant stretch run of his own with Cincinnati last fall as he pitched to a microscopic 0.73 ERA in 25 appearances with the Reds following the deal. Moll was slowed by shoulder soreness throughout camp this spring and stands to open the season on the injured list but figures to play a key role in the Cincinnati bullpen this season once healthy alongside the likes of Alexis Diaz and Emilio Pagan.

Cubs Release Jorge Alfaro

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The Cubs released catcher Jorge Alfaro this evening, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times.

Alfaro, 31 in June, was in camp with the club on a minor league deal and had been informed last week that he wouldn’t make the club’s Opening Day roster out of camp. As an Article XX(B) free agent, Alfaro had the right to opt out of his minors deal with Chicago if not added to the 40-man roster. It’s unclear if he ever formally exercised that right, but he’ll now return to the open market where he can pursue opportunities elsewhere that may provide a clearer path to playing time at the big league level.

Once a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport, Alfaro was part of multiple significant trades as a youngster. After initially signing with the Rangers as an international free agent, he was included as part of the prospect package the club sent to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels trade at the 2015 trade deadline. He made his big league debut with the Phillies the following year and slashed a solid .270/.327/.422 in 143 games with the club across three seasons before once again finding himself moved as part of the return in a blockbuster. This time, Alfaro was shipped to Miami as part of the return for All Star catcher J.T. Realmuto during the 2018-19 offseason.

Alfaro’s first season with the Marlins went rather well, as he slashed a respectable .262/.312/.425 with 18 home runs in 465 trips to the plate. His defense behind the plate left something to be desired, however, and over the next two seasons Alfaro would begin to deal with similar struggles on offense. In 123 games with the Marlins between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, he hit just .240/.282/.343 in 411 trips to the plate. That performance was good for a wRC+ of just 69, 31% worse than the league average hitter over that same period.

With his struggles with the glove now compounded by struggles at the plate, the Marlins decided to move on from Alfaro during the 2021-22 offseason by moving him to the Padres in a cash deal. Alfaro rebounded somewhat to post a decent 91 wRC+ in 82 games with the Padres in 2022 but found himself non-tendered that November, after which point he spent the 2023 campaign bouncing between several organizations while spending time with the Red Sox and Rockies at the major league level.

Looking ahead, it would be something of a surprise to see Alfaro land a major league deal given his struggles in recent years. With that being said, the Colombia native’s prospect pedigree and previous offensive success at a position where upper-level depth is particularly valuable should make him one of the more attractive options to catching-needy clubs available on the market at this stage of the offseason, and it’s easy to imagine him finding a minor league deal where he’ll be more likely to impact the big league roster than he was in Chicago, where the Cubs are poised to rely on a tandem of Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya behind the plate.

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