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Reactions To And Effects Of The Yonder Alonso Trade

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The late-night Friday move that sent 1B/DH Yonder Alonso to Chicago’s south side was a deal typically reserved for transaction marginalia. Because of the headliner’s relationship with star free-agent SS/3B Manny Machado, though (the two are brothers-in-law), and Cleveland’s offseason status as a veritable repository for top-end available arms, the trade has implications that range further than most of its ilk.

Here’s the latest from the Upper Midwest …

  • Per WSCR-AM’s Bruce Levine, Machado will meet with the White Sox next week. Whether or not the opportunity to play with Alonso will hold sway is unknown, but GM Rick Hahn made serious effort, in a post-trade assembly with reporters, to redirect swirling conjecture back to Alonso: “Fundamentally this is a baseball deal,” Hahn said. “We like how Yonder fits in between the lines and in the clubhouse and helps further what we’re trying to accomplish in 2019 and beyond. The potential ancillary benefits to it in terms of his relationships with others really can’t be part of pulling the trigger in making the decision to acquire a big league player…” It should be noted, too, that purported White Sox target Yasmani Grandal, Havana-born and Miami-bred like Alonso, played with the 1B/DH at the University of Miami, in the Cincinnati Red farm system, and with the San Diego Padres from 2012-’14.
  • Per MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince and Mandy Bell, the “key to the deal,” from Cleveland’s perspective, was the ability to clear the entirety of Alonso’s $9MM salary for ’18 (he also has a $9MM, 2020 option that vests if he accrues 526 plate appearances in ’19) off the books. Speculatively, though Alonso’s mostly-league-average bat, over the course of his career, likely wasn’t sought-after on the trade market, Cleveland may have seen a slight bump in the return quality if it was willing to eat most of the remaining cash on Alonso’s deal.
  • With the aforementioned savings in the White Sox deal, plus the approximately $9MM slashed in the Carlos Santana/Edwin Encarnacion swap, the Indians appear to have drastically increased their 2019 payroll space. Fancred’s Jon Heyman relays the good news for Tribe fans, tweeting that both Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer are now “more likely to stay.” The Indians could, though, look to aggressively upgrade a barren-looking outfield by using the newfound space and dealing one of the two aces, though enthusiasm behind the latter strategy has seemed diffident from the start.
  • Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the deal “doesn’t necessarily indicate” the club is now looking to move 1B/DH Jose Abreu. Abreu, 31, projects to earn $16MM in arbitration this season, and has seen his surplus value slide considerably in recent seasons. Still, Steamer projects the slugger to post a robust .280/.339/.495 (125 wRC+) line in ’19, and his presence could still be coveted by a team becoming increasingly desperate for a middle-of-the-lineup presence.

White Sox Acquire Yonder Alonso

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Dec 15: Both the White Sox and Indians have announced the deal (Twitter links).

Dec 14: The White Sox have reportedly struck a deal with the Indians to acquire first baseman Yonder Alonso. The match first arose on the WatchStadium Twitter account, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also now reporting an agreement on Twitter. Outfielder Alex Call will go to Cleveland in return, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links), with the Chicago org taking over all of Alonso’s remaining contract obligations.

Needless to say, the gears are turning when it comes to first base/DH sluggers, with the Indians, Mariners, Rays, and now the White Sox at the center of the action. Alonso’s spot on the Cleveland roster came into question with the club’s recent 3-team deal, which brought Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers to the organization.

The addition of Alonso also dovetails with some of the Chicago club’s other major pursuits. Certainly, adding a veteran hitter on a short-term deal goes along with the recent moves to pick up Ivan Nova and Alex Colome. Those additions help the near-term outlook and assist with the recruiting of bigger free-agent fish. Alonso, particularly, is of note, as he’s the brother in law of reputed White Sox target Manny Machado.

Alonso, 31, signed with the Indians last winter on a two-year pact that includes a club option. He’ll play on a $8MM salary in 2019, with a $9MM vesting/club option (or $1MM buyout) thereafter. Notably, that option vests if Alonso compiles 1,100 plate appearances over the two guaranteed seasons of the contract; after reaching 574 last year, he’s now 526 shy of locking in more money for 2021.

The first (and now only) season Alonso spent in Cleveland did not go quite as hoped. He had broken out in 2017 with a monster .266/.365/.501 slash and 28 home runs — quite a power burst for a player who had never before finished a MLB campaign with double-digit longballs. Though he put the ball over the fence 23 times in 2018, Alonso was unable to maintain the on-base percentage that had previously been his calling card as a hitter.

The White Sox will gamble that Alonso can return to something more like his 2017 output. To do so, he’ll need to reverse slides in his walk rate (13.1% to 8.9%) and isolated power (.235 to .171). Alonso put the ball in the air nearly as much as he had in his ’17 effort, but nearly doubled his number of infield flies (8.3% to 14.5%) and made an increasing amount of soft contact (13.2% to 19.8%).

Whether Alonso can make the necessary adjustments remains to be seen. It stands to reason that he’ll appear most frequently against right-handed pitching, as he carries yawning platoon splits. Presumably, the Sox will allow Alonso to share time at first base with Jose Abreu, who’ll be in the lineup every day regardless. It’d make sense to utilize another right-handed hitter when a lefty is on the bump.

For the Indians, this is all about tweaking the financials and roster to match up with other demands. By the reckoning of MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince (Twitter link), the Cleveland organization has pared back its 2019 payroll by something like $18MM with its recent slate of moves (particularly the above-noted deal, in which Edwin Encarncion was dealt away, and the decision to part with catcher Yan Gomes). There are still needs to be met on the roster, but now there’s additional flexibility to work with. Plus, as Castrovince notes, the Indians have now greatly reduced the pressures that had led them to consider dealing a top pitcher. While that possibility cannot be ruled out, perhaps the Indians will not be forced into settling for less than a compelling return.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Andrew Miller

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The Phillies are “strongly” in on free-agent lefty Andrew Miller, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury had previously reported the team to be in pursuit of both Miller and Zach Britton. Meanwhile, Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggests that Miller “is going to insist on a no-trade clause” after surprisingly being dealt a year and a half into his four-year pact with the Yankees. Heyman further reports that the White Sox were talking to Miller but now “seem to have pulled back.”

Miller, 34 in May, had a down season in 2018 as he missed brief stints due to hamstring and shoulder issues while also spending a more substantial period on the 60-day disabled list owing to a right knee injury. The result was a 4.24 ERA with somewhat diminished K/BB numbers in just 34 innings of work.

Of course, in the four preceding seasons, Miller was very arguably the game’s best reliever. Once a prized starting pitching prospect, he instead broke out following a move to the bullpen after several years of struggling in the rotation. From 2014-17, Miller pitched to a ridiculous 1.72 ERA with averages of 14.5 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched. With the exception of the 2017 season, he’s posted at least average ground-ball tendencies on an annual basis, and dating back to the 2013 season, the only pitchers in all of baseball with a better swinging-strike rate than Miller’s 15.7 percent are Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen.

Given his age and the fact that he missed time due to three separate injuries last season, there’s some undeniable risk when it comes to Miller. But, if the Phillies are convinced of Miller’s health, they likely view him as a potentially wipeout reliever whose 2018 struggles may have dropped his earning power a bit. He’d give the Phils a formidable one-two punch at the back of the ’pen, alongside dominant rookie Seranthony Dominguez. Veteran setup options Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek, too, will be back in 2019, with other names such as Jose Alvarez, Juan Nicasio, Hector Neris and Adam Morgan among the options to round out Gabe Kapler’s relief corps.

Should the ChiSox rekindle their pursuit, Miller would join right-handers Alex Colome and Nate Jones as the most established options at the back of what is currently an inexperienced group of relievers.

White Sox To Sign James McCann

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1:05pm: McCann will receive $2.5MM on a one-year deal, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

12:51pm: The White Sox have agreed to terms with free-agent catcher James McCann, pending a physical, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). The 28-year-old, who was non-tendered by the Tigers earlier this month, will remain in the AL Central after spending the entirety of his career in the Detroit organization to this point. He’s represented by the Ballengee Group.

As recently as the 2017 season, McCann served as the Tigers’ primary catcher and hit .253/.318/.415 with a career-high 13 home runs. However, his offense cratered in 2018 (.220/.267/.314, eight home runs in 457 plate appearances), and his once-excellent numbers against left-handed pitching were particularly concerning. In 109 PAs against southpaws last year, McCann hit just .176/.229/.284.

On the defensive side of the coin, McCann has continually been sensational in terms of controlling the running game. He’s registered at least a 30 percent caught-stealing rate in each of his four full big league seasons, including a 36 percent mark in 2018 and an overall rate of 37 percent. He’s been well below-average in terms of pitch framing across the past two seasons, though, and has struggled similarly in terms of blocking balls in the dirt.

Presumably, he’ll give the White Sox an option to step into the void created by the trade of Omar Narvaez to the Mariners (in exchange for Alex Colome). Veteran Welington Castillo is still atop Chicago’s depth chart behind the plate, making McCann the favorite to serve as his backup. Certainly, further offseason maneuvering can change that fact, and it’s of course worth noting that it’s not yet clear whether McCann received a guaranteed one-year deal or is headed to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

Post-Winter Meetings Rumors On Manny Machado, Bryce Harper

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Manny Machado will head to Philadelphia for an in-person visit with the Phillies next week, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and George A. King III of the New York Post suggests that a similar visit to Yankee Stadium could be lined up for next week as well. The Yankees and Phillies are two of the reported four teams set to be aligning visits with the polarizing Machado, along with the White Sox and the ever-popular “mystery team.” For the Phillies, the acquisition of Jean Segura makes Machado a likelier fit at third base despite the infielder’s clear preference to play shortstop. Machado’s former third base coach in Baltimore, Bobby Dickerson, tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes Machado would move to third base if an offer to do so was the clear best offer he received in free agency. Perhaps more interestingly, Dickerson talks with Lauber about Machado’s personality, his preternatural defensive aptitude at third base and, in reference to Machado’s October villainy, his belief that Machado “is fine with being the bad boy.”

With the Winter Meetings now in the rear-view mirror, here’s a bit more on Machado and the market’s other top free agent…

  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn somewhat indirectly acknowledged his interest in both Machado and Bryce Harper on Thursday, as Bruce Levine writes for 670 The Score FM. “We are excited to be discussing impactful moves for the long term,” said Hahn of his team’s reported interest in the market’s top two free agents. “It’s good to have a seat at the table for some long impactful moves. This work does not mean anything is going to come together. … Even if we are able to convert on something big, there is a lot of work to do behind it to get us where we want to be (as an organization).” Levine suggests that an opt-out provision after three or four years would be a “significant draw” for Harper, though that much has been more or less expected for some time. Top free agents have increasingly gravitated toward the inclusion of such contracts, and several recent free-agent signings have included multiple opportunities to re-enter free agency (e.g. Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez).
  • Also via Nightengale, agent Scott Boras implied in characteristically colorful fashion that he’s not concerned about early indications that some potential suitors (e.g. Yankees, Cardinals) have limited interest or trepidation when it comes to a legitimate pursuit of Harper. “When the nurse walks in the room with the thermometer, the issue is not what the thermometer says that day,” said Boras. “The issue is what’s the health of the patient when they’re ready to leave the hospital.” The Phillies and White Sox both remain in the mix on Harper, per the report, and Nightengale speculatively suggests that the Dodgers, who are reportedly trying to move Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, shouldn’t be ruled out. Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, though, tweets that the Dodgers aren’t interested in pushing talks to 10 years on Harper. Nor, for that matter, are the Angels or Giants, each of whom has been previously mentioned as a potential dark horse.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that executives from other clubs and agents throughout the industry find it increasingly possible that the Phillies, long the presumptive favorite to sign one of Harper or Machado, could instead come away with neither in hand. Olney, too, suggests that the Dodgers’ efforts to move Kemp, Puig and other notable salaries could eventually result in the capacity to submit a winning offer to Harper. While there’s doubt that the Dodgers would offer the longest-term contract, Olney suggests perhaps a front-loaded deal with a substantial annual value from a team that has appeared in consecutive World Series would prove enticing. Meanwhile, the Yankees still present a viable threat to the Phillies for Machado as they look to close ground on the World Champion Red Sox.
  • There’s no indication that anything has changed for the Cubs, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required), who writes that the team is “close to maxing out” its baseball operations budget for the 2019 season. Rather than acknowledge a need for any sort of augmentation to the roster, manager Joe Maddon suggested that the greater issue for the Cubs is to extract better performance from the talent already in house. Along those same lines, GM Jed Hoyer spoke of the promising signs he’s seen in Kris Bryant as he looks to rehab from 2018 shoulder woes.

White Sox Interested In Adam Ottavino

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  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn says he’s not likely to add a significant starter via free agency (via James Fegan of The Athletic, on Twitter), but that evidently won’t stop him from checking in at the top of the market for relievers. The Chicago organization has “shown interest” in veteran hurler Adam Ottavino, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter. It’ll likely cost a pretty penny to reel in the talented right-hander, who is also a clear target for more obvious contenders, though perhaps the White Sox will plan to offer him and others a chance to work as the closer.

White Sox Notes: Harper/Machado, Rotation, Catcher

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The White Sox are unfazed in their pursuit of both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, but the Southsiders don’t view themselves as the favorite for either, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). The White Sox plan to meet with both Harper and Machado during these winter meetings. In their favor, Chicago’s financial ledger is clear of future obligations (save for Tim Anderson’s deal, which is guaranteed through 2022) as they approach a window to compete in the AL Central after 2019. Still, a Harper signing would be uncharacteristically rich for White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription link). There are examples of the typically-prudent Reinsdorf opening his wallet, however, most notably the signings of Albert Belle (for $55MM in 1996 )and Jose Abreu (for $68MM in 2013). Clearly, those dollar amounts pale in comparison to what either Harper or Machado will demand, but both were splashy acquisitions in their time that demanded the league’s attention in their respective winters. More rumblings on the Southsiders plans for the rest of the offseason…

  • GM Rick Hahn checked one box off his offseason to-do list with yesterday’s acquisition of starter Ivan Nova. While it’s not a landscape-shifting move by any means, it’s an important one for the White Sox, who have Nova earmarked for the innings originally allocated to top prospect Michael Kopech, per James Fegan of the Athletic (subscription link). Nova should provide reliable, if unspectacular rotation innings, much in the mold of James Shields, though Nova isn’t quite the innings-eater that Shields is (Nova’s career high in innings is 187 in 2017). Nova, with Scott Boras client Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, should make up the front four in the Sox 2019 rotation, with the fifth spot an open competition between Manny Banuelos, Dylan Covey, Jordan Stephens and perhaps a couple non-roster invitees. Hahn remains on the lookout for further rotation help, but with at least one more rebuilding season ahead, the White Sox have the luxury of patience as they continue to audition young arms for what, they hope, could be an earnestly-competitive roster by 2020.
  • Hahn is also on the lookout for a short-term catching option to add to the 2019 mix after dealing Omar Narvaez to Seattle. Their interest in Yasmani Grandal must be grouped, at present, with Machado and Harper as guys the Sox are kicking the tires on, but unlikely to lock down. They have a pair of catching prospects in Zack Collins and Seby Zavala, but there’s no reason to rush either one when one-year stopgaps like Martin Maldonado or James McCann are available, whom the Sox could happily pair with Wellington Castillo for the time being. Collins and Zavala don’t preclude a Grandal acquisition, as the latter would take some pressure of the pair of prospects, though it’s reasonable to assume Grandal’s market could see an influx of suitors when the J.T. Realmuto sweepstakes reaches a conclusion. 

Latest On J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn

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7:41pm: Both Happ and former teammate Lance Lynn are “engaged with” the Astros, Yankees, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Happ’s also continuing to draw the attention of the Phillies, while Lynn has received interest from the White Sox, according to Feinsand.

9:53am: It has seemed for the past few days that veteran lefty J.A. Happ could be the next domino to fall in the starting pitching market, and there are signs this morning that talks are advancing. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Happ’s market is “heating up,” while Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter that Happ is sitting on multiple two-year offers.

The key question remains whether Happ will secure a guaranteed third season. Passan says that he has yet to receive such an offer. Happ’s representatives have “indicated he’ll sign with the first” team that meets that asking price, however, so it seems possible that something could come together swiftly.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Happ would indeed secure that third season in a new deal, riding his solid recent track record to a $48MM guarantee. There certainly seems to be sufficient interest to support such an outcome, though organizations are understandably hesitant to commit to Happ through his age-38 campaign.

To this point, the Phillies, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Reds, Angels, Astros, Twins, Blue Jays, and White Sox have all been connected to Happ. It’s certainly not impossible to imagine a few other organizations with possible interest as well, though at present it’s tough to gauge the likeliest landing spots.

White Sox Rumors: Brantley, Machado

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Continuing to cast a wide net in their search for upgrades, the White Sox “have checked in on” outfielder Michael Brantley, Jayson Stark of The Athletic writes. To this point, the 31-year-old Brantley has spent his entire career as a member of the AL Central rival Indians, though he figures to be too pricey for the Tribe this offseason. Based on his career to date, Brantley would be a substantial upgrade for a Chicago team that received horrid production from its cast of outfielders in 2018.

  • Speaking of the White Sox, they’re among the teams that will meet with superstar Manny Machado, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. The Yankees and Phillies, two other unsurprising suitors, will also sit down with the 26-year-old infielder, Heyman adds. In total, Machado will visit four clubs in the coming days, Buster Olney of ESPN hears.

Rockies Interested In Jose Abreu

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