- Eloy Jimenez will be out of the White Sox lineup for at least “the next few days” due to a groin injury, manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media. Jimenez had to make an early exit from today’s game due to the injury, and testing will determine the severity or if Jimenez might be headed for the 10-day IL. The slugger already missed around three weeks earlier this season while recovering from an appendectomy, and a variety of injuries have limited Jimenez’s playing time over his five Major League seasons. Over 259 PA for Chicago this season, Jimenez has 12 home runs and a .269/.313/.463 slash line.
- In better injury news for the White Sox, Joe Kelly threw a bullpen session today and plans to return from the 15-day IL during the Sox/Mets series that begins on Tuesday, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Kelly was placed on the IL due to elbow inflammation on July 5, so he’ll return after a minimal stint. Secondary metrics indicate that Kelly is drastically outperforming his uninspiring 4.82 ERA, so some better bottom-line numbers over the next couple of weeks might turn Kelly into a trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline.
White Sox Rumors
Notable Draft Signings: 7/16/23
Here are the latest signings from near the top of the amateur draft board. For more on these and other prospects, check out the pre-draft rankings and scouting reports from Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
- The White Sox announced deals with 17 of their 20 draft picks, including first-rounder Jacob Gonzalez. The Sox specified that Gonzalez signed for a $3.9MM bonus, less than the $4,488,600 slot price attached to the 15th overall pick. The pundits had a pretty wide range of opinion on Gonzalez, with McDaniel ranking him sixth in the draft class and Fangraphs placing the Ole Miss shortstop 37th. Gonzalez has an unusual swing that had led to some disagreement on his ceiling as a hitter, though he is considered at least average in every tool except his below-average speed.
- The Reds signed eight more of their picks, led by second-round pick Ty Floyd. Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) reports that Floyd received a $2,097,500 bonus, which is below the $2,255,100 slot price for the 38th overall selection. McDaniel had Floyd ranked highest at 42nd on his list, calling the LSU right-hander “a strong athlete with an above-average slider” and “easy plus velo” on a fastball that can hit 98mph and usually sits in the 94-95mph range. The big fastball alone projects Floyd as at least an intriguing bullpen arm for the future, and his slider and changeup at least offer promise as plus pitches.
Reds Have Shown Interest In White Sox’s Starters
The Reds have been in contact with the White Sox as they search for rotation help, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Threads). Specific targets aren’t reported, though it’s not hard to infer which players could be of interest.
Lucas Giolito is arguably the sport’s most apparent trade candidate. The right-hander is an impending free agent and has a 3.45 ERA through 19 starts. He’s striking out a little more than a quarter of opponents against a modest 7.3% walk rate. While Giolito’s velocity and whiffs are down marginally from a 2019-21 stretch that saw him post a 3.47 ERA in 72 appearances, he has rebounded nicely from a down 2022 season.
With the White Sox now 17 games below .500, they’re predictably approaching the deadline as sellers. The Sox aren’t expected to make a strong run at re-signing Giolito, whose upcoming free agent deal is likely to easily eclipse Chicago’s franchise-record $75MM guarantee for Andrew Benintendi.
He’d be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer that would afford Chicago draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly receive more compelling prospect offers in the next couple weeks though. The Dodgers have already checked in and virtually every contender figures to be in touch with Chicago GM Rick Hahn before August 1.
Giolito is playing this season on a $10.4MM arbitration salary. Around $3.35MM will be remaining from the deadline onwards. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has indicated the club has the payroll flexibility to accommodate midseason trade targets. Rotation help is the obvious area to do so.
While Giolito would be the more appealing target for other teams, Chicago seems likely to move veteran righty Lance Lynn as well. The 36-year-old carries a career-high 6.03 ERA over 103 innings but has much better strikeout and walk marks. Lynn is fanning hitters at a strong 27.9% clip against an average 8.1% walk rate. His biggest issue, an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed, could be a tough fit at Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Still, the durability Lynn provides would be welcome for a Reds’ rotation light on experience at present.
Lynn is making $18.5MM this season. His contract contains an $18MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $1MM. With the two-time All-Star likely headed to free agency next winter, the Sox figure to look for trade possibilities this month. That’s also true of Mike Clevinger, whose contract contains a $12MM mutual option the team will likely buy out for $4MM. They could be hard-pressed to find interest in Clevinger considering the fairly lofty buyout price and biceps inflammation that has had him on the injured list for a month.
There’s less urgency on either Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech. Both pitchers are eligible for arbitration through 2025. The asking price on either player — Cease especially — would be significantly higher than what the Sox would expect for even their top rental in Giolito. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested earlier this week that Chicago could be willing to hear offers on Kopech but wasn’t interested in parting with Cease.
Cincinnati is surely in contact with a number of teams as they explore rotation possibilities. Tonight’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers dropped them into a tie with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. They’re still positioned as deadline buyers, of course, with a rotation that ranked 28th in ERA (5.69) entering play Friday standing as the big concern. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene are on the injured list. Cincinnati has rookie Andrew Abbott at the top of the rotation, followed by Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. The latter two pitchers have struggled.
The White Sox’ Quietly Dominant Trade Chip
Earlier in the week, I took a look at how the Cubs had scored big in minor league free agency and are now left with the quandary of what to do with Mark Leiter Jr. — a breakout reliever at age 32 with three years of remaining club control beyond the current season. They could sell high or hold onto him in hopes that the breakout is both legitimate and sustainable into his mid-30s. Across town, the White Sox had similarly good fortune in minor league free agency, but there’s no question of how they’ll proceed in the coming weeks.
At some point between now and Aug. 1, it’s extraordinarily likely Keynan Middleton will be traded.
Angels fans are surely familiar with the 29-year-old Middleton, who looked like a bullpen mainstay in Anaheim earlier in his career before injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery — derailed his trajectory. Fans of other clubs, however, may have never had Middleton on their radars and might be surprised to learn that he’s in his final season of club control and will be a free agent this winter. Middleton collected five years of service time prior to the 2023 season — much of it coming on the Major League injured list — despite entering the current season with just 143 2/3 big leagues innings under his belt. As such, he’s a pure rental on a fourth-place White Sox team whose GM has been candid about the team’s chances and the possibility of selling at the deadline.
At the time of his signing, Middleton didn’t command much attention. It was a minor league deal for a reliever issued by a club that had several high-priced veterans in the bullpen (Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Jake Diekman). Middleton hadn’t had big league success since his initial run with the Angels in 2017-19 and looked like a pure depth move. Even when the Sox selected him to the 40-man roster in mid-April, at a time when both Hendriks and Kelly were on the injured list, it seemed like he could just be a short-term stopgap until the Sox got healthier. And perhaps that was indeed the initial plan, but Middleton has become an indispensable member of the bullpen and emerged as a legitimate trade chip.
It’s only 32 innings of work so far, but the right-hander owns a tidy 3.09 ERA on the season. That’s a solid number on its own, but the underlying numbers are even more encouraging. Middleton averaged 94.8 mph with his heater in a short look with the D-backs last year but is back up to 96 mph in 2023 — much healthier and much closer to the 96.8 mph he averaged with the Angels prior to surgery.
There’s far more to like about Middleton than a simple resurgence in velocity. He’s fanned a hefty 31.1% of his opponents, issued walks at a slightly better-than-average 8.3% clip and racked up grounders at a huge 56.4% rate. Even more impressive are his 17.8% swinging-strike rate and 38.4% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate — top-of-the-scale numbers that rank sixth and 14th, respectively, among the 338 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 30 innings during the 2023 season. This has been the best stretch of Middleton’s career, and while the sample is small, he’s arguably been one of the sport’s best relievers in 2023.
The one knock is his 1.41 HR/9 mark, but that’s driven in part by a cozy home ballpark and a 26.3% homer-to-flyball rate that’s bound to regress; in the past decade there have only been 38 instances (out of a possible 4550) where a pitcher with at least 30 innings pitched has run a homer-to-flyball rate that high. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize in the 12-13% range for most pitchers over a large enough sample. Since 2013, the league-average homer-to-flyball rate for pitchers has fallen between 9.5% (a clear outlier season in 2014) and 15.7% (during the juiced ball season of 2019).
Skeptics might point out that Middleton has struggled over the past month, and it’s a valid concern. He’s been tagged for nine earned runs in his past 10 2/3 innings, due largely to yielding four of the five homers he’s surrendered on the season. It’s also worth pointing out, however, that the rest of Middleton’s profile during that time remains largely unchanged. He’s fanned 27.7% of his opponents, walked 8.5% of them and compiled a 55.2% ground-ball rate. Opponents are also averaging just 86.2 mph off the bat against him during that slump; he’s still rarely giving up hard contact — it’s just that a disproportionate amount of the hard contact he has yielded has resulted in a round-tripper. (For what it’s worth, four of the five homers he’s allowed this year have come in his hitter-friendly home park, too.)
There’s some degree of volatility with all relief pitching, however, and this season Middleton has done pretty much everything modern front offices love to see at a better-than-average (often elite) rate. He throws hard, misses bats at elite levels, limits walks at an average clip and ranks in the 94th percentile of pitchers (min. 30 innings) in ground-ball rate. It’s a recipe for success that checks a lot of boxes. Add in that he originally signed on a low-cost minor league deal and would be affordable for even teams with luxury tax concerns, and Middleton only sounds more appealing.
Of course, given the limited track record coming into the season and the fact that he’s a pure rental, Middleton isn’t going to fetch any club a true top-tier prospect on his own. But we regularly see teams pay relatively steep prices for relievers at the deadline, even for rental arms. The demand for Middleton should be strong, and on his own he should still be able to net the Sox a solid prospect or perhaps a younger player with some club control but no real spot on his current team’s roster.
There are multiple paths for the White Sox to explore as they mull their options with Middleton, but nearly all roads seem like they’ll lead to a trade of some sort. And while Middleton might first seem underwhelming to the fanbase that acquires him, he could wind up being one of the most impactful arms moved at this year’s deadline if he can sustain this level of pitching in the season’s final two and a half months.
Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Dodgers are among the teams showing interest in White Sox righty Lucas Giolito, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a natural fit, given the Dodgers’ need for rotation reinforcements and the White Sox’ status as likely sellers of short-term pieces. Giolito is a free agent at season’s end.
Giolito, who’ll turn 29 tomorrow, figures to be of interest to a wide variety of contending clubs. He’s in the midst of a strong season, is earning a $10.4MM salary this season, and has a strong track record dating back to his 2019 breakout. Similarly, the Dodgers figure to cast a wide net as they survey the trade market for starting pitching help. While it’s certainly of note that they’ve shown some interest in Giolito, there’s also no indication that there have been any advanced talks for the righty or that he, in particular, is being pursued more aggressively than the many other starters expected to popular the trade market. In some regards, it’d actually be more surprising to learn that the Dodgers weren’t interested in Giolito, given how logical the pairing is.
Los Angeles’ starting staff has been ravaged by injuries this season. The Dodgers have already lost Dustin May for the season (flexor surgery), and they’ve endured lengthy absences from each of Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and struggling offseason signee Noah Syndergaard. Prospect Ryan Pepiot won the fifth starter’s job in camp this spring but suffered an oblique injury at the end of camp that has kept him out for the entire first half. Ace Clayton Kershaw hit the injured list late last month due to discomfort in his left shoulder. They knew coming into the year that Walker Buehler would be out until at least September after undergoing Tommy John surgery on Aug. 23 last summer.
The Dodgers have tapped into their pitching-rich system to patch things over, already calling up top prospects Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone for their big league debuts. Miller and Sheehan are both in the rotation at the moment, as is 26-year-old righty Michael Grove, who entered the ’23 season with just 29 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Grove has been tagged for a 6.89 ERA, however, struggling at a similar level to the previously mentioned Syndergaard (7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings).
Giolito isn’t missing bats at the same level as his 2019-20 peak, when he posted a massive 32.7% strikeout rate, but his results are in line with his best prior seasons. He’s sitting on a 3.45 ERA with a strong 25.3% strikeout rate and similarly impressive 7.4% walk rate. With the exception of last year’s 4.90 ERA, which looks like a clear outlier, Giolito has posted an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53 every season since 2019. Overall, he carries a 3.80 ERA in his past 701 2/3 big league innings. The right-hander is also averaging just under six innings per start in 2023, so he’d help give a break to the bullpen of any team to which he’s traded.
The White Sox figure to seek a strong return in any trade for Giolito. He’s one of the top arms on the market — arguably the top arm — and is a clear qualifying offer candidate at season’s end if they don’t trade him. As a 29-year-old free agent with a strong and durable track record, Giolito would be a slam dunk to reject that offer and hit the open market in search of a long-term, likely nine-figure deal. In the event that he signed elsewhere, the White Sox would receive a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B in the 2024 draft (roughly in the mid-70s). In order to trade the righty, the ChiSox would need to feel they’re receiving greater value than the value of that theoretical 2024 draft selection.
Giolito recently landed in the top spot on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates — a reflection both of his on-field value and of the simple likelihood of him being traded in the next 19 days. (He also placed fourth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings late last month.) The South Siders initially only planned to make rental players available, but recent reports have suggested that they’re now open to offers on the majority of their roster, save for the young core of Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn. In either scenario, Giolito figures to be available and among the likeliest stars to change hands in the next few weeks.
White Sox Acquire Mike Mayers From Royals
The White Sox have acquired right-hander Mike Mayers from the Royals, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, with cash considerations heading in the other direction.
Mayers, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Royals in the winter and was deployed as a starter in Triple-A. He took the ball eight times for the Storm Chasers through the middle of May and posted a 6.88 ERA in 34 innings. He was selected to the Royals’ roster at that time and made six appearances, including two starts, for the big league club. He registered a 6.15 ERA through 26 1/3 innings before getting designated for assignment in the middle of June. He cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment and has been back with Omaha in a relief role in recent weeks.
The Sox are 38-54 and seem destined to do some selling prior to the August 1 trade deadline. They’re only eight games back in the weak American League Central but they would have to leapfrog three different clubs to get to the top and are even further back in the Wild Card race. It’s been speculated by many observers that impending free agents will be shopped and Lucas Giolito was recently ranked the #1 trade candidate by MLBTR for that very reason. Other pitchers like Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton, Mike Clevinger and Reynaldo López make some sense as trade candidates to varying degrees, with the club reportedly willing to deal just about any pitcher except for Dylan Cease.
If that indeed comes to fruition and the Sox ship out a few arms from their big league staff, they may need to turn to a few of their depth pitchers in the final months of the season. Mayers has mostly served as a reliever in his career but has also made a handful of starts, including this year, allowing him to potentially fill either role in the months to come. He has a career ERA of 5.21 in 262 2/3 innings dating back to 2016. If he gets selected back to the roster at any point, he is out of options but could be retained for 2024 via arbitration if the club so chooses.
Poll: What Should The White Sox Do With Tim Anderson?
The White Sox seem to be gradually accepting that this isn’t their year. A miserable 8-21 start in March and April put them in a bad spot out of the gate. They managed to stay afloat by going 15-14 in May and then 13-13 in June, keeping them near contention in a weak American League Central division. But they slid a bit further recently, going 2-6 in July prior to the All-Star break. Their overall record of 38-54 has them eight games back in the division and even further back in the Wild Card race.
As of about a month ago, it was reported that they were hoping to limit their upcoming summer sell-off to just rental players. But reporting from yesterday indicates they have widened that stance, now willing to trade just about anyone on the roster apart from Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jiménez.
One of the more interesting trade candidates they will have to consider is shortstop Tim Anderson. The extension he signed with the club back in 2017 was guaranteed through 2022 with a pair of club options. The Sox triggered the 2023 option and still have the potential to do so again for 2024.
The decision to trigger the first option was an easy one, as Anderson had emerged as a solid above-average regular for the club over the course of his deal. He was a solid speed-and-defense player in the first couple of years but subpar at the plate. He took a huge step forward in 2019 and maintained it in the years to come. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .318/.347/.473 for a wRC+ of 123, indicating he was 23% above league average. When combined with his baserunning and glovework, he was able to produce 13.6 wins above replacement in 374 games, according to the calculations of FanGraphs.
At the end of last season, the Sox had to decide between triggering a $12.5MM option for 2023 or buying him out for $1MM. With many premier shortstops earning north of $30MM annually, that price point made Anderson a bargain. Unfortunately, this year has been a nightmare for him. He’s yet to hit a home run this season and is batting .223/.259/.263 overall for a wRC+ of just 43, the worst production in the majors among players with at least 250 plate appearances. The advanced defensive metrics also consider him to be below average this year. Those metrics can be fickle on a year-to-year basis but this would be the second straight season they have all had him in the negative range.
On the offensive side of things, if one wanted to look for signs of hope, there are things to squint at. Anderson’s Statcast numbers aren’t drastically different from previous seasons. His average exit velocity of 88.3 mph is in the same range as where he’s been in recent years and is even above his career average of 87.5. His 109.6 mph max exit velo and 40.9% hard hit rate are similar to other seasons as well. His sprint feet of 27.2 feet per second is about a foot shy of his norms, but that’s not too shocking given that he missed about three weeks with a left knee sprain.
What seems to be a real factor is launch angle, which is averaging 0.5 degrees this year, well below his career average of 6.6. His 65.1% ground ball rate is well above the 42.5% league average. Anderson has always had above-average grounder rates but was at 52% for his career coming into this campaign. All of that would perhaps explain why he doesn’t have a home run and why his .284 batting average on balls in play is so far beneath the .376 mark he had during his strong 2019-2022 stretch.
Perhaps Anderson can produce better results going forward just by pounding the ball into the dirt less often. Regardless, the Sox have a few weeks to decide between a few different paths. One is to trade Anderson, which they are apparently open to doing, since he wasn’t listed as one of the players that are off-limits. However, doing so would mean selling when his value is at an extremely low ebb, given his awful results so far this year.
It’s possible that some clubs are willing to overlook the rough season and take a shot on him. The upcoming free agent class is very light on position players, meaning the crop of available trade candidates is likely to be similar. There are several contenders who could use middle infield reinforcements, such as the Giants, Marlins, Angels, Dodgers and Brewers. Those clubs may not have too many options for lining up on trades. The Cardinals will likely listen to offers on Paul DeJong, but he has his own issues with inconsistency and is no guarantee to be moved with a couple of club options remaining. Teams like the Orioles and Guardians have many infield prospects and could be open trading from their respective surpluses, but they would likely be looking to part with the players who aren’t helping them right now.
Perhaps that leads to someone making the Sox an intriguing offer, but it will undoubtedly be less than what they could have gotten in the past or could potentially get in the future. The other path would be to hang onto Anderson and hope he finishes strong enough for them to justify triggering his $14MM option for 2024 instead of the $1MM buyout. If he’s able to return to his previous level of performance, that would still be good value.
If Anderson were indeed able to get back to being a solid everyday player, he could perhaps help the club have better outcomes next year. Even if the club stayed on the outside of a playoff race, he could increase his trade value relative to where it is today. But the risk would be in hanging onto him and spending $13MM on another disappointing season. There’s also the injury question to consider, as various ailments have prevented Anderson from tallying 125 games in any individual season since 2018. He’s since battled a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger and this year’s left knee sprain.
The third path would be to sign Anderson to an extension, something he openly pined for back in February. No deal has come together up until this point and Anderson’s leverage has surely dropped dramatically since then, when he said there would be “no discounts” and that he wanted to be “treated fair.” It’s unknown if the Sox ever had any formal negotiations with Anderson’s camp, but any offers they may have made at that point would undoubtedly be dropped if talks resumed. If the club believed in Anderson’s ability to get back on track, perhaps they would try to buy low and get him to agree to a lengthier pact, though doing so would essentially carry the same risks as simply triggering his 2024 option, only more so.
Each path comes with its own upsides and downsides, depending on what the future holds. Holding onto him for 2024 or longer is the smart thing if he bounces back but the wrong move if he doesn’t, while the inverse is true of the trading path. What do you think is the right choice? Have your say in the poll below. (Link to poll for app users)
Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans
The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.
Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.
Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.
Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.
The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.
Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.
The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.
Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.
Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.
One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.
While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.
Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.
Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.
There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?
The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.
The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.
- Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
- Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
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- Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
- Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
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- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
- Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.
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- Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.
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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)
And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Rangers Interested In Lance Lynn
Losing Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi for the season left the Rangers a bit thin in the rotation, and the club is reportedly looking to fill that void with a familiar face. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Texas has a “strong interest in” right-hander Lance Lynn, who previously pitched in Arlington in 2019-20. It isn’t clear if the Rangers and White Sox are anywhere close in trade talks or if negotiations are still in an early stage this far away from the trade deadline, but Nightengale writes that Chicago has “a high asking price” for the 36-year-old.
The 38-53 White Sox are on the fringes of contention even in the weak AL Central, so barring a major hot streak after the All-Star break, Chicago will certainly be looking to sell at the deadline. As of mid-June, the club was apparently only considering moving players who will be free agents after the season, and Lynn fits that description. This is the final guaranteed season of Lynn’s two-year/$38MM contract, and the Sox hold an $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2024.
Lynn is still owed roughly $8.3MM of his $18.5MM salary for 2023, so the White Sox could either absorb most of that remaining figure in order to get a better prospect return from another team, or an interested suitor agree to take on more salary instead of giving up any significant minor leaguers. The Sox might see a Lynn deal as an opportunity simply to get some money off the books in order to reload for 2024, and the Rangers have been such aggressive spenders over the last two offseasons that it stands to reason that they won’t close the checkbook now that the team is leading the AL West.
Between Lynn’s contract situation and Chicago’s struggles, Lynn is a natural trade candidate, and was ranked 13th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade deadline candidates. Lucas Giolito, another White Sox starter heading for free agency, was ranked first, and Giolito’s trade status will surely factor into the Sox front office’s decision on Lynn. With Giolito more of a valuable asset, the White Sox could look to a Giolito deal as their opportunity to add some valuable prospects to the farm system, whereas moving Lynn might be more of an aforementioned salary dump scenario.
Of course, the elephant in the room in any Lynn trade speculation is that in terms of bottom-line statistics, 2023 is the worst season of Lynn’s 12-year MLB career. The right-hander has a 6.03 ERA over 103 innings, and no pitcher in baesball has allowed more earned runs (69) or home runs (22). Lynn’s SIERA is a much more palatable 3.74, as it takes into consideration factors like a .328 BABIP and a low 64.1% strand rate, plus the fact that Lynn’s 27.9% strikeout rate is well above the league average.
Home runs have been the big issue in Lynn’s performance, as his 20% homer rate is almost double his career 10.1% figure from 2011-22. While this is such an unusual outlier that some regression might be inevitable, it isn’t a total fluke, as batters are having much more success at maximizing their hard contact against Lynn’s pitches. His 10.5% barrel rate is by far the highest of his career, as while Lynn’s ability to generate soft contact has been a bit inconsistent, his past barrel rate numbers had been reliably above average.
To this end, Lynn might not necessarily be the Rangers’ top choice for rotation help, even if they think he can improve with a change of scenery. His previous tenure as a Ranger saw Lynn post two of the best seasons of his career, with a cumulative 3.57 ER over 292 1/3 innings in 2019-20, and the right-hander finished within the top six of AL Cy Young Award voting in both years.
Ironically, Lynn was then traded to the White Sox during the 2020-21 in something of the inverse of both teams’ current situation. That offseason, the Rangers were in rebuild mode and the Sox felt they were on the verge of contending after completing a rebuild of their own. Lynn pitched brilliantly in 2021 and helped Chicago win the AL Central, though the White Sox then fell to the Astros in the ALDS.
Texas traded Lynn just a few days after Chris Young was hired as the team’s general manager, even though Jon Daniels was still calling the shots in the Rangers’ front office as the president of baseball operations. With Young now heading into his first deadline in charge of the Rangers’ baseball ops department, he is surely looking to add the final touches to a Texas team that looks like a legitimate contender.
If Lynn can regain his old form, that would go a long way to reinforcing a rotation that has still been quite solid even without deGrom or Odorizzi. Since it doesn’t seem like Lynn’s club option will be exercised no matter which team is on come August 2, the Rangers could view him as a pure rental for the stretch run.
