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Marlins Have Shown Interest In Tim Anderson

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The Marlins are among the teams looking into White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The two-time All-Star is in the midst of a down season but could be viewed by some clubs as a buy-low, change of scenery candidate.

That’d be the hope in Miami, where the team’s in-house options at shortstop have also underwhelmed. Marlins shortstops are hitting .258/.301/.335 on the season, with Joey Wendle, Jon Berti, Garrett Hampson and Jacob Amaya all having appeared at the position. Anderson’s .245/.285/.285 line is even worse than that, though he’s hitting .378/.440/.422 since the All-Star Game and .300/.345/.350 overall this month. Beyond that, Anderson has a lengthy track record of excellence at the plate; from 2019-22, he batted .318/.347/.473, leading all qualified hitters in batting average during that time.

Anderson would be a pricey addition by the Marlins’ standards. He’s being paid $12.5MM this season and has a $14MM club option for the 2024 campaign (though a $1MM buyout makes it a net $13MM decision for the team). He’s still owed about $4.5MM of this year’s salary between now and season’s end, plus at least the $1MM option buyout.

Looking ahead to the 2024 season, Miami only has about $38MM on the books — assuming slugger Jorge Soler opts out of the remaining one year and $9MM on his contract. That’s before they pick up a $3.5MM option on Berti and before considering raises for notable arbitration-eligible players. Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers and A.J. Puk are among Miami’s arb-eligibles; Arraez, Scott and Luzardo, in particular, will be due notable raises from their respective $6.1MM, $2.825MM and $2.45MM salaries for the 2023 season. Penciling in a $14MM salary for Anderson from the jump would put Miami on track to run a $100MM+ payroll for just the third time in franchise history.

At this stage it’s far from a given that Anderson will end up in Miami — or even that he’ll change hands at all. The White Sox aren’t looking to tear the roster down and embark on another lengthy rebuild but rather are looking to retool to take another shot at contending in 2024. Anderson could well be a part of that, and a big second half would quickly restore the notion that his option is an easy call to exercise. As it stands, it’s a far closer call than anyone would’ve reasonably expected heading into the year.

That said, Chicago’s top prospect, 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, has ripped through minor league pitching since returning from a monthslong stay on the injured list. Montgomery has scarcely played above the High-A level but figures to see ample time in Double-A later this summer. It’s possible he could be ready for a big league look at some point in 2024, and the Sox could always trade Anderson and then sign/acquire a low-cost veteran to bridge the gap to Montgomery this offseason.

The White Sox already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels last night, and as of earlier this month they were reportedly willing to entertain offers on anyone other than the quartet of Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn. The Marlins, meanwhile, got into the trade game yesterday as well when they swapped Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez in an exchange of struggling relievers.

White Sox Rumors: Cease, Bummer, Lynn, Kelly

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The White Sox’ long-expected status as deadline sellers was cemented last night when they traded impending free agents Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels in exchange for prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Further deals for the South Siders between now and Tuesday’s deadline are a certainty, but a broad-reaching teardown still appears unlikely. Teams who have inquired on the availability of righty Dylan Cease, who’s controllable through the 2025 season, have repeatedly been turned away, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Cease, last year’s Cy Young runner-up, has been one of the most speculated-upon trade candidates in baseball this season, even as it’s continued to seem unlikely he’s moved. The White Sox are intent on reloading and taking another run at contending in 2024, making it far less likely that they’d deal a controllable top-of-the-rotation arm of Cease’s caliber.

The 27-year-old Cease hasn’t pitched as well in 2023 as he did in 2022. He’s sporting a solid 4.04 ERA with an excellent 28% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate through 113 2/3 frames so far this season. He’s been particularly effective over his past nine starts, however, firing 51 innings of 3.00 ERA ball while punching out one-third of his opponents and recording an improved 8.5% walk rate. Cease is earning an affordable $5.7MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility and will be due a raise on that salary next season.

Cease isn’t the only controllable arm drawing interest on Chicago’s roster. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that several contenders have expressed interest in lefty reliever Aaron Bummer despite a disastrous 6.56 ERA. Bummer’s season got out to an awful start, but he’s logged a 4.50 ERA in 24 innings dating back to May 12; five of the dozen earned runs he’s yielded in that time came in one meltdown on July 6.

Looking deeper into Bummer’s season, he’s fanned an impressive 28.3% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a hefty 54.3% clip. The 29-year-old has been plagued by a .347 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 48.1% strand rate this year, both of which figure to trend back toward his career averages of .300 and 69.5%. Bummer hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season, which isn’t sustainable, but the overall package of a hard-throwing lefty who misses bats and piles up grounders while pitching on an affordable contract understandably has appeal for contending clubs. Bummer is playing out the fourth season of a five-year, $16MM contract but can be controlled another three seasons: a $5.5MM salary in 2024 plus a pair of club options valued at $7.25MM and $7.5MM in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

As with Cease, Bummer can be a part of the White Sox’ efforts to contend both in 2024 and 2025, so there’s no guarantee he’s moved. However, reliever performance is more volatile, evidenced by Bummer’s current ERA after logging a 2.59 mark in 160 innings from 2019-22. If the Sox can get some near-MLB help that could more affordably contribute to the 2024 roster, it’s feasible they’d be open to the possibility.

At some point in the next few days, the Sox will quite likely move right-handers Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Keynan Middleton, all of whom can become free agent at season’s end (though Lynn and Kelly have 2024 options on their contracts). The Rays and Dodgers were both reported to be in talks on Lynn yesterday, and the Dodgers were tied to Kelly.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds further fuel to those rumors, writing this morning that the Rangers and White Sox discussed a trade that would bring both Lynn and Kelly to Texas yesterday. The talks didn’t gain enough traction to bring about a deal, but Texas’ interest in both pitchers highlights the number of balls the Sox have in the air and the number of paths they could take as they look to retool in the coming days.

Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez

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The Angels are pushing the chips in. The Halos swung a late-night trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox, the teams announced. Prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush are going back to Chicago.

Los Angeles declared themselves buyers this evening when they formally took Shohei Ohtani off the trade market. Once they committed to making a push in Ohtani’s final season of club control, there was little reason not to act boldly. They’ve done just that, surrendering two of their top prospects for the top rental starter available and a relief upgrade.

Ironically, Giolito and López both landed with the White Sox in the same trade nearly seven years ago. Both had debuted with the Nationals in 2016 before being included in the Adam Eaton package during that year’s Winter Meetings. They’ve spent the past six-plus seasons on Chicago’s South Side.

Giolito has developed into the more valuable of the duo. After a disastrous 2018 season, the Southern California native blossomed into an upper mid-rotation starter. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five years, including a 3.79 mark through 121 frames this season.

He has backed up that solid run prevention with above-average peripherals. Giolito is striking out 25.8% of opponents against an 8.3% walk rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 11.9% of his offerings. It’s a third consecutive season in which he’s been above-average across the board.

Giolito hasn’t quite developed into the ace it seemed he might become when he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in 2019-20. His average fastball speed is down a tick from those peak seasons, and he’s lost a few whiffs on each of his offerings. Still, the 29-year-old is a clear playoff caliber starter. He averages just under six innings per start while holding opponents to a .232/.301/.430 batting line. Giolito is effective against hitters of either handedness and has essentially avoided any major injuries in his MLB career.

That kind of durability and effectiveness should be a major boost to a Halos’ rotation that entered play Wednesday ranked 20th in the majors in ERA. Ohtani is the one pitcher allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine on the season. Reid Detmers has a 4.38 ERA but a strikeout rate north of 29% that suggests he fits well in the middle of a rotation. Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have been fine back-end arms. Tyler Anderson has underperformed in the first season of a three-year deal, working to a 5.18 ERA. He slots sixth in the Halos’ six-man starting staff, while Giolito’s addition should firmly push Jaime Barria into long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy.

Barria has been more effective out of the bullpen than when pressed into rotation work. Giolito’s acquisition indirectly upgrades the relief corps in that regard, while the addition of López helps the bullpen in a more straightforward way.

The 29-year-old righty moved to relief for good by the start of the 2022 season. He was excellent in that role last year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA across 65 1/3 frames. It has been more of a mixed bag in 2023. López carries a 4.29 ERA in 42 innings. His walks have jumped from a minuscule 4.3% clip last year to a concerning 12.4% rate.

However, the uptick in free passes has been paired with a jump in whiffs. López has punched out a career-best 29.2% of batters faced. He’s picking up swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings while averaging 98.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on the slider. López is a high-octane arm to pair with Matt Moore as setup options in front of closer Carlos Estévez. The Halos could look for additional ways of bolstering the middle innings mix between now and the August 1 trade deadline.

Both Giolito and López are firmly win-now pieces. Each is an impending free agent. Giolito is arguably the top non-Ohtani starter who’ll hit the open market. He’s on his way to exceeding nine figures. That always made it likely the White Sox — whose franchise-record expenditure is the $75MM Andrew Benintendi pact — would not re-sign him.

A midseason deal, while not unexpected, is a nice boost to Giolito’s eventual earning power. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a qualifying offer. Giolito would obviously have received one had the Sox retained him past the deadline, but he’ll now hit the open market without a signing team needing to forfeit draft capital.

The more immediate benefit, of course, is that both pitchers will get a chance to compete for a postseason spot. The Halos are four games out in the Wild Card race and seven back in the AL West. They’re clearly pushing the chips in for this season and figure to continue to be aggressive in the next few days. Adding corner infield help with Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury on the shelf and Jared Walsh struggling enough to be optioned to Triple-A makes plenty of sense; to that end, the Halos have reportedly been in touch with the Nationals regarding third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

As part of that all-in mentality, the Angels relinquished a pair of their most talented prospects. Quero is one of the game’s top minor league backstops. The switch-hitter reached Double-A by his 20th birthday and is holding his own in a pitcher-friendly setting. Over 317 plate appearances, Quero owns a .245/.385/.332 batting line. He’s only hit three home runs but is walking at a massive 17% clip while striking out just 16.7% of the time.

That kind of plate discipline is exceptionally rare for a hitter so young. The Cuban-born backstop is the sport’s #61 overall prospect at FanGraphs and 85th at Baseball America. Scouting reports predictably rave about his advanced offensive skills and suggest he has a good chance to be a regular in the long term.

The Halos already have a potential catcher of the future in Logan O’Hoppe. Acquired from the Phillies last summer, O’Hoppe has been limited to 21 big league contests because of a labrum tear in his shoulder. He’s controllable for five seasons beyond this one, though, perhaps making Quero a little more expendable to the organization.

Chicago had no such long-term answer behind the dish. Yasmani Grandal is headed to free agency on the heels of a fine but unexceptional year. It’s probably unreasonable to expect Quero to immediately succeed Grandal as the #1 backstop next season, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he could reach the majors at some point in 2024. That upper minors proximity is surely appealing to a Chicago team reloading for next year.

Bush, a 23-year-old southpaw, was also at Double-A. A second-round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2021, he ranked ninth among Angels’ prospects in Eric Longenhagen’s recent organizational rankings at FanGraphs. Both Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter) suggest the 6’6″ hurler has a chance to stick as a starter and praise his slider, though Longenhagen raises concerns about his low-90s fastball. Bush has been a little homer-prone in his first six Double-A starts but is striking out nearly 30% of opponents there.

It’s a strong return for a pair of impending free agents, with Quero the clear headliner. Yet it’s understandable the Angels would part with those players (particularly with O’Hoppe in the fold) to make a push this season. Their aggressiveness extends beyond the prospect capital, as the trade officially pushed them into luxury tax territory.

The Halos were right around the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold before the move. They’re taking on what remains of the respective $10.4MM and $3.625MM arbitration salaries for Giolito and López. That’s around $3.75MM on Giolito and $1.31MM on López. That’ll push their estimated CBT figure to around $238MM pending future additions.

It’s clear owner Arte Moreno will sign off on paying the tax for the first time. The financial penalties of doing so are rather minimal. As a first-time payor, they’ll pay a 20% tax on expenditures between $233MM and $253MM. The tax money they’re taking on with today’s trade is just over $1MM, a marginal amount in comparison to the team’s overall spending.

More notably, surpassing the CBT reduces the draft compensation they’d receive if they lose a qualified free agent. Teams that pay the luxury tax receive a compensation pick after the fourth round if a player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Clubs that stay below the threshold get a compensatory choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.

Ohtani will obviously reject a QO. If the Angels don’t re-sign him, going past the CBT means they’re moving the draft compensation back a couple rounds. That’s a risk worth taking to maximize the chances of getting to the playoffs in Ohtani’s final season of arbitration. The Angels are all-in, and while this’ll probably be their biggest move of deadline season, there’s no reason to think it’s their last.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels and White Sox were finalizing a trade of Giolito and López for Quero and Bush.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Joe Kelly

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The Dodgers are among the clubs to express interest in White Sox reliever Joe Kelly, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Unsurprisingly, Murray notes that multiple teams are in the market for the hard-throwing righty.

Kelly is one of the likeliest players to change teams within the next five-plus days. The Sox are a clear seller and will move a few impending free agents by August 1. Kelly isn’t technically a rental, as the Sox hold a $9.5MM option on his services. They’re trending towards a $1MM buyout, though, so a trade to recoup some future value seems almost inevitable.

At first glance, the 35-year-old might not seem an especially appealing trade candidate. He’s sitting on a 4.66 ERA over 30 appearances and has allowed 5.45 earned runs per nine over parts of two seasons in Chicago. There’s a fair bit of intrigue in this year’s underlying marks, though.

Kelly has struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters, while he’s inducing grounders on a massive 56.2% of batted balls. An abnormally low 57.9% left on base rate has propped up his earned run totals, but few pitchers match that combination of punchouts and grounders. While his control has been erratic throughout his career, this season’s 9.4% walk percentage is manageable. An injured list stint earlier in the month for elbow inflammation temporarily threatened his trade candidacy but he was reinstated over the weekend.

As a likely impending free agent reliever, Kelly isn’t going to bring back a franchise-altering return. Yet the Sox shouldn’t have trouble finding a trade partner, offloading some of the $9MM he’s making (around $3.24MM of which is yet to be paid out, not including the option buyout) while bringing back controllable talent.

Kelly is no stranger to the Dodgers, of course. He pitched with L.A. from 2019-21, winning the World Series in the second of those years. The 12-year veteran posted a 3.59 ERA over 105 1/3 regular season innings in Dodger blue and appeared in all three of their postseason runs during that stretch.

The Dodger bullpen ranks 18th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA entering play Wednesday. They’re 11th in strikeout percentage (24.4%) and ground-ball rate (44.7%). Los Angeles is also known to be targeting starting pitching, and they’re one of the teams reportedly in talks with the Sox regarding right-handers Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito. There’s nothing to suggest L.A. is the perceived favorite on any of Kelly, Lynn or Giolito, but it stands to reason the clubs have had at least some dialogue about a potential package deal.

White Sox Discussing Lance Lynn With Rays, Dodgers

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11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.

Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.

With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.

9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.

Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.

While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.

That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.

The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.

At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.

Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.

That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.

Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.

White Sox Outright Bryan Shaw

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The White Sox announced that right-hander Bryan Shaw has been outrighted to Triple-A Charlotte. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment on the weekend. He will have the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency, though the Sox didn’t indicate whether he’s chosen to exercise that right or not.

Shaw, 35, signed a minor league deal with the club in the offseason. He was later released after not cracking the Opening Day roster but returned on a second minor league deal. He pitched 22 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level, allowing 4.03 earned runs per nine innings. He was selected to the big league roster in early July but allowed eight earned runs in 7 2/3 innings before getting designated for assignment.

That’s obviously a small sample of work and his larger track record is far more impressive. He has a 3.97 ERA in 759 career appearances, dating back to his 2011 debut. He’s struck out 20.7% of batters faced in that time, walking 9.1% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 49.6% clip. He was an effective big leaguer as recently as 2021 when he had an ERA of 3.49, though that figure jumped to 5.40 last year and 9.39 so far this year.

All players with more than three years of major league service time or a previous career outright have the right to reject outright assignments and elect free agency. Shaw qualifies on both accounts and could head back to the open market. It’s not yet clear whether he’s done so, but if not, he’ll head to Charlotte and try to work his way back to the big leagues. The White Sox are expected to trade some members of the pitching staff between now and next week’s deadline, which perhaps could open up another opportunity for a veteran like Shaw.

Reds Notes: India, White Sox, Newman, Casali

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The White Sox have interest in Reds second baseman Jonathan India, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.  This item has some connection to a pair of other recent reports, one from last week about the Reds’ interest in Chicago’s pitchers, and an item from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand earlier today indicating that the Reds were at least open to consider moving India in a deal for controllable pitching.

However, Wittenmyer pushed back on Feinsand’s report, hearing that the Reds’ willingness to move India was “vastly overstated…and led to conversations assuring one of the most respected players in the clubhouse of the slim-to-none chance he’ll be traded.”  Listening to offers out of due diligence doesn’t translate that the Reds are particularly eager to move India, with Wittenmyer indicating that Cincinnati’s talks about India fall “into the category of there’s no such thing as an untouchable player,” rather than the front office actually shopping the second baseman.

An India trade might make sense on paper, given Cincinnati’s glut of young infield talent and the team’s strong need for rotation help for an unexpected playoff push.  That said, moving India might not be sensible from a chemistry standpoint, as Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, and Reds manager David Bell all spoke glowingly about India’s importance within the group.

“I don’t think you can really put into words what [India] means to this team,” Steer said. “He’s the guy who addresses the team after wins….He’s been through kind of every phase of what an organization goes through when they’re trying to win. He continues to be a great leader on and off the field, vocally, leading by example through his actions every single day.”

Wittenmyer cited the Brewers’ now-infamous trade of Josh Hader as an example of how a midseason deal that is sensible from a big-picture standpoint can be disastrous to the morale of a team trying to win now, as the Brewers were vocally demoralized in the wake of Hader’s move to the Padres last summer.  Obviously the Hader trade has become something of a cautionary tale for front offices, giving Reds GM Nick Krall even more to ponder he looks for ways to bolster his surprise contender.

Of course, the Reds players could warm up to a trade quickly if a major player came back to Cincinnati in return — for instance, Dylan Cease.  While Cease is one of four players the White Sox consider next to untouchable in trade talks, India (who is controlled through 2026) might be the kind of building block that might get the Sox considering moving the AL Cy Young Award runner-up.  Likewise, in what might be the middle ground between Wittenmyer and Feinsand’s reports, landing a frontline hurler like Cease would be the only scenario that might get Krall and company to part ways with India.

Lucas Giolito is Chicago’s top trade asset heading into the deadline, yet the Reds aren’t at all likely to move India for a pitcher who will be a free agent after the season.  Michael Kopech (who, like Cease, is controlled through 2025) could be an interesting target for the Reds, though Cincinnati might be wary of Kopech’s injury history.

Speaking of the Reds’ infield, Kevin Newman returned from the 10-day injured list today after a minimum 10-day absence due to gastritis.  The veteran has hit .260/.318/.375 over 225 plate appearances this season, getting a good chunk of time at third base, second base, and shortstop.  That said, Newman’s playing time has been reduced since the arrival of McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and now Christian Encarnacion-Strand in Cincinnati’s infield, and with the youngsters taking over, Newman looks like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline.

Newman’s activation was one of a few transactions made by the Reds today, as righty Levi Stoudt was optioned to Triple-A and Daniel Duarte was called up to bring a fresh arm into the pitching ranks.  More notably, catcher Curt Casali was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 21) due to a left foot contusion.

With Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile already on the active roster, the Reds aren’t short in the catching department.  Casali and Stephenson began the year in something of a timeshare behind the plate, as the Reds were trying to keep Stephenson healthy after his injury-shortened 2022 by using him regularly at DH and first base.  However, with Joey Votto’s return from the IL and the DH position being used to give at-bats to many young hitters, Stephenson has more increasingly taken on a regular catching workload, leaving Casali as an odd man out.

The 10 Teams On Lance Lynn's No-Trade List

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The two-year, $38MM extension that Lance Lynn signed with the White Sox in July 2021 also contained some partial no-trade protection, allowing Lynn to block deals to 10 teams per year.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 clubs on Lynn’s no-trade list are the Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays.  Several of those teams are known be looking for pitching as the deadline approaches, though of Lynn’s 10 listed clubs, only Tampa Bay has been linked to the veteran right-hander to date.

White Sox Activate Joe Kelly, Designate Bryan Shaw

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The White Sox announced that right-hander Joe Kelly has been activated from the 15-day injured list.  In the corresponding move, righty Bryan Shaw was designated for assignment.

Kelly was dealing with inflammation in his throwing elbow, but the issue fortunately proved to be pretty minor, as he has only been out of action since July 5.  After missing just beyond the 15-day minimum, Kelly will now return to Chicago’s bullpen for what might be a nine-day audition for rival teams in advance of the trade deadline.  This is the final guaranteed season of Kelly’s two-year, $17MM contract, and while the White Sox hold a $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2024, it is probably safe to view Kelly as a rental piece unless he performs extremely well down the stretch.

Despite a 30.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 56.9% grounder rate, and a 2.90 SIERA, Kelly’s bottom-line numbers haven’t been nearly as good as his secondary stats would indicate.  The reliever’s 4.82 ERA is almost a full two runs higher than his SIERA, and Kelly also has only a 56.6% strand rate, while a .319 BABIP has somewhat counteracted his success at keeping the ball on the ground.  Still, opposing teams are very aware of Kelly’s advanced metrics, so the White Sox figure to draw some attention from bullpen-needy clubs.

Shaw signed a minor league deal with Chicago in late April, which came on the heels of another minors contract earlier in the offseason that resulted in the White Sox releasing the veteran at the end of Spring Training.  Shaw was selected to the 26-man roster earlier this month, but he has a 9.39 ERA over 7 2/3 innings and six appearances in a White Sox uniform.  Over 276 innings since the start of the 2018 season, Shaw has a 5.35 ERA while pitching with the Rockies, Mariners, Guardians, and White Sox, and he hasn’t been particularly effective apart from a solid 2021 season in Cleveland.

Now in his 13th MLB season, Shaw has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A if he clears waivers, though it isn’t known if he’ll again test free agency, or if he’d accept an outright and remain in Chicago’s organization.  It is also possible the White Sox could release him altogether if he clears waivers, and even Shaw’s lack of results this year, it seems unlikely that another club might make a waiver claim.

Diamondbacks Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito

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The Diamondbacks are among the teams to have shown interest in White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a sensible match, given that Giolito is one of the top trade candidates this summer and the D’Backs have a need in their rotation.

The White Sox are 41-57, which places them nine games back of the division lead even in the weak American League Central. The playoff odds at FanGraphs have them down to a 1.5% chance of leapfrogging the Tigers, Guardians and Twins in order to take the crown. With just over a week to go until the August 1 deadline, it seems fair to expect them to make a few deals aimed at improving their chances in future seasons. Recent reporting has indicated the club is willing to consider deals on all players except for Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, Dylan Cease and Andrew Vaughn.

Giolito would be one of their most logical trade chips, given that he is an impending free agent and a potential playoff starter for an acquiring club. MLBTR recently placed him in the #1 slot on a list of top deadline trade candidates, a reflection of both his likelihood to be traded and his appeal to other clubs.

The righty made 72 starts over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, posting a 3.47 earned run average in that time. That figure spiked to 4.90 last year but Giolito has brought it back down 3.96 here in 2023. Across those five seasons, he’s struck out 28.5% of hitters while walking 8.2%. He’s making $10.4MM this year but only about $3.35MM will be left to be paid out at the time of the deadline.

Just about any club in need of starting pitching should have at least some interest in Giolito and he’s already been connected to the Dodgers, while the Reds have reportedly had discussions with the White Sox about their starters, which presumably includes Giolito.

There’s plenty of logic in the Diamondbacks throwing their hat in the ring, given the state of their own rotation. The club has featured a top-heavy rotation this year, with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly doing strong work at the front. Kelly is on the injured list right now due to a calf issue and could return next week, but even if that proves to be the case, that still leaves the D’Backs with plenty of questions behind the Gallen-Kelly duo.

Tommy Henry has a 3.89 ERA but it’s possible he’s lucky to have it, as his .276 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate are both on the lucky side of average. His 5.07 FIP and 5.23 SIERA suggest some regression may be in store. Ryne Nelson has made 20 starts but with a 4.82 ERA in that time. Zach Davies has a 7.38 ERA for the year and is on the injured list for a second time. Prospect Brandon Pfaadt has been given six starts but has a 9.82 ERA in those.

Despite those rotation issues, the Snakes are 54-43 and currently tied for the top Wild Card spot in the National League, in addition to sitting just two games back of the Dodgers for the division lead. Adding some pitching for the final months of the postseason race would be a logical move, something that general manager Mike Hazen admitted last month.

Although Giolito will be highly in demand, the acquisition cost in terms of the trade return might not be exorbitant since he’s a rental, at least compared to a similar pitcher with multiple years of control. Hazen also recently said that the club will likely be “aggressive” but not “reckless” at the deadline, in terms of which younger players they are willing to give up. Perhaps going after an impending free agent like Giolito would fit that plan.

Whether the Diamondbacks are willing to be aggressive enough to land a pitcher like Giolito remains to be seen. There have already been a few clubs publicly connected to him and there are surely plenty of others who have called the White Sox. For any club that comes up short, some of the other rental starters that could be available include Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen and many others.

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