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Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade

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After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.

While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.

While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.

Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.

The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…

Best Fits:

  • Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
  • Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
  • Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
  • Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.

Next Tier Down:

  • Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
  • Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
  • Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
  • Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
  • Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
  • Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/23

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Tonight marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are eligible for arbitration. This evening should also see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the night as deals are reported.

Latest Moves

  • The Orioles agreed to deals with outfielders Sam Hilliard and Ryan McKenna, reliever Keegan Akin and shortstop Jorge Mateo, as announced by the team. Mateo will make $2.7MM, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post has terms (on X) for Akin and Hilliard: $825K for the former, $800K for the latter.
  • Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has a deal for $7.9MM, Heyman reports. That’s a little above his $7.3MM projection. Yastrzemski has one additional arbitration year remaining.
  • Reliever Yency Almonte and the Dodgers have agreed to a $1.9MM salary, per Heyman. That matches his projection.
  • Lefty reliever Ryan Borucki agreed to a contract with the Pirates, the team announced. Feinsand reports it as a $1.6MM deal. He was projected at $1.3MM.
  • The Rockies have a deal with lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, Heyman reports. He’ll make $1.675MM. Recently claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay, Beeks was projected at $1.8MM.
  • The Cubs announced a deal with third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the power-hitting infielder will make $2.725MM. That’s narrowly above a $2.6MM projection.
  • Outfielder DJ Stewart agreed to a deal with the Mets, per a club announcement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports it’ll be for $1.38MM. Stewart had been projected at $1.5MM as an early qualifier via Super Two.
  • The Phillies announced deals with right-hander Dylan Covey, catcher Garrett Stubbs and outfielder Jake Cave. Terms were not disclosed.
  • The White Sox announced agreement with reliever Matt Foster on a deal for $750K, narrowly above the league minimum. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April.

Earlier Tonight

  • The Royals announced agreement with lefty reliever Josh Taylor. He’ll make $1.1MM, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Acquired from the Red Sox last winter, Taylor allowed an 8.15 ERA over 17 2/3 innings before undergoing season-ending back surgery. He was projected for a $1.3MM salary.
  • The Athletics announced today that they have agreed to one-year deals with infielders Miguel Andujar and Abraham Toro. The club claimed Andujar off waivers from Pittsburgh earlier this month and swung a deal to acquire Toro from the Brewers earlier this week. Andujar hit .250/.300/.476 in 90 trips to the plate in the majors this year while Toro appeared in just nine games at the big league level but slashed .444/.524/.778 in that extremely limited action. Andujar will make $1.7MM (Heyman link); Toro is set for a $1.275MM salary.
  • The Giants have a deal with outfielder Austin Slater for $4MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s a little north of his $3.6MM projected salary. Slater has over five years of service time and will be a free agent next offseason. The right-handed hitter is coming off a .270/.348/.400 showing over 89 games. He’s a career .285/.374/.463 batter against left-handed pitching but owns a .227/.314/.333 mark versus righties.

Eloy Jimenez Receiving Trade Interest

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The White Sox have been getting some calls about slugger Eloy Jimenez, GM Chris Getz told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (X link) and other reporters today.  There isn’t a sense that a deal might be close or that the Sox are truly inclined to shop Jimenez, but “teams are interested,” Getz said.  “It just has to make sense for both sides.”

Getz’s meeting with the media (including USA Today’s Bob Nightengale) also included a reiteration of the GM’s openness for talks, as he stated “I’ve made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.”  This follows Getz’s statement from earlier this month, when he noted that there “are no untouchables” on the Chicago roster.  We saw some evidence of this last night, when the Sox dealt Aaron Bummer to the Braves for a package of five players.

Moving Jimenez would be another matter altogether, given his higher profile as a would-be franchise cornerstone.  Signed to a six-year, $43MM deal before he’d even made his MLB debut, Jimenez has hit .275/.324/.487 with 89 homers over 1777 plate appearances in five seasons.  With a 118 career wRC+, Jimenez has certainly been good, and he has shown some flashes of greatness at the plate with particularly good numbers in 2019 and 2022.

However, Jimenez’s production has been limited by injuries, and his 122 games and 504 PA from his 2019 rookie season remain his career high for playing time.  The White Sox have given Jimenez an increasingly large share of DH time over the last two years in an attempt to keep him healthy, and this might’ve worked to a limited degree in 2023, when he made 489 PA over 120 games.  Jimenez still missed over a month of the season, but that was mostly due to a one-off issue of an appendectomy.  Still, Jimenez didn’t hit particularly well, with a modest 105 wRC+ from 18 homers and a .272/.317/.441 slash line over his 489 PA.

Because Jimenez debuted in the majors as a 22-year-old, he has still yet to reach his true prime years, as he turns 27 later this month.  The White Sox owe him $13MM in 2024 and then hold club options on his services for the following two seasons, with values of $16.5MM in 2025 and $18.5MM in 2026 (with $3MM buyouts on both options).  That makes him a nicely affordable player if he can ever stay healthy and extend his 143 wRC+ from his 327-PA 2022 season over the course of a full year.

These three years of control over Jimenez might not necessarily put him within Chicago’s timeline, however.  Despite Getz’s comments about the roster and the fact that the White Sox are reportedly planning to reduce payroll, there isn’t yet a sign that the Sox are actually going to rebuild in the traditional sense.  At the time of Getz’s hiring, owner Jerry Reinsdorf was adamant about wanting to deliver another winning team, so another retooling doesn’t appear to be in the works.

Moving Bummer allowed the ChiSox to address multiple roster holes, and a Jimenez trade could conceivably work the same fashion should Getz find a suitable offer on the table.  In some sense Jimenez’s value has been lowered by his lackluster 2023 season, yet it isn’t surprising that teams are interested considering his age, contractual control, and perhaps the sense that a change of scenery is needed for Jimenez to hit his potential ceiling.

Braves Acquire Aaron Bummer In Six-Player Deal

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The Braves announced the acquisition of reliever Aaron Bummer from the White Sox for a five-player package. Chicago acquires starters Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster, middle infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake and minor league righty Riley Gowens. All but Gowens occupy spots on their teams’ 40-man rosters.

Bummer, a 30-year-old southpaw, had spent his entire career with the ChiSox. He developed from an unheralded 19th-round selection into one of the game’s more quietly excellent setup men. Bummer broke through in 2019, when he turned in a 2.13 ERA over 67 2/3 innings on the back of an eye-popping 72.1% grounder percentage.

The following February, Chicago signed Bummer to a long-term extension. Various injuries impacted him between 2020-22, as he spent time on the shelf with biceps and lat issues in his throwing arm and a right knee strain. Bummer remained effective when healthy, turning in a 2.92 ERA over that stretch.

That strong run prevention mark collapsed this past season. Bummer was tagged for nearly seven earned runs per nine over 58 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 50+ frames, only 12 had a higher ERA than his 6.79 mark. While that’ll make this a head-scratching move for many Atlanta fans, it’s clear the front office is placing a lot more stock in Bummer’s promising underlying indicators.

Bummer struck out an above-average 29.2% of batters faced this year. He has fanned just under 27% of opponents over the course of his career. He averaged 94.5 MPH on his sinker (a solid mark for a left-hander) and missed bats against hitters of either handedness. While he’s no longer posting ground-ball numbers reminiscent of peak Zach Britton, he kept the ball on the ground at a lofty 58.2% clip. That’s the 10th-highest rate among relievers who logged at least 50 innings.

Certainly, Bummer isn’t a flawless pitcher. While he tends to keep the ball down, he gives up a fair amount of hard contact. He has well below-average control and walked over 13% of opposing hitters this past season. While an elevated batting average on balls in play was a big reason for his disappointing ’23 campaign, he didn’t do himself many favors by handing out so many free passes.

The Braves clearly feel Bummer’s results will more closely match those he managed before this year. He joins A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek as potential high-leverage options from the left side. Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez are mid-late inning righties to help bridge the gap to closer Raisel Iglesias.

If Bummer returns to form, he could be a longer-term bullpen piece. He’ll make $5.5MM next season in the final guaranteed year of the aforementioned extension. He is guaranteed a $1.25MM buyout on a $7.25MM club option for 2025, while the deal also contains a $7.5MM team option (with a $1.25MM buyout) for the ’26 season.

It’s a consolidation trade for a win-now Atlanta team that can afford to target specific players it considers finishing touches to a championship-caliber roster. The White Sox are in the opposite position. Fresh off a 101-loss season, first-year general manager Chris Getz has set out to add depth to a team that has become far too top-heavy.

Trading a reliever for five players — four of whom are MLB options — is one way of doing so. While none of the four big leaguers is near the peak of their trade value, it’s easy to envision any of them playing a role on the 2024 White Sox from day one.

Soroka may be the most recognizable name. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he earned an All-Star nod and runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2019. Soroka had pitched to a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts in his age-21 season. He looked like one of the sport’s brightest young pitching talents before his career was sidetracked by horrible injury luck.

The right-hander sustained successive tears of his right Achilles tendon nine months apart in 2020 and ’21. The injuries cost him almost two full seasons. While he returned to the mound in 2023, he struggled to a 6.40 ERA over seven big league outings. Soroka had quite a bit more success in Triple-A. Over 17 starts with their top affiliate in Gwinnett, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA with an above-average 25.9% strikeout rate. Forearm inflammation ended his season in September but is not expected to require surgery.

Soroka accrued MLB service time throughout his injury rehab. As a result, he has over five years of service and will be a free agent next winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3MM salary in his final season of arbitration. That made him a non-tender candidate for Atlanta, particularly since he can no longer be optioned to the minors. The White Sox are apparently willing to commit something in that range to see if he can recapture mid-rotation or better form.

Chicago has almost nothing in the way of rotation locks beyond Dylan Cease. Soroka now seems likely to get that opportunity. He could be joined by Shuster, a former first-round pick out of Wake Forest. The left-hander secured an Opening Day rotation spot with Atlanta a season ago. He struggled in his first MLB look, allowing a 5.81 ERA with a well below-average 13% strikeout rate over 52 2/3 innings.

Shuster had similarly discouraging numbers in Gwinnett. He was tagged for a 5.01 ERA through 16 starts with the Stripers. He struck out only 17.9% of hitters in Triple-A while walking 12.6% of opponents. While there aren’t many positives in Shuster’s 2023 performance, he’s only a year removed from ranking as one of the top pitchers in the Atlanta system. He’d posted a 3.29 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate in the minors in 2022, drawing praise for a potential plus changeup along the way.

Still just 25, Shuster could battle for a spot at the back of the Chicago rotation in Spring Training. He still has two option years remaining and has less than one year of MLB service. The Sox will hope he can put his tough debut behind him and reach the back-of-the-rotation projection of many prospect evaluators.

In some ways, Shewmake is a position player analogue of Shuster’s. He’s also a former first-round college draftee who’d generated some fanfare in Atlanta as recently as last spring. The Texas A&M product had a big Spring Training that led to some speculation he could open the season as the Braves’ starting shortstop. Atlanta rolled with veteran Orlando Arcia instead, a move that turned out well.

Not only did Arcia put together an All-Star season, Shewmake had a rough year in the minors. He hit .234/.298/.407 over 526 plate appearances for Gwinnett. He connected on 16 homers but hit only .264 on balls in play, keeping his on-base percentage down.

Scouts have questioned how much offensive upside the lefty-hitting Shewmake brings to the table. He’s soon to turn 26 and has only played two MLB games. Yet he’s a plus runner who went 27 of 28 in stolen base attempts in Triple-A. Shewmake can play either middle infield spot and has a pair of minor league options.

Adding middle infield talent was a necessity for Getz and his staff. The Sox had almost nothing at second base, relying on Lenyn Sosa and Romy González there. After buying out Tim Anderson, they were even lighter at shortstop. Shewmake could battle for a job, while Lopez seems likely to step into an everyday role at one of those positions.

The Sox are plenty familiar with Lopez from his days with the Royals. The 28-year-old has received elite grades for his defense at both middle infield spots and in more limited time at third base. It’s an all-glove profile, as Lopez has bottom-of-the-scale power. He’s a .228/.297/.284 hitter in 742 plate appearances over the past two seasons.

Lopez has between four and five years of service and is projected for a $3.9MM arbitration salary. That felt like a luxury for an Atlanta team that relies on Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Arcia and Austin Riley almost every day. It’s a more palatable sum for a team that’ll use Lopez as a bottom-of-the-lineup regular — as the Sox now seem positioned to do.

Rounding out the return is Gowens, a 24-year-old righty who was selected in the ninth round of this past summer’s draft. He pitched to a 6.30 ERA but struck out almost 28% of opponents over 12 starts during his junior year at Illinois. Baseball America praised the life on his fastball in his draft report, suggesting he could project as a reliever in pro ball.

It’s an unexpected trade made possible by the discrepancy in the organizations’ depth. Atlanta could afford to package some players who had fallen towards the back of the roster for a reliever with upside but legitimate question marks. Chicago buys low on a handful of players at positions of need, hoping that one or two can click and provide more value than they would have received out of Bummer.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Select Jake Eder, Cristian Mena

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The White Sox have selected the contracts of lefty Jake Eder and right-hander Cristian Mena, per a team announcement. Both are now protected from next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Chicago’s 40-man roster is now up to 37 players.

Eder, 25, is one of the organization’s top pitching prospects. The Sox picked up the former fourth-round pick from the Marlins in the deadline swap that sent corner infielder Jake Burger from Chicago to Miami. Eder, in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, pitched to a 3.94 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 29 1/3 Double-A frames prior to the swap but perhaps began to wear down late in the season after a lengthy layoff from pitching. He walked 15 hitters in 17 1/3 innings with the Sox following the trade and issued another 15 free passes in 17 2/3 innings of Arizona Fall League play.

Despite the shaky finish to the season, there’s little doubting Eder would’ve been selected in the Rule 5 Draft had he remained unprotected. The lefty ranked as baseball’s No. 62 overall prospect at FanGraphs in 2022 after pitching 71 1/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball as a 22-year-old in Double-A. He’ll either return to Double-A to begin the 2024 season or jump up to Triple-A — and either way that’ll put him within general proximity of reaching the big leagues.

Mena, 20, has had a meteoric rise through the White Sox’ system, splitting the 2023 season between Double-A and Triple-A. After working to a 3.80 ERA across three levels as a 19-year-old in 2022, he posted a combined 4.85 ERA in 133 2/3 innings this year. While the earned run average certainly doesn’t jump out, Mena was four years younger than the average age of his Double-A opposition and nearly seven years younger than his average opponent in Triple-A. Despite that youth and lack of experience, he managed a 26.9% strikeout rate. His 11% walk rate speaks to a need to hone his command, but Mena has a heater that reaches 96 mph and a curveball that Baseball America (who ranks him sixth among Chicago prospects) touts as a plus pitch.

Yankees Notes: Nola, Yamamoto, Peralta, Bailey

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While hitting upgrades have dominated the Yankees’ offseason narrative to date, the team is certainly also keeping an eye on the pitching market, including some top-shelf names.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via X) writes that the “Yankees are among the most active teams” exploring pitchers thus far, with such names as Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on their list of targets.

The Yankees’ interest in Yamamoto is well known, and while Nola is a new face linked to the Bronx Bombers, it makes perfect sense why Nola would be of interest.  No opponent would relish facing Gerrit Cole and Nola in a short playoff series, and Nola’s durability would be a significant boost to a New York rotation that has some question marks heading into 2024.  Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were plagued by injuries last season, Clarke Schmidt has only one full season as a big league starter under his belt, and Michael King (who is being tapped to remain in the rotation) has even less experience as a starter.

If everyone is healthy and if King and Schmidt can pitch as well as they did in 2023, this could be one of baseball’s best rotations on paper.  However, signing Nola, Yamamoto, or another stabilizing force to the front end of the staff would both clear up some of the uncertainty, and perhaps allow the Bombers some more flexibility with their other offseason moves.  For instance, younger pitchers like Yoendrys Gomez or Randy Vasquez might become trade chips, or perhaps even Schmidt might be shopped to land a bat.  While King will be given every opportunity to stick as a starter, the Yankees would be more open to reinstalling him as a bullpen weapon if they were more comfortable with the rest of their rotation.

Of course, it should be noted that signing Rodon last winter was supposed to deepen the rotation, but Rodon was ineffective in the first year of his six-year, $162MM contract.  Rodon’s struggles won’t preclude New York from again spending big on a starter, though it might change the general focus of their search.  For instance, Nola has averaged just under 199 innings pitched in each of the last five full MLB seasons, so he has a much longer track record of good health and consistent success.

The Yankees’ pitching endeavors also reach to the bullpen, as Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports that the club has interest in re-signing Wandy Peralta, though the left-hander hasn’t yet been presented with a formal offer.  Peralta has a 2.82 ERA over 153 innings with the Yankees since being acquired in the Mike Tauchman trade with the Giants in April 2021, and he is among baseball’s best at keeping the ball on the ground with a 56.3% grounder rate over the last three seasons.  While a .256 BABIP has helped Peralta’s cause, he is also very good at limiting hard contact, making it easier for his fielders to handle any balls in play.

This grounder-heavy arsenal and a relative lack of strikeouts makes Peralta prone to outperforming his peripherals, though he took this to extremes in 2023.  Peralta’s 2.83 ERA and .293 xOBA were well below his 4.44 SIERA and .332 xwOBA, and his walk rate (which has usually been below average anyway) spiked to a dismal 13.2%.  It could just be a one-year blip that it probably won’t be enough to prevent Peralta from landing a multi-year free agent deal, yet it does serve as a potential red flag for suitors.  Since the Yankees know Peralta better than any other club, their continued interest is perhaps a sign that they don’t see the control issue as a long-term problem, or it could be the Yankees are just monitoring Peralta to see if he can be retained at a relative bargain price.

In some Yankees news off the field, Andrew Bailey interviewed with the team on Monday about the bench coach job, according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman.  Bailey is no stranger to the Bronx, as his eight seasons as a big league pitcher included a stint with the Yankees in 2015.  Formerly the Giants’ pitching coach for the last four seasons, Bailey is now out of contract and is known to be getting consideration from not just the Yankees as a bench coach, but also from the Orioles and Red Sox as a pitching coach candidate.  Sherman adds that the Marlins also have interest in Bailey as a pitching coach, and that Bailey “turned down an opportunity to be considered by the White Sox” for an unspecified role.

Dennis Higgins Passes Away

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Former MLB pitcher Dennis Higgins passed away last week, according to an obituary from a Missouri funeral home. He was 84.

Higgins was a Jefferson City native who entered the professional ranks out of high school. He signed with the White Sox as an 18-year-old in 1958. The right-hander would spend the next eight seasons in Chicago’s minor league ranks. He reached the big leagues in 1966, turning in a solid rookie year out of the Sox’s bullpen.

In 42 appearances, he posted a 2.52 ERA. As was the case with many relievers of the time, Higgins frequently shouldered multiple innings. He logged 93 frames, picking up 86 strikeouts. In a season in which the average reliever posted a 15.5% strikeout rate, Higgins fanned 23.1% of his opponents.

That would prove to be his best season. Higgins’ control gave him problems from that point forward. He nevertheless managed a sub-4.00 ERA each year from 1968-72 (albeit in a very pitcher-friendly era for baseball). Along the way, the 6’3″ hurler was traded three times, while his contract was sold on two other occasions.

Higgins wound up pitching for the White Sox, Washington Senators, Indians and Cardinals over a big league career that spanned parts of seven seasons. He won 22 games and worked to a 3.42 ERA in 410 1/3 innings. Higgins recorded 339 strikeouts and finished 120 contests. While the save wasn’t introduced as an official stat until midway through his career, he was retroactively credited with 46. MLBTR sends our condolences to Higgins’ family, friends and loved ones.

Lee Richard Passes Away

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Former big league infielder Lee “BeeBee” Richard recently passed away, per an obituary from Serenity Life Celebrations out of Waco, Texas. He was 74 years old.

Richard was born in Lafayette, Louisiana in 1948. He attended Southern University and A&M College in Baton Rouge, getting drafted by the White Sox in 1970. He played for the Sox from 1971 to 1975, getting traded to the Cardinals prior to 1976 for Buddy Bradford and Greg Terlecky. He was released after one year in St. Louis and didn’t make it back to the big leagues in subsequent seasons.

He finished his career having played in 239 games across five seasons. In 535 plate appearances, he recorded 83 hits, including 12 doubles, six triples and two home runs. He scored 71 runs and drove in 29, also stealing 12 bases. He mostly played shortstop but also some second base, third base and outfield.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Richard’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

White Sox Not Expected To Match Franchise-Record Payroll

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After a dismal season, the White Sox enter the winter with weaknesses throughout the roster. First-year general manager Chris Getz is tasked with turning things around. He may have to do so with a tighter budget than was afforded to the front office last offseason.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the ChiSox opened 2023 with roughly $181MM on the books. That’s around $12MM shy of their ’22 figure, the highest in franchise history. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reports that the Sox are unlikely to match the franchise-record mark and suggests they could scale back relative to their ’23 spending level as well.

While that’ll be disheartening news for the fanbase, it’s worth noting that could still leave Getz and his front office with a decent amount of leeway. Chicago has around $84.5MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024. The arbitration class is projected for around $17MM. There’s a significant gap between the roughly $101MM they have committed for next season and the $180-190MM range. Even if ownership is unwilling to push back to those levels, there could be room for Getz to make multiple free agent acquisitions.

How advisable attacking the middle tiers of free agency would be for the organization is another matter. Getz flatly acknowledged the roster is “not a well-rounded club” at this week’s GM Meetings. Dylan Cease is the team’s lone above-average starting pitcher. Michael Kopech is the only other in-house option who seems likely to occupy a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Chicago offloaded a few veteran relievers at the trade deadline. While a sensible course of action, they’re left without much beyond Gregory Santos, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet.

The position player group is similarly top-heavy. Luis Robert Jr. is a star center fielder. Andrew Benintendi is locked into left field for the second season of a five-year contract. Andrew Vaughn figures to get another crack at first base. Eloy Jiménez and Yoán Moncada have had productive seasons in the past but are coming off disappointing campaigns. Chicago could use multiple middle infielders after buying out Tim Anderson. Rookie right fielder Oscar Colás struggled in his first big league action. Korey Lee isn’t likely to provide much offensively if the Sox give him an opportunity at catcher.

Addressing that all in one offseason would be difficult regardless of the budget. It doesn’t appear as if the club will orchestrate a complete teardown and rebuild, although Getz has pushed back against categorizing anyone as truly untouchable. The first order of business was reshuffling the coaching staff under second-year manager Pedro Grifol. With that complete, the front office takes on the much more challenging task of reshaping a very flawed roster.

White Sox Eyeing Short-Term Veterans At Shortstop

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For the first time in seven years, the White Sox appear likely to head into a season with someone other than Tim Anderson penciled in as their primary shortstop. The Sox bought out Anderson’s $14MM club option, and while a potential reunion isn’t entirely off the table, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that new GM Chris Getz is looking for a veteran option with good defensive skills who can be signed on a short-term deal. The idea would be for that veteran pickup to serve as a bridge to top prospect Colson Montgomery, who’s on track to make his MLB debut at some point in 2024.

Anderson turned in some strong defensive seasons early in his career, but metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved have soured on his glovework in recent years. He’s seemingly acknowledged as much, expressing a willingness to move to second base if need be. In all likelihood, Anderson no longer fits the description of what Getz is targeting for this role.

[Related: Previewing the 2023-24 Free Agent Class — Shortstops]

It’s a bleak crop of free-agent shortstops, though there are certainly a fair number of glove-first options who’d fit this billing. Longtime D-backs shortstop Nick Ahmed has been one of the sport’s premier defenders at the position since making his big league debut a decade ago. He’s never been a big threat at the plate — although he hits lefties fairly well — and shoulder injuries have tanked his past couple seasons. He missed almost the entire 2022 season due to surgery and hit just .212/.257/.303 in 210 plate appearances before being released by Arizona.

That said, Ahmed did manage a .257/.319/.428 batting line from 2019-20. He’s a career .257/.309/.430 hitter against southpaws. He also ranks eighth among all big leaguers, regardless of position, with 79 Defensive Runs Saved since 2015. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting him with a sensational 111 Outs Above Average in that time — second among all Major Leaguers, trailing only Francisco Lindor.

Elsewhere on the market, Paul DeJong has a long track record of quality glovework at shortstop, though his bat has wilted after a strong three-year run to begin his career in 2017-19. Since 2020, he’s turned in a grisly .200/.273/.352 batting line in 1213 trips to the plate. He was traded from the Cardinals to the Blue Jays at this year’s deadline but cut loose both in Toronto and later by San Francisco. DeJong was hitting .233/.297/.412 at the time of the trade but posted a disastrous .129/.128/.183 output between the Jays and Giants.

Speaking of the Giants, longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford’s contract expired at season’s end. He’s a free agent for the first time in his career and would certainly provide the Sox with a plus glove on a short-term deal, though he hasn’t yet made up his mind on whether he’ll continue his career into the 2024 season, tweets Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. Even if Crawford doesn’t retire, the soon-to-be 37-year-old might prefer to join a team with a clearer path to the postseason, if such an opportunity presents itself.

There are other options to consider. A reunion with Elvis Andrus could make some sense, and there are buy-low options like Amed Rosario to consider. Perhaps the Sox could pursue a multi-position option with some shortstop experience; Gio Urshela, Joey Wendle and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all available. Urshela and Wendle have played more third base than shortstop, however, while Kiner-Falefa logged just eight innings there in ’23 and Rosario hasn’t turned in particularly strong defensive grades overall.

Whoever takes the reins, he’ll do so knowing that one of the sport’s top prospects is breathing down his neck. Montgomery, 21, posted a .287/.456/.484 batting line across three minor league levels in 2023 and ranks among the game’s top 20 prospects at FanGrahps (No. 12), Baseball America (No. 14) and MLB.com (No. 17). He climbed as high as the Double-A level in 2023 and will open the 2024 season either back at that level (presumably for a brief stint) or in Triple-A. Montgomery was the No. 22 overall pick in the 2021 draft, and he’ll get the opportunity to prove he can be the South Siders’ shortstop of the future before long.

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