Alex Wood Suffers Setback
Reds left-hander Alex Wood had finally been moving toward his 2019 debut, but that’s now on hold. Wood “felt some soreness” while stretching and will see a doctor for a follow-up appointment, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
Wood, out all season because of back issues, had been scheduled for his first rehab start this Thursday. He was supposed to throw a bullpen session Tuesday in preparation for that outing, but it didn’t occur because of his soreness.
This is hardly the first setback of 2019 for Wood, who has been battling back troubles since late February. Those problems have stopped the 28-year-old from helping the Reds, who landed Wood as one of their key offseason acquisitions, and from making a case for a payday in free agency during the upcoming winter. Plus, while the 36-40 Reds are potentially lining up as sellers entering the July 31 trade deadline, it appears they can forget about flipping Wood for anything remotely valuable.
Wood came to Cincinnati last winter as one of the hurlers who was supposed to fix what had been a terrible rotation. Hoping Wood would help rescue their starting staff, the Reds acquired him in a late-December blockbuster with the Dodgers. Six months later, Cincy’s rotation has taken sizable steps forward, but Wood hasn’t been able to contribute at all.
Wood, to his credit, still owns an impressive 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP in 803 1/3 career innings divided between Atlanta and LA. However, it continues to look as if Wood will have a hard time building on his 2019 salary of $9.65MM if he reaches free agency in the coming months.
Injury Notes: Soroka, Manaea, Gennett, Wood
Braves right-hander Mike Soroka was removed from today’s game after being hit by a pitch by Austin Voth. Soroka was struck in his right forearm, and while he took his base and finished the inning, he didn’t return to the mound in the bottom half of the frame. The team announced that Soroka was removed “as a precaution,” and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that x-rays on Soroka’s forearm were negative. It doesn’t appear as if the injury is too serious, which is undoubtedly a big relief for both the Braves and the rookie sensation. While advanced metrics indicate that Soroka’s grounder-heavy (57% ground ball rate) arsenal is due for some regression, his 2.07 ERA over 78 1/3 innings has been a huge boost to an inconsistent Atlanta rotation.
Here’s more on some injury situations from around the game…
- After throwing 60 pitches in a simulated game on Thursday, Sean Manaea‘s rehab has been halted after the southpaw reported soreness in his right side, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other media. “He’s got a little bit of a side soreness, so we’re shutting him down for a little bit. I don’t know if it’s an oblique or if he’s just feeling it a little bit in his side,” Melvin said. “We’re cutting back on him for a little bit here to get healthy. It’s not the arm, which is good.” There isn’t any known timetable for when Manaea could begin throwing again, though Melvin didn’t seem to consider the issue to be major. The A’s were projecting a possible return for Manaea after the All-Star break, as the left-hander was slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment following his last simulated outing. Manaea hasn’t pitched since August 24, 2018 after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
- Scooter Gennett‘s rehab assignment shifts from high-A ball to Triple-A this week, and Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “there’s a chance” Gennett could be activated off the injured list on Friday, when the Reds begin a series against the Cubs. The club will be as careful as possible with Gennett’s recovery process, of course, as the second baseman has yet to play this season due to a severe groin strain. Gennett’s minor league rehab stint can last up to 20 days in length, and he only just got back on the field earlier this week.
- Alex Wood, another Reds player who has yet to see action this season, is scheduled for his first rehab start on Thursday, Bell said. Back problems have kept Wood out of action since late February, and he isn’t expected to be a candidate to join Cincinnati’s roster until after the All-Star break. “We can’t rush it and he hasn’t had a Spring Training. We have to build him up,” Bell said.
Wandy Peralta Switches Agencies
Reds left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta has hired The MAS+ Agency to represent him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
The 27-year-old Peralta debuted in 2016 with the Reds, who signed him as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. The hard-throwing Peralta showed promise in 2017, his first extensive look in the majors, but he has fallen off since then. Peralta now owns a 4.89 ERA/4.64 FIP with 7.26 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent groundball rate in 140 innings. He hasn’t been able to completely stifle same-handed batters, who have hit .254/.349/.386 against him since he debuted in the bigs.
While Peralta’s numbers aren’t anything to write home about, his agency switch is relevant because he’s on track to reach arbitration for the first time during the upcoming offseason. Peralta’s also on schedule to hit free agency after the 2022 campaign.
MLBTR will note Peralta’s agency change in our Agency Database. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Reds To Maintain 2019 Spending Levels Into 2020
The Cincinnati Reds grabbed headlines this winter by announcing an increase in payroll and subsequently trading for an LA starter kit that included Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Kyle Farmer. In terms of on-field contributions, the move hasn’t exactly been a rousing success for the Redlegs. Wood has yet to pitch for the Reds because of a back injury. Puig’s .235/.280/.446 line has been accompanied by strikeout and walk rates moving in the wrong direction. Kemp chipped in -0.9 rWAR in 60 at-bats before his unceremonious release. In fact, whether by rWAR (0.6) or fWAR (0.3), Farmer has been the strongest contributor of the bunch.
And yet, while this buy-three-get-one-free deal brought Wood (~$9.65MM), Puig (~$9.6MM), and Kemp ($21.75MM) on relatively hefty deals, importantly, none carry financial obligations following the 2019 season. The players themselves may move on, but the payroll increase is likely to stay, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The Reds see a window of contention now, and they want to capitalize. With only a little more than $57MM currently on the payroll for 2020 (per Roster Resource), count the Reds as buyers in free agency. They entered 2019 with a record-high $133MM payroll.
Of course, the Reds top two offensive contributors in rWAR this season are two players brought in on minor league deals: Derek Dietrich and Jose Iglesias. They may be ready to spend, but as they found out last offseason, that’s not always as easy as it sounds. Still, along with this week’s earlier report that said the Reds were in the market for a controllable hitter, it seems the Reds are itching to make an impact move.
Reds Reportedly “Open To Adding A Controllable Hitter”
The Reds are “open to adding a controllable hitter” this summer, according to a recent report from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).
This bit of scuttlebutt seems mostly to reflect a few self-evident realities about the Cincinnati org’s situation. The Reds have steadily moved back into plausible contention in the National League Central and the NL Wild Card race. The club’s pitching staff has generally performed admirably while its bats have been surprisingly silent. Looking up and down the 2019 stat sheet, you’ll find a whole lot of average or worse hitters on this Cincinnati club.
Doing the math … Quite a few obstacles still separate the team from the postseason, so a present-and-future move would arguably be most sensible. Outwardly, at least, the lineup is an area for improvement. x+y = “controllable hitter.”
But does that really tell us anything about how the Reds will actually approach the deadline? For one thing, there’s still ample uncertainty in the team’s actual competitive position. It’s not hard at all to imagine the club slipping into the status of a rental seller, or stepping up to be a clear rental buyer. The Reds already invested in a series of one-year assets over the winter, so why wouldn’t they consider more if they are in relatively strong position come late July? Even if the club won’t go wild for the best rental pieces, it could certainly see value in some added relief depth and bench bats that make for nice platoon fits.
Neither is the area of need fixed in stone. Entering the year, the questions were in the pitching staff; some may yet arise. While Alex Wood has been sidelined (he’s now on the road back), the team has been quite fortunate to sport a five-man rotation unit that has taken all but one of the team’s starts and performed beyond expectations. The bullpen has been excellent but isn’t without potential questions of its own. Meanwhile, the talented slate of hitters may — some might argue, probably will — get things going in earnest. Rental bat Yasiel Puig is doing just that. Ditto Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, and Nick Senzel, each of whom joined Derek Dietrich in posting a strong past thirty days at the plate. (That includes Dietrich’s late-May burst; he has slumped of late.) Let’s not forget that Scooter Gennett is now on a rehab assignment, too.
It isn’t entirely obvious what position would best be targeted, either. You could say catcher, but good luck finding a quality, controllable bat in that spot. The outfield is far from perfect, but it looks increasingly accounted for with Puig and Winker hitting alongside Senzel. With Gennett’s return, Dietrich may need to find more of his opportunities on the grass. The left side of the infield isn’t exactly mashing, but Eugenio Suarez is a fixture at third and Jose Iglesias has provided excellent value at shortstop.
It’s always worth paying attention to indications of a team’s own assessment of its needs. But this particular early signal seems a bit too vague to have all that much informational value in divining the shape of the summer trade market. The Reds are certainly an interesting team to watch. They may well end up in a sort of opportunistic hold position, standing pat with most current MLB assets while exploring the addition of a controllable hitter at some position or another. But it seems just as likely that the club will end up simply selling a few of its pending free agents or buying a couple of veteran bench pieces.
Reds Were Runners-Up For Albert Pujols In 2011-12 Offseason
The Angels are making a rare interleague visit to St. Louis this weekend, marking Albert Pujols‘ first on-field visit back to his former city since he left the Cardinals following the 2011 season. He could have been a much more frequent visitor to Busch Stadium, however, if he had remained within the NL Central, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Reds were the proverbial mystery team that came closest to keeping Pujols away from the Angels in free agency.
Cincinnati offered Pujols a ten-year, $225MM offer, which fell just short of the ten-year, $240MM contract Pujols ultimately accepted from the Angels. The Marlins actually offered more money than either the Angels or Reds, though Pujols turned down Miami’s ten-year, $275MM offer out of concerns that the contract didn’t contain a no-trade clause, and as Nightengale puts it, “Pujols [was] fearful of the Marlins being the Marlins.”
Walt Jocketty was the Reds’ general manager at the time, and had a long relationship with Pujols due to Jocketty’s time as the Cardinals’ GM from 1994 to 2007. “We thought we were going to get him,” Jockey told Nightengale. “We thought he would certainly give our organization a lift with his presence, on and off the field.”
After suffering through nine consecutive losing seasons from 2001-2009, the Reds won the NL Central in 2010 but were then unceremoniously swept out of the NLDS by the Phillies (a series that saw the Reds become just the second team to be no-hit in a postseason game, after Roy Halladay shut them down in Game One). That taste of the postseason gave way to a disappointing 79-83 record in 2011, which led to an aggressive offseason for Jocketty’s front office. Cincinnati added Mat Latos and Sean Marshall that winter, and indeed went on to regain the NL Central crown in 2012 and then reached the playoffs again as a wild card team in 2013.
Needless to say, adding Pujols would have been by far the biggest possible transaction for the Reds, and the signing would’ve had an incredible ripple effect on recent baseball history. The player who would’ve been most notably impacted, of course, is Joey Votto. Aside from six games as a left fielder in his rookie year, Votto has never played anywhere besides first base and (in interleague games) DH in the majors, and a position change would’ve seemingly been unlikely. While Pujols had played a handful of games at third base for St. Louis in 2011, that marked his first action at the hot corner since 2002, so he wasn’t going to be moved away from first base.
The most plausible scenario of a Pujols signing is simply that Votto would have become an enormous trade chip for the Reds. Votto had already established himself as a star, and since he wouldn’t have become a free agent until after the 2013 season, the Reds could have netted a hefty return for his services.
As things turned out, the Reds ended up spending their exact planned investment on Pujols into a new extension for Votto, inking him to a ten-year, $225MM deal covering the 2014-2023 seasons (after Votto’s original three-year deal with Cincinnati was up). This wasn’t the only money the Reds splashed around that spring, as they also extended Brandon Phillips on a six-year, $72.5MM contract.
It’s hard to argue that keeping Votto over Pujols was a bad move for Cincinnati, as Votto has decidedly outhit Pujols over the last nine seasons. There’s even some question as to whether Pujols could have even remained on the field if he had stayed in the National League, as the slugger said his decision to join the Angels “worked out perfect for me….With all of the injuries and everything that happened to me, it was the best-case scenario for me playing in the American League with a DH. It hasn’t been the best years of my career, but I’m still producing.”
Still, it’s worth at least guessing at how a Pujols-in-Cincinnati scenario could have developed. For one, the Reds would’ve had Pujols off their books following the 2021 season, whereas they’re still committed to Votto through 2023 (and Votto’s power numbers have dropped precipitously over the last two seasons). In terms of shorter-term results, who knows if the combination of Pujols and whatever pieces the Reds could have obtained in a hypothetical Votto trade could have put the Reds over the top in 2012 or 2013, though Pujols missed a big chunk of the 2013 season once his foot problems began to worsen.
Of course, who knows — maybe the Pujols-led Reds would’ve lost the 2012 or 2013 World Series to whichever team Votto ended up joining. His availability that winter creates a whole new set of alternate realities, as one can not only look back at the 2011-12 free agent market for teams in need of first basemen, but it’s quite possible that teams without a defined need at first might have changed their plans if Votto was on the table (in the same way that the Reds weren’t seen a suitor at all for Pujols).
Pujols signed with the Angels in early December, so if he signs with the Reds in this fantasy scenario, that gives Cincinnati much of the offseason to market their younger first baseman. Maybe it’s Votto who ends up in an Angels uniform after the Halos missed out on their top free agent choice. The 2011-12 offseason saw the Marlins splurge on Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell in free agency, so maybe they could’ve decided to augment those free agents with a first baseman in a Votto trade? If Votto is still a Red in late January 2012 when Victor Martinez tears his ACL, would the Tigers have spoken to the Reds about Votto rather than sign Prince Fielder? The possibilities are endless.
Health Notes: Zimmermann, Nimmo, Marlins, Smith, Wood, Dozier
Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, currently on the mend after suffering a UCL sprain, looks to be nearing his return, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. On Thursday, Zimmermann threw 4 2/3 innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Toledo, coming away pleased with the 69 pitches he threw and declaring his readiness to rejoin the Major League rotation for his next start. Whether that will actually come to fruition is up to the Tigers’ brass, though manager Ron Gardenhire seemed hesitant to welcome back a pitcher whose limited workload could lead to more bullpen days, which the team is trying to avoid. Regardless, the 33-year-old’s return looks to be just around the corner, certainly a promising development for a team that has had to patch together a starting staff after withstanding injuries to four-fifths of its Opening Day rotation.
Here are the latest updates on other injuries from around baseball…
- Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is going to consult more specialists about the bulging disc in his neck, tweets Tim Healey of Newsday. Nimmo has been sidelined with that same injury since May 20, and the latest is a troubling development for an organization that has been maligned for its handling of players’ injuries. At this time, there is still no timeline for when Nimmo might be cleared to return.
- Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith has been cleared to begin a throwing program, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Smith landed on the 10-day IL on June 7 thanks to inflammation in his left hip, but it doesn’t appear that the injury will keep him out much longer, as Smith is on track to return in late June. The 27-year-old southpaw has quietly emerged as a promising starter for the Marlins, having struck out 82 batters in 62 innings of work. Over the last two seasons in Miami, Smith has posted an impressive 3.83 ERA in 143 1/3 innings.
- Hunter Dozier will spend the next three days rehabbing with the Royals‘ Double-A affiliate, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com, who adds that Dozier will later join Triple-A Omaha after the birth of his child. The next step following that is to work his way back to the MLB club, which is good news for the Royals, who originally tabbed Dozier to return in late June. It looks like that timeline is still a realistic target for the third baseman, who has emerged as one of Kansas City’s few untouchable pieces and an All-Star candidate in the American League.
- Another promising update for the Reds, with left-hander Alex Wood nearing a rehab assignment, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, who tweets that the southpaw has a live BP session on Tuesday, which could lead to a minor-league rehab stint if all goes well. Wood, 28, has been dealing with lower back soreness that has put his Reds debut on hold. However, it looks as if that time could come around the All-Star break for the former Dodger.
Scooter Gennett To Begin Rehab Assignment Monday
Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett will begin a rehab assignment at the High-A level Monday, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Barring setbacks, Gennett will have as many as 20 days to rehab.
This has been a long-awaited development for Gennett, who hasn’t played this season as a result of a right groin strain he suffered March 22. The injury has deprived the Reds of one of the game’s most valuable second basemen in recent years. Across 1,135 plate appearances from 2017-18, Gennett hit .303/.351/.508 with 50 home runs. He ranked third at his position in wRC+ (124) and sixth in fWAR (6.7) during that period.
Even with Gennett on the shelf for two-plus months, the Reds have gotten impressive production at the keystone. Offseason minor league signing Derek Dietrich has given the team a .236/.339/.559 line (136 wRC+) with 17 homers and 1.7 fWAR through 183 PA. The lefty-swinging Dietrich has been mired in a slump over the past couple weeks, however, and is only an option against right-handed pitchers even when he’s producing.
Although Gennett’s a fellow lefty hitter, the Reds should be able to deploy him and Dietrich in the same lineup fairly often. After all, one of Dietrich’s selling points is his defensive versatility. Aside from manning second, Dierich has totaled nine appearances each at first base and in left field this year.
Dick Williams On The Reds’ Deadline Approach
The 30-37 Reds sit tied for last in the talent-rich NL Central, but the team’s white flag still hangs far from full mast, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores. President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams, who embarked on a full-scale rental shopping spree last offseason, acquiring Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, the now-departed Matt Kemp, and Tanner Roark in win-now moves intended to revitalize a listless fanbase, explained his reasoning in a series of quotes for the piece.
“Our only focus right now is to get the most out of these guys, win and improve the roster where we can,” Williams said. “Right now, we’ve got Wood and Gennett as planned additions to the team. That’s two pretty good boosts. We still feel like this is very much an upwards trajectory. The potential is there for this team, this group of guys.”
Though it’s certainly conceivable that Scooter Gennett and Alex Wood, each still at least two weeks away from returning, with the latter perhaps closer to a month or more, could be the catalysts to jumpstart a sputtering Cincinnati club into gear and overcome the team’s long playoff odds (3.5%, per FanGraphs’ latest estimate), the rational outlook has the team entering preparations to sell, a fact of which Williams is surely aware. “There will be decisions to be made,” Williams noted, with the hard-to-ignore subtext hovering.
Puig, Wood, and Gennett entered the season as the team’s three most obvious trade chips, should the team’s course head south, though none of the trio now figures to net the return Cincy was surely banking on. Puig has endured easily the worst season of his career to this point, slashing just .222/.264/.393 (66 wRC+) while flashing little of his trademark ball-hawking in right field. Though Wood’s injury isn’t of the elbow, forearm, or shoulder variety, his history in that area is checkered, and contenders are unlikely to offer much for a rental mid-rotation starter just a week or so back from a three-month stint on the IL. Gennett’s value suffers from the same malaise as does Wood’s, though second-base offense around the league has slumped a bit this year, and his left-side thump may be just the plug a team with a gaping hole at the keystone needs.
Roark has thus far been excellent for the club, striking out batters at a career-best rate en route to a sterling 1.6 fWAR in 13 early-season starts. Deeper peripheral marks are unconvinced, though, as Roark’s 7.0% HR/FB is easily the lowest of his career, and his typically-high grounder rate has plummeted to far below league-average depths at 33.5%. His mid-to-back-end track record, too, likely won’t have teams champing at the bit to get a piece, especially with just two-plus months remaining on his deal at the time of a prospective deal.
The best course of action, then, may be for the Reds to consider perhaps-discounted extensions with at least a few of their free-agents-to-be. “We’re getting to that point where at least you want to put it on the table and start to see if there is mutual interest,” Williams said, while taking care to note that there’s “no urgency” on that front. Cincinnati did gift another offseason acquisition, Sonny Gray, with a longer-team deal of his own after he’d just finished the worst season of his career, so it’s possible this back-hatch pivot was a part of the Reds’ blueprint all along.
Who Will Win The NL Central?
The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.
Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players. Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.
The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).
As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson‘s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright‘s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.
Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the NL Central?
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Brewers 44% (5,171)
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Cubs 32% (3,832)
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Cardinals 11% (1,253)
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Reds 10% (1,130)
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Pirates 4% (500)
Total votes: 11,886