Reds Rumors

MLBTR Poll: The Reds’ Rebuilt Rotation

By Jeff Todd | January 29, 2019 at 11:09pm CDT

The Reds entered this winter determined to boost their club’s performance at the MLB level, even if an anticipated new core hasn’t quite fully come together. On the heels of four-straight campaigns with less than seventy wins and last-place division finishes, it was and is an understandable goal — albeit one that called for careful handling to avoid denting the long-term outlook.

At the top of the docket, without question, was the improvement of a rotation that has been the game’s worst over that approximate span. While the team has ended up adding two outfielders with major name recognition — Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig — they don’t really change the overall complexion of the position-player unit. The Reds had a middle-of-the-pack lineup and bullpen in 2018. Perhaps there’s some hope that either or both of those groups (the former, particularly) will improve in the season to come. But the rotation was the major impediment, and there’s little doubting that the quality of the newly rebuilt pitching staff will have a huge say in the club’s outlook in a division that promises to feature quite a bit of competition.

When GM Nick Krall said recently that this’ll be the “best rotation we’ve had in five years,” he wasn’t exactly staking out a bold position. The standard isn’t terribly lofty. If the Cincy outfit wishes to compete, though, it’ll need to do more than just top its abysmal recent starting rotation work.

Let’s take a quick snapshot of where things stand now in the starting five, beginning with the newly hired guns:

Sonny Gray: The most recently-acquired of the team’s three new hurlers is also the one who received the biggest commitment. In addition to his preexisting $7.5MM salary for 2019, the Reds are taking on $30.5MM in new money over three years (while also gaining another season of control via option). Though his upside is perhaps easy to exaggerate, as he handily overperformed his peripherals in his best campaigns with the Athletics, Gray seems largely to have the physical skills intact that made him a high-quality, 200+-inning starter in 2014 and 2015.
Alex Wood: Long known as a talented but injury-prone pitcher, Wood has mostly provided a good quantity of innings. He showed quite a bit of ceiling upon landing with the Dodgers, but wasn’t quite as sharp last year and exhibited a 2 mph year-over-year velocity decline. Though his salary isn’t yet decided, Wood will check in with a salary between $8.7MM (the team’s filing figure) and $9.65MM (his own) in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
Tanner Roark: As with Wood, the former Nationals hurler arrived via trade in advance of his last season of control. Slated to earn an even $10MM, Roark has been longer on innings than results over the past two seasons. But he did spin two outstanding campaigns before that, even if those results weren’t fully supported by the peripherals, and has been an exceptionally durable pitcher since emerging in D.C. Roark seems a good bet to provide a steady volume of at-least good-enough frames for the Cincinnati organization.

The trio joins the following holdovers:

Luis Castillo: The sophomore slump that Castillo experienced didn’t turn out to be all that bad, as he finished with a 4.30 ERA and 8.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 over 169 2/3 innings after turning on the afterburners down the stretch. In his final 11 starts, Castillo spun 66 1/3 frames of 2.44 ERA ball with a 69:14 K/BB ratio. He’s still just 26 years of age and still thrws gas. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Castillo is the likeliest member of the new-look Reds outfit to turn in top-of-the-rotation numbers, and his track record to date suggests he ought to be good at least for a nice volume of solid frmes.
Anthony DeSclafani: Maybe we’ll look back at the end of the 2019 season and wonder why we had questions. After all, DeSclafani did show some signs of returning to his prior form in 2018 — it’s just that they were obfuscated by a barrage of long balls (1.88 per nine; 19.8% HR/FB rate) that left him with a 4.93 ERA. Still, he managed to tally 115 innings after missing all of the prior season, sported a career-high 94+ average fastball, and matched his career average with a 9.4% swinging-strike rate. True, DeSclafani did surrender loads of hard contact (41.9%), but it seems he has regained much of his physical ability.
Tyler Mahle: Long considered a talented hurler, the 24-year-old sputtered in his first full effort at the game’s highest level. With 22 balls leaving the yard in his 112 frames, and a less-than-trim tally of 4.3 BB/9, it’s hardly surprising to see a 4.98 ERA on the final-season ledger. That said, Mahle also ran up 8.8 K/9 on the basis of a 9.9% swinging-strike rate. If any of the above-listed pitchers falters in camp or during the year, whether due to performance or injury issues, Mahle looks to be a nice piece to have on hand.
Other depth arms: The remaining potential rotation candidates seem to have little hope of competing for a starting job in camp — barring injury, of course. Still, there are some plausible pieces to work with in Sal Romano, Cody Reed, Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, Keury Mella, and non-roster veteran Odrisamer Despaigne.

Looking at the overall picture, if you focus on established MLB ceiling, there’s a clear path to a quality unit. True, none of the five most accomplished pitchers — Gray, Wood, Roark, Castillo, and DeSclafani — has really ever been a dominant ace. But at their best, every one of these hurlers has had an extended run as at least a high-quality, mid-rotation starter. On the other hand, all five (to say nothing of the other players listed above) have shown their warts in the not-so-distant past. Only Wood finished the 2018 season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

So, how do you view the offseason efforts of the Cincinnati baseball operations unit to cobble together a pitching staff?

Reds Have “Made Progress” In Realmuto Trade Talks; Other Clubs Still Involved

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2019 at 4:30pm CDT

4:30pm: While the Reds’ interest in Realmuto is genuine, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, the organization also doesn’t view him as a necessity and isn’t willing to overpay in order to acquire the All-Star.

Jan. 29, 9:13am: Whatever progress was made has clearly not yet resulted in a deal. It’s not just that the Marlins want to wait to see if other clubs will increase their offers. Rather, per Heyman (via Twitter), the Fish and the Reds are “still apart on prospects,” with other clubs also still engaged with the Miami organization.

Jan. 28, 3:59pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that there are “substantive” talks ongoing between Cincinnati and Miami, adding that India is indeed a player being discussed as part of the return.

The Marlins, though, are still talking with the Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, and are seeking the best package of two to four players they can obtain.

3:03pm: Third base prospect Jonathan India, whom the Reds selected with the No. 5 overall pick in this past summer’s draft, is also of interest to the Marlins, Heyman tweets. The former Florida Gators star hit a combined .240/.380/.433 in 184 plate appearances this past season in his pro debut — though he struggled in the Class-A Midwest League a bit after tearing through the Rookie-level Appalachian League with a .995 OPS in 14 games (the type of production one would expect from a fairly polished college bat in Rookie ball).

2:37pm: The Reds are “making progress” in their effort to pry catcher J.T. Realmuto away from the Marlins, reports Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Prospects Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell and Hunter Greene are all of interest to Miami, Heyman notes, which isn’t exactly a surprise given that they’re the organization’s consensus top three farmhands. Cincinnati is reluctant to part with any of that trio, but the two sides still appear to be gaining steam. Tucker Barnhart could be part of the package going back to Miami if a deal is reached, Heyman adds.

Whether it’s with the Reds or another club, it does seem as though the Marlins are at long last moving toward a deal. SiriusXM’s Craig Mish tweets that the Padres have been making a “late charge” for Realmuto and suggests that the “final chapter of the saga is upon us.” Heyman tweets that the Padres and Dodgers have been among the most aggressive teams in pursuit of Realmuto in recent days, prior to Cincinnati’s increased efforts. The Braves, according to Mish, are also in the mix though perhaps not to the same extent as the other three.

If the Reds are to ultimately strike a deal, it’ll be the latest move in an aggressive offseason of trades that has dramatically altered the complexion of the club. Cincinnati has already acquired (and extended) Sonny Gray in a deal with the Yankees, and the Reds have also picked up Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in another pair of deals.

While catcher isn’t a clear-cut area of need given that Barnhart is a solid option behind the dish himself, Realmuto has emerged as arguably the game’s best all-around catcher over the past couple of seasons, meaning he’d still be an upgrade for the Reds if Barnhart is indeed shipped to Miami as part of the trade. It should be noted, too, that Barnhart took a step back in several key areas last year; the 28-year-old had a career-high strikeout rate (18.4%) and saw his OBP and average dip as his batting average on balls in play regressed closer to his career norm.

Even defensively, the well-regarded Barnhart saw his caught-stealing rate plummet from a league-leading 44 percent in 2017 to a below-average 24 percent in 2018. In spite of his 2017 Gold Glove Award and strong reputation, Barnhart has never graded out as a plus pitch-framer, but he posted the worst marks of his career in that regard in 2018 as well (per Baseball Prospectus).

All of that said, Barnhart is still a .257/.331/.374 hitter across the past four seasons, and while the resulting 88 OPS+ is below average relative to the rest of the league, it checks in a bit better than that of the average catcher over that same span. He’d be a better replacement for Realmuto than the majority of the free-agent options remaining on the market, and with $10.25MM guaranteed to him over the next three seasons (plus a 2022 option), he’d be plenty affordable even for the low-spending Marlins. He’d also give Miami another potential trade piece should the team look to flip him quickly this offseason or perhaps this summer at the deadline.

NL Notes: Mets, Harper, Machado, Rockies, Dodgers, Kenley, Reds

By Connor Byrne | January 26, 2019 at 10:35pm CDT

The Mets haven’t been connected to outfielder Bryce Harper or infielder Manny Machado – the best free agents available this offseason – in part because, “I don’t know how many teams have two $30-million players,” COO Jeff Wilpon said this week (via Tim Healey of Newsday). Wilpon was alluding to the Mets’ highest-paid player, outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who will make just shy of $30MM per year over the next two seasons. But Cespedes is not under contract thereafter, may not even play in 2019 because of heel problems, and will have insurance cover some portion of his money while he’s on the shelf. Still, whether the outfield’s a pressing need for the Mets is debatable, as they have Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton headlining that group. Wilpon noted the Mets “have some pretty good lefty outfielders” in Nimmo and Conforto, lessening the need for Harper. Entering the offseason, they weren’t as fortunate on the left side of their infield, where Machado could have made a huge difference. The team has since signed Jed Lowrie, though, and it’s seemingly content to go forward with him as its primary third baseman and Amed Rosario at shortstop. However, even after reeling in Lowrie (and acquiring other pricey veterans in Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson), the Mets are still roughly $40MM under the luxury tax, Healey points out. Nevertheless, the big-market club is apparently content to stay out of the sweepstakes for both Harper and Machado.

NL Notes: Realmuto, Dodgers, Braves, Markakis, Cardinals, Gray

By Steve Adams | January 22, 2019 at 9:40pm CDT

The Dodgers’ recent acquisition of Russell Martin hasn’t taken them out of the running for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. To the contrary, the Dodgers are still discussing a potential Realmuto deal with Miami, and catching prospect Keibert Ruiz is among the names Miami is targeting. Although he opened the 2018 season at just 19 years of age, Ruiz spent the entire season with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate. Ruiz was nearly five years younger than the average player in the Double-A Texas League, but the switch-hitter nevertheless held his own, hitting .268/.328/.401 with a dozen home runs and 14 doubles in a career-high 415 plate appearances. Ruiz also demonstrated preternatural bat-to-ball abilities, striking out in only eight percent of his plate appearances. He currently ranks 36th among all MLB prospects on the latest rankings from Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs.

Here’s more from the Senior Circuit…

Nick Markakis told reporters on today’s conference call that he had larger offers in both overall value and in guaranteed length but felt strongly about returning to the Braves for a fifth season (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Markakis re-upped with Atlanta on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $6MM — a $4MM salary in 2019 and a $2MM buyout on a $6MM option for the 2020 season — and general manager Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the unexpectedly affordable rate could help the Braves accomplish some other offseason goals. “Nick coming back on these terms allow us to pursue other things, have financial flexibility to improve the club in other ways,” said Anthopoulos. (David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that the team’s next move may not occur until Spring Training is underway, though.) Burns notes that Markakis won’t suit up for all 162 games next season, as he did in 2018, which the club believes will help the 35-year-old to stay fresher and to avoid a second-half slump.
Signing Paul Goldschmidt to an extension could be a bit more complicated for the Cardinals than many would think, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic explores in his latest column (subscription required). Goldschmidt has already signed what turned out to be one exceptionally team-friendly extension, and as the former union representative for the D-backs, he takes particular umbrage with team owners’ increasing reluctance toward spending in free agency. Saxon wonders whether Goldschmidt will feel obligated to push for a maximum-value contract given his views, though he emphasizes that Goldschmidt himself has declined to discuss his feelings about a new contract. And, as Saxon further writes, there are no indications that talks between the Cardinals and Goldschmidt’s agent, Casey Close, have begun.
Sonny Gray spoke with reporters about his decision to sign an extension with the Reds before ever suiting up for a single game with the team (link via Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Gray noted that his relationship with newly hired pitching coach Derek Johnson, who previously was his pitching coach at Vanderbilt, played a significant role in the decision. The Reds also have one of Gray’s college battery-mates, Curt Casali, on the roster as a backup to starter Tucker Barnhart. Gray also explained that his late father was a Reds fan, adding that the first MLB game he ever attended as a child was at Great American Ball Park. As to what prompted his struggles in New York this past season, Gray was uncertain but said he feels stronger having endured the struggles. “I honestly think you can go through some hardships at times and come out the other end better than you ever were,” Gray said.

Reds Acquire, Extend Sonny Gray As Part Of Three-Team Trade

By Steve Adams | January 21, 2019 at 4:15pm CDT

After several days of reporting and speculation, right-hander Sonny Gray has officially been traded from the Yankees to the Reds and also agreed to a contract extension with Cincinnati. It’s a three-team deal that also involves the Mariners. Second base prospect Shed Long and a Competitive Balance Round A pick go from the Reds to the Yankees in exchange for Gray and left-hander Reiver Sanmartin. New York, in turn, has flipped Long directly to the Mariners in return for center field prospect Josh Stowers — the Mariners’ second-round pick in the 2018 draft.

As part of the trade, Gray has agreed to a new, three-year contract extension with the Reds that’ll span the 2020-22 seasons. He’ll earn $30.5MM over those three campaigns — that’s in addition to his $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season. Along with a $500K signing bonus, the deal reportedly promises $10MM in each of its three years and also comes with a $12MM club option for the 2023 season. There are $500K worth of incentives in each new season of the deal, with that value achievable in full at 190 innings pitched, and his annual salaries can grow based on performance escalators. Gray’s contract doesn’t contain a no-trade clause but stipulates that he be paid a $1MM assignment bonus each time he is traded.

Cincinnati emerged as a front-runner to land Gray last Friday, and his addition will be the third such pickup of the Reds’ offseason, joining lefty Alex Wood and fellow righty Tanner Roark. That trio will be added to a new-look Cincinnati rotation that’s also projected to include holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s a group that should give the Reds a vastly more competitive outlook in 2019 while likely pushing names such as Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Tyler Mahle, Jackson Stephens and others out of the Major League rotation mix and either into bullpen roles or back to the minors (Stephenson, it should be noted, is out of options).

A change of scenery for Gray, 29, only makes sense after he struggled profusely with the Yankees in 2018 — particularly when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray posted a ghastly 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 compared to a 3.17 ERA on the road, and while there’s surely more at play in those splits than the surface-level numbers exhibit, the contrast between the two numbers is unequivocally jarring.

The Reds quite likely found it encouraging that Gray’s velocity remained consistent with its previous levels (93.8 mph average fastball), that his swinging-strike rate remained north of 10 percent and that his ground-ball tendencies (50 percent) remained above the league average. Gray actually allowed home runs at his lowest rate since 2015 as well (0.97 HR/9; 13.3% HR/FB), despite pitching more than 40 percent of his innings at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. Of course, he’ll be moving to a similarly hitter-friendly setting in the form of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, though the move to the National League should prove beneficial.

With the extension now in place, the trade of Gray differs starkly from Cincinnati’s acquisition of Wood and Roark, each of whom is a pure one-year rental. In essence, it’s a bet that the move into a lower-pressure setting could help Gray in a similar manner that Matt Harvey seemed to benefit following his own trade over from the Mets this past May. Gray, it should be noted, is not far removed from an extended run as a high-quality arm; the former No. 18 overall draft pick entered the 2018 season with a career 3.45 ERA in 770 1/3 innings, highlighted by an All-Star nod and a third-place Cy Young finish in 2015.

While it may be too much to expect for Gray to return to those lofty heights, he at the very least has the potential to help comprise a radically improved Reds rotation and gives the team some long-term stability a a time when many of the pitching prospects acquired over the course of Cincinnati’s rebuild have yet failed to pan out.

Cincinnati will also add a left-handed option to the middle levels of its farm system in the form of Sanmartin. While he wasn’t considered to be one of the organization’s top prospects, Sanmartin reached Double-A for the first time last season, at the age of 22, and pitched to an overall 2.81 ERA with a 58-to-4 K/BB ratio in 67 1/3 innings between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A. New York originally acquired Sanmartin out of the Rangers organization in a swap that sent righty Ronald Herrera to Texas.

Long, meanwhile, will head to the Mariners in a surprise development and give Seattle a prospect that is not far from big league readiness. The 23-year-old Long was a 12th-round pick by the Reds back in 2013 but has vastly outperformed that draft billing, rising to the Double-A ranks and hitting at a .261/.353/.412 clip with a dozen homers and 19 stolen bases this past season. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs ranked Long seventh among Reds farmhands just last month, noting that the converted catcher still has some defensive question marks at second base. That said, he has the bat to profile as a regular there if he can improve his glovework, and if not, he could move to an outfield corner.

Stowers, in turn, is several years further from the point where he’d need to be added to the 40-man roster in New York. He went a round or two higher in the draft than many expected on the heels of a strong finish to his college season at Louisville, and it seems that given New York’s quick acquisition of him, the Mariners weren’t the only ones who hoped to snag him in the draft’s early rounds. The Yankees will also acquire a pick that is currently slotted in at No. 36 overall but could move a bit, depending on the outcome of the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers (and the subsequent draft pick compensation attached to them). The No. 36 slot last season came with a $1.967MM slot value, meaning the Yankees have likely added another $2MM+ to their bonus pool in the 2019 draft.

A trade of Gray has been expected since early in the offseason since Yankees general manager Brian Cashman openly spoke about his desire to find a change of scenery for Gray. Today’s swap gives the Yankees a rotation consisting of Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia. With Gray no longer in the fold, the Yankees’ top depth options are Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa and Chance Adams. The organization likely hopes to have lefty Jordan Montgomery, who underwent Tommy John surgery early last summer, can return late in the 2019 season, though it certainly possesses ample rotation depth even if he’s shelved into the 2020 season.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Friday that the Reds were closing in on a deal to acquire Gray. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted over the weekend that Long and the draft pick would likely be involved in the deal, if completed. Rosenthal first added that the trade could hinge on an extension. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported today that Gray had been traded, confirming Long’s inclusion and adding that he’d been flipped to Seattle for Stowers. Rosenthal reported the extension and the terms of Gray’s new contract, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today adding salary details. Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer added Sanmartin’s inclusion in the swap. Heyman tweeted the trade assignment bonus.

Yankees, Reds “Finalizing” Sonny Gray Trade; Reds Trying To Extend Gray

By Jeff Todd,TC Zencka and Ty Bradley | January 21, 2019 at 11:19am CDT

11:19am: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Yankees had offers from multiple teams they’d have accepted for Gray as of last Friday, so if talks with the Reds don’t pan out, those proposals could once again come into play.

Jan. 21, 10:08am: Heyman tweets that there’s some optimism from the Reds that they’ll be able to work out an extension before today’s window closes. However, if the extension doesn’t materialize (and, thus, the currently proposed trade does not go through), the Yankees may “look elsewhere” for a trade partner for Gray.

Jan. 20, 4:56pm: A resolution on a Yankees-Reds trade is not expected tonight, and a deadline on a 72-hour negotiation window between Gray and Cincy is sometime late on Monday, Rosenthal tweets.

11:03am: The Reds are indeed attempting to extend Gray, according to Heyman, who adds the two teams have agreed on a trade package. But whether Gray gets an extension could affect the return for him.

10:37am: It’s possible the Reds are trying to sign Gray to an extension before acquiring him, Rosenthal tweets, though he notes a deal could come together either way.

Jan. 19, 6:08pm: The two sides are “finalizing” the deal, per Heyman, who reports the Yankees will likely receive Long and a draft pick. The Yankees could also land a third piece in the trade, Heyman suggests.

2:31pm: Per Heyman, the Reds would prefer not to include Stephenson in a deal for Gray, and talks now “center around” Long. Stephenson, 22, was the 11th overall selection in the 2015 draft, and has steadily progressed through the Cincinnati farm. In last month’s update, Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs projected the 6’4″ righty as an average regular, lauding his double-plus arm and 60 grade raw power. Long also projects as a regular, though perhaps not at second, where he has “below average hands” and “clunky footwork,” per Fangraphs’ scouting report.

Jan. 19, 9:02am: Expect Gray to be moved sometime this weekend, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The Reds and Yankees are inching closer to a deal, with two prospects and a draft pick the expected return for Gray. Long and Stephenson (currently the #6 and #7 prospects in the Reds system per MLB.com) are the prospects most likely to be headed to New York. It’s not a done deal, however, as the Giants, Brewers, and Braves are still part of the conversation.

Jan. 18, 4:55pm: There are other teams still involved, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter link), including at least the Padres and Giants. There have been some discussions of three-team arrangements, Martino also notes.

Jan. 18, 2:33pm: The Reds are “making progress” in their talks with the Yankees regarding veteran righty Sonny Gray, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It emerged yesterday that the Yanks were nearing a deal involving the starter, though multiple organizations were still said to be involved in talks.

It seems fair now to assume that the Cincinnati club is emerging as a favorite, though it’s certainly too soon to rule out alternatives. The Reds have already added a pair of starters via trade in Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. Like those hurlers, Gray is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. He’ll earn $7.5MM after agreeing to terms with the Yankees, making him a bit less costly than the other two pitchers.

The potential return remains to be seen, and obviously hasn’t quite been nailed down. Jon Heyman of Fancred reports (Twitter links) that the organizations are still discussing different prospects — second baseman Shed Long and catcher Tyler Stephenson among them — while a draft pick could also be part of the return. (That would have to be the Reds’ 2019 competitive balance pick, which is a valuable sandwich-round selection currently slotted in at No. 36 overall.)

If they can wrap up an agreement, the Reds would certainly present quite a different rotation than the ones they have trotted out in recent years. Roark, Wood, and (hypothetically) Gray all have their warts, but each has found plenty of success in the majors. They’d likely join Anthony DeSclafani and hard-throwing Luis Castillo to round out the starting five under new manager David Bell.

It’s notable, of course, that none of Roark, Wood or Gray comes with control rights beyond the ’19 season. The same is also true of recently acquired outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. It’s possible that the Reds simply prefer one-year commitments at this time, which would allow them the chance to reevaluate their future needs after the conclusion of the 2019 season.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Santana, Marlins, Happ, Gray, Reds, Perez, Boras

By Mark Polishuk | January 20, 2019 at 11:06pm CDT

Carlos Santana in a Marlins uniform? Surprising at it may seem, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) reports that Miami was in talks with the Mariners about the veteran first baseman before Seattle flipped Santana to the Indians as part of a three-team deal with the Rays. It’s been a quiet offseason for the Marlins as they continue their rebuild and weigh J.T. Realmuto trade offers, though since their past fire-sale moves have cleared a lot of future payroll space, there have been indications that the Fish could use this room to potentially to add future trade chips. The Marlins had interest in free agent D.J. LeMahieu, and Santana is owed $35MM over the next two seasons.

Between the Marlins’ flexibility and Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto’s creativity in swinging deals, any number of scenarios could have been floated. The most obvious offer could have been a “buying a prospect” type of trade, where the Marlins absorb a big chunk of Santana’s salary if the Mariners added some minor leaguers along in the deal. If not a prospect, perhaps the M’s could have included a Major League player along with Santana in a package to Miami, potentially a needed reliever or a left-handed bat. Whatever was discussed, Seattle ended up preferring the return from the three-team deal (a Competitive Balance Round draft pick and $10MM in salary relief), though the Marlins are certainly emerging as a possible trade partner for teams trying to unload an ill-fitting contract.

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s latest set of notes from around baseball…

The Reds were willing to offer J.A. Happ a three-year contract and give him more in guaranteed money than the $34MM he received from the Yankees in a two-year deal (with a $17MM vesting option for 2021). New York’s offer, however, included a higher average annual value than Cincinnati’s offer. Rosenthal speculates that Happ could have based on his decision on a desire to return to a contender, or perhaps the fact that pitchers are generally wary of the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
The Happ situation could be a reason the Reds are looking to work out an extension with Sonny Gray before acquiring him from the Yankees, a tactic that Rosenthal says has surprised some rival agents and executives. While Gray’s success outside of Yankee Stadium has made him a popular bounce-back candidate on another team, Rosenthal wonders if the right-hander might want to lock in a multi-year payday now in the wake of his 2018 struggles. Gray might welcome a chance to avoid a free agent market that has become less friendly to veterans, and Cincinnati offers him a familiar face in pitching coach Derek Johnson (Gray’s former coach at Vanderbilt).
Rosenthal’s piece also offers a broader overview of the Reds’ offseason, which has seen the club try to make significant upgrades even while still looking like postseason longshots in the competitive NL Central. Cincinnati has been willing to trade some second-tier prospects to add established Major League players, while resisting moving any of its top minor league talents (such as Nick Senzel or Taylor Trammell).
The Astros and Mariners both had interest in left-hander Martin Perez before Perez agreed to join the Twins yesterday. Perez picked Minnesota since he wanted to be a starting pitcher next season, which likely gave the Twins the edge over the Mets, though the other suitors might have had more room in their rotation. The Astros are thin on pitching, though since Houston plans to contend next season, it might have been a taller order to assign a starting spot to a pitcher who struggled as Perez did in 2018. The Mariners have a full rotation plus Justus Sheffield waiting in the wings at Triple-A, though more room could have made for Perez — Felix Hernandez’s health and future as a starting pitcher is questionable, and Mike Leake has been the subject of trade rumors this winter.
Scott Boras has been vocal about what he sees as a lack of competitiveness around baseball, and has made several suggestions (though not yet officially to the league or players’ union) about ways to better motivate teams to win games — and, of course, have more incentive to spend money on Boras clients in free agency. The list includes such concepts as extra playoff teams, cash bonuses to teams that reach the postseason, and draft pick compensation for teams that sign a veteran free agent or win a draft lottery for passing various wins thresholds. Boras also proposes an anti-tanking rule that would prevent teams from receiving a top-five draft pick if they win 68 or fewer games. “Our system is like a restaurant saying, ’If I can’t be an elite, fine-dining restaurant, I am no longer going to make a good hamburger. I’m just going to give poor meat to my clientele,’ ” Boras said. “Which results in fewer patrons, a downturn in (overall major-league) attendance three years running.”

NL Notes: Cubs, Reds, Pederson, Bourgeois

By Mark Polishuk | January 20, 2019 at 9:42pm CDT

The Cubs have struggled to develop homegrown pitchers during Theo Epstein’s regime, though senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that “this is probably the first year I can confidently sit here and feel like we have the guys that can help this team in the major leagues this year, if needed.” The Cubs are already overloaded with veteran rotation options on the 25-man roster, with Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Yu Darvish, swingman Mike Montgomery, and Tyler Chatwood all on hand to make starts. Of course, those seven account for over $100MM in salary next season, as the Cubs have been forced to spend big on starting pitching to account for a lack of help from the farm.

Jen-Ho Tseng and Duane Underwood Jr. are Triple-A arms who cracked the big leagues in 2018, plus a variety of 2016 draft picks (Thomas Hatch, Michael Rucker, Duncan Robinson) could potentially make the MLB level this season, possibly in the bullpen if not the rotation. The 2016 class is noteworthy, as McLeod said the player development staff has been “more aggressive” with how it brings along its pitchers given the lack of results in earlier years. “We tried to fit everyone neatly into a box,” McLeod said. “Do these mechanics lead to what we think is going to be long-term health? And has he thrown enough strikes that we think prior performance is going to equal this type of performance going forward? We put so many checks on guys…that probably hamstrung us a little bit.”

Red Sox, Reds Among Teams Interested In Shawn Kelley

By Connor Byrne | January 20, 2019 at 12:20pm CDT

12:20pm: Kelley is drawing interest from roughly 10 teams, including the Reds, per Jon Heyman of Fancred.

11:32am: The Red Sox and free-agent reliever Shawn Kelley “have been in contact,” Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. Meanwhile, Boston is unlikely to sign either Sergio Romo or Adam Warren in free agency, Cotillo hears.

With Joe Kelly having signed with the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel currently a free agent, acquiring bullpen help is likely the Red Sox’s top priority at the moment. But president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has suggested the reigning world champions aren’t going to splurge on a reliever, which means their union with Kimbrel could be over. Kelley would represent both a far more affordable but less exciting option, on the other hand, and could give the club a solid late-game arm for a low cost.

While Kelley has experienced some down seasons during his career, the journeyman has typically performed well in recent years. In 2018, which he split between the Nationals and Athletics, Kelley overcame tumbling velocity to post a 2.94 ERA/3.71 FIP and register 9.18 K/9 against 2.02 BB/9 across 49 innings. He did log an unappealing groundball rate (30.2 percent), however, which has been the case throughout his career. Kelley also saw his Nats tenure end unceremoniously when the team designated him for assignment Aug. 1, a day after he allowed a home run and slammed his glove to the ground during a 25-4 loss to the Mets. Upon designating Kelley, general manager Mike Rizzo noted, “If you’re not in, you’re in the way.”

Even though his Washington stint concluded in embarrassing fashion, Kelley was unfazed in Oakland, where he put up tremendous results in a 16 2/3-inning span. The Red Sox will hope for more of that from Kelley if they sign him, though they’re no doubt mindful it would be risky to count on the right-hander. After all, Kelley’s a soon-to-be 35-year-old with a pair of Tommy John surgeries under his belt, and he’s only two seasons removed from recording a hideous 7.27 ERA in 26 frames.

Reds Pitcher Michael Lorenzen Preparing For Possible Outfield Role

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 18, 2019 at 6:42pm CDT

Reds right-hander Michael Lorenzen is working out extensively as an outfielder this offseason in hopes of finding his way into an expanded, hybrid role in 2019, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The organization appears to be open to the possibility of utilizing Lorenzen on the grass, though it’s as yet unclear how likely it is that he’ll ultimately do so in the regular season.

Lorenzen, 27, pitched to a 3.11 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9 and a 50.2 percent ground-ball rate in 81 innings of relief last season. Lorenzen also emerged as a legitimate offensive weapon off the bench. A two-way star at Cal State Fullerton where he pitched and played center field, Lorenzen went 9-for-31 and belted four homers as a pinch-hitter for Cincinnati last season. That strong showing included an incredible run where he hit three pinch homers in a week’s time (video link), capped off by a grand slam.

First and foremost, Lorenzen is an important set-up/swingman option for a Cincinnati club that’s hoping to make strides in the season to come. He has his hands full already. Despite missing nearly two months to open the 2018 season, he ended up throwing 81 innings in 45 appearances, including three starts at the tail end of the season.

If Shohei Ohtani can do handle two-way duties, then perhaps Lorenzen should be given a shot. Stepping into the outfield defensively, though, would definitely represent a significant additional burden and avenue for risk. Ohtani did play the field in Japan, but was only utilized as a DH upon coming to the majors. That option isn’t available to the Reds, so they’ll need to put Lorenzen in the field at times if they want him to accrue any significant number of plate appearances.

Ultimately, it’s not clear whether it will prove all that useful for the Reds to utilize Lorenzen as a part-time outfielder. Beyond concerns with the possible impact on his pitching, the club is already fairly deep in outfield options (Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Phil Ervin). And there’s good reason to be skeptical of how Lorenzen will fare if exposed to MLB pitching more regularly, though he has certainly shown enough to make it tantalizing to see more. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll look defensively, though Lorenzen certainly seems athletic enough to handle himself just fine.

It may be that the most sensible outcome, at least early on, would be to take advantage of the flexibility on a limited basis. There are all kinds of interesting game-situation strategies that new skipper David Bell might contemplate. If nothing else, Lorenzen could still see scattered pinch-hitting opportunities as he did last year. If it proves necessary, or Lorenzen proves worthy, then perhaps a few starts would even be appropriate.

One thing that seems clear is that Lorenzen himself is on board with the possibility of a new job description. He spoke about his preparation in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), voicing not only a willingness but an eagerness and desire for more time at the plate in 2019. Lorenzen joked that he’s “begged” the Reds for an expanded role and sounds energized by the possibility of getting some chances at the plate and in the field next season.

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