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Gammons On Red Sox, Padres, Reds, Zobrist, Hamels, Relievers

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In his latest column at GammonsDaily.com, legendary journalist Peter Gammons writes that while we often get caught up in the fascination of which big names will be dealt, the best moves oftentimes look incremental at first glance. The Cubs’ acquisition of Jake Arrieta in 2013’s Scott Feldman trade wasn’t one of the most notable moves that year, but it’s been a coup for Chicago. Likewise, the three-team deal that sent Jose Iglesias to Detroit, Avisail Garcia/Frankie Montas to the White Sox and Jake Peavy to Boston was notable, but the impact of the deal looks far greater now than it did at the time. The Indians’ acquisition of Corey Kluber from the Padres in a three-team deal that sent Jake Westbrook to St. Louis and Ryan Ludwick to San Diego didn’t look particularly exciting, either, and the Giants have had huge success with additions like Javier Lopez and Marco Scutaro. All are good examples to keep in mind when looking at any trade that occurs over the next 11 days.

Some highlights from the rumors and rumblings that Gammons hears as the trade deadline nears…

  • The Red Sox were optimistic coming out of the break, but their offensive woes through two games have the team wondering about selling pieces of value from the big league roster. At the same time, however, the Sox haven’t ruled out Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels. A Cueto acquisition seems particularly contradictory, given his status as a rental. However, Gammons notes that the Sox have considered the move, thinking that he could help them make a run and that a rental might give them an inside edge on signing him in free agency. Gammons is the second journalist to mention this today, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford offered a similar take earlier.
  • The Padres were taking bids on pending free agents during the All-Star break, but they’re wondering if improved pitching can carry them into relevancy late in the year. The Padres had an ERA over 4.00 as a team each month but are sitting at 2.93 through 113 2/3 July innings. It’s a small sample, of course, but the team’s talented rotation has underperformed for much of the year. (A suspect defensive alignment can’t have helped matters, of course.)
  • The Reds are the “primary seller to watch,” says Gammons, and as one GM points out, it’ll be somewhat unfamiliar territory for the club. “It’s not easy for them,” the GM told Gammons. “Walt Jocketty has been so successful over the years, he hasn’t had much experience with the sell mode. [Owner Bob] Castellini has been reluctant to pack it in.”
  • The Red Sox may have at one point discussed Cueto, but Gammons writes that the Astros are presently willing to rent the Cincinnati ace. The Royals could be in that boat as well, he adds.
  • Jeff Samardzija is another big rental name on the market, and while the White Sox are hesitant to sell, they expect him to test free agency and know that the Astros and Blue Jays are willing to rent. Gammons adds that the Blue Jays, in particular, have also expressed interest in both Ian Kennedy of the Padres and Mike Leake of the Reds.
  • The Dodgers make the most sense for Hamels, and while multiple reports have indicated that they won’t part with Corey Seager or Julio Urias, Gammons hears that they may be hesitant to move prospects in their next tier. Los Angeles is reluctant to part with either right-hander Jose De Leon or catcher Austin Barnes, per Gammons. An NL GM called Phillies president-in-waiting Andy MacPhail a “cautious, prudent trader” and noted that unlike Samardzija, Cueto, Leake, Kennedy and Scott Kazmir, Hamels doesn’t have to be traded right now.
  • The Royals, Nationals, Cubs, Mets, Yankees and Pirates are all in the mix for Ben Zobrist at this time.
  • Another GM told Gammons that there are “at least 16 teams” that are pursuing bullpen help. The Braves’ Jim Johnson is drawing quite a bit of interest, with the Blue Jays and Red Sox among the teams to reach out to Atlanta for the purpose of inquiry.

Pitching Notes: Hamels, Cueto, Kazmir, Haren

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While some have speculated that Cole Hamels is pitching with an injury following a disastrous pair of starts (14 runs in 6 2/3 innings), ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that other clubs don’t believe there to be a physical issue with the Phillies’ ace. One NL exec told Stark that he didn’t buy it. “If he was iffy, they wouldn’t put him out there. He’s too valuable,” Stark was told. Here’s a look at the latest pertaining to Hamels and the rest of the trade market for starting pitchers…

  • The newest column from Joel Sherman of the New York Post follows up on a pair of tweets from last Friday in which he stated that it was surprising how many execs feel that Hamels won’t be traded at all this season. Many feel that Phillies president-to-be Andy MacPhail will want to hire a more robust analytics department to weigh in on the trade and wouldn’t want a “lame-duck GM” to have final say on such a franchise-altering trade. According to Sherman, if there’s one team that’s considered the in-season front-runner for Hamels, though, it’s the Dodgers. Other clubs are wary of taking on Hamels’ entire deal and parting with prospects, but the deep-pocketed Dodgers don’t have as great a concern. (Hamels’ remaining money following the 2015 season, in fact, is nearly identical to the remaining amount on the contract of Zack Greinke, who is a lock to opt out of his deal.) The Dodgers, however, aren’t willing to part with top prospects Corey Seager or Julio Urias. Sherman also discusses Johnny Cueto in his column, noting that one AL exec told him, “Cueto is getting traded. That’s a fact.”
  • Rob Bradford of WEEI.com hears that despite the Red Sox’ desire to acquire young arms that are cost-controlled beyond 2015, the team does still have some degree of interest in both Cueto and Hamels. The Sox would likely only be interested in Cueto, a rental, if the Reds were more attracted to the prospects that Boston would offer than the Yankees, says Bradford. They’d have to feel the price was right, and as he notes, that’s unlikely. As for Hamels, Bradford characterizes a deal as a “long shot” but notes that other teams are highly unwilling to part with the type of arms that the Sox presently covet. For what it’s worth, Bradford writes that despite Hamels’ recent struggles, he isn’t injured.
  • Scott Kazmir turned in a dominant effort against the Twins on Saturday, easing a good deal of the worry that stemmed from a previous exit to a start after three innings. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, one AL scout told her: “I saw what I needed to see. He did everything. He worked out of trouble. He worked deep into the game.” Perhaps more interestingly, Slusser hears that the Athletics would prefer to acquire Triple-A prospects in exchange for Kazmir. It would seem that GM Billy Beane, then, is hoping to acquire players that can contribute to his club immediately, or at least in the near-term, as he has so often done in the past. (Jeff Todd and I have previously discussed that very trend in Beane’s trades on the MLBTR Podcast.)
  • Marlins manager Dan Jennings said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that Dan Haren has been drawing interest (Twitter links). Jenning said he fully expects Haren’s next start to be heavily scouted and added that Haren is “certainly someone teams have been asking about.” A full-scale fire sale seems unlikely in Miami, however, as Jennings also said, “if there are moves to be made, it will not be a total reset.”
  • Earlier today, it was reported that the White Sox are now in “listening mode,” with Jeff Samardzija being the most likely member of the club to depart via trade.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Pitching Market, O’s, Zunino, Inciarte, Astros

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In his latest notes post for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal writes that while he opined on Saturday that pitching-hungry GMs should act sooner rather than later, he spoke to one exec yesterday that plans to wait until the trade deadline is nearly at hand, believing prices will drop late in the month. A second exec opined to Rosenthal, though, that the market for pitchers other than Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels will soften in the coming days. Rosenthal gets the sense that the trade market will “erupt” and action will be “frenetic,” but it might take awhile to reach that boiling point.

Some highlights from his column (though I’d recommend checking out the entire column)…

  • Orioles GM Dan Duquette is very serious about wanting to add a bat and has indeed expressed interest in Jay Bruce, Justin Upton and Carlos Gomez, but as Rosenthal notes, the Orioles may have the thinnest farm system in the game. Baseball America ranked Baltimore’s farm just 29th heading into the season, and that was before recent injuries to top arms Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey. The team has some interesting names ready at the Triple-A level, but they also need to replace departing free agents Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Wei-Yin Chen and will need to rely on the farm to fill some of those holes.
  • The Mariners aren’t just looking for a backup to Mike Zunino, Rosenthal hears, but a veteran option who would allow them to send Zunino back to Triple-A. Of course, he points out the fact that Seattle had such a player in the form of Welington Castillo but traded him to the D-Backs in the Mark Trumbo deal, only to watch Castillo out-hit Trumbo.
  • The Padres talked with the Diamondbacks about a trade that would’ve brought both Aaron Hill and Ender Inciarte to San Diego during Spring Training, and they’ve made a much more recent inquiry on Inciarte than that as well. The D-Backs are also receiving interest in David Peralta, Rosenthal writes, but Arizona isn’t motivated to trade either outfielder. Both are controlled through the 2020 season. Inciarte is a logical trade candidate for the Padres, in my mind, as a plus defender in center field and a left-handed bat — two things which the club currently lacks.
  • The Phillies may end up hanging on to Jeff Francoeur rather than trading him, according to Rosenthal. While a last-place team hanging onto a short-term veteran such as Francoeur seems counter-intuitive, he notes that the return on Francoeur would be extremely minimal, so the team may value his leadership over the warm body they’d receive for trading him. I agree that the return on Francoeur, who’s hitting .257/.288/.449 with suspect range in the corner outfield, wouldn’t be all that exciting.
  • The Astros do want to add a bat, but the team’s search for starting pitcher is a significantly greater priority, sources tell Rosenthal. GM Jeff Luhnow did tell MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart on Friday that getting a bat is a growing area of focus, however, and Chris Carter hasn’t played since Friday due to an ankle sprain. (He and other Houston first basemen have struggled at the plate even when healthy, as well.)

NL Notes: Mercer, Morel, Cueto, Bruce, Alvarez, Upton

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Pirates infielder Jordy Mercer was injured by a take out slide while turning a double play earlier today. The extent of the injury is unknown. The Pirates may activate utility infielder Brent Morel if Mercer misses more than a few days, writes Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The club is already carrying a short bench, and none of the three healthy players have experience at third base. Morel was pulled from his Triple-A start today. The Pirates 40-man roster is full, so activating Morel will require a roster move.

  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter) heard that the Reds did not want to trade Johnny Cueto last month because they feared having to watch him pitch for another team in the All-Star Game.  Of course, Cueto was not named an All-Star and he remains a member of the Reds as of this writing.
  • The Orioles are among the teams scouting the Reds, tweets Morosi. They’re most interested in Cueto and outfielder Jay Bruce. Cueto is a free agent after the season, but Bruce is under contract through 2016 for $12.5MM with a $13MM ($1MM buyout) for 2017.
  • Pirates manager Clint Hurdle acknowledged the challenges Pedro Alvarez is having in his first season at first base, but he told reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that he’s not about to lobby GM Neal Huntington to make a move.  “I think our [GM] knows as well as I do what we’re looking to identify as strengths and weaknesses on our club,” Hurdle said. “We will do everything we can to fortify and make our club better. I’m not a fan of saying OK, we need A, B and C when A, B and C are out there [in the clubhouse].”
  • Justin Upton was pulled out of today’s game early, but it wasn’t a sign of an impending trade as many speculated.  The Padres simply had a muscle tighten up on him in the middle of today’s contest and he was pulled from the game as a precaution due to weather, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

Angels Interested In Jay Bruce

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2:00pm: The Angels doing their due diligence on a number of Reds players, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times tweets. There’s no trade brewing at this point with Bruce or any other Reds player.

1:33pm: The Angels are interested in Reds outfielder Jay Bruce, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter).  Morosi adds that the Halos have a scout in Cincinnati watching the Reds take on the Indians.

It was reported on Saturday that the Reds have opened the doors on a fire sale and Bruce was among the many players listed as possibilities to be shopped.  Through 86 games this season, Bruce has hit .255/.342/.474 with 14 home runs.

Bruce, who is owed about $19.5MM through 2016, has a $13MM club option for 2017 on his contract as well. He underwent knee surgery early last season but rushed back in less than a month, which some believe to be a significant factor in his diminished play in 2014 and early 2015. Bruce can reportedly block trades to the D-Backs, Red Sox, Marlins, Twins, Yankees, A’s, Rays and Blue Jays.

Even though Bruce has only come up in trade rumors in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney heard that the Reds have had the outfielder “available for awhile.”  For his career, Bruce owns a .251/.325/.467 slash line through eight seasons with the Reds.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Laffey, Correia, Reds

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The latest outright assignments according to the MLB.com transactions page..

  • The Rockies sent left-hander Aaron Laffey outright to the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes.   Laffey, 30, was on the roster for just one day before being designated for assignment on July 11th.  Earlier this season, Laffey pitched 47 2/3 innings in a tough pitching environment in Albuquerque, posting a 4.91 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 while splitting time between starting and relieving.
  • The Reds claimed Donn Roach off waivers from the Cubs.  Roach, 25, gave up four earned runs in a 3 1/3 inning appearance at the major league level for the Cubs. He threw 89 innings with a healthy 2.33 ERA for the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, striking out 3.3 and walking 1.6 batters per nine in the process.
  • The Cardinals sent shortstop Aledmys Diaz outright to Double-A Springfield.  After entering the year as the organization’s 11th-rated prospect in the eyes of Baseball America, the 24-year-old Diaz has taken a step back in 2015.  Prior to being designated for assignment, Diaz posted a .235/.292/.344 slash at Triple-A over 268 plate appearances on the year. Those numbers are down from a partial showing in the minors last season, when he put up a .765 OPS in 125 turns at bat at the High-A and Double-A levels.
  • The Phillies outrighted Kevin Correia on July 8th, just one day after designating him for assignment.  Correia, 34, spent time this spring with the Mariners and started the year in the Giants organization, ultimately opting out and signing with Philadelphia. He had solid results in his first several Triple-A starts, but scuffled to a 6.56 ERA over 23 1/3 innings with the Phillies.
  • The Braves released Nick Masset shortly after designating him for assignment earlier this month.  The veteran Masset, who signed with the Braves after the Marlins outrighted him in late May, posted a 4.70 ERA with 12 strikeouts, seven walks and three home runs allowed in 15 1/3 innings with Atlanta.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Parra, Soriano, Alvarez

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The Reds have opened the doors on a fire sale, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Todd Frazier will stay put. Billy Hamilton probably isn’t going anywhere. Most others are probably on the table. Fay expects at least four players to be traded, presumably Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, and Marlon Byrd as a starting point. Others like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Skip Schumaker are also expected to be shopped. The Reds are seven games below .500 and 15.5 games back in the NL Central. It’s probably too late for a rebound.

Here’s more news out of the NL Central:

  • Gerardo Parra’s strong play has all but ensured that he’ll be traded by the Brewers, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Parra is in the midst of a career season, hitting .311/.345/.502 with nine home runs and six stolen bases. Known for fantastic defense, he’s actually struggled this year per Ultimate Zone Rating (-9.8 UZR). Still, plenty of playoff teams have need of a high average, left-handed outfielder.
  • Cubs manager Joe Maddon said reliever Rafael Soriano might be “up sooner than planned,” tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Soriano was signed on June 12. He has a career 2.85 ERA and 207 saves in 630 innings. The Cubs have manufactured a pseudo-closer battle. They demoted Hector Rondon from the role earlier in the summer despite solid production. The club also recently called up Neil Ramirez – another candidate for saves.
  • The Pirates would probably like to de-emphasize Pedro Alvarez, reports Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The former third baseman has continued his defensive ineptitude at first base with 15 errors. He’s also offered a .233/.299/.424 slash which is well below average for a first baseman. Unfortunately, the Pirates will have to look outside of the organization to move beyond Alvarez. Adam Lind is probably the most notable first baseman on the trade market. If the Pirates get creative, they could also try a three-team swap for Jon Singleton. Typically, Pittsburgh will look for fringier options like Chris Parmelee. We heard earlier this evening that the Orioles may soon designate Parmelee for assignment.

Trade Market Notes: Pitchers, Shields, Hamels, Papelbon, Reds

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The much vaunted sellers market could soon favor buyers – at least for starting pitchers, observes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal figures GMs with players like Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto should be motivated to act quickly. As he notes (tweet), Hamels and Cueto are already joined by Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, and four Padres hurlers. Closer to the deadline, we could see Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, and David Price join the trade block among others. If there is any point in the sellers’ favor, it’s that every club feels like it needs more pitching.

  • Agents prefer for their star players to be traded, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Players with expiring contracts become ineligible for a qualifying offer. As we’ve seen in recent seasons, clubs can be very deliberate about signing a top free agent with a qualifying offer attached. The bonus pool rules instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement ensure that some teams will carefully guard their access to young talent rather than ink an expensive veteran.
  • A “rival evaluator” tells Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider only) that he expects the Padres to trade Shields. The source put the odds anywhere between 75 and 90 percent. Of course, that’s just the opinion of one anonymous source. Shields’ market is liable to be complicated, and I could see it extending into August.
  • In other Shields-related news, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune thinks it could be a mistake to trade the veteran righty. While the Padres may desire to get out from under his back-loaded deal, it would send a confusing signal to the next class of free agents. For what it’s worth, I think this could be overthinking it. The Padres don’t have the same stigma as the Marlins. The Friars could easily market such a trade as comparable to the Red Sox dump of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.
  • Per Olney, multiple teams have engaged the Phillies regarding Hamels. Sources have also indicated that Jonathan Papelbon could be dealt very soon. Philadelphia has long been expected to dump pricey veterans at the deadline, but recent rumors have suggested the club could also stand pat until the offseason.

Trade Notes: Hamels, Pitching, Mets, Johnson, Beede

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Two weeks from this writing, the non-waiver trade deadline will be firmly in the rear-view mirror. Rumors pertaining to trades and actual trade activity should pick up substantially here over the coming 14 days, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports previews the deadline for all 30 clubs, examining each buyer’s biggest need, each seller’s greatest asset and what will determine the course of the teams that have yet to plot a course of action. Similarly, ESPN’s Buster Olney took a look at the biggest questions surrounding each of the 30 teams heading into the second half — many of which have revolve around trade deadline strategies (ESPN Insider subscription required).

General overviews aside, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the league…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post is surprised by the number of executives he’s spoken to that feel the Phillies will not trade Cole Hamels this summer, barring a no-brainer offer (Twitter links). Sherman says that many within the industry feel that new Phillies president Andy MacPhail may wait until the Winter Meetings to shop Hamels, as he’ll by then be more comfortable with the scouts that are giving him advice and have input from a more functional analytics department.
  • Newsday’s Marc Carig writes that while names like Justin Upton, Carlos Gomez and Jay Bruce would all have appeal to the Mets, each would also come with a steep prospect price. Such transactions aren’t commonplace for the Mets, Carig notes, but the addition of a versatile outfielder such as Will Venable or Gerardo Parra could help improve the club’s production at a lower cost. And, as ESPN’s Buster Olney notes (on Twitter), the Mets should be highly motivated to add pieces, as 17 of the team’s final 39 games come against a pair of selling clubs: the Phillies and Braves.
  • Sherman also hears that the Dodgers, Astros, Royals and Blue Jays are the four teams that are most aggressively trying to add pitching at this juncture (Twitter link). The Royals and Blue Jays scouted the Reds, who are said to be ready to move both Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, heavily before the break.
  • Part of the reasoning behind the Braves’ signings of right-hander Jason Frasor and left-hander Ross Detwiler is that the team wanted to add some veteran leadership to a bullpen that will likely soon be without Jim Johnson, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Johnson, in Bowman’s estimation, is very likely to be traded in the near future.
  • Giants prospect Tyler Beede’s name is in high demand in trade talks, manager Bruce Bochy tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link). Per Bochy, Beede’s name is the first one mentioned by opposing clubs in the majority of the Giants’ trade talks. San Francisco selected Beede with the No. 14 pick in the 2014 draft, and he has a 2.91 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 89 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A in his first full pro season.

Reds Prefer Not To Package Cueto, Chapman In Same Trade

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The Reds are reportedly prepared to trade both Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, but while there’s been a good deal of speculation about the possibility of packaging Cueto and closer Aroldis Chapman, the team is not presently entertaining the notion, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. If the Reds do decide to make Chapman available — and based on Nightengale’s wording, there’s been no decision on that front yet — the preference would be to move the pair in separate transactions.

There’s less motivation for the Reds to move Chapman in the coming two weeks than there is for the team to move Cueto and Leake, as Chapman still has one season of team control remaining beyond the current campaign. Of course, that season will be an expensive one. Chapman’s earning $8.05MM in 2015 and is due a raise in arbitration this winter. Given his brilliant numbers — 32 saves, 1.69 ERA, 65-to-20 K/BB ratio in 37 1/3 innings — it’s easy to envision his price tag soaring into the $11-12MM range. Chapman did, after all, receive a $3.05MM raise this past offseason on the strength of similar numbers in 2014.

It would seem to me that if the plan is to trade Cueto and Leake at peak value, then moving Chapman is a reasonable step as well. His value certainly goes down following the season — he’ll have less team control and a higher price tag — and the 2016 season could be one of transition for the Reds. He’d still fetch a haul this winter or even next July, but when considering the number of teams needing bullpen help and the lack of clear sellers on the market, it’s easy to see that Chapman would be among the game’s most coveted trade targets.

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