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NL Central Notes: Helsley, Reds, Stephenson

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Ahead of their victory over Ryan Helsley in an arbitration hearing, the Cardinals reportedly discussed a multi-year deal with the right-hander, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Woo notes that the sides were far apart, with the biggest issue being Helsley’s durability. As Woo notes, the Cardinals were concerned with Helsley’s rarely pitching on back-to-back days last year, while Helsley’s camp pointed out that he frequently went multiple innings during appearances as an explanation for that.

Helsley pitched on back-to-back days eight times in 2022, with eighteen of his 54 appearances lasting longer than 1.0 IP, though just nine of his appearances involved pitch counts greater than 25. Whatever one makes of his durability, however, Helsley certainly turned in a dominant 2022 season as he pitched to a sterling 1.25 ERA good for a 306 ERA+, meaning he was more than three times more effective than the league average pitcher in 2022. That performance was backed by a strong 2.34 FIP thanks to Helsley’s fantastic 39.3% strikeout rate and solid 8.4% walk rate. His K-BB% of 31 ranked fourth best in the majors last year among those with at least 60 innings of work.

For his part, Helsley told reporters that there were “no hard feelings” between himself and the organization, though he noted that the arbitration process was a tough one and that he and other players “wish it was a little different.”

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson will likely see more time off from his duties behind the plate this year, manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Bell plans for Stephenson to catch around 65 games this season, with about 80 games split between the DH slot and first base, allowing him to play around 140-50 games this season. Stephenson was limited to just 50 games and 183 plate appearances in 2022 due to injuries, but he hit well in those appearances, slashing .319/.372/.484, good for a wRC+ of 134. That overall line was likely helped by an inflated .409 BABIP, but as a career 119 wRC+ hitter, Stephenson still figures to be a key cog in the Reds lineup in 2023 as long as he can stay healthy. The Reds are no doubt hoping that less time behind the plate will help Stephenson stay on the field this year, while still allowing him to primarily be a catcher. The Reds expect to roster three catchers headed into Opening Day, with Curt Casali and Luke Maile both signed to big league deals.
  • Sticking with the Reds, Bell tells reporters, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, that his hope is to have more than one left-handed reliever in his bullpen this year. Reiver Sanmartin is the only lefty currently expected to be part of Cincinnati’s Opening Day bullpen, coming off a difficult season where he posted a 6.32 ERA (71 ERA+) in 57 innings with the big league club. Two potential options to join Sanmartin in the bullpen this year are Daniel Norris and Alex Young, both of whom are in camp on non-roster invitations. Norris struggled in 2022, posting a 5.22 ERA (76 ERA+) in 58 2/3 innings split between the Cubs and the Tigers last year. Young, however, found success in 2022 pitching for the Guardians and Giants. The lefty posted a 2.36 ERA (175 ERA+) with a 2.89 FIP in 26 2/3 innings, almost all of which came in San Francisco.

Reds Sign Chase Anderson To Minor League Deal

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The Reds are signing a minor league deal with right-hander Chase Anderson, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Anderson will not receive an invitation to major league camp.

Anderson, 35, spent most of last year in Triple-A, signing minor league deals with the Tigers, Rays and then Reds. He made 16 starts and 11 relief appearances at that level, posting a 4.50 ERA over 80 innings. He struck out 20.9% of batters faced and walked 8.4% of them.

The Reds selected him to their major league roster in August and he tossed 24 innings over nine appearances for them down the stretch. His 6.38 ERA in that time certainly wasn’t pretty, but it’s possible he deserved better than that, as he struck out 22.3% of batters faced and got grounders at a strong 51.6% clip. His 14.6% walk rate was on the high side but his 55.2% strand rate likely played a role in adding some earned runs to his ledger, as his 5.07 FIP and 4.77 SIERA suggest.

Anderson spent many years as an effective starter for the Brewers but things went sideways for him in 2020 when with the Blue Jays. He posted a 7.22 ERA that year and then a 6.75 with the Phillies in 2021. He’ll look to get back on track with a Reds team that doesn’t have much certainty in its pitching staff. The rotation looks to be fronted by three guys who made their debuts last year in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. They should be followed by Luke Weaver and Luis Cessa, who have been around a bit longer but Cessa’s had more success as a reliever and Weaver is a few years removed from his last stint as an effective starter. Other options on the roster include Connor Overton, Justin Dunn and Brandon Williamson. The bullpen is headlined by Alexis Díaz, Lucas Sims, Reiver Sanmartin and Buck Farmer but there’s not much certainty beyond that group.

Reds Re-Sign Hunter Strickland To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have announced they’ve re-signed right-handed reliever Hunter Strickland to a minor league deal.

Strickland, 34, was a mainstay in their bullpen last year, pitching to a 4.91 ERA across 62 1/3 innings. Those numbers came with a 21.1% strikeout rate and an 11.6% walk rate. While his strikeout numbers were pretty much in line with his career averages, that walk rate was the highest he’d posted in his nine-year big league career.

Originally drafted in the 18th round of the 2007 draft by the Red Sox, Strickland would eventually make his big league debut for the Giants during the 2014 season, pitching in the World Series that year as the Giants were crowned champions. He was a really effective member of San Francisco bullpen between 2014-17, working to a 2.64 ERA over 180 2/3 innings.

He experienced some decline in 2018 and was non-tendered by the Giants following that season. Since then, he’s bounced around the league a bit, appearing for the Mariners, Nationals, Mets, Rays, Brewers, Angels and Reds since 2019, and compiling a 4.18 ERA over 148 2/3 innings in that time.

Read The Transcript Of Our Live Chat Hosted By Former MLB Pitcher Deck McGuire

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Deck McGuire was drafted 11th overall in 2010 by the Blue Jays as a starting pitcher out of Georgia Tech, signing for $2MM.  Baseball America ranked him 95th among all prospects shortly after that.  At the time, BA felt that McGuire’s “good stuff and polish” and college resume would result in a quick path to Toronto’s rotation.

Things went off track for McGuire in 2012 at Double-A, however.  Eventually, the Blue Jays traded McGuire to the A’s for cash considerations in July 2014.  He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers in 2015, and another one with the Cardinals after that season.  McGuire continued finding Triple-A jobs, signing with the Reds prior to the 2017 campaign.

After a strong 2017 season as a starter at the Double-A level, the Reds rewarded the tenacious McGuire with a September call-up.  He made his MLB debut at the age of 28, entering a bases loaded situation against the Cardinals and inducing a double play off the bat of Harrison Bader.  McGuire even got to finish that season with a start at Wrigley Field, tossing five scoreless with only two hits allowed and a strikeout of Kris Bryant.

Following the ’17 season, McGuire moved back to the Jays on a minor league deal.  By May, he was working out of the bullpen for the team that had drafted him eight years prior.  In June of that year, the Rangers claimed McGuire off waivers, trading him to the Angels shortly thereafter.  He made it back to the bigs for a few spot starts, also working out of the Halos’ bullpen that year.

After being part of three MLB organizations in 2018, McGuire signed a deal with KBO’s Samsung Lions.  He made 21 starts for that club, including the 14th no-hitter in KBO history.  McGuire landed with the Rays on a minor league deal in February 2020.  That minor league season was lost to the pandemic, and McGuire moved to the Rakuten Monkeys of the Chinese Professional Baseball League for ’21.

McGuire started the ’22 season in the Atlantic League, which he parlayed into another minor league deal with the Reds.  McGuire wrapped up his pitching career last December, writing on Twitter, “For 12 years I got to live out my dream of being a professional baseball player.”

McGuire’s journeyman career was not what anyone expected when the Blue Jays drafted him 11th overall, but his perseverance got him to the Majors for 51 2/3 innings with the Reds, Blue Jays, and Angels.  Even in that brief time he struck out Bryant, Jose Altuve, Rafael Devers, and Ryan Braun, among many others.  McGuire pitched for seven different MLB organizations while also spending multiple seasons overseas.

Asked about his post-retirement plans, Deck wrote in an email, “As of right now my plans are to stay in the game somehow. I’m currently working with some guys and youth teams in my area of Colorado. I’m gonna head back to Georgia Tech in the fall to graduate and be around the program.”  You can follow Deck on Twitter @deckmcguire.

Today, Deck chatted for over an hour with MLBTR readers, talking about the differences between KBO and MLB, the pressure of being a high draft pick, dealing with hecklers, and much more.  Read the transcript here.

Reds Sign Daniel Norris To Minor League Deal

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The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Daniel Norris to a minor league contract and invited him to big league camp. The Excel Sports client will vie for a job in the Cincinnati bullpen this spring.

Norris, 29, split the 2021-22  seasons between the Tigers, Brewers and Cubs, struggling to a combined 5.68 ERA through 115 2/3 innings across the three clubs. It’s a far cry from his excellent showing with the Tigers during the shortened 2020 campaign, when he pitched to a 3.25 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate against a 6% walk rate through 27 2/3 frames.

Once regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, Norris was the headline piece in the 2015 trade that also sent Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt from the Blue Jays to the Tigers in return for then-ace David Price. Norris showed promise at varying points with Detroit — 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 innings from 2015-16 — but was also slowed by health troubles, most notably including a frightening bout with thyroid cancer.

All told, Norris carries a 4.71 ERA in 569 2/3 innings at the MLB level. He’s punched out 21.6% of his opponents overall but has piled up strikeouts at an above-average 24.8% clip over the past three seasons. Conversely, he has a solid 8.6% walk rate in his career but has seen that mark creep up to 10.7% over the past three years.

The Cincinnati bullpen recently lost one of its most talented relievers, Tejay Antone, for as much as half the season following a flexor strain that required a platelet-rich plasma injection. Alexis Diaz is locked in as the closer, while Lucas Sims and Buck Farmer are virtual locks in the setup corps. At the moment, Reiver Sanmartin is the lone lefty reliever on the 40-man roster, but he’s coming off 57 innings with a 6.32 ERA, a poor 18.4% strikeout rate and a bloated 11.3% walk rate. Sanmartin was solid against lefties but walked nearly as many righties (12.1%) as he struck out (12.9%) while yielding a jarring .324/.404/.529 slash against them.

Norris will join Alex Young as one of two veteran non-roster lefties vying for a spot in manager David Bell’s bullpen, so he ought to have a decent chance at winning a job if he pitches well this spring.

Reds Notes: Antone, Santillan, Senzel

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Reds reliever Tejay Antone announced last week he’d miss the start of the season after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a flexor strain in his forearm. He didn’t provide many more specifics but implied he could be sidelined by the All-Star Break. While that’s potentially still on the table, manager David Bell only indicated today that Antone would be out at least through the end of April (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Antone’s coming off a lost 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery towards the tail end of the ’21 campaign. That was the second such procedure of his career, with injuries conspiring to rob the Reds of arguably their best reliever. Before his surgery, the former fifth-round draftee had pitched 33 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball with a 32.8% strikeout rate.

Getting him back as quickly as possible will be crucial for a Cincinnati club that didn’t make any MLB additions to its bullpen this offseason. The Reds’ relief corps was a bottom ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential last season. The expected returns of Antone and Lucas Sims from surgery rehabs would’ve reinstalled a pair of high-leverage options. Sims is on track for full spring participation, Bell informed reporters today, but Antone’s loss subtracts one of the highest-upside hurlers from the mix.

Cincinnati might also be without Tony Santillan to start the season, Bell indicated. The 6’3″ righty didn’t pitch in last year’s second half on account of a lower back injury. That apparently carried into his offseason, and Santillan is behind schedule in his throwing program. A former second-round pick and once one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the Reds’ system, he’s settled in as a reliever at the MLB level. Santillan came out of the bullpen 21 times last year, allowing 14 runs in 19 2/3 innings.

In more fortunate health news, center fielder Nick Senzel appears to be mostly ready to go for camp. The 27-year-old told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic he feels good and has recovered from offseason toe surgery (Twitter link). While he indicated he might be built up a little more slowly than most players, it seems he’s on track for Opening Day. Senzel still looks the favorite for regular center field reps, though the Reds added a potential alternative with the acquisition of Will Benson from the Guardians last week. A former second overall pick, Senzel will be looking for a breakout year after hitting .240/.303/.360 through his first 273 MLB games.

Reds Outright Alejo López

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The Reds have outrighted infielder Alejo López after he cleared waivers, reports Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, with López staying in camp as a non-roster invitee. He was designated for assignment last week when the club acquired outfielder Will Benson from the Guardians.

López, 27 in May, has appeared in each of the past two major league seasons but with little to show for it thus far. In 75 games, he’s hit .262/.307/.321 for a wRC+ of 70, indicating he’s been 30% below league average at the plate. He has at least provided some defensive versatility, spending time at second base, third base and all three outfield positions.

One of his best attributes is that he’s very difficult to strike out. He’s only gone down on strikes in 14.5% of his major league plate appearances thus far and usually at even lower rates in the minors. However, he also doesn’t walk much and provides little power, with only one big league home run in his career and never topping six in the minors.

Since he has never been outrighted before and has less than three years of service time, he doesn’t have the right to reject an outright assignment and will therefore stick with the Reds. He’ll try to earn his way back onto the roster at some point, with the club’s infield mix a little uncertain at the moment. Jonathan India should be at second base with Kevin Newman at short and Spencer Steer at third, with Jose Barrero perhaps in the mix for some playing time as well. López will be jockeying with other non-roster invitees like Richie Martin, Jason Vosler and Matt Reynolds, trying to earn a spot as a bench infielder or utility option.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Latest On Nick Senzel’s Injury Rehab

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Nick Senzel saw his 2022 season cut a little short after fracturing a toe in his left foot in September. The injury cost him the final couple weeks of the year and lingered into the offseason, as it didn’t heal as anticipated. Senzel underwent surgery to correct the issue in the middle of November. Initial reports suggested that wasn’t expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training, though it’s not clear whether that’s still the case.

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that Senzel has spent most of the offseason in a walking boot and suggests it’s now undermined when he’ll be a full-go for exhibition action. There’s still no indication the start of the regular season is in jeopardy. Nevertheless, it’s certainly not an ideal lead-up to what’s shaping up to be a pivotal year for the 27-year-old.

Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft. He predictably appeared among the game’s top prospect rankings in the intervening two years before making his MLB debut in 2019. Regarded by many evaluators as an advanced hitter who could play above-average defense at second or third base, Senzel has yet to tap into that upside at the major league level.

He’s posted below-average offensive numbers in all four of his MLB seasons, combining for a career line of .240/.303/.360 in a little more than 1000 plate appearances. Senzel also quickly moved off the infield and has spent the vast majority of his innings in center field. Statcast has generally rated him as an average defender there; Defensive Runs Saved, on the other hand, has panned his outfield work.

Regardless of his defensive acumen, Senzel will need to do more at the plate if he’s to continue garnering everyday playing time. The Reds seem prepared to give him that opportunity. Manager David Bell told reporters last month he’s likely to get the first crack in center field (Nightengale link). Cincinnati brass has expressed some openness to moving him around the diamond a little more during the upcoming season, though the Reds have a number of interesting infielders who are at or nearing the MLB level. The outfield outlook is less certain, with players like Nick Solak, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild and Michael Siani joining Senzel on the 40-man roster.

It looks like a potential make-or-break season for Senzel, who has now surpassed three years of MLB service time. He and the club settled on a $1.95MM salary to avoid arbitration this winter. He’ll be eligible for that process twice more before reaching free agency after the 2025 season. That gives the Reds a bit of long-term contractual upside if he takes the step forward the organization has long envisioned, though another below-average showing would likely make him a non-tender candidate next winter.

Mike Minor Likely To Throw For Teams Later This Month

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Free-agent lefty Mike Minor implied back in September that he was considering retirement following an injury-shortened 2022 campaign in Cincinnati. However, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports that Minor feels good after spending the offseason throwing in preparation for the 2023 season and is likely to host a throwing session for teams later this month. Minor had told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer back on Sept. 24, “I’m not closing the door, but it’s barely cracked,” when asked about whether he’d return for a 12th Major League season.

Minor, 35, was traded from the Royals to the Reds not long before the 2022 season but spent the first two months of the year on the injured list due to shoulder troubles. Following his activation in early June, he’d go on to make 19 starts for Cincinnati, but the season was generally a struggle. Minor’s 90.4 mph average fastball was a career-worst mark, and while his 8.8% walk rate was only slightly higher than the league average, it also represented the highest rate of the typically precise lefty’s career. Minor’s 16.7% strikeout rate, too was a career-worst. In his 98 innings with the Reds, Minor scuffled to a 6.06 ERA while allowing an average of 2.2 home runs per nine frames.

It was a far cry from Minor’s peak years, the last of which came in 2019 when he tossed 208 1/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with the Rangers. Even as Minor’s bottom-line results suffered in 2020-21 (5.18 ERA), he maintained a sharp 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate. The Reds were surely intrigued by those traits when they acquired him, but each trended in the wrong direction during what now looks like it’ll be his lone season in Cincinnati.

Discouraging as the past three seasons have been for Minor, the lefty enjoyed a nice peak from 2011-19 when he pitched to a 3.82 ERA while showing the ability to miss bats and limit walks. Minor has long had a knack for suppressing hard contact, and even through all of last season’s struggles, the 88.2 mph average exit velocity he yielded and the 34.9% hard-hit rate were both lower than the respective league averages of 88.6 mph and 38.2%. Minor’s issue wasn’t so much an excess of hard contact as it was that when he did yield hard contact, it was particularly damaging.

Minor is one of a dwindling number of experienced big league starters left on the market for teams seeking rotation depth. Michael Wacha is perhaps the last remaining free-agent starter who could command a multi-year deal, but Minor joins the likes of Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Anibal Sanchez and Chase Anderson as seasoned alternatives who could be had on lower-risk arrangements.

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