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Cafardo’s Latest: Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Quintana, Cueto, Samardzija, Rangers, Cozart

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at nine teams who are trending upward this season and nine teams who are on the downward swing in his latest notes column.  These rankings (and Cafardo’s piece in general) contain several hot stove items as teams look to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  The highlights…

  • The Yankees are looking for a third baseman, according to league sources.  Chase Headley got off to a hot start but scuffled badly in May, posting just a .446 OPS in 90 plate appearances last month.  Top prospect Gleyber Torres has been getting some reps at third base in the minors amidst rumors that he could be promoted later this season, though New York could prefer a more proven veteran for the hot corner if the team is chasing a pennant.  Headley is still owed $21.6MM through the end of the 2018 season, though the Yankees have shown a willingness to reduce the playing time of other highly-paid veterans in the past if they aren’t producing.
  • “Most talent evaluators” believe the Dodgers will make a play for the top starter available at the deadline.  The Dodgers’ rotation has combined for 6.2 fWAR (second in baseball) and a 3.94 ERA (third in baseball), though given the number of injury concerns within their staff, it wouldn’t be a shock if L.A. pursued yet another notable arm.
  • Cafardo also suggests that the Cubs will look to acquire a top starter, even if they’re one of the teams on the “trending down” list.  Cafardo believes the retirement of clubhouse leader David Ross has had a bigger impact on the Cubs than the team is willing to admit.
  • Some teams that were in on Jose Quintana have cooled their interest thanks to the southpaw’s rough start to the season.  There has been some questions about whether Quintana is healthy, though the White Sox say he is healthy.  Quintana has a 5.60 ERA in 64 1/3 innings, with career highs in BB/9 (3.36) and homer rate (13%) combining with a career-low 37.8% ground ball rate.  On the plus side, he also has a career-best 8.96 K/9 and ERA indicators are all over a run lower than his 5.60 real-world ERA.
  • “Don’t look for major subtractions” from the Giants, even if the team doesn’t make any additions at the deadline.  Cafardo doesn’t expect the Giants to deal the likes of Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija.  I would imagine San Francisco is hoping to make a quick return to contention next season, though if Cueto gives them an indication that he’ll opt out of his contract this winter, a trade could be explored.
  • The Rangers are also a team that won’t go into full-scale selling mode, so Cafardo expects them to wait and see if they should pursue starting pitching help for a run at a wild card slot.
  • Zack Cozart has often been mentioned in trade rumors over the last couple of years as the Reds have been rebuilding, though one AL GM wonders why Cincinnati hasn’t instead explored an extension with the veteran shortstop.  The Reds’ long-term plan is to have Jose Peraza at short and Dilson Herrera at second, so on paper, Cozart makes more sense as a trade chip than a building block.  While Cozart is mashing the ball and playing his usual excellent defense, he also turns 32 in August and may be declining by the time the Reds are again ready to contend.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/2/17

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Here are Friday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Reds have released left-hander Lucas Luetge from Triple-A, tweets Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The former Mariners southpaw inked a minors deal with Cincinnati this offseason and has tossed 27 2/3 innings for the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville. In that time, Luetge has recorded a pedestrian 4.55 ERA, though it’s accompanied by a much more encouraging 30-to-9 K/BB ratio. Luetge hasn’t had much big league success (4.35 ERA in 89 innings), but he has a history of missing bats in Triple-A and has held lefties to a .225/.295/.275 batting line through 45 plate appearances this season.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cecil, Cubs, Arrieta

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In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Reds have fared better in some recent trades than had been expected at the time. Indeed, the club is receiving significant contributions from a variety of position players who were added in relatively unheralded swaps, including Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall, and Jose Peraza.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • It came as something of a surprise when lefty Brett Cecil landed four years from the Cardinals, but Rosenthal says other organizations were also willing to do four-year deals for the 30-year-old reliever. The Cubs and Mariners had such offers on the table, though both are said to have underbid St. Louis. As Rosenthal notes, the scuffling Cecil has shown at least some signs recently of emerging from his malaise.
  • Everyone is wondering why the Cubs have failed to break out from their sluggish start, and Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has a look under the hood. The issues aren’t isolated, he finds. Fairly widespread performance dips at the plate, in the field, and on the mound have resulted in a sub-.500 record that is largely deserved based on what the team has done. Though it remains reasonable to expect Chicago to improve its play, Cameron writes, the projections no longer view the current roster as a unique force.
  • Clearly, Jake Arrieta isn’t the only Cubs player who is struggling through the first two months of the season, but he’s perhaps the most prominent. With free agency on the horizon, the stakes are particularly high. His agent, Scott Boras, still thinks that Arrieta’s overall body of work compares favorably to a pair of pitchers (David Price and Max Scherzer) who landed over $200MM in free agency, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes. Though Boras argues that Arrieta’s recent struggles and declining velocity shouldn’t outweigh his lofty established ceiling and big-game performances, teams weighing massive investments will surely be taking a close look at Arrieta’s work over the first two months and the rest of the current season.

NL Notes: Franco, Capps, Stephenson, Gsellman

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The Phillies have at least held internal discussions about giving third baseman Maikel Franco some time at Triple-A, manager Pete Mackanin told reporters including Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Though nothing has been decided, and Mackanin was non-committal, that’s certainly a notable development. Franco, 24, has long been viewed as a building block for the Phils. But he took a step back last year after an excellent 2015 season, and currently owns a disappointing .209/.268/.349 slash through 190 plate appearances in the current campaign.

Here’s more from around the National League:

  • It’s still not clear just when righty Carter Capps will make his Padres debut. As Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter, skipper Andy Green indicated that the reliever “drew mixed reviews” for his work on the bump yesterday. He’s scheduled to throw against live hitters in another controlled scenario on Friday. Capps, who missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, has struggled in eight rehab appearances thus far.
  • The Reds have optioned righty Robert Stephenson to Triple-A, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. He’ll be replaced by fellow right-hander Jackson Stephens. Things have not gone as hoped for the former first round draft pick. Through 24 2/3 innings in 13 appearances, he carries an 8.03 ERA. Stephenson has been knocked around for 33 hits (including seven long balls) while recording 27 strikeouts against 16 walks. It remains to be seen whether he’ll return to starting upon his return to the minors.
  • With several starters nearing returns, the Mets may again have a bit of extra rotation depth. That will likely force righty Robert Gsellman to the pen — and possibly, into quite a prominent role there. As Kevin Kernan of the New York Post writes, some within the Mets organization believe Gsellman’s stuff and attitude make him a good fit for the closer’s role. Addison Reed is currently filling in for the injured Jeurys Familia in the ninth.

Draft Rumors: Braves, Twins, Reds, Rising Names

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We’re a bit more than two weeks away from the 2017 draft, and rumors surrounding the top of the draft figure to pick up steam in the coming weeks. Some of the latest draft chatter…

  • Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports that the Braves are seriously considering North Carolina prep outfielder Austin Beck with the No. 5 overall pick. GM John Coppolella and scouting director Brian Bridges have held private workouts with Beck, who could sign an under-slot deal with Atlanta, giving the club more freedom to spend aggressively further down the draft board. The Braves went a similar route with the No. 3 overall pick last season when selecting high school righty Ian Anderson and signing him for about $2.5MM under slot. According to Shanks, the Braves have also met with other prep stars like Hunter Greene, Shane Baz, Nick Pratto and Royce Lewis, but Beck is perhaps the favorite to go with the fifth pick (Greene and Lewis are widely expected to be off the board before Atlanta’s pick).
  • Baseball America’s John Manuel published his latest mock draft over the weekend and once again has the Twins selecting Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright with the top overall pick. Minnesota has also considered Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay extensively and seems to like him more as a hitter, writes Manuel, but Wright represents “the best combination of upside and modest risk.” Manuel’s mock draft is free to the public and runs through the supplemental round, so it’s an interesting look for any fan.
  • In his latest inbox column, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo notes that the Reds seem to prefer McKay as a pitcher rather than a hitter, though he goes through a couple of different hypothetical scenarios to illustrate that it’s not a lock that Cincinnati will select McKay even if he is available with their pick. Manuel, it should be pointed out, hears a bit differently, suggesting that the Reds are leaning slightly toward McKay as a hitter and adds that Cincinnati will take either McKay or Greene.
  • BA’s Carlos Collazo recently listed five high school talents whose stock is on the rise as the draft approaches and offers an explanation on each from an unnamed front office executive. Per Collazo, righty Caden Lemons, outfielder Mason House, right-hander Tommy Mace, left-hander Brendan Murphy and right-hander Jackson Rutledge have all worked their way into BA’s Top 200.

Reds Acquire Darnell Sweeney From Dodgers

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The Dodgers have traded infielder/outfielder Darnell Sweeney to the Reds for future considerations, tweets J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group.

Los Angeles has now traded Sweeney twice, the first time coming when it sent him to Philadelphia in 2015 to acquire second baseman Chase Utley. Then, the Dodgers got Sweeney back last offseason as part of the return they received from the Phillies in trading veteran infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick. Sweeney returned to LA in the deal with infielder Darin Ruf. Given that Ruf is now playing in the Korea Baseball Organization, the Dodgers have nothing to show for the Kendrick trade anymore.

Sweeney, a 26-year-old switch-hitter, has seen major league action in one season – 2015 – and hit .176/.286/.353 during that 98-plate appearance showing with the Phillies. The plurality of his work has come at Triple-A, where he owns a .250/.314/.383 slash in 1,100 PAs (including a .227/.290/.412 line in 131 Pacific Coast League plate trips this season). While Sweeney hasn’t gotten on base much in the minors, he is somewhat of a threat when he does, having swiped 141 bags at Triple-A (albeit with 67 caught stealings). Defensive versatility is a selling point for Sweeney, who has lined up at second, short, third and two outfield positions (left and center) in the minors.

Rangers Claim Peter O’Brien

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The Rangers have claimed 1B/OF Peter O’Brien from the Reds, the two clubs have announced. To clear space on their 40-man roster, the Rangers have moved righty Tyson Ross to the 60-day DL. They’ve optioned O’Brien to Triple-A Round Rock.

O’Brien’s stay in the Reds organization was brief — they claimed him from the Royals less than two weeks ago. Cincinnati designated him for assignment when they claimed Jake Buchanan from the Cubs earlier this week.

O’Brien will be 27 later this summer and has struggled in Triple-A this season, posting a .168/.252/.304 line there this season. He also hasn’t fared well in brief trials at the big-league level, batting .176/.228/.446 in 79 plate appearances spanning two years with the Diamondbacks. It is, however, fairly easy to see why he continues to generate interest on the waiver wire — he hit 24 or more minor-league home runs for four straight seasons from 2013 to 2016.

Perhaps unsurprisingly given O’Brien’s recent struggles, though, he has never controlled the strike zone very well, culminating in a 147-strikeout season in Triple-A Reno last year in which he walked only 23 times. The Rangers already have a faintly similar player in slugger Joey Gallo, although O’Brien looks far more like a journeyman than whatever Gallo will turn out to be — he’s significantly older, and his power is perhaps less jaw-dropping than Gallo’s. (He’s also right-handed, whereas Gallo bats lefty.) In any case, the Rangers can stash O’Brien at Triple-A for awhile to see if he makes any progress developing a more well-rounded offensive approach to complement his power.

International Notes: July 2 Prospects, Garcia, Robert

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Ben Badler of Baseball America has provided three separate looks at the 2017-18 international free agency period over the past week or so, running down 20 well-regarded prospects as well as their likely destinations once the signing period kicks off on July 2. Badler’s scouting efforts do require a subscription, though I’d highly recommend it for those who are interested in the international market (as well as the upcoming amateur draft, which BA obviously covers extensively as well). Financial details on all of the names within aren’t available, though Badler does report that 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Wander Franco (not to be confused with the Royals prospect of the same name) is expected to sign with the Rays for a bonus just shy of $4MM. Franco also ranked No. 1 on the International Top 30 of MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez — another invaluable resource for those wishing to brush up on the top international prospects on the market in the weeks leading up to the new signing period.  Those seeking a refresher on the new international spending limitations from the most recent collective bargaining agreement can refer back to Badler’s recap from this past December, as well (no subscription required on that one).

A couple more notes on the international market…

  • Cuban shortstop Jose Israel Garcia was recently declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, and he’s drawing interest from a number of clubs. To this point, the Reds, Astros and Padres have all shown interest in Garcia. That would seem to indicate that he’s looking to sign before the current period comes to a close on June 15, as each of those teams has exceeded its 2016-17 pool allotment to the point that they’ll incur maximum penalization in the 2017-18 class. There’s not much data on the 19-year-old Garcia, though Heyman has described him as “slick-fielding.”
  • ESPN’s Keith Law wonders (Insider subscription required and recommended) whether the White Sox made a mistake in making such a substantial commitment to Cuban star Luis Robert. As Law notes, position players from Cuba have flopped in the Majors more than they’ve succeeded. Law also adds that he’s spoken to a number of scouts to gauge Robert’s abilities, as he’s yet to be able to see Robert himself, and each scout to whom he spoke offered concerns about Robert’s hit tool. All agreed that he’s athletic and is a plus runner in addition to possessing above-average bat speed and raw power as well, however. Conversely, Law suggests that if one team was going to “overpay” and take such a significant gamble on Robert’s upside, the Cardinals had the best rationale. The Cards are without their top three picks in the 2017 draft after forfeiting one to sign Dexter Fowler and losing another two as punishment in the notorious data breach scandal, thus depriving them of means to add high-impact young talent. While Robert is certainly a risk, the Cardinals’ lack of alternative means of acquiring young talent would’ve made them a better fit to make the gamble. St. Louis was also already over its bonus pool even without Robert, while the Sox only just pushed themselves into the penalty bracket with Robert’s deal.

Reds Claim Jake Buchanan, Designate Peter O’Brien

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The Reds announced that they’ve claimed right-hander Jake Buchanan off waivers from the Cubs and designated minor league outfielder Peter O’Brien for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Buchanan, it seems, will be added to the Major League roster, as Cincinnati also announced that left-hander Amir Garrett has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to inflammation in his right hip.

The 27-year-old Buchanan has seen time in the Majors each year from 2014-16, tossing a combined 50 1/3 innings of 3.75 ERA ball for the Astros and the Cubs. In that time, he’s averaged just 5.2 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 with a tepid 88.7 mph average on his sinker, though he’s also generated grounders at an excellent 58.5 percent clip.

The Astros shifted Buchanan away from the rotation in 2015, but the Cubs have plugged him back into a starting role in the past two seasons. This year, he’s made eight starts (41 2/3 innings) for Triple-A Iowa and posted a 4.75 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate.

O’Brien, meanwhile has now been designated for assignment by his third organization of the past six months. The new-look Diamondbacks front office cut him loose back in December and traded him to the Royals in exchange for minor league righty Sam Lewis. However, O’Brien’s strong Spring Training was followed by a woeful .162/.235/.276 batting line in his first 27 games with Kansas City’s Triple-A affiliate, prompting a second DFA and a waiver claim from the Reds. Through five games with Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate, O’Brien hit .200/.333/.450.

The 26-year-old O’Brien has long intrigued fans with his excellent power numbers in Triple-A, but Major League teams appear to be persistently wary of his lack of defensive value and penchant for racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate. Originally a catcher in the Yankees’ organization, the D-backs moved O’Brien to the outfield due to defensive deficiencies behind the plate. His glovework there and at first base both remain a work in progress. He’s made some level of progress in terms of plate discipline this year, as his 26.6 percent strikeout rate is down from last year’s mark of 33.8 percent in Triple-A Reno. Still, a near-27 percent clip is rather lofty for a 26-year-old in Triple-A with questionable defensive value.

As for Garrett, the 25-year-old rookie southpaw has been torched for a 13 runs on a dozen hits and five walks with seven strikeouts in nine innings since his most recent recall from Triple-A. Of those 12 hits against him, six have cleared the fence for home runs. That’s a far cry from the form Garrett showed early in the year, logging five quality starts in his first six appearances and pitching to a 4.25 ERA.

Minor MLB Transactions: 5/23/17

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Here are the latest minor moves from around the game:

  • The Blue Jays announced that catcher Michael Ohlman has cleared outright waivers and accepted an assignment to Triple-A Buffalo. Ohlman had the option to elect free agency, having been previously outrighted in his career, but he’ll return to Buffalo in hopes of another big league opportunity with the Jays. The 26-year-old went 2-for-9 in his brief MLB debut with Toronto this year, and he’s slashed a more impressive .246/.388/.594 with seven homers and three doubles through 23 Triple-A contests.

Earlier Moves

  • Right-hander Al Alburquerque has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Omaha, the Royals announced on Tuesday. Kansas City designated the veteran 30-year-old for assignment over the weekend after just four innings with the big league bullpen. Alburquerque has totaled just six innings in the Majors over the past two seasons after serving as a regular in the Detroit ’pen from 2013-15. The hard-throwing Alburquerque has no trouble missing bats but has long been prone to control issue as well. Alburquerque has the option to reject the assignment in favor of free agency.
  • Per an Orioles announcement, catcher Francisco Pena has been outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. The out-of-options 27-year-old has seen limited action in the majors in recent years, but has slashed .249/.295/.452 in his 1,221 career plate appearances at Triple-A. While he’s a highly regarded defender, Pena may need to boost his on-base abilities before he’ll earn a full shot at the majors.
  • The Phillies have released southpaw Mario Hollands, per Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). Once a promising young reliever, Hollands seemingly never fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. The 28-year-old has produced middling results in the upper minors over the past two seasons since sitting out all of 2015. This year, he has allowed a dozen walks in his 13 frames at Double-A.
  • Also hitting the open market is former Phillies righty Dalier Hinojosa, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The 31-year-old worked to a 1.51 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 through 35 2/3 MLB frames in 2015-16, but clearly hadn’t convinced teams that was sustainable. Hinojosa hasn’t yet pitched this year due to a shoulder injury.
  • It seems that righty Daniel Bard is back at a career crossroads, as he has been released by the Cardinals, according to Eddy’s report. Bard, once an elite bullpen arm with the Red Sox, ran up 19 walks in 8 2/3 outings at the Double-A level as he has continued to struggle to stay in the zone.
  • The Braves released veteran minor-leaguer Blake Lalli, per BA. The 34-year-old catcher saw a bit of action at the major league level last year, but he has mostly plied his trade in the upper minors in recent seasons. He was off to a rough start at the plate this year at Triple-A, with a .167/.226/.271 batting line through 53 plate appearances.
  • Outfielder Tyler Holt has been released by the Dodgers, Eddy reports. Holt has seen action in each of the last three major league campaigns and appeared in 106 games last year with the Reds, but he’s slashing just .228/.306/.274 in 318 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. The 28-year-old was struggling badly in the upper minors with the Los Angeles organization, but will surely hope to regain some lost momentum with another organization.
  • The White Sox have snapped up righty Jake Johansen, who was released recently by the Nationals, according to Eddy. A second round pick back in 2013, Johansen had failed to make the jump to the upper minors and was cut loose after allowing eight earned runs in 11 2/3 innings at Double-A this year.
  • Veteran infielder Chris Nelson has joined the Royals on a minors deal, per Eddy. Once a semi-regular player with the Rockies, Nelson has bounced around in recent years and hasn’t seen any major league action since 2014. He spent time in 2016 at Triple-A with the Rockies organization, slashing .232/.273/.310 in 218 plate appearances.
  • Finally, the Reds have added MLB veteran Vin Mazzaro on a minors deal. He had been working in indy ball, throwing six scoreless frames for the Somerset Patriots, but will now try to crack the bigs for the ninth consecutive year. Mazzaro had a nice run with the Pirates in 2013, but has not seen much MLB action since. He did work to a 3.22 ERA over 67 Triple-A frames last year, with 5.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, though obviously he didn’t convince many teams with his underlying skills.
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