- As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
Reds Rumors
Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, Rays, Braves
A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.
- The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
- Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
- It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).
Reds Sign Cuban Shortstop Jose Israel Garcia
JUNE 10: The deal has been cleared by the league and is now official, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets.
JUNE 8: The Reds and Garcia have a deal, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who confirms it’s for $5MM (Twitter link).
JUNE 7: There’s no official deal in place just yet, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, but the Reds are close. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that there’s an agreement in place, but nothing official yet due to the fact that Garcia still needs to pass a physical. Sanchez pegs the bonus at precisely $5MM and says it could become official on Thursday.
JUNE 6: The Reds have agreed to a contract with 19-year-old shortstop Jose Israel Garcia, reports Baseball America’s Ben Badler. The Cuban native, who is subject to international bonus pools due to both his age and lack of professional experience, will receive a bonus of roughly $5MM on his minor league deal, according to Badler. Because the Reds have already vastly exceeded their league-allotted international signing pool, they’ll pay a 100 percent luxury tax on the signing, meaning the addition of Garcia to their improving farm system will cost them somewhere in the vicinity of $10MM.
Badler provides a fairly lengthy scouting report on Garcia that Reds fans will want to check out. Listed at 6’3″ and 170 pounds, Garcia has room to add another 20 or so pounds to his frame and will moving from second base to shortstop in pro ball, per Badler’s piece, though there are questions about his ability to stick at the position. He has the arm for third base but perhaps not the power to profile at the position, as Badler notes that he’s more of a gap hitter whose power ceiling currently projects around 10 to 15 homers per year with plus speed on the bases. Garcia has also been tied to both Houston and San Diego since being declared a free agent.
The Reds have already inked right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez as their two largest international signings of the 2016-17 period, though like the Astros earlier today, they managed to pull off at least one more significant add before the closing of the current signing period on June 15. At that point, there’ll be a roughly two-week dead period where international prospects are ineligible to sign before the 2017-18 signing period kicks off on July 2. As part of their penalty for shattering their bonus pool, Cincinnati will be barred from signing any international free agent for greater than $300K in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 signing periods.
Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, McKay, Ramos, Canning, Heimlich
Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis’ latest for MLB.com contains plenty of new details on next week’s amateur draft. Here’s the latest.
- The Twins now seem increasingly likely to take two-way Louisville player Brendan McKay and develop him as a left-handed pitcher rather than a first baseman, Callis writes. The Twins had previously been connected to Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright, although they had California high school pitcher Hunter Greene in for a workout yesterday. The Reds will take Greene, unless the Twins pick him, in which case they’ll take McKay as a pitcher.
- Heliot Ramos, a high school outfielder from Puerto Rico, could go somewhere in the middle of the first round, perhaps to the Astros, Giants or Orioles.
- UCLA righty Griffin Canning’s stock appears to be falling over issues with his MRI, Mayo writes. Canning had been projected to go in the middle of the first round, but his MRI has some teams already deciding to pass on him. It’s not clear right now what those issues are. It’s perhaps worth noting that Canning’s potential arm troubles don’t seem to have hurt him this year — he has a 2.34 ERA and 140 whiffs over 119 innings this season.
- A report late this week from Danny Moran and Brad Schmidt of the Oregonian should be disturbing news, to say the least, for teams interested in selecting Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich. As a teenager, Heimlich reportedly pleaded guilty to molesting a 6-year-old family member. He reportedly is thus a registered sex offender. He was previously seen as a possible second- or third-rounder, but that seems unlikely after the emergence of this news. “You absolutely can’t draft him,” a scouting official with an NL team told Callis.
Reds Not Planning To Soon Promote Cody Reed
- Cody Reed has been pitching well since his demotion to Triple-A, but Reds manager Bryan Price tells the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan and other reporters that the club has no plans to bring Reed back up to the Show in the near future. Reed, ranked by Baseball America as the #2 prospect in the Reds’ farm system, has a 7.15 ERA over 61 2/3 innings in the big leagues — a 10-start stint in 2016 and seven outings (six relief appearances, one start) to begin this year. “I don’t want to take another step back with this kid. He’s doing too well in Triple-A to feel like we’ve rushed him back and if he has a setback up here we feel like we’re back to square one,” Price said.
Anthony DeSclafani May Not Return Until August
While the Reds are preparing to welcome Homer Bailey and Brandon Finnegan back to their rotation perhaps by the end of the month, manager Bryan Price offered a less encouraging update on top starter Anthony DeSclafani, per Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
“[DeSclafani] is behind,” said Price. “He initiated another throwing program that will take him close to the time that Homer and Finnegan might be ready, that last week or week and a half of June, he may be approaching his mound time. … I wouldn’t anticipate him until probably around August (in Cincinnati). That would be realistic.”
The 27-year-old DeSclafani has yet to pitch in 2017 due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament suffered back in Spring Training. The Reds initially stated that DeSclafani would be shut down from throwing for a month, but he didn’t begin a throwing program until May 19. While reports at that time suggested that the condition of DeSclafani’s UCL had markedly improved, it now seems that the talented young righty will remain sidelined longer than the Reds had hoped. It should be noted that Price made no mention of a setback or any sort of aggravation of the injury.
Both Finnegan and Bailey will make rehab starts for Double-A Pensacola this weekend, Groeschen notes, which is certainly better news for a Reds team that has received an MLB-worst 5.81 ERA from its rotation. (The next-worst team, the Phillies, are at a distant 5.17 mark.) With DeSclafani and Bailey on the shelf all season and Finnegan having been limited to just 10 innings, the Reds have relied on veterans Scott Feldman and Bronson Arroyo to anchor the staff while a hodgepodge of less-experienced arms have filled in the cracks.
Feldman has proven to be a shrewd late-winter pickup, tossing 72 2/3 innings of 4.09 ERA ball across 13 starts. Arroyo, on the other hand, has been rocked for a 6.52 ERA, though he’s at least managed to soak up 63 2/3 innings in the wake of the myriad injuries that have beset the Cincinnati pitching staff. Tim Adleman’s 49 innings rank third on the team, and of the 10 players to start a game for the Reds this year, Adleman is one of three with an ERA under 5.00 (Feldman, Finnegan are the others). Amir Garrett, Rookie Davis and Lisalverto Bonilla have been the most frequent alternatives in the rotation, though each has an ERA north of 7.00.
However, in spite of the dismal work from Cincinnati starters, the Reds find themselves just one game under .500 and two games back from the division lead in a surprisingly weak NL Central. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been one of the best in the game, and only five clubs have managed to score more runs than the Reds, who are also tied for the game’s sixth-best wRC+ (105). That the Reds have managed to stay afloat despite losing the majority of their projected rotation for the bulk of 2017 thus far only makes the return of Finnegan and Bailey more crucial as the team plots its course with the trade deadline roughly seven weeks away.
Reds Notes: Bailey, Finnegan, Cozart
- The Reds’ rotation currently ranks last in the majors in both ERA (5.95) and fWAR (minus-0.9), but a couple of reinforcements are on the way, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Righty Homer Bailey and southpaw Brandon Finnegan will begin Double-A rehab assignments in the next week. “I think both of them [could return] by the end of the month,” said manager Bryan Price. “That would be realistic. It’s not written in stone, but I think by the end of the month, we could have both Finnegan and Homer in our rotation.” Bailey hasn’t pitched at all this season after undergoing February surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow, and has combined for a meager 34 1/3 frames since he had Tommy John surgery in 2015. Before injuries derailed Bailey’s career, he was a quality starter for the Reds, who inked him to a six-year, $105MM extension in 2014. The 31-year-old is still owed more than $60MM through 2020. Finnegan, meanwhile, managed a 2.70 ERA and struck out 14 in 10 innings before going on the DL in mid-April, though he also walked nine. Last season, his first full year as a starter, he managed a 3.98 ERA over a team-high 30 starts.
- While the Reds’ pitching has been disastrous, their position players have been a different story. That group paces the majors in fWAR (13.0), and a large chunk of the unit’s production has come from NL fWAR leader Zack Cozart (3.3). The shortstop produced at respectable levels over the previous two seasons, but he wasn’t anything close to the superstar-caliber performer he has been this season. With that in mind, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs took a look at Cozart’s early success, including a ridiculous .351/.436/.623 line in 225 plate appearances, and came away skeptical that the 31-year-old has truly broken out offensively. There’s nothing in Cozart’s batted-ball data that shows he’s a great hitter now, observes Cameron, who urges the Reds to sell high on him if they can. Cozart is in the final year of his contract, making him a prime trade candidate if Cincinnati goes the expected route and sells at the deadline.
Alfredo Simon Signs With Long Island Ducks
The Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks have announced that they’ve signed and activated righty Alfredo Simon (as SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo noted on Twitter). Simon is a client of MVP Sports Group.
The 36-year-old Simon had three successful seasons with the Reds from 2012 through 2014, but struggled in 2015 after heading to Detroit for Eugenio Suarez and a prospect, and was even worse after returning to Cincinnati last season. Simon finished 2016 with a 9.36 ERA, 6.0 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 over 58 2/3 innings mostly spent in the Reds’ rotation, then had arthroscopic shoulder surgery.
Simon was eligible for free agency last offseason but did not sign, which perhaps isn’t surprising given his 2016 struggles and injury issues. Simon also seemingly has personal baggage — he was accused but ultimately acquitted of involuntary manslaughter in the Dominican Republic in 2011 and settled a civil suit over sexual assault allegations in 2015, although these issues did not seem to have much effect on his ability to find employment before his performance nosedived.
Simon will presumably try to use his stint with the Ducks as a possible springboard to a return to the big leagues. He’ll join a Ducks roster that currently includes former Major Leaguers like Jordan Pacheco, Lew Ford, Marc Krauss, Eury De La Rosa and Chin-hui Tsao, among others.
Why Not Extend Zack Cozart?
- Zack Cozart has often been mentioned in trade rumors over the last couple of years as the Reds have been rebuilding, though one AL GM wonders why Cincinnati hasn’t instead explored an extension with the veteran shortstop. The Reds’ long-term plan is to have Jose Peraza at short and Dilson Herrera at second, so on paper, Cozart makes more sense as a trade chip than a building block. While Cozart is mashing the ball and playing his usual excellent defense, he also turns 32 in August and may be declining by the time the Reds are again ready to contend.
[SOURCE LINK]
Reds Release Lucas Luetge
- The Reds have released left-hander Lucas Luetge from Triple-A, tweets Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The former Mariners southpaw inked a minors deal with Cincinnati this offseason and has tossed 27 2/3 innings for the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville. In that time, Luetge has recorded a pedestrian 4.55 ERA, though it’s accompanied by a much more encouraging 30-to-9 K/BB ratio. Luetge hasn’t had much big league success (4.35 ERA in 89 innings), but he has a history of missing bats in Triple-A and has held lefties to a .225/.295/.275 batting line through 45 plate appearances this season.
