Offseason Rumblings: J.D., Grichuk, Cards, Twins, Rockies
Along with the Diamondbacks (his current team), the Giants, Angels, Cardinals and Red Sox all stand out as potential offseason fits for impending free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. While the Cardinals and Red Sox already have logjams in the outfield, a trade could open up room for Martinez, notes Morosi, who adds that whether the Angels pursue the offensive superstar is going to depend on Justin Upton‘s opt-out decision. The Giants, meanwhile, are in dire need of a slugger and a corner outfielder, making them arguably the most logical match for Martinez, Morosi opines.
- Outfielder Randal Grichuk has come up as someone the Cardinals could trade, and the 26-year-old realizes he may have played his last game in their uniform. On whether he expects to be a Redbird in 2018, Grichuk told Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com: “No. Not necessarily. But who knows. Anything is possible. It’s going to be a fun offseason. It’s going to be an interesting offseason to see what direction the club goes with a lot of guys. I’m excited to see what the future holds.” Grichuk has registered decent production across 1,386 career plate appearances in St. Louis (.249/.297/.488, .239 ISO) and put up back-to-back 20-home run seasons, but a lack of plate discipline has somewhat offset his impressive power and made him a trade candidate. Grichuk is projected to earn $2.8MM in 2018, his first of three arbitration-eligible seasons.
- After Twins pitchers recorded the majors’ third-worst swinging-strike rate in 2017, team brass is hoping to build a staff capable of missing more bats, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press details. At the same time, the Twins aren’t ruling out having some pitch-to-contact types on hand. In fact, even though closers Matt Belisle and Brandon Kintzler (now with the Nationals) generated fewer swings and misses than the average reliever this season, the club’s interested in re-signing the former and reuniting with the latter in free agency, according to Berardino.
- For the second straight offseason, the Rockies will have to work on shoring up their bullpen, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes. The Rockies signed Greg Holland and Mike Dunn to sizable contracts last winter, but Holland’s now set to opt out of his deal and head to the open market again. Colorado probably won’t be able to re-sign the closer, Saunders writes, and the fact that Holland isn’t the team’s only key reliever who could exit in free agency only worsens matters. Jake McGee and July trade acquisition Pat Neshek are also unsigned entering the offseason. Holland, McGee and Neshek were among the best options in a bullpen that made big strides from 2016 to ’17, jumping from 23rd in fWAR to sixth and last in ERA to 20th.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Lucroy
Generally, of course, Jonathan Lucroy‘s stock is down on the heels of a disappointing season. He entered the year with a chance at earning Russell Martin-type money — $82MM over five years — but now won’t scrape that stratosphere.
That said, there’s still a lot of value in the veteran. Just how much? Let’s take a look.
First and foremost, it’s important to note just how good Lucroy was from 2012 through 2016. After all, there’s a reason that folks thought he could meet or exceed that Martin contract. In 641 games over that span, Lucroy posted an excellent .291/.353/.465 batting line that rated about twenty percent above the league-average output. For a catcher that also was regarded among the best at defending his position, those are monster numbers.
That five-year run serves as a notable backdrop for what happened in 2017. Lucroy struggled badly out of the gates, slashing just .242/.297/.338 in his 306 plate appearances with the Rangers. He hit just four home runs in that stretch after drilling 24 in the prior season in 544 trips to the plate. Just as suddenly, though, Lucroy bounced back upon his summer trade to the Rockies. In his 175 turns, the veteran posted a .310/.429/.437 mark while drawing 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts. The power did not fully return — he hit only two more long balls — but clearly Lucroy was again an above-average offensive performer, even after accounting for the altitude boost.
So, how does one frame the recent years? Was the first half of 2017 just a detour? Or should we figure in Lucroy’s tepid 2015 season and isolate his excellent 2016 season as the outlier? What about that waning power?
In all likelihood, clubs will land somewhere in the middle on all of this. It’s certainly quite promising that Lucroy has restored his plate discipline nearly to the levels it stood in 2014, when he walked (10.1%) nearly as often as he struck out (10.8%) over 655 plate appearances. But his isolated slugging mark has now sat below the league average in two of the past three seasons. Plus, Lucroy managed only an anemic 22.3% hard-hit rate in 2017 while his groundball rate soared to over fifty percent for the first time in his career.
Of course, there’s still the matter of Lucroy’s work in the field to be accounted for. There was a time when his mastery of the dark arts behind the dish significantly bolstered the 31-year-old’s value. When he posted 6.2 fWAR in 2014, that was arguably an understatement, as it failed to account for Lucroy’s otherworldly framing skills and management of the pitching staff over a 153-game grind.
Now, the picture seems quite a bit different. Framing metrics panned Lucroy’s work over the first half of 2017. Though he ticked upward in Colorado, it’s still a far sight from the days when Lucroy was the poster child for the newly illuminated art of strike gathering. Still, he drew positive grades as recently as 2016, and it would be rather surprising for such a remarkable degradation in skill to occur so suddenly, so perhaps there’s a bounceback (or another explanation) here. And it’s worth noting that Lucroy has drawn plaudits for his presence on the defensive side from Rockies skipper Bud Black.
All told, the signals leave quite a lot of room for interpretation. No doubt many organizations will feel differently than others about what to expect from Lucroy. All will value the fact that he has been one of only four catchers to top three thousand plate appearances since the start of 2012 (and one of only three to post more than twenty WAR in that span). He seems clearly worthy of being awarded a regular job, but guessing at an earning range is more difficult. And that depends, too, on market factors.
Obviously there’s reason to expect that the Rockies could be interested in a return. The team has indicated satisfaction with Lucroy’s work and could use him just as much next year as this, though there are also internal options to be considered. Lucroy himself has made clear he’d welcome a chance to return. Beyond that, the possibilities are a bit more difficult to suss out. Few contenders have really clear needs behind the plate, though contending organizations such as the Diamondbacks, Angels, and perhaps Nationals could consider a move.
Other possible suitors could yet emerge. But Lucroy will face some competition. It helps that Kurt Suzuki has decided to remain with the Braves. But Welington Castillo is likely to decline his player option and Alex Avila will return to the open market. Chris Iannetta had a strong year, and he’s one of several solid veterans that may represent more cost-conscious options for organizations that prefer a timeshare at the position rather than paying more to land a heavily-used regular.
Recent comps are of limited utility, too. Big dollars have gone to Martin and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM), but as noted at the outset that seems highly unlikely here. Looking at other significant, multi-year deals, though, there’s a big gulf between those larger contracts and the three-year pacts signed by Jason Castro ($24.5MM) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($21MM). Lucroy has a strong argument to out-earn that pair, so it seems reasonable to anticipate at least a three-year arrangement with some possibility for a fourth.
Perhaps Francisco Cervelli‘s three-year, $31MM extension represents a more noteworthy marker in this case. It’s telling, too, that Matt Wieters was guaranteed $21MM over two years despite a clearly inferior record to that of Lucroy, perhaps further suggesting that Lucroy ought to command an eight-figure annual commitment. Ultimately, it’s easy to imagine pursuit by two or more determined organizations pushing up the guarantee past the Cervelli level. Demand is less than crystal clear, so there’s some downside risk here as well, though it helps that Lucroy will not be subject to a qualifying offer since he was dealt in the middle of the season. Regardless of how it all shakes out, two things are clear after Lucroy’s 2017 campaign: he won’t be paid like the top-flight player he was for the prior five seasons, but he’ll still earn a hefty commitment when he hits the open market for the first time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
West Notes: Athletics, Giants, Peacock, Hill, Rockies
The Athletics have a history of adding veteran starters to eat innings and serve as mentors within otherwise young rotations, and the team will again be looking to add such a pitcher this winter, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes in a look at the starting situations on both Bay Area teams. “You have to bring in the right guy in that situation. Not just any veteran or experienced guy can come in and play that role, so we’ll certainly survey the market and be opportunistic,” Oakland GM David Forst said. As for the Giants, they seem pretty set in the rotation, as they’re counting on better health and/or returns to form from Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore, with Ty Blach and Chris Stratton competing for the fifth starter’s job.
Here’s more from both the AL and NL West divisions….
- Improved health, a lower arm slot and an altered slider all led to Brad Peacock‘s breakout year, though as recently as this Spring Training, Peacock seemed a longshot to make the Astros roster or even stay in Major League Baseball, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes. “We thought we were going to Japan, honestly,” said Peacock’s wife Stephanie. Dan Straily‘s emergence in 2016 made the Astros hesitant about giving up on another arm, however, and Peacock found a roster spot when Collin McHugh began the year on the DL. The rest was history — over 132 innings as a starter and a reliever, Peacock posted a 3.00 ERA, 10.98 K/9 and 2.82 K/9 rate. He’ll make his first postseason appearance today as Houston’s starter in Game 3 of the ALDS.
- Rich Hill is no stranger to reinvention, and after the curveball that fueled his late-career revival began his fail him early this season, The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh illustrates how Hill moved away from his signature pitch. Hill began to utilize his fastball to great success, what the southpaw’s heater lacks in speed (89mph), it makes up for with excellent movement. Cutting back on the curveball usage also may have helped Hill avoid the blister problems that plagued him in 2016. The end result was another strong season for the Dodgers lefty, as Hill posted a 3.32 ERA with 11.01 K/9 over 135 2/3 innings.
- The Rockies have almost $54MM in payroll coming off the books this winter in the form of Carlos Gonzalez‘s salary and over $33MM in “dead money” paid to players no longer on the roster, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. Between that large sum and another $24MM being freed up by other impending free agents, Colorado has plenty of cash to spend this winter, though some of those funds could go towards re-signing some of those players, perhaps Greg Holland and Jonathan Lucroy. Saunders also wonders if the Rockies could look into extensions for Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu (free agents after 2018) or Nolan Arenado (after 2019).
Quick Hits: Phils, Tigers, Judge, Rockies, D-backs
Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond is drawing interest from two manager-needy teams, the Phillies and Tigers, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Redmond isn’t far removed from managing the Marlins, who went 155-207 on his watch from 2013-15. The former big league catcher played with the Marlins from 1998-2004, giving him familiarity with Tigers general manager Al Avila. The executive was in Miami’s front office for a portion of Redmond’s tenure as a player there.
More from around baseball:
- With the Indians and Yankees facing off in the American League Division Series, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com flashes back five years to a decision that has impacted both franchises. The Indians signed former Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher to a four-year, $56MM deal in December 2012, a move that didn’t pan out for Cleveland but did help lead to the Aaron Judge era in the Bronx. By letting Swisher walk in free agency, the Yankees earned a compensatory draft pick in 2013, the 32nd selection, with which they chose Judge. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland passed on Judge at No. 5 in the first round (the Indians grabbed a different now-Yankees outfielder in Clint Frazier, whom the Tribe traded in a 2016 deal for reliever Andrew Miller), though one member of the club’s scouting department was particularly enamored of the hulking slugger. “One of our scouts liked him over [No. 1 overall pick Mark] Appel, which is crazy to think about,” Indians president Chris Antonetti told Castrovince. “It’s not necessarily how we had him on our board, but one of our scouts felt strongly about it. There were some questions about his size, but he also did a lot of things really well, and he was renowned for having a great makeup.”
- There haven’t been any contract discussions between the Rockies and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez since spring training, according to Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post. The Rockies offered CarGo an extension back then, but he turned it down and proceeded to endure the worst season of his career. The 31-year-old impending free agent batted an uncharacteristically poor .262/.339/.423 in 534 plate appearances, but he did fare much better after the All-Star break (.314/.390/.531 in 207 PAs).
- The Diamondbacks won 93 games during the regular season and broke a five-year playoff drought, leading Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic to highlight some of the good work done by their past decision-makers. While first-year GM Mike Hazen is responsible for the J.D. Martinez, Ketel Marte, Daniel Descalso, Jeff Mathis, Taijuan Walker and Fernando Rodney acquisitions, among others, predecessors Josh Byrnes, Jerry Dipoto, Kevin Towers and Dave Stewart each have a hand in the current on-field product in Arizona – something Hazen realizes. “There are contributions all over the place,” he told Piecoro. “They should be proud of that, I think. We all know in the game things happen. Changes get made. For whatever reason, they get made. But it still doesn’t change the fact that there was good done, too.”
NL West Notes: Prieto, Holland, Seager, Giants
There won’t be any major penalties arising out of the investigation into Diamondbacks coach Ariel Prieto, who was spotted with an Apple Watch during the Wild Card game. The league announced that it has “forensically examined” the watch as well as Prieto’s cell phone, in addition to conducting an interview with the veteran baseball man. With no indication that he improperly used those devices, the league decided upon only undisclosed fines for both Prieto and the team. The funds will be donated to Puerto Rico for hurricane relief efforts.
Here’s more from the NL West:
- Greg Holland says he hasn’t yet thought at all about whether he’ll return to the Rockies, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. He is seemingly still unhappy with his appearance in the team’s Wild Card loss, which represented a disappointing end to an otherwise quality bounceback season. Holland didn’t quite max out his contract incentives — he needed to finish two more games to earn an extra $2MM — but did tack another $9MM on top of his $6MM base. His mutual option became a $15MM player option along the way, but the expectation remains that Holland will choose instead to enter the open market. While he wasn’t exactly back to his prior form as one of the game’s best relievers, Holland turned in 57 1/3 innings of 3.61 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 while pacing the NL with 41 saves. He’ll soon turn 32 and hasn’t regained his prior fastball velocity since his return from Tommy John surgery, but Holland did sustain an outstanding 15.2% swinging-strike rate on the year and ought to draw quite a lot of interest on the open market.
- As the Dodgers prepare for a tough NLDS challenge, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times looks at the difficult balancing act the team has faced with star shortstop Corey Seager. The club has sought to ensure he doesn’t overwork himself, particularly (but not exclusively) since an elbow issue cropped up. But the youngster says he “like[s] to work” and has not always seen eye to eye with the organization on the matter. You’ll want to read the entire story, which conveys and explores the tension surrounding the issue as the Dodgers look to convert their excellent regular season into postseason glory.
- Giants president of baseball operations Brian Sabean discusses some of the organization’s young players with Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area on his podcast. It’s an interesting chat for fans that wish to understand how the top brass sees the farm and player development. The veteran executive also touches upon the team’s increasing incorporation of sabermetrics.
How They Were Acquired: Colorado Rockies Wild Card Roster
Entering the 2016-17 offseason, the Rockies were viewed by many as an organization that could position itself for contention with the right moves. While the club’s biggest splash (the signing of Ian Desmond) hasn’t really panned out thus far, the addition of closer Greg Holland surely did, helping lead the club to an 87-win regular season.
Of course, the bulk of the talent on hand in Colorado wasn’t just added last winter. The team’s two best players — Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado — are homegrown stars. Most of the other regulars have been around for some time and the rotation has largely come through the farm system. More recently, the Rox took advantage of the summer trade market to add two important pieces in catcher Jonathan Lucroy and reliever Pat Neshek. Here’s how the Rockies’ Wild Card roster was compiled by the front office, which is currently led by GM Jeff Bridich …
[Related: Colorado Rockies Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]
- HOMEGROWN (11)
- Charlie Blackmon, CF: Drafted 2nd Rd ’08
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: Drafted 2nd Rd ’09
- Raimel Tapia, OF: International Free Agent (D.R.) November ’10
- Tyler Anderson, SP: Drafted 1st Rd (20) ’11
- Trevor Story, SS: Drafted 1st Rd (45) ’11
- Antonio Senzatela, SP/RP: International Free Agent (Venezuela) July ’11
- Carlos Estevez, RP: International Free Agent (D.R.) May ’11
- Scott Oberg, RP: Drafted 15th Rd ’12
- Jon Gray, SP: Drafted 1st Rd (3) ’13
- Pat Valaika, INF/OF: Drafted 9th Rd ’13
- Mike Tauchman, OF: Drafted 10th Rd ’13
- ACQUIRED VIA FREE AGENCY (7)
- Mark Reynolds, 1B: December ’15 (STL) — Signed to a one-year, $2.6MM contract. Re-signed to MiLB contract in February ’17.
- Gerardo Parra, OF: January ’16 (BAL) — Signed to a three-year, $27.5MM contract (includes $12MM club option in 2019).
- Ian Desmond, INF/OF: December ’16 (TEX) — Signed to a five-year, $70MM contract (includes $15MM club option in 2022).
- Alexi Amarista, INF/OF: December ’16 (SD) — Signed to a one-year, $1.25MM contract (includes $2.5MM club option in 2018).
- Mike Dunn, RP: December ’16 (MIA) — Signed to a three-year, $19MM contract (includes $6MM club option in 2020).
- Greg Holland, RP: January ’17 (KC) — Signed to a one-year, $7MM contract (includes $15MM player option in 2018).
- Ryan Hanigan, C: March ’17 (PHI) — Signed to MiLB contract.
- ACQUIRED VIA TRADE (5)
- Carlos Gonzalez, OF: November ’08 (OAK) — Acquired in the trade that sent Matt Holliday to the Athletics.
- DJ LeMahieu, 2B: December ’11 (CHC) — Acquired in the trade that sent Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers to the Cubs.
- Jake McGee, RP: January ’16 (TB) — Acquired in the trade that sent Corey Dickerson to the Rays.
- Jonathan Lucroy, C: July ’17 (TEX) — Acquired in the trade that sent Pedro Gonzalez to the Rangers.
- Pat Neshek, RP: July ’17 (PHI) — Acquired in the trade that sent Jose Gomez, Alejandro Requena and J.D. Hammer to the Phillies.
- ACQUIRED VIA WAIVERS (2)
- Chris Rusin, RP: September ’14 (CHC)
- Tony Wolters, C: February ’16 (CLE)
The Rox will say goodbye to CarGo at the end of the year, along with Mark Reynolds, with Holland likely to decline his option and reenter the open market as well. But the team still has another year in which it can pair Blackmon and Arenado, retains most of its other key players, and can anticipate further strides from its youthful rotation. Plus, there are several intriguing prospects who may be ready to make full contributions at the game’s highest level as soon as 2018.
Who Will Win The World Series?
Aside from Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton‘s pursuit of 60 home runs, the final day of Major League Baseball’s regular season won’t bring much drama. Colorado on Saturday became the last team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot and will be one of 10 clubs vying for World Series glory over the next month-plus. Here’s a rundown of the participants by league and seeding:
National League
1.) Los Angeles Dodgers (record: 103-58; most recent title: 1988): The Dodgers are loaded with stars and depth, which explains how they easily exceeded the 100-win mark despite enduring a 1-15 stretch from Aug. 26 through Sept. 11. They recovered from that nightmarish 16-game showing over the season’s final couple weeks and once again look formidable entering the postseason. While the Dodgers have scored the second-fewest runs of this year’s playoff teams, they’ve still managed to pace all NL clubs in position player fWAR. Plus, with a Clayton Kershaw-fronted rotation and a Kenley Jansen-led bullpen, their staff is atop the NL in pitching fWAR.
2.) Washington Nationals (record: 97-64; most recent title: never): The Nationals cruised to an NL East crown this year despite losing center fielder Adam Eaton in April and having to go without arguably their best player, right fielder Bryce Harper, from mid-August until late September. Harper suffered a knee injury that looked like a season-ender when it happened, and while the missed time derailed his MVP chances, he’s back to lead a lineup that also includes other standouts in Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman. On the pitching side, it seems ace and Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer avoided a serious hamstring injury during his start on Saturday. If that’s the case, Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez could be the premier starting trio in the playoffs. They’ll hand off to a bullpen that has featured offered plenty of shaky performances in 2017, though midseason additions Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler have helped stabilize the Nationals’ relief corps.
3.) Chicago Cubs (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2016): At this time a year ago, Chicago was putting the finishing touches on a 103-win regular season and preparing to enter the playoffs as the odds-on favorite. Ultimately, the Cubs lived up to the billing last fall and broke a 108-year title drought in an unforgettable World Series against the Indians. They haven’t been as sharp this year, owing in part to worse performances from their pitching and defense, but are still laden with talent. There’s no shortage of quality position players on hand, including reigning MVP Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, but the Cubs will need more from their staff – particularly Jake Arrieta, who’s dealing with a hamstring issue right now, and Jon Lester.
4.) Arizona Diamondbacks (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2001): One of this year’s surprise teams, the Diamondbacks rode an underrated starting staff and a top 10 offense (by runs scored) to a playoff berth. Starters Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin and Taijuan Walker have all turned in good to great seasons, which is why the D-backs’ starters lead the NL in fWAR. They also have a pair of offensive superstars in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though he had a horrid September that likely ruined his MVP chances, and outfielder J.D. Martinez. The latter has been a revelation since coming over from the Tigers in a July trade, having smashed 29 home runs in 61 games and batted .304/.369/.746 in 255 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a potential Achilles’ heel, no playoff entrant has a worse wRC+ (84) against left-handed pitchers than Arizona. That doesn’t seem to bode well for a team that will face the Dodgers, whose southpaws include Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson, if it wins the NL wild-card game.
5.) Colorado Rockies (record: 87-74; most recent title: never): Primarily on account of NL MVP candidates Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies are near the top of the league in runs scored, which is what you’d expect from a team that plays half its games at Coors Field. The Rockies managed to break a seven-year playoff skid this season largely because of an improved pitching staff that sits eighth in the majors in fWAR. Still, despite the presence of Jon Gray, their rotation doesn’t look particularly imposing relative to other playoff teams’ staffs. They do, however, feature a few highly capable relievers in Greg Holland, Chris Rusin, Pat Neshek and Jake McGee.
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the NL?
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Dodgers 35% (5,225)
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Cubs 24% (3,648)
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Nationals 24% (3,583)
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Diamondbacks 14% (2,132)
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Rockies 3% (515)
Total votes: 15,103
American League
1.) Cleveland Indians (record: 101-60; most recent title: 1948): At 48-45, the reigning AL champions were a mere three games above .500 on July 18. Since then, they’ve run roughshod over the rest of the league en route to a 53-15 mark, including a historic 22-game winning streak from Aug. 22 to Sept. 14. The Indians lost a meaningless game to the White Sox on Saturday, but that was just their fourth defeat in the past 35 contests. Needless to say, they’re heading into the playoffs on a roll. As you’d expect, Cleveland’s roster is chock-full of excellence. MVP hopeful Jose Ramirez and all-world shortstop Francisco Lindor are at the helm of a talent-rich offense, one that supports what could be an all-time great pitching staff from top to bottom. Ace/Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, righty Carlos Carrasco and super reliever Andrew Miller, one of the faces of last year’s postseason, deservedly grab the most headlines, but good luck finding any weak links among the other pitchers the Tribe will use in the playoffs.
2.) Houston Astros (record: 100-61; most recent title: never): With a league-high 892 runs and a 121 wRC+, it’s a wonder how anyone gets the Astros out. Much of the damage has come from AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, the latter of whom missed significant time earlier this season, but ancillary pieces such as Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel have all been no worse than very good at the plate. And then there’s the one-two pitching punch of recently acquired ace Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, not to mention a deep starting staff/bullpen behind them. If there’s one big concern here, it’s that Houston may be the worst defensive team in the playoffs.
3.) Boston Red Sox (record: 93-68; most recent title: 2013): This year’s Red Sox have deviated from past Boston teams that used the likes of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez to pound opponents into submission. In fact, this is the first playoff-bound Red Sox club since 1995 to qualify for the postseason without scoring at least 800 runs. Nevertheless, they have several especially well-rounded position players (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi and the banged-up Dustin Pedroia, to name a few) who have done enough in the field to make Boston an elite defensive outfit. That defense supports the AL’s foremost southpaw, Chris Sale, and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. Boston is entering the playoffs with some concerns in its rotation, though, including the recent struggles of Sale and the yearlong issues 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has had. Fortunately for the Sox, starter Drew Pomeranz quelled some late-season concerns with an encouraging start against the Astros on Saturday.
4.) New York Yankees (record: 90-71; most recent title: 2009): Baby Bombers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez have more than lived up to the hype this season, combining for 85 home runs and 11.7 fWAR in 1,203 PAs. Fifty-one of those long balls have come from Judge, an OPS machine and an AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in whose 8.2 fWAR leads the majors. The rest of the Yankees’ offense isn’t exactly subpar, either, as a laundry list of their other hitters have notched above-average seasons at the plate. And New York’s pitching staff could be built for October, with an incredibly strong bullpen and a rotation that features perhaps the AL’s third-best starter, Luis Severino. One of the major questions regarding the Yankees is which versions of Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka will show up in the postseason – if the team gets by the wild-card game, that is. Gray allowed between four and six earned runs in three of five September starts, while Tanaka was a mixed bag throughout the regular season. He did conclude the slate with a seven-inning, 15-K shutout against the Blue Jays on Friday, though.
5.) Minnesota Twins (record: 84-77; most recent title: 1991): In terms of teams, there probably hasn’t been a better story during the regular season than the Twins, who were 103-game losers and owners of the majors’ worst record a year ago. Adding to the improbability of their Cinderella run to the playoffs, the Twins were sellers at this year’s trade deadline, when they dealt starter Jaime Garcia to their wild-card opponent, the Yankees, and Kintzler to the Nationals. However, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer & Co. were undeterred in the face of those deals and the late-summer absence of slugging third baseman Miguel Sano, who missed over a month with a left shin injury but just returned this week. Given its relatively underwhelming pitching staff, Minnesota is obviously a long shot to claim its first World Series in 26 years. For now, the Twins are focused on the Yankees, who have historically owned Minnesota in the playoffs. But New York’s past triumphs came during series. The wild-card round is a one-off, increasing the odds of an upset. The Twins’ No. 1 starter, Ervin Santana, allowed two or fewer runs in 20 of 33 starts during the regular season. If he’s that stingy against the Yankees on Tuesday – an admittedly tall order – an upset could be in the offing.
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the AL?
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Indians 47% (7,512)
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Astros 24% (3,841)
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Yankees 15% (2,428)
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Red Sox 9% (1,391)
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Twins 5% (762)
Total votes: 15,934
And now for the most important question (poll link for app users)…
Who will win the World Series?
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Indians 35% (4,899)
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Dodgers 15% (2,081)
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Astros 12% (1,645)
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Cubs 11% (1,611)
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Yankees 10% (1,458)
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Red Sox 5% (741)
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Nationals 5% (658)
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Twins 3% (403)
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Diamondbacks 3% (401)
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Rockies 1% (157)
Total votes: 14,054
Cafardo’s Latest: Mondesi, Vazquez, Lucroy, Miley
Here are the highlights from Nick Cafardo’s latest column with the Boston Globe:
- In this year’s Arizona Fall League, MLB could consider using earpieces allowing direct communication between managers, pitchers and catchers, Cafardo writes. Such a move would be designed to help prevent sign-stealing, while also improving the pace of the game by reducing mound conferences.
- Cafardo notes the strange story developing in the Dominican Republic, where Raul Mondesi — the longtime big-league outfielder and father of the Royals infielder of the same name — has been sentenced to eight years in prison after being convicted of embezzling over $6MM from the city of San Cristobal during his time as mayor there. Mondesi had been involved in Dominican politics since the end of his big-league career in 2005.
- The Red Sox acknowledge that catcher is a “two-man position,” although manager John Farrell thinks Christian Vazquez could take 110 to 120 starts next year. That means Sandy Leon could lose playing time. Vazquez has batted .298/.336/.420 this season, including .336/.376/.493 in the second half. Leon hasn’t had a good season and is eligible for arbitration this winter, although it seems very likely, from my perspective, that the Red Sox will bring him back — Blake Swihart has struggled at Triple-A, and Leon is a strong framer who works well with pitchers, including ace Chris Sale.
- After playing under an extremely team-friendly contract for the last six seasons, Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy is heading into free agency on a down note, having batted just .258/.328/.353 this season (although it’s perhaps worth noting he’s posted a .390 OBP since heading to Denver in late July). Still, Lucroy is only 31 and will likely get a multi-year deal, given his track record and his reputation for terrific work behind the plate. “He’s a solid receiver and he handles a pitching staff well. Those are the two most important things,” a scout tells Cafardo. “The offense is baffling because he’s always been one of the best at his position. You have to take the leap that part will come back.”
- The Royals could attempt to keep free-agent-to-be Lorenzo Cain this winter, Cafardo writes. At last check, it seemed unlikely the Royals could keep Cain. As Cafardo notes, Cain will turn 32 shortly after the start of the 2018 season. It’s unclear how the significant contract that will likely be required to retain Cain would fit into the Royals’ plans.
- The Orioles aren’t likely to exercise lefty Wade Miley‘s $12MM option, Cafardo writes. That means they’d pay him a $500K buyout. It’s unclear to what extent Cafardo is reporting on Miley’s status based on sources from within Miley’s camp or the Orioles organization, but either way, it does seem likely the Orioles will go in another direction — Miley has posted a 5.52 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in what’s been a very rough 2017 season.
NL Notes: Hutchison, Plawecki, Chatwood, Lamb
Following this weekend’s outright of Drew Hutchison, Pirates GM Neal Huntington spoke to Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the decision to move on from the right-hander, who is now very likely to become a free agent at season’s end. While Hutchison was the lone return the Pirates received in exchange for dumping Francisco Liriano‘s contract and sending two prospects to the Blue Jays, Huntington indicated that he’s been passed on the depth chart by other arms. “We traded for him with the idea that he was a controllable, young starter that could fill a rotation spot for years to come,” said Huntington. “We just also decided this year that the growth and development of our guys put them ahead of him.” The Pirates have relied heavily upon Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault and Tyler Glasnow to make starts behind Gerrit Cole, Ivan Nova and Jameson Taillon this season. With Hutchison eligible for arbitration this winter, the lack of room in the rotation makes his removal from the 40-man roster is essentially the same as non-tendering him several months in advance.
A bit more from the NL…
- Kevin Plawecki‘s improved play in Triple-A made the Mets feel comfortable letting Rene Rivera go on a waiver claim to the Cubs last month, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post, and his solid production in the Majors now leaves him feeling less concerned about losing his roster spot. The 26-year-old admitted to pressing too much in the past to “try to make some things happen” but said he’s in a different mental state this time around. “[W]hat has been different this time is just trusting what I have been doing all season [in Triple-A] and not having that thought in the back of my head, ‘How long am I going to be here and how big of a window do I have to prove myself?’” Mets GM Sandy Alderson has previously suggested that the Mets are unlikely to pursue catching upgrades this winter, meaning Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud figure to play prominent roles with the 2018 club. Since being recalled from Triple-A, Plawecki is hitting .283/.387/.482 in 17 games.
- Right-hander Tyler Chatwood tells Nick Groke of the Denver Post that he wasn’t pleased when the Rockies demoted him to a relief role earlier this summer, but he used the frustration as motivation to reclaim his rotation spot. The 27-year-old acknowledged that his mechanics had been off, specifically when it comes to his two-seam fastball — his best pitch. Chatwood made clear that he views himself as a starting pitcher, which is notable for an impending free agent that looks to be finishing the season strongly. He’s allowed one run in 13 2/3 innings since moving back into the rotation and has an overall 1.54 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 60 percent ground-ball rate over his past nine appearances (23 1/3 innings).
- Jake Lamb‘s struggles against left-handed pitching are beginning to cost him at-bats, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Lamb has only started four of the D-backs’ past 10 games against a southpaw, with trade pickup Adam Rosales garnering the other six starts at third base. Lamb’s troubles would be particularly problematic in a postseason series against the Dodgers, Piecoro points out, as Los Angeles could send lefties Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood to the mound in a short series. Lamb is hitting just .146/.271/.301 with a 34 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season. Speculatively speaking, it’s worth wondering if the D-backs would pursue a platoon partner this offseason as well, though a fully healthy Diamondbacks roster would also have more options to help out at third base.
West Notes: Rockies, D-backs, Rangers
Rockies outfielder/first baseman Ian Desmond has shown troubling signings in the first season of a five-year, $70MM contract, of MLB.com notes. Along with a .273/.319/.367 batting line that’s 35 percent worse than league average (per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric), Desmond’s groundball rate and exit velocity have trended in the wrong direction. His 63.1 percent grounder mark is nearly 12 percent worse than his yearly average and ranks last among hitters with at least 300 PAs. At the same time, Desmond’s exit velo has dropped from 90.5 mph last season to 87.4 mph this year. But health issues have likely contributed to Desmond’s drop-off, as the soon-to-be 32-year-old has been on the disabled list three different times. Indeed, Desmond told Randhawa that the injuries – including the fractured left hand he suffered in spring training – have made it difficult for him to establish himself this season. Based on his track record, Desmond expects to return to form. “Line drives and hard contact. For me, that’s my game,” Desmond said. “I’ve got to utilize my speed, and I think there’s complete validity in hitting the ball in the air and launch angle and all that stuff, but at the same time, my swing and the results I’ve been able to produce over the years is plenty for me. And I think that game plays anywhere. The thing is just a matter of getting the swings off and timing.”
More from the majors’ West divisions:
- The Diamondbacks are pleased with the progress shortstop Ketel Marte has made in his first year with the organization, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Since the Diamondbacks acquired him from the Mariners last winter in a blockbuster trade that also included Jean Segura, Taijuan Walker and Mitch Haniger, Marte has made plate discipline and defensive improvements, Piecoro points out. The 23-year-old is running a 10.7 percent walk rate, up from 3.9 percent in 2016, and has hit a playable .271/.350/.409 in 206 plate appearances (compared to .259/.287/.323 in 466 PAs last season). And after receiving negative marks as a defender a year ago (minus-two defensive runs saved, minus-10.3 Ultimate Zone Rating), Marte has been respectable in the field for the D-backs (five DRS, 0.3 UZR). “He’s done a great job, especially given that we’re in a pennant chase,” general manager Mike Hazen told Piecoro. “He’s handled the position, locked it down after we lost both guys (Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings) to injury in the middle of the year.”
- The bounce-back year Delino DeShields has enjoyed this season could put him in line for a starting spot in the Rangers’ outfield in 2018, per T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. DeShields impressed as a Rule 5 pick in his rookie year, 2015, but plummeted to earth last season. He has returned in 2017 to bat a solid .280/.352/.383 with 28 stolen bases in 388 plate appearances. The Rangers have also been impressed with the speedster’s work in center filling in for the injured Carlos Gomez, with manager Jeff Banister saying: “It starts with ownership of playing center field. If you watch, I see things between pitches, he’s moving the left fielder over because he’s moving, or he’s moving the right fielder toward the foul line because of what he is seeing. It starts with that preparation. You are the leader, you are the quarterback.” With Gomez scheduled to hit free agency over the winter, DeShields could take over center for good next season.