Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League/International Signings
- Jorge de la Rosa, SP: three years, $32MM. Third year (2013) is an $11MM player option which if exercised gives Rockies $11MM club option for 2014.
- Ty Wigginton, IF: two years, $8MM. Includes $4MM option for 2013 with a $500K buyout.
- Total spend: $40MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Jason Giambi, John Maine, Chris Sampson, Billy Buckner, Eric Stults, Claudio Vargas, Sean White, Chad Moeller, Alfredo Amezaga, Hernan Iribarren, Mike Jacobs, Willy Taveras, Matt Pagnozzi, Eric Duncan, Jeff Salazar, Tug Hulett, Jesus Colome
Extensions
- Troy Tulowitzki, SS: seven years, $134MM in new guaranteed money. Includes $15MM club option for 2021 with a $4MM buyout.
- Carlos Gonzalez, LF: seven years, $80MM.
- Matt Lindstrom, RP: two years, $6.6MM. $4MM club option for 2013 with a $200K buyout.
- Jason Hammel, SP: two years, $7.75MM.
- Rafael Betancourt, RP: one year, $4.25MM. Includes $4.25MM mutual option for 2013 with a $250K buyout.
- Matt Belisle, RP: two years, $6.125MM.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired P Felipe Paulino from Astros for IF Clint Barmes
- Acquired IF Jose Lopez from Mariners for SP Chaz Roe
- Acquired C Jose Morales from Twins for RP Paul Bargas
- Acquired RP Matt Lindstrom from Astros for RP Jonnathan Aristil and SP Wes Musick
- Acquired SP Clayton Mortensen from Athletics for SP Ethan Hollingsworth
Notable Losses
- Miguel Olivo, Clint Barmes, Melvin Mora, Jeff Francis, Manny Corpas, Joe Beimel, Octavio Dotel, Chaz Roe, Paul Bargas, Jonnathan Aristil, Wes Musick, Ethan Hollingsworth
Summary
Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd is all about locking up his own players, despite mixed results. The initial contracts for Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez were masterstrokes, while extra years and dollars guaranteed to Huston Street, Chris Iannetta, and Aaron Cook have been regrettable. Six Rockies were extended this winter, headlined by Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.
The Tulo and CarGo extensions were very different situations, and I analyzed them here and here. Both players were already under control through 2014, so O'Dowd is planning four years into the future with these deals. He's gambled $167MM on nine player seasons for the pair from the year 2015 forward. Whether these players age well is anyone's guess, but the contracts carry big risk and big potential reward. It's not often we see a GM looking so far ahead.
The Rockies established cost certainty with the extensions for arbitration eligible pitchers Lindstrom and Hammel, though the safe move would have been going year-to-year. The Rockies bought out a couple of free agent years at reasonable rates for Betancourt and Belisle after deciding not to offer a third year to free agent Matt Guerrier.
The Rockies made a pair of free agent commitments, retaining De La Rosa (pictured) and bringing in Wigginton. On one hand, the De La Rosa contract was a win in that the Rockies didn't have to commit to a fourth year for a guy who's never topped 185 innings and posts ugly walk rates. On the other, player options often ensure that the player re-enters the free agent market if he has a strong final season and stays put if he's not worth his option price. I felt that the Rockies overpaid for Wigginton's versatility in an offseason where Eric Hinske signed for one year and $1.35MM.
On the trade front, I love the acquistion of Paulino for Barmes. Barmes seemed headed for a non-tender, while Paulino's big strikeout rate and velocity qualify him as a sleeper. The Rockies acquired a non-tender candidate of their own in Lopez, though $3.6MM isn't a bad gamble. The price to acquire Lindstrom was reasonable as well.
The 2011 Rockies look like an improved team, if De La Rosa, Hammel, and Jhoulys Chacin are able to provide full seasons in support of Jimenez. Even if not, the bullpen looks deeper given the addition of Lindstrom and assuming good health for Street. But this offseason was about much more than 2011, as O'Dowd invested heavily in the futures of Tulowitzki and Gonzalez.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Eric Young Jr. Could Attract Trade Interest
There are at least a few scouts on hand to watch Eric Young Jr. and with the Rockies' depth at second base, the 25-year-old could attract trade interest, tweets Troy Renck of The Denver Post. There's presently no indication that the club is looking to move Young, Renck tweets, but things can change.
Young, who has also seen time in the outfield, would be an inexpensive addition to any club as he won't be arbitration-eligible until after the 2012 season. The light-hitting second baseman hit just .244 /.312/.285 in 51 games this season though he has shown better hitting ability at the Triple-A level (.787 OPS).
Quick Hits: Chipper, Nix, Trout, Rockies
Here's a potpourri of news items as we head into the weekend…
- Chipper Jones talks to MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince about his recovery from knee surgery and his future in baseball. Jones was thinking of retirement last summer before, as Castrovince writes, "he started to hit like Chipper Jones again….And where the knee injury might have been the straw that broke the camel's back in June, in August, it served as a motivating factor to keep going."
- Laynce Nix has the been the subject of trade rumors, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Nix has a .251/.293/.445 career slash line against right-handed pitching and the Astros are reportedly in the market for a left-handed bench bat. Nix is currently in the Nationals' Spring Training camp on a minor league contract.
- Star prospect Mike Trout is turning heads at the Angels' Spring Training camp, reports MLB.com's Lyle Spencer.
- The Rockies will look internally to replace the injured Aaron Cook, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Already suffering from shoulder inflammation, Cook will be out until at least May due to a broken finger on his throwing hand.
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times looks at the Rangers' offseason and how the team had a more-than-adequate "plan B" (Adrian Beltre) in mind when they failed to re-sign Cliff Lee.
- Jake Odorizzi might end up being the most important piece of the trade package the Royals received for Zack Greinke, says MLB.com's Dick Kaegel.
- Mariners manager Eric Wedge has brought a number of former Indians coaches and players with him to Seattle, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
- Brandon Wood has struggled this spring, while Mark Trumbo has had a big camp for the Angels. Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com thinks Trumbo's emergence means that the out-of-options Wood's "days in an Angels uniform appear to be numbered."
- It was almost a year ago that Red Sox prospect Ryan Westmoreland underwent life-threatening brain surgery. Today, MLB.com's Evan Drellich writes that "doctors have already been amazed at the speed of his recovery" as Westmoreland is trying hard to regain both his basic motor skills and his baseball abilities.
Rockies Release Chad Moeller
The Rockies have released catcher Chad Moeller, reports Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post (as tweeted by his Post colleague Troy Renck). According to the club's official Twitter feed, the move was made so Moeller "can seek more playing time with another team."
Moeller, 36, signed a minor league deal with Colorado in January. The 11-year veteran has also played for the Twins, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, and Orioles in his career, plus two stints with the Yankees, including nine games with the Bombers last season.
Moeller has never provided much pop (a .640 career OPS) but it wouldn't be a surprise seeing him sign with another team that is in need of an experienced catcher. Two clubs in the last week alone have had vacancies open up behind the plate — the Astros (in the wake of Jason Castro's season-ending injury) and the Padres (now that Gregg Zaun has retired).
Quick Hits: Maine, Lerner, Foltynewicz
A few stray items of note coming out of the National League as Thursday winds down …
- Rockies right-hander John Maine can opt out of his contract with Colorado if he's not on the 25-man roster on June 1, tweets Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post. Maine, who signed a minor league deal with the Rox this offseason, has missed the better part of each of the past two seasons with the Mets due to right arm trouble.
- The Nationals grabbed headlines this offseason by signing Jayson Werth to a hefty $126MM contract, and though it was widely regarded as a questionable baseball decision, owner Ted Lerner has no shortage of cash, writes Kevin Kaduk of Yahoo! Sports. Lerner, as Kaduk explains, ranks No. 376 on Forbes' list of wealthiest people in the world, and is presently the wealthiest majority owner in baseball.
- Astros pitching prospect Mike Foltynewicz is looking to build upon the strong professional debut he made in 2010, writes Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner. Astros assistant GM/director of scouting Bobby Heck said that the right-hander probably has the highest ceiling of any Astros minor leaguer. Interestingly, Foltynewicz told Goff that he probably would have gone to the Red Sox at No. 20 overall in last year's First-Year Player Draft had the Astros not nabbed him at No. 19.
Heyman on Carlos Gonzalez’s Extension
Carlos Gonzalez's extension with the Rockies is the subject of Jon Heyman's latest feature at SI.com, here are the highlights.
- The Rockies' offer of a seven-year, $80MM extension was probably less than Gonzalez could have earned between arbitration and potential free agency several years down the road, writes Heyman, but Gonzalez accepted it anyway.
- Gonzalez, who grew up poor in Venezuela, is exceptionally mature and humble for his age, according to Heyman, and rather than chase top dollar, he preferred the security of the long-term deal with a team that's he comfortable with.
- Gonzalez had the full support of his agent, Scott Boras, whose clients typically go to free agency rather than signing extensions. Boras provided Gonzalez with the information indicating that Gonzalez could probably make more money if he waited till free agency.
- Boras praised Gonzalez for handling and analyzing the information, noting that Gonzalez turned down three or four offers before accepting the one that he did.
- Turning down top dollar is not new for Gonzalez, however. He accepted a $150K bonus as a 16-year-old international free agent when he could have demanded as much as $1MM, writes Heyman.
- Gonzalez is a close friend of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who also signed a long-term extension with Colorado this offseason. Tulowitzki said part of the reason he signed his extension is because Gonzalez had told him that he wanted to sign long-term, too.
Quick Hits: Rockies, Pagan, Phillies
Links for Tuesday, as fans receive good news on Justin Morneau and concerning news on Carlos Beltran…
- Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post looks at the five-man battle to serve as Chris Iannetta's backup catcher for the Rockies. My speculation: if the job goes to Matt Pagnozzi, perhaps Jose Morales and Chad Moeller would become available.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post tries to determine whether Angel Pagan is a long-term solution for the Mets in center field. Pagan, 29, is under team control through 2012 as an arbitration eligible player.
- The Phillies lost the payroll flexibility to acquire injury replacements earning more than the minimum by signing Cliff Lee, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in a notes column.
- Rosenthal offers more thoughts on the Orioles' direction in a Q&A with Matt Vensel of the Baltimore Sun. Click here to read my review of the team's offseason.
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick looks at the culture change new GM Kevin Towers has engineered for the Diamondbacks.
Analyzing CarGo’s Contract
In January, the Rockies accomplished a feat thought to be impossible: they locked up Carlos Gonzalez, who is represented by Scott Boras. Despite Boras providing CarGo with "actuary tables that would show Gonzalez's earning power if he would stay healthy and productive," the Rockies were able to buy out three free agent seasons at less than $18MM per year.
Gonzalez's seven-year, $80MM deal set a record for the largest deal signed by a player with between two and three years service time. The contract topped Hanley Ramirez's six-year, $70MM contract, signed nearly three years ago. Other recent deals for two-plus players include Justin Upton's six-year, $51.25MM contract and Jay Bruce's six-year, $51MM pact. A few details on the four contracts:
- Gonzalez is paid $23MM for his three arbitration years plus $53MM over the course of three free agent seasons ($17.67MM per). There are no option years, so CarGo could reach free agency at age 32 and score one more huge deal.
- Ramirez gets $23.5MM for his three arbitration years and plus $46.5MM over three free agent seasons ($15.5MM per). His deal also has no options, and he can reach free agency at age 30.
- Upton will earn $20.75MM for his three arbitration years plus $28.75MM over two free agent seasons ($14.375MM per). The deal has no options, and he can be a free agent at age 28.
- Bruce will make $25.25MM over four arbitration years plus $25.5MM guaranteed over two free agent seasons ($12.75MM per). In the likely event Bruce's 2017 club option is exercised, that's $37.5MM over three free agent seasons or $12.5MM per. If the option is exercised he'll reach free agency at age 30.
CarGo essentially matches Ramirez's arbitration earnings and tops his free agent take by a total of $6.5MM. In one sense Boras deserves credit for brokering the largest deal ever for a two-plus player, but in another Hanley's agents at WMG win since their deal came almost three years earlier.
Though the Rockies paid top dollar to do Gonzalez's extension now, the savings could still be significant. Further along in their careers, Ryan Howard and Joey Votto required $44MM and $38MM for their three arbitration years, respectively. Howard later gave up five free agent seasons at $25MM each, so paying CarGo $16MM in 2015 could be a downright bargain if he remains an elite player.
For my take on the Rockies' other huge extension, the Troy Tulowitzki contract, click here.
Evaluating Tulowitzki’s Extension
Troy Tulowitzki's first extension with the Rockies, a six-year, $31MM deal signed three years ago, set a precedent at the time as the largest deal ever for a player with less than two years of Major League service time. Tulowitzki had one full big league season under his belt, but the Rockies guaranteed $17.25MM for his three arbitration years and $10MM for a far-off free agent season, with a club option at $15MM for an additional free agent year. Even with Tulo's lack of service time, the risk in total dollars was minimal.
With the Rockies' first bet on Tulowitzki looking prescient, a few months ago they made another wager about four times the size by guaranteeing their shortstop's 2014 option year (plus an extra million bucks) and adding $118MM for the 2015-20 seasons. The popular question was, why now? Tulowitzki was already under team control through '14. Wouldn't the safe move be to wait at least a few more years?
The answer is that the Rockies likely feared that the price to retain Tulowitzki for his age 30-35 seasons would increase drastically with each additional MVP-caliber season. With the new money totaling $119MM over six years, that's $19.83MM per year. The cost of Tulowitzki's age 30-35 seasons falls between the salaries of newly-signed free agent outfielders Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford, but they're poor comparables. Premium all-around up-the-middle players almost never reach free agency, with only Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter, and Miguel Tejada coming to mind in recent years. With such a tiny sample of similar free agents, not to mention economic uncertainty, I can't use a formula to predict what Tulowitzki might have gotten as a free agent in 2015.
Still, it's easy to look at the player Tulowitzki is now and imagine him getting a $200MM+ contract on the open market in four years, given inflation and the rarity of elite shortstops. Since 2000, only Tulowitzki, A-Rod, Brian McCann, Grady Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez, and Joe Mauer posted a pair of 130 OPS+ seasons at age 25 or younger while playing up the middle. Take the sample back to the 90s and we add Mike Piazza, Ken Griffey Jr., and Nomar Garciaparra.
This is where I start to worry about the Rockies' gamble. Sizemore, Griffey, Nomar – in their mid-20s it sure looked like they'd still be premium players at age 30-35. Fans might have responded positively to Tulo-style extensions, unable to imagine worst case scenarios. But Griffey and Nomar saw that slice of their careers destroyed by injuries, and Sizemore currently has something to prove at age 28. Tulowitzki has already missed significant time with a broken wrist and a quad tear in his young career, but he came back strong in both cases.
To their credit, the Rockies built in slight protection by dropping Tulowitzki's base salary down to $14MM in 2020, his final guaranteed season. Performance decline isn't the main concern – even as just a good player, Tulo's contract won't look bad in his early 30s. The greater worry is that injuries will take over at that stage, perhaps due to the extra wear and tear of playing an up-the-middle position.
Quick Hits: Overbay, Accardo, Diamond, Astros
Links for Sunday, as Opening Day inches a little closer….
- Ken Fidlin of The Toronto Sun spoke to Lyle Overbay, who said several teams showed interest in him this offseason, but "Pittsburgh was real aggressive." Overbay joined the Pirates on a one-year deal worth $5MM.
- Jeremy Accardo told Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun that the Orioles made it obvious how highly they valued him when they pursued him this offseason. "I'm happy to get a new, fresh start, a fresh look, a fresh mindset," said Accardo. "I think I stumbled into something pretty special here."
- The Twins are high on Scott Diamond, their Rule V Draft pick, and could swing a trade with the Braves to keep Diamond but send him to Triple-A, tweets Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
- Jordan Lyles could win the Astros' fifth starter job out of Spring Training, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. Lyles, just 20 years old, was selected 38th in the 2008 draft — a supplemental pick for losing Trever Miller to free agency. His main competition includes Nelson Figueroa and Ryan Rowland-Smith.
- Jason Giambi may have been joking when he informed Troy Renck of the Denver Post that he was going to try to stick around until teammate Troy Tulowitzki's contract expires in 2020. However, Giambi told SI.com's Jon Heyman that he does plan to play for as long as he can (Twitter links).
- After his two-year extension with the White Sox was announced, Matt Thornton spoke about the deal and expressed a desire to finish his career in Chicago. Scott Reifert has the details and quotes at MLB.com.
- In his latest Indians mailbag, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer discusses the signings of Orlando Cabrera and Chad Durbin, as well as the possibility of a Fausto Carmona trade.
- One of the minor leaguers the Marlins acquired in last summer's Jorge Cantu trade saw his first game action today since returning from Tommy John surgery, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.