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Dominic Smith

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Latest On Dominic Smith

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Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith entered the winter looking like a prime trade candidate, but nothing has come together a few months since the team’s season ended. Perhaps Smith could still end up on the move in the coming weeks, but he’s not part of any “active trade talks” right now, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

A former top-100 prospect, Smith was a letdown at the major league level from 2017-18, but his production trended in the right direction last season. The 24-year-old slashed an impressive .282/.355/.525 with 11 home runs over 197 plate appearances. He dealt with injuries, though, and came up short in the Statcast category, evidenced by a .327 expected weighted on-base average that fell 41 points shy of his actual wOBA of .368.

Defensively, most of Smith’s action last year came in the corner outfield, but the team’s overrun by options in that area. Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis and the returning Yoenis Cespedes are all capable of playing there. While Smith’s more of a first baseman, good luck finding at-bats in that spot with NL Rookie of the Year winner Pete Alonso holding it down.

The Mets added lefty-hitting first baseman Matt Adams on a minors contract Friday, so he might serve as a fallback option if they do trade Smith. However, with the offseason winding down, a deal could be hard to come by for the club, as some of the teams that had the worst first base situations in the game last year have addressed the position since then (the Tigers signed C.J. Cron and the Marlins added Jesus Aguilar, to name two examples).

Speculatively, clubs like the Rangers, Royals and Orioles could still make sense for Smith, though it’s unknown whether they’ve shown interest in him. It’s also no sure thing the Mets even want to give Smith up, as Tim Healey of Newsday tweets that they’ve not “felt compelled to move him.” Even if New York’s loaded with other possibilities at Smith’s positions, the fact that he’s cheap, controllable depth surely appeals to the team. Smith’s not scheduled to reach arbitration for another year, and he’ll be eligible to go through the process four times.

Trade Candidate: Dominic Smith

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Plenty went wrong for the Mets in 2019, their third straight season without a playoff berth, but the oft-maligned franchise nonetheless turned in a fairly respectable campaign. They got off the mat after an awful start to win 86 games, right-hander Jacob deGrom won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award, and slugging first baseman Pete Alonso burst on the scene to mash 53 home runs en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors. Aside from Alonso, there were other legitimately encouraging developments among the Mets’ position player group, including the performance of fellow first baseman Dominic Smith.

It appeared entering the season that Smith was teetering on the brink of irrelevance, even though he wasn’t far removed from his days as a touted prospect. The 11th overall pick of the Mets in 2013, Smith debuted in the majors in 2017 as one of the game’s 100 best farmhands, but he fell way short of the hype at the outset of his career.

From 2017-18, a 332-plate appearance span, the lefty-swinging Smith put up a dismal .210/.259/.406 batting line. Smith’s minus-1.0 fWAR in that time frame ranked dead last among all 79 Mets who racked up at-bats, and he also struggled badly at the Triple-A level during the latter of the two seasons. As a result, fans, media and maybe even the organization were down on Smith, though he came back in 2019 to produce far better results than the average major league hitter.

Alonso’s presence and injuries to Smith helped keep him from playing a full season, but he still impressed during an 89-game, 197-PA sample. Playing his age-24 season, Smith batted .282/.355/.525 (133 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a lofty .243 ISO. Plus, after combining for a 28.4 percent strikeout rate with a 5.4 percent walk rate during the prior two years, he made serious strides in those departments. Smith went down on strikes at a 22.3 percent clip and drew free passes 9.6 percent of the time. He also chased fewer pitches outside the zone, made more contact and was equally effective against southpaws (132 wRC+) and righties (133 wRC+), though his success versus same-handed pitchers came over a much smaller sample size.

While Smith did take real steps forward last season, it appears there was some good fortune involved. Smith finished the season with a .368 weighted on-base average, but his .327 xwOBA (via Statcast) didn’t measure up. Even if you’re unconcerned by that and regard Smith as someone who could be a long-term offensive linchpin, it’s up in the air whether he’ll play another game for the Mets. Consider: Alonso has first base on lockdown, there’s no designated hitter option in the NL, and although Smith did get most of his playing time last season in the corner outfield, he’s part of a logjam there for the Mets. Not only could Yoenis Cespedes come back after a couple injury-crushed seasons, but the corner OF-capable foursome of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis remains on hand. Those players’ presences could help push Smith to the trade block and out of Queens.

As mentioned, Smith’s coming off a season in which he made clear progress. He also has another pre-arbitration season left and isn’t on track to reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign. All of those factors should buoy Smith’s trade value, as should the dearth of high-end first basemen in free agency, yet he’s still not going to bring back any kind of haul. Smith’s position, his lack of a track record in the bigs and a lack of demand for first basemen have likely tamped down his appeal on the market. Ultimately, it seems possible New York will use Smith to get rid of one of its undesirable contracts (Jed Lowrie? Jeurys Familia?), as Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Mets and Rangers were in talks on such a deal. The Rangers still haven’t upgraded at first, where Ronald Guzman was a disaster in 2019, so they might remain interested in Smith. The Red Sox, Royals and Twins also make for a few debatable landing spots.

For now, Smith looks like one of the most logical trade candidates in baseball. However, if the Mets don’t receive an offer to their liking, they keep Smith as a bench player or stash him as depth in Triple-A ball. Smith still has a pair of minor league options left, but he seems overqualified for anything below the majors at this point. Regardless, it doesn’t appear Smith will be able to carve out a regular role for himself as a Met, so a trade could be the best move for his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Rumors: Rangers, Smith, Lowrie, Blue Jays, Frazier, Cubs

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The Athletics aren’t the only AL West team interested in Jed Lowrie’s services, as the Rangers have been in talks with the Mets about a deal that would send both Lowrie and Dominic Smith to the Lone Star State, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  However, “talks to this point have failed to progress” between the two clubs.  It’s fair to guess that Smith was the Rangers’ real target in these negotiations, as Smith would be the sweetener added to the deal in exchange for the Rangers assuming most or all of the remaining $12MM on Lowrie’s contract.  New York is reportedly trying to create payroll space by shopping high-priced names like Lowrie or Jeurys Familia to other teams.

Smith is perhaps a bit of a curious fit for the Rangers, given that Texas already has a plethora of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield types, and only just dealt from that surplus in sending Nomar Mazara to the White Sox.  Still, adding a 24-year-old with five seasons of control has obvious value for the Rangers, as Shin-Soo Choo’s contract is up after the 2020 campaign, and Ronald Guzman could become expendable in the event of Smith joining the roster.  While Lowrie missed virtually all of 2019 due to injury, he also offers more to Texas than just a salary dump if he’s able to stay healthy.  If Lowrie was able to recapture anything close to his 2017-18 form, he’d represent a good third base answer if the Rangers weren’t able to sign Josh Donaldson.

More trade talk as we near the end of the Winter Meetings…

  • Though the Blue Jays have been mostly linked to free agents this winter, the club is apparently being just as diligent on the trade front, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  In addition to Toronto’s known interest in Yankees southpaw J.A. Happ, the Jays have checked in with the Red Sox about David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr., and with the Pirates about right-hander Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove.  It doesn’t seem like any of these particular options are close, however, as Davidi notes that “the cost in both dollars and prospect capital remains too high” for Price, Bradley, and Happ.  The Jays and Pirates have been speculatively linked as trade partners since Ben Cherington recently went from Toronto’s front office to the GM chair in Pittsburgh, though this familiarity may not necessarily be a plus.  As Davidi puts it, Cherington “may think too similarly to his former colleagues for a deal to be struck.”
  • As the Pirates weigh a lot of interest in Adam Frazier, the Athletics are involved but perhaps no better than Pittsburgh’s third option as a trade partner, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports (Twitter link).  The left-handed hitting Frazier would be an ideal fit to help balance out Oakland’s heavily right-handed lineup, and would provide some experience to a young collection of second base candidates.  Frazier isn’t old himself (he is a few days away from his 28th birthday) and is still controllable through three years of arbitration eligibility.
  • While the Cubs are reportedly working hard towards swinging some (potentially major) trades, the possibility exists that the 2020 roster will look a lot like last year’s edition, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other media.  “The makings of a very good team is currently under control on our roster, with a chance to win a division.  And do that, and you have a chance to have a great October,” Epstein said, though “status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.”  It could be that the Cubs won’t become big players in the trade market until most or all of the top free agents have selected their new teams.  In the case of Kris Bryant, for example, “officials from two teams aggressively trying to fill third-base needs…said the Cubs were asking too much for Bryant to seriously consider him while other options remained available,” Wittenmyer writes.

Quick Hits: Pillar, Mets, White Sox

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Whether the Giants tender outfielder Kevin Pillar a contract during the offseason “will serve as a clear referendum on how married to the metrics Farhan Zaidi’s baseball operations group will be,” Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic writes (subscription required). The Giants’ Zaidi-led front office acquired Pillar from Toronto in April, though the club could move on from him within the next couple months if it decides he’ll be too pricey to keep. Pillar’s making an affordable $5.8MM this year, but he’ll earn an appreciable raise over that sum during his last trip to arbitration because of his counting stats (631 plate appearances, 21 home runs, 86 runs batted in, 81 runs, 13 stolen bases). Those are aesthetically pleasing numbers, which can’t be said of the .257/.284/.430 batting line or the 83 wRC+ Pillar has posted. And while the soon-to-be 31-year-old Pillar has rightly been regarded as a marvelous defender throughout his career, advanced metrics haven’t been that bullish on him the past couple seasons (zero DRS, plus-1.2 UZR between center and right this year).

Pillar realizes the new-school turn that baseball’s front offices have taken could spell doom for his tenure as a Giant. He told Baggarly he wants to stay in San Francisco, but he acknowledged that “my future’s kind of up in the air.” Baggarly’s piece is worth a full read for more quotes from Pillar, a couple of his teammates and manager Bruce Bochy in regards to the high impact they believe he has made as a Giant.

Checking in on a pair of other MLB clubs…

  • Mets first baseman/corner outfielder Dominic Smith will attempt to add center field to his list of positions next year, Tim Healey of Newsday relays. Smith, who has already slimmed down since he debuted in the majors in 2017, will spend the offseason getting in even better shape in order to become a viable option at the outfield’s most challenging spot. Whether Smith will play another game for the Mets after this season is in question, though, with Healey noting the 24-year-old could be a trade chip over the winter. NL Rookie of the Year shoo-in Pete Alonso occupies Smith’s primary position, first base, while the Mets count Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis (not to mention the injured Yoenis Cespedes) among their other corner outfield-capable players.
  • White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease’s season came to an early end when the club made him a late scratch from his scheduled start Thursday. Cease is dealing with a hamstring issue, one that will require an MRI on Friday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. The touted 23-year-old wrapped up his debut campaign with a 5.79 ERA/5.19 FIP, 9.99 K/9 and 4.32 BB/9 in 73 innings.
  • Righty Michael Kopech, another of the White Sox’s coveted young arms, didn’t pitch at all this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September. Now, though, the flamethrowing Kopech is anticipating what he hopes will be a normal spring training. “I am as ready I can be right now,” Kopech said (via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score). “I have done everything I can to prepare. It has been a long time coming. I am ready to go for next spring.” Kopech should have a shot to join the returning trio of Cease, breakout star Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in the White Sox’s season-opening rotation in 2020. 

Mets Notes: Cano, Diaz, Offseason, Smith

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It’s a hypothetical that Mets fans could be asking for years to come — what if the team didn’t make last December’s big blockbuster trade with the Mariners for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz?  Yahoo Sports’ Matt Ehalt looks at a potential alternate reality where the trade didn’t take place, which keeps Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Gerson Bautista, and prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn in the New York organization and also slightly dims Van Wagenen’s “win-now” push, which also means that Marcus Stroman isn’t acquired at the trade deadline (for pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson).  All other moves remain the same, which means that J.D. Davis and Wilson Ramos are still on the team, for instance.

The end result is a Mets roster that has a lot more young talent as its disposal as possible trade chips or roster reinforcements for 2020, plus a lot more financial flexibility without Cano or Diaz on the payroll.  McNeil is locked in as the everyday second baseman, while players like Davis and Pete Alonso still blossom as they did in the real world.  “In this alternate universe, the Mets enter the offseason in a much better position,” Ehalt writes, as while “this version of the Mets would win fewer games than the 80-plus games the Mets will win this year, but a few wins are irrelevant when neither season results in a postseason berth.”

Here’s more from Citi Field…

  • “Boldness won Brodie Van Wagenen the job of Mets general manager, and lost the season,” the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes in roundup of the Mets’ 2019 campaign and a look ahead to what the team should do this offseason.  Sherman notes that while many of Van Wagenen’s bigger moves (i.e. the Mariners trade) backfired, many of his less-heralded moves proved successful, such as acquiring J.D. Davis or Justin Wilson.  Looking ahead to 2020, Sherman proposes that the Mets should continue to “find hidden treasures” on other teams’ rosters, acquire a proper center fielder (Sherman suggests the Padres’ Manuel Margot) for at least a platoon role, and hang onto Diaz and Noah Syndergaard rather than trade either pitcher.  To juggle the payroll, Sherman also suggests a few bad contract swaps, unloading the likes of Ramos or Jed Lowrie for high-priced relievers who are also in need of a change of scenery (such as the Rockies’ Jake McGee or White Sox righty Kelvin Herrera).
  • Dominic Smith, center fielder?  After getting work in the corner outfield this year, Smith tells MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo that he wants to contribute to the 2020 Mets at as many positions as possible.  This includes all three outfield spots and at his old first base position, despite something of a roster logjam — Pete Alonso obviously isn’t going anywhere at first base, while Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, or J.D. Davis could all be options for corner outfield work (not to mention the x-factor that is Yoenis Cespedes, should he be able to get healthy).  While center field may seem like a tall order for a player who didn’t fare well defensively as a corner outfielder, Smith will have an offseason to fully prepare himself for outfield work, and to that end has already hired a track coach for offseason speed training.  With the Mets looking for answers in center, there’s at least a chance that Smith could be a part-time solution up the middle.  “Why not get in great shape, man, and go out there and try to compete and do it? I don’t sell myself short on anything. I feel like I can go out there and compete and do anything,” Smith said.

Mets Activate Dominic Smith From 60-Day IL

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The Mets have activated first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith from the 60-day injured list, as per a team announcement (via Twitter).  Jeff McNeil will take Smith’s spot on the 60-day IL, as McNeil suffered a fractured wrist in last night’s game.

After a stress reaction in his left foot put Smith out of action back on July 27, he has made it back in time to add a coda onto what has already been a successful 2019 campaign.  Smith has hit .278/.352/.506 with 10 homers over 196 plate appearances, with the bulk of that playing time coming against right-handed pitching.  While Smith was much more successful (.882 OPS) against righties, he also managed a pretty respectable .281/.343/.406 slash line in his 35 PA against southpaws, which is a promising sign for the 24-year-old’s chances at becoming an everyday player.

Formerly a top-100 prospect, Smith’s first two seasons in the majors saw him hit only .210/.259/.406 over 332 PA.  Smith faced criticisms about his conditioning (which he addressed last winter) and, with Pete Alonso on the rise as the Mets’ new first baseman of the future, there was speculation that New York could look to trade Smith since he seemingly didn’t have any other position on the diamond.  Instead, Smith saw a lot of time in left field this year, though defensive metrics (-24.1 UZR/150, minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved) weren’t impressed by work.

It isn’t out of the question that Smith could be put on the trade market again, now that he has somewhat revived his stock by showing that he can hit MLB pitching.  An American League team that can offer DH at-bats could be a better fit than a National League club like the Mets, plus New York also has a crowded corner outfield situation as it is.  That said, Smith is still controlled for the next four seasons and isn’t arbitration-eligible until after 2020, so the Mets could prefer to keep him around as an inexpensive and useful part-timer.

NL East Notes: Realmuto, Mattingly, Mets

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Here’s the latest on a trio of clubs from the NL East:

  • Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has proven to be one of the most valuable acquisitions of last offseason, suggested back in July that he’d be open to signing an extension with the club. While a deal hasn’t come together yet, it looks as if the team’s interested in locking up Realmuto for the long haul, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Lauber notes Realmuto could soon become the game’s latest nine-figure catcher, which would place him in company with the likes of the Giants’ Buster Posey and now-retired Twins icon Joe Mauer. Realmuto, a former Marlin, has been superb in 2019 – his age-28 campaign – and has continued to make a case for one of the richest paydays in the history of his position. With just one more season of control left after this one, the Phillies will have to act fast if they’re going to prevent Realmuto from leaving over the next year-plus. Having traded elite pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto over the winter, it stands to reason the Phillies will make a serious attempt to keep the two-time All-Star backstop in the fold.
  • In an interview with Andre Fernandez of The Athletic (subscription required), Marlins manager Don Mattingly once again indicated he’d like to manage the club in 2020. But if a new agreement between Mattingly, whose contract is set to expire, and the Marlins doesn’t come together after the season, he’ll be willing to go elsewhere. Mattingly said it’s his “mindset” to manage someplace in 2020, whether it’s Miami or another MLB city. The 58-year-old is in his fourth season in Miami, and though the win-loss results haven’t been pretty, Mattingly’s respected enough to potentially end up on other teams’ radars if the Marlins don’t retain him.
  • Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith and right-hander Robert Gsellman are still hoping to return this season, per Tim Healey of Newsday. Time is obviously running out on the injured pair, however. Smith hasn’t played since July 27 on account of a stress reaction in his left foot, but the 24-year-old was among the Mets’ most effective hitters of 2019 before then. Gsellman has been down for just under a month with a partial lat tear – an injury that cut off an unspectacular campaign for the 26-year-old reliever.

Mets Activate Jed Lowrie

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The Mets are set to welcome one of their offseason additions, as infielder Jed Lowrie has been activated from the injured list, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. In addition, Dominic Smith has been transferred to the 60-day injured list and right-hander Drew Gagnon has been recalled from Triple-A.

Lowrie, one of the Mets’ significant signings of the offseason, has yet to play a game in his new uniform due to a series of left leg injuries affecting the knee, hamstring, and calf. Lowrie, 35, inked a 2-year, $20MM contract with the Mets but began the season on the injured list with a left knee capsule strain that emerged in Spring Training. However, a hamstring strain in May delayed the timetable for his recovery, and it seems that rehab subsequently snowballed into a complicated mess of recovery and re-injury.

With Robinson Cano and Todd Frazier installed at second and third base, respectively, it’s unclear just how much playing time Lowrie will receive. In that regard, not much has changed since Lowrie was signed, when the fit appeared questionable, given the team’s invested in Cano and the presence of promising youngster Jeff McNeil. At the very least, he’ll be able to offer some return on the first year of the Mets’ investment. He’s coming off a pair of productive seasons in Oakland, posting a cumulative OPS of .804, including a career-best 23 home runs last season. While he likely isn’t at full health yet, the Mets will hope for signs that Lowrie isn’t far off those numbers—not only for this season, but with an eye on 2020 as well.

Meanwhile, Smith may very well have played his last game this season; now on the 60-day IL, the earliest he could return would come in the final week of the regular season. If indeed his season is over, he’ll close the book on a breakthrough age-24 season in which he has slashed .278/.352/.506 in a part-time role. However, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports that there’s a chance he could be cleared to make another appearance or two, as he’ll be reevaluated in his recovery from a stress fracture in his left foot.

Mets Notes: Lowrie, Smith, Scouts

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The Mets’ late-season revival looks as if it’s petering out. After a tumultous first few months of the year, the Mets shockingly climbed into National League playoff contention by ripping off 21 wins in 26 games after the All-Star break. But New York has gone a woeful 6-10 since then, and with six straight losses (including a 4-1 defeat to the Cubs on Thursday), the 67-66 club’s now what could be an insurmountable five games out of a wild-card spot. Here’s more on the suddenly floundering team…

  • This season may not be a total lost cause for infielder Jed Lowrie, a free-agent pickup who hasn’t played at all in 2019 on account of knee, hamstring and calf injuries. Lowrie has been playing rehab games at the Triple-A level (he hit a home run Thursday), and the Mets remain “hopeful” he’ll make his debut in their uniform sometime next month, Anthony Rieber of Newsday writes. Manager Mickey Callaway issued a positive update on the 35-year-old Lowrie on Thursday, saying “he’s healthy” and “feeling good at this point.” After a pair of terrific seasons with Oakland, Lowrie joined the Mets on a two-year, $20MM contract, though it’s now unclear how often a healthy version will slot into the club’s starting lineup going forward. After all, the Mets figure to go into 2020 with Robinson Cano at second base and versatile breakout performers Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis as candidates to continue racking up playing time at the hot corner.
  • Like Lowrie, injured first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith is progressing toward a comeback, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News relays. Smith went to the IL on July 27 with a stress reaction in his left foot, which interrupted a quality season for the 24-year-old, but he finally just received clearance to resume baseball activity. Although plenty were down on Smith coming into 2019, the former top 100 prospect has slashed .278/.352/.506 with 10 home runs in 196 PA this season. It’s up in the air how much of a future he has with the Mets, however, as first baseman/NL Rookie of the Year front-runner Pete Alonso isn’t going anywhere, while McNeil, Davis, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo represent a handful of controllable and viable corner outfielders.
  • There’s a house-cleaning going on in the Mets’ scouting department. The organization let go of director of pro scouting Jim D’Aloia on Wednesday, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. D’Aloia, who has been with the Mets for eight seasons, will remain in place until his contract runs out on Oct. 31. The Mets followed D’Aloia’s dismissal by parting with pro scouts Tim Kissner, Tim Fortugno and Lee MacPhail on Thursday, per Andy Martino of SNY. All three ave “good reputations in the game,” notes Martino, who adds that the club’s sure to make more changes in the coming weeks. That jibes with a report from Yahoo’s Matt Ehalt, who tweets that more turnover is coming and hears that it’s “an ugly situation” behind the scenes.
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