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Cardinals Didn’t Actively Pursue Free Agent Shortstop Help Before The Lockout

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The Cardinals have entered each of the past four seasons with Paul DeJong as the Opening Day shortstop. He’d earned the starting nod in 2018 after hitting .285/.325/.532 across 443 plate appearances as a rookie the year prior. DeJong’s next two seasons weren’t quite as strong, but he still combined slightly above-average offense with highly-regarded glovework.

Over the last two years, though, DeJong’s production at the dish has tailed off. Going back to the start of 2020, he’s just a .213/.295/.378 hitter over 576 trips to the plate. That led to a fall down the batting order and eventually, a reduction in playing time. Edmundo Sosa took the lion’s share of at-bats in the season’s final month, and erstwhile skipper Mike Shildt turned to Sosa in a must-win Wild Card game.

With how the second half of the season played out, it seemed like DeJong could wind up as a trade candidate this winter. The free agent shortstop class was loaded with stars, and the Cardinals don’t have many obvious areas of need on the position player side. Yet there was no indication St. Louis made much effort to move DeJong in the early stages of the offseason, and Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch now writes that the Cardinals “were not active in discussions with any player in this marquee class of free-agent shortstops” prior to the lockout.

While it’s possible the team ignites free agent discussions after the transactions freeze — Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain available — it seems likelier shortstop will be DeJong’s job to lose. Not only was he not the subject of any trade rumors of note, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch gave DeJong a public vote of confidence at November’s GM Meetings. According to Goold, Cardinals executives also privately expressed confidence in DeJong’s ability to right the ship and reclaim the shortstop job in 2022. (Those conversations also occurred before the lockout, which includes a prohibition on contact between team staff and players on the 40-man roster).

DeJong’s contact rate and overall average exit velocity have each dipped over the past couple seasons. Yet he actually barreled balls up at a career-best 10.6% clip last year, and his exit velocity on balls hit in the air hasn’t meaningfully changed. That provides some reason for optimism DeJong’s offensive production can improve, particularly if last season’s .212 batting average on balls in play regresses closer to his .282 career mark. The 28-year-old isn’t merely resting on his laurels awaiting better batted ball fortune, however, as he chats with Goold about changes he’s made to his offseason training routine.

Regardless of whether he rebounds offensively, DeJong should be a key part of a high-end defensive infield. He’s coming off a season regarded highly by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, and DRS has pegged DeJong as a plus gloveman throughout his career. Sosa remains on hand as a potential fallback option, coming off a nice .271/.346/.389 showing. DeJong is guaranteed around $6.167MM next season and is controllable through 2025 under the terms of the contract extension he signed four seasons ago.

Trade Candidate: Paul DeJong

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One of the biggest decisions for the Cardinals this winter is how to handle the shortstop position. That hasn’t been the case in a while. Paul DeJong had a great rookie season in 2017, and he’s been the Cards’ Opening Day shortstop for each of the four seasons since.

Going into 2022, it no longer seems to be DeJong’s job. That rookie season was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play that DeJong never seemed likely to sustain, but he was a solid hitter over the next couple years. Coupled with high-end defensive metrics, he was still a highly valuable player. DeJong’s bat has taken another step down over the last two years, though, and that seemingly puts his future with the organization in question.

Since the start of 2020, DeJong has tallied 576 plate appearances, nearly the equivalent of a typical season. He’s hit just .213/.295/.378, a mark that makes him fourteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong still brings some power upside, popping 22 home runs with a .165 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that’s right around average. He has struck out in an elevated 26.6% of his trips to the plate, though. Paired with a very low .254 BABIP, that has led DeJong to post one of the lower batting averages and on-base marks among regular players.

DeJong is still generally effective at barreling balls up, but he’s also had far too many wasted plate appearances. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, which can be a bit of a double-edged sword. Hitting the ball in the air gives a player plenty of opportunities to do damage, but weakly hit fly balls aren’t especially useful. DeJong has had his share of softly hit balls in the air, with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity on air balls that ranks in the 42nd percentile leaguewide (minimum 1000 pitches seen). That middle-of-the-road batted ball quality has come as DeJong’s contact rate has dropped a few percentage points over the past two seasons, falling from roughly league average to a bit below.

While DeJong hasn’t been an especially productive hitter in recent seasons, he hasn’t been without value. Defensive metrics have still pegged him as a solid or better defender. Over the past two seasons, DeJong has rated as six runs above average at shortstop by DRS, while Statcast has him at two plays above average. Even average play at shortstop is valuable, and DeJong’s probably at least a tick above par defensively.

Because of that defensive acumen, DeJong has been valued at around two wins above replacement since the start of 2020 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s roughly league average for the amount he has played. So even with his bat going backwards, DeJong’s still a capable player who is just two years removed from an All-Star berth. He’d be an upgrade over some teams’ current shortstop situations.

Speculatively speaking, the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Angels, Rangers, A’s, Astros, Tigers and Twins are among the teams who might be in the shortstop market this winter. With a star-studded crop of free agent shortstops, DeJong won’t be priority number one for any of those clubs. They can’t all land high-end free agent options, though, and some could view DeJong as a reasonable fallback option.

In March 2018, DeJong and the Cardinals agreed on a contract extension, the guaranteed portion of which runs through 2023. He’ll make $6MM next season and $9MM the following year, and he’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $12.5MM. The contract also contains another club option covering 2025. Given DeJong’s offensive struggles the past couple seasons, that deal no longer looks like a massive bargain. But it’s certainly not an outlandish detriment to a team’s finances either, and the two options give a potential acquiring team some upside if DeJong manages to turn things around at the dish.

That all leads to an interesting offseason decision for the St. Louis front office. DeJong’s 2022 salary isn’t outlandish, but they might want to look into the top shortstops available themselves. Alternatively, they could trade DeJong and rely on the player who became the de facto shortstop down the stretch this past season: Edmundo Sosa.

Sosa has long been viewed by public prospect evaluators as a future glove-first utilityman. He outperformed those expectations as a rookie, though, hitting .271/.346/.389 with six homers in 326 plate appearances. Sosa didn’t walk or hit for much power, but his aggressive approach helped keep his strikeouts low as well.

Turning shortstop over to Sosa based on half a season’s worth of work would be a risk, but he did enough down the stretch to seemingly surpass DeJong on the organizational depth chart. It’d be defensible to give Sosa a chance to seize the job, particularly given this regime’s solid track record in developing position players who overperform their general prospect expectations.

How to handle the shortstop position going into 2022 is a key question for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office. That’s unfamiliar territory in St. Louis, but DeJong’s recent drop-off at the dish makes it possible he could wind up on the move in the coming months.

Cardinals Place Justin Miller On Injured List

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The Cardinals have placed right-handed pitcher Justin Miller on the injured list with an elbow strain, per a team announcement. Fellow righty Jake Woodford, who was optioned after yesterday’s double-header, has been recalled in a corresponding move.

The extent of Miller’s injury is not known at this time, though an elbow injury is always concerning for a pitcher. This will be his second trip to the IL this year, as he hit the shelf in August with right ulnar nerve irritation. The 34-year-old was claimed off waivers from the Nationals in July and has thrown 19 innings this year between the two clubs. Miller had a bloated ERA of 15.00 over a tiny three-inning sample with Washington but fared much better after swapping jerseys. In 16 innings with the Cardinals, he has an ERA of 4.50. With less than ten days remaining in the regular season, and the pitching staff recently being bolstered by the returns of Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, it seems possible that Miller won’t return for the club this year. Though if he can return to health and the Cards go on a lengthy playoff run, they could circle back to him in the event of other injuries. He can be retained this offseason via arbitration but seems likely to be non-tendered.

The one bit of good news for the Cardinals in all this pertains to Edmundo Sosa. The shortstop was hit on the wrist by a pitch yesterday and immediately left the game. Manager Mike Shildt later told reporters, including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, that they couldn’t find evidence of a fracture and that Sosa would miss just a few days. The fact that he was not placed on the IL today suggests that estimate holds and that they don’t expect his absence to stretch into the postseason. The 25-year-old has been a pleasant surprise for the club this season, hitting .274/.348/.395. That adds up to a wRC+ of 106, his highest such mark at any level since a rookie ball stint back in 2017. Combined with quality defense, he’s been worth 1.8 wins above replacement this season, according to FanGraphs. The Cardinals can probably afford to be somewhat cautious with his recovery, given that they’re currently on an incredible 14-game winning streak, which has launched them into the final NL Wild Card spot, with a five-game cushion between them and their nearest competitors, the Phillies.

Paul DeJong should slot into short in Sosa’s place, for the time being. The 28-year-old’s bat has slipped a bit in recent years. From 2017 to 2019, he slashed .251/.318/.467, for a wRC+ of 108. But over 2020 and 2021, he’s hitting just .215/.299/.378, wRC+ of 88. Though thanks to good defensive numbers, he’s still been worth 2.1 fWAR in that time. DeJong is under contract through 2023, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The emergence of Sosa, who will have five years of control after this one, could give the club a surplus from which to trade. But Sosa has also played some second and third base this season, perhaps allowing the Cards to keep both and maintain flexibility.

Cardinals Finalize Opening Day Roster

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The St. Louis Cardinals have set their roster for opening day, per MLB.com’s Jeff Jones, Derrick S. Goold of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch and others (Twitter links). John Nogowski, Austin Dean, Edmundo Sosa, and Jake Woodford will be on the roster, while Lane Thomas and Kodi Whitley become two of the final cuts. Goold lists the final opening day roster here.

Nogowski required a strong spring to make the roster, as the 28-year-old first baseman doesn’t bring a lot of utility to the roster. He did exactly that, however, slashing .379/.526/.586 in spring action. He’ll be the first right-handed bat off the bench. With Matt Carpenter on hand to serve as Paul Goldschmidt’s primary backup, it’s hard to imagine Nogowski seeing much action in the field.

The Thomas demotion might have the most impact, as without him, the Cardinals don’t have a true centerfielder on the roster. The Cards are all-in on rookie Dylan Carlson as their man in the middle until Harrison Bader returns from injury. Justin Williams and Austin Dean will be among the players replacing Carlson in right. Tommy Edman, who won the starting second base job, could also see time in right while Carpenter or Edmundo Sosa step in at the keystone. Starting left fielder Tyler O’Neill, meanwhile, is most likely to backup Carlson in center.

Woodford, 24, wins a spot in the bullpen on the strength of a 1.04 ERA this spring. Whitley, 26, heads to the minors to begin the season. Woodford can serve as a long man out of the pen, which may be important given the uncertainty in the back end of the rotation where Carlos Martinez, John Gant, and Daniel Ponce de Leon will take their turns until Miles Mikolas and/or Kwang Hyun Kim return. From the left side, Tyler Webb and Genesis Cabrera join Andrew Miller in the bullpen.

Cardinals Place Andrew Miller On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cardinals placed lefty Andrew Miller on the 10-day injured list due to shoulder fatigue, the team announced.  Right-hander Junior Fernandez was activated from the injured list in a corresponding move.

Miller’s IL visit is apparently “just a recovery thing,” manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  Like many other Cardinals players, Miller is still getting back up to full speed following the team’s coronavirus outbreak-driven stoppage in play.  To that end, Fernandez himself is returning after a positive COVID-19 sidelined him for much of the season, as the rookie has only appeared in one game this season.  Rogers also notes that infielder Edmundo Sosa was assigned to the Cardinals’ alternate training site after being activated today from the team’s coronavirus injured list.

Shildt feels Miller will be back after the 10-day minimum stay, saying that “he’s been a warrior and just was honest and said, ’I could probably keep going and pushing through it,’ but I think we’d all feel better if we could get it behind him.”

Miller has a 4.76 ERA through 5 2/3 innings this season, with the bulk of that damage coming in one tough outing (two earned runs over one-third of an inning) against the Cubs on August 19.  The left-hander has held opponents scoreless in five of his other six appearances this season.

Even a minimal visit to the injured list will create a bit of extra drama in regards to Miller’s contractual status.  His original two-year, $25MM deal carries a $12MM club option for 2021 that was originally set to become guaranteed with at least 110 games pitched over the 2019 and 2020 seasons.  Rogers writes that Miller is seven games short of triggering his vesting option, meaning that the 37 appearances he still required (after pitching in 73 games in 2019) was prorated down to 14 appearances, as per the normal prorated rate of a 60-game schedule.  Assuming Miller is back in 10 days or not much beyond, however, he should still have time left to bank his remaining seven games, though his usage down the stretch could be worth observing in the season’s final weeks.

NL Health Notes: Braves, Mets, Cards, Giants, Padres, Dodgers

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The Braves placed outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. on the injured list Saturday (retroactive to Aug. 12) because of left wrist inflammation, and the team’s hope then was that Acuna would be back by the upcoming weekend. However, there’s still no timetable for the superstar’s return, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien, who reports he’s continuing to battle soreness in his wrist. Meanwhile, second baseman Ozzie Albies – whom the Braves put on the IL on Aug. 5 with a bone contusion in his right wrist – is progressing but still has a ways to go, according to O’Brien.

  • Mets starters David Peterson and Jacob deGrom will take the ball as scheduled Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, Tim Healey of Newsday relays. Peterson had to leave his previous start last Thursday against the Nationals with left shoulder fatigue, while the club scratched deGrom on Friday because of a stiff neck. They’ve been the two best members of the rotation this year for the struggling Mets, as Peterson has performed like one of the game’s top rookies and the back-to-back Cy Young winner deGrom has continued to shine.
  • Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez and infielder Edmundo Sosa have been cleared to resume baseball activities, manager Mike Shildt announced to Mark Saxon of The Athletic and other reporters. They’re two of the many Cardinals who recently tested positive for the coronavirus. It’s not clear when either could return, as Shildt noted they’ll need time to build themselves back up. Martinez, long a key part of the Cardinals’ pitching staff, made one very rocky appearance earlier this season. Sosa hasn’t played in the majors this year.
  • Giants righty Jeff Samardzija will begin a throwing program Wednesday, according to the club (via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). Samardzija went on the injured list Aug. 8 with a shoulder impingement, which came after he opened the season with three rough performances. The pending free agent, 35, owns a ghastly 9.88 ERA across 13 2/3 innings, has already given up 18 hits and six home runs, and has only struck out five hitters.
  • The Padres placed catcher Francisco Mejia on the IL on Monday with a thumb bruise, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. With him and outfielder Tommy Pham (previously reported) headed to the shelf, the Padres recalled backstop Luis Torrens and utility player Ty France. Prior to going on the IL, Mejia got off to a woeful start this year with an .079/.146/.184 line in 41 plate appearances. He and fellow Padres catcher Austin Hedges have combined for a disastrous minus-1 wRC+ over 79 trips to the plate thus far.
  • The Dodgers announced that they’ve placed infielder Edwin Rios on the IL with a left hamstring strain and recalled lefty Adam Kolarek. The Rios injury is a blow to the Dodgers’ offense, as even though he’s just a part-time player, the 26-year-old has done nothing but hit since debuting last season. So far in 2020, Rios has slashed .276/.323/.690 with three home runs in 31 plate appearances.

Cardinals Place Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Carlos Martinez On Injured List

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4:00pm: Molina, DeJong, Sosa, Fernandez, Whitley and Carlos Martinez have all been placed on the injured list, the Cardinals announced. Veteran infielder Brad Miller, meanwhile, has been activated from the IL. Corresponding roster moves will be announced in the coming days, per the club.

The Cardinals also announced that minor league hitting coordinator Russ Steinhorn, who has been working at the team’s alternate training site, will join the Major League coaching staff. Assistant minor league hitting coordinator Joey Hawkins will head to the alternate site in his place.

10:50am: Mainstay Cardinals backstop Yadier Molina announced today that he is among the players that has tested positive for COVID-19. Starting shortstop Paul DeJong is also among the players to test positive.

The team further announced (with the players’ approval) that infielders Edmundo Sosa and Rangel Ravelo and pitchers Junior Fernandez and Kodi Whitley have been infected with the coronavirus. That would appear to leave one additional player unidentified based upon prior indications of seven positive tests.

Each of these players will obviously be sidelined while recovering, which will hopefully occur in short order. They’ll have to test negative twice before being allowed to resume baseball activities with the organization. Depending upon the amount of time that takes, each player could potentially require some training time before rejoining the active roster.

The most important thing here, obviously, is the health of the players involved and those that have potentially come into contact with them. Based upon recent testing results, the team is hopeful that the spread has been limited to these players and the various staff members that have already tested positive.

From a baseball standpoint, it’s obviously a significant blow to the team’s roster. The 38-year-old Molina has long carried a huge burden behind the dish. DeJong is a high-quality younger player. While the other players had lesser roles, they’re all part of the depth picture. And Whitley seemed primed to emerge as a potentially important part of the club’s bullpen.

Andrew Knizner and veteran Matt Wieters will presumably share duties at the catching position. Filling the void at short could prove tricky, particularly with all three infielders departing the roster at the same moment. There’s no clear option in the 60-man player pool. Utility candidate Max Schrock lacks substantial experience at short. Elehuris Montero and Nolan Gorman are young infielders with talent, but they’re still fairly raw and are both limited to third base.

Cardinals Option Four Players To Triple-A

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The Cardinals optioned outfielders Austin Dean and Justin Williams, infielder Edmundo Sosa, and righty Jake Woodford to Triple-A, as per the club’s Twitter feed.

Dean has by far the most MLB experience of the group, appearing in 98 games with the Marlins over the past two seasons.  St. Louis acquired Dean in January, though Dean faced a lot of competition for an Opening Day roster spot, given the amount of outfield depth in the Cards’ camp.  Dean played mostly as a left fielder in Miami with a few appearances in right field and first base, and he hit .223/.268/.388 with 10 homers over 311 plate appearances.

Williams faced a similar situation as Dean did in facing an uphill battle to win an outfield job, though Williams’ left-handed bat makes him a solid call-up possibility during the season given that Cardinals’ other outfielders are mostly right-handed hitters.  A second-round pick for the Diamondbacks in the 2013 draft, Williams was dealt to the Rays in 2014 and then came to St. Louis as part of the return in the Tommy Pham trade package at the July 2018 deadline.  Shortly before that deal, Williams received his lone bit of MLB experience to date — a single plate appearance on July 21, 2018.

As noted by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sosa is eligible to be sent down due to a fourth option year, as opposed to the usual three.  After the Cardinals cut ties with Yairo Munoz, Sosa stood to benefit from that unusual situation, and he played well in Spring Training in his bid for a utility infield job.  While at Triple-A, Sosa will be the “de facto backup” to Cardinals’ starting shortstop Paul DeJong on the big league roster, should DeJong suffer a longer-term injury.  Sosa has had only a few more cups of coffee in the big leagues than Williams, as Sosa has appeared a total of 11 games for St. Louis over the last two seasons.

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