Headlines

  • Stuart Sternberg Has Agreed To Sell Rays To Patrick Zalupski, Deal Expected To Be Final By September
  • Nationals Select Eli Willits With First Pick Of 2025 Amateur Draft
  • 2025 MLB Draft, First Round Results
  • Red Sox Place Hunter Dobbins On 15-Day IL Due To ACL Tear
  • Astros Promote Brice Matthews
  • Red Sox Likely To Activate Alex Bregman Tomorrow
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Free Agent Profiles

Free Agent Profile: Scott Kazmir

By Tim Dierkes | September 21, 2013 at 10:17am CDT

Nine months ago, Scott Kazmir could not find a team willing to give him a Major League contract.  After all, the former phenom pitched (poorly) for the Sugarland Skeeters in 2012 and hadn't had big league success since 2008.  However, Kazmir's rise from the ashes began with rediscovered velocity in a bullpen session behind his house last summer, as chronicled by Howard Megdal of Sports on Earth, and now he's probably one of the 15 best free agent starting pitchers available.

USATSI_7275226

Strengths/Pros

Kazmir doesn't turn 30 years old until January, so by free agent standards he's still young.  His velocity has returned: he's averaging 92.5 miles per hour on his fastball, his best since his rookie season.  His fastball velocity is tied for fifth among all free agent starters, and only seven southpaw starters throw harder in all of baseball.  This year he's whiffed nearly 23% of the batters he's faced, a figure only three free agents have topped.

Additionally, this is the first year in his career Kazmir has walked fewer than three per nine innings.  The combination of strikeouts and control leads ERA estimator SIERA to peg him at 3.62, fourth best among free agent starters.

While Kazmir has put together a nice season, it's difficult to picture the Indians making a qualifying offer and risking a one-year, $14MM deal.  If they don't make such an offer, Kazmir will not be tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Kazmir will likely finish the season with fewer than 160 innings, unless the Indians make the playoffs.  Though he earned the Indians' fifth starter job out of spring training, a right rib cage strain delayed his return to the Majors until April 20th.  Kazmir's innings total is also held down by his inability to go deep into games, as he's averaged about 5.4 frames per start.  He's averaged 17.5 pitches per inning, the 11th-highest in baseball for those with 100 innings.  He's also had some health scares earlier in his career, with DL time in '06 for shoulder inflammation and in '08 for an elbow strain.

The bigger issue is how unlikely Kazmir's story has been.  Years of data suggested he wasn't a Major League pitcher, and now he'll require a multimillion dollar commitment on the strength of 156 innings or so.  What if his velocity disappears again?  What if his arm responds poorly to the innings jump he made in 2013?  Any team signing Kazmir is taking a leap of faith.

2013 hasn't been a flawless year, anyway, as Kazmir has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has allowed 1.18 home runs per nine innings.  Generally I shrug off a .320 batting average on balls in play and a 12.3% home run per flyball rate, but those things did happen, and Kazmir's actual ERA is 4.34.

Personal

Kazmir grew up idolizing Nolan Ryan and later patterned himself after Billy Wagner, according to JockBio.com.  Kazmir's father worked for a Texas welding supply company run by Adam Dunn's uncle, and the two future big leaguers sometimes played Wiffle ball together, reported Albert Chen of SI.com.  Drafted 15th overall by the Mets in 2002, Kazmir was traded to the Rays in '04 for Victor Zambrano in an infamously lopsided deal.

Market

"I would love to stay here," Kazmir told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer this month in regard to re-signing with the Indians, adding, "I'm very interested…I'd love to contribute and continue to be with this group."  The Indians also have to determine the future of Ubaldo Jimenez, another coveted free agent starter.

Kazmir has earned over $30MM in his career, mostly by virtue of a 2008 three-year extension signed with the Rays.  It's too early to say whether he'll opt for the comfort of Cleveland, where he resurrected his career, or try to find the largest and longest contract possible on the open market given the uncertainty he faced over the last several years.  Kazmir is a Houston native, but it's unclear whether geography will be a factor in free agency.

Expected Contract

The bar for a two-year contract for a starting pitcher is not terribly high — Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Carlos Villanueva, and Kevin Correia reached it last offseason.  That third year can be hard to come by, and if Kazmir's main goal is security, perhaps a vesting option could be brokered by agent Brian Peters.  If Kazmir is simply trying to maximize his earnings and has faith in his rediscovered ability, he might prefer a one-year deal in the $8-10MM range, allowing him to further prove himself in 2014 before returning to free agency.

In the end, I expect Kazmir to sign a two-year, $16MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 2 Retweet 13 Send via email0

Cleveland Guardians Free Agent Profiles Scott Kazmir

0 comments

Free Agent Profile: Scott Feldman

By Steve Adams | September 20, 2013 at 1:46pm CDT

Scott Feldman didn't exactly take a conventional path to his first free agent contract. As a 23-year-old in 2006, he enjoyed a solid rookie campaign in the Rangers' bullpen only to struggle through his sophomore campaign in the same role. Texas responded by giving him 25 starts in 2008, which produced an ERA over 5.00, but Feldman posted a 4.08 ERA in 189 2/3 innings in 2009. His ERA spiked back over 5.00 in 2010, and microfracture surgery on his knee caused him to miss most of the 2011 season. When he returned, the rotation was stacked, and Feldman went back to relief work. Well, for a half-season anyhow. After a 3.94 ERA as a reliever in 2011, he made another 21 starts in 2012 but saw his ERA creep north of 5.00 again.

Unfazed by his inconsistency and likely noting his more promising peripheral stats, the Cubs picked Feldman up on a low-risk, one-year deal worth $6MM (plus incentives) this past offseason.  Feldman

Strengths/Pros

Through all of Feldman's ups and downs, two things have remained constant: he has good command and he generates ground balls. Feldman's highest single-season BB/9 mark dating back to 2008 is 3.3, and he's posted a mark of 2.9 overall since that time (in 811 innings). He's never posted a ground-ball rate below 42 percent. His career mark of 47.3 is above the league average, and he's been even better in 2013, generating grounders at a 50.7 percent clip.

Feldman's career ERA of 4.56 is a near mirror image of his 4.45 FIP, 4.41 xFIP and 4.50 SIERA. An ERA in the mid-4.00s is a very reasonable expectation for Feldman, and his past three seasons of work have produced a 3.91 FIP, 3.91 xFIP and 3.95 SIERA, so there's plenty of room for optimism. The similarities between his FIP and xFIP are easily explainable — Feldman allows homers at roughly a league-average rate (10.4 percent career HR/FB). All of his work has come for teams in hitter-friendly home parks (the Rangers, Cubs and Orioles), demonstrating that he can succeed in difficult settings.

Feldman will be 31 years old in February, making him one of the younger starters available on the market. He won't be tied to draft pick compensation, as he's ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded midseason.

Feldman had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2003 but hasn't had any arm-related health issues since. It can be argued that he has little mileage on his arm compared to similarly aged free agents; he's thrown 900 2/3 Major League innings to date.

Weaknesses/Cons

Feldman has never been a flamethrower, but his 90 mph average on his four-seamer and 88 mph average on his cutter this season are both career-lows. As a ground-ball pitcher, he doesn't miss many bats — his swinging-strike will rate sit between six and eight percent in any given season — nor does he generate many strikeouts. His K/9 rate of 6.5 this season is actually an improvement over his 5.6 career mark but still lower than the league average for starting pitchers (7.2).

The inconsistent track record that I alluded to before also makes his durability a relative question mark. Feldman has never tossed more than 189 2/3 innings in a season, and he's only topped 30 starts in a season on one occasion. As it stands, he's on pace to make exactly 30 starts this season, but he won't set a new career-high for innings pitched without hurling a pair of complete games in his final two starts.

Personal

Feldman, whose father is a retired FBI agent, is an avid supporter of the Wounded Warrior project. He and his wife have also hosted charity softball events in Dallas to raise money for wounded military members and participated in fundraisers and blanket drives for anti-domestic violence organizations. Highly competitive by nature, Feldman has a fairly quiet personality and is very popular among teammates. He embodies the "every fifth day" mentality, as he always wants to take the ball, even in the face of soreness and injury.

Market

Feldman isn't going to be one of the very top starters on the free agent market, and as such he may wait until after some of the bigger names have signed to ink a deal of his own. That waiting game is a delicate balance, however, as pitchers like Joe Saunders and Brett Myers can attest to. Each waited until after the New Year to sign and settled for a one-year deal last offseason while comparable arms like Brandon McCarthy, Kevin Correia and Joe Blanton signed in December and received two guaranteed years.

Feldman's ground-ball tendencies won't scare off teams in small parks, and unlike the Matt Garzas and Masahiro Tanakas of the world, Feldman probably won't be priced out of any team's range. He could be appealing to a large number of teams looking for a quality arm to slot into the middle or back of their rotations.

Predicted Contract

It's tough to foresee Feldman earning himself three guaranteed years on the open market given his inconsistent innings totals, but his 2013 can't be ignored. He's posted a 3.49 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 50.7 percent ground-ball rate to this point, which should be enough to land a two-year deal at a slightly higher rate than the $7MM he'll bring home this year after hitting his incentives. Perhaps his agent, Matt Brown of Pro Prospects Inc., could compromise by pushing for an easily attainable vesting option for a third year based on innings pitched.

Ultimately, Jeremy Guthrie's three-year, $25MM contract from last year could be his ceiling, but I predict that Feldman will sign a two-year, $17MM contract with a vesting option for a third season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 0 Retweet 7 Send via email0

Baltimore Orioles Free Agent Profiles Scott Feldman

0 comments

Free Agent Profile: Bronson Arroyo

By Tim Dierkes | September 18, 2013 at 4:45pm CDT

Barring an injury in the next 12 days, Bronson Arroyo will be the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005 to present.  Even Dan Haren, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle can't make that claim.  Arroyo, 37 in February, came into his own after a March 2006 trade from the Red Sox to the Reds, but during that time he's never hit the open market as a free agent despite never getting a guarantee exceeding three years.

USATSI_7363051

Strengths/Pros

When you hear a pitcher praised for "taking the ball every fifth day," that doesn't mean that he literally never misses a turn in the rotation.  But that truly can be said for the rubber-armed Arroyo, as explained above.  Not only does Arroyo make all of his starts, but he's good for six-plus innings each time out.  He projects for about 205 innings this year, right around his recent annual average.  Arroyo will likely be joined by only Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, and Hiroki Kuroda as 200-inning free agent pitchers.

Arroyo doesn't just take the ball; he adds positive value.  He'll likely finish with a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his last five seasons, and it's down to 3.56 at the moment.  We recently extolled the virtues of Nolasco's walk rates, but Arroyo's is even better.  In fact, only Cliff Lee and Haren have walked fewer batters per nine innings since 2011.

We'll reference Arroyo's age as a negative in free agency, but the fact that he'll pitch at 37 next year is the reason he can expect a two-year deal at best.  Signing Arroyo lacks upside, but one or two years for him seems safer than four for Matt Garza.  As for a qualifying offer?  I doubt Arroyo gets one, as the perenially budget-conscious Reds won't want to risk paying him $14MM next year, even if he says he wants a multiyear deal.

Arroyo is also solid defensively, having picked up a Gold Glove award in 2010.

Weaknesses/Cons

It's always scary to give decent money to a guy with an 87 mile per hour fastball, with the concern that he'll lose another tick of velocity and start throwing batting practice.  He's got one of the lowest swinging-strike rates in the free agent class.  Arroyo is a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurler, and he's had multiple years where he's allowed around ten hits per nine innings.  When that happens, it results in a lot of baserunners even with a low walk rate.  On top of that, Arroyo is mostly a flyball pitcher, so he's relatively prone to the longball.

Arroyo also lacks upside; it's easier to picture Garza, Tim Lincecum, Masahiro Tanaka, or even Scott Kazmir and Phil Hughes ascending (or returning) to the heights of a front of the rotation Major League starter.

Arroyo has a history of avoiding injury, but how many 37-year-olds have reached 200 innings in recent years?  If we include Kuroda for 2013, it has happened only four times in the last five seasons: two seasons from Kuroda, and two from R.A. Dickey.

Personal

Arroyo is an accomplished musician, putting out a CD in '05 and performing in concert at various functions regularly.  He's a four-time winner of the Reds' Joe Nuxhall Good Guy Award.

Market

As the Reds' longest-tenured player, Arroyo's first choice is to stay, but it's less likely if they don't offer multiple years.  Back in January 2011, Arroyo told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald the other two teams he'd be interested in pitching for are the Rays (he resides in Florida in the offseason) and the Red Sox (his former team).  It is difficult to picture either AL team offering Arroyo a multiyear deal, however.

Expected Contract

Arroyo made it clear earlier this month he considers this his final shot at a multiyear deal.  I think there is a chance of a two-year offer, along the lines of Ryan Dempster's $26.5MM contract.  In the end I predict a two-year, $24MM contract for Arroyo.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 2 Retweet 8 Send via email0

Cincinnati Reds Free Agent Profiles Bronson Arroyo

0 comments

Free Agent Profile: Roberto Hernandez

By Tim Dierkes | September 17, 2013 at 6:51pm CDT

In his first full season in 2007, Indians starter Fausto Carmona finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting.  After some ups and downs, he seemed settled in as a mid-rotation arm with some upside, until he was arrested in January 2012 in the Dominican Republic for using a false identity.  Carmona, now known as Roberto Hernandez, was found to be three years older than originally believed.  After a brief return to the Indians, the Rays swooped in and signed him for a meager $3.25MM guarantee on a one-year deal this past offseason.

USATSI_7418340

Strengths/Pros

Among qualified pitchers, Hernandez ranks sixth in baseball with a 53.1% groundball rate.  And that's down from Hernandez's groundballing peak, as he was above 63% in 2007-08.  A high groundball rate is almost never a bad thing, but we'll elaborate later in the post.

Hernandez has exhibited strong control this year with a 2.1 BB/9, a career best.  He's also authoring a career-best strikeout rate at 6.8 per nine.  The resulting 3.23 K/BB ratio ranks seventh among free agent starters.

The ERA estimator SIERA suggests the skills Hernandez has displayed this year are good for a 3.58 mark.  Among free agents, only A.J. Burnett and Dan Haren have done better in this regard, and Hernandez bests pitchers such as Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Tim Lincecum, Hiroki Kuroda, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Bronson Arroyo, who will all receive larger commitments.

It is impossible to picture the Rays extending a qualifying offer to Hernandez, so he won't come with draft pick compensation issues like Santana, Kuroda, and perhaps Lincecum.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you're a believer in the predictive value of ERA, you won't be inspired by Hernandez's 4.89 figure this season.  It's hard to defend a pretty K/BB ratio as a pitcher gets battered — for example, Hernandez allowed four runs on ten hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Tigers on June 6th, and he doesn't get extra credit for striking out six and walking one that day.  Hernandez has allowed nearly ten hits per nine innings this year, which stands out even if we quietly note his slightly elevated .309 batting average on balls in play.

We also have to talk about home runs allowed.  In theory, keeping the ball in the yard should be among Hernandez's biggest strengths, since he gets so many groundballs.  In reality, he's allowed 1.28 home runs per nine innings in 352 frames since 2011.  This year, he's at 1.45 — third worst in the game among qualified starters.  A whopping 21% of Hernandez's flyballs have cleared the fence, twice the MLB average this year.  Nearly a quarter of the flyballs hit against Hernandez by left-handed batters have gone for home runs this year.  While it's fairly safe to assume Hernandez won't reach those heights again in 2014, it's also fair to say he's worse than the average pitcher at keeping flyballs in the yard, and the ERA estimators are giving him too much credit.

Hernandez was a member of one of the game's deepest rotations, and was demoted to the bullpen in September with the Rays having better options.  Even if he might still be in the rotation for many other clubs, it's not a good development for a pitcher heading back into free agency.

Personal

Hernandez has three brothers and three sisters, according to the Rays' media guide, and spent part of the offseason working with the cattle at his family's farm in the Dominican Republic.  He's in touch with nature, doing much of his offseason running in the mountains near the farm.  Hernandez is married, with three children.

Market

It's too early to pin down potential suitors for Hernandez, as there are a large number of teams that could plug him into the back end of their rotation on the cheap.  He reportedly drew interest from at least five teams last offseason.  Hernandez seems like a free agent who could sign in January, after the bigger names are off the board.  For certain clubs with weak rotations, he could be a big fish in a small pond.  From what we've heard, Hernandez has his mind set on returning to a starting role in 2014.  

Expected Contract

Despite his struggles, Hernandez is in better shape than he was a year ago, when he barely pitched due to his identity fraud situation.  Agent Charisse Espinosa-Dash will likely set out seeking two guaranteed years, and I view the two-year, $10MM deals signed by Carlos Villanueva, Kevin Correia, and Chris Capuano as Hernandez's ceiling.  Back in May, when it seemed likely his home run per flyball rate would come down, I pictured a Brandon McCarthy/Joe Blanton-type contract in the two-year, $16MM range.  Ultimately, since Hernandez will pitch at 33 next year and didn't finish strong, I predict a one-year, $5MM contract, plus incentives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 0 Retweet 8 Send via email0

Free Agent Profiles Tampa Bay Rays Roberto Hernandez

0 comments

Free Agent Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez

By Steve Adams | September 16, 2013 at 2:34pm CDT

When the Indians sent four minor leaguers — including a pair of first-round picks in Drew Pomeranz and Alex White — to the Rockies to land Ubaldo Jimenez in July 2011, they likely pictured a controllable ace that could lead their rotation for two and a half seasons. That didn't prove to be the case off the bat, but over the past five months, Jimenez has looked every bit the part of the pitcher they were hoping to acquire.  Jimenez-Ubaldo

Jimenez has a 2.72 ERA with 150 strikeouts against 65 walks in his past 145 2/3 innings dating back to April 29, and his 43.5 percent ground-ball rate is closer to his career level than last season's surprisingly low 38.4 percent mark. Jimenez's well-timed surge has likely changed him from a one-year deal type of pitcher to a multiyear asset that many teams will covet.

Strengths/Pros

Jimenez will turn just 30 years old in January, making him one of the youngest starters available on the free agent market. Only Phil Hughes is decisively younger, while Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir are roughly the same age. Each comes with red flags, as Hughes has had a rough season and been bumped from New York's rotation, while Johnson has been injured and ineffective all season, and Kazmir comes with his a long injury history and threw only 63 big league pitches from 2011-12.

Jimenez also racks up strikeouts frequently and is doing so at the highest rate of his career in 2013 (9.1 K/9). He comes without a significant platoon split, as right-handers have a career .689 OPS against him versus .709 for left-handers. In 2013, he's actually had a slight reverse-platoon split. When Jimenez is on his game, it doesn't matter what side of the plate opposing hitters are standing on.

He's also very durable. Jimenez has started at least 31 games in each season from 2008-12 and is on pace to start at least 30 contests in 2013. Among upcoming free agents, only Bronson Arroyo and Tim Lincecum have made more starts since 2008. Arroyo is seven years older, while Lincecum hasn't recovered from his struggles and diminished velocity like Jimenez has. He's been on the disabled list just once in his career, when he missed just over two weeks with a cut on the cuticle of his right thumb — a non-concerning injury to say the very least.

Weaknesses/Cons

Even when he's at his best, Jimenez's control has never been great. He's averaged 4.1 walks per nine innings in more than 1,200 career innings, and he's twice led the league in wild pitches. His ground-ball rate exceeded 50 percent with ease early in his career, but that number has dropped in recent seasons. His 43.5 percent mark in 2013 is a step up from 2012's mark of 38.4 percent, but he's still below the league average.

Jimenez's ground-ball rate isn't the only thing that's dropping; his once blistering 96.2 mph fastball has cooled off all the way down to an average of 91.7 mph this season. It's worth noting that like his ground-ball rate, his velocity has ticked back upward late in the season. Baseball Prospectus' Ben Lindbergh recently profiled (subscription required) some mechanical changes that Jimenez made to slow down his delivery, but even if those are to credit for his turnaround, one scout told Lindbergh that Jimenez's delivery is still flawed.

Personal

Jimenez enjoys spending time with his family and is very interested in music, as he demonstrated by showing off his drum skills in a visit to the MLB Fan Cave in 2012. However, those who know him describe him as driven and passionate about the game of baseball, noting that his main focus –especially when he isn't pitching up to his capability — is delivering his best possible performance on the field.

Market

The Indians hold an $8MM option on Jimenez, but the 2011 trade triggered a clause that will allow him to void the option if he wishes. He's a virtual lock to do that, which will force the Indians to decide whether or not to extend Jimenez a qualifying offer. Cleveland, who typically operates on a tight budget, already has more than $48MM in 2014 salary commitments before arbitration raises to Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, Michael Brantley, Drew Stubbs and Vinnie Pestano. A qualifying offer of nearly $14MM would seem to be too great a risk, especially given potential in-house replacements like Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer.

The Indians may yet be interested in retaining him — they did exercise a $5.75MM club option last October in hopes of just this type of turnaround — but Jimenez will undoubtedly appeal to a number of teams. As a pitcher who has endured recent struggles, he may prefer to seek maximum security in terms of years. Teams such as the Angels, Giants, Padres, Twins, Yankees, Orioles, Pirates, Brewers and Rockies could all be on the lookout for starting pitching help this offseason.

Expected Contract

Jimenez has age and durability on his side as he heads into a free agent market that will consist of numerous teams looking to bolster their rotations. Many suitors could liken Jimenez's final five months of 2013 to his strong 2010 campaign and consider signing him an opportunity to get an ace-caliber starter at a below-market rate.

It's hard to peg someone who has had a comparable career, but Jorge De La Rosa was a similar high-strikeout, spotty command pitcher following the 2010 season when he signed a contract that guaranteed him three years and $30MM (two years, $21MM plus a $9MM player option that, if triggered, gave Colorado an $11MM club option for a fourth year). That contract is outdated, however, and De La Rosa never possessed Jimenez's durability.

If Jimenez decides he wants to risk a one-year deal in hopes of repeating 2013 and cashing in on a five-year deal at age 31, he could sign a contract in the one-year, $14MM range or simply accept a qualifying offer, should Cleveland extend one. A player with Jimenez's upside would certainly warrant $14MM on a one-year contract, however, the safer play would be for Jimenez to sign a contract in the three-year range.

Assuming he performs over the next three seasons, he could still hit the open market again heading into his age-33 season and earn another sizable contract. As a reliable innings eater with ace-caliber upside, I expect that he will sign a three-year, $39MM contract, with an outside chance that a team makes an Edwin Jackson type of offer (four years, $52MM).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 9 Retweet 18 Send via email0

Cleveland Guardians Free Agent Profiles Ubaldo Jimenez

0 comments

Free Agent Profile: Ricky Nolasco

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2013 at 12:54pm CDT

As the team most likely to take on the $5.5MM remaining on Ricky Nolasco's contract, the Dodgers were seen as the trade market frontrunners leading up to their July 6th acquisition of the pitcher from the Marlins.  The Marlins failed to receive top-tier prospects, and even threw in international pool money for the Dodgers.  None of that came as a big surprise, not just because the Marlins like to save money, but because as ESPN's Keith Law put it, Nolasco was a "durable fourth starter type" who had a 3.85 ERA at the time.

USATSI_7392406

Free agency has a large "what have you done for me lately" element, and it seems that Nolasco's 2.07 ERA in 74 innings with the Dodgers has changed the conversation about him from salary dump to coveted potential top ten free agent.

Strengths/Pros

Nolasco won't turn 31 until December.  Comparable free agents like Ervin Santana and Scott Feldman are the same age, and these pitchers are young enough to justify a three-year deal.

One of Nolasco's biggest strengths is avoiding the free pass.  Since 2011, he's walked only 2.05 batters per nine innings, which ranks 14th among starting pitchers with at least 400 innings.  Five free agent starters have done better, the youngest of whom is Dan Haren, who turns 33 next week.  On a related note, Nolasco has authored four seasons in his career with a K/BB ratio above 3.5, including this one.  Only three free agent starters have a better K/BB ratio than Nolasco this year.

Nolasco also scores points for durability, as he'll have made at least 31 regular season starts in each of the last three seasons.  Only four other free agent starters will be able to make the same claim.  Says agent Matt Sosnick, "It's been my experience that guys get paid for being healthy consistently every year."

You may not buy into it, but Sosnick will also make the claim that finally getting out of Miami rejuvenated his client's career.  Nolasco's 2.07 ERA since July 6th ranks fifth in all of baseball, putting him in company with teammates Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw and former teammate Jose Fernandez (Jarred Cosart sneaks in there as well).  Sosnick adds, "When he pitches at home in front of his family in L.A., he's basically unhittable."

One key advantage Nolasco has to a comparable free agent starter like Santana is that Nolasco is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having been traded midseason.  In December 2012, after Nolasco became the Marlins' highest-paid player following a series of trades, Sosnick told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, "If he had his druthers, he would pitch for somebody other than the Marlins in 2013 and beyond."  Opening the season with the Marlins, however, ultimately gave Nolasco's free agent value a boost, as he doesn't have to worry about having draft pick compensation attached.

Weaknesses/Cons

There is a good case to be made that Nolasco is simply a 3.80 ERA type who had a nice 12-start run.  My ERA estimator of choice, SIERA, has him at 3.71 this year, as opposed to his actual 3.14 mark.  Nolasco has allowed 8.2 hits per nine innings in 2013, after allowing 10.4 in 2011-12.  Limiting hits isn't a skill if the pitcher can't do it year in and year out, despite Sosnick's "unhittable" comment.

Nolasco's strikeout rate this year is a workable 7.3 per nine innings, but it was 6.2 per nine from 2011-12.  He's currently sporting what would be the best home run rate of his career (0.77 per nine innings), but it's owed more to only 8.8% of his flyballs leaving the yard, rather than to a more reliable higher groundball rate.  Nolasco is a flyball pitcher, and moving forward should be expected to give up more home runs and hits perhaps with a lower strikeout rate.  

As far as the "getting out of Miami" boost to Nolasco's numbers, his groundball rate is up a tick, and he's in front of a better defense.  Still, the best bet is to pay for the innings and a 3.80 ERA.

Personal

Nolasco grew up rooting for the Dodgers in Rialto, California, and described the trade as a "dream come true" in a statement.  Nolasco, whose full name is Carlos Enrique, is close with his brother Dave, a former Brewers minor league pitcher.  During the offseason, Ricky can be found in the desert almost every weekend, camping with friends and driving sand rail dune buggies.

Market

Nolasco's statement upon his trade to the Dodgers also included the line, "I couldn't be more excited to play in front of my family and friends in Dodger Stadium during the season, and hopefully for many more seasons to come."  In other words, "I'm very interested in a contract extension, by the way."  The most likely scenario has to be a contract extension with the Dodgers before Nolasco hits the open market.  Nolasco has pitched well for the Dodgers and wants to stay, and he's got an extension-friendly agent in Sosnick.  Nolasco's apparent eagerness to pitch for the Dodgers may reduce his leverage, but he has already banked about $34MM in his career, mostly from a 2010 extension with the Marlins totaling $27MM.  He definitely came out several million ahead on that deal, as the Marlins might have eventually non-tendered him otherwise.  Already having a large measure of financial security restores some of Nolasco's leverage.

If the Dodgers and Nolasco can't find common ground, perhaps he'd first turn to other California teams like the Angels and Giants.  American League teams, however, could be wary of Nolasco, as he's an NL lifer.  The Phillies and Mets may be on the lookout for starting pitching, as well as the Indians if the AL isn't an issue.  The Giants, Rockies, Rangers, Padres, and Orioles had trade interest in Nolasco during the summer.

Expected Contract

An agent recently told me he focuses much more on years than average annual value, because teams and agents generally know the likely AAV range before they even begin negotiating.  Nolasco should have no problem finding three years; the big question is whether the Dodgers or another team will offer four.  Sosnick will probably begin there, explaining why his client is on par with Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle, and one of the best in a weak market.  Jackson, Buehrle, and Nolasco are all durable 200 inning types, but Jackson hit the market at 29 and brought the allure of a 93-94 mile per hour fastball.  Buehrle was two years older than Nolasco, but also had better career numbers.  Plus, Buehrle's four-year, $58MM contract was something of a fluke — the Marlins were reportedly the only team offering the fourth year, as they were in the midst of a new ballpark spending spree.  Then again, it only takes one team to guarantee that fourth year, making the Jackson contract Nolasco's likely ceiling.

An innings guy these days will probably require an AAV in the $10-13MM range.  Ultimately I believe Nolasco will sign a three-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 4 Retweet 13 Send via email0

Free Agent Profiles Los Angeles Dodgers Ricky Nolasco

0 comments

Free Agent Profile: Omar Infante

By Tim Dierkes | September 10, 2013 at 12:10pm CDT

When you think of the ten best second basemen in the game, does the name Omar Infante spring to mind as a contender?  It should.  Infante, 32 in December, ranks eighth in FanGraphs wins above replacement by a second baseman for 2011-13.  This year, despite fewer games played than anyone ranked above him, Infante holds the seventh spot.  Among the six second basemen ranked above Infante in WAR this year, the only other free agent is Robinson Cano, who will be a consideration only for a select few ultra-rich large market teams.  If you're a GM looking to add a quality veteran free agent to solidify second base and you'd prefer not to dole out a nine-figure contract, Infante is your man.   

USATSI_7272227

Strengths/Pros

Infante doesn't strike out much, and that generally leads to solid batting averages.  He's had several seasons above .300, including this one, and hasn't hit below .271 since 2005.  

Defensively, UZR/150 considers Infante a plus.  Defensive runs saved from The Fielding Bible suggest he's a bit above-average with the glove as well.

Infante also offers versatility, as he can play third base, shortstop, and the outfield in a pinch.

Weaknesses/Cons

When he hits .300 or better, Infante's on-base percentage will be pretty good, as it is this year at .348.  However, since he generally only draws a walk in about 4% of his plate appearances these days, he's not going to be an OBP threat if he settles back into a batting average in the .270s.  Tigers manager Jim Leyland deserves credit for not confusing the ability to make contact with the ability to get on base, as he's batted Infante in the bottom third of the order more than 80% of the time this year.

Infante rates well among second basemen in slugging percentage, but that gives credit to his many singles, making it a poor choice to measure his power among his peers.  Isolated power puts him 15th among 25 second base qualifiers since 2012, in a similar range as Neil Walker and Dustin Pedroia.  Infante has a few double-digit home run seasons on his resume, but he's not a middle of the order hitter.

It would be unfair to suggest durability is a concern with Infante, who played in almost 150 games in each of the 2011 and '12 seasons.  However, a sprained ankle suffered in July this year kept Infante out for over a month, with a few setbacks during the recovery process.

Infante's stock would be hurt significantly if he receives and turns down a qualifying offer from the Tigers, which FanGraphs' Dave Cameron recommends the team makes.  Losing a potential first-round draft pick to sign Infante would severely limit his appeal, and perhaps he would be compelled to become the first player to accept a qualifying offer.  In that case Infante would earn more in 2014 than he did in the previous four years combined, but would hit the open market again after the season.

Personal

Infante, his wife Yohanna, and their four-year-old son Yomar reside in Lecheria, Venezuela during the offseason.  Omar and Yohanna have been married for over ten years.  From what we've heard, Infante is beloved by other players and coaches and is a hard worker.  He is a family man and a private person.

Market

One feasible scenario is the Tigers and Infante agreeing to a new deal before qualifying offers are due in November, or at least before the open signing period.  My guess is that the Tigers ultimately would not make Infante a qualifying offer — $14MM might be twice the average annual value Infante would get on the open market.  The Tigers don't have to decide now, and are probably keeping an open mind.  Detroit should have strong interest in retaining him, regardless.  The Yankees could be a fit for Infante if Cano signs elsewhere, while the Cubs, Orioles, Dodgers, and Royals could make sense as well.  Free agent competition is light outside of Cano, as Mark Ellis, Kelly Johnson, and Brian Roberts are the top names.  Any team that misses out on Cano could conceivably bid for Infante, should he reach the open market.

Expected Contract

Infante was represented by Alan Nero of Octagon for most of his career, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck, but Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports recently revealed the infielder switched to Gene Mato this year.  Two years ago, Infante inked a two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins in the final days of the 2011 season.  He's improved his stock drastically since then, and this offseason probably represents his one shot at a big contract.

The most relevant contract for Infante might be Marco Scutaro's three-year, $20MM deal with the Giants signed in December last year.  However, Scutaro's deal covers his age 37-39 seasons, while a three-year deal for Infante would cover his age 32-34 campaigns.  Cameron referenced Martin Prado's four-year, $40MM deal as a potential comparable.  That contract was not signed on the open market, and still included $33MM covering Prado's first three free agent years.  While there is a sabermetric case for Infante receiving a bit more than $33MM over three years, I consider that his ceiling on the open market, as Prado is younger and a better hitter (and, incidentally, the godfather to Infante's son).  My guess is that Mato will set his sights on four guaranteed years at the outset, and ultimately I peg Infante at a three-year, $25MM deal.

It should be noted that my prediction includes the assumption that Infante does not reach the open market having turned down a qualifying offer.  If he receives and rejects a qualifying offer and reaches the open market, I would knock my ceiling down to Scutaro's contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 2 Retweet 20 Send via email0

Detroit Tigers Free Agent Profiles Omar Infante

0 comments
« Previous Page
    Top Stories

    Stuart Sternberg Has Agreed To Sell Rays To Patrick Zalupski, Deal Expected To Be Final By September

    Nationals Select Eli Willits With First Pick Of 2025 Amateur Draft

    2025 MLB Draft, First Round Results

    Red Sox Place Hunter Dobbins On 15-Day IL Due To ACL Tear

    Astros Promote Brice Matthews

    Red Sox Likely To Activate Alex Bregman Tomorrow

    Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

    Yankees Prioritizing Pitching, Also Searching For Infield Help

    Orioles Trade Bryan Baker To Rays

    Yankees Release DJ LeMahieu

    Trevor Williams To Undergo UCL Surgery

    Nationals Fire PBO Mike Rizzo, Manager Dave Martinez

    Brewers Activate Brandon Woodruff

    Clarke Schmidt Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Bobby Jenks Passes Away

    Braves Release Alex Verdugo

    Top 40 Trade Candidates For The 2025 Deadline

    Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim

    Yankees Have Shown Interest In Ryan McMahon

    Royals Interested In Bryan Reynolds

    Recent

    Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

    Jim Clancy Passes Away

    Grant Hartwig Signs With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers

    Pirates Release Matt Gorski

    Twins Not Currently Discussing Joe Ryan In Trade Talks

    Kevin Herget Elects Free Agency

    Travis Jankowski Elects Free Agency

    Twins Acquire Noah Davis

    Orioles Outright David BaƱuelos

    Stuart Sternberg Has Agreed To Sell Rays To Patrick Zalupski, Deal Expected To Be Final By September

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Sandy Alcantara Rumors
    • Luis Robert Rumors
    • Alex Bregman Rumors

     

    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version