Free Agent Profiles

Free Agent Profile: Jesse Crain

By Steve Adams | October 2, 2013 at 9:15pm CDT

What was on track to be one of the best relief seasons in history was derailed when Jesse Crain hit the disabled list with a shoulder injury in early July. The 32-year-old right-hander had recently seen a streak of 29 straight scoreless appearances come to an end when he hit the DL, and while it was originally thought that he might be able to return prior to the trade deadline, he didn't throw another pitch in 2013. The Rays acquired Crain in a conditional deal at the deadline with an eye toward bolstering their bullpen down the stretch but don't have the luxury of turning to him in tonight's Wild Card playoff game against the Indians. He'll have to carry injury concerns surrounding his shoulder into free agency this offseason.

Pros/Strengths

If you're looking for strikeouts late in the game — and what team isn't? — Crain delivers. His K/9 rate jumped from 7.5 to 8.2 in his final year with the Twins, then rose to 9.6 in his first year with the White Sox and sat at 11.3 in 2012-13. Crain always had plus velocity, but his strikeouts took off when his slider usage jumped from 22 percent in 2009 to 43 percent in 2010. This year, he's scaled the usage of his slider back to around 30 percent in favor of his curveball, though PITCHf/x actually gives his curve negative value.

Since increasing his breaking ball usage in 2010, Crain has a 2.39 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate. His 3.20 FIP and 3.16 SIERA in that time are both impressive as well. Crain's 3.65 xFIP punishes him by adjusting for a league-average homer-to-flyball ratio, but he's always shown a knack for keeping the ball in the yard, as evidenced by his career 7.4 percent HR/FB ratio.

He's shown the best command of his career in 2013's brief 36 1/3 inning sample size, walking only 11 batters (2.7 per nine innings).

Crain, of course, won't be tied to a qualifying offer, so interested parties won't need to worry about forfeiting a draft pick to sign him.

Weaknesses/Cons

The obvious red flag with Crain is his health. This isn't the first season in which he's missed significant time with a shoulder injury. Crain missed most of the 2007 season thanks to a torn rotator cuff and torn labrum in his right shoulder that required surgery. He's also had DL trips related to his shoulder in 2009 and 2012.

While the command he's displayed in 2013 is a plus, it's also a pretty major outlier for his career. Crain averaged four walks per nine innings over his past 295 2/3 big league innings (five seasons) before this season, so it's fair to wonder if he can keep that number under 3.0. His pristine ERA is also obviously unsustainable, though he did manage sub-3.00 ERAs in his first two seasons with the ChiSox, so he should still be plenty effective if healthy.

Personal

Crain was a three-sport athlete in high school, playing basketball and football in addition to baseball. He and his wife Becky have three children: Hunter, Avery and Caleb. Crain is active within the community each season, particularly with military-related events, per the White Sox media guide. In 2012, he visited veterans at the Walter Reed Medical center, participated in "Lunch with the Military" as part of White Sox charity week and participated in the "True Heroes" program at U.S. Cellular Field.

Market

As is the case every offseason, there will be no shortage of teams on the lookout for bullpen help. Crain's injury should limit him to a one-year deal, which would mitigate the risk for contending teams and make him appealing to non-contenders hoping to flip him at the trade deadline. While he hasn't served as a full-time closer to this point in his career (much of which was spent behind Joe Nathan), Crain's dominant season could net him some offers to pitch the ninth inning. That method has been successfully employed by the Astros (Jose Veras) and Pirates (Jason Grilli) recently.

Expected Contract

A one-year deal would be beneficial to Crain and would also mitigate risk for a signing team that had some hesitation surrounding his shoulder. Were he to sign a one-year deal with no option and pitch well for a full season, Crain could hit free agency as a 33-year-old next season — the same age at which Joaquin Benoit inked his three-year, $16.5MM contract with Detroit. Crain already has a three-year, $13MM contract under his belt, and another three-year deal wouldn't be out of the question after a strong 2014. Barring a severe setback in his recovery, I expect Crain to sign a one-year, $3.5MM contract with incentives based on innings pitched and perhaps games finished as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

By Tim Dierkes | October 1, 2013 at 9:04pm CDT

Jarrod Saltalamacchia was one of the ten most valuable catchers in baseball in 2013, and he had the best overall year of any free agent backstop. The former first-round draft pick hits free agency with youth on his side.

Strengths/Pros

Among catchers, Salty is one of the biggest power threats in the game, ranking fifth with 55 home runs since 2011. He also ranks first in isolated power and third in slugging percentage. He put up a career-best .466 SLG this year, banging out 54 extra-base hits. A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia hit .294/.350/.523 against righties this year.

Saltalamacchia's walk rate continued to rise, as his 9.1% this year was his best since 2008. He hit a career-best .273, and coupled with the walks, his .338 on-base percentage was also his best since '08. Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Saltalamacchia's .804 OPS ranked sixth in all of baseball, even topping Brian McCann.

Salty is above average at blocking pitches, according to the RPP stat at FanGraphs. Additionally, his pitch framing skills were worth 23 runs from 2007-11, according to an article by Mike Fast for Baseball Prospectus. He's seen as the leader of the Boston pitching staff, and has their trust.

Saltalamacchia doesn't turn 29 years old until May, and is one of only a handful of free agents who will be under 30 in 2014. As agent Jim Munsey pitches Salty on the free agent market, his client's youth is a big asset compared to someone like Carlos Ruiz or A.J. Pierzynski.

Weaknesses/Cons

A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .206/.269/.338 line since 2011. In his three years with the Red Sox, they benched him against southpaws only in 2012, when Kelly Shoppach was on board for most of the season. It's likely Salty would have batted less against lefties this year had backup David Ross not spent 74 days on the DL. Many players have platoon splits, but Saltalamacchia's is more extreme than other catchers on the free agent market.

Saltalamacchia regularly strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances. Among all players with 400 plate appearances in 2013, Salty's 29.6% strikeout rate is the ninth-worst. Of those bottom nine, most hit below .235, and his .273 average does not seem repeatable. From 2011-12, Saltalamacchia hit .228/.288/.452 across 834 plate appearances, a more reasonable expectation moving forward. A .290 OBP is below-average even for a catcher; as a group, they're at .310 this year.

Saltalamacchia is below average at throwing out attempting basestealers and preventing them from trying, according to FanGraphs. His caught stealing percentage of 21.2% was second-to-last among qualified catchers this year.

Saltalamacchia earned $4.5MM this year, so a qualifying offer would triple his salary. Still, it's likely he'd decline and take his best shot at a multiyear deal elsewhere, even with the loss of leverage from having a draft pick attached. It's easy enough to justify the loss of a draft pick to sign McCann, but less so for Saltalamacchia, especially with Ruiz and Pierzynski as alternatives.

Personal

Saltalamacchia, who has the longest last name in Major League history at 14 letters, resides in Wellington, Florida with his wife Ashley and daughters Sidney, Hunter Riley, and Sloan. He received the Good Guy Award from Boston writers after the 2012 season, and serves as a Jimmy Fund co-captain as one of his many charitable contributions. Jarrod is extremely involved in charitable work, and truly enjoys it. His hobbies include hunting and fishing, according to the Red Sox media guide.

Saltalamacchia was a key figure in the legendary July 2007 trade that also sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison from the Braves to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay. Three years later, he was traded to Boston.

Market

"I don't want to go anywhere else," Saltalamacchia told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May. Given his familiarity with their pitching and coaching staff, Salty provides extra value for the Red Sox, and it seems likely they'll attempt to retain him. In the organization, the Red Sox have Blake Swihart, who finished at High-A, Christian Vazquez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, and 26-year-old Ryan Lavarnway, who has played at Triple-A in each of the last three seasons and has caught 58 games in the bigs. Lavarnway could be the immediate answer, though he slugged just .350 at Triple-A this year, and the pitching staff might not be thrilled throwing regularly to such an inexperienced catcher. Even if the Sox need to sign a veteran catcher this winter, they seem to have enough depth to limit their offer to Saltalamacchia to three years.

In my Carlos Ruiz free agent profile, I mentioned the Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves as potential fits. Saltalamacchia's struggles against left-handed pitching could give the Phillies pause, while the "bridge appears quite charred in both directions" regarding a potential return to Texas, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. It's also hard to picture a return to the Braves, who will probably piece something more affordable together assuming McCann leaves. Though the Jays could look to improve upon J.P. Arencibia, would they replace him with a different high-strikeout, potentially low-OBP catcher like Saltalamacchia, possibly at the expense of their second-round draft pick? The Yankees are a viable landing spot, though perhaps not at four years. The White Sox may be a potential dark horse, with potential platoon partners in-house in the form of Tyler Flowers and Josh Phegley. Free agent alternatives to Saltalamacchia will include McCann, Ruiz, Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro.

Expected Contract

The floor on Saltalamacchia is probably three years and $24MM or so. ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote he thinks the market will offer Saltalamacchia a four-year deal, perhaps in the range of $10MM per year. The remaining question is which team would reasonably do so. Though I've yet to identify a club I think will go four years on Saltalamacchia, I agree that he will eventually find it, and I'm predicting a four-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Ruiz

By Tim Dierkes | October 1, 2013 at 8:52am CDT

Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was a late bloomer, reaching the Majors at age 27 and eventually shaking off the backup label. He received MVP votes in 2010 and '11 and made his first All-Star team in 2012, but after the '12 season was slapped with a 25-game suspension for testing positive a second time for taking Adderall, which is used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. His 2013 season was his least productive since '08, and the man known as Chooch is heading into free agency for the first time.

Strengths/Pros

Among those who caught at least 250 games from 2010-12, Ruiz is tops in all three slash stats: batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.388), and slugging percentage (.454). Ruiz was about as good a hitter as Joe Mauer was during that time, and easily better than Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, or Matt Wieters. On a rate basis using weighted on-base average, Ruiz's offense was on par with non-catchers like Billy Butler, Nick Swisher, Carlos Beltran. He topped Ryan Zimmerman, Dustin Pedroia, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, and many other very good hitters in wOBA during that time. FanGraphs wins above replacement puts Ruiz's total 2010-12 contribution on par with Wright, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Gonzalez. Though Ruiz's work went under the radar, he was recognized with MVP votes in each of the 2010, '11, and '12 seasons.

How about 2013? Ruiz posted a .268/.320/.368 line, so even in a down year, he got on base more often than the typical catcher. And though it may be arbitrary, agent Marc Kligman can point to a more Chooch-like .288/.343/.444 line over the season's final two months. A right-handed hitter, Ruiz excelled against lefties to the tune of a .300/.374/.463 line.

Defensively, Ruiz is above average at blocking pitches, according to a stat from Bojan Koprivica.

A qualifying offer is not in the cards for Ruiz, so unlike fellow free agents Brian McCann and perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he will not cost a draft pick to sign. Ruiz is a buy-low candidate who would have required a significantly larger contract a year ago prior to the suspension coming off a great season.

Weaknesses/Cons

As mentioned earlier, Ruiz had a down year with the bat, showing below average power for a catcher and falling well below his own recent norms. Why did Ruiz's batting average, walks, and power take a dive this year? One way or another, his amphetamine suspension was a factor, most likely in that he started his season a month late without a normal spring training. It's also possible that he was affected by the pressure from his first contract year. Ruiz's relative struggles could also simply be age-related decline, as he turned 34 in January. His 16 home runs in 2012, in particular, appears to have been a fluke or at least something that will not be repeated.

On the defensive side, Ruiz cost the Phillies 23 runs from 2007-11 due to pitch framing, according to a Baseball Prospectus article by Mike Fast.

Ruiz has had a DL trip in each of the past five seasons, missing about 23 days on average. Teams will have to ask if at age 35 Ruiz will be able to play 115 games or so. A team signing Ruiz probably needs a better than average backup catcher.

Personal

Ruiz, a native of Panama, has two sons, also named Carlos. He's a family man who enjoys his horses on his ranch in his native country.

Market

Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and perhaps Dioner Navarro are the other starting catching options on the market. Pierzynski will be Ruiz's main competition, in the aging backstop bracket, and A.J. took a one-year deal last winter and may again. According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said of Ruiz, "We'd like to bring him back. He knows we'd like to bring him back." The feeling appears to be mutual, as Ruiz told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer he'd like to finish his career with the Phillies. Ruiz is a fan favorite in Philadelphia and they lack a promising alternative, especially one who can provide right-handed offense. They re-upped Chase Utley for a minimum two-year, $27MM guarantee covering his age 35-36 seasons, and Kligman could use that deal as a frame of reference. If things don't work out with the Phillies, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves could be fits for Ruiz.

Expected Contract

Ruiz signed a multiyear deal in January 2010 and ended up earning just $8.35MM for this three arbitration years. According to FanGraphs, his production from 2010-12 was worth $53.1MM. Since at least six years of Major League service is required for free agency, the timing often doesn't work well for late bloomers, and Ruiz may already be nearing the downswing of his career. Given the offense Ruiz provided as recently as 2012, he'll be a popular buy-low candidate on a one-year deal. I imagine Kligman will shake off references to Pierzynski's contract, however, initially aiming for a three-year deal. Ruiz's ceiling is probably Russell Martin's two-year, $17MM deal. Martin was coming off a better year and was five years younger, so it will be a difficult benchmark to pass. In the end I think Ruiz will sign a two-year, $14MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Napoli

By Tim Dierkes | September 30, 2013 at 4:06pm CDT

A three-year, $39MM guarantee with the Red Sox for slugger Mike Napoli was renegotiated all the way down to a one-year, $5MM contract in the course of about two months during the offseason, as a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips. The degenerative condition, which came as a surprise to Napoli, was caught early and has not affected his play to date. Napoli avoided the DL this year, earning $8MM in incentives to bring his 2013 earnings to the same $13MM average annual value from his original three-year contract. Now, he's eligible to return to the free agent market coming off a fine season.

Strengths/Pros

Napoli is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market, as he leads all qualified free agents in isolated power. He's tied for sixth among all free agents with 23 home runs and is fourth in slugging at .482, assuming Adam Lind's option is picked up. Napoli is one of just ten players to hit at least 20 home runs in each of the 2008-13 seasons.

A right-handed hitter, Napoli's on-base percentage is boosted by a strong career walk rate of 12%. This year, his .360 OBP ranks third among qualified free agents. If you're looking for offense from a right-handed hitter, Napoli is one of the best 15 bats in the game right now.

We don't take much stock in RBI here at MLBTR, but it may help Napoli's bargaining position that he ranks second among free agents with 92 knocked in. The player ranked above him, Robinson Cano, will require a much larger commitment.

Formerly a catcher, Napoli proved this year he can play an acceptable first base, logging nearly 1,100 innings at the position with strong grades from UZR/150 (+13.3) and The Fielding Bible (+10).

Napoli comes with a reputation as a winner, as this year will mark his sixth postseason out of eight total seasons. He was a big performer for the Rangers in 2011, driving in 15 runs in 17 games.

Weaknesses/Cons

While Napoli's AVN has not affected his play or caused him to miss time to date, the Red Sox were concerned enough about the condition to reduce their offer to one guaranteed year at less than 40% of the original salary. Napoli was back on the open market during the seven-plus weeks his contract was being renegotiated, and while agent Brian Grieper praised his client for his loyalty, it's likely other interested teams shared Boston's concern and didn't offer significantly more.

Napoli has proven his health to the extent possible this year by setting a career best in plate appearances with 578 in the regular season. It's difficult to project his playing time in the future, however, since he was previously a catcher and has now been diagnosed with AVN. Napoli had more than his fair share of separate injuries, with 53 DL days in '07, 32 in '08, 22 in '11, and 35 in '12. These injuries, involving his ankle, hamstring, shoulder, oblique, and quad, may have been related to time spent at catcher, but his history dates back to the minors. Any team considering a multiyear offer has to take the entire injury history into account.

Napoli struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year, worst among all qualified free agents. Mark Reynolds and Marlon Byrd are the only other two to even top 20%. Napoli's strikeouts, which have increased in the past two years, are a big reason why he's hitting .246 since 2012. Given his walk rate, it still makes for a strong OBP, but if he bats .240 and walks dip to his 2009-10 level, his OBP will no longer be an asset. Additionally, as you would expect from a former catcher, Napoli's baserunning is below average.

I mentioned earlier that Napoli leads all free agents in isolated power, but his .223 mark is actually his worst since 2009. Given his previous production and career high in plate appearances, I would have expected Napoli to have over 30 home runs at this point rather than 23.

The Rangers chose not to tender Napoli a $13.3MM qualifying offer after the 2012 season, but with a healthier campign and their recent preference for short-term deals, the Red Sox are likely to make the $14MM qualifying offer five days after the World Series ends. Napoli is the type of player the system hurts the most: one who is good but not great, and doesn't have the youth of a B.J. Upton. With the cost of a first or even second round draft pick, a few teams could lose interest in Napoli.

Personal

Mike resides in Pembroke Pines, Florida. He values time with his family, and even has his mother's name, Donna Rose, tattooed on his arm. Mike is a big fan of the NFL and college football, particularly the University of Miami.

Market

It would be reasonable for the Red Sox to try to bring Napoli back, and a qualifying offer or the threat of one gives them some leverage. We've seen them tangle with David Ortiz in this type of situation, with Ortiz accepting arbitration after the 2011 season and getting a two-year deal done last November with a qualifying offer in hand, before hitting the open market. The Red Sox were willing to offer Napoli three years and $39MM to sign him off the open market last winter before the AVN revelation, but they honed in on him, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Stephen Drew in part they would not cost a draft pick. The Sox liked the two-year, $26MM price enough on Ortiz to forgo the chance at draft pick compensation for him, and I wonder if two years might be their limit on Napoli. On the other hand, they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

Draft pick compensation will affect Napoli on the open market if he turns down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. Still, teams like the Twins, Rockies, and Mets, with protected first round draft picks and openings at first base, seem like good fits. Napoli has the advantage of a very weak free agent market for first basemen. Kendrys Morales is more of a DH, and could be dragging around a qualifying offer as well. Otherwise the options are Corey Hart, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and Paul Konerko. As one commenter notes below, the wild card in the first base market is Jose Dariel Abreu, the Cuban slugger in whom the Red Sox may have interest.

Expected Contract

I think a qualifying offer can knock a year off a player's contract, as it seemingly did with Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, so two years and $28MM is the floor for Napoli. Ultimately I predict Napoli will land a three-year, $42MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Hiroki Kuroda

By Steve Adams | September 28, 2013 at 4:25pm CDT

There are exceptions to almost every rule, and Hiroki Kuroda appears to be one of the exceptions to pitcher aging curves. At 38 years old, he's essentially having the same season he had as a 37-year-old, and the transition from the National League to the American League at age 37 barely fazed him. Kuroda will enter free agency as one of the most talented pitchers on the market.

Strengths/Pros

Kuroda is a ground-ball pitcher with plus command who misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. His career ground-ball rate is 49 percent, and he's at 46.9 percent in 2013. Only once has he turned in a ground-ball rate lower than the league average. He's adopted a sinker and two-seamer increasingly over the past few seasons as opposed to throwing a straight four-seam fastball.

Kuroda has averaged just 2.1 walks per nine innings in his career, and that figure has actually improved with each season in the American League despite the fact that he's facing designated hitters instead of pitchers. In terms of strikeouts, his 6.7 K/9 rate is below the league average but his 9.9 percent swinging-strike rate is above the league average. Kuroda appears to be a guy who can get strikeouts when he needs them but is content to trust his defense instead of punching out every hitter he faces.

As such, he's able to work deep into games. Kuroda has averaged at least 6 1/3 innings per start in each of the past three seasons. He averages 203 innings per season and should top 200 innings once again in 2013. He also won't require the long-term risk associated with top free agent starters like Matt Garza and Masahiro Tanaka.

Weaknesses/Cons

Kuroda does appear to be an exception, but history has conditioned us to believe that eventually, the bottom will drop out for a pitcher. Kuroda has been remarkably durable and effective in the AL East in his late 30s, but he will pitch next season at 39. Teams will be wary of his age, and his fastball velocity has declined slightly in each of the past three seasons.

The second half of the season also hasn't been kind to Kuroda. After a brilliant 2.65 ERA in 118 1/3 first-half innings, he's registered a more pedestrian 3.97 ERA following the All-Star break. It's fair to point out that his second-half struggles are likely tied to a bloated second-half BABIP, but that number is in part attributable to an increase in his line-drive rate in the second half.

Kuroda is also a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees, which would put him in an undesirable situation. Teams showed great reluctance to part with draft picks for players on multiyear commitments last offseason. Would a team really be OK parting with a first-round pick for what will likely be a one-year deal for a 39-year-old pitcher?

Personal

Kuroda and his wife, Masayo, have two daughters: Hinatsu and Wakana. Kuroda's family currently resides in southern California. He is considered to be one of the hardest working players in Major League Baseball, in part due to the unthinkable disciplinary tactics he was subjected to in high school and college baseball in Japan (as profiled in this 2012 piece from David Waldstein of the New York Times). Kuroda's father, Kazuhiro, was a professional outfielder in Japan, playing for the franchise that is now the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Market

Kuroda has said that he hasn't determined whether or not he'll pitch again in 2014, and even if he does return, it could be to his native Japan. For the purposes of this post, however, I'm operating under the assumption that he does return to the Majors for his age-39 campaign.

Kuroda could simply accept a qualifying offer from the Yankees, though doing so would mean giving the team a slight discount and taking an undeserved pay cut. He could also reject a qualifying offer and re-sign with the Yankees for a slight raise — perhaps $16MM or so — as he and agent Steve Hilliard of Octagon elected to do last season.

Kuroda also weighed a return to Japan last offseason and reportedly would have been happy to pitch in southern California where his daughters live and attend school. His preference does seem to be to pitch on a coast. Because a one-year deal is likely and he's coming off such a strong season, Kuroda seems highly likely to end up on a contending team.

Expected Contract

Kuroda will be one of the best free agent starters on the market and also the oldest. Another one-year deal seems likely if he is to return to Major League Baseball. He rejected a qualifying offer following last season, and it seems unlikely that he would accept one this offseason when it would mean taking a pay cut. As such, I expect Kuroda to reject a qualifying offer and ink a one-year deal worth $16MM, earning a slight raise from his 2013 salary following another strong year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: A.J. Pierzynski

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2013 at 2:29pm CDT

A.J. Pierzynski cashed in on a surprising career year with the White Sox at age 35 to sign a one-year, $7.5MM contract with the Rangers that paid him nearly as much in one season as he'd earned via his previous two-year, $8MM contract. Pierzynski's contract was a straight one-year deal without any kind of option, so he'll hit the free agent market once again after another season of plus power behind the plate.

Strengths/Pros

The only catcher in all of baseball with more home runs between the 2012-13 seasons than Pierzynski is Colorado's Wilin Rosario, and he's not hitting the free agent market for another four years. If you're looking for a power-hitting backstop, Pierzynski is only rivaled by Brian McCann, but he won't require the lengthy multiyear commtiment that McCann will.

He's also more durable than McCann, and just about every other catcher in baseball for that matter. Pierzynski has averaged more than 130 games per season dating back to 2001 — a staggering testament to his durability. In fact, Pierzynski already ranks 19th all-time in baseball among games as a catcher, and he leads the next-closest active player, Ramon Hernandez, by more than 200 contests. He's spent a total of 35 days on the disabled list over the past decade.

Pierzynski is hitting .273/.296/.428 with 17 homers this year. He topped his previous career-high of 18 homers when he belted 27 last season, and his 17 bombs this year suggest that there's still plenty of power in the tank. He doesn't strike out that often either, as his 14.2 percent strikeout rate and 83 percent contact rate are both better than the league average.

Weaknesses/Cons

Pierzynski has never been one to draw many walks, but his 2.1 percent walk rate in 2013 is the lowest of his career. It's also the lowest among qualified Major League hitters. If Pierzynski gets on base, it's almost always going to come via base hit. When he's on base, it should come as no surprise that he's a slow runner that will clog the basepaths to an extent.

His durability is one of his greatest strengths, but it also causes concern. Pierzynski will turn 37 years old in December, and at some point, conventional wisdom suggests that the sheer bulk of innings he's spent behind the dish is going to catch up to him. Some might look at his second-half swoon in 2013 and think that it's already happening, though there's not necessarily any evidence to suggest that's the case. Still, Pierzynski has followed up a strong .284/.317/.448 first half with a .260/.272/.405 second half.

Personal

Pierzynski and his wife Lisa have two children: Ava and Austin. He is active within the community and was named one of the 25 "Heroes of Hope" by the Illinois chapter of the Make-A-Wish Foundation — an organization with which he has been very active. Pierzynski's reputation is well-known; he is often booed by fans and has been voted the "meanest" player in baseball in a poll of 215 players conducted by Sports Illustrated. His teammates, however, will tell a different tale. "Until you play with him, you have a misperception of what he is," former White Sox teammate J.J. Putz told SI's Ben Reiter last year. Putz, Adam Dunn, David Ortiz and Chris Sale are among the former teammates who defend Pierzynski to Reiter, with Sale flatly stating that he never once shook off a pitch selection from his former catcher.

Market

Catching is as scarce a commodity as there is in baseball, and Pierzynski's durability and power will drum up plenty of interest despite his age and declining on-base skills. He makes his offseason home near Orlando, so it's possible that he'd prefer a team in the southeast portion of the country, though that's admittedly my speculation and hasn't dictated where he's signed in previous years.

He's still a clear starting catcher and will likely be compensated as such, but he and agent Steve Hilliard of Octagon might be wise to wait until bigger fish like McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are off the market. At that point, Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz will be the top options remaining. And while Ruiz had a strong track record from 2010-12, he's fallen well short of that pace and been outperformed by Pierzynski in 2013.

Expected Contract

Pierzynski took a one-year deal coming off a career year last offseason. It's hard to imagine him now getting multiple years when he's a year older and coming off a less productive (but still solid) offensive campaign. Another one-year deal looks to be in the cards for Pierzynski, probably at a lesser rate due to the decline in homers and OBP. While a two-year deal can't be entirely ruled out simply due to the dearth of quality catchers in the game, I expect Pierzynski to sign a one-year, $6.5MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Nate McLouth

By Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2013 at 8:25pm CDT

Outfielder Nate McLouth signed a one-year, $1.75MM deal to return to the Pirates in December 2011, with a fourth outfielder role in mind after several years of struggles in Atlanta. He hit a low point at the end of May last year, as the Bucs released him. McLouth quickly signed a minor league deal with the Orioles, and played 47 games for their Triple-A affiliate before earning a call back to the bigs. At just 236 plate appearances, the sample was limited, but McLouth helped the Orioles reach the postseason and was their best hitter in the division series.

McLouth focused on a one-year deal on the free agent market, avoiding an option year but re-signing with the Orioles for just $2MM plus incentives. He's served as the team's primary left fielder and leadoff hitter in 2013, and has put together a solid campaign over a larger sample.

Strengths/Pros

McLouth is respectable at drawing walks, with a 9% rate this year that is a tick above average for a left fielder. This year it has led to a .332 on-base percentage, also better than average for the position. A left-handed hitter, McLouth hit righties pretty well this year at a .275/.346/.416 clip.

McLouth also adds value on the basepaths. He has an 84.9% career success rate in stolen bases, and is tied for ninth in the AL with 30 swipes this year. Among those with at least 800 plate appearances and 30 stolen base attempts since 2012, McLouth's 84% success rate ranks ninth in baseball. More importantly, FanGraphs' baserunning statistics, which cover more than just steals, suggest McLouth has added 6.2 runs on the bases this year. That's tied for the 11th-best baserunning contribution in the game this year.

McLouth has spent most of his time in left field the last two years, but he can handle center in a pinch and even won a somewhat controversial Gold Glove for his play there in 2008.

Overall this year, FanGraphs pegs McLouth at 2.4 wins above replacement. That's fifth among free agent outfielders, assuming Coco Crisp's option will be exercised. McLouth is earning about 15% of Carlos Beltran's salary, but if you agree with the penalty given to Beltran by defensive stats, the two players have been roughly equally valuable in 2013. The free agent market still veers toward baseball card numbers, so Beltran's 24 home runs and 84 RBI will serve him well and could result in a qualifying offer. McLouth's value is less obvious, creating a potential free agent bargain even with a raise. And a qualifying offer will not be a factor.

Weaknesses/Cons

McLouth does not hit left-handed pitching well, with a .196/.287/.304 line since 2011. The Orioles have benched him accordingly against some southpaws, so he's faced lefties in only 21.7% of his plate appearances this year rather than the typical 26-30%. A team signing McLouth will need to have a right-handed hitting left fielder on hand as a platoon partner.

McLouth should be used sparingly in center field, as his defensive numbers suggest he's well below average at the position. The average left fielder has a weighted on-base average of .317 this year, not far from McLouth's .325. He has a little bit of pop, but doesn't fit the power profile of a left fielder. A team might have to find power at an atypical position to compensate.

McLouth has been worth more than two wins above replacement this year, the first time he's been worth even one full win in a season since 2009. His sample as a productive outfielder has grown, but he has to shake off an even larger sample of being replacement level. And this may be cherry-picking, but since a huge April, McLouth has hit just .245/.309/.382.

Personal

Born in Michigan, Nate resides with his wife Lindsay in Knoxville, Tennessee. McLouth is a deeply religious person who has overcome adversity in his career, as explained in this article a year ago by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.

Market

The Orioles aren't brimming with alternatives to replace McLouth, and will have to turn to the free agent and trade markets if they don't re-sign him. Nolan Reimold has been hampered by injuries for two years, and may be non-tendered. Prospects L.J. Hoes and Xavier Avery were traded this summer, leaving Henry Urrutia as the main internal option. Since McLouth could assume more of an above-average, oft-used fourth outfielder role, he could boost the depth of many clubs.

Expected Contract

As a short-side platoon bat with little defensive ability, Jonny Gomes set the bar last winter with a two-year, $10MM deal. Part-timers such as Scott Hairston, Ty Wigginton, and Jack Hannahan also received two years. Another good example is David DeJesus, who was signed to a two-year, $10MM deal with a club option by the Cubs as an outfielder who would be benched against many southpaws. Ultimately I think McLouth will land that same two-year, $10MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Brian McCann

By Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2013 at 7:47am CDT

If you're looking for a power-hitting catcher, there's no better choice than Brian McCann. McCann has played eight full seasons in the Majors, ranking worse than third in home runs at the position only one time. He's averaged 21 bombs per year, and he has 20 this year even though his season didn't begin until May.

Strengths/Pros

McCann is a bona fide middle of the order bat, at a position for which a .246/.311/.390 line qualifies as average. His career batting line is .277/.350/.474, which is not far from what he's accomplished in 2013. Along with the big-time power, McCann can also draw a walk, with a career rate of 9.5%.

How many free agents will hit the market coming off a 20 home run campaign? Assuming club options are picked up on Coco Crisp and Adam Lind, just 11 players including McCann will manage the feat. Of those 11, only McCann and Robinson Cano play an up-the-middle position, if we don't consider Shin-Soo Choo a center fielder. Like Cano, McCann provides offense at a position not known for it.

McCann won't turn 30 until February, so he's the youngest prominent free agent bat.

Defensively, FanGraphs has numbers calculated by The Fielding Bible, as well as Hardball Times contributor Bojan Koprivica, suggesting McCann is about league average at throwing out potential base stealers and preventing them from trying, and he is above average at blocking pitches. McCann appears to add significant value by virtue of his pitch framing ability. In May, Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus wrote, "McCann’s framing skill has saved the Braves almost 125 runs over the past five seasons." McCann's ability to handle a pitching staff is hard to quantify, but reports are positive.

Weaknesses/Cons

The big concern heading into this season was McCann's shoulder. He played through shoulder pain in 2012, receiving cortisone shots in August and September. McCann had surgery in October to repair a torn labrum, and the Braves had enough faith to pick up his $12MM option for 2013 a few days later. He made his season debut on May 6th and would hit six home runs that month. McCann's continued health and strong play seems to have quieted concerns about the shoulder, as he garnered his seventh All-Star nod this year.

A left-handed hitter, McCann hasn't done much against southpaws recently. Since 2012, he's batting .234/.271/.379 against lefties.

McCann has caught over 8,800 regular season innings in his career, and caution is required when throwing big money at a catcher in his 30s. Former Marlins catcher Charles Johnson rates high on McCann's list of Baseball Reference comparables, and Johnson also caught over 7,000 innings before age 30. Once he reached 30, Johnson had only 300 games left in the Majors. Johnson did not have the luxury of the designated hitter, as McCann might, but the offensive bar to be an above average DH or first baseman is higher than at catcher. McCann's market won't be limited to American League teams, but he'll be a much easier sell if DH is an option in the latter part of the contract.

McCann is likely to receive and turn down a qualifying offer, in which case he will come with the added cost of a first or second round draft pick.

Personal

Brian married his high school sweetheart Ashley, and they reside in Suwanee, Georgia with their son and new baby girl. Brian is known as a family man. The family supports the Rally Foundation, which aims to find better treatments of childhood cancer. Brian's older brother Brad reached Double-A in the Marlins organization, and their father, Howard, coached baseball at Marshall University. In the clubhouse, Brian is a team leader who is beloved by teammates and fans.

Market

There is sentiment among baseball executives and agents that McCann will be best served going to the American League, allowing him to spend an increasing number of games at designated hitter as the contract progresses. On the other hand, free agent signings are about short-term gain, and McCann is a capable backstop at present. For NL teams, there's always the option of McCann learning first base if catching becomes untenable. I imagine an NL team would seek a shorter term at a higher average annual value.

The Rangers have tried to acquire McCann via trade in the past, and they're the early speculative favorite. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Phillies, and Dodgers also seem like viable options.

What are the odds McCann signs a new deal with his hometown Braves, the only organization he's ever known? If the slugger tells agent B.B. Abbott to get him the best possible contract, I think he's likely to move on.

In terms of other starting catchers on the free agent market, there's Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz, and maybe Dioner Navarro. That's actually a better selection than in recent years. As far as power bats in general, there's Cano, Nelson Cruz, Mike Napoli, Marlon Byrd, Raul Ibanez, Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson, Kendrys Morales, and Choo.

Expected Contract

It's difficult to determine whether McCann will get a fifth guaranteed year. In recent offseasons, position players B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and Carl Crawford managed the feat. None of those players are catchers, nor is McCann a superstar like some of them were. A team could plan to move him off catcher at the tail end of the deal, but the wear of nearly 9,000 innings behind the dish has already been exacted on McCann's body, and raises durability questions for the future.

The Werth contract aside, I think a fair average annual value for a very good player who is not a superstar is around $16-17MM. Ultimately I expect McCann to sign a five-year, $80MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Maholm

By Tim Dierkes | September 23, 2013 at 3:36pm CDT

April seems like ages ago. Braves lefty Paul Maholm was unscored upon in his first three starts that month to kick off the season, at which point I noted that a 3.90 ERA moving forward would put him at 3.50 overall, and position him for a three-year deal even after declining a qualifying offer. Maholm, however, posted a 5.16 ERA over his next 22 starts, suppressing optimism for his first big free agent payday.

Strengths/Pros

At times, Maholm has shown the ability to rack up around 190 innings with an ERA under 4.00. That has real value, and aside from handedness, Maholm's profile isn't drastically different from that of Scott Feldman. And if certain teams are focused on southpaw starters this winter, Maholm is right near the top of the free agent list.

One of Maholm's greatest attributes is his ability to generate groundballs. His 51.8% groundball rate this year ranks sixth among free agent starters with at least 100 innings. On a related note, the lefty has been respectable at keeping the ball in the yard, with a 0.81 HR/9 since 2008 and nothing higher than this year's 0.99 in that span.

Maholm has been very good against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .219/.287/.317 line in his career. His peripherals against them are sparkling: 8.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9, and a 3.21 xFIP.

A qualifying offer from the Braves is not expected, so Maholm should not come with draft pick compensation attached.

Weaknesses/Cons

Maholm is a pitch-to-contact type, with a career strikeout rate of 5.7 per nine innings. He's allowed ten hits or more per nine innings in numerous seasons, including this one. SIERA suggests an ERA in the low to mid-4.00s is a reasonable expectation. Perhaps due to the vagaries of batting average on balls in play, Maholm has three seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and two with an ERA over 5.00, out of eight total. Putting a good defense behind him is key.

Upside is limited with Maholm. If all goes well, you'll get 190 innings with an ERA a touch under 4.00, but there is some downside on the other end. Maholm's ERA is up to 4.44 at the moment, but perhaps some of his July struggles can be attributed to trying to pitch through a seemingly minor injury.

Can Maholm be considered an innings guy? He'll finish with around 152 this year, and had an abbreviated contract year in 2011 as well with 162 1/3. Other times, Maholm has reached the 180-200 range expected of a starter signed to eat innings, including 189 in 2012. This year, a left wrist injury suffered on a swing cost him a month, and he also missed one start in September with elbow soreness. The elbow MRI showed no structural damage, but agent Bo McKinnis will still have to explain that to interested parties this winter. Back in '11, Maholm's season ended on August 17th due to a shoulder strain, limiting free agent interest. This year's injuries have been more minor, plus Maholm has the opportunity to finish the regular season on a healthy note on Wednesday against the Brewers.

Personal

Maholm lives with his wife Jessica and son Wyatt in Hattiesburg, Mississippi during the offseason, according to the Braves media guide, and he grew up a Braves fan. Paul was in the prestigious PGA Golf Management Program at Mississippi State University, the only major that requires a certain golf handicap.

Market

Perhaps Maholm will first explore the idea of remaining with the Braves, who also have Tim Hudson eligible for free agency. The Braves have the pitchers to fill out a young rotation without either veteran, but with uncertainty around Brandon Beachy's elbow, it would be wise to sign at least one veteran hurler. Given Hudson's tenure with the Braves, it seems likely they would address his situation first. The two contracts Maholm has signed have been with Midwest teams, the Pirates and Cubs, so perhaps he'll turn to the NL Central again if the Braves don't work out.

Expected Contract

After the 2011 season, I considered Maholm the ninth-best free agent starter, and expected him to land a multiyear deal despite his season ending early due to a shoulder strain. His first free agent experience lasted until January 10th, however, and he received just a one-year, $4.75MM guarantee from the Cubs, with a club option. A club option is never ideal for the player, and the Braves picked up Maholm's for 2013 after he finished one of his finest seasons. Even though the 2011 shoulder injury didn't linger for Maholm beyond that season, finishing on the DL really hurts a pitcher's market, and he won't have to deal with that this time.

While I once thought Maholm was a good bet for three guaranteed years, that seems unlikely now. As I've mentioned before, the bar for a two-year contract for a starting pitcher is pretty low, with recent examples like Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Carlos Villanueva, and Kevin Correia. MLBTR's Steve Adams has pointed out the importance of timing, as the two-year offers tend to dry up come January. Last offseason, Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Brett Myers were left standing without a multiyear chair, as Maholm was two winters ago. Though the top end of the free agent market for starters is weak this offseason, there are plenty of hurlers in Maholm's class, such as Feldman, Jason Vargas, Roberto Hernandez, Phil Hughes, Chris Capuano, Jason Hammel, and Saunders.

While Maholm could reach as high as two years and $14MM, ultimately I think the southpaw will sign a one-year, $7MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Curtis Granderson

By Steve Adams | September 23, 2013 at 12:18pm CDT

A pair of broken bones isn't something any impending free agent wants to endure in a contract year, but that's what Curtis Granderson is attempting to overcome. After a pair of 40-homer campaigns from 2011-12, Granderson was hit by a pitch in his first Spring Training plate appearance in 2013. X-rays would reveal a fractured forearm that wound up causing the Grandy Man to sit out the first six weeks of the year.

As if that wasn't enough poor luck for the former Tiger, he was struck in the left hand by a pitch from Rays reliever Cesar Ramos on May 24 in just his eighth game of the season. Granderson stayed in the game briefly, but that would be his last contest until Aug. 2, as he had suffered a broken metacarpal that required surgery. After missing about two-thirds of the season, Granderson will hit the open market as a free agent.

Strengths/Pros

The first thing that comes to mind with Granderson is power. After averaging 24 homers per season from 2006-10, Granderson exploded with a 41-homer campaign in his second season with the Yankees. He followed that up with 43 long balls in 2012. While many will point to Yankee Stadium as the reason for his surge in power, it wasn't all the ballpark. Granderson belted 47 homers at Yankee Stadium in 2011-12 but still went deep 37 times on the road. No one in baseball had more home runs from 2011-12 than Granderson, and his 30 homers against lefties in that span were also the most in baseball.

He's capable of playing all three outfield positions as a result of his good speed, though advanced defensive metrics soured on him in 2012. UZR and The Fielding Bible both like his glove-work in this season's limited sample size, however, and he grades out as a positive defender for his career per both metrics.

That speed also comes through on the basepaths. Granderson is still a threat for double-digit stolen bases. He's swiped seven bags in 55 games this season and is just stole 25 as recently as 2011. According to Fangraphs, he's never had a full season in which his baserunning has cost his team runs, and he's been worth 28 runs above average on the basepaths over the course of his career (he's at +1.3 this season).

Granderson is also patient; he's walked in 11 percent of his plate appearances dating back to the 2008 season. His blend of patience and power allows a manager to bat him anywhere in the lineup. While he's missed time with injury this season, both were freak accidents. From 2006-12, Granderson was a picture of durability, averaging 153 games per season.

Weaknesses/Cons

Granderson hit .302 in 2007 and backed it up with a .280 season, but don't confuse him for a player that's going to hit for a high average. From 2009-13, Granderson has batted .247 due to a strikeout rate that has continued to rise. At this point, it's fair to expect him to whiff in roughly a quarter of his trips to the plate.

His best year at the plate came in 2011, when Granderson was able to post an OPS north of .900 against both lefties and righties, but he's often struggled to hit for average and get on base against left-handed pitching. In 2012, Granderson hit just .218/.304/.458 against southpaws. He's been better in a small sample size this season, but he's never shown a prolonged ability to hit lefties over multiple seasons.

Granderson is also on the wrong side of his prime. He'll turn 33 next March, so any team that pays him on a multi-year deal could fall victim to the dreaded "pay for the prime, get the decline" scenario. His isolated power peaked at .290 in 2011, dropped to .260 last season and is currently at .188. That's still a strong number but could be a portent for a power outage in the near future.

Personal

Granderson has a big personality and is friendly toward fans, teammates and the media. His parents are both retired teachers, which is one of the reasons that he is so dedicated to education. Granderson finished the final two years of his degree from the University of Illinois-Chicago while playing in the Tigers organization. He also founded the Grand Kids Foundation in 2008 — a foundation aimed to increase educational and youth baseball opportunities for inner-city children. He's very active elsewhere within the community as well, having participated in programs such as Play Baseball Detroit and Tigers Dreams Come True. He is widely regarded as one of the most amiable players in the game.

Market

Granderson's track record is strong enough that he will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and he has a case for a multiyear deal elsewhere even if he rejects that offer. His power and magnetic personality will appeal to all teams, and the latter will be particularly appealing to large market teams with aggressive media. Granderson is a native of the Chicago area and has enjoyed his time in New York, though he hasn't necessarily indicated a geographic preference.

Granderson will be competing with the likes of Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence this offseason, each of whom is younger and coming off a career year in a full, healthy season.

Expected Contract

It's tough to pin down Granderson's free agent value. Had he enjoyed a healthy season similar to 2011-12, he'd be in line for at least a four-year deal. Agent Matt Brown of Pro Prospects Inc. can emphasize the point that his two injuries were freak accidents, but teams won't simply ignore the fact that Granderson will end up having played in roughly 60 games this season.

It only takes one team to push him to a four-year guarantee, so it's not out of the question. Any team that is willing to guarantee a fourth year and sign him for Nick Swisher money — four years and $56MM — would likely be able to land Granderson. However, I'm predicting that Granderson will sign a three-year, $45MM contract this offseason, perhaps with an option that could bring him to that fourth year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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