AL West Rumors: Mariners, Ohtani, Ichiro, Astros, Bush, Melvin, Maxwell
Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto acknowledged to reporters at the GM Meetings that his club has interest in right-hander Shohei Ohtani, though like other GMs, his comments were mostly vague (link via Greg Johns and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). “We, like 29 other clubs, have scouted him extensively,” said Dipoto. (Johns and Frisaro note that Dipoto and VP of scouting Tom Allison watched Ohtani pitch in Japan this past September.) “…He’s obviously an incredibly talented player and whoever gets him will be quite happy, I’m sure.” Dipoto wouldn’t comment on whether the team is giving serious consideration to a reunion with Ichiro Suzuki, who is now a free agent. While Dipoto suggested that Ichiro’s free agency “opens a door,” he went on to add that he’s “not entirely sure” it’d be a priority, given the team’s needs at first base, in center field and on the pitching staff.
More from the division…
- Fresh off a World Series victory, the Astros would like to supplement their bullpen with a left-handed reliever, reports Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. Kaplan lists Mike Minor and Jake McGee as two potential targets for the ‘Stros, noting that Minor’s frequent outings of more than one inning in 2017 could appeal to Houston. So, too, could the fact that he thrived in his limited time as a closer and has no discernible platoon split, thus giving Houston a possible safety net in the event that Ken Giles‘ struggles carry over into the 2018 season.
- The Rangers will let right-hander Matt Bush spend the offseason preparing for a potential rotation spot in 2018, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Bush, who had shoulder surgery last month but is expected to be ready for Spring Training, turned in strong numbers as a reliever for the Rangers in each of the past two seasons. Overall, he’s worked to a 3.08 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 with 0.87 HR/9 in 114 innings. The Rangers won’t make a definitive decision on his role for another couple of months, however, Grant adds, which could indicate that Bush’s fate will be somewhat determined by the other additions GM Jon Daniels and his staff are (or aren’t) able to make this offseason.
- The Yankees asked the Athletics for permission to interview manager Bob Melvin for their own managerial opening but were rebuffed, reports Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that GM David Forst on Monday called Melvin “absolutely the right guy” to be guiding the Athletics’ rising core of young position players. Forst suggested to reporters that the A’s will look to bolster the bullpen and to add a right-handed-hitting corner outfield bat this offseason, noting that a rotation upgrade is a possibility but “not a priority,” Shea continues.
- Athletics catcher Bruce Maxwell plead not guilty to assault and disorderly conduct charges on Tuesday, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Maxwell was arrested on Oct. 28 and charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon and disorderly conduct after allegedly waving a gun at a Postmates employee that was making a delivery to his house, per Slusser. There’s no trial date set for now, and a hearing wouldn’t come until sometime in early 2018. MLB will conduct an investigation into the matter, but no announcement of any discipline would come until after a hearing (or a theoretical settlement).
Orioles Willing To Entertain Offers On Zach Britton
The Orioles are willing to listen to trade scenarios involving closer Zach Britton, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. While prior signals were that the organization would hold on to the southpaw this winter, it seems there’s now at least some possibility of a swap coming together.
Baltimore engaged in chatter involving Britton last summer and nearly dealt him to the Astros. But talks sputtered at the last minute and he ended up remaining on hand. MLBTR projects that Britton will earn a hefty $12.2MM in arbitration.
As Heyman notes, the O’s could find it advantageous to reallocate that payroll space to a rotation that’s badly in need of attention. Plus, with Britton slated for free agency after the season, this would be an opportune time to cash him in for young talent.
Houston is not presently among the organizations engaged on Britton, per the report. But the Dodgers and Cubs have already engaged in some chatter surrounding the 29-year-old hurler.
It remains unclear just how strong the market will be for Britton. Prior to the 2017 season, he had established himself as one of the game’s most dominant relievers. But the campaign didn’t quite go as hoped, as he fell short of his own lofty standards while dealing with elbow issues.
Britton ended the year with 37 1/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball, posting 7.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 while inducing grounders on more than 70% of the balls put in play against him for the fourth-straight season. While his swinging-strike rate dropped off to 11.5% after topping out at 17.2% in 2016, Britton kept his monster sinker at over 96 mph and was obviously still able to use it to draw quite a few worm-burners.
Carlos Beltran Announces Retirement
Carlos Beltran will retire after spending parts of 20 seasons in the Majors, he announced today via The Players’ Tribune. The former AL Rookie of the Year and nine-time All-Star won his first World Series championship with the Astros in 2017 and will end a likely Hall of Fame career on that high note.
Beltran made his Major League debut at the age of 21 with the Royals in 1998 and made a strong first impression in a small sample of 14 games. He burst onto the scene a year later with a .293/.337/454 batting line, 22 homers, 108 RBIs and 112 runs scored en route to American League Rookie of the Year honors. A knee injury limited Beltran to just 98 games in 2000, but he cemented himself as one of the game’s top young stars with a brilliant, healthy campaign in 2001.
Beltran remained in Kansas City until the 2004 season when the Royals sent him to the Astros in a three-team trade that netted them Mark Teahen and John Buck. Beltran, who had earned his first career All-Star nod that season, starred for the ‘Stros down the stretch before delivering one of the most incredible postseason performances in MLB history that year. Houston topped Atlanta in the NLDS and took the Cardinals to Game 7 of the NLCS, and in those 12 games Beltran put the Astros’ offense on his back; in 56 trips to the plate, he batted a ridiculous .435/.526/1.022 with eight home runs, three doubles, 21 runs scored and 14 RBIs.
That offseason, Beltran inked a seven-year, $119MM contract with the Mets — the largest in franchise history at the time — where he continued to build on his Cooperstown resume. Beltran made the All-Star team in each of his first three seasons with the Mets (and five of his seven overall), and he turned in yet another memorable playoff performance in 2006. While many remember Beltran being frozen at the hands of an Adam Wainwright curveball to close out Game 7 of that NLCS, Beltran’s greater contributions to that outstanding series came in the the form of a 1.054 OPS and three homers in just 31 plate appearances. Overall, he batted .280/.369/.500 in six and a half seasons with the Mets before being traded to the Giants in exchange for Zack Wheeler.
Beltran went on to sign a two-year, $26MM contract with the Cardinals that offseason, making two more All-Star teams and two more excellent postseason appearances. He parlayed his .282/.343/.493 triple slash in two St. Louis seasons into a three-year, $45MM contract with the Yankees. With the Yankees, he received one final All-Star nod (in 2016) and appeared in the 2015 Wild Card game before being flipped to the Rangers a 2016 trade that sent former first-rounder Dillon Tate to New York. Beltran remained an above-average hitter all the way through that run in Texas, hitting a combined .271/.327/.468 over the life of that three-year deal.
The 2017 season was Beltran’s least-productive offensive campaign since that injury-shortened 2000 season, but he still clocked 14 home runs in 509 plate appearances and served as a leader and mentor for much of Houston’s impressive young core. While Beltran served as the postseason engine on many of his teams during his peak years, he played the role of a vocal leader and wise elder statesman in his final postseason run. An emotional Beltran dedicated his team’s World Series victory to his hurricane-ravaged home island of Puerto Rico and to the city of Houston, which was also devastated by Hurricane Harvey earlier this year
Beltran and his wife, Jessica, started a fund to aid in Puerto Rico’s recovery and made an initial donation of $1MM, and he also founded the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico back in 2011 — a bilingual high school emphasizing education in addition to athletics.
All told, Beltran’s remarkable career will come to a close with a lifetime .279/.350/.486 batting line, 435 home runs, 1582 runs scored, 1587 RBIs, 312 stolen bases, nine All-Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers, a Rookie of the Year trophy and a World Series ring. In addition to a superlative body of work in the regular season, he batted .307/.412/.609 with 16 home runs in 65 playoff games (256 plate appearances), making him one of the most decorated postseason batters of all time. He should have one more accolade let to add to the ledger when his name is immortalized among the all-time greats in Cooperstown.
Beltran earned roughly $222MM, per Baseball-Reference, over the life of a career that both B-Ref (69.8 WAR) and Fangraphs (67.2 WAR) consider to be among the absolute best of the past of the past two generations (before even attempting to value his considerable postseason accomplishments). Congratulations to Beltran — one of the best we’ll have the privilege of watching in our lifetimes — on an exceptional career.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL West Notes: Trout, Hernandez, Angels, Bruce
If Mike Trout hadn’t signed his six-year, $144.5MM extension with the Angels in March 2014, the superstar outfielder would’ve been a free agent this offseason. As CBSSports.com’s Mike Axisa writes, this would have led to the single biggest contract in sports history, let alone baseball history. Trout just turned 26 last August, and thus a long-term deal would’ve easily topped Giancarlo Stanton‘s record 13-year, $325MM record pact with the Marlins. Axisa figures a Trout free agent deal would’ve landed well north of $500MM, with even a potential of $600MM in total earnings (in the event of a 14-year deal with bonuses and a buyout of an option year) if Trout didn’t exercise any of what probably would’ve been multiple opt-out clauses. The scenario makes for a fun “what-if” read for baseball fans, and certainly a sigh of relief for Angels fans in particular.
Here’s more from around the AL West…
- The Angels “extensively examined” Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez this season, Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times writes, and Hernandez figures to be on the Halos’ target list as the club looks to fill its longstanding hole at second base this winter. The two teams also briefly discussed Hernandez last offseason but the Angels balked at Philadelphia’s high asking price. If anything, that price tag will be even higher now, as Hernandez is coming off another strong campaign — .294/.373/.421 with nine homers and 15 steals over 511 plate appearances. Hernandez is projected by MLBTR to earn $4.7MM in 2018, the second of four arbitration-eligible years as a Super Two player.
- Beaumont native Jay Bruce would like to sign with one of his home-state teams (the Astros or Rangers), NJ Advance Media’s Abbey Mastracco writes. A return to the Mets is also a possibility, though Bruce’s top priority is to play for a contender. Bruce isn’t a perfect fit on either the Houston or Texas rosters, though the Astros could use another left-handed bat and the DH spot is opening up with Carlos Beltran‘s likely departure. The Rangers could also have DH or right field at-bats open depending on where Shin-Soo Choo plays, or if the team wants to give top prospect Willie Calhoun a look. What doesn’t seem likely, however, is that either Texas club signs Bruce at his initial five-year, $80-$90MM asking price.
Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.
The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.
Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals
The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.
Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros
Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.
Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians
Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.
Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians
After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.
Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers
The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.
What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)
Which Of These Top Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
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Alex Verdugo (Dodgers) 34% (4,669)
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None of these prospects has any chance of being traded 25% (3,415)
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Victor Robles (Nationals) 13% (1,724)
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Kyle Tucker (Astros) 12% (1,659)
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Triston McKenzie (Indians) 9% (1,281)
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Francisco Mejia (Indians) 7% (1,023)
Total votes: 13,771
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/7/17
After a busy transactional day yesterday, let’s catch up on some of the latest minor moves:
- Catcher Bryan Holaday and outfielder Alex Presley have elected free agency from the Tigers, Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports on Twitter. Each of the veterans was outrighted recently, though Woodberry hints that Detroit has interest in bringing both back on minors deals. Holaday will enter the pool of catchers that are looking for opportunities to compete for reserve jobs in camp. The 32-year-old Presley should also draw attention from other organizations; he turned in 264 plate appearances of .314/.354/.416 hitting in 2017.
- The Rockies selected the contract of outfielder Noel Cuevas, per a club announcement. Acquired from the division-rival Dodgers in the trade that sent Juan Nicasio to Los Angeles, Cuevas blossomed at Triple-A Alburquerque in 2017. Across 528 plate appearances, he posted a .312/.353/.487 slash with 15 long balls and 16 steals.
- Two players were also added to the Yankees 40-man roster, the club announced. Outfielder Jake Cave is one of them; the one-time Rule 5 pick won’t be eligible for the draft again this year. He turned in a compelling season in the upper minors, including a robust .324/.367/.554 batting line with 15 long balls in 297 Triple-A plate appearances. Joining him is righty Nick Rumbelow, who returned from Tommy John surgery with aplomb last year. Over 40 1/3 innings, he allowed just five earned runs on 21 hits while racking up a 45:11 K/BB ratio.
- The Indians selected the contract of Eric Haase, per the MLB.com transactions page. The 24-year-old backstop knocked around Double-A pitching to the tune of a .258/.349/.574 batting line and 26 homers through 381 plate appearances.
- Cuban catcher Lorenzo Quintana is joining the Astros for a $200K bonus, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). The 28-year-old is not subject to international signing restrictions. Quintana was long one of the most productive receivers in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, carrying a lifetime .310/.377/.438 batting line, but he last played there in the 2014-15 season.
AL Notes: Cora, Tigers, Astros
There are many reasons that Alex Cora is the right man to manage the Red Sox. As Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald points out, the fact that he’s Latino only adds to that list. Cora is the 47th manager in the history of the Red Sox franchise, and, up until now, every single one of them had been white. The former middle infielder will be involved with a front office that is mostly white while managing a team on the field that has often been predominantly black and hispanic. Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy has stressed that Cora’s minority status is “a bonus rather than impetus”, but regardless, it looks great for a franchise that took 12 years longer to integrate their roster than the first MLB team to do so. Interestingly, Silverman notes that in 2017, 43 percent of major league baseball players were players of color, while only three of 30 managers were non-white.
More from around the AL…
- While Tigers are unlikely to make any significant additions to their major league roster this winter, Evan Woodbery of mlive.com says that the organization will be very active on the minor league free agent market. Detroit will focus on making moves to bolster their depth at Triple-A Toledo and will hope to “find a diamond in the rough or lightning in the bottle”, according to GM Al Avila. Woodbery lists 23 players in the Tigers’ system who are eligible to become minor league free agents, and while many of those will probably re-sign with the organization, it seems likely there will be some shuffling of their Double- and Triple-A rosters this winter.
- Three and a half years ago, an article appeared in Sports Illustrated with a prediction that the Astros would win the 2017 World Series. This past Thursday, Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated explains why he’s predicting a repeat for the Astros in 2018. Although only two teams have been able to win back-to-back championships since the 70’s, Reiter cites a powerhouse offense that will only lose Cameron Maybin and Carlos Beltran as a big reason the Astros can accomplish the feat next year. He also points out that more young reinforcements are on the way in five-tool left-handed outfielder Kyle Tucker and towering right-handed pitcher Forrest Whitley. While Reiter cites the bullpen as an area of need, he concludes that the Astros are “unusually well-positioned to hang onto the crown”.
Quick Hits: Chen, Morton, Rays, Cardinals
Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen informed the Marlins that he will not opt out of the remaining three years and $52MM on his contract, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Considering the injury and performance issues he has had during his two-year Marlins tenure, there was no chance Chen would abandon his deal in favor of free agency. Elbow problems shelved the 32-year-old for long periods in each of the past two seasons, including for most of 2017, and he made just 27 starts and pitched to a 4.72 ERA during that 156 1/3-inning span. The five-year, $80MM contract the Marlins gave Chen prior to the 2016 season now looks like an especially damaging move for a franchise aiming to slash payroll.
More from around the majors:
- The Astros made one of the savviest signings of last offseason when they inked right-hander Charlie Morton to a two-year, $14MM contract, but they may have been able to land him for less, per ESPN’s Buster Olney. When discussing the Astros’ offer with his agent, Morton inferred that their proposal was worth a total of $7MM – an amount he was “thrilled with,” Olney writes. Morton was “astounded” to find that the Astros were willing to give him twice that figure, and he jumped at the chance to sign with the club. A year later, the Astros are World Series champions, thanks in no small part to Morton’s contributions.
- In the wake of their fourth straight sub-.500 season, the Rays are tasked with trying to improve while reducing their already minuscule payroll, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays opened 2017 with a payroll of around $70MM, the second-lowest mark in baseball, and ended it near $80MM. There will be cost-cutting trades this offseason, suggests Topkin, who points to righty Jake Odorizzi, left fielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson, closer Alex Colome and infielder Brad Miller as potential movers. Those four are projected to earn around $23MM through arbitration in 2018.
- With a glut of outfielders in both the majors and minors, the Cardinals are in position to “dominate” that segment of the trade market, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America observes (subscription required and recommended). Glaser goes on to break down the likelihood of the organization trading any of its top 11 outfielders, including Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Jose Martinez.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
On the heels of their seven-game World Series triumph over the Dodgers, the Astros have finally entered an offseason with the rest of Major League Baseball aspiring to surpass them. It took until the 55th year of the franchise’s existence to win a championship, but the team and its fans might not have to wait much longer to celebrate another title.
Thanks largely to general manager Jeff Luhnow, whom Houston hired in December 2011 and who executed an arduous rebuilding effort to perfection, the Astros have the makings of a club that will contend for more World Series in the near future. And while professional sports teams that win titles often see key players defect in free agency in the ensuing offseason, the Astros are in the luxurious position of having all of their top contributors under control for at least another year. Luhnow won’t face much pressure to make improvements this winter, then, but he’ll nonetheless look to upgrade a roster that finished the regular season with the American’s League’s second-best record (101-61) and third-ranked run differential (plus-196).
Guaranteed Contracts
- Justin Verlander, SP: $40MM through 2019
- Josh Reddick, OF: $39MM through 2020
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $30MM through 2020
- Brian McCann, C: $11.5MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
- Charlie Morton, SP: $7MM through 2018
- Tony Sipp, RP: $6MM through 2018
- Will Harris, RP: $2.8MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
- Jon Singleton, 1B: $2MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
Contract Options
- Jose Altuve, 2B: Exercised $6MM club option
- Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL: Exercised $5.125MM club option
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
- Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
- Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
- Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
- George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
- Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
- Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
- Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
- Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM
- Non-tender candidate: Fiers
Free Agents
[Astros Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Information]
As you’d expect, not much went haywire for the Astros during a successful postseason run that saw them upend the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers. One glaring exception was their bullpen, whose struggles forced manager A.J. Hinch into some unconventional maneuverings this fall. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrove offered elite-caliber production across a combined 172 1/3 innings during the regular campaign, but they were anything but reliable in the postseason. As a result, Hinch turned to three members of his regular-season rotation – Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock (who functioned solely as a reliever in the playoffs) and Charlie Morton – for multi-inning, win-preserving appearances during the Astros’ series against the Yankees and Dodgers.
Although Giles was one of baseball’s premier closers in 2017, he was dreadful on the sport’s biggest stage, and his Game 4 blowup against LA went down as the last time he took the mound this year. While Giles’ track record indicates he should remain the club’s closer in 2018, it’s worth noting that the Astros zeroed in on a couple other established late-game options – the Orioles’ Zach Britton and then-Tiger Justin Wilson – in advance of this past summer’s trade deadline. The fact that Houston tried to significantly fortify its bullpen even before Giles’ issues cropped up suggests its relief corps may be an area of focus this offseason. MLBTR colleagues Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, Jeff Todd and Jason Martinez expect that to be the case, evidenced by their prediction that the Astros will sign free agent closer Wade Davis to a four-year, $60MM contract.
Davis is one of many proven relievers the Astros might go after in free agency (Greg Holland and Addison Reed are other high-end possibilities), or they could subtract from their rich farm system to make a splash on the trade market by landing someone like Britton (he’s likely to stay put, however), Brad Hand (Padres) or Raisel Iglesias (Reds). Britton, Hand or a free agent such as Jake McGee or Mike Minor would give the Astros a southpaw reliever who’s capable of handling both lefty- and righty-swingers, which is something they currently lack. The Astros’ lone left-handed reliever is Tony Sipp, who has been a bust during his two-year tenure with the club and wasn’t even on its playoff roster. The only lefty in the Astros’ bullpen during the postseason was longtime starter Francisco Liriano, a July trade pickup who made five playoff appearances and is now headed for free agency.
Luke Gregerson and late-season addition Tyler Clippard are the other two 2017 Astros relievers without contracts. Gregerson was third among Astros bullpen options in innings in 2017 (61), but his regular-season output was uncharacteristically mediocre and he was barely a factor in the playoffs (3 2/3 frames). Clippard, meanwhile, failed to pitch his way into Houston’s postseason plans after coming over in an August deal with the White Sox.
Liriano, Gregerson and Clippard may be on the way out, but the Astros still have Giles, Devenski, Musgrove, Will Harris, James Hoyt and Sipp (barring a release or trade) as locks or strong bets for their bullpen next year. Like most of those hurlers, Michael Feliz and Francis Martes had substantial relief roles in 2017. Feliz was somewhat of a disappointment, though, and Martes figures to open 2018 in Triple-A Fresno’s rotation.
Given his experience as a reliever, Peacock may return to the bullpen if the Astros don’t trade Collin McHugh, who has worked exclusively as a starter during his four-year tenure with the club and may slot in behind Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, McCullers and Morton at the outset of next season. Alternatively, the Astros could shift Peacock to the bullpen, trade McHugh, jettison Mike Fiers and use a large portion of their available payroll space on one of the two front-end starters on the open market. Yu Darvish, whom the Astros tormented in the World Series, and Jake Arrieta will easily collect the largest deals among starters this year. The Astros don’t need either of those two, though the idea of adding one of them to an already strong rotation is enticing. Plus, as good as Houston’s starters look on paper, Keuchel, McCullers and Morton have each had their share of injury issues during their careers, and Morton is only under contract for another season.
No matter which pitchers comprise the Astros’ staff in 2018, their hurlers will again have the benefit of working with a group of all-world position players. The foundational trio of AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve, World Series MVP George Springer and Carlos Correa will be back, as will a supporting cast that consists of budding star Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis. That group of nine did nearly all of the damage for an Astros offense that laid waste to the opposition in 2017, topping the majors in position player fWAR (33.0), runs (896), wRC+ (121) and strikeout rate (17.3 percent).
The sole regular who was a weak link for the Astros was potential Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran, who was among the worst designated hitters in the league during a season in which he raked in a pricey $16MM. While Beltran didn’t live up to his deal from a statistical standpoint, Astros management, coaches and players would likely argue that the revered 40-year-old justified the pact behind the scenes. Either way, the impending free agent’s second tenure with the Astros is probably over. As such, finding a new DH figures to be on the agenda for the Astros, whose free agent targets could include two-way Japanese sensation Shohei Otani (who would also beef up Houston’s rotation), Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison, Carlos Gonzalez and Lucas Duda, to name several. Any of those six would add a lefty-capable bat to a lineup whose only left-handed regulars are Reddick, McCann and the switch-hitting Gonzalez. Santana, in particular, would give the Astros yet another hard-to-strike out offensive weapon.
As for Marwin Gonzalez, it’s unclear whether he’ll be the Astros’ regular left fielder, which he was in the playoffs, or revert to a super-utility role next year. It’s also up in the air just what Houston will get from Gonzalez, whose .303/.377/.530 line in 515 regular-season PAs may not be a harbinger of what’s to come. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Gonzalez’s actual weighted on-base average (.387) far outdid his expected wOBA (.320), which suggests that his career season was largely the product of good batted-ball fortune. If the Astros agree with that, and if they allow August acquisition Cameron Maybin to leave in free agency, it could put them in the market for outfield help (though free agency won’t offer many clear solutions).
If Luhnow is in an especially bold mood, he could try to swing a trade for on-the-block Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who would make the Astros’ offense all the more video game-like. Granted, the $295MM remaining on Stanton’s contract through 2028 – not to mention his right to opt out of the deal after 2020 – may render that idea wholly unrealistic. Teammates Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich would be more pragmatic possibilities for the Astros, but the Marlins reportedly aren’t looking to part with either. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, with a year and $14.5MM left on his contract, seems like a more practical target. The 31-year-old would be a solid stopgap for a Houston club with two touted young outfielders, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher, waiting in the wings.
After constructing a championship-winning roster in 2017, Luhnow could make any number of headline-grabbing transactions this offseason to better the Astros’ chances of repeating next year. However, considering the overwhelming amount of talent in the fold and the paucity of integral free agents set to leave Houston, no one would blame Luhnow for taking a modest approach this winter. In the end, his most important moves may come in the form of extensions for core players such as Altuve, Springer and Keuchel, who each have three or fewer years of team control remaining.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros Notes: Keuchel, Springer, Correa, Altuve
The Astros’ enviable core of talent has already delivered one World Series title and set them up as contenders through at least next season. The big-picture question facing Houston, however, will be which members of the roster are kept over the long term. Here are some notes from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman on the state of any Astros contract extensions…
- Dallas Keuchel is currently in the process of switching his representation. The ace southpaw has one final year of arbitration eligibility (MLBTR projects him to earn $12.6MM) before hitting the open market as part of the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class. The agency change “and timing could suggest he’s thinking about change,” Heyman writes, though Keuchel has been willing to discuss an extension with the Astros in the past. Previous talks didn’t result in a long-term deal, however — Heyman notes that one of the team’s initial offers was similar to the early-career extensions signed by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale.
- There haven’t been any extension talks with George Springer in “at least a year and a half.” Houston also made an early-career extension offer to Springer, and then a significantly larger offer around two years ago. Springer is in line for extra money as a Super Two player, as he earned $3.9MM in 2017 and is projected for a big raise up to $8.9MM in 2018. Since the Astros have Springer under team control through the 2020 season, there isn’t any immediate need for an extension, unless the Astros want cost-certainty over his arb years or want to establish Springer as a long-term cornerstone player into the next decade.
- Some interesting details are provided on Jose Altuve‘s representation history, as the second baseman initially parted ways with Scott Boras in 2013 when Boras advised Altuve against signing an extension with the Astros. Altuve went on to indeed sign that extension in July 2013, and Altuve’s subsequent rise to superstar status made that four-year, $12.5MM deal with two club option years into a major bargain. (Houston exercised the first of those club options for 2018, netting Altuve another $6MM in guaranteed money.) Altuve re-hired Boras as his agent in July 2016, which Heyman writes “could be taken as an indication he has a different mindset now that he has the security” of that initial contract. Boras clients generally end up reaching free agency, though there have been enough high-profile exceptions to that trend (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez) that there is still hope at a longer-term deal to keep Altuve in Houston.
- Carlos Correa seems perfectly willing to go year-to-year until he hits free agency. The shortstop said last spring that he was at least willing to listen about a long-term deal but only until he hit his arbitration years; Greg Genske, Correa’s agent, made the bolder statement that Correa had no interest at all in an early-career extension. Last April, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth explored the many forms a Correa extension could take, if the two sides did happen to come to an agreement. Correa will become eligible for arbitration next offseason, so the team has one more year to work out a multi-year deal, assuming Correa’s previously-stated deadline still holds.