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AL East Notes: Verdugo, Sale, Misiewicz, Hamilton, Mountcastle, Cimber

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Alex Verdugo’s name surfaced in trade rumors around the deadline, with at least one unknown AL team reportedly having interest in the Red Sox outfielder.  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Yankees and Astros had some talks with the Sox about Verdugo, but naturally no deal was completed.  The Astros instead focused on adding pitching (Justin Verlander and Kendall Graveman) at the deadline but have gotten a lineup boost from Michael Brantley’s return from the injured list, while the Yankees only made a couple of lower-level bullpen additions.  While it has been an inconsistent season for Verdugo, New York’s decision to not add any batting help backfired, as the near team-wide hitting slump in August sunk the Yankees’ playoff chances.

Boston’s deadline strategy over the last two seasons has been the subject of criticism, and undoubtedly factored into the team’s decision to fire chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom earlier this week.  With the Red Sox on the outskirts of the wild card race in both seasons, Bloom didn’t pursue a clear selling-or-buying direction in either year, opting for a more cautious approach rather than going all in on contending or moving any high-profile names.

Most surprisingly, Bradford also reported that Bloom turned down an unknown club’s offer to acquire Chris Sale and all of the remaining money on Sale’s contract at the 2022 deadline.  “The Red Sox wanted better players than were offered and no deal was done,” Bradford writes, yet an argument can certainly be made that getting Sale’s salary off the books would’ve represented enough of a win for the Sox that the player return might have been a secondary concern.  Sale is making $27.5MM this season and in 2024, with a $20MM club option for 2025 that looks very unlikely to be exercised given how Sale has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Yankees placed left-hander Anthony Misiewicz on the seven-day concussion IL today while reinstating righty Ian Hamilton from the 15-day IL.  Misiewicz was carted off the field yesterday after being struck in the head with a Ji Hwan Bae line drive, but manager Aaron Boone told the YES Network today that Misiewicz was released from hospital and “all things considered, I think he’s doing pretty well.”  More will be known once Misiewicz undergoes further testing, and while there is no timetable for concussion-related symptoms, it would seem like Misiewicz’s season might be over.  The southpaw has a 9.00 ERA over 11 total innings with the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Yankees this season, and Friday’s game marked Misiewicz’s third game in the pinstripes since being claimed off waivers from Detroit back in July.  Hamilton returns after a minimal 15-day absence due to a groin strain.
  • Ryan Mountcastle isn’t in the Orioles’ lineup today, and hasn’t played since leaving Wednesday’s game due to left shoulder discomfort.  Manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters that Mountcastle was feeling “just okay” when trying to take some swings yesterday, and was hopeful Mountcastle might be available to pinch-hit in today’s game.
  • Blue Jays reliever Adam Cimber will start a Triple-A rehab assignment today, manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath and other reporters.  A pair of shoulder-related injuries have limited Cimber to 20 2/3 innings this season, and he hasn’t pitched due to June 18 due to an impingement in his right shoulder.  This lengthy stint on the 60-day IL means that Cimber will need a few rehab games to ramp up, but he should be able to return to the Jays’ bullpen before the season is through.  After posting a 2.53 ERA over 142 1/3 innings with the Marlins and Blue Jays in 2021, Cimber has only a 7.40 ERA this year, though his shoulder issues have likely contributed to those struggles.

David Stearns Has Spoken With Mets, Astros About Potential Front Office Positions

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For the past few years, speculation has abounded about the future of Brewers’ executive David Stearns. The Mets have made no secret of their affinity for Milwaukee’s longtime baseball operations leader.

New York’s interest hadn’t amounted to much to this point. Stearns has been under contract with Milwaukee, allowing Brewers’ owner Mark Attanasio to block the Mets from interviewing him over the 2021-22 offseason. Attanasio retained that freedom last winter, even as Stearns stepped down from running baseball operations and moved into an advisory role for longtime lieutenant Matt Arnold.

That’s no longer the case. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that Stearns’ contract allowed him to begin speaking with other teams about a possible front office job following the August 1 trade deadline. Rosenthal and Sammon report that Stearns has already been in contact with both the Mets and Astros (potentially among other teams).

There has been plenty of speculation around the industry about the Mets turning baseball operations over to Stearns once his contract with Milwaukee was finished. Not only is he clearly well-regarded by Mets’ owner Steve Cohen, the 38-year-old executive is a Manhattan native who worked in the Mets’ front office early in his career. While New York signed Billy Eppler to a four-year contract to take over as general manager in the 2021-22 offseason, Cohen has gone on record about a desire to add a baseball operations president to take over above Eppler (who would remain as GM).

It’s unclear how far along talks between Stearns and the New York organization have gotten. Andy Martino of SNY suggests (Twitter link) that discussions have already advanced further than the Mets’ talks with Theo Epstein had two offseasons ago, though he cautions that a deal coming together is not certain.

Perhaps that’s related to the possibility of Houston staying involved. Stearns worked as an assistant general manager for the Astros from 2013-15, the immediate precursor to taking over baseball operations in Milwaukee. He’s clearly familiar with Houston owner Jim Crane, who reportedly showed interest in bringing Stearns back last offseason (but denied in January that he’d requested formal permission from the Brewers for an interview).

The path to running baseball operations is clearer in Queens than in Houston, however. The Astros surprisingly moved on from James Click last offseason despite winning the World Series. They operated without a baseball operations leader until tabbing Braves’ vice president of scouting Dana Brown in late January. While Crane took an unconventional path with Click — with whom he’d reportedly had a frosty relationship despite the team’s success — there’s no indication the now first-place club is considering diminishing Brown’s responsibility after eight months on the job.

That all seems to point to the Mets as the most logical landing spot. Rosenthal and Sammon hear from individuals close to Stearns that he was “re-energized” by a season with less responsibility and is prepared to reassume a key role in baseball operations. (Stearns declined comment to The Athletic.) That’d be a change from last winter, when he said he was “looking forward to taking a deep breath, spending time with my family and exploring some other interests” when stepping down from the president role with Milwaukee.

Astros Place Ryne Stanek On Injured List, Outright Rylan Bannon

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The Astros announced that reliever Ryne Stanek has landed on the 15-day injured list due to a right ankle sprain. Parker Mushinski is up from Triple-A Sugar Land to take his spot on the active roster. Additionally, infielder Rylan Bannon has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Sugar Land after being designated for assignment over the weekend.

Stanek was injured in the ninth inning of yesterday’s blowout win in Arlington. The right-hander covered first base on a Leody Taveras grounder to the right side (video provided by Talkin’ Baseball). Stanek hit the bag awkwardly while receiving the throw from José Abreu. He went down in pain and was eventually taken off the field on a cart.

Given that alarming scene, it’s arguably a relief to hear the preliminary diagnosis as a strain. The veteran hurler isn’t finished going through tests, though. Chandler Rome of the Athletic tweets that Stanek is en route back to Houston for further imaging. Those results will obviously determine the recovery timetable.

Stanek has worked to a 4.07 ERA over 48 2/3 innings this year. He’s striking out a roughly average 23.8% of opposing hitters against a lofty 10.2% walk percentage. That’s below the level he showed over his first two seasons in Houston. Stanek was rather quietly an integral part of excellent Astros’ bullpens in 2021-22, combining for a 2.41 ERA while punching out 28.2% of batters faced.

While this hasn’t been his best season, the hard-throwing hurler still seems likely to secure a spot on the Houston playoff roster if the team qualifies and he’s able to get back on the mound. He’s a couple months from his first trip to the open market.

Bannon, meanwhile, was DFA when Houston claimed Bennett Sousa off waivers. The 27-year-old infielder has only played in two big league games for the Astros after being claimed over the offseason. He has spent the bulk of the season with Sugar Land, putting together a .230/.346/.433 line with 15 home runs over 350 plate appearances in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting.

It’s the first career outright for Bannon, who had been claimed off waivers the first four times he landed on the wire. With less than three years of major league service, he doesn’t have the right to decline the assignment. He’ll remain in Triple-A for the remainder of the season but would qualify for minor league free agency at the beginning of the offseason unless the Astros add him back to the 40-man roster.

Ari Alexander of KPRC2 first reported Mushinski’s recall and Stanek’s ankle sprain.

Astros To Seek Fourth Option Season For Forrest Whitley

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It has been another injury-wrecked season for former top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley. The right-hander was diagnosed with a lat strain at the start of June, an injury that initially came with a three-plus month recovery timetable.

Over the weekend, general manager Dana Brown indicated that Whitley was unlikely to return this season (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Brown pushed back against the notion that the 25-year-old hurler had suffered a setback but conceded he hasn’t been able to “get over the hump” in his rehab.

Initially added to the 40-man roster before the 2021 season, Whitley has yet to get to the big leagues. He has spent the past three years on optional assignment to the minors, where he’d spent an unfortunate amount of time on the injured list. Most players can be optioned to the minors in a maximum of three separate seasons. After that, the team is required to keep the player on the major league roster or take him off the 40-man entirely (thereby making him available to other teams via trade or waivers). This is Whitley’s third option year.

However, Brown said the Astros will petition MLB for a fourth option season on Whitley (via Rome). That’s available in the case of players who have exhausted their options before logging five full professional seasons — defined as 90+ days on a minor league or MLB active roster. That’s a rare occurrence but sometimes applies to players who have missed extended time with injuries and/or suspension.

Whitley has missed chunks of minor league action for both reasons. He was suspended for a violation of the minor league drug program in 2018, keeping him to eight starts that year. He battled shoulder issues the next season, then was kept out of game action by the pandemic cancelation of the minors in 2020. Whitley underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training 2021 and only returned towards the tail end of last season. It appears as though he won’t log any more game action this year, with his final appearance coming on May 25.

That’d seem to give the Astros a good shot of being granted an additional option, though the team won’t know for certain until the offseason. It’s not guaranteed he’ll be on the Houston roster next March regardless, as the Astros would have to keep him on the 40-man roster all offseason. Whitley’s prospect stock has plummeted thanks to the various injury concerns and performance questions during his intermittent game action. He was hit hard in 30 Triple-A innings this season, allowing a 5.70 ERA. He posted a solid 23.7% strikeout rate but walked almost 13% of opposing batters.

Astros Claim Bennett Sousa Off Waivers

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The Astros have claimed left-hander Bennett Sousa off of Detroit’s waiver wire, according to the Tigers.  The Astros announced that infielder Rylan Bannon was designated for assignment to create roster space on Houston’s 40-man.  Right-hander Blair Calvo was also outrighted to the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate after clearing waivers.

Sousa has been optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land, where he’ll provide some depth should the Astros need some left-handed help in their bullpen.  Framber Valdez is the only left-hander on Houston’s MLB roster, and Sousa joins fellow Sugar Land Space Cowboys Parker Mushinski and Matt Gage as the only other left-handed options on the 40-man.

The 28-year-old Sousa is changing teams for the second time in a week, as Detroit only claimed him off waivers from the Brewers on August 29.  Sousa’s brief Tigers tenure didn’t result in any Major League or minor league action with the organization, as the Tigers designated him for assignment just on September 1.

A tenth-round pick for the White Sox in the 2018 draft, Sousa made his MLB debut with Chicago in 2022 before joining the Reds on a waiver claim back in February.  The Brewers then acquired Sousa in April, leading to two appearances for Sousa in a Milwaukee uniform.  Altogether, Sousa has appeared in 27 MLB games and thrown 23 innings during his career, posting an even 9.00 ERA.  Over 193 1/3 innings in the minors, Sousa has a 2.98 ERA to go along with some good strikeout rates and grounder rates, though control has increasingly become an issue as Sousa has worked his way up the minor league ladder.

Bannon made his Major League debut last season, and has already suited up for three different teams (Orioles, Braves, Astros) over his seven career games in the Show.  Perhaps best known as one of the five players acquired by the O’s from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, Bannon was involved in a flurry of waiver claims over the last five months of 2022, going from the Orioles to the Dodgers to the Braves to the Cubs and finally to the Astros in December.

His 21 career PA in the majors have only yielded two hits, but Bannon has posted some decent numbers in the minors, including a .228/.339/.420 slash line over 1191 PA at the Triple-A level.  Between his bat and his ability to play second base, third base, and shortstop, it wouldn’t be a shock if Bannon is claimed again on waivers from a team looking for some infield depth.

Astros Outright Jake Cousins

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The Astros have sent right-hander Jake Cousins outright to Triple-A Sugar Land, tweets Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Houston had designated him for assignment earlier in the week upon reinstating Michael Brantley from the injured list.

Cousins spent a month on Houston’s 40-man roster. The Astros claimed him off waivers from the Brewers shortly before the trade deadline. The 29-year-old didn’t pitch for Houston at the big league level. He was on optional assignment to Sugar Land, allowing eight runs in as many innings with eight walks and seven strikeouts.

The right-hander had far better strikeout and walk rates with Milwaukee’s top affiliate earlier in the year. He punched out almost 38% of batters faced while keeping his free passes below a 7% clip in 12 1/3 frames. Cousins had struggled in 9 1/3 MLB innings for the Brew Crew this year but was quite effective at the MLB level from 2021-22.

Over his first two seasons, Cousins pitched to a 2.70 ERA while fanning more than 35% of opposing hitters through 43 1/3 frames. A near-15% walk rate pointed to alarming control issues, but he showed rare ability to miss bats. Cousins clearly hasn’t found much rhythm this year, perhaps in part related to shoulder inflammation that sent him to the injured list for a month between June and July.

It’s the first outright for Cousins, who has less than three years of major league service. He doesn’t have the right to become a free agent. He’ll stick at Sugar Land and try to pitch his way back onto the roster by season’s end. Cousins would qualify for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason if Houston doesn’t reselect his contract.

Astros Activate Michael Brantley From 60-Day IL, DFA Jake Cousins

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The Astros have activated Michael Brantley from the 60-day injured list, the team announced. Corey Julks has been optioned to Triple-A to make room on the 26-man roster, while Jake Cousins has been designated for assignment to open up a spot on the 40-man. On Sunday, Astros GM Dana Brown told Robert Ford of 790 AM radio that Brantley could “maybe, potentially” return to the lineup by Tuesday, following a checkup appointment with team doctors. Evidently, his appointment went well, and he will be back in the starting lineup this evening.

The veteran outfielder and designated hitter has not played an MLB game since June 2022. Initially, he went on the 10-day IL with discomfort in his right shoulder, but seven weeks later, he underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum. At the time, he remained hopeful he could return for Opening Day in 2023, but he was unable to get back in game shape during spring training. He began the season on the 10-day IL as he tried to ramp up but suffered a setback in May. In late June, the Astros moved him to the 60-day IL, and in early July, manager Dusty Baker explained that Brantley had “plateaued” in his attempt to return to the field.

Despite missing so much time, Brantley looked excellent during his latest rehab stint with Triple-A Sugar Land. In seven games, he hit .348/.444/.565, good for a 147 wRC+. That’s a promising sign that he’ll be able to pick up right where he left off; he hit .288 with a 127 wRC+ in 64 games for the Astros in 2022. However, Houston isn’t planning to lean too heavily on Brantley straight away. The plan is to gently build up his workload, giving the 36-year-old plenty of days off, at least in the beginning.

Cousins joined the Astros organization last month, when Houston claimed him off waivers from Milwaukee. The 29-year-old right-hander had a 4.82 ERA in nine relief appearances for the Brewers and a 7.30 ERA in 13 games at Triple-A. He didn’t fare much better with the Astros org, giving up eight earned runs in eight innings pitched for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. Overall, it has been a disappointing season for Cousins, who showed real promise with the Brewers from 2021-22. He pitched 30 games with the big league club in 2021, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 35.2% strikeout rate. He was shut down with a UCL injury the following season but opted not to undergo Tommy John surgery. He pitched well in Triple-A upon his return, first during a rehab stint and then an optional assignment, and made three scoreless appearances for the big league club in September. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone his way in 2023. The Astros will now have to place Cousins on waivers. Given his recent success at the big league level, there’s a reasonable chance he could be claimed.

Julks, Houston’s eighth-round pick in the 2017 draft, made his big league debut earlier this year. He remained with the Astros from Opening Day through early August, when he was optioned to Triple-A. He returned shortly thereafter, replacing an injured Grae Kessinger on the active roster. The 27-year-old has hit .245 with an 80 wRC+ at the MLB level, splitting his time between left field and DH. He could potentially return to Houston when rosters expand in September, but he’ll have to spend the minimum of 10 days at the minor league level before he returns.

Astros Notes: Brantley, Maton, Blanco

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Michael Brantley’s long absence from the Astros lineup could finally be nearing its end, as GM Dana Brown told Robert Ford of 790 AM radio today (hat tip to Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that Brantley will visit the team Monday in Boston when the Astros begin a series with the Red Sox.  After what would presumably be a final checkup with team doctors, Brantley would “then hopefully…maybe, potentially, in the lineup by Tuesday.  We’re feeling really good about him coming back,” Brown said.

Brantley’s last big league game took place on June 26, 2022, as shoulder problems eventually required a surgery that cost Brantley the rest of the season and a chance to participate in Houston’s run to the World Series title.  Initially, Brantley was expected to be ready for Opening Day, though a need for a more gradual build pushed his target date to around the start of May.  Unfortunately, a pair of setbacks kept delaying matters, but things finally seem to be going fairly smoothly for Brantley during his current minor league rehab assignment.  Over seven games with Triple-A Round Rock, Brantley has a fantastic 1.010 OPS in 27 plate appearances, hinting that he can still deliver at the plate when healthy.

Brown said the Astros will gradually ease Brantley back into action, as a part-time role with several off-days built into his workload should hopefully keep the bothersome shoulder in good condition.  Brantley has been regularly playing left field at Triple-A, so while the Astros are likely to give him a good chunk of DH at-bats, it doesn’t look like he’ll be limited to just a bat-only role.

Houston is fighting both the Rangers and Mariners in a three-pronged AL West battle, and the upcoming series in Boston carries added importance since the Red Sox are in the wild card hunt.  Between this crowded postseason picture, the Astros could still finish anywhere from a first-round bye as the AL West champ to missing the playoffs altogether.  It might be a lot to expect Brantley to resume his previous All-Star form after such a long layoff, but if he can post anything close to his old numbers, that’s still a big help to an already potent lineup.

Though it’ll still be at least a day before Brantley’s potential return, the Astros made an addition to the roster today, as Phil Maton was activated from the 15-day injured list.  Right-hander Ronel Blanco was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move, and as the Athletic’s Chandler Rome noted (via X), Blanco has now hit the maximum number of five minor league options in a single season.  If Blanco is recalled and the Astros wanted to eventually send him back to the minors, they would first need to expose the righty to waivers.

Maton hasn’t pitched since August 11, when Eduardo Escobar drilled a line drive up the middle into Maton’s throwing elbow.  Fortunately, there wasn’t any damage besides a bruise and some soreness, so Maton was able to return after the minimum 15 days.  The veteran reliever is enjoying a nice season, with a 3.04 ERA over 53 1/3 innings and some of the best soft-contact numbers and spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.

MLBTR Poll: AL West Winner

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Heading into play Tuesday, there’s only one division where the lead is two games or fewer. That’s the AL West, which has a pair of teams within two games of the frontrunner. Whoever wins the division is very likely to get a first-round bye — all three teams are at least five games clear of the AL Central-leading Twins — adding extra incentive for the clubs to secure more than a Wild Card spot.

With the Angels now 11 games out and the A’s on their way to 110+ losses, we’ll take a look at the three remaining teams with a plausible path to contention:

Texas Rangers, 72-53 (lead division by 1.5 games)

The Rangers have had a share of the division lead for all but one day of the season. They’ve been in sole possession of first place going back to May 6, stretching their margin out to 6.5 games in the final week of June. Texas has allowed the gap to close in recent weeks, playing slightly below .500 ball between June and July. They rebounded to win 10 of 11 to start August but have dropped six of eight since then (including five in a row).

Texas has been far and away the best offensive team in the division. They trail only Atlanta overall in runs and all three slash stats. They’ve cooled off a bit following a scorching start, ranking eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break. Even after losing Jacob deGrom, the rotation has held up remarkably well — and deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery couldn’t have performed much better through their respective first four starts in a Ranger uniform.

The biggest question mark, as has been the case the entire season, is the bullpen. Texas relievers rank 25th in ERA overall; they’re 24th with a 4.96 figure since the start of the second half. The front office added to the relief corps this summer, bringing in Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton. They’ve each been effective (although Chapman blew a save in last night’s extra-inning loss in Arizona) but the group has been shaky enough overall to contribute to a handful of frustrating defeats.

Texas is 9-17 in one-run contests and 2-5 in games that go to extra innings. There’s probably some amount of poor fortune baked into that mark, but it’s hard to attribute those struggles all to luck (particularly after the Rangers were a staggering 15-35 in one-run games a season ago).

Among all major league teams, only the Braves have a superior run differential to the Rangers’ +184 mark. Few teams are capable of bludgeoning an opponent the way Texas can. Can they lock down enough tight games to hold off their two top competitors?

Houston Astros, 71-55 (1.5 games back of Texas, 0.5 ahead of Seattle)

The defending World Series winners entered the season as the favorites to capture another AL West crown. Yet this year’s Houston club, while very good, hasn’t played at the same level as last year’s 106-win squad.

That’s primarily a reflection of a step back on the pitching front. Last year’s club finished the regular season eighth in run scoring; they’re sixth in that regard this season. Their run prevention has regressed a bit, as they’ve dropped from second to fifth in ERA. After finishing second in the majors with a 26% strikeout rate a season ago, they’re down to ninth (at 24%) this year.

It’s certainly not a bad pitching staff — Houston is still in the upper third of the league in most categories — but injuries slowed them early in the year. Luis Garcia won’t return from Tommy John surgery. They got nothing from Lance McCullers Jr. because of persistent forearm issues. Allowing Justin Verlander to depart in free agency subtracted the defending Cy Young winner for the season’s first few months. He’s back in the fold but hasn’t been as dominant in 2023 as he was a year ago. José Urquidy missed a couple months with shoulder issues, while Cristian Javier has been inconsistent after an excellent start to the year.

Strong rookie showings from Hunter Brown and J.P. France were instrumental in keeping the club afloat while Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy were on the injured list. With Urquidy now healthy and Verlander back, Houston’s rotation again runs six deep. The lineup is nearing full strength with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez healthy and Michael Brantley on a rehab stint. First baseman José Abreu is in an uncertain spot because of a back injury, though he hasn’t produced even when healthy.

The Astros have never really had a chance to fire on all cylinders. They haven’t spent a single day with even a share of first place since losing on Opening Day. They’ve hung around, though, and they’re getting closer to trotting out the roster they’ve more or less envisioned.

Seattle Mariners, 70-55 (2 games back of Texas, 0.5 back of Houston)

The Mariners have been the hottest team in the American League over the past two months. Seattle had been remarkably average for the first few months, never winning nor losing more than four consecutive games through the end of July. Even after going 17-9 in July, the M’s trod an uncertain course at the deadline. They dealt away closer Paul Sewald to add MLB-ready but more controllable offensive help in the form of Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas. Unlike their division rivals in Arlington, Houston and even Anaheim, the Mariners didn’t make any headline-grabbing deadline acquisitions.

No matter, Seattle is an AL-best 15-4 since the calendar flipped to August. They’ve rattled off separate win streaks of seven-plus games (the latter of which is ongoing) this month. Part of the front office’s logic in trading Sewald was their confidence the bullpen was deep enough to remain excellent; the relief corps is indeed fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeout rate since the deadline.

Seattle’s rotation has been among the league’s best all year. They lead the majors in innings and rank sixth in ERA. Rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have stepped in well behind the star trio of George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert. The biggest recent turnaround has been the offense. A lineup which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto frankly conceded four weeks ago was “an average major league offense” trails only Atlanta and Philadelphia in scoring this month.

After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, they lead the league in wRC+ in August. They’ve gotten contributions throughout the batting order. Of the 11 Seattle hitters with 40+ plate appearances, only Rojas has posted below-average numbers. Julio Rodríguez has arguably been the best player on the planet over the past three weeks, while Ty France and Teoscar Hernández have caught fire after previously underwhelming seasons by their standards.

All of a sudden, the Mariners are firmly within striking distance of what could be their first division title since 2001. They’ll control their own destiny into the season’s final week and a half. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com observed (on Twitter), Seattle’s final three series are against the clubs they’re trying to track down. They’ll finish the regular season with a three-game set in Arlington, three at home against Houston, and then four more against the Rangers at T-Mobile Park.

———————

How does the MLBTR readership envision things playing out? Which team will take home the division crown, and for good measure, how many teams from the AL West will snag a Wild Card berth?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

The Astros’ Potential Outfield Surplus

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Entering the season, the outfield was an area of some uncertainty on an excellent Houston roster. Kyle Tucker is an established star in right field. The other two positions were more questionable. Before Opening Day, Houston brass has suggested they planned to divide left field and designated hitter reps between Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. As it has been for a couple seasons, center field looked to involve a battle for playing time between Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers.

Brantley’s recovery from last summer’s shoulder surgery hasn’t been as smooth as hoped. The five-time All-Star began the season on the injured list, leaving rookie Corey Julks to assume the LF/DH hybrid role alongside Alvarez. Julks has had some good stretches of play but been equally prone to extended slumps. He owns a .245/.299/.353 line in his first 86 big league contests and is currently in Triple-A.

Various setbacks have continued to keep Brantley out of action all season. When Alvarez suffered an oblique strain in mid-June — an injury that’d cost him six weeks — it looked as if the outfield and/or DH could be a problem. Not only has that not been the case, Houston’s outfield has thrived.

Since Alvarez first went on the IL on June 9, Houston outfielders are hitting .281/.370/.504 in 745 trips to the plate. They trail only the Braves’ group in on-base percentage and slugging. They’re third in on-base and sixth in slugging if one also includes DH production (where Alvarez would obviously have seen some time had he been healthy for that entire stretch).

In large part, that’s thanks to Tucker. He’ll find his name on MVP ballots for a third consecutive season. The star right fielder has raked at a .323/.410/.610 clip over that stretch and is hitting .297/.377/.526 overall. Alvarez has picked up where he’d left off since returning on July 26, putting up a .282/.378/.521 mark in 19 games.

It isn’t just the established superstars though. McCormick was a quietly productive player over his first two big league seasons and has found a new gear in 2023. Over 313 plate appearances, he owns a .288/.378/.539 batting line. Of the 215 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, McCormick ranks 18th in OBP and 12th in slugging. He has been on a particular tear of late, with a .317/.410/.593 slash since June 9.

McCormick’s strikeout and walk rates aren’t much different from his prior two seasons. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage haven’t changed and he’s unlikely to maintain a .363 average on balls in play. Yet his uptick in production isn’t entirely about batted ball fortune. McCormick is hitting for more power than he did in his first two seasons, at least in part reflecting a conscious change in his offensive approach.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently chatted with the right-handed hitter about a mechanical tweak he’d made to become more upright in his stance. The goal was to open his front shoulder slightly in order to allow him to become more pull-oriented. McCormick has always had raw power, but an extreme opposite-field approach muted some of that production. Pulled fly balls clear the fence at a much higher rate than flies to center or the opposite field. Few hitters pulled the ball in the air less often than McCormick between 2021-22. That didn’t stop him from being a good player, but it left some power potential on the table (particularly with the Crawford boxes only 315 feet down the left field line in Houston).

The change certainly seems to be paying off. His rate of pulled fly balls this season is nearly twice that of the previous two years. While he’s not hitting the ball harder overall, his average exit velocity on fly balls specifically is a personal high. The production has followed. Even if his BABIP takes a step back, McCormick should be a better offensive player than he’d been over his first two seasons and certainly looks deserving of everyday playing time.

Lately, that has mostly come in left field. Brantley could soon cut into those corner outfield reps. The veteran began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday. Barring another setback, he could rejoin the big league club within the next two weeks. Skipper Dusty Baker will likely carefully monitor Brantley’s workload to ease the stress on his shoulder, but a healthy Brantley can be a key table-setter and adds a left-handed bat to a righty-heavy Houston lineup.

McCormick can play center field, so Meyers’ playing time might be most adversely impacted by Brantley’s expected return. Meyers isn’t having a great offensive season, hitting .227/.303/.385 over 304 trips to the plate. He started the year well, but unlike Tucker and McCormick, he has struggled at the dish going back to the beginning of June. Meyers is an excellent defensive center fielder, though. In 710 1/3 innings this season, he has rated between six and eight runs better than average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast. (In his career, he’s been between 13 and 18 runs above average over 1406 frames.) Plugging Brantley in left, pushing McCormick to center, and moving Meyers to the bench should improve the lineup but will downgrade the defense.

It’s an enviable “problem” to have. Potentially juggling four starting-caliber outfielders helps Houston’s chances of tracking down their in-state rivals in a closely contested AL West. There’s likely to be some degree of concern about Brantley’s shoulder holding up down the stretch. Perhaps he or Alvarez could rotate through first base on occasion, at least while José Abreu is out. However Baker manages it, the outfield looks like a strength for the Astros as they enter the home stretch. And, with each of Alvarez (signed through 2028), Tucker (controlled through 2025), McCormick (controlled through 2026) and Meyers (controlled through 2027) standing as long-term pieces, their outfield outlook looks increasingly bright.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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