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Kris Bryant Rumors: Deadline Day

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With free agency looming in November, Kris Bryant has likely already played his last game as a Cub.  The 29-year-old sports a 132 wRC+ in 374 plate appearances this year, and has shown versatility in playing at least 80 innings at both infield corners and all three outfield positions.  With a $19.5MM salary on the season, Bryant is still owed about $6.5MM this year.  The 2016 NL MVP winner seems quite likely to be traded today, if the Cubs can muster up a return better than a compensatory draft pick.  We’ll put the latest Bryant updates right here…

Latest Updates

  • The Giants and Bryant “are one pairing to watch,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  The Cubs are making trades left and right, sending Craig Kimbrel to the White Sox and Javier Baez to the Mets today.

Earlier Updates

  • “It’s not a sure thing that [the] Cubs trade Bryant at all,” tweets Andy Martino of SNY.  That would certainly qualify as a surprise.
  • The Rays are talking with the Cubs about both Bryant and Craig Kimbrel, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  Rosenthal notes that the Cubs may not necessarily package the two together, and a deal does not appear to be close.
  • The Mets and Cubs “remain apart in Kris Bryant talks,” tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Craig Kimbrel Rumors: Deadline Day

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The market is heating up for star reliever Craig Kimbrel, who looks likely to wind up traded before this afternoon’s deadline. With the Cubs moving players off the big league roster, there’s little reason to hold onto Kimbrel at a time when his value is almost certainly at its apex.

The eight-time All-Star is having as good a season as he’s ever had, pitching to an incredible 0.49 ERA/1.83 SIERA over 36 2/3 innings. He’s playing out the year on a $16MM salary (around $5.6MM of which is still owed) and is under team control next season via a club option at a matching price. Unsurprisingly, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that multiple teams are in conversations with the Cubs regarding the 32-year-old.

Here’s the latest chatter on Kimbrel:

Latest Updates

  • While the Dodgers are “kicking around” the idea of adding Kimbrel, his landing in L.A. seems unlikely, reports Rosenthal. The Rays, whom Rosenthal reported this morning have been in talks with the Cubs about both Kimbrel and Kris Bryant, remain involved.

Earlier Reports

  • Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the Dodgers were exploring the market earlier this week, and they have continued interest, he reiterates today. It has been a whirlwind deadline season for Los Angeles, who has already added Danny Duffy and is apparently soon to acquire Trea Turner and Max Scherzer.
  • The White Sox already picked up one quality reliever from the Cubs — Ryan Tepera — yesterday. They’re apparently at least kicking around the idea of making another move with their crosstown rivals. The two Chicago clubs are having discussions about a potential Kimbrel deal, reports David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago (on Twitter).
  • Kimbrel’s first club, the Braves, checked in on a reunion, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). However, Atlanta does not “see itself as a factor” in the market at the moment.

Mets Eyeing Multiple Cubs Players, Trevor Story

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The Mets and Cubs have discussed various permutations of deals including right-hander Zach Davies and one of Kris Bryant or Javier Baez, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets are looking for pitching depth and a bat, with Bryant, Baez and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story among their targets. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders tweets that the Mets are “very” interested in Story, though Saunders has also suggested that if the Rockies trade Story, it’ll likely happen close to the actual deadline.

Reports connecting the Mets to Bryant, in particular, date back to the offseason. He’d give the Mets the right-handed bat they covet and a defensive upgrade over the reportedly available J.D. Davis at third base, in addition to providing a corner outfield option depending on injuries or pitching matchups. Baez, meanwhile, could step in for the currently injured Francisco Lindor until he’s able to return next month, then slide over to second base. That same scenario could apply to Story.

Of the three bats in question, Bryant is having far and away the best all-around season. The former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is slashing .267/.358/.503 with 18 home runs. Bryant endured a miserable slump in June, collecting just nine hits in 88 plate appearances and going all month without a multi-hit game, but he’s bounced back in July with a hearty .290/.405/.516 showing. He’s earning $19.5MM in 2021 and comes with the highest price tag of this high-profile trio.

Baez, earning $11.65MM in his final year of club control, has shown the most power of the bunch but also the most concerning levels of plate discipline. He’s ripped 22 homers, but as his .248/.292/.484 slash shows, his on-base abilities (or lack thereof) are somewhat troublesome. Baez has walked at just a 4.2 percent clip this year, and while he’s always been a free swinger, his current 36.3 strikeout rate is the worst among all qualified hitters. That said, he and Lindor would form a dynamic defensive middle infield tandem.

The 28-year-old Story, like Baez and Bryant, is a free agent at season’s end. He’s having arguably the worst season of his career in 2021, hitting .240/.312/.429 (84 wRC+) with 13 home runs. Eight of those long balls have come since June 20. On the one hand, that’s encouraging. On the other, he’s batted .211 with a .270 OBP in that time. Story’s track record speaks for itself — he batted .292/.355/.554 with 83 home runs from 2018-20 — but he hasn’t really found much consistency in 2021. He’s earning $18.5MM this season.

As for Davies, he’d provide the Mets with a rental starter to help cover innings at the back of the rotation while their top starters mend. Jacob deGrom is currently on the injured list, while neither Noah Syndergaard nor Carlos Carrasco has thrown a pitch for the Mets so far in 2021. (Carrasco is expected to return this weekend.) The need for help at the back of the rotation has been exacerbated by injuries to David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and others.

Even among the Mets’ healthy starters, right-hander Taijuan Walker has begun to struggle, allowing 16 runs in his past 9 1/3 innings. The Mets already went out and acquired Rich Hill, but it seems they’re still understandably keen on stockpiling as much depth as possible for the final couple months of the season — and for a hopeful postseason bid.

The 28-year-old Davies has made 22 starts and pitched to a 4.39 ERA for the Cubs, but he’s averaged fewer than five innings per outing and carries some rather unsightly strikeout and walk rates. Davies’ 16.3 percent strikeout rate is third-lowest among qualified starters, while his 12.1 percent walk rate is the highest of any qualified starter in MLB. That 4.2 K-BB% differential is also last among qualified starters. Given that profile and the fact that he’s a pending free agent with an $8.625MM salary, Davies probably doesn’t carry too much standalone value.

It’s been a mostly quiet deadline season thus far for the Mets, who lead the NL East by three and a half games. The second-place Phillies, however, completed their second improbable walk-off comeback of the week yesterday to continue putting pressure on their rivals. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweeted last night that owner Steve Cohen is pushing his front office to be active and improve the club, so it seems fair to anticipate some fireworks coming from Queens today.

Cubs Trade Anthony Rizzo To Yankees

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In a surprise move, the Yankees acquired three-time All-Star Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs this afternoon, both teams announced. The move brings to an end Rizzo’s nine-year tenure on the North Side. In exchange, Chicago will pick up a pair of prospects: outfielder Kevin Alcantara and right-hander Alexander Vizcaino.

It’s the second big deadline acquisition for the Yankees, who just yesterday swung a deal for another corner bat in Joey Gallo. The front office continues to bolster the offense, adding another above-average hitter to a lineup that has underperformed expectations over the course of the year. It doesn’t hurt that Rizzo — like Gallo — hits from the left side, adding balance to an order that was extremely right-handed heavy two days ago.

Rizzo is no longer the player he was at his peak, but there’s no doubt he’ll be a boost to the Yankees order. The 31-year-old is hitting .248/.346/.446 (115 wRC+) with 14 home runs across 376 plate appearances. He’s been an above-average bat in every season of his career, outside of a brief run as a rookie with the 2012 Padres. Rizzo doesn’t strike out often, punching out in just 15.7% of his plate appearances this season while making contact on an above-average 81.8% of his swings. Both figures are right in line with his career marks.

Those bat-to-ball skills should appeal to fans concerned about the Yankees’ whiff-heavy offense. New York has a 24.5% strikeout rate as a team (excluding pitchers), the sixth-highest mark in MLB. The acquisition of Gallo only figures to increase that tendency (although the slugger more than offsets the whiffs with huge power and walk totals). Rizzo’s much more likely to put the ball in play, albeit without as much impact as some of the Yankees’ other middle-of-the-order players. He still makes plenty of hard contact, but that hasn’t translated into huge extra-base output this year. Rizzo’s .198 ISO (slugging minus batting average) and barrel rate are both above-average but no longer elite.

Of course, the Yankees incumbent first baseman is among the right-handed power types that make up a good chunk of the roster. Luke Voit led MLB with 22 home runs in 2020 and is reportedly nearing a return from the 10-day injured list. His name surfaced in surprising trade rumors this morning, though, and it now seems fairly likely he’ll find himself on the move before tomorrow afternoon’s deadline. With Rizzo at first base and Giancarlo Stanton at designated hitter, there wouldn’t seem to be much room for Voit.

New York could see a Voit transaction as a way to clear some payroll space. The 30-year-old is making $4.7MM this season (with a matching luxury tax number) in his first year of arbitration. He’s still due around $1.6MM of that money for the rest of the season. Voit is controllable for three additional campaigns via arbitration.

Clearly, New York is working extremely hard to stay below the $210MM luxury tax threshold. The Yankees CBT figure is a bit below $206MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. New York has gotten the Rangers and Cubs to absorb the entirety of Gallo’s and Rizzo’s respective salaries as part of their ongoing effort not to take on any additional obligations.

Of course, doing so requires parting with more talented prospects. The Cubs seem to have done well in adding Alcantara and Vizcaino, both of whom ranked among the top 15 minor league talents in the organization on Baseball America’s midseason update. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs also ranked the duo highly, slotting Alcantara as the sport’s #120 overall prospect entering the year.

Alcantara, 19, draws praise for his projectable frame and chance to grow into big power. A center fielder now, he might grow out of the position, but he’s a high-upside addition to the lower levels of the Cubs’ farm system. Alcantara’s playing in the rookie level Arizona Complex League, so he’s years from the majors — similar to the group of players Chicago picked up from the Padres in last winter’s Yu Darvish trade.

Vizcaino’s a nearer-term addition. He’s topped out at High-A, but the changeup specialist is already 24 years old and was selected to the 40-man roster last offseason. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining after this season. Longenhagen suggests his delivery likely points to a bullpen future, but he’s been a starting pitcher to this point in his career. Vizcaino hasn’t pitched much this season due to injury, but he tossed 115 innings of 4.38 ERA ball across two levels of A-ball back in 2019.

Alcantara and Vizcaino makes for a solid return on-paper, since Rizzo will hit free agency at the end of the season. There’s no question, though, that his departure will be a bitter pill to swallow for many Cubs fans. Rizzo was one of the faces of the Cubs most successful runs in decades, and a beloved figure on the 2016 World Series team. For many on the North Side, it’ll hurt to see him go — no matter the regard of the players the team received in return.

It’s likely only the beginning for Chicago, who still figures to market Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel and perhaps Javier Báez within the next day. Like Rizzo, Bryant and Báez will reach free agency at the end of the season, and the Cubs are obvious deadline sellers. Chicago has reportedly made some efforts at a Báez extension, but that was also true of Rizzo and ultimately didn’t come to fruition. The Rizzo trade is the biggest move yet in should be a series of transactions for the Cubs in the coming hours.

Jack Curry of YES Network was first to report the sides were nearing agreement on a Rizzo trade, as well as the identities of the prospects involved and the Cubs assumption of the salary. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the deal had been completed.

Cubs Trade Ryan Tepera To White Sox

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The Cubs announced Thursday that they’ve traded right-handed reliever Ryan Tepera to the White Sox in exchange for minor league left-hander Bailey Horn. The White Sox announced that righty Evan Marshall has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot for Tepera. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported (via Twitter) that the two sides had agreed to a Tepera deal just before the formal announcement.

Ryan Tepera | Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Tepera, 33, has been a rock-solid bullpen option for the Cubs over the past two seasons, tallying 64 innings of 3.23 ERA ball with an excellent 31.9 percent strikeout rate, a 9.4 percent walk rate and a 44.8 percent walk rate. He’s playing the season on a one-year, $800K contract that comes with $1MM of very attainable incentives. He’s already unlocked $300K of those incentives and is on the cusp of reaching several other bonuses. He’ll take home $100K for appearing in his 45th game — he’s currently at 43 — and will earn $150K for reaching 50 and 55 games apiece. His 60th game comes with a $200K bonus, and Tepera will also unlock another $50K when he spends his 120th on the active roster.

Even with those incentives, he’s been nothing short of a bargain for the Cubs and will give the White Sox an eminently affordable late-inning arm to help solidify the bullpen. That’s key for the White Sox, who are running away with the American League Central but have had a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for much of the season. White Sox relievers rank 15th in the Majors with a combined 4.10 ERA. Tepera can help lower that mark, and his outstanding strikeout rate is lofty enough that it could be an improvement even over Chicago’s combined 27.6 percent mark, which ranks fourth among MLB bullpens.

Horn, 23, was the White Sox’ third-round pick out of Auburn just last summer. The 6’2″, 210-pound lefty breezed through 27 1/3 innings of Class-A this season, pitching to a 2.63 ERA with a 32-to-7 K/BB ratio and a hefty 56.7 percent grounder rate against younger opponents before being bumped to Class-A Advanced. He’s allowed 16 runs in 11 innings there, due largely to 11 walks issued, but it’s a small sample of innings for a pitcher making his pro debut.

Horn ranked 30th among White Sox farmhands at FanGraphs, 25th at Baseball America and No. 23 over at MLB.com. BA writes that Horn sits 90-94 mph with his heater and has a pair of above-average breaking balls, but his command is a red flag that holds him back. He’ll add a college arm with a bit of draft pedigree to a Cubs system that is currently heavier on positions players than on pitchers.

Mets’ J.D. Davis Available In Trades

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The Mets have made slugging corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis available in trades, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As was rumored throughout the offseason, McDaniel notes that some execs have speculated the Mets could be hoping to include Davis as part of a package to acquire a prominent name such as Kris Bryant or Trevor Story. Nothing involving Davis is close at this time, he adds.

That Davis’ name has again surfaced in rumors only feels natural, given how prominently he was cited in offseason rumblings. The 28-year-old has been an oft-cited trade possibility despite being a vastly above-average hitter during his time with the Mets — in part due to questions about his glovework. Davis’ defense was put under a microscope early this year, in particular, when he made three errors at third base in a span of two games. He’s missed most of the season since that time, owing to a finger injury, but he hasn’t made an error since that time — a span of 18 games and 26 chances at the hot corner.

That’s not to say concerns about Davis’ glove are without merit.  He’s spent 944 career innings at third base and posted -21 Defensive Runs Saved, a -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating and -10 Outs Above Average. It’s not a great profile, and the Mets have also tried Davis in left field. His former club, the Astros, gave him some brief looks at first base, too.

Setting the defensive question marks aside, though, the draw of Davis is very clearly his bat — and with good reason. He’s absolutely raked in 89 plate appearances this season, hitting .325/.416/.545 with four long balls and five doubles. That’s not just a total small-sample fluke, either; since being traded to the Mets, Davis has produced .292/.375/.490 batting line with 32 home runs and 36 doubles in just 771 plate appearances. He’s been 33 percent better than a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. That’s borderline star-level production at the plate, as that 133 wRC+ places him right alongside the likes of Rafael Devers, Jesse Winker, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and teammate Pete Alonso since the start of the 2019 season. Davis, quite simply, can mash.

Beyond his talent at the plate, Davis offers a long-term option for interested trade partners. He’s earning $2.1MM in 2021 as a first-time arbitration player. Davis reached arbitration a year early as a Super Two player, meaning he’s controllable for three more years beyond the current season. He can be expected to put up some strong counting numbers moving forward, which ought to make his subsequent arbitration raises notable, but this year’s missed time on the injured list will suppress his 2022 salary a bit, at the very least.

There’s no pressure for the Mets to move Davis, given that remaining control. In fact, with most expecting the universal designated hitter to come to the National League in 2022, one could argue that Davis’ value will only go up for the Mets (although the also have both Dominic Smith and Alonso, so they certainly have first base/DH options elsewhere on the roster). As was the case in the offseason, it seems likelier that the win-now Mets would move Davis in a deal to bring back MLB talent rather than prospects.

Cubs, Giants Have Reportedly Discussed Kris Bryant Trade

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July 28: Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets that the Giants are “backing off” any proposals from the Cubs which center around Bart.

The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser recently reported that among Giants top prospects, Bart may be the “most” available, but that doesn’t means the club is flat-out shopping him or willing to include him for a high-priced rental player such as Bryant (or the majority of Chicago’s other trade candidates).

July 27: The Giants and Cubs have had discussions about a possible Kris Bryant trade, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Chicago is evaluating San Francisco catcher Joey Bart as a possible part of those conversations, according to Morosi, although he unsurprisingly adds the Giants aren’t likely to give up Bart for Bryant alone.

Bryant has plenty of experience at third base and all throughout the outfield, making him a viable fit on the rosters of plenty of contenders. San Francisco’s expected to get Evan Longoria back from the injured list next month, so the front office is likely eyeing Bryant as a potential outfield pickup. Giants left fielders (primarily Alex Dickerson) have a below-average .214/.288/.395 slash line this season.

Bryant could also offer some cover in center field. Steven Duggar has had a great season, but he’d never before hit at anything near his current .284/.358/.484 clip. Moreover, Duggar’s current .405 batting average on balls in play is unsustainably high, masking an alarming 31.6% strikeout rate.

Finances might be a concern for many clubs interested in Bryant (like the Rays, reported to have had preliminary discussions about a potential deal this morning). The 29-year-old is making $19.5MM this season, his final before hitting free agency. About $7.13MM is still owed for the remainder of the year.

That tab shouldn’t pose much of a problem for the Giants, who have ample financial flexibility. Ownership has previously approved payrolls above $200MM, but their current figure is in the $150-152MM range in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource. San Francisco’s nowhere near the luxury tax line, so there should be room for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and general manager Scott Harris (a former Cubs’ assistant GM) to spend to upgrade a roster that currently leads the Dodgers by two games in the NL West.

Of course, Bart would be an ambitious ask for less than half a season’s worth of work from Bryant alone (although he is reportedly the most likely Giants top prospect to move in the next few days). The former #2 overall pick hasn’t yet found major league success, but he’s a highly-touted young talent. Baseball America slotted the right-handed hitting backstop as the game’s #22 overall prospect in their updated top 100 list this week. While Buster Posey has catcher locked down at the big league level in San Francisco this year, Bart has had a strong campaign at Triple-A Sacramento. The 24-year-old is hitting .310/.372/.532 in 188 plate appearances, his first crack at the minors’ highest level.

There’s no indication the Giants and Cubs are in specific discussions on players other than Bryant, although it’s possible the sides could work out some sort of package deal. Speculatively speaking, relivers Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera could hold appeal to a Giants bullpen that has pitched well but is generally short on past high-leverage experience. Kimbrel would be the more impactful — but far more expensive — pickup. He’s playing out the season on a $16MM salary (about $5.85MM of which remains), with a $16MM club/vesting option for 2022. Tepera, meanwhile, is making an $800K salary and will reach free agency at the end of the year.

Bryant: “Absolutely” Willing To Return To Cubs In Free Agency If Traded

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With the Cubs selling off established players on the big league roster, Kris Bryant is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates. The 29-year-old is slated to hit free agency this winter, and past extension discussions with the Cubs haven’t resulted in a deal.

Even if Bryant does wind up changing uniforms in the next few days, he’d remain open to returning to the North Side via free agency. “Oh yeah, absolutely,” Bryant replied when asked if he’d be willing to sign with the Cubs this winter if they trade him midseason (via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). “Like I’ve said, I love this place. It’s all I’ve known. The familiarity of being here and this city and the people make it a lot easier to say, ‘Yeah, of course, I’d love to play here.”

That’s not to say such a situation is likely. The Cubs haven’t spent at particularly high levels in free agency over the past few seasons, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has previously spoken about there being inevitable turnover on the roster in 2022 and beyond. Bryant also didn’t give any indication he’d take any sort of discount to return to Chicago.

Nevertheless, it’s at least a bit notable the former NL MVP would be happy to return to the Cubs after being traded if that situation happened to present itself. Bryant’s willingness to stay in Chicago beyond his initial window of team control has been the subject of some speculation since the Cubs held him in the minors to open the 2015 season in order to gain an extra year of control over his services. Bryant’s camp filed a grievance (which he ultimately lost), although the four-time All-Star has perennially maintained that situation would not preclude him from signing a long-term deal with the Cubs.

It remains to be seen where Bryant will end up for the season’s final couple months, although it seems a near certainty he’ll be traded. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Rays had had “preliminary discussions” about a potential Bryant acquisition.

Latest On Interest In Cubs’ Trade Chips

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12:41PM: The White Sox and Red Sox are two of at least seven teams interested in Kimbrel, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine writes, while the White Sox have also scouted another Cubs reliever in Ryan Tepera.

10:49AM: The Cubs completed another trade last night in sending Andrew Chafin to the Athletics, setting the stage for what should be a very busy week of transactions for Chicago in advance of Friday’s 3pm CT trade deadline.  Many of the biggest names remain, and rumors continue to circulate about where these top names could land.

Closer Craig Kimbrel is drawing much of the buzz, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Padres are among the teams interested in the veteran reliever.  While many of the Cubs’ most notable trade chips are rental players, Kimbrel is controlled through the 2022 season due to a $16MM club option.  He also has around $5.5MM remaining in salary for this season, so he isn’t an entirely inexpensive proposition for a team looking at the right-hander as just a rental.

This is a particular factor for a team like the Padres, who are facing a luxury tax overage for the first time in franchise history.  Team ownership is willing to make that leap beyond the $210MM payroll threshold, though the Padres are naturally exploring ways (such as unloading Eric Hosmer’s contract) to avoid the tax if at all possible.

The Red Sox “have at least had preliminary conversations ” with the Cubs about first baseman Anthony Rizzo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports, which seems like a natural fit considering how little production the Sox have received from the first base position this season.  Boston is the first team officially linked to Rizzo on the rumor mill, as Passan writes that Rizzo’s market “is not so robust” since he is a veteran position player who is a free agent after the year.

In fact, there has been more speculation about Rizzo possibly staying with the Cubs rather than leaving, even though extension talks in Spring Training failed to produce a new contract.  Recent reports suggested that the Cubs would look to again discuss extensions with both Rizzo and Javier Baez prior to the deadline, but NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports that “no extension talks are happening with” either player.

This doesn’t mean that either will be traded, however.  In fact, Wittenmyer hears from sources around baseball that the Cubs will be keeping both Baez and Kyle Hendricks beyond Friday’s deadline.  (MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported last night that the Cubs weren’t looking to move Hendricks and that a trade was unlikely.)  It isn’t quite as firm about whether or not Rizzo could remain or be dealt to Boston or another team, but if the first baseman is kept, Wittenmyer writes that the Cubs will again look into extending both Rizzo and Baez before they reach free agency this winter.

Rays Interested In Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Kyle Gibson

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The Rays have already made one big pre-deadline splash in acquiring Nelson Cruz, and more major names seem to be on Tampa’s radar.  According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, the Rays “have had preliminary discussions about” Max Scherzer and Kris Bryant, while FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the Rays are also one of the teams who have spoken to the Rangers about right-hander Kyle Gibson.

As always with Tampa Bay, payroll will be a critical factor in any acquisition, particularly since all of these players represent larger financial commitments than the Rays are usually willing to make.  As Passan notes, however, the Rays’ deep farm system can act as a counterweight to those salaries — the Nationals, Cubs, or Rangers could possibly cover most or all of the remaining salaries for their trade chips if the Rays were willing to include some of their higher-tier minor leaguers.  It can be reasonably assumed that Wander Franco is untouchable in trade talks, but beyond that, the Rays could be willing to budge on other noteworthy prospects if it meant landing a player that could help them win a World Series.

Scherzer presents a particularly interesting case, since the Nationals are solely responsible for the final $7.5MM installment of Scherzer’s original signing bonus, and the roughly $11.8MM remaining of his $35MM salary for 2021 is entirely deferred until 2028.  Beyond just kicking the financial can down the road for much of the decade, the Rays might very well even be in a new city (and have new revenue streams) available by that point, since the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field is up in 2027.

Scherzer would have to okay the move to Tampa by waiving his no-trade clause, and recent reports suggest that he would be more open to playing for a team on the west coast.  This doesn’t necessarily mean Scherzer would veto a proposed move to Tampa Bay, but it is possible the Rays might not get the nod if Scherzer was presented with multiple trade options, such as a potential move to one of the NL West powers.

As one executive recently described matters to Murray, Gibson is maybe the “most unpredictable element” of deadline season.  While someone like Scherzer obviously has a more proven track record, Gibson has been very good in 2021 but has been much more up-and-down over the course of his eight MLB seasons.  Whereas Scherzer and Bryant are free agents after the season, Gibson is controlled through 2022, at the cost of a $7MM salary.  The Rays could see acquiring Gibson as a way of checking off one box for their offseason shopping needs….or, given how Tampa operates, they could flip Gibson themselves this winter to save payroll space.

The Cubs have already moved Joc Pederson and Andrew Chafin in trades, and several other players figure to be departing Wrigleyville prior to Friday’s 3pm CT deadline.  Bryant is widely expected to be dealt, though the shape of the Cubs’ other trades might contribute to what exactly Chicago does in moving the former NL MVP.  Should the Cubs move a significant amount of money off their books in other deals, the team could be more open to absorbing more of Bryant’s salary (around $6.8MM remaining) in order to obtain better prospects from the Rays.

Adding both Cruz and Bryant would represent a major boost to an already-solid Tampa Bay lineup, and Bryant also brings the versatility that a DH-only player like Cruz lacks.  The Rays’ penchant for defensive flexibility could see Bryant used at either corner infield position or anywhere in the outfield, depending on matchups and situations.  Any potential positional logjam could be alleviated by the trade itself, if the Rays sent a position player off their Major League roster back to the Cubs.

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