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Astros To Select Pedro Leon’s Contract

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In the aftermath of tonight’s trade that brought Yusei Kikuchi to Houston in exchange for a three-player trade package, the Astros will fill one of their roster spots with outfield prospect Pedro Leon.  MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (X link) reports that the Astros will select Leon’s contract to the 40-man roster, giving the 26-year-old his first taste of big league baseball.

Baseball America ranked Leon as the top prospect available when he officially signed his $4MM deal with the Astros in 2021, though at age 22, he was significantly older than most members of the 2020-21 international signing class.  He had already played two seasons in Cuba’s National Series before defecting, and he didn’t play at all in 2019 or 2020 due to paperwork delays, the pandemic, and the fact that the Astros didn’t have the bonus pool space to sign him until the 2020-21 window opened.

Leon reached Triple-A Sugar Land before the end of the 2021 season, but he has remained at the top affiliate ever since, hitting .249/.357/.445 with 57 home runs in 1567 total Triple-A appearances.  That slash line includes a marked step up in production this season, as Leon has hit .297/.377/.519 with 19 homers over 424 PA in 2024.

Plenty of caveats abound with these numbers.  Leon is now 26 and playing against generally much younger competition, and batting totals tend to be inflated in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  In addition, his .374 BABIP suggests a lot of batted-ball fortune, and his 8.7% is the lowest of his three full Triple-A seasons.  Leon has slightly reduced his strikeout rate from past years, but only to 26.2%.

MLB Pipeline ranks Leon 24th among all Astros prospects, with Baseball America putting him 29th in their evaluation of Houston’s farm system.  The strikeouts are naturally a big concern in regards to how Leon might fare against Major League pitching, even if Leon does show good power than he does make contact.  He has plus speed (86 steals in 121 attempts at Sugar Land) and a very strong throwing arm but is considered an average fielder at best, likely suited for corner outfield work.

Kyle Tucker’s continued stint on the injured list has left a big hole in Houston’s outfield, though it might be hard for Leon to find consistent playing time with Trey Cabbage, Chas McCormick, and utilityman Mauricio Dubon ahead of him on the depth chart.  Leon is a right-handed hitter, adding to an Astros roster that already tilts toward the right side.

Yankees, Pirates, Astros In The Mix For Yandy Diaz

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9:38pm: In addition to the Yankees, both the Pirates and Astros are engaged with the Rays on Diaz, reports Cuban journalist Francys Romero.

Both teams make some sense for Diaz, though the Astros’ fit is clearer and more straightforward. Houston released Jose Abreu earlier this summer and has received a middling .232/.316/.354 output from Jon Singleton in his stead. The ’Stros already depleted the top end of a thin farm to acquire Yusei Kikuchi earlier tonight, however, making it tougher for them to win any kind of bidding war for a player of note.

The Pirates’ need at first base has quieted as they’ve enjoyed a resurgence from Rowdy Tellez since the calendar flipped to June. The lefty slugger touts a .331/.370/.595 line over his past 135 plate appearances. That said, Tellez has notable platoon splits in his career, and Diaz could also log time at both third base and designated hitter — particularly if the Bucs are comfortable playing Andrew McCutchen in the outfield more frequently. (Notably, outfielders Joshua Palacios and Ji Hwan Bae both exited tonight’s game with injuries.) More than anything, Pittsburgh simply needs more offense, so acquiring a quality hitter like Diaz and sorting out the playing time later has its own merits, even if the positional fit is less clean with Tellez’s recent hot streak and a franchise icon (McCutchen) serving as a near-everyday designated hitter.

8:35pm: The Yankees have been active in just about every facet of the trade market over the past week. They’ve landed Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins, looked into big-name starters like Giants lefty Blake Snell and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty, and simultaneously been gauging interest in lefty Nestor Cortes. Among the team’s other targets is Rays infielder Yandy Diaz, per The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty. The Yankees were also involved in the bidding for Isaac Paredes before he was traded to the Cubs, Kuty adds.

Adding some infield help makes good sense for the Yankees, who have Anthony Rizzo on the injured list while veterans Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu have struggled throughout the season. Utilityman Jon Berti, acquired just prior to Opening Day, is on the injured list. Versatile Oswaldo Cabrera has faded after a hot start. Rookie Ben Rice has shown some power but entered play Monday hitting .196 with a .291 OBP (he’s since homered and bumped up those rate stats a bit). A brief look at veteran J.D. Davis didn’t work out.

Bringing Diaz aboard would give the Yankees an affordable veteran who can handle both infield corners, though he’s primarily played first base in recent seasons. The 32-year-old Diaz got out to a dreadful start in 2024 but turned things around emphatically after a slow first month. His season-long .270/.326/.397 line is more solid than it is eye-catching, but setting aside an uncharacteristic slump to begin the season, Diaz has turned in a robust .296/.348/.452 slash over a sample of just under 300 plate appearances. His superlative bat-to-ball skills have been on full display, as Diaz has fanned in a mere 13.7% of his plate appearances during that stretch and walked at a 7.5% clip. That walk rate is slightly below average, but Diaz has an 11.5% career mark in that regard.

Diaz’s approach is a particularly good fit with Yankee Stadium. Although he’s a right-handed hitter, he hits the ball to the opposite field at a hearty 30.3% rate — more than all but 16 hitters in baseball (min. 300 plate appearances). Diaz is batting .333 and slugging .505 when he goes the other way with the ball — numbers that would presumably tick up when playing half his games with that ever-alluring short right-field porch in the Bronx.

Diaz is in the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract. He’s earning $8MM on the year and is owed $10MM in 2025. There’s a $12MM club option for the 2026 campaign on the contract as well, which does not have a buyout. That backloaded contract is relatively steep for the Rays but far more palatable for the Yankees, even with their luxury-tax status. The Yankees are a third-time offender in the top tier of penalization, meaning they’d pay a 110% tax on the AAV of any contracts they add to the books. That creates some short-term pain, perhaps, but Diaz’s deal is more affordable than many free-agent options would be and the fact that he’s locked up through ’26 makes him an appealing multi-year option.

Marlins Claim David Hensley From Astros

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The Marlins announced that they have claimed infielder David Hensley off waivers from the Astros. The latter club designated him for assignment a week ago. The Marlins already had a vacancy on their 40-man roster and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

Hensley, 28, was selected to Houston’s 40-man roster in August of 2022 but has only played in 46 big league games since then, slashing a paltry .177/.273/.274 in those contests. His work in the minors has been better, but has also tailed off lately.

He slashed .298/.420/.478 at Triple-A in 2022, which led to a 130 wRC+ and Hensley getting the call to the big leagues. But he’s hit just .228/.358/.367 in 651 Triple-A plate appearances over 2023 and 2024, with that production translating to an 86 wRC+.

The Marlins had an open roster spot and there’s little harm in taking a shot on Hensley to see if his results bounce back. Despite the tepid results overall, he’s drawing walks in 15.1% of his plate appearances this year and can play all four infield spots, as well as the outfield corners. He’s also a threat for double-digit steals most of the time with 17 so far this year. He can be optioned for the rest of this year and one more season beyond that. He also has less than a year of service time and can be a long-term piece if he manages to carve out a role.

Astros Interested In Flaherty, Kikuchi

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The Astros are one of the teams most aggressively seeking starting pitching. They’ve already been tied to Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde, and (before he was traded to Baltimore instead) Zach Eflin. Reporting yesterday also linked Houston to the top two rental starting pitchers on the market.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted last night that the Astros and Tigers have talked about righty Jack Flaherty. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome writes that Houston has interest in both Flaherty and Toronto southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Flaherty and Kikuchi are each expected to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. The left-hander told reporters after last night’s start — almost certainly his last in a Jays uniform — that Toronto GM Ross Atkins has already informed him that he’s likely to be traded (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Tigers haven’t made quite as strong a declaration on Flaherty, but they’re three games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the American League’s last Wild Card spot.

Flaherty is having the better season of the two. The 28-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He owns a 2.95 earned run average across 18 starts. He’s averaging nearly six innings per appearance and missing bats at an elite rate. Flaherty has punched out a personal-best 32% of opposing hitters. His walk rate is below 5% for the first time in his career. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Garrett Crochet has a bigger gap between his strikeout and walk percentages. Flaherty is fifth among that group in strikeout rate, 14th in ERA and seventh in swinging strike percentage (14.1%).

Kikuchi also has plus strikeout and walk numbers, though he’s not missing quite as many bats as Flaherty has. Kikuchi is 24th in swinging strike rate and ranks 18th with a 26.2% strikeout percentage. He has fired 115 2/3 innings across 22 starts. His 4.75 ERA isn’t all that impressive, yet that mark is inflated by a very high .340 average on balls in play and a modest 70.6% strand rate. Kikuchi’s BABIP and left on base numbers were closer to league average last season, when he worked to a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts.

Astros general manager Dana Brown discussed his rotation pursuit with reporters on Friday afternoon (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Brown said the team would be happy with a “a third starter or a fourth starter” who could slot behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and perhaps a healthy Justin Verlander in the rotation. (Ronel Blanco has also had an excellent season, but he’s in uncharted territory in terms of MLB workload.) Brown said it’d be “real difficult” to land someone who slots into the top two spots in the rotation, pointing to the lack of supply in high-end arms this summer.

One can debate whether Flaherty qualifies as a #1/#2 arm. He has certainly pitched at that level this year, but he’s one season removed from running a 4.99 ERA with middling strikeout and walk numbers. Kikuchi fits more clearly into the #3/4 starter bucket which Brown described, as home run issues have kept him from ever reaching a consistent top-of-the-rotation level.

While that could point to Kikuchi being the more likely target, the Astros seem engaged on a number of fronts. Houston has one of the weaker farm systems in the majors, but the limited control window on Flaherty and Kikuchi will cap the return to some extent. Brown noted that while he’d ideally land a pitcher who is controllable beyond this season, the Astros aren’t averse to acquiring a rental. He added that there’s no one in the minor league pipeline he’d consider categorically untouchable, though he indicated he preferred to avoid dealing directly off the MLB roster.

Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player who made Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect update. The Tigers could justifiably ask for him in a Flaherty deal. Detroit has the ability to make Flaherty a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him this summer. Assuming he signs for more than $50MM next winter, the Tigers would get a compensatory pick after the 2025 first round. They’d need to value any trade package more heavily than they do the pick (plus whatever small chance they have of making a playoff push this year). Jake Bloss, who is currently working out of the big league rotation, is the #2 player on BA’s most recent update of the Astros’ system. He’s followed by 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews and another current big leaguer, outfielder Joey Loperfido.

Flaherty is playing this season on a $14MM salary, while Kikuchi is making $10MM in the final season of a backloaded three-year deal. The former is due around $4.82M for the stretch run; the latter is still owed around $3.44MM. Any salary the Astros take on would count against their luxury tax ledger, which already sits at a franchise-high $256MM (calculated by RosterResource).

The Astros will be taxed at a 32% rate for salary they absorb when their payroll is between $257MM and $277MM. Brown broadly indicated the team was open to adding salary, saying that owner Jim Crane “understands that it’s important for us to get a starter … so I don’t think payroll is going to hold us back.”

Notable Draft Signings: 7/26/24

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The Rays signed their first-rounder to a significant bonus on Friday evening. We’ll round up a few other $2MM+ signings from the day. Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • The Astros have a $3.13MM deal with first-round pick Walker Janek, reports Chandler Rome of the Athletic (X link). That’s slot value for the 28th pick. A Sam Houston State product, Janek was the first catcher selected. Evaluators praise his arm strength and athleticism behind the dish. There’s not much question that he’ll be able to stick at the position. Janek feasted on mid-major pitching with a .364/.476/.709 slash as a junior, but his defense should drive the profile.
  • Reds second-round pick Tyson Lewis received a well overslot $3.0475MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (on X). That was necessary to keep the Nebraska high schooler from attending the University of Arkansas. Evaluators credit the 6’2″ shortstop with plus bat speed and athleticism. Lewis is a longer-term development play who didn’t face great competition in high school. There’s a fair amount of volatility with his hit tool but an intriguing toolset.
  • The Brewers also went above slot on their second-rounder. Milwaukee has a $2.5MM agreement with 57th pick Bryce Meccage, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link). A right-handed prep pitcher from New Jersey, he’s a Virginia commit. Meccage is a 6’4″ hurler who works in the low-mid 90s and shows a pair of promising breaking pitches. Law’s report notes that the young pitcher has subpar command at the moment but enough athleticism to develop in that regard. Meccage is regarded as a potential back-end starter.

Rangers Among Clubs With Interest In Yandy Díaz

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Rays infielder Yandy Díaz has been on the restricted list for almost a week while attending to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rays announced that they reinstated him today. They already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so this move brings their count to 38. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed on X earlier that the club was hopeful of Díaz returning tonight. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last night that the Rangers are interested in adding him to their lineup. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says on X that the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are possible suitors, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs have engaged with the Rays.

Díaz, now 32, has been a fixture of the Rays for many years. He came to Tampa from Cleveland heading into 2019 as part of the three-team trade and quickly worked his way into being a regular for the Rays. From the start of 2019 to the present, he has drawn walks in 11.6% of his plate appearances while only striking out 14.5% of the time. His .288/.375/.439 batting line translates to a 133 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% better than league average overall.

That offense is his best attribute. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his third base defense was poorly regarded, though he’s been closer to average at first base and has been more or less permanently moved to that side of the diamond. But the 133 wRC+ that Díaz has put up from 2019 to the present is one of the top 15 marks in baseball among qualified hitters, highlighting that such consistently above-average production is hard to find.

Here in 2024, his season-long stats look mildly disappointing, a .273/.329/.396 line and 111 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a brutal start that he has put behind him. He hit .211/.279/.276 through May 1 but his line of .302/.354/.453 since that time leads to a 134 wRC+, right in line with his overall track record.

The Rays don’t strictly have to move him but their behavior suggests he’s available. Going into 2023, he and the Rays signed an extension that runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He’ll make $10MM next year with the option valued at $12MM.

Tampa could certainly keep him but they have shown, both recently and in the past, that they are generally unafraid to move players nearing free agency. Although they are 52-51 this year and just four games out of a playoff spot, they have already traded Aaron Civale, Phil Maton and Randy Arozarena in recent weeks.

Some recent reporting suggested the Rays were more likely to trade arbitrations players than those signed to long-term deals, but that contradicts their past behavior. Players like Evan Longoria, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot have all signed extensions and then been traded before those contracts ended, so there’s no real reason to believe the Rays won’t be open to trade offers on Díaz.

Doing so wouldn’t even be a signal that the club is giving up on 2024, as players like Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead could fill in at first base. Jonathan Aranda is currently hurt but could be in the mix later. Infielders like Junior Caminero, Austin Shenton and Osleivis Basabe could be called up to fill in elsewhere around the infield. In the long term, Xavier Isaac is a first baseman and considered one of the top 50 prospects in the league, though he’s yet to reach Double-A.

For the Rangers, Rosenthal relays that they are looking for “either a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH or a platoon-neutral right-handed hitter.” Díaz is better against lefties but isn’t a liability without the platoon advantage. He has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws in his career and a 121 wRC+ against righties. It’s a far wider split of 151 and 99 this year, though in a much smaller sample size.

Texas hitters have a collective line of .237/.309/.378 against right-handed pitching, with that line leading to a 93 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven clubs in that split. They have Nathaniel Lowe at first base but don’t really have a regular designated hitter and should be able to fit both him and Díaz into the same lineup.

The Rays and Mariners already lined up on one deal, sending the aforementioned Arozarena to Seattle as the M’s look for more offense. Díaz could further augment their lineup, especially with the struggling Ty France have been recently designated for assignment and leaving an opening at first base. They have plugged Tyler Locklear into that spot but he has only 40 major league plate appearances thus far.

The Astros also cut ties with a struggling first baseman, releasing José Abreu earlier this year. They have mostly used Jon Singleton to fill that hole but he’s hitting just .231/.319/.343 this year for a 93 wRC+.

The Pirates have a bit less of a dire need as they held onto their struggling first baseman and were rewarded with a bounceback. Rowdy Tellez was hitting .177/.239/.223 through the end of May but has a line of .328/.364/.588 since the calendar flipped to June. His season-long line is still subpar thanks to that early slump but the Pirates probably feel less inclined to replaced Tellez on the heels of his hot streak this summer. They have Andrew McCutchen in the designated hitter spot most days, which makes the lineup fit a bit less clean unless they plan on moving on from Tellez, who is a free agent at season’s end.

Both the Astros and Rangers are set to pay the competitive balance tax at season’s end, so they may have to consider the taxes involved in taking on the Díaz contract. The Astros are set to be a first-time payor and have a base rate of 20% but RosterResource has their CBT number at $256MM. Crossing over the $257MM second tier would increase their tax rate to 32% for spending beyond that line. Recent reporting suggested they are trying to move Rafael Montero’s contract to lessen their tax burden but doing so will be difficult given his poor results of late. RosterResource has the Rangers at $249MM but they are set to be a second-time payor and have a base tax rate of 30%.

Astros Interested In Erick Fedde, Jameson Taillon

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The Astros are prioritizing starting pitching before Tuesday’s deadline. They seem to be casting a wide net in their pursuit of at least a mid-rotation arm. This morning, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed the Astros among the teams in on Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin is one of many arms on their radar.

Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Astros and Cardinals are among 10 teams in contact with the White Sox about Erick Fedde. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend. Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic report that the Astros are also among the teams in the mix for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, a Houston-area native.

Both pitchers have performed like #3 caliber starters this season. Fedde would command the more significant prospect package because of his affordability. A former first-round pick of the Nationals, Fedde never emerged as more than a back-end arm in Washington. He tweaked his pitch mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season. After dominating en route to the KBO MVP award, he returned stateside on a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the White Sox.

It’s the most successful move of Chris Getz’s general manager tenure to date. Fedde’s stuff has played in this look against big league hitters. He carries a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per appearance and hasn’t had any difficulty turning a lineup over three times. His 21.6% strikeout rate is right around league average, while his 6.6% walk percentage is strong. Fedde doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff of teammate Garrett Crochet, but he has been a very productive source of above-average innings.

As something of a buy-low signing, Fedde is plenty affordable. He’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary and will make a matching amount in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are telling interested teams they’re willing to hang onto Fedde into next season if clubs don’t overwhelm them with a trade package. It’d nevertheless be a huge surprise if the 31-year-old is still in a White Sox uniform by Wednesday. There’s no realistic path for the Sox back to contention by next season and little chance that Fedde’s trade value will be higher than it is now — when he’s pitching at a career-best level and comes with a year and a half of cheap control.

Taillon’s production has been very similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA over 100 1/3 frames. He’s striking out 19.1% of batters faced against a minuscule 5.1% walk rate. It’s a nice rebound after a home run spike led Taillon to allow nearly five earned runs per nine during his first season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball speed has dropped a tick to a career-low 92.5 MPH. That’s somewhat alarming but hasn’t prevented him from performing well this year.

Fedde is the more appealing trade chip based largely on the differences in their contracts. Taillon signed with the Cubs on a four-year, $68MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $18MM salary and due a matching annual sum from 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is well below what he’d get on the open market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral. If the Cubs were primarily concerned about offloading the latter half of that deal, they wouldn’t get a huge prospect return.

Houston has stormed back to overtake a reeling Mariners team atop the American League West. They’ve put themselves in position to buy — validating a front office that consistently maintained they’d do so — and now need to fortify the rotation. Houston is giving starts to rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss without much success.

They’re looking to move to a six-man rotation to lighten the stress on the rookies behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. Houston is hopeful of getting Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a linear recovery process. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are down for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has hit repeated snags as he rehabs a flexor injury. If everyone’s healthy, acquiring another starter could push one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.

The Astros don’t have a ton of assets to leverage in trade. Aggressive trades, picking at the back of the draft, and the fallout from the sign-stealing punishment have thinned the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organizational depth is also lacking.

That’s not to say they can’t add rotation help. Hypothetically, Melton would be a compelling headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti or outfielder Joey Loperfido are interesting potential secondary pieces. Houston isn’t working with the same prospect stockpile as are a lot of other teams in the market for rotation help, though.

One way to compensate for the mediocre farm system would be to take on salary. That’s particularly true with a player like Taillon. Yet Houston is already at an organizational high in terms of player spending. They’re going to pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $256MM. Any noteworthy deadline pickup is going to push them past the $257MM mark for the second tier of penalization. That’s not much of an impediment on its own, but it involves a 32% tax on further spending. Houston is already paying a 20% fee on their first $20MM above the $237MM base threshold. It’s not clear how much further owner Jim Crane is content to stretch.

To that end, The Athletic writes that the Astros are trying to offload Rafael Montero in trade packages. Houston re-signed Montero to a three-year, $34.5MM deal early in the 2022-23 offseason. (That came while Crane was playing an outsized role in baseball operations between the firing of previous GM James Click and before Houston tabbed Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven a very poor decision.

Montero was tagged for a 5.08 ERA across 67 1/3 innings a year ago. While this season’s 4.58 mark is a bit more respectable, Montero’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.6%. Montero has given up 12 runs over 13 2/3 innings since the start of June. He has walked nine batters and surrendered four home runs with only eight strikeouts in that time. Manager Joe Espada has had little choice but to relegate the veteran reliever to low-leverage work.

Clearly, Montero’s contract is well underwater. He’s playing on $11.5MM salaries this year and next. Other teams aren’t going to have any interest in taking any portion of that unless the Astros take back an undesirable deal or add to the prospect capital they’re putting in the offer.

Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin

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The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.

The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.

Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.

A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.

Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.

That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.

He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.

With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.

Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.

That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.

The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.

The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.

Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.

Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.

The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.

Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.

Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.

The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.

Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.

Astros Among Teams Interested In Isaac Paredes

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The Astros, looking to lengthen their lineup and get more production out of first base, are among the teams with interest in Rays infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome explains, the bottom third of Houston’s lineup has produced a disastrous .254 OBP since Kyle Tucker went on the injured list 40 games ago, shortening the lineup and leaving a lot of pressure on the top of the batting order.

Paredes is a natural fit for the Astros, though between his affordable $3.4MM salary, his three additional years of club control, his defensive versatility and this year’s .250/.352/.445 slash, he’d fit on the majority of contenders around the league. Paredes has been Tampa Bay’s primary third baseman this season, but he has considerable experience at both second base and first base as well, and he’s even played 50 innings of shortstop in the majors. He’s probably not cut out for long-term shortstop work, but Statcast feels he’s been average or better at each of the three other infield spots.

Among the 148 qualified hitters in MLB this season, only one has a higher pull rate than Paredes: Houston’s own Jose Altuve. That pull-happy approach from a righty power bat like Paredes makes the Astros’ Minute Maid Park — and the short left field porch in the Crawford Boxes — a particularly interesting fit. Paredes popped 31 homers last season and has 16 so far in 2024.

The Astros have gotten virtually nothing out of first base this season. Jose Abreu was released in the second season of an ill-fated three-year contract. Jon Singleton has been the primary option since. He’s hitting .230/.321/.345 on the season. That’s seven percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, at a position where above-average offense is typically expected. Singleton also grades as a poor first base defender and poor baserunner.

Swapping Singleton out for Paredes and then pairing him with Tucker’s eventual return could have a transformative impact on the Houston lineup. The benefits of adding Paredes would be further reaching in the long-term, too. Alex Bregman is slated to become a free agent this offseason, and while the Astros figure to be part of his offseason market, he’s hardly a guarantee to re-sign. Keeping Bregman could require a longer and more lucrative contract than the ’Stros have given out to anyone under owner Jim Crane; Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal is the longest contract issued under Crane, while Altuve’s 2018 extension that guaranteed him $151MM in new money is the largest guarantee. If Bregman doesn’t stay in Houston, Paredes could shift across the diamond to third base in 2025.

For all the reasons just listed, however, Paredes will be extremely expensive to acquire — at least in terms of prospects/young talent. Any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners and Red Sox (among others) stand as obvious fits and suitors for him. The market will be competitive. And, since Paredes is controllable through the 2027 season and should earn under $10MM next season in arbitration, the Rays likely don’t feel a need to move him. They’ll listen, as they do on all of their players, but it’ll take a genuinely compelling offer to pry three-plus years of one of the game’s most underrated infielders from their grasp.

That said, the Rays have sufficient infield depth to withstand the loss of Paredes. Third baseman Junior Caminero ranks as one of the sport’s top five prospects and is ready for a look in the majors. Caminero’s presence alone doesn’t make Paredes expendable — he could easily move to another infield position or just bounce between multiple slots on a regular basis — but having a ready-made replacement does make it a bit easier to move him than if the cupboard behind him were bare. Other, more expensive veterans on the Rays (e.g. Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena) seem likelier to move between now and next Tuesday’s deadline, but Paredes should draw heavy interest in his own right and likely could be had with a substantial enough offer.

Astros Select Aledmys Díaz, Designate David Hensley

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The Astros have selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Aledmys Díaz, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Grae Kessinger and designated infielder David Hensley for assignment.

Díaz, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Astros just over a week ago. He had been with the Athletics since signing a two-year deal with them going into 2023 but struggled essentially from the moment that deal was signed. He hit just .229/.280/.337 with Oakland in 2023 and then spent most of this year on the injured list due to groin and calf injuries. He hit .103/.133/.103 in 30 plate appearances before the A’s moved on.

By releasing him, the A’s remain on the hook for what’s left of his $8MM salary this year. Any other club would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the A’s pay. The Astros decided to step in by signing Díaz and sent him to the Complex League, where he hit .333/.313/.400 in four games.

The Astros will undoubtedly be hoping that he can put that performance with the A’s behind him and return to the form he showed in his previous stint in Houston. With the Astros from 2019 to 2022, he slashed .255/.313/.424 for a wRC+ of 102 while lining up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners. If he can get back into that ballpark, he can be a nice multi-positional bench piece for the Astros once again.

Hensley, 28, has been on Houston’s 40-man roster since August of 2022 but has been on optional assignment for most of that time. He has 128 major league plate appearances in 46 games with a line of .177/.273/.274 in those.

He had performed well in the minors prior to getting that roster spot but has tailed off since. He slashed .295/.395/.458 in the minors over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of 124. He struck out 22.8% of the time but drew walks at a strong clip of 13.9%. However, a .380 batting average on balls in play suggested that performance wasn’t quite sustainable.

Over 2023 and 2024, his BABIP corrected to a more normal level of .308 and his line has dropped to .228/.358/.367. His walk rate increased to 16.6% in the latter stretch but he’s also been punched out 26.3% of the time.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Hensley or pass him through waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, they have five days to explore any trade possibilities. If any club has interest in Hensley as a depth piece, he can still be optioned for rest of this year and one additional season. He also has less than a year of service time and therefore many years of club control. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Astros in a non-roster capacity.

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