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Astros Outright Rafael Montero To Triple-A

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The Astros announced that Rafael Montero has been outrighted to Triple-A Sugar Land after clearing waivers.  Montero was designated for assignment earlier this week, and since Montero had more than enough MLB service time to reject the outright assignment in favor of free agency, today’s move indicates that the veteran righty voluntarily accepted the move down to the minor leagues.

Montero’s decision is akin to Jose Abreu also agreeing to be optioned to the minors earlier this season, though that transaction was just a straight demotion and not a DFA.  Unfortunately for the Astros, there is further similarity in that both Abreu and Montero are well-paid veterans who have struggled badly since Opening Day 2023, leaving the Astros with a big chunk of essentially dead money on their payroll.

Initially coming to Houston in a trade with the Mariners in July 2021, Montero emerged as a force out of the Astros bullpen in 2022.  Montero posted a 2.37 ERA in 68 1/3 innings for the World Series champions, serving as an ace setup man for closer Ryan Pressly and picking up some saves himself when Pressly was on the injured list.  This big performance came in a contract year for Montero, and it paid off in the form of a three-year, $34.5MM free agent deal to return to the Astros.

Things have gone south for Montero since that deal was signed, as the right-hander has a 4.94 ERA over 105 2/3 since the start of the 2023 campaign.  Opposing batters have been making a ton more hard contact against Montero’s offerings, and his strikeout rate has also plummeted even from 2023 to 2024.  Montero’s 26.5K% in 2023 was still quite respectable, but his 14K% this year ranks only in the third percentile of all pitchers.

With Montero showing little sign of improvement, the Astros made the decision to finally designate him, and surely no club was going to make a waiver claim and therefore inherit the rest of the struggling reliever’s contract.  Montero’s service time would’ve allowed him to retain all of that salary even if he had chosen to become a free agent, but he’ll instead head to Triple-A to see if he can get himself back on track.  Since Montero is off the 40-man roster and is getting paid anyway, there’s no downside for the Astros or for the pitcher in taking this sojourn in the minors, as all parties will benefit if Montero can regain some form and re-emerge as a viable option in Houston’s pen.  If things don’t turn around for Montero in Sugar Land, the Astros could just release him, as they ultimately did with Abreu.

Astros Pitching Notes: Garcia, Verlander, Murfee

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This weekend was supposed to mark the start of Luis Garcia’s next minor league rehab assignment, but Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that Garcia is “feeling a little bit sore.”  While Espada was quick to say that Garcia wasn’t being shut down, the team was going to take it easy with the righty-hander after he felt what Espada described as “some soreness in his elbow” following a game of catch on Thursday.

Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, and his first attempt at a rehab assignment lasted two outings — an inning with the Astros’ rookie ball team in late June, and then 1 1/3 innings for Double-A Corpus Christi in early July.  He was then held back from any more game action due to some physical discomfort and trouble bouncing back between pitching appearances.  The Astros were slowly ramping him back up, and after Garcia’s live batting practice session last Tuesday seemed to go without a hitch, plans were made for another rehab assignment.

Instead, some questions now have to be asked about when exactly Garcia will be able to properly get back onto the mound in the wake of this latest setback.  Though Garcia will require a pretty lengthy rehab stint when he is able to pitch, the Astros have said Garcia could potentially return as a reliever.  This would require less build-up than rehabbing to work as a starting pitcher, so Garcia could make it back a bit quicker and pitch out of Houston’s bullpen later in the season or into a potential postseason run.  Garcia would therefore be able to contribute to the 2024 team in some fashion, yet with still a decent length of time remaining in the regular season, the Astros will certainly first see if Garcia can indeed get healthy and ready enough to return to his customary starting role.

Garcia established himself as a solid member of the starting five when he posted a 3.60 ERA over 312 2/3 innings in 2021-22, helping the Astros to two AL pennants in those years and the World Series title in 2022.  Given the usual timeframe for Tommy John rehab, his projected return in the second half of this season gained extra import considering how the Astros have been ravaged by pitching injuries.

Justin Verlander has twice been sidelined — first with some shoulder inflammation that delayed his season debut until April 19, and then a bout of neck stiffness that has kept him off the mound since June 9.  The good news is that Verlander is inching towards a return, as Espada said the star righty will face live batters during a batting practice session on Sunday.  Verlander is tentatively then planned to begin a rehab assignment, with Espada specifying that Verlander will need multiple starts to build up his arm to return to starting duty.

Penn Murfee is another pitcher getting ready to face live batters, as the reliever will be throwing a live BP session at the Astros’ Spring Training complex this weekend.  Murfee told Kawahara and company that the plan is for him to begin his own rehab assignment after throwing three live BP sessions.

Debuting in the majors in 2022, Murfee made a quick impression by posting a 2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 relief innings for the Mariners.  He followed up that great rookie year with a 1.29 ERA in his first 14 innings of the 2023 campaign before undergoing a UCL-related surgery in June 2023, and Seattle then opted to place him on waivers at the start of the offseason.  This led to Murfee going to the Mets and then the Braves on a pair of waiver claims, a new contract with the Braves after Atlanta non-tendered him, and then another waiver claim to the Astros in late March.  If Murfee’s rehab goes smoothly and he is able to recapture his old form, he presents Houston with an intriguing bullpen addition for the final stretch.

Ryan Pressly Reaches Vesting Option Threshold

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Astros reliever Ryan Pressly tossed a scoreless inning to earn a hold in tonight’s 3-2 victory over the Rays. As Chandler Rome of the Athletic points out (on X), that was the veteran righty’s 45th appearance of the season. Combined with 65 appearances last year, Pressly has reached 110 games since the start of 2023.

That’s the necessary threshold to vest the $14MM team option on his contract for 2025. Marc Berman of USA Today wrote in February that the option also requires that Pressly not finish this season on the injured list. (It’s not uncommon for a vesting provision to require the player to pass an end-of-year physical.) Assuming he’s healthy at year’s end, he’s officially under contract for the ’25 campaign at $14MM. It’s a traditional vesting option, so Pressly does not have the ability to decline it in favor of free agency.

Pressly, who turns 36 in January, will be going into his seventh full season with the Astros. Houston acquired him from the Twins at the 2019 deadline in what turned out to be a fantastic pickup. Pressly carries a 2.77 earned run average in 327 regular season appearances. He has been even better in October, firing 44 2/3 innings of 2.22 ERA ball in his playoff career.

While relief pitchers can be volatile, Pressly has been an annual source of stability. He hasn’t had an ERA higher than 3.58 in any of his seasons with Houston. Pressly has reached at least 50 appearances in the previous four full schedules of his Astros tenure. He’s well on his way to doing so again. He spent the 2020-23 seasons operating as Houston’s closer and was consistently among the top relievers in the game.

The Astros signed Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM free agent deal late last offseason. That pushed Pressly into a setup role for the ’24 campaign. That wasn’t an indictment of his performance so much as an opportunity for Houston to build a three-headed monster of Hader, Pressly and Bryan Abreu at the back of the bullpen. That trio struggled to a 5.40 ERA in April, a big reason the team got off to a slow start. They’ve been dominant for the better part of three months since then, combining for a 2.56 ERA over 102 innings. The team has correspondingly turned its fortunes around, erasing a 10-game deficit on the Mariners to hold a marginal lead in the AL West race with two months to play.

Including tonight’s performance, Pressly carries a 3.38 ERA across 42 2/3 innings. He has 19 holds and a pair of saves against six blown leads. Those generally solid results are in spite of an elevated .344 average on balls in play. Pressly is striking out a quarter of opponents with a solid 46.7% grounder rate and a tidy 7% walk percentage. While it’s a slight step down from his 2019-23 production, Pressly continues to turn in above-average performance late in games.

The Astros and Pressly’s representatives at the Ballengee Group have hammered out a pair of extensions over the years. In Spring Training 2019, they inked a two-year, $17.5MM pact with a ’22 vesting option. Pressly hit that mark, locked in his 2022 salary, then agreed to another two-year deal early in the season. That one guaranteed him $30MM — matching $14MM salaries for 2023-24 and at least a $2MM buyout on the ’25 vesting option. He’s now set to max the deal out at $42MM over three seasons by securing the $12MM difference between next year’s option price and the buyout figure.

Pressly joins Jose Altuve ($30MM), Hader ($19MM), Lance McCullers Jr. ($17MM), Yordan Alvarez ($15MM), Cristian Javier ($10MM) and Victor Caratini ($6MM) on next year’s books. They’re still on the hook for big salaries for José Abreu ($19.5MM) and Rafael Montero ($11.5MM) to close those respective ill-fated three-year free agent pacts. That’s $128MM in guaranteed commitments.

Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker are both going to surpass $15MM salaries in their final arbitration seasons, while Bryan Abreu, Mauricio Dubón, Jeremy Peña, Luis Garcia and Jake Meyers are among their other arbitration-eligible players. Houston has a lot of commitments before deciding whether to re-sign Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander and deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi. There’ll be a lot on GM Dana Brown’s plate next winter, but owner Jim Crane showed a wiliness to push into the second tier of luxury tax penalization this year in pursuit of an eighth straight trip to the ALCS and beyond.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Claim Janson Junk

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The Astros claimed right-hander Janson Junk off waivers from the Brewers, tweets Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Junk was designated for assignment when Milwaukee reinstated Devin Williams from the 60-day injured list. Houston already had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so no additional moves were necessary. Junk has been optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land and will give the ’Stros some additional depth.

This is the final option year for Junk, 28, who’s pitched in the big leagues in each of the past four seasons. He’s only received scattered looks during his time with the Angels and Brewers, logging a combined 40 innings with a 5.18 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 44.8% ground-ball rate. He’s worked both as a starter and reliever in his pro career, and though he’s primarily spent the season in the bullpen with the Brewers’ Triple-A Nashville affiliate, he’s frequently worked in multi-inning stints throughout the summer.

Junk’s big league numbers may not be particularly sharp, but he sports a tidy 2.55 earned run average in 35 1/3 Triple-A frames this season. He’s punched out 23.6% of his opponents there against a 10.1% walk rate. Junk has been outstanding of late, too. He’s rattled off 17 straight scoreless frames in Nashville, logging a 19-to-7 K/BB ratio along the way and only yielding a dozen hits in that time. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Junk has a 4.15 ERA over the life of 251 1/3 innings.

Astros’ Eric Lauer Granted Release, Will Reportedly Pursue KBO Opportunity

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The Astros released left-hander Eric Lauer, who’d been with their Triple-A club in Sugar Land, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. It seems that’ll pave the way for the former Brewers and Padres hurler to sign in the Korea Baseball Organization. Per KBO reporter Daniel Kim, Lauer will sign a deal with the Kia Tigers for the remainder of the 2024 campaign.

Lauer, 29, opened the season with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate after signing a minor league deal in spring training and joined Houston’s Triple-A club a couple months later after opting out of that deal with Pittsburgh. He’s had rough results on the whole in Triple-A this season, working to a combined 5.26 ERA between the two teams. However, he’s been on a good run as of late (2.86 ERA over his past five starts), has maintained respectable strikeout/walk rates throughout the ’24 season (25.3%, 9.1%), and of course has a big league track record of some note.

Selected by the Padres with the No. 25 overall pick in the 2016 draft, Lauer made his big league debut with San Diego in 2018 and spent two seasons pitching at the back of the Friars’ rotation. He logged a 4.40 ERA over 53 appearances (all but one of them as a starter) and looked well on his way to cementing himself as a serviceable back-end option. The Padres traded him to Milwaukee alongside Luis Urias in a trade shipping Trent Grisham and Zach Davies back to San Diego. Lauer made four ugly appearances during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, yielding 16 runs in 11 innings, but bounced back in a major way the following year.

Early in the 2021 season, Lauer added a slider to his repertoire and saw his results take off. He posted a 3.19 ERA and fanned 24% of his opponents in 118 2/3 innings that year, including a minuscule 2.41 ERA after incorporating his new breaking ball. The strong results continued into 2022, and Lauer wound up pitching to a combined 3.47 ERA in 277 1/3 frames across the two seasons, fanning 23.8% of his opponents against an 8.7% walk rate.

Lauer’s 2022 season was slowed by a shoulder issue, however, and he battled shoulder and elbow troubles the following year as well. The lefty saw his average fastball plummet from 93.3 mph in 2022 to 91.2 mph in 2023. In 46 2/3 big league frames, he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA as his K/BB rates both went in the wrong direction. The Brewers sent him to Triple-A Nashville to try to get him right, but Lauer’s struggles continued, as he was knocked around for a 5.15 ERA there and did not return to the big leagues.

Lauer clearly hasn’t recaptured his 2021-22 form in Triple-A this season, but he’ll aim to do so down the stretch in the KBO with a Kia club that’s currently sporting the league’s best record at 60-41. It’s feasible that a big showing overseas could lead to interest from MLB clubs this winter, but it could also open the door for Lauer to re-sign with the Tigers for the 2025 campaign. He’d pitch all of next season at 30 years of age, and if he can either rebound to 2021-22 form or reinvent himself with some new offerings (a la Erick Fedde), an additional year in the KBO could catapult him back onto the big league radar.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Were the prospect prices high in this year’s trades? Is this a new normal due to the expanded playoffs creating a seller’s market? (2:15)
  • The three-team trade involving the Dodgers, White Sox, Cardinals, Erick Fedde, Miguel Vargas and others (15:40)
  • The Rays and Cubs, the buy-sell tightrope and the trade involving Isaac Paredes and Christopher Morel (29:30)
  • The Astros acquire Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays for a three-player package and the connection to the the Dodgers acquiring Jack Flaherty from the Tigers but the Yankees reportedly being scared off by his medicals (48:00)
  • The Guardians acquire Alex Cobb from the Giants and acquire Lane Thomas from the Nationals (58:35)
  • The Orioles acquire Trevor Rogers from the Marlins and acquire Zach Eflin from the Rays (1:09:10)
  • Will teams have to be more aggressive in the offseason going forward if the expanded playoffs will make less good players available at the deadline? (1:20:35)
  • The Rockies and Angels held onto a lot of trade candidates (1:23:35)
  • The Marlins leaned in hard to seller status (1:31:40)
  • The Padres built a super bullpen (1:44:50)
  • The Braves acquire Jorge Soler from the Giants (1:47:40)
  • The Royals acquire Lucas Erceg from the Athletics (1:54:40)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
  • Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets – listen here
  • Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Astros Designate Rafael Montero For Assignment

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The Astros announced that they have designated right-hander Rafael Montero for assignment, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. They also optioned righty Seth Martinez, with those two moves opening roster spots for lefties Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson, who were acquired prior to the trade deadline yesterday. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relayed the full slate of moves on X.

Montero, now 33, is in the second season of a three-year, $34.5MM deal he signed with the Astros after the 2022 season. He had just made 71 appearances for Houston that year with a 2.37 earned run average, 27% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 52.9% ground ball rate. He recorded 14 saves and 23 holds in the process, then added another ten strong performances in the postseason as the Astros won their second World Series.

But his performance has declined significantly since that contract was signed. He made 68 appearances for the club last year with his ERA ticking up to 5.08. His 26.5% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were all a bit worse than the year prior. There may have been a bit of bad luck in there, as his .358 batting average on balls in play was very high and his 15.3% home run per flyball ratio was almost three times his 5.7% rate from the year prior.

Here in 2024, his 4.70 ERA is actually a slight improvement over last year, but things under the hood are bleak. His 14% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate are both significantly worse than last year and also subpar compared to league averages. He’s actually been pretty lucky when considering his .243 BABIP and 78.6% strand rate. His 6.39 FIP and 5.23 SIERA suggest he’s actually been worse than his ERA would indicate.

It was reported last week that the Astros were looking to move Montero’s contract as they pursued pitchers with notable salaries such as Zach Eflin and Jameson Taillon. In the end, it seems they were unsuccessful in finding a taker, which isn’t surprising when considering his numbers. Now that the deadline has passed, their only option will be to put him on waivers and they will therefore see Montero depart for nothing.

Given his performance and contract, he will certainly go unclaimed, at which point he has enough service time to elect free agency while retaining all of his salary. Houston will remain on the hook for it while any other club could then sign him and pay him just the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Astros pay.

That’s obviously not the result the club was hoping for when they signed that deal and it’s yet another development that shines an unflattering light on an unusual period in Astros’ history. Despite winning the 2022 World Series, the Astros parted ways with general manager James Click just days after hoisting that trophy. Click was hired somewhat hastily after Jeff Luhnow was fired in the wake of the club’s sign-stealing scandal coming to light. Owner Jim Crane reportedly had a contentious relationship with Click and decided to pivot, despite the club’s continued success while Click was in charge.

Dana Brown was eventually hired to take over as the club’s GM, but not until January of 2023. There was a period of a few months where Crane decided to run the baseball operations department himself, reportedly advised by former big leaguers Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson.

During that window, the club’s two most significant transactions were the Montero deal and the three-year pact for first baseman José Abreu, both of which turned into huge misfires. Like Montero, Abreu grappled with massive struggles before he himself was released last month. Click later took a job in the front office of the Blue Jays, the club that just acquired Kikuchi for Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner.

Montero will surely find himself on the open market in the days to come. Some club could perhaps take a shot on him based on his past success and the fact that there will be effectively no cost. Apart from the 2022 season, his track record is pretty spotty, as he currently has a 4.71 ERA in 462 1/3 career innings. He had a solid run with the Rangers in 2019 and 2020, posting a 3.09 ERA over 46 2/3 innings with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2021 and then struggled badly with a 7.27 ERA, before the Astros acquired him at that year’s deadline. As mentioned, he then had the best season of his career in 2022 before his results tailed off.

Yankees Trade Caleb Ferguson To Astros

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The Astros have acquired lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Yankees in exchange for minor league pitcher Kelly Austin and international signing bonus space, according to an announcement by New York. Houston is reportedly sending $750K in bonus room.

New York acquired Ferguson from the Dodgers over the offseason. He has had a difficult season, pitching to a 5.13 ERA over 42 appearances. That’s in part because of poor sequencing, as he has only stranded 62.2% of baserunners. Yet Ferguson has also been somewhat homer prone and is issuing walks at an elevated 10.3% clip.

Ferguson is still missing a decent number of bats. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents behind an 11.5% swinging strike rate. Those are each in line with his career marks, although his 93.7 MPH average fastball speed is a bit below the 95-96 MPH range he’d posted over the previous two seasons.

Over parts of five seasons with the Dodgers before last winter’s trade, Ferguson turned in a 3.43 earned run average. He had an identical mark across 60 1/3 frames last season. Ferguson doesn’t have much in the way of a platoon split for his career, so he’s not an ideal fit as a situational specialist, but he’s only a year removed from being a solid overall middle reliever.

The Astros have been light on left-handed relief for the past few seasons. They signed Josh Hader to a five-year contract last winter, but he’s obviously holding down the ninth inning. Houston hasn’t had much in the way of a middle innings option for manager Joe Espada, though that generally hasn’t been a priority for their front office. Aside from Hader, only rookie Bryan King and Parker Mushinski have logged any action out of the bullpen as southpaws.

New York is similarly light on left-handed bullpen options, though they might take a bigger swing on the trade market in the next three hours. Tim Hill stands as the only southpaw in their current relief mix. The Yanks could be involved on top rental lefty Tanner Scott or a less exciting target like Tanner Banks or old friend Justin Wilson.

Ferguson is making $2.4MM in his final year of arbitration. There’s a little less than $800K in salary for the stretch run. The Yankees are paying a 110% tax on salary, so offloading Ferguson saves them around $2MM. Houston is in the second luxury tax bracket, so they’re paying a 32% tax — around $250K — to pick him up. He’ll be a free agent next offseason.

Austin, 23, is a former undrafted free agent out of UCLA. He has worked out of the bullpen in the low minors this season, turning in a 2.21 ERA across 36 2/3 innings. The 6’0″ righty has dominated low minors competition, striking out 31% of opponents while issuing walks at a meager 4.7% clip.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported the Astros were acquiring Ferguson for a minor leaguer and international bonus pool space. Chandler Rome of the Athletic identified the player as Austin and reported the $750K figure.

Astros Acquire Yusei Kikuchi

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The Astros are paying up to get one of the top pitchers on the market. Houston and Toronto announced a trade sending Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros for rookie righty Jake Bloss, outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido and minor league infielder Will Wagner. Toronto already had ample 40-man roster space to accommodate the move.

Kikuchi is behind Jack Flaherty as arguably the second-best rental starter on the market. Houston was tied to Flaherty as well as more controllable pitchers like Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde and Zach Eflin last week. There was never much doubt that the Astros would bring in a starter, as general manager Dana Brown hasn’t been shy about the team’s need for a mid-rotation arm. The asking price on Flaherty always seemed like it might be beyond Houston’s comfort zone, making Kikuchi a sensible fallback.

The 33-year-old Kikuchi has had mixed results this season and throughout his career more broadly. Over 115 2/3 innings this year, he carries a 4.75 ERA that’s right in line with his 4.72 mark in parts of six MLB campaigns. Kikuchi’s strikeout and walk profile is quite a bit more impressive than that run prevention figure suggests. He has punched out 26.2% of opposing hitters while walking only 6% of batters faced. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, Kikuchi ranks 19th in strikeout percentage and 16th in strikeout/walk rate differential. He’s getting swinging strikes at a 12.4% rate that places him among the top 30 in that group.

A .340 average on balls in play and modest 70.6% left on base rate have nevertheless pushed his ERA close to 5.00. Those marks were nearer to league average in 2023, when the Japanese southpaw turned in a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts with similar strikeout and walk rates as he’s posted this season. Houston is betting on positive regression in those sequencing and batted ball results.

Teams have long been intrigued by Kikuchi, who boasts some of the best raw stuff of any left-hander in baseball. His fastball sits north of 95 MPH and he has the ability to miss bats with all four of his offerings (four-seam, curveball, slider, changeup). Kikuchi has had a difficult time keeping the ball in the park throughout his MLB career, though. He’s allowing homers at an elevated 1.32 clip per nine this season and has given up more longballs than the average pitcher in every full season of his major league tenure. Right-handed batters have generally given him trouble, though he’s holding them a more manageable .280/.323/.441 slash in 409 plate appearances this year.

While Kikuchi isn’t without flaws, he’s a plug-and-play option for the middle of a Houston rotation that certainly needed one. The Astros have been hit hard by starting pitching injuries all year. They lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery. Depth starter J.P. France went down with a season-ending shoulder issue. Justin Verlander has had two injured list stints and has been shelved since the middle of June because of neck soreness. Lance McCullers Jr. has hit continued snags in his effort to return from a flexor tendon surgery. They had to slow down Luis Garcia in his work back from Tommy John surgery, though he’s again throwing bullpen sessions after being pulled off a minor league rehab stint earlier this month.

Framber Valdez is leading the rotation and has a 3.43 ERA over 18 starts. Hunter Brown has bounced back from a disastrous April and pitched like a top-of-the-rotation arm for the last three months. Ronel Blanco has been a godsend after injuries pushed him into the fifth starter role out of camp. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 119 frames.

While that’s a decent top three, the depth is questionable. Spencer Arrighetti has a 5.58 ERA over his first 19 MLB starts. Houston had pushed Bloss to the majors within a year of drafting him, largely reflecting their lack of alternatives in the upper minors. The Astros are hoping to get Verlander and Garcia (and potentially McCullers) back at some point, but they’ve also pushed Blanco to new workload heights. The 30-year-old righty had never thrown more than 88 innings in a major or minor league campaign before this year. He’s already 31 innings beyond that.

Kikuchi, who hasn’t missed a start in two years, has provided the kind of durability that the Astros have generally lacked. There’s injury risk with any pitcher, of course, but the Astros are no doubt thrilled to land a pitcher who is tied for fifth in MLB in starts going back to last year’s Opening Day.

Doing so comes at a cost. Bloss is arguably the top pitching prospect in a fairly thin Houston farm system. A third-round pick out of Georgetown last summer, the 6’3″ righty quickly pitched his way towards the top of the prospect pipeline. Baseball America recently ranked him the #2 prospect in the organization, while he’s in the overall Top 100 (and second in the organization) at FanGraphs.

BA suggests he’s likely to fit at the back of a rotation, while FanGraphs credits him with mid-rotation potential. Both outlets write that his mid-90s fastball plays especially well at the top of the strike zone because of its backspin and Bloss’ deceptively low release height. He has a pair of solid breaking pitches, while his changeup is a work in progress.

Opponents have hit him hard over his three big league starts. He has given up nine runs on 16 hits (including five homers) over 11 2/3 innings. Were it not for Houston’s injury woes, he probably wouldn’t have made his MLB debut yet. Bloss has pitched very well in the minors this season, working to a 1.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate across 66 innings. Yet he’d made all of eight starts at Double-A and one Triple-A appearance before being pushed to the big leagues out of necessity. A more typical development path would probably still have him at Double-A right now.

Bloss has all three options remaining. The 23-year-old is under control for at least six seasons beyond this one and could stick around even longer if the Jays send him to the minors for further development. Bloss could factor into next year’s rotation as the Jays try to quickly return to contention, maybe slotting into the rotation spot vacated by Kikuchi’s departure.

Getting Bloss alone would’ve been a strong return for a half-season of Kikuchi’s services. Loperfido, 25, ranked as Houston’s #5 prospect on BA’s latest update. A seventh-round selection out of Duke in 2021, he hit his way to the big leagues earlier this year. Loperfido combined for a .278/.370/.510 slash between three minor league levels last season. He was obliterating Triple-A pitching early this season and owns a .272/.365/.568 mark with 13 homers over 39 games in the Pacific Coast League this year.

Of course, the PCL is an extremely favorable environment for hitters. BA’s scouting report credits Loperfido with above-average but not elite power. He was striking out an elevated 28% clip against Triple-A pitching. The whiffs have carried over in his first look at MLB arms. Loperfido has fanned in 36.4% of his 118 MLB plate appearances to date. He’s hitting .236/.299/.358 in 38 games.

Loperfido isn’t a great athlete or defensive player. He was drafted as a second baseman but he’s moved off the position entirely this year. Houston has divided his time between the outfield and first base in Triple-A. They haven’t given him any major league starts at first base, which is a bit of a surprise considering the mediocre production they’ve gotten out of the position from Jon Singleton and the since-released José Abreu.

Wagner is the third piece in the deal, but he’s a prospect in his own right. The son of seven-time All-Star Billy Wagner, Will ranks 19th in the Houston system at Baseball America. A former 18th-round pick out of Liberty, Wagner has outperformed his draft stock and is posting huge numbers in Triple-A. He’s hitting .307/.424/.429 with a massive 16.2% walk percentage against a tiny 10.2% strikeout rate across 324 plate appearances.

The left-handed hitting Wagner is old for the level — today is his 26th birthday — but he has little more to prove in the minors. He has divided his time between first, second and third base this year. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if not selected onto the 40-man roster but could get a look in Toronto before the end of this season.

That’s three controllable players at or near the MLB level. The Astros were fine giving them up while they’re in a tight battle with the Mariners and Rangers for the AL West crown. Beyond the prospects, they’re adding salary to what is already a franchise-high payroll. The Astros had a competitive balance tax estimate around $256MM before the deal (as calculated by RosterResource). Unless there are cash considerations involved, they’ll take on roughly $3.33MM remaining on Kikuchi’s $10MM salary. That pushes them beyond the $257MM threshold that marks the second tier of luxury penalization. They’re taxed at a 32% rate on spending up to $277MM, so they’ll take on roughly $1MM in taxes on top of the money they owe Kikuchi.

Toronto sheds some money from its tax ledger — more than the Astros are taking on. Kikuchi’s three-year, $36MM free agent deal was frontloaded to pay him $16MM in the first season. Toronto’s competitive balance tax hit was nevertheless the contract’s $12MM average annual value, so Kikuchi had a higher CBT hit than actual salary this year.

When a player on a guaranteed contract is traded, the CBT ledger is recalculated based on the salary remaining at the time of the trade. The Astros assume the prorated amount of a $10MM salary while the Jays drop the prorated portion of the $12MM for which Kikuchi had counted against their books — approximately $4MM. That could aid them in trying to slip below the $237MM base threshold this year. Their exact CBT number is pending the reporting of the amount of cash they included in the Justin Turner trade with Seattle this afternoon.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden first reported the Astros were nearing a deal for Kikuchi that would send Bloss to Toronto. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed a Kikuchi trade was in place. Ken Rosenthal, Kaitlyn McGrath and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the Jays were acquiring two other prospects. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Loperfido and Wagner were in the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros To Select Pedro Leon’s Contract

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In the aftermath of tonight’s trade that brought Yusei Kikuchi to Houston in exchange for a three-player trade package, the Astros will fill one of their roster spots with outfield prospect Pedro Leon.  MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (X link) reports that the Astros will select Leon’s contract to the 40-man roster, giving the 26-year-old his first taste of big league baseball.

Baseball America ranked Leon as the top prospect available when he officially signed his $4MM deal with the Astros in 2021, though at age 22, he was significantly older than most members of the 2020-21 international signing class.  He had already played two seasons in Cuba’s National Series before defecting, and he didn’t play at all in 2019 or 2020 due to paperwork delays, the pandemic, and the fact that the Astros didn’t have the bonus pool space to sign him until the 2020-21 window opened.

Leon reached Triple-A Sugar Land before the end of the 2021 season, but he has remained at the top affiliate ever since, hitting .249/.357/.445 with 57 home runs in 1567 total Triple-A appearances.  That slash line includes a marked step up in production this season, as Leon has hit .297/.377/.519 with 19 homers over 424 PA in 2024.

Plenty of caveats abound with these numbers.  Leon is now 26 and playing against generally much younger competition, and batting totals tend to be inflated in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  In addition, his .374 BABIP suggests a lot of batted-ball fortune, and his 8.7% is the lowest of his three full Triple-A seasons.  Leon has slightly reduced his strikeout rate from past years, but only to 26.2%.

MLB Pipeline ranks Leon 24th among all Astros prospects, with Baseball America putting him 29th in their evaluation of Houston’s farm system.  The strikeouts are naturally a big concern in regards to how Leon might fare against Major League pitching, even if Leon does show good power than he does make contact.  He has plus speed (86 steals in 121 attempts at Sugar Land) and a very strong throwing arm but is considered an average fielder at best, likely suited for corner outfield work.

Kyle Tucker’s continued stint on the injured list has left a big hole in Houston’s outfield, though it might be hard for Leon to find consistent playing time with Trey Cabbage, Chas McCormick, and utilityman Mauricio Dubon ahead of him on the depth chart.  Leon is a right-handed hitter, adding to an Astros roster that already tilts toward the right side.

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