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No Extension Talks Between Cardinals, Ryan Helsley

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Right-hander Ryan Helsley spoke to reporters about his future with the Cardinals during the club’s Winter Warmup fan event this weekend. As relayed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Helsley indicated that he was actually under the impression he’d be getting traded this winter when the offseason began. The righty added that when his camp heard from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about six weeks after the season ended and was told the Cardinals plan to hold onto him this winter, he initially believed the call was to inform him of a trade.

Part of Helsley’s belief that he was ticketed for a trade this winter is based on the fact that there’s “never been any talk about extensions” between his camp and the Cardinals, he indicated. As noted by Jones, Helsley made clear that he would love to stay in St. Louis beyond the end of his time under team control but called negotiations a “two-way street” before adding that “if only one side wants [an extension], it’s not going to work out.”

It’s not a response that projects much confidence from Helsley about his prospects of remaining in town beyond the end of his contract. While the Cardinals have been seen as unlikely to part with Helsley on the trade market all winter even in spite of interest from rival clubs, keeping Helsley for the start of the regular season doesn’t necessarily mean that the club has interest in keeping the right-hander in the fold long-term or even that they’re opposed to considering a trade for Helsley over the summer if the club isn’t in playoff contention.

The biggest reason for the club to hold onto Helsley to open the season is that the club hopes to maintain some level of competitiveness in a relatively weak NL Central division this year. Helsley was among the best closers in baseball last season as he posted a 2.04 ERA and 2.41 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work while collecting an MLB-best 49 saves. He struck out 29.7% of his opponents and continued to flash triple-digit velocity on his fastball. That’s the sort of dominant performance that can substantially boost a team’s odds of staying competitive, and the Cardinals don’t have a bevy of young relief arms ready to step into Helsley’s shoes the way they do with veteran hitters from the 2024 club like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Of course, another consideration is money. Helsley and the Cardinals settled at an $8.2MM salary to avoid arbitration this year. That $8.2MM, while not insignificant, would not do as much to assist the club’s goal of lowering payroll in 2025 as letting Goldschmidt (who signed for $12.5MM with the Yankees last month) depart in free agency did, to say nothing of how much more impactful trading most or all of the $60MM the Cardinals still owe Arenado over the next three seasons would be. In fact, Helsley’s impact relative to the Cardinals’ financial obligation to him arguably makes him one of the most valuable players on the team. Viewed through that lens, it’s understandable that St. Louis is planning to keep him in the fold through at least the first half of the season as they attempt to compete for a playoff spot.

Once Helsley is no longer under team control, that value calculation figures to change radically. Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader have set a new standard for elite relievers in free agency by landing deals that garnered both more than $90MM over a five-year period by measure of net present value. Helsley’s track record isn’t quite on the same level as Hader’s but even this year’s top free agent reliever, Tanner Scott, is rumored to be in line for an annual salary that could approach $20MM. If Scott, who had a dominant platform season but has a shorter track record of late-inning excellence than Helsley does, can land that sort of deal in free agency this winter it’s hard to imagine the righty not garnering a deal that at least comes close to doubling his annual salary next offseason.

That’s not the type of contract extension that would make sense for a Cardinals club that’s facing payroll constraints to offer, even before considering the uncertainty the team faces as it turns its focus towards developing younger players at the big league level. That makes it somewhat understandable for the Cardinals to not pursue an extension with Helsley at this point. After all, playing out the final year of his contract allows them to leave the door open for a midseason trade if the club is out of contention while also not stopping them from re-upping with him after the season should they believe that he’s a fit for their needs in 2026 and beyond. If the Cardinals exceed expectations and remain in the mix for a playoff spot all year, it will be much easier for them to project the level of competitiveness in 2026 necessary to make splurging on a closer of Helsley’s caliber more justifiable.

John Mozeliak Discusses Arenado, Cardinals’ Offseason

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) at the team’s Winter Warm-Up event today, and discussed several topics related to quiet St. Louis offseason.  In general, Mozeliak didn’t have much new to offer on the Nolan Arenado trade front, other than to say that “I think priority one, two and three is still Nolan” in terms of how dealing the third baseman is the clear focal point for the rest of the team’s winter plans.

Mozeliak has been open abut the team’s intentions of cutting payroll and giving more playing time to younger players in 2025, even if the PBO and other Cardinals’ officials have stopped short of officially considering next season a rebuilding year.  During the Winter Meetings, Mozeliak candidly said that “It’s my intention to try” and trade Arenado to aid in this process, and Arenado was tacitly on board with these endeavors, though Arenado ultimately has control over his own fate via his no-trade clause.

The eight-time All-Star already used this influence to reject a proposed deal in December that would’ve seen him dealt to the Astros, with Houston taking on — according to conflicting reports — at least $45MM and as much as $59MM of the $60MM still owed on Arenado’s contract.  (The full total is $74MM, but the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure and the other $4MM is reduced due to deferrals.)  In the wake of that scuttled deal, the Astros moved on entirely by signing Christian Walker to address their corner infield needs, leaving St. Louis still in need of a trade partner.

Later reports suggested Arenado hadn’t entirely closed the door on joining the Astros, but just wanted more time to evaluate the situation considering that Houston had just dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs earlier that same week.  Mozeliak admitted today that he “was a little bit surprised” Arenado turned down the trade, and suggested that the Cardinals were hampered by the timing of the Tucker deal.  “It was almost more like order of operation.  Had we been a few days ahead of that, I think there would’ve been [a trade]….So yeah, things happen.” Mozeliak said.

In regards to the lack of other interest in Arenado, Mozeliak said “I would imagine the free agent market would be what’s slowing that down,” referencing the fact that Alex Bregman remains unsigned.  Some movement on the Arenado front could happen once Bregman chooses his next team, and Mozeliak said he hadn’t yet spoken with Arenado or his camp about possibly expanding the third baseman’s list of preferred trade destinations.

In fact, Mozeliak said he hadn’t directly spoken with Arenado for close to a month, as the two last had contact before the holidays.  Given the calendar, their next conversation might also have to address the scenario where Arenado isn’t traded prior to Spring Training, so he’d have to go through his normal spring routine under the weight of a potential change of scenery.

“There’s the mental side of this too, right?” Mozeliak said.  “He’s probably thinking, like, OK, if I have to come to camp, I want to start preparing for that, and maybe he wants to be committed to [staying in St. Louis] at that point.  So I don’t want to speak for him at this point, because we have not discussed that.  But clearly, as we get closer to Jupiter, that is something we will have to touch on.”

In a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, Anthony Franco described the Cardinals’ winter as “a half-measure offseason,” given how the team hadn’t dealt any of its higher-salaried players, let alone Arenado.  Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray left the Cards’ hands tied by refusing to waive their own no-movement clauses, yet impending free agents Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz all seem like obvious trade candidates, and all remain on the roster here in mid-January.

Mozeliak provided some explanation for not moving Fedde or Matz today, noting that the Cards “don’t really love [the] idea” of potentially leaving the team short-handed on the pitching front.  “We really feel like we have some depth in our rotation right now, so I really don’t want to start preparing tearing away from that, in terms of thinking about moving a position player to achieve some financial goals,” Mozeliak said.  “That would be something we could consider as well, but we really don’t want to.”

Fedde is owed $7.5MM in 2025, while Matz is owed $12MM and would likely be more of a salary-dump candidate given his injuries and struggles in recent years.  Helsley will receive $8.2MM in his final season of team control.  While all have substantial salaries, the $27.2MM total is only slightly less than the $27MM owed to Arenado in 2025, when Colorado’s $5MM contribution is subtracted from his $32MM price tag.  Between that math and the $27MM also owed to Arenado in 2026, it seems like the Cardinals simply want to exhaust all possibilities in moving Arenado before moving onto other payroll-cutting moves.

The more salary St. Louis is able to unload, the more the team can also add to the roster.  Mozeliak suggested that if the money becomes available, the club could look at “obviously [the] bullpen” or possibly “a right-handed bat with some thump, something like that.”  The Cardinals have a decent amount of lineup balance already, but with Arenado on the move, the team would presumably be looking to replace him with another righty bat at a much lower price tag.  In theory, this bat might come in the outfield — right fielder Jordan Walker is right-handed, but Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani all swing from the left side.

The Cardinals Are Amidst A Half-Measure Offseason

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The Cardinals have made zero trades this offseason. Two months ago, that would've been a huge surprise. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak declared at the end of the season that the team would cut MLB payroll and give consistent reps to younger players. Seven of MLBTR's Top 35 trade candidates entering the winter were Cardinals.

All of them remain Cardinals with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report. They're not all analogous situations. In at least three cases, the Cards themselves were probably taken aback. Willson Contreras told the team he had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause. Sonny Gray has also expressed an interest in staying rather than waiving his own no-trade rights. Nolan Arenado is reportedly more open to moving, though he used his no-trade clause to kill a potential trade to Houston.

Mozeliak has openly stated the organization is trying to deal Arenado. The baseball operations leader has called that the simplest way to get the team's payroll where they want it to be. That could still come together, but it has proven tougher to orchestrate than the front office seemingly envisioned. The Astros have already moved on. Other teams are reportedly balking at taking a big portion of the $64MM remaining on the third baseman's contract. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote last week that talks on Arenado had stalled.

Those instances are beyond Mozeliak's control beyond the fact that he was willing to include no-trade clauses in Contreras' and Gray's free agent deals. (Arenado received his NTC from the Rockies when he signed his extension in 2019.) The front office probably expected those veterans would be eager to move rather than waiting out one or more transitional seasons. In that sense, the Cards are in an unenviable spot.

The most perplexing part of their offseason is that they haven't made any moves in response to those roadblocks. Their offseason has consisted of buying out Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton while claiming depth reliever Bailey Horn off waivers. That needs to change between now and Opening Day.

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17 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.

Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Pirates

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

—————————————

Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

Padres To Add Nick Punto, Robby Hammock To Coaching Staff

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The Padres are going to add a couple of former big leaguers to their coaching staff. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Nick Punto and Robby Hammock are going to be coming aboard, though their specific roles aren’t yet clear. Lin adds that Ryan Barba, the club’s major league field coordinator in 2024, recently left to join the Cardinals in some unspecified role.

Punto, 47, was in the big leagues from 2001 to 2014 as a utility player. He got into 1,163 games for the Phillies, Twins, Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers and Athletics. He hit .245/.323/.323 while playing every position on the diamond outside of the battery. He won a World Series ring with the Cards in 2011.

Hammock, also 47, was mostly a catcher but he also dabbled in the four corner spots. He played on-and-off for the Diamondbacks from 2003 to 2011, getting into 182 games. He hit .254/.312/.407 over his 527 plate appearances.

After his playing career ended, he transitioned into coaching with the D’Backs, working for various minor league clubs from 2012 to 2021. He then came to the Padres’ organization, serving as their Triple-A hitting coach in 2022. He then pivoted to the Pirates’ organization, managing the High-A Greensboro club in 2023 and then Double-A Altoona last year.

It’s unclear exactly what roles the two will have, but they will each bring an experienced voice to manager Mike Shildt’s staff. Shildt took over as San Diego’s skipper last year and the club went 93-69 in his first season.

Nolan Arenado Reportedly Less Likely To Be Traded

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The Nolan Arenado saga has been perhaps the main storyline of the Cardinals’ offseason. As the club looks to scale back payroll and open up playing time for younger players (Nolan Gorman, in particular), Arenado has become one of the most prominent trade candidates in the sport. His full no-trade clause, downturn at the plate since 2023 and remaining three years and $74MM ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies) all combine to complicate the matter, however; Arenado has already reportedly invoked that no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Astros, who pivoted in mere days and signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal instead (a contract nearly mirroring the $64MM they’d have owed to Arenado).

Agent Joel Wolfe said at last month’s Winter Meetings that Arenado was only open to trades to clubs where he felt he could win both in the short-term and for the remainder of his contract. It’s a bit odd that the Astros, who reached the playoffs in 2024 and reached the ALCS each season from 2017-23, didn’t fit that criteria, but there are surely multiple factors behind his decision.

Since that time, the Red Sox have been painted as the last and best hope for the Cardinals to orchestrate an Arenado trade. Even there, the situation is muddy. Acquiring Arenado would very likely mean moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, where Triston Casas currently resides. Casas could see more time at DH, though the Sox are committed to Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $54MM remaining, at that position. There’s the possibility of trading Casas, but Boston would surely need major league talent in return. It’s debatable whether they’d be better off with Arenado at third, Devers at first and whatever young talent they could get in return for Casas. Simultaneously, the Sox are considering a run at Alex Bregman (who’d also require shifting Devers to first and finding a trade for Casas or a taker for Yoshida). It’s all quite messy.

For those reasons and more, Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that he outlook on a possible Arenado deal is becoming increasingly bleak. Woo writes that efforts to move Arenado are at a “standstill” — in part because St. Louis isn’t interested in eating a notable chunk of the contract when part of their reason for wanting to move the third baseman is a desire to scale back spending. If no deal for Arenado materializes, per Woo, the Cards could look into other ways to trim payroll (and acquire young talent).

It’s quite arguable that the Cardinals should already be doing as much. The team isn’t making any efforts to improve the club for the upcoming season, after all, and the Cards are fresh off an 83-79 season. They’ve bid farewell to Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge in free agency. Absent any effort to truly push closer to contention, it’s a stretch to think the Cardinals will make massive strides within the NL Central — let alone emerge as a bona fide threat in the postseason even if they limp to a playoff berth through a good showing within a weak division.

St. Louis has plenty of appealing players who’ll be free agents after the season and could be marketed to other clubs. Starter Erick Fedde ($7.5MM), closer Ryan Helsley ($8.2MM) and to a lesser extent veteran starter Steven Matz ($12MM) would all pique the interest of other clubs. That’s also true of setup man JoJo Romero, who’s controlled only through 2026. If the Cards aren’t taking a wholehearted aim at contending in 2025 anyhow, there’s good reason to explore trades of those players in the here and now, rather than risk a downturn in value following injuries or a poor first half of the season.

Moving Fedde or Matz would thin out the current rotation depth for a club that needs innings, though there’s of course the possibility to backfill via free agency. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this week that the club still has some interest in Mizzou product Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed pitching close to home last year and played a key mentor role for many of the team’s young players. Trading Fedde for prospects, for instance, and signing Gibson to replenish those innings could bolster the long-term outlook. It might not significantly reduce payroll on its own — it may slightly increase it, in fact — but it’d benefit the long-term health of the organization. Such a trade could also be coupled with deals of Matz and/or Helsley as well. Goold notes that both Fedde and Matz have drawn interest throughout the winter, which is only logical given the soaring price of free-agent pitching.

While The Athletic and Post-Dispatch continue to caution that chances of a trade don’t look great right now — Ken Rosenthal suggested as much today on Fair Territory, as well — MLB.com and MLB Network frame things differently. John Denton wrote this week that the Red Sox could soon pull out of the Bregman bidding, which would greatly improve the chances of an Arenado trade with St. Louis. The third baseman has already formally told the club he’d green-light a deal to Boston, per Denton, and he’s talked with friend and former teammate Trevor Story about the possibility of reuniting at Fenway Park.

Further, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested on air this morning that as options have begun to dwindle, Arenado has begun to take a more open-minded approach. Some clubs that showed interest last month but didn’t pursue trades because of Arenado’s narrow list of criteria could come back into play, per Morosi. He suggests the Mariners and Tigers as two such clubs, though it’s virtually impossible to see how the Mariners could be considered a viable suitor given their well-documented financial constraints this winter.

The Tigers are a more plausible fit on paper, but they’ve spent quite conservatively under president of baseball ops Scott Harris; perhaps they’d have interest, but it’s hard to see them paying full freight on that contract, particularly when they have some third base options in house already (including top prospect Jace Jung).

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this morning that the Royals were among the teams that reached out to the Cardinals last month but didn’t pursue a trade because of a belief that Arenado wouldn’t green-light the deal. The Royals are still seeking another bat, and incumbent Maikel Garcia is a glove-first player with a lighter bat than even the recently diminished version of Arenado. Kansas City also traded its top third base prospect, Cayden Wallace, to the Nationals in last summer’s Hunter Harvey swap.

However, Arenado’s contract would figure to be quite problematic for the Royals. Beyond the $64MM total he’s owed is the fact that said commitment is front-loaded; Arenado is owed $32MM this coming season ($5MM being covered by Colorado). The Royals’ payroll is already close to $10MM higher than it was a year ago, per RosterResource. Rosenthal noted in the aforementioned Fair Territory segment (17:50 mark) that he was surprised Kansas City even eked out another $7MM to re-sign Michael Lorenzen. Piling an additional $27MM onto the payroll and pushing their Opening Day would push payroll close to or slightly north of $150MM. That’d top the current franchise record of $143MM, set back in 2017. Arenado might represent a clearer upgrade to the Royals or Mariners than to some other speculative fits, but neither seems to have the financial wherewithal to bring him aboard — even if Arenado were willing to approve the deal.

If that feels like a lot of words effectively downplaying the possibility of a trade and maintaining the status quo — well, it is. The simple reality is that Arenado was never going to be an easy player to move, and his decision to quash a trade to Houston — and the Astros’ immediate pivot — probably eliminated the best chance of the Cardinals moving him at all. Absent a new approach from the Yankees — New York offered Marcus Stroman for Arenado earlier this winter, which didn’t interest St. Louis — there’s no long-term contender with a clear need at third base and ample payroll space to take on a 34-year-old player whose bat appears to be on the decline.

Chances of a trade shouldn’t be considered dead and buried, of course. Spring injuries could always create a need for a big-payroll contender whose options at that juncture are limited. Such circumstances could prove a meaningful catalyst. Trades elsewhere on the market could alter another team’s considerations at the hot corner and spark some interest in Arenado. For now, however, it seems increasingly likely that Arenado may not have the market to facilitate a trade. If the Cardinals begrudgingly come to feel the same, it could create some fascinating ripple effects with regard to the rest of their roster.

Cardinals Claim Bailey Horn

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The Cardinals announced that they have claimed left-handed reliever Bailey Horn off waivers from the Tigers. Detroit designated him for assignment last week. The Cardinals already have multiple open 40-man spots, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary.

The 26-year-old Horn has now ridden the waiver carousel from Boston, to Detroit to St. Lous in just over a month’s time. He made his big league debut with the Red Sox in 2024, pitching 18 innings and surrendering 13 runs on the strength of 22 hits and 10 walks with 13 strikeouts. The resulting 6.50 ERA isn’t much to look at, but Horn is a 2020 fifth-rounder (White Sox) who’s had some success in the upper minors and been involved in one trade of some note — when the Sox sent him crosstown to the Cubs in a 2021 deal for Ryan Tepera.

Last year with the Red Sox, who acquired him in April following another DFA, he tossed 29 1/3 innings in Triple-A and logged a minuscule 2.15 ERA with an impressive 29.2% strikeout rate. Horn’s 11.7% walk rate was too high, but those rate stats are generally representative of how he’s performed throughout his minor league career. He’s punched out 29% of his opponents in four minor league seasons but also issued a walk to nearly 13% of the batters he’s faced.

Horn still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, making him a flexible bullpen piece for the Cardinals in the short- or perhaps long-term. He sits just shy of 95 mph on his heater and misses bats at a high enough level to provide some intrigue for a Cards organization that’s light on bullpen certainty (particularly if closer Ryan Helsley is traded before Opening Day or prior to the summer trade deadline).

One thing St. Louis does have a fair bit of, however, is left-handed relief depth. Horn will join a mix including JoJo Romero, John King, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. They’re not all proven in the majors, but it’s a solid collection of southpaws all the same. Romero is only controlled through 2026, so if things go south for the Cards in the season’s first half, he could end up a summer trade chip himself, potentially opening the door even further for an opportunity for the newly acquired Horn.

Cardinals Have Discussed Multi-Year Deals With Donovan, Nootbaar

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8:50am: Denton now reports that a multi-year deal no longer appears likely to be reached by today’s deadline to exchange figures. The two parties can, of course, continue negotiations on a multi-year pact even after arbitration figures have been exchanged. Similarly, the Cards and Donovan could come to terms on a one-year deal today and continue negotiations on a multi-year deal between now and Opening Day.

8:05am: The Cardinals are nearing a multi-year agreement with utilityman Brendan Donovan, reports John Denton of MLB.com. Donovan, a client of the Bledsoe Agency, was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.6MM in his first trip through the process. A multi-year deal would lock in the salary for at least two of his three arbitration seasons.

Denton adds that the Cards also discussed a multi-year arrangement with outfielder Lars Nootbaar, but the two parties haven’t been able to come to terms. He’s expected to agree to a one-year deal later today, avoiding an arbitration hearing in the process. Swartz projected Nootbaar for a $2.5MM salary in what is also his first offseason of eligibility. Like Donovan, Nootbaar is currently under club control through 2027.

Donovan, 28 later this month, has established himself as one of the game’s most valuable multi-position players. The versatile lefty hitter finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2022 and won a Gold Glove for his excellence across six different positions that season: all four infield slots and both outfield corners. Through three big league seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.364/.407 in just shy of 1500 plate appearances.

Donovan is light on power (30 career homers, .126 ISO) but draws walks at an above-average 9.4% clip and is one of the toughest players to strike out in all of baseball (career 13.7 K%, including 12.4 K% in 2024). He’s also fresh off a career-best 14 long balls, though that came in conjunction with a career-low 7.2% walk rate. Regardless of exactly how he’s gotten there, however, Donovan has been a decidedly above-average hitter in all three of his big league seasons, by measure of wRC+, and he’s capable of contributing sharp defense at third base, second base and in the outfield corners at the very least.

Whether the Cardinals are able to secure any free agent seasons in a multi-year deal remains to be seen. Both Denton and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggest that the Cards could approach a Donovan deal similarly to the manner in which they approached Tommy Edman’s case last winter: lock in his remaining arb seasons to obtain some cost certainty without extending the window of existing club control. There’s value in that for the Cards, to be sure, but tacking on at least one additional season would clearly be of greater benefit — if the two parties can find common ground. Donovan’s first free-agent season would be his age-31 campaign.

Nootbaar, 27, is coming off an injury-shortened season but still posted a solid .244/.342/.417 slash with a dozen homers in 405 trips to the plate last year. He’s slashed .246/.351/.426 with a 14% walk rate and 19.8% strikeout rate in 1255 plate appearances dating back to 2022. He’s proven himself capable of handling all three outfield spots but has drawn better marks for his glovework in the corners than in center. With the two sides unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal, it seems he’ll take a one-year pact and perhaps revisit multi-year talks next winter — ideally on the heels of a healthier season.

Donovan and Nootbaar are two of six arbitration-eligible Cardinals this winter. St. Louis also needs to hammer out deals with closer Ryan Helsley, righty Andre Pallante and lefties JoJo Romero and John King. The deadline to exchange salary figures is noon CT today. Like most teams, the Cardinals have adopted a file-and-trial approach in recent years, meaning they’ll use today’s deadline as an unofficial deadline to negotiate on one-year deals. Nothing is technically stopping teams and players from continuing to work toward one-year deals once figures are exchanged, but the vast majority of teams will only continue negotiating on multi-year deals (or one-year deals with an option) once figures have been swapped.

Red Sox Notes: Arenado, Casas, Bregman, Sasaki

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Reports last month from MLB.com’s John Denton indicated that the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Angels were six of the teams (and perhaps the only six teams) Nolan Arenado was willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, should the Cardinals work out an acceptable swap with any of these clubs.  Four weeks after that initial report, Boston remains “a preferred destination” for Arenado, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam.  What isn’t known, however, is if the Red Sox and Cardinals are anywhere close on a deal, or if the Sox are particularly motivated to bring Arenado to Beantown.

Acquiring Arenado would check a couple of big needs off of Boston’s offseason shopping list.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated earlier this week that the Sox were looking to add “a right-handed bat out of the middle of the lineup,” considering that the team is heavy with left-handed hitters.  Bringing one of the best defensive third basemen of all time to Fenway Park would instantly help Boston’s subpar infield defense, and Arenado would even be reunited with his good friend and former Rockies teammate Trevor Story.

One initial roadblock, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox already have a star third baseman in Rafael Devers.  Though Arenado has indicated that he is open to a position change in the right circumstance and Devers’ agent said in no uncertain terms in November that his client was staying at third base, it is hard to believe that Arenado would move off the hot corner in deference to a much weaker fielder in Devers.  If a trade did happen, Devers would presumably become the new first baseman or DH, though this creates other conflicts with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida.

Both of those players, however, have been mentioned in trade talks this winter, and even in some of the same trade talks.  Casas is the far more valuable trade asset of the two, and while Breslow said “we’re certainly not shopping him,” that naturally doesn’t mean Casas is off limits.  Indeed, Cotillo and McAdam write that “there remains a belief in the industry that the Red Sox remain open to trading Casas, potentially for young pitching, to facilitate other roster maneuvering.”

It could be that the Sox are looking to first trade Casas before making any other moves, as their leverage in a Casas deal would be lessened if the Red Sox created a positional logjam beforehand.  Trading Casas purely as a vehicle to clear payroll space surely isn’t Breslow’s preference, which is why that aforementioned attempt to link Yoshida and Casas together was still part of an attempt to bring Luis Castillo from Seattle to Boston.

Payroll is also a major aspect of any Arenado trade, as the third baseman is owed $74MM over the remaining three seasons of his contract.  Between deferrals and the $10MM being covered by the Rockies, the present-day value of Arenado’s contract reportedly works out to $60MM.  The Cardinals’ chief incentive in trading Arenado is naturally to move as much of this money as possible, and the proposed deal with the Astros that Arenado blocked would’ve seen Houston take on either $45MM (as per Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of the Athletic) or $59MM (as per ESPN’s Jeff Passan) of the $60MM figure.

Theoretically, the Red Sox could absorb the entire contract and still stay under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource estimates Boston’s current tax number at just under $212MM.  It remains unclear exactly how much payroll capacity Breslow has been allotted this winter, as while the Sox have made overtures to several top free agents, their spending has been pretty modest to date.  The Red Sox could perhaps convince the Cardinals to take on a bigger chunk of Arenado’s salary (or at least closer to the $45MM figure) if better prospects are offered in return.  Chaim Bloom’s involvement in this speculative trade is an interesting wrinkle, as the incoming St. Louis president of baseball operations has plenty of knowledge of Boston’s farm system due to his past stint as the Red Sox CBO.

Trading for Arenado would come at a lesser overall cost than signing Alex Bregman, another top third baseman who remains on Boston’s radar.  That said, the Red Sox are known to still be in the running for Bregman, who has some notable ties to the Sox in manager Alex Cora (from their days together in Houston) and his longtime friend Walker Buehler, who just signed with the Sox himself before Christmas.  Buehler recently told Cotillo and other reporters that even in his brief time in a Sox uniform, “I have certainly made a pitch all over the place for [Bregman] to come to Boston.”

Turning to other Red Sox targets, it remains unknown if Boston is still one of the teams getting consideration from Roki Sasaki.  Earlier this week, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe updated reporters on his client’s search for a Major League team, and didn’t give any indication that the right-hander was finished with his in-person meetings with interested clubs.

The Red Sox weren’t one of the seven teams known to have spoken with Sasaki already, and word hasn’t broken if a meeting has been scheduled or perhaps it is has already taken place since Wolfe’s last presser.  As of yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that the Sox hadn’t “been told they are out of” the running for Sasaki’s services, so the situation is still up in the air.

Cardinals “In The Market” For Late-Inning Relief Help

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The Cardinals are “in the market” for a setup reliever who can help replace right-hander Andrew Kittredge near the back of their bullpen after he hit free agency back in November, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

It’s not necessarily surprising that the Cardinals would have interest in adding to their bullpen. Aside from the void left by Kittredge in the late innings, closer Ryan Helsley has found his name in the rumor mill frequently this winter. While all signs point to the club keeping him in the fold for at least the start of the 2025 season, the addition of a veteran reliever with experience in the late innings could provide cover for St. Louis that would allow them to more seriously weigh dealing Helsley in the event that they receive the sort of overwhelming offer that would compel them to reconsider their stance. While the loss of Helsley would be a tough blow for the club’s bullpen regardless of what pitcher (or pitchers) they add to their relief corps this winter, it would certainly be easier for the Cards to attempt to stay competitive in 2025 without Helsley in the fold if they have an experienced veteran who could step into the closer’s role in Helsley’s stead.

The more likely scenario, of course, is that the club will stick with its apparent plan to retain Helsley headed into the season. Even in that case, however, it’s easy to see why the club would want to bolster its bullpen as a way to keep Helsley firmly in his current role as the club’s closer. 2024 was the first year of Helsley’s career where he was utilized exclusively in the ninth inning or later, and he responded with a 206 ERA+ and an MLB-best 49 saves. Goold suggests that the steady presence of Kittredge, who posted a 2.80 ERA and collected 37 holds with the Cardinals last year, was a key part of the reason the Cardinals were able to be more judicious in their deployment of Helsley in comparison to years’ past.

As much sense as it could make for the Cardinals to add at least one veteran reliever to their bullpen this winter, it’s a path that isn’t without obstacles. It’s been made abundantly clear through a number of reports and even president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s comments this winter that lowering payroll is a priority for St. Louis this winter. The most obvious way to do that, and the Cardinals’ clear preference, is to find a trade partner for Nolan Arenado. Recent reporting has suggested a quiet market for Arenado ever since a potential deal with the Astros last month fell through, however, and for his part Goold indicates that the Cardinals may be best served waiting out fellow third baseman Alex Bregman’s market given the potential for overlapping suitors between the two infielders.

With no public indications that Bregman is especially close to signing, that could mean the Cardinals will need to wait for quite some time before they can seriously consider adding more payroll of real significance. Fortunately for St. Louis, the relief market has been very slow moving this winter with Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi García standing out as the only players to sign for more than $10MM to this point in that corner of the market. Whether the Cardinals would be interested in playing in that mid-tier of the relief market will surely depend on how much (if any) of Arenado’s contract they manage to move, as well as whether or not they part ways with hurlers like Steven Matz and Erick Fedde this winter after both starters garnered interest earlier this winter. Even if Matz or Fedde is moved, Goold suggests that the club could consider circling back to veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson rather than signing a pricier relief arm like David Robertson.

Given the slow pace of the relief market this winter, the Cardinals should still have a good amount of flexibility to make an addition to their bullpen whenever their payroll situation is properly resolved. Goold speculatively suggests former Rangers righty José Leclerc as a potential fit for the Cards, and players like Kyle Finnegan, Chris Martin, and Paul Sewald are among a handful of other options for late-inning veterans who could feasibly be had on one-year deals—as is a reunion with Kittredge himself. Each of those options will surely secure a reasonably healthy big league guarantee, however, and if the Cardinals find themselves unable to move any of their pricey veterans on the trade market it’s possible they won’t have interest in adding that sort of salary. In that case, Héctor Neris, Scott Barlow, and Joe Kelly are a handful of the veteran relievers with late-inning experience coming off difficult seasons in 2024 who could be available for a club on a tight budget like St. Louis.

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