Cardinals Rumors

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Middleton, Friedl

By Nick Deeds | May 4, 2024 at 8:15pm CDT

The Brewers announced a handful of roster moves prior to this afternoon’s game against the Cubs, most notably of which saw the club place outfielder Joey Wiemer on the 10-day injured list with left knee discomfort. Infielder Andruw Monasterio was called up to replace Wiemer on the roster.

What once appeared to be a glut of outfield talent has quickly evaporated due to injuries in Milwaukee with Wiemer now joining Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell on the shelf. Wiemer had been scuffling at the time of his injury, with just four hits to his name in the majors this season, although those struggles came in a microscopic sample of just 24 trips to the plate. Between his career .269/.296/.492 slash line against southpaws and his strong glove in the outfield, Wiemer figured to be a strong fourth outfielder for the Brewers while Mitchell and Yelich were on the shelf.

Now, however, Wiemer is headed to the shelf without a return in sight. While Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed that the outfielder underwent an MRI that revealed no ligament damage, he added that Wiemer had “no idea” when he’d be able to return from the strained muscle in his left knee. Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio and Blake Perkins figure to handle the outfield on a regular basis in Wiemer’s absence, though behind that group only Jake Bauers has played even an inning on the outfield grass this season of the players currently on the roster. Youngster Chris Roller currently stands as the Brewers’ most experienced outfielder on the 40-man roster, though he has yet to make his big league debut and has struggled to an 89 wRC+ at Triple-A this season.

More from around the NL Central…

Cardinals reliever Keynan Middleton appears to be making good progress in his bid to return from a forearm strain that sidelined him during Spring Training, as he told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that he hasn’t felt any discomfort in his arm since receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow last month. Per Jones, Middleton expects to pitch off a mound twice more on Tuesday and Friday before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment if all goes well during those outings. The return of Middleton, who dominated down the stretch with the Yankees last year to a 1.88 ERA with a 30.4% strikeout rate, would bolster a St. Louis bullpen that ranks just middle-of-the-pack with a 3.81 ERA despite an excellent xFIP of 3.30 and a strong 25.6% strikeout rate.
Reds outfielder TJ Friedl is doing well in his recovery from a right wrist fracture suffered prior to the start of the season, with MLB.com’s Injury Tracker noting that manager David Bell told reporters yesterday that the 28-year-old is on a “fast track” toward returning to the big league club. Friedl began a rehab assignment earlier this week and, according to Bell, will return to the majors “whenever we feel he’s gotten enough at-bats” in the minor leagues. Friedl enjoyed something of a breakout season last year as he slashed an impressive .279/.352/.467 in 138 games as the club’s everyday center fielder and should provide a big boost to a Reds club that has relied on Stuart Fairchild and Bubba Thompson in center in his absence.

Cardinals Place Steven Matz On Injured List Due To Back Strain

By Darragh McDonald | May 3, 2024 at 12:57pm CDT

The Cardinals announced that left-hander Steven Matz has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 1, due to a lower back strain. Right-hander Kyle Leahy was recalled in a corresponding move.

The Cards signed the southpaw to a four-year, $44MM deal going into 2022 but they’ve gotten little return on that investment so far. Matz battled shoulder issues for much of 2022 and only tossed 48 innings with a 5.25 earned run average. Last year, he struggled out of the gate and got moved to the bullpen. He got in a good groove and retook a rotation spot as they played out the string on a lost season, finishing strong enough to have a 3.86 ERA by season’s end.

The club was surely hoping he could carry some momentum from that solid finish into 2024, and he did for a brief moment. After three starts, Matz had allowed just three earned runs and had a 1.80 ERA. But he’s allowed 16 earned runs in his three most recent outings, swelling his ERA to 6.18 for the year.

Per Katie Woo of The Athletic (X link), an issue cropped up with Matz’s back after his April 23 outing. The club had an off-day on April 25 and then a rainout April 29, which meant Matz got some extra rest before taking the ball again on April 30. It was hoped that the extra time would help him get beyond the back problem, but that didn’t come to pass. His velocity was down in that last start and he was pulled after allowing four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He was sent for an MRI yesterday, per Woo on X, and it seems the club has decided to put Matz on the shelf for at least a couple of weeks.

That will leave the club with Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas as healthy starters, but they will need a fifth at some point. As of today, the Cards are playing 13 games in a row before their next off-day.

Drew Rom was recently transferred to the 60-day injured list and won’t be an option. Matthew Liberatore could be considered but he’s been in the bullpen and isn’t stretched out. Zach Thompson was in the big league rotation before being being moved to the bullpen and then optioned to the minors. He tossed 3 2/3 innings in his most recent Triple-A start.

Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are each stretched out at Triple-A on on the 40-man, though Kloffenstein has a 5.93 ERA this year. Robberse is in much better form with a 1.77 ERA through six Triple-A starts, though he just started last night and likely wouldn’t be called up before Tuesday. Prospects Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy are also stretched out in Triple-A, but neither is on the 40-man and they both have worse results than Robberse so far.

Cardinals Select Kyle Leahy

By Steve Adams | April 30, 2024 at 11:36am CDT

The Cardinals have selected the contract of right-hander Kyle Leahy and added him to the active roster as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader against the Tigers, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. Lefty Drew Rom has been transferred to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move.

Leahy, 26, made his big league debut last season but pitched just 1 2/3 innings, yielding four runs in that brief look. The Cards passed him throughout outright waivers unclaimed following the season and retained the right-hander, whom they selected in the 17th round of the 2018 draft.

The Cards moved Leahy from a starting role to the bullpen in 2023 but didn’t get the desired results; he posted a 6.26 ERA in 83 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level (four starts, 42 relief appearances). He’s posted a similarly unpalatable 5.84 mark through his first 12 2/3 frames this year, but Leahy is sporting much-improved strikeout and walk rates of 26.4% and 7.5%, respectively. He’s already been tagged for four long balls, but if he can curtail that trend, the blend of missed bats, strong command and an above-average 45.5% ground-ball rate is interesting.

This is the second of three option years for Leahy. He has a good bit of work to do in order to carve out some staying power on the 40-man roster, but he’ll get his first opportunity of the 2024 season to do so today. If he ends up sticking on the roster, he’d be controllable for at least six seasons.

As for the 24-year-old Rom, he’s been sidelined by a biceps issue all season. Jones reported last week that the southpaw was ticketed for a visit with Dr. Keith Meister to further assess the injury. The results of that visit haven’t been made clear just yet, but given that he was still seeking additional opinions in late April, Rom’s move to the 60-day IL shouldn’t come as a major surprise. He’s still clearly feeling discomfort, so even if that visit revealed no additional injuries of note, the southpaw likely isn’t close to returning. His original IL placement was retroactive to March 25, and the “60-day” term includes all the time already spent on the shelf. He’ll be eligible to return in late May.

The Cardinals acquired Rom, Cesar Prieto and Zack Showalter from the Orioles last summer in the deadline deal sending Jack Flaherty to Baltimore. Rom made his MLB debut with St. Louis in the second half of the ’23 season but was rocked for 30 earned runs in 33 2/3 innings across eight starts. The former fourth-round pick has a career 4.75 ERA in 134 2/3 Triple-A frames. If healthy, he’d have been among the Cardinals’ depth options in the rotation to begin the season, but it’s not yet clear when he’ll be a realistic option for them.

NL Central Notes: Imanaga, Pirates, Brewers, Carpenter, Reds

By Mark Polishuk | April 28, 2024 at 10:58pm CDT

Before the Cubs signed Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal, the other finalists for Imanaga’s services were the Red Sox, Pirates, and Brewers, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Boston’s interest in Imanaga was well-known, and Pittsburgh had also been linked to Imanaga’s market, even if the Bucs’ traditional lack of spending makes it somewhat surprising to learn that they apparently came relatively close to landing the southpaw. Of course, “finalist” is a bit of a nebulous term, and it isn’t known just how close the Pirates might’ve come to Chicago in the bidding. For instance, the Red Sox offered Imanaga two years and $26MM in guaranteed money according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, with two more vesting years covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

The Brewers are also a surprise entry, as it wasn’t publicly known that they were in on Imanaga at all, let alone one of the last four suitors in the running for his services. Milwaukee also often operates with a limited payroll (albeit not as limited as the Pirates’ budget), and it’s interesting to speculate on what the team might’ve offered Imanaga, or whether signing the Japanese star might’ve kept from the Crew from any of their other winter business. For instance, if the Brewers had signed Imanaga, would they have still had enough spending capacity to bring back Brandon Woodruff and/or Wade Miley, or would any further pitching additions would’ve been strictly of the lower-cost or minor league variety if Imanaga had been the team’s big offseason strike. As Nightengale observes, any of Imanaga’s other suitors might have some regrets given how the left-hander has gotten his MLB career off to such a great start.

Some other notes from around the NL Central…

Matt Carpenter recently received a cortisone shot to deal with the oblique strain that has kept him on the injured list for almost four weeks, MLB.com’s John Denton writes (X link). The shot led to a shutdown, and it isn’t clear when Carpenter will be ready to begin a minor league rehab assignment, though he has been able to take batting practice. Carpenter reunited with the Cardinals on a one-year deal this past winter, but played in just three games before suffering his oblique problem.
X-rays were negative on both Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson after the Reds duo were each hit on the hand by pitches in Saturday’s game. Encarnacion-Strand might be the slightly more serious situation of the two, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the infielder’s X-ray revealed a small previous fracture in the same spot that CES was hit on Saturday. Encarnacion-Strand said he had “no clue” about the origin of the older injury, and he hadn’t felt any discomfort prior to this most recent HBP. It isn’t yet clear if Encarnacion-Strand will get an MRI to further explore the injury, but he hoped to return to the lineup within a day or two.

NL Central Notes: Wicks, Junis, Carlson

By Nick Deeds | April 27, 2024 at 8:43pm CDT

The Cubs are in for their second bullpen game in as many days tomorrow, as Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune was among those to relay that left-hander Jordan Wicks has been scratched from his scheduled start tomorrow due to forearm tightness. Right-hander Hayden Wesneski will start the game in Wicks’s place just three days after pitching 2 1/3 scoreless frames against the Astros Thursday afternoon.

It’s not currently clear how serious Wicks’s injury is or if a stint on the injured list will be required, but a lengthy absence would be a major blow to the Cubs. The club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has pitched solidly for the Cubs through five starts this season, posting a roughly league average 4.70 ERA and a much stronger 3.25 FIP in 23 innings of work. An trip to the shelf for Wicks would further exacerbate Chicago’s early-season injury woes. Hurlers Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, and Julian Merryweather are all currently on the injured list (though the former may be back soon) while the positional corps has lost both Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger from its outfield mix.

The laundry list of injuries has left the Cubs somewhat thin in terms of rotation options, with both Ben Brown and now Wesneski stepping in to make starts after previously pitching out of the bullpen for the big league club. Chicago signed veteran right-hander Julio Teheran to a minor league deal in earlier this month, and the 33-year-old righty and lefty Thomas Pannone among the club’s top non-roster depth options for the rotation.

More from the NL Central…

Brewers right-hander Jakob Junis suffered a scary incident earlier this week when he was struck by an errant fly ball during the club’s pregame workouts prior to a game against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Fortunately, Junis is back traveling with the team and spoke to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel yesterday. The right-hander noted that he underwent an MRI and CT scan, both of which came back clean, before he was released from the hospital. Now that he’s back with the team, it appears Junis is set to continue rehabbing from the shoulder impingement that has cost him most of the season to this point. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Brewers manager Pat Murphy recently indicated that the club may look to bring Junis back into the fold as a reliever rather than build him up to start. It’s something of a surprise given the recent injuries suffered by lefties DL Hall and Wade Miley, though it’s possible that a multi-inning relief role could allow the Brewers to maximize Junis’s innings in the short-term.
Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson has missed the entire season to this point after suffering a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before Opening Day. Fortunately, however, it appears that the 25-year-old could be nearing his season debut. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Carlson is set to begin a rehab assignment in the near future if he comes out of a hitting session today pain-free. The return of Carlson would be most welcome for St. Louis, as the club recently optioned struggling youngster Jordan Walker to the minor leagues. With Carlson and Tommy Edman both on the injured list, that’s left the club to rely on Michael Siani and Alec Burleson as major contributors to the outfield mix alongside Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.

MLBTR Podcast Mailbag: Cardinals’ Troubles, Jazz Chisholm, Bad Umpiring And More

By Darragh McDonald | April 24, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…

Which of the division leaders have the most or least staying power? (3:10)
What does it look like if the Cardinals are selling at the deadline? (11:20)
Do the Cardinals have a problem with coaching or player development? (18:50)
When the Braves traded Marco Gonzales and Max Stassi, why did they trade for a player to be named later or cash when they were paying most of the salaries for both players? (22:35)
Will the Marlins trade Jazz Chisholm Jr. if they are out of contention in July? (24:45)
You’re designing a pitcher in a lab to succeed in today’s game and mitigate the likelihood of an injury. What is their profile and what pitches do they throw? (28:35)
Why isn’t there more umpire accountability? (33:30)
Why are the Pirates committed to hitting coach Andy Haines? (35:45)
Compare the cost of a Falcon 9 launch to the Javier Báez contract. How much could the Tigers save? (38:55)
Should the Tigers send Parker Meadows down and should the Giants release Mike Yastrzemski? (40:05)

Check out our past episodes!

Free Agent Power Rankings, Shohei Ohtani’s Stolen Money And The A’s Moving To Sacramento – listen here
Reviewing Our Free Agent Predictions And Future CBA Issues – listen here
Baseball Is Back, Will Smith’s Extension, Mike Clevinger And Jon Berti – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!

Cardinals Option Jordan Walker

By Steve Adams | April 24, 2024 at 10:17am CDT

The Cardinals announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned right fielder Jordan Walker and lefty Zack Thompson to Triple-A Memphis. Infielder Jose Fermin and southpaw John King are being recalled from Memphis to take their spots on the roster.

It’s been a brutal start to the season for the 21-year-old Walker, who entered the 2023 season widely considered one of the game’s top 10 prospects and debuted with a .276/.342/.445 showing as a rookie. He’s looked lost at the plate in his sophomore season, hitting just .155/.239/.259 with a 26.9% strikeout rate and no home runs in his first 67 trips to the plate. Given the magnitude of those struggles and the Cardinals’ 10-14 start to the season — fifth in the NL Central — they’ll send Walker down to try to get the promising young slugger back on track.

This isn’t the first time the Cards have sent Walker to Memphis amid some struggles at the plate. Though he made the Opening Day roster in St. Louis last season and began his career with a 12-game hitting streak, Walker slumped in the aftermath and was optioned to Triple-A in late April — both to get his bat back on track and to afford the converted third baseman some additional reps in right field. His defense remains a work in progress, but Walker returned to the big leagues on June 2 and turned in a stout .277/.346/.455 batting line with 16 home runs, an 8.8% walk rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate in his final 387 plate appearances on the season.

With Walker down in Memphis, the Cardinals will go with Alec Burleson in left field, Michael Siani in center and Lars Nootbaar in right field. It’s not the alignment the team envisioned heading into the season, but they’re still without Dylan Carlson (shoulder sprain) and Tommy Edman (recovering from wrist surgery) and have also optioned prospect Victor Scott II to Memphis in the wake of his own struggles (.085/.138/.136 in 65 plate appearances).

From a service time vantage point, Walker’s optional assignment doesn’t figure to change his free agent timeline but could potentially alter his path to arbitration. He accrued 149 days of service in 2023, setting him up to reach Super Two status following the 2025 season and reach arbitration four times rather than three. If Walker is only down for a few weeks, he’ll very likely remain on that path. If his optional assignment extends a month or more, as it did in ’23, it’s possible he could wind up falling shy of Super Two status and be on a more standard arbitration path. Either way, he’s already picked up enough service this season to reach the one-year mark, so he remains on track for free agency following the 2029 season.

Fermin’s recall to the big leagues is of some note for the Cards, given his early performance in Memphis. The 25-year-old hit just .235/.339/.255 in 61 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut and was generally credited with bottom-of-the-scale power on scouting reports. He’s torn the cover off the ball in his first 72 plate appearances this year, however, belting four homers and hitting .350/.458/.650 with 11 walks (15.3%) against just three strikeouts (4.2%). He’s chipped in six doubles and also gone 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts. It’s unlikely he can sustain that level of production against major league pitching, of course, but he’s earned the opportunity to carve out a role on the big league roster.

Thompson, 26, made two starts early in the season but was rocked for eight runs in 10 1/3 innings. He moved back to the bullpen and has been working in a long relief role. The results haven’t been any better. Though he fired 3 1/3 shutout innings with six strikeouts against the Phillies on April 10, he’s followed that up with 10 runs over his next two appearances. He’ll give way to King, who allowed a run in 2 1/3 innings earlier this season and has yielded two runs in 5 1/3 Triple-A frames thus far.

NL Central Notes: Montas, Alzolay, Cardinals

By Mark Polishuk | April 21, 2024 at 6:12pm CDT

The Reds’ 3-0 shutout of the Angels today saw five relievers combine for 8 1/3 innings of work, after a forearm bruise forced starter Frankie Montas out of the game in the first inning. Montas was struck by a Taylor Ward line drive and was still able to throw Ward out at first base, though he then left the mound after an examination from the team trainer. X-rays revealed no fractures, though Montas told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) after the game that there is enough soreness and swelling that it seems unlikely that he’ll make his next start.

That next start is set for Friday against the Rangers, and since the Reds don’t have another off-day until May 2, another start would have to be covered if Montas needs more recovery time than just the one turn through the rotation. It seems like the injured list might therefore be a possibility for Montas just so the Reds aren’t left short-handed, though the team figures to evaluate Montas over the next few days before making a decision. Montas has a 4.19 ERA over 19 1/3 innings for Cincinnati this season, as he followed up two strong opening starts with much shakier performances in his two outings prior to today’s abbreviated appearance.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

By Darragh McDonald | April 18, 2024 at 8:19pm CDT

The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 17, 2024 at 7:06pm CDT

We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

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