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Cubs Acquire Nate Pearson

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The Cubs have acquired right-hander Nate Pearson in a trade with the Blue Jays, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan (X link).  Toronto will receive minor league outfielder Yohendrick Pinango and minor league infielder Josh Rivera in return. The Jays also placed closer Jordan Romano on the 60-day injured list.

Pearson was selected 28th overall in the 2017 draft, just one pick after the Cubs took left-hander Brendon Little (who currently pitches for the Jays).  A broken arm and an oblique injury limited him to just 1 2/3 innings in 2018, but he re-emerged with a vengeance in 2019, rocketing up the minor league ladder to Triple-A Buffalo by season’s end and establishing himself as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects.  MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both ranked him within the overall top 10 of their preseason prospect rankings in advance of the 2020 season, and that year saw Pearson make his MLB debut in the form of five appearances for the Jays during the pandemic-shortened campaign.

Since pitching 101 2/3 innings in the minors in 2019, Pearson has barely topped that total in terms of big league experience, with 115 2/3 frames on his resume in the Show.  Pearson has posted a 5.21 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate in the majors, with a 15.1% homer rate contributing to that unimpressive ERA.

All but five of Pearson’s 93 big league appearances have come as a reliever, as Toronto shifted Pearson to the bullpen in an effort to keep him healthy after a number of injury setbacks.  From 2020-22, Pearson had to deal with such varied issues as a flexor strain, a lat strain, mono, groin problems, and a hernia surgery, which limited his time on the mound and prevented him from any MLB action whatsoever in 2022.

Pearson has been healthy over the last two years, but his performance has been inconsistent as best, dashing the Blue Jays’ hopes that Pearson could at least become a high-leverage relief weapon.  He is one of the league’s harder throwers with a fastball that averages 97.6mph, but batters have teed off that heater to the tune of a .342 average this season.  Pearson’s slider has been a much more effective offering, but opposing hitters have learned to lay off the slider and chase the fastball, to great success.

Pearson recently expressed an interest in returning to a starting role, which would’ve seemingly been something the Jays would’ve been open to given their rotation and the organization’s overall uncertain future direction in the midst of an underwhelming season.  Today’s trade, however, closes the door on Pearson’s Blue Jays tenure entirely, and it perhaps hints at a change in Toronto’s plans for the trade deadline.  The Jays had reportedly been only planning to move rental or shorter-term players, while keeping a lot of their core in place for another run at contention in 2025.

Since Pearson is only in his first year of arbitration eligibility and is controlled through the 2026 campaign, the deal could signal the Jays’ willingness to expand their list of trade candidates, perhaps if the club is considering that some level of a rebuild is in order.  Then again, it could be that the Blue Jays were open to moving Pearson simply because they no longer consider him any kind of core piece — a letdown for the franchise, given that Pearson seemed like a future cornerstone not long ago.

The Cubs are struggling through a disappointing year of their own, with a 49-56 record in comparison to Toronto’s 47-56 mark.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said earlier this week that the club is already looking ahead to 2025 in terms of potential deadline pickups, and to that end Pearson represents an interesting change-of-scenery candidate.  The righty turns 28 next month, so there’s still lots of time for a second act to his career as either a reliever or starter.  Between Pearson’s prospect pedigree and two years of remaining arb control, there’s some major buy-low upside for the Cubs if the right-hander is able to find his form in Wrigleyville.  Peter Gammons (via X) reports that the Red Sox were also interested in Pearson, though it stands to reason that the Jays might’ve preferred to move the righty outside the AL East.

Baseball America ranks Pinango 17th among Cubs prospects, while MLB Pipeline has him 29th.  The outfielder was an international signing in 2018 and he has spent the majority of his career in high-A ball, only reaching Double-A for the first time this season and hitting .223/.316/.345 with four homers in 225 PA for Double-A Tennessee.  BA’s scouting report notes that the 22-year-old’s attempts to focus on adding power in 2022-23 led to diminished numbers overall, but he has shown a better approach in 2024 and posted improved hard-contact numbers and a better chase rate.  Defensively, Pinango is an average defender probably best suited to left field or even first base over the long term, and the latter position would naturally put more pressure on him to deliver more at the plate.

Rivera is 23rd on Pipeline’s list but wasn’t included in Baseball America’s Cubs top 30, perhaps owing to his .169/.277/.260 slash line over 253 PA at Double-A Tennessee this season.  Like Pinango, Rivera is also playing Double-A ball for the first time, and it has been a pretty quick progression since Rivera was only drafted last year, in the third round.  The University of Florida product has played mostly shortstop as a pro with some second base and third base time, and Pipeline projects him as “an offensive-minded utilityman” given his raw skills at the plate and his ability to competently play multiple positions, even if he isn’t a standout in the field.

Rogers and Passan (X link) were the first to report that Pearson was heading to Chicago.  ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported (via X) Pinango’s inclusion in the deal, while Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Arden Zwelling (X link) reported Rivera’s inclusion.

Ricky Tiedemann To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Blue Jays pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday, manager John Schneider told reporters (including The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath).  It is a traditional TJ procedure rather than the increasingly popular brace procedure, and as a result Tiedemann will probably miss the entire 2025 season.

Tiedemann left a Triple-A outing on July 10 due to tightness in his left forearm, and had reportedly received multiple opinions about how to proceed with the injury.  Such a situation usually hints that surgery is being considered, and unfortunately for Tiedemann, he’ll now face the toughest setback yet of a pro career that has already been marked by injuries.

A third-round pick for Toronto in the 2021 draft, Tiedemann quickly got himself on the top-100 prospect radar with an impressive 2022 season that saw him go from A-ball to high-A to Double-A over the course of the year (totaling 78 2/3 innings).  He was limited to only 44 frames in 2023, however, due to biceps and shoulder injuries, though Tiedemann did make his Triple-A debut with a single start for Buffalo.  Calf and hamstring soreness slowed his work in Spring Training, and a bout of ulnar nerve inflammation sidelined him on Buffalo’s injured list earlier this season, which now looks like a precursor to his Tommy John surgery.  Tiedemann has thrown 17 1/3 innings spread over three minor league levels in 2024, with a 5.19 ERA and an unpalatable 19.28% walk rate.

All told, Tiedemann has thrown only 140 minor league innings over three professional seasons, plus 18 more frames in the 2023 Arizona Fall League.  He’ll only nominally add to that total during whatever minor league rehab work comes in 2025, and a Major League debut that at one point seemed likely in 2023 has now almost surely been pushed back to 2026.

Tiedemann doesn’t turn 22 until next month so youth is on his side, and he can certainly still be viewed as a key piece of the Blue Jays’ future.  But obviously, it is anyone’s guess as to how the southpaw will bounce back after essentially two lost seasons of development, not to mention how his elbow may or may not hold up in the aftermath of a TJ procedure.  Though Tiedemann has yet to reach the big leagues, there are some comparisons here to another highly-touted Jays pitching prospect in Nate Pearson, who has been used exclusively as a reliever in the last two seasons due to health concerns.  (Ironically, Pearson’s Jays tenure ended today when he was dealt to the Cubs.)

Losing Tiedemann to major UCL surgery only adds to the Blue Jays’ all-around disappointment of a 2024 season.  Expecting to contend and reach the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, Toronto has instead sputtered to a 47-56 record, and only five teams have a worse winning percentage than the Jays’ .456 mark.  The trades of Pearson and Yimi Garcia have signaled that a retool is coming at the trade deadline, and while the team reportedly still plans to reload for another shot at contention in 2025, plenty of questions have to be asked about whether this strategy is viable, or if Schneider or GM Ross Atkins are the people best fit to get Toronto back to winning baseball.

The lack of minor league support is one strike against the Jays’ reload plans, as the club hasn’t been able to generate much in the way of in-house talent.  Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez are the only two Blue Jays players in MLB Pipeline’s current top 100 prospects list, and Tiedemann is now slated for TJ surgery while Martinez is serving an 80-game PED suspension.

Mariners Acquire Yimi Garcia

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Less than 24 hours after beefing up their lineup with the acquisition of Randy Arozarena, the Mariners have bolstered their bullpen by acquiring right-hander Yimi Garcia from the Blue Jays. Outfielder Jonatan Clase and minor league catcher Jacob Sharp are going from Seattle to Toronto in return.

Garcia, 34 next month, is in his third season with the Jays. He originally signed a two-year, $11MM contract with Toronto, but he’s beefed up that contract through his performance. Garcia pitched enough games to vest a $6MM option for the current season and also picked up an additional $1MM of incentives in years one and two of the contract, ultimately turning it into a three-year, $18MM pact. He’s a rental for the Jays who’ll be owed $2.1MM from now until season’s end. Garcia is a free agent thereafter.

Regarded as one of the better relief arms on this year’s market, Garcia will bolster a bullpen that looked like one of the strongest in the game heading into the season but has been hit with some notable injuries. Star setup man Matt Brash required Tommy John surgery that knocked him out for the season, while offseason trade acquisition Gregory Santos only recently made his team debut after suffering a significant lat strain in spring training. The right-hander was removed from his most recent appearance with a knee issue. Perhaps that pushed the Mariners to make this move, but Santos has not yet been placed on the injured list, nor has the team announced a substantial injury for the right-hander.

Seattle has spent much of the season patching things together on the bridge to manager Scott Servais’ excellent closer, Andres Munoz. Now, if Santos’ knee injury proves minor they could go from a piecemeal approach to a pair of high-octane setup men in a matter of weeks.

Garcia has been a force this year, sporting a career-high 96.7 mph average fastball en route to a mammoth 36.5% strikeout rate that tops his prior career-high by nearly five percentage points. He’s coupled that with a strong 7% walk rate.

Over the past two seasons, Garcia has notably cut back on the usage of that fastball and significantly upped his curveball usage, helping to contribute to the rise in punchouts. He’s sitting on an excellent 2.70 ERA that metrics like FIP (2.64) and SIERA (2.30) suggest could undersell his performance to date. Garcia has gone 5-for-6 in save opportunities (bringing his career total to 26) and picked up 10 holds this year as well. He only just returned from a monthlong stay on the injured list due to a bout of elbow neuritis (nerve inflammation), but Garcia has tossed two innings, faced eight batters and punched out five of them while averaging 96.6 mph on his fastball; the elbow doesn’t seem to be bothering him.

In return for Garcia, the Jays will add a big league-ready outfielder with a full six seasons of club control: Clase. The 22-year-old speedster made his big league debut with the M’s earlier this season and .195/.233/.220 slash in a tiny sample of 44 plate appearances. That’s a small enough number of plate appearances at a young enough age that it’s not worth reading into; Clase has had a nice season in Triple-A Tacoma this year, slashing .274/.373/.483 with 10 homers, 11 doubles, four triples and 26 steals in 35 attempts. His 25.7% strikeout rate there is higher than one would prefer for a player who’s considered to have below-average power, but Clase has also walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances.

This year’s 26 steals are a nice mark but they don’t tell the full tale of Clase’s speed. Baseball America pegs him as a 70-grade runner (on the 20-80 scale), while FanGraphs lists him as a true 80-grade burner. His 29.6 ft/sec average sprint speed this season (as measured by Statcast) ranks in the 97th percentile of MLB players. Clase swiped a whopping 79 bases (94 attempts) in just 129 games between High-A and Double-A last year — all while hitting .242/.353/.449.

For a Jays club that’ll see Kevin Kiermaier retire at season’s end, he stands as a potential everyday player as soon as 2025 … if he can make enough quality contact to keep himself in the lineup. The Blue Jays have one of the game’s best outfield defenders in Daulton Varsho, who could slide to center in place of Kiermaier next year, but Clase will have a chance to win an everyday role regardless of whether it’s in left or center. Despite all his speed, Clase isn’t regarded as the same level of defender as Varsho, though he’s young enough that he could of course improve his reads, jumps and routes in the years ahead.

Sharp, 22, was Seattle’s 17th-round pick just last summer. The former UNLV backstop is a right-handed hitter who’s spent the season thus far in Class-A, hitting .255/.339/.435 (105 wRC+). He’s a bit old for that level, but it’s still hard to overlook his eye-catching bat-to-ball skills. Sharp has struck out in only 9.9% of his plate appearances — a mark that’s barely higher than his 9.4% walk rate. He’s thrown out 21% of runners who’ve attempted to steal against him since being drafted. He’s a longer-term play than Clase, but a catcher with that type of feel for contact makes for an interesting add to the lower levels of the farm.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Mariners were acquiring Garcia and sending Clase to Toronto. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith first reported Sharp’s inclusion in the trade.

The Blue Jays Shouldn’t Be Resisting A Reset

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The 2024 season clearly hasn't gone the way the Blue Jays hoped. Expected to contend for a Wild Card spot at the very least, the Jays have instead encountered notable injuries (Jordan Romano, Alek Manoah) and seen career-worst performances from several key players (Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier). Top prospect Orelvis Martinez received an 80-game PED suspension. Very, very little has gone well in Toronto -- as evidenced by their 46-56 record and -82 run differential.

Unsurprisingly, Toronto has become a deadline seller. The front office reportedly isn't interested in any kind of large-scale rebuild, however, and is focused on primarily selling off rental assets. Reliever Yimi Garcia has already been traded to the Mariners. Starter Yusei Kikuchi and the aforementioned Turner are among the candidates to change hands. That'll bring back some modest returns in terms of prospects. It's also not sufficient for a team in Toronto's situation.

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Blue Jays Plan To Keep Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman

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The Blue Jays enter next week’s trade deadline as clear sellers, but virtually all of the focus thus far has been on the rental players they can offer to other teams. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, relievers Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards, and catcher Danny Jansen are all free agents at season’s end and thus all candidates to change hands. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Toronto hasn’t changed its stance on hoping to contend in 2025 and as such has not been shopping either Chris Bassitt (signed through 2025) or Kevin Gausman (through 2026). As is the case with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette (both under club control through 2025), that pair of arms is generally expected to stay put.

At least with regard to Bassitt, it’s mildly surprising that the Jays aren’t more strongly contemplating a trade. The veteran righty is in year two of a three-year, $63MM contract and pitching fairly well — but it’s also his age-35 campaign. He’ll pitch all of next year at 36. Generally, when teams sign a free agent to a multi-year deal, they’re more interested in the earlier seasons of the deal and consider the final year(s) to be the cost of doing business. Toronto doesn’t have much pitching depth, so they’d need to replace Bassitt either via free agency or trade, but one would think that next year’s $21MM salary could be reallocated to a younger arm. Beyond that, Bassitt could of course net the Jays some young talent as well.

Bassitt, who’s pitching as this is being written, entered play Thursday with a 3.71 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 41.2% grounder rate. He’s started 20 games and tossed 114 innings — an average of just over 5 2/3 innings per appearance. He’s still a clearly above-average starter, but some clubs might take this opportunity to try to add some young talent, clear some payroll off the following season’s books and reinvest that notable salary elsewhere. (The Cubs, for instance, have considered the possibility of taking that approach with Jameson Taillon.)

It’s a similar story with Gausman, although at 33 years of age with two extra years to go and in the midst of a down season, a trade involving him might not be so straightforward. Gausman’s 93.9 mph average fastball is down from last year’s 94.7 mph and from 2022’s 95 mph. His 22.9% strikeout rate is still a solid mark, but it’s way down from last year’s 31.1% clip. Ditto his 6.3% walk rate, which is slightly improved over last year’s 7.2% mark but nowhere close to his 3.9% rate from 2022.

Gausman is missing fewer bats than usual and giving up an uncharacteristic level of loud contact. This year’s 90.2 mph average exit velocity and 11.4% barrel rate are both career-worst marks, while Gausman’s 1.30 HR/9 is his worst mark since the juiced ball season in 2019. Gausman is earning $24MM this season and $23MM in each of the next two years. He’ll have a combined $54MM still owed to him as of the trade deadline.

Also signed through the 2025 season is reliever Chad Green, whom the Jays will pay $10.5MM next year. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests that the Yankees are interested in a reunion, citing Green’s low ERA and status as a popular teammate in New York as part of the rationale.

It’d frankly be something of a surprise if the Yankees were interested in going down that road, however. Green’s 1.82 ERA is impressive, but the right-hander will also turn 34 next May. He’s sitting on a career-low 22.1% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate that, while solid, is the second-highest of his career. This season’s 95.3 mph average fastball is the second-lowest of his career, and Green is yielding a woeful 92.7 mph average exit velocity and 48.7% hard-hit rate — both among the worst marks in baseball.

Green’s pristine earned run average is largely a function of two things: a .192 average on balls in play that stands as the tenth-lowest in baseball among the 441 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched and a 100% strand rate. Green hasn’t allowed a single man he’s put on base to come around and score thus far. Neither of those marks are sustainable — particularly not when nearly half his batted balls are leaving the plate at 95 mph or more.

On top of all that, the Yankees are in the top tier of luxury penalization. They’d owe a 110% tax on top of Green’s salary. He’d cost them more than $7MM to rent for the remainder of the current season, and assuming they end up back in the top tax bracket next season, Green’s final year of his contract would cost the Yankees an outlandish $22.05MM. Perhaps if the Blue Jays agreed to pay down the vast majority of his contract or take back an undesirable pact, New York would indeed welcome the opportunity to bring back a popular teammate. That said, Green’s underlying numbers and the Yankees’ luxury-tax status make it hard to see how a reunion between the two parties would be realistic.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Kevin Kiermaier To Retire After 2024

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Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier is planning to retire after the current season, he tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “This is it, 2024 is it for me,” Kiermaier said today. “This next week will be very interesting (in terms of a potential trade). But this will be my last year playing. I’m going to give it my all the rest of the year regardless of what situation I’m in. But my body is talking to me now more than ever.”

Kevin KiermaierKiermaier, now 34, began his career in fairly humble fashion. The Rays selected him in the 31st round in 2010, a portion of the draft that no longer exists, and gave him a $75K signing bonus. He was up in the majors by 2013 and quickly drew attention with his hard-nosed style of play, running the bases aggressively while also crashing his body into walls and the ground in order to make highlight reel catches.

The reckless abandon that he had for his own health was simultaneously his greatest asset and also the thing that most frequently held him back. He has been known as one of the best defenders of the most recent era of baseball while also often missing time due to injuries.

By the end of the 2016 season, he had appeared in 365 games for the Rays. He hit 32 home runs in that time and slashed .258/.313/.425 for a wRC+ of 105. He also stole 44 bases in that stretch and received some of the strongest defensive grades in the league.

Having established himself as a solid piece of the Rays’ roster, the two sides agreed to an extension going into 2017. Kiermaier had qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player and still had four years of club control remaining at that time. The deal was a six-year pact with a $53.5MM guarantee and a $13MM club option for 2023 that included a $2.5MM buyout.

Over the life of that deal, Kiermaier continued contributing in roughly the same way that he had before. He was solid though not elite at the plate while stealing bases and providing superlative defense, though the injury concerns would mount over time. From 2017 to 2022, the six guaranteed years of his extension with the Rays, he never once reached 130 games played in a season and he only hit the 100-game mark twice. One of those years was the shortened 2020 campaign but Kiermaier spent time on the injured list due to a right hip fracture, a torn ligament in right thumb, a left thumb sprain and a left wrist sprain.

In 2022, he dealt with a torn labrum in his left hip that ultimately required season-ending surgery in July. That led the Rays to go for the $2.5MM buyout instead of picking up his $13MM club option, sending him to free agency for the first time in his career.

He was able to land a one-year, $9MM deal with the Blue Jays and then engineered a solid bounceback campaign. He slashed .265/.322/.419 for a wRC+ of 104, stole 14 bases and continued to provide his customary excellent glovework. He did go on the injured list once, suffering a right elbow laceration crashing into the outfield wall attempting to make a catch, but got into 129 games for the Jays.

He re-signed with the Jays on another one-year deal, this time securing a $10.5MM guarantee, but his results have fallen off significantly here in 2024. He did go on the IL once due to left hip flexor inflammation, returning after a minimum stay. In his 77 games for the Jays this year, he’s hit just .195/.239/.314 for a wRC+ of 55.

“The way I reflect on it, the product I put on the field now still can be good, but the effort it takes to get it to what I’ve been used to all those years, with my speed and defense and arm and everything, it’s tough,” he said to Topkin today. “I knew this year was going to be tough just with how I felt last year, and I know as the years go by it’s going to get tougher and tougher. I have my third kid coming in December, and it’s time for me to be a dad and let my body recover.” He continued: “I’m very proud and very happy,” Kiermaier said, “and it’s just been the best journey I could ever ask for. … It’s been incredible.”

Though retirement is just over the horizon, Kiermaier still has the 2024 season to get through and it remains to be seen where he will finish his career. The Jays are 45-55 at the moment and ten games back of a playoff spot, making them clear sellers prior to the July 30 trade deadline. Even before announcing his upcoming retirement, Kiermaier was a logical trade candidate as an impending free agent.

However, his value is at a low ebb, given his salary and struggles at the plate this year. A couple of weeks ago, the Jays placed him on waivers in the hopes that some other club would take the contract off their hands but they all passed. Despite clearing waivers, Kiermaier wasn’t removed from Toronto’s roster and could still be traded in the next week, though the Jays would have to eat some of his remaining salary to facilitate a deal. Despite the tepid offense this year, Kiermaier’s defensive grades are still strong and the Reds are one club that reportedly has some interest in him.

He will have a few more months to add to his career totals but has thus far played in 1,120 major league games with 890 hits. That includes 94 home runs, 59 triples and 167 doubles. He has scored 491 runs, driven in 370 and stolen 131 bases.

But he will of course be most remembered for that superb defense. From 2014 to the present, he has accrued 159 Defensive Runs Saved as a center fielder so far. That’s the most of any player in baseball at any position and doesn’t even include the 13 DRS he had in right field prior to establishing himself as Tampa’s regular in center. His 88 Outs Above Average in center that time frame are tops among outfielders and behind only infielders Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed and Nolan Arenado. (His time as a right fielder predated the invention of Outs Above Average.)

We at MLBTR salute Kiermaier on a fine career and wish him luck in the remainder of his playing career as well as his post-playing days.

Twins Reportedly Working With Payroll Limitations At Trade Deadline

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The Twins are 55-44 and currently in possession of one of the American League Wild Card spots, as well as sitting just four games back of the Guardians in the Central division. That should put them in clear buyer position ahead of next week’s trade deadline but Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that they might have to walk an “add-and-subtract” tightrope due to financial limitations. Per the report, the Twins would have to move out some money if they were able to acquire any player with a notable salary.

Last year, the Twins broke a notable streak, winning their first playoff game since 2004. Though their season was eventually ended by the Astros in the Division Series, it was a relative high note for the franchise. But any optimism for the 2024 season quickly hit an obstacle.

President of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters in early November, just days into the offseason, that the payroll would be going down. That was seemingly in connection to the club’s TV revenue situation. The club reportedly received $54MM from Diamond Sports Group in 2023 but that company has been in the process of going bankrupt for a while, casting plenty of uncertainty about how things will play out going forward. The Twins and Diamond agreed to a new deal in February of 2024 but it was only a one-year pact and reportedly with reduced fees coming to the club

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Twins reached a new franchise high in 2023 with an Opening Day payroll of $154MM. That dropped to $127MM here in 2024 and it seems there’s not much wiggle room to go much higher than that. It’s not clear if the club is in such a tight spot that they can only consider revenue-neutral trades or if they have the ability to take on a small amount of money, but it seems like the budget will have to be front of mind for the club as they navigate the deadline.

If the scenario does come to pass where they need to move money out to bring some in, they would have some options. Manuel Margot might be somewhat expendable in a fairly crowded position player mix and he’s making $10MM this year, though the Twins are only covering $4MM of that after acquiring him from the Dodgers in February. By deadline time, there will be around $1.3MM of that left to be paid out.

Max Kepler is making $10MM and is an impending free agent but is playing every day and in the middle of the lineup. Ditto for Carlos Santana and his $5.25MM salary. Moving either of those two would be a hit to the club’s lineup, though perhaps they feel they have enough internal position players to make up for the lost production. Infielders Royce Lewis and José Miranda are each on the injured list but nearing returns. That could perhaps push Brooks Lee, who has been covering third base lately, to second base. That could theoretically nudge Edouard Julien from second to first base to supplant Santana. Willi Castro, who has been covering shortstop with Carlos Correa also on the IL, could wind up in the outfield if Lewis or Lee covers short. Trevor Larnach has been the club’s regular designated hitter lately but he could perhaps take more outfield time if that crowded infield spills into the DH slot.

Christian Vázquez is in the second season of a three-year, $30MM deal and is currently one of three catchers on the roster alongside Ryan Jeffers and Jair Camargo. The Twins would likely be open to moving Vázquez and had some trade talks regarding him in the offseason but his performance has been declining and the club would likely have to include some prospects in order to get someone to absorb that money. Kyle Farmer is making $6.05MM this year and has a $250K buyout on a mutual option for 2025 but he’s currently on the injured list. Caleb Thielbar has a $3.225MM salary and is an impending free agent but he has a 5.79 ERA this year. Anthony DeSclafani is making $12MM this year but the Mariners agreed to cover $8MM of that as part of the trade that sent him to Minnesota. He’s done for the year but the Twins could theoretically send a prospect or two to another team in exchange for that club paying the remainder of what they owe DeSclafani.

There are plenty of moving parts there and the Twins will ultimately be making decisions based on what kind of offers are coming their way from other clubs, as well as the health or lack thereof among the players currently on the roster. Ideally, a club in a playoff spot would just be looking to add and not have to play this kind of seven-dimensional chess, but the financial situation in Minnesota might make it necessary.

As to what they will be looking to add, Falvey confirmed that the club is looking for pitching, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. That aligns with previous reporting from Dan Hayes of The Athletic that the club would be looking to bolster its starting staff, perhaps by taking on rentals. Hayes floated Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays as a possible target and Nightengale reports today that the Twins have shown “at least preliminary interest” in him.

Kikuchi signed a three-year deal with the Jays going into 2022 and is now a few months from returning to free agency. The $36MM guarantee was frontloaded, so the lefty made $16MM in the first season followed by successive $10MM salaries in the final two years. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.3MM left to be paid out.

That’s not a massive sum by baseball standards but if it’s too rich for the Twins, they could always ask the Jays to keep most of that money on their books. Such an arrangement would require the Twins to part with more prospect capital but that might be the way they have to operate if they don’t have financial wiggle room. It’s unclear if the Jays are going to be focused on adding talent or dipping below the luxury tax, but they’re ten games back of a playoff spot and looking to trade their rental players.

If the two sides can work out those finer details, Kikuchi makes plenty of sense for the Twins. They’ve lost DeSclafani for the year and Chris Paddack is on the injured list due to a right arm issue for the second time this summer. David Festa and Louie Varland have struggled at the major league level and are currently on optional assignment.

The club still has a decent foursome in Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, but there’s also sense in adding to that group as they need a fifth starter and an injury can also change the calculus at any moment.

Kikuchi’s results have been up and down but he’s having a strong season in the aggregate. He’s thrown 111 innings for the Jays here in 2024 with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He has a 4.54 ERA but at least part of that appears to be due to a .334 batting average on balls in play. His 3.58 FIP and 3.41 SIERA suggest he’s actually been far better than his ERA would suggest. Most of those numbers are roughly in line with his 2023 season, wherein he posted a 3.86 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. His .314 BABIP was closer to league average last year and he had a 4.12 FIP and 3.86 SIERA.

Reds Notes: Suter, Friedl, Kiermaier

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The Reds announced earlier today that they’ve placed left-hander Brent Suter on the 15-day IL due to a partial tear of his left teres major muscle. As noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the club had at least some concern that the injury would prove serious enough that Suter would be out for the remainder of the 2024 campaign. Fortunately, Suter himself told reporters (including those at Bally Sports Cincinnati) that his current timeline is not quite that bleak. The lefty’s expected shutdown time is between four and six weeks, though he’ll of course have to build back up to game-ready form after that.

While that timeline leaves the door open for Suter to return sometime in September, the news is nonetheless a major blow to the Reds’ relief corps. The bullpen has been a major strength for Cincinnati this year, as the club’s 3.44 collective bullpen ERA is the sixth-best figure in the majors while their 3.65 FIP ranks seventh. Suter has been a huge part of that success as the 34-year-old has posted a solid 3.68 ERA in a whopping 51 1/3 innings of work this year. That means Suter has accounted for just under 15% of the total innings thrown by the Reds bullpen this year, an innings total that leads the team.

With both Suter and right-hander Carson Spiers having recently hit the IL in Cincinnati, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club pursue bullpen reinforcements in the coming weeks. Reds brass indicated earlier this month they had not yet committed to a strategy for the trade deadline this year, though it’s worth noting that the club did swing a trade for outfielder Austin Slater just days after those comments, suggesting an openness to adding to the big league roster on at least some level. A look at MLBTR’s Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline reveals a number of interesting relief arms available, ranging from star A’s rookie Mason Miller to White Sox reclamation project Michael Kopech.

The Slater deal isn’t the only indication that the Reds could be looking to add this summer. According to Wittenmyer, the club “touched base” regarding Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier when the club put him on waivers earlier this month, though of course no deal has come together to this point. Kiermaier would offer the Reds a quality defensive center fielder who could act as a lefty platoon option for right-handed bats Slater and Stuart Fairchild, although it’s worth noting that Kiermaier has struggled badly (53 wRC+) at the plate this year. A stronger offensive fit Wittenmyer suggests for the Reds would be Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas, though he cautions that such a fit would depend on the price of acquiring 28-year-old.

While the Reds’ dearth of quality options in the outfield makes it an easily identifiable place where the club could improve its stock this summer, they may be on the verge of adding impact to the outfield mix internally. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, center fielder TJ Friedl is slated to head out for a minor league rehab assignment tomorrow with the hope of returning to the lineup in Cincinnati for this weekend’s series against the Rays. Friedl has been limited to just 26 games by injuries this year but is only one season removed from a 4-win campaign in 2023 where he posted a strong 116 wRC+ while slugging 18 home runs, stealing 27 bases, and playing strong defense in center across 138 games. That 20/30 potential in center field is tantalizing, and it’s easy to see how Friedl could help to transform the club’s outfield mix if he’s finally healthy after dealing with a fractured wrist and a hamstring strain this year.

Bo Bichette To Miss “Multiple Weeks” Due To Calf Strain

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5:05pm: Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) this evening that an MRI revealed a “moderate” calf strain for Bichette and that he will be sidelined for “multiple weeks” due to the issue.

10:57am: Bo Bichette left yesterday’s game due to a right calf strain, and it comes as no surprise that the Blue Jays have now placed the shortstop on the 10-day injured list.  Infielder Addison Barger has been called up from Triple-A to take Bichette’s spot on the active roster.

Bichette broke out of the batter’s box after lining out to right field at the end of the sixth inning, but immediately came up limping after a few steps.  Last night’s injury was the latest occurrence in what has been a collection of calf injuries for Bichette over the last month, as he spent a minimal 10-day stint on the IL with another strain to his right calf in June.  He also left Toronto’s game on July 10 with what was described as a right calf fascia strain, though with the All-Star break looming, the Jays opted to not place Bichette on the IL again, hoping that the time off would allow him to heal up.

Unfortunately, Bichette now again finds himself sidelined, and likely for well beyond a 10-day minimum.  Blue Jays manager John Schneider should soon update media on the outcome of Bichette’s MRI, yet even if the MRI was clean, the recurring nature of this calf injury probably means the Jays will opt on the side of caution in giving Bichette plenty of time to fully overcome this issue.  This almost surely means that Bichette will still be on the injured list when the trade deadline hits on July 30, all but eliminating the possibility that Toronto could part ways with the former All-Star.

Though it isn’t unheard of for teams to still make offers for injured players if an injury appears to be fairly minor in nature, two calf injuries for Bichette in a month’s time would likely give pause to any potential suitor.  From the Jays’ perspective, they’re not going to accept a diminished trade package for a player who (if healthy) is one of their strongest trade chips.  Even as it looks more and more apparent that Toronto will be deadline sellers, the team reportedly is still planning to contend in 2025, so their July 30 moves might be limited to pending free agents rather than longer-term core pieces.

Even beyond Bichette’s injuries, his trade value has been lowered by an unexpectedly disastrous 2024 season.  Bichette is hitting .222/.275/.320 with four home runs over 331 plate appearances, and his 69 wRC+ is the third-lowest among all qualified hitters in baseball.  Even if a low .266 BABIP and a big gap between his wOBA (.264) and his xwOBA (.306) count as some misfortune, Bichette’s power numbers have absolutely cratered from his career norms.  His .098 Isolated Power number is almost half the .187 ISO he posted from 2019-23, and his traditionally strong barrels and barrel rates are both well under the league average in 2024.

It is also worth noting that this isn’t entirely a one-year trend for Bichette.  His strong 2023 season sputtered to an end thanks to a pair of IL stints in the second half, as Bichette missed time to patellar tendinitis in his right knee and then a right quad strain.  Bichette’s first IL stint began on August 1, 2023, and he hit only .254/.292/.402 over his final 130 PA of the 2023 season.

With almost a full year of sample size, it is clear that Bichette simply hasn’t been right since that initial bout of tendinitis last August, and it is an additional concern that all of these injuries have come to his right leg specifically.  If Bichette is facing a fairly lengthy (say, a month or so) stay on the injured list anyway with his latest calf problem, it isn’t out of the question that the Blue Jays might just shut him down to get him ready for 2025, since the team won’t be in contention for the remainder of this year.

If the Jays’ next two months indeed become an information-gathering session for 2025, one silver lining to Bichette’s absence could be more playing time for Leo Jimenez at shortstop.  Jimenez has hit and fielded well in his small nine-game sample size as a big leaguer, and could become a shortstop of the future if Bichette is traded at some point, or if he leaves in free agency following the 2025 season.

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