Braves Rumors

Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans

By Dylan A. Chase | December 28, 2019 at 8:18pm CDT

The Braves are unlikely to “aggressively” pursue a Nolan Arenado trade as long as incumbent starter Josh Donaldson remains on the market, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported on Saturday citing unnamed sources (link).

Yesterday, our own Steve Adams explored in detail the many obstacles impeding a potential Atlanta-Arenado connection. First, there is the $234MM remaining on the third baseman’s contract; the addition of that sum would push Atlanta’s payroll into historic heights moving forward, and the club’s lack of serious engagement on Anthony Rendon could signal that the Braves aren’t true players at such a price tag. Then, there are the logistical issues of Arenado’s no-trade clause, his ability to opt-out after 2021, and the fact that his contract is set to run through his age-35 season. Donaldson, often positioned as being a bit “old” for a premium free-agent, would only be 37 at the end of his reportedly sought-after four-year deal. All of this, of course, is before considering any potential prospect capital Atlanta may have to surrender in acquiring the Colorado cornerstone.

Today’s note would seem to lend credence to the idea that the Braves may simply prefer spending payroll capital in acquiring Donaldson. In an offseason that has seen Donaldson court a four-year contract and Arenado’s name enter the rumor mill, the two superstar third baggers have become more or less linked. While Kris Bryant has also loomed as a speculative trade fit for teams in need at the hot corner, a few clubs have possibly spent the last several weeks weighing the relative merits of acquiring either Donaldson or Arenado. For the moment, this report indicates that Atlanta has a clear order of preference in terms of which scenario they prefer at third, with Morosi suggesting that the team won’t actively court Arenado unless Donaldson signs elsewhere—making the former a rather premium “plan B”.

Still, Morosi said only that the team will not “aggressively” pursue Arenado, so the door remains open, in theory. As far as potential trade partners for the Rockies superstar go, few clubs could match up with the Braves in terms of young prospect capital. When your team is built around Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, youngsters like Austin Riley, Drew Waters, and Cristian Pache can seem like downright luxuries. In Riley’s case, in particular, it’s hard to ignore that Atlanta seems rather intent on filling the third base spot where he would figure to offer the most long-term value–even if that’s just personal conjecture.

Braves Have Gauged Asking Price On Nolan Arenado

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2019 at 9:05am CDT

The Braves are among the teams that have inquired with the Rockies about a potential Nolan Arenado trade, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Braves fans should pump the brakes before running too wild with scenarios just yet, though. It stands to reason that the majority of contending clubs have at least gauged the asking price — front offices wouldn’t be doing their jobs if they didn’t at least explore even a fringe chance at adding a superstar-caliber player — and Morosi notes that there haven’t been any recent discussions between the two teams.

Frankly, it seems a stretch to imagine that the Braves would take on Arenado and the whopping seven years and $234MM remaining on his contract. Atlanta’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll came back in 2017 ($122.6MM), but they’re already projected to top that by $15MM or more. Add in a $35MM salary for Arenado in 2020, and the Braves would be shattering their previous spending thresholds by $50MM or more. Even if the Rockies were willing to include cash in the deal and/or take another contract back in exchange, adding Arenado would demolish payroll precedents in Atlanta.

Beyond that, Arenado is only about 10 months younger than Anthony Rendon, whose seven-year $245MM deal closely resembles what’s left on Arenado’s contract, and the Braves were never serious bidders for Rendon. Numerous reports have also indicated Atlanta’s reluctance to offer Josh Donaldson a fourth guaranteed year at a lower annual rate than either Arenado or Rendon is earning. It’s true that a four-year deal would run through Donaldson’s age-37 season, whereas Arenado is “only” signed through age 35, but the discrepancy is nonetheless notable.

When exploring any Arenado trade scenarios, it’s also worth emphasizing his full no-trade clause and the fact that an acquiring team will be wary of the opt-out provision in his contract. A perennial MVP candidate, Arenado can walk away from the final five years and $164MM of his contract and enter the open market. He’d be leaving a $32.8MM annual salary on the table to do so, but he’d be opting out in advance of only his age-31 season in 2022. It’s not out of the question that he could land a six- or even a seven-year deal in free agency if he continues on as an elite performer. And if he unexpectedly begins to decline sooner than that, an acquiring team would then be stuck paying nearly $33MM per season for said decline phase.

The Braves have a deep farm system that is rich in pitching prospects and position players alike, so they have the young talent to acquire virtually any player who is made available by another team. Atlanta would also have an obvious hole at third base if Donaldson signs elsewhere. Be that as it may, acquiring Arenado would require heretofore unseen levels of spending from ownership and would surely cost the Braves a sizable amount of young talent as well. If Donaldson departs, the Braves would (speculatively) make a very sensible trade partner for the Cubs and Kris Bryant, but it’s hard to see Arenado suiting up at SunTrust Park in 2020.

Remaining Needs: NL East

By Jeff Todd | December 26, 2019 at 1:26pm CDT

Quite a few of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have already signed, though there are still a host of players available on the open market. We’ve seen somewhat less action on the trade market, which still features a number of stars and other useful targets.

Those links provide lots of info on the supply side. But what about demand? We’ll run through each division to identify the biggest-remaining needs of each team.

Atlanta Braves [Offseason Outlook]

As they did last time around, the Braves sprinted out of the gates to address multiple key needs. But the club’s biggest question entering the winter — what to do about the departure of star third baseman Josh Donaldson — remains unanswered. It’s a good roster as-is, but the lineup would look a whole lot better with another big bat in the middle of it. If Donaldson can’t be retained, the Braves could look to the trade market at third base or pursue one of the remaining corner outfielders and re-shuffle their internal deck accordingly. The club seems quite settled otherwise but could still explore opportunistic rotation additions.

Miami Marlins [Offseason Outlook]

The Fish have spent the winter plugging in one-year veterans and jettisoning unwanted relievers. The idea was to create a mix that will improve the results a bit in the near term while simultaneously aiding the development of and avoiding undue pressure on young players. Much of that work is already done, but the team is reportedly still looking to add a power-hitting corner outfielder who’d supplement (or supplant?) recent minor-league signee Matt Kemp. Perusing the roster, it seems there’s also room to pick up a veteran pitcher or two to join the bullpen or perhaps the rotation. That’d become a clear priority in the event of a trade involving Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, or some other pitcher. Presumably, the club will continue to explore trade opportunities involving those and other players while keeping an eye on the waiver wire.

New York Mets [Offseason Outlook]

Aided by a renegotiation of the Yoenis Cespedes contract, the Mets have placed a series of expensive (a combined $25MM+) single-season bets on high-variance veteran pitchers. Having picked up two new starting-capable hurlers, a pair of bullpen pieces, and a part-time center fielder in Jake Marisnick, the New York org has already ticked the boxes it needed to.

So … why doesn’t it feel like GM Brodie Van Wagenen is finished? With a forthcoming ownership transition underscoring the need to win now, the club’s top baseball exec can’t afford to leave any stones unturned in his sophomore offseason. Installing a top-flight center fielder — Starling Marte looks like the best bet — would be at the top of the list, but the club can also explore blockbuster scenarios at other positions. It’s possible to imagine further improvements to the bench and bullpen mix, too. The Mets will be most keen to utilize blocked first baseman Dominic Smith as a trade chip — whether to bring back prospects, shed the Jed Lowrie contract, or deliver a different MLB piece — but younger big leaguers J.D. Davis and Steven Matz could also conceivably be dangled.

Philadelphia Phillies [Offseason Outlook]

The Phils landed two of MLBTR’s top dozen free agents, and they did so for lesser commitments than were necessary to secure quite a few other top players. That’s a nice start, but hardly sufficient to stand out from the other three contending teams in this division. Improving the bullpen remains an unfulfilled priority. While the rotation no longer stands out as a problem, it’s susceptible of being bettered. And the position-player mix doesn’t feel quite finished. The Phillies could choose to utilize Adam Haseley in center field and Scott Kingery at third base. But the lineup would look better with a newly installed regular for at least one of those positions, freeing Kingery to function as a super-sub and reducing the team’s reliance upon the still-unproven Haseley. It’s a tough scene in free agency unless the club reimposes itself in the market for Josh Donaldson. Creative trade exploration seems advisable. The Phils also still must figure out what to do with Odubel Herrera, who’ll be returning from a suspension.

Washington Nationals [Offseason Outlook]

Having finally completed a summit attempt, the Nats face new challenges in a repeat bid. Not unlike the Braves and Phillies, the D.C. roster would look much better with Josh Donaldson added in at the hot corner. If they miss on Donaldson, the Nats could be forced into some difficult and high-stakes trade talks. There’s an opening at second base as well — especially if the club intends to utilize the recently re-signed Howie Kendrick at first base, which is partially dependent upon its decision with regard to Ryan Zimmerman — which creates both need and opportunity.

Youngster Carter Kieboom could be cast into a big role, but the organization probably prefers to see him force his way up rather than relying on him out of the gates. It’s possible to imagine the addition of multiple veteran infielders from a large remaining pool, with a plan to mix and match and adapt over the course of the season. Any of the team’s internally developed reserve players could be supplanted over the next few months. Ditto the holdover fifth-starter and middle-relief options. Another rotation piece (if only for camp competition) and one or more relievers (preferably including a legit setup option) also remain on the list of needs for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, who’s overseeing a huge amount of roster turnover while trying to recover from a (literal and figurative) championship hangover.

NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Mets, Arenado, Hernandez

By Dylan A. Chase | December 21, 2019 at 10:30pm CDT

A fourth guaranteed year has been said to be the lynchpin in any potential deal for third baseman Josh Donaldson this winter, leaving interested teams in a precarious spot as they play chicken with the veteran’s representatives. The Braves, in particular, could be in something of a no-mans-land if they miss out on Donaldson, as they would lose their incumbent starter and potentially see a league rival (Nationals, Dodgers) strengthen their lineup at the same time. As David O’Brien of The Athletic sees it, the team’s two recourses in the event of a Donaldson departure may be the exploration of trades for either Kris Bryant of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Rockies—and neither of those options is entirely realistic in the writer’s eyes. For Bryant, his ongoing grievance with the Cubs adds a fair bit of uncertainty for any interested trade partner. While the Cubs are, as O’Brien puts it, “widely expected” to win that grievance hearing and maintain two years of control on Bryant, it’s not impossible that the tide could swing in Bryant’s favor and leave him with just one year left.

When it comes to Arenado, O’Brien seems merely skeptical that Atlanta would be willing to swallow a contract of that magnitude, considering that the $35MM annual salaries in Arenado’s deal would more than double the highest salary that Braves star Ronald Acuna will make in the final years of the eight-year, $100MM extension he signed in April. Then again, Donaldson has reportedly given the Braves the right of last refusal on any potential deal, so it may well be that Atlanta ends up viewing a four-year Donaldson deal as the most reasonable course of action. Given that Washington and Minnesota have reportedly made four-year offers already, this may be a case of a player waiting for his preferred team to blink.

NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Cubs, Bryant, Pirates, Reds

By Connor Byrne | December 20, 2019 at 11:45pm CDT

Third baseman Josh Donaldson, the No. 1 free agent left on the board, continues to contemplate his future. The Nationals, Twins, Dodgers and Braves (with whom he thrived in 2019) look like the front-runners for his services. All things being equal, though, it appears Donaldson would prefer to stay in Atlanta. The “belief” is Donaldson’s camp has promised the Braves he’ll let them make a final offer before he signs anywhere else, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The problem, as O’Brien notes, is that the Braves may not want to give Donaldson, 34, four guaranteed years. Meanwhile, Washington and Minnesota are reportedly open to doing so.

Nationals, Twins Reported To Be Most Aggressive On Josh Donaldson

By Jeff Todd | December 19, 2019 at 10:29pm CDT

DEC. 19: It’s “believed” the Nationals and Twins are willing to go to four years for Donaldson, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Dodgers and Braves are still in the hunt, per Rosenthal, though he notes both teams could be hesitant to go to the four-year length to land Donaldson.

DEC. 16: Ever since they watched star third baseman Anthony Rendon depart, the Nationals have been rumored to be pressing hard for Josh Donaldson as a replacement. The club’s willingness to spend appears to be driving the market for Donaldson, an older but still outstanding player in his own right.

Whether or not there’s a formal offer on the table isn’t known. But the Nats are “aggressive” in their pursuit of Donaldson, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Indeed, the team is prepared to bid upwards of $90MM on a four-year term, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

MLBTR had predicted a $25MM average annual value for Donaldson, but anticipated he would only be able to secure that over a three-year guarantee. All indications are that Donaldson will have lengthier offers to consider, though it remains to be seen whether he will get to nine-figure territory.

Donaldson more than made good on his one-year deal last winter with the Braves, who are among the other pursuers. He blistered the ball (50.0% hard-hit rate, 92.9 mph average exit velocity), drew a ton of walks (15.2% BB rate), and played great defense (especially in the eyes of DRS, which had him at +15 runs). It was a compelling campaign from a player who has already proven over multiple years that he’s capable of elite production, though teams have no doubt not forgotten that Donaldson is now 34 years of age and dealt with major leg injuries in the prior two seasons.

NL East Notes: Bumgarner, Ryu, Cespedes, Nationals, Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2019 at 8:43pm CDT

The Braves weren’t willing to go beyond a three-year contract for Madison Bumgarner, and “it seems highly doubtful” they would go to four years for Hyun-Jin Ryu, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. Atlanta’s interest in Ryu is something of a new development, but Bowman feels it could be more due diligence on the Braves’ part than anything else, in case Ryu’s market shifts within the two- to three-year range. Multiple teams have been linked to Ryu this offseason, though it remains unclear whether any club will be willing to stretch to four years for a hurler who will be 33 years old on Opening Day and possesses a lengthy injury history.

The latest from around the NL East…

Could Yoenis Cespedes be a trade chip? A deal seems unlikely, but MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that the Mets have received some trade interest in the outfielder in the wake of last week’s news that Cespedes’ salary has been reduced to less than $10MM, though with significant incentives that could make it worth $20MM (assuming Cespedes gets on the field at all in 2020, of course). Cespedes has a full no-trade clause, though DiComo speculates that Cespedes might welcome a change of scenery to a team that could offer him DH at-bats, or just to get away from “a team that successfully filed a grievance against him.” It could be that rival teams are open to absorbing Cespedes’ contract as a method of acquiring some younger talent from New York, similar to how the Giants recently took Zack Cozart’s salary off the Angels’ hands in order to land shortstop prospect Will Wilson, or how the Mets themselves are trying to attach a younger player to Jeurys Familia or Jed Lowrie in a trade.
The Nationals’ fifth starter competition is examined by Sam Fortier of the Washington Post, who reports that Erick Fedde has a minor league option remaining. This might not bode well for Fedde’s chances, as the Nats could send him down to Triple-A in favor of Austin Voth or Joe Ross, who are both out of options. That’s assuming, of course, that D.C. ends up going forward with one of these three in-house arms as the fifth starter. Fortier notes that the team was seemingly satisfied with this same trio last winter before signing Jeremy Hellickson prior to Spring Training, so it isn’t out of the question that the World Series champs could pursue another low-cost veteran before the offseason is out.
We haven’t heard much about David Phelps about this offseason, but Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer feels the right-hander would be a good (and relatively inexpensive) addition to the Phillies bullpen. After missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, Phelps had a solid comeback year in 2019, posting a 3.41 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 34 1/3 innings for the Cubs and Blue Jays. Phelps pitched under Phils manager Joe Girardi with the Yankees in 2012-14, and when asked about the reliever at the Winter Meetings, Girardi praised Phelps’ versatility, game preparation skills, and good numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters.

Quick Hits: Sign-Stealing Investigation Update, Padres, Myers, Hedges, Kluber, Braves, Culberson

By TC Zencka | December 14, 2019 at 12:35pm CDT

There seems little doubt now that the Astros participated in sign-stealing aided by a live feed from a centerfield camera. The Astros’ maintain their belief that actions at the time were “in line with industry standards,” per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. The newest sticking point is an insistence out of Houston that the camera in question was already in place and not purchased/installed specifically for the purpose of stealing signs. It may seem a bizarre place to draw a line in the sand – and on its own hardly exculpatory – but the installation of equipment does affect the breadth of involvement necessary to put their sign-stealing process in place. At least one witness claimed that many teams use a similar camera for the decoding of signs. Said the witness, “All we asked for was a live feed.” Astros’ hitting coach Alex Cintron played the part of antagonist as the conflict escalated between the Astros and Yankees during the ALCS, though as of right now, it’s unclear who might expect discipline beyond GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch. Regardless, it does seem that the investigation is progressing and disciple of some sort seems likely. Now, let’s get back to winter action and check in on a couple of clubs…

Count the San Diego Padres among those teams more focused on shedding contracts than adding them. GM A.J. Preller’s top priority right now is finding a taker for Wil Myers, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark. Myers is due $22.5MM per season for the next three with a $20MM team option for 2023 that comes with a $1MM buyout. That’s a steep payout for a 29-year-old corner outfielder/first baseman who put up just 96 wRC+ last season. The Padres are also looking to move catcher Austin Hedges, who is set to make roughly $2.9MM this year and has two more arbitration seasons remaining. For the second straight offseason, they continue to talk with the Indians about Corey Kluber, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, though a deal on that front before Spring Training is unlikely. They remain curious about Dallas Keuchel and Madison Bumgarner as well, but a deal for any top pitcher seems unlikely unless they find a taker for Myers – which in and of itself presents Preller with a sizable challenge.
Charlie Culberson had a couple of major league offers, but none significant enough to outweigh the appeal of returning to Atlanta, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The fanbase in Atlanta is quite fond of Culberson, a dirtdog and Atlanta native who plays all over the diamond for manager Brian Snitker. The minor league deal enables the Braves to utilize Culberson’s 40-man roster spot, while incentives in the deal give Culberson similar earning potential to what he’d seen in other offers. Outside of occasional pop, Culberson doesn’t offer a ton with the bat, but he’s a decent baserunner and plays everywhere on the diamond except catcher and centerfield. If nothing else, seeing Culberson return in a Braves uniform would be a heartwarming moment for fans after a brutal injury ended Culberson’s 2019. On a failed bunt attempt at Nats Park, Culberson took a Fernando Rodney fastball to the face that led to a fractured cheekbone.

Braves Re-Sign Charlie Culberson

By Jeff Todd | December 13, 2019 at 5:16pm CDT

The Braves announced that they have re-signed utilityman Charlie Culberson. It’s a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation for Spring Training. Culberson can earn at a $1MM rate in the majors, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Culberson, 30, played a big role for the Atlanta organization in its two consecutive NL East title years, though his 2019 season was limited by injury. He was non-tendered at the outset of the offseason. Culberson had projected to earn a $1.8MM salary.

The Braves enjoyed big output from Culberson in 2018, when he emerged as a fan favorite even as statistics-based skepticism abounded. In 2019, Culberson actually managed to repeat his hefty batting average on balls in play and maintain much of the power growth he showed in the prior campaign. But his plate discipline issues caught up to him, as his 30.6% strikeout and 4.2% walk rates resulted in a .294 OBP through 144 plate appearances.

Culberson will face an uphill path to making the big club out of camp, but he’s a trusted hand for the organization and represents desirable depth. The arrangement works for the local product as well; as David O’Brien of The Athletic points out, Culberson lives in the Atlanta area and no doubt likes the idea of playing his home games in Gwinnett in the event he isn’t doing so in Cobb County.

Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract

By Steve Adams | December 13, 2019 at 7:29am CDT

With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.

To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.

It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.

Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.

Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.

Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…

Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

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